Chiefs ML is the play.

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C-70 Blues

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Chiefs ML +110 2 Units

San Fran needs to establish their running game to set up the pass. KC can throw anytime in any situation. Kansas City holds the edge in coaching, the QB position and in the kicking department.

I will also make some in game wagers as the games progresses but nowhere near as many as Hunt does!
 
Who said it was easy? You have to have several factors in your favor just to gain a small edge.
 
Chiefs ML +110 2 Units

San Fran needs to establish their running game to set up the pass. KC can throw anytime in any situation. Kansas City holds the edge in coaching, the QB position and in the kicking department.

I will also make some in game wagers as the games progresses but nowhere near as many as Hunt does!

Good luck my dude. Should be a good one.
 
Chiefs ML +110 2 Units

San Fran needs to establish their running game to set up the pass. KC can throw anytime in any situation. Kansas City holds the edge in coaching, the QB position and in the kicking department.
False. They're (SF) dominant in both categories.
KC can throw anytime in any situation. Kansas City holds the edge in coaching, the QB position and in the kicking department.
Maybe coaching -we'll see. KC faced SF 4 years ago in the SB - but SF didnt have Purdy or McCaffrey, while KC had Mahomes and Hilll <-who is now with Miami..

Read the QB comparison below. Your quote is a stereotypical remark like so many believed that "teams have to run to set up the pass".
Thats true - only when teams are lacking in the passing game...which isn't the case with SF..


Here are some QB stats.
'No doubt that Mahomes is great, but look at the comparison numbers this year. Purdy has Mahomes beat in QB rating - TD's and Int's.
So when you say Mahomes can pass any time - you didn't bother to look at the true stats in contrast. So can Purdy.

If You flip the names to the stats below - everyone would load up on the Chiefs and the favorite would then be Mahomes by 2-3 points.
Instead - its Purdy - who is better this year. And this year is the only one that counts because those are the teams in THIS Years SB.

And Note that Purdy also ran for 3.7 yds per carry. Mahomes was better with 5.2..BUT Mahomes doesnt have McCaffrey, who was the league best RB. Therefore - Purdy doesn't NEED to run...
Im not going to say youre wrong - like you said to me...
But if I win - make sure to stop in and say so...
We both have ML bets.. I would have taken the points if I was on KC...
There wont be a tie.


Brock Purdy's NFL career stats​

Passing​

Rushing​

SeasonTeamGGSATTCOMPC/ATTYDSYATTLGTDINTRAT.ATTYDSAVGTD
2023-2024SF161644430869.442809.0763111113.0391443.72
2022-2023SF9517011467.113748.054134107.322130.61


Patrick Mahomes' NFL career stats​

Passing​

Rushing​

SeasonTeamGGSATTCOMPC/ATTYDSYATTLGTDINTRAT.ATTYDSAVGTD
2023-2024KC161659740167.241837.067271492.6753895.20
2022-2023KC171764843567.152508.0674112105.2613585.94
2021-2022KC171765843666.348397.075371398.5663815.82
2020-2021KC151558839066.347408.075386108.2623085.02
2019-2020KC141448431965.940318.083265105.3432185.12
2018-2019KC161658038366.050978.0895012113.8602724.52
2017-2018KC11352262.92848.0510176.47101.40
 
There's an old adage in football: You live by the come from behind victory, you die by the come from behind victory. The 9ers have had to make BB comebacks to reach the super bowl. I see this is as a tight game with SF holding a small lead in the 4th quarter until Mahomes leads a late TD drive to grab the trophy for the third time.
 
False. They're (SF) dominant in both categories.

Maybe coaching -we'll see. KC faced SF 4 years ago in the SB - but SF didnt have Purdy or McCaffrey, while KC had Mahomes and Hilll <-who is now with Miami..

Read the QB comparison below. Your quote is a stereotypical remark like so many believed that "teams have to run to set up the pass".
Thats true - only when teams are lacking in the passing game...which isn't the case with SF..


Here are some QB stats.
'No doubt that Mahomes is great, but look at the comparison numbers this year. Purdy has Mahomes beat in QB rating - TD's and Int's.
So when you say Mahomes can pass any time - you didn't bother to look at the true stats in contrast. So can Purdy.

If You flip the names to the stats below - everyone would load up on the Chiefs and the favorite would then be Mahomes by 2-3 points.
Instead - its Purdy - who is better this year. And this year is the only one that counts because those are the teams in THIS Years SB.

And Note that Purdy also ran for 3.7 yds per carry. Mahomes was better with 5.2..BUT Mahomes doesnt have McCaffrey, who was the league best RB. Therefore - Purdy doesn't NEED to run...
Im not going to say youre wrong - like you said to me...
But if I win - make sure to stop in and say so...
We both have ML bets.. I would have taken the points if I was on KC...
There wont be a tie.


Brock Purdy's NFL career stats​

SeasonTeamGGSATTCOMPC/ATTYDSYATTLGTDINTRAT.ATTYDSAVGTD

Passing​

Rushing​

2023-2024SF161644430869.442809.0763111113.0391443.72
2022-2023SF9517011467.113748.054134107.322130.61


Patrick Mahomes' NFL career stats​

SeasonTeamGGSATTCOMPC/ATTYDSYATTLGTDINTRAT.ATTYDSAVGTD

Passing​

Rushing​

2023-2024KC161659740167.241837.067271492.6753895.20
2022-2023KC171764843567.152508.0674112105.2613585.94
2021-2022KC171765843666.348397.075371398.5663815.82
2020-2021KC151558839066.347408.075386108.2623085.02
2019-2020KC141448431965.940318.083265105.3432185.12
2018-2019KC161658038366.050978.0895012113.8602724.52
2017-2018KC11352262.92848.0510176.47101.40
You are stuck on regular season stats for some reason. This is the playoffs, things are different now.
 
There's an old adage in football: You live by the come from behind victory, you die by the come from behind victory. The 9ers have had to make BB comebacks to reach the super bowl. I see this is as a tight game with SF holding a small lead in the 4th quarter until Mahomes leads a late TD drive to grab the trophy for the third time.
Maybe in your mind, but I'll bet the Niners arent hearing that or they should just go home.. Youre bringing up adage's that never ever predicts a final score.

Go back and find games with teams that come from behind... If you believe thats a reason for a KC win - then check Tom Brady's GREAT come from behind record.

But Mahiomes come from behind record is different? Maybe his come from behind streak is going to end Sunday? Not Purdy's. WOW!


SF came from behind twice and now they're gonna die from it? But its ok for you to say KC will come back from behind?


You are stuck on regular season stats for some reason. This is the playoffs, things are different now.
That because they are who they are. Playoff games arent as reliable as they seem./ Miami was frozen and they new it when they got off the plane.

The KC loss to GB was a good indicator when an opposing team has a running game. That was a game when Jones was playing and he had 108 yds.
Everyone was in for KC, - Mahomes, Kelce, Pacheo and PORK FRIED Rice. No excuses - they were beat.
They should have won that game. Maybe not the others when Kelce was out -but to discard the season results with starters playing is a significant indicator of who's coming the dance.

This is Mahomes lowest passer rating since he was a starter in the last 5 years.!
Losing Hill was vivid all season. Thats why the Chiefs scoring averages dropped a full TD on offense tis year..
Also didnt we all hear about Mahomes complaint about receivers not running the right routes - unable to get open - or dropping passes?

Do you know that these two teams were in the SB 4 years ago but KC had a young Kelce and Hill with Mahomes...???
But SF didnt have Purdy or McCaffrey then,
Now look at the comparison! Kelce is retiring after this game according to reports. SF has players at the peak in their careers.

Lastly - the Ravens SHUT OUT KC in the second half and Balt had 3 game changing turnovers - while KC had none and the Ravens out yarded KC!

There is a statistic available that shows a true scoring fact when teams have turnovers and have more yards in a loss.
KC would have lost 22-21 in Baltimore. They would have lost in Buffalo 25-24.

While SF who had 5 turnovers vs Balt in week 14 would have won 29-23 ,instead of losing 33-19.
The Chiefs are on the wrong side of this number after the last two PLAYOFF games - which is what you say matters the most.

If anyone has been lucky in come-from-behind theory - then the Chiefs are due to get beat with those facts in the last 2 games. They should have lost BOTH to Buffalo and Baltimore.
I bet KC in both games and was lucky to win them and I know it.

Being out gained and benefits from turnovers in KC's last 2 games - is unlikely to hold up vs SF.

IM posting in your thread so the readers can see capping points.
Im not sure your entire writeup and analysis is complete, when all youre going on is the few intangibles and "adage's".

Im just sharing info to show a reason for the play.

BOL.
 
Chiefs ML +110 2 Units

San Fran needs to establish their running game to set up the pass. KC can throw anytime in any situation. Kansas City holds the edge in coaching, the QB position and in the kicking department.

I will also make some in game wagers as the games progresses but nowhere near as many as Hunt does!
The 9ers need the run game to set up the pass. That;s why they finished 32nd in the NFL in pass attempts and the Chiefs finished 2nd.
 
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Hey guys let’s stay respectful of each other’s viewpoints. It‘s cool that we have different opinions and people deciding what to bet will benefit from the differences in perspective, but we need a more respectful tone. You guys both have well thought-out reasons for your respectful plays and everyone is more than welcome to share their reasons
 
There's an old adage in football: You live by the come from behind victory, you die by the come from behind victory. The 9ers have had to make BB comebacks to reach the super bowl. I see this is as a tight game with SF holding a small lead in the 4th quarter until Mahomes leads a late TD drive to grab the trophy for the third time.

Chiefs literally won a SB coming from behind on their way. Twice.
 
No stats back that up. They were last in attempts because they played with DD leads most of the season.

Chiefs opposite. Trailed a lot with inconsistent rushing attack.
The Ravens had a lot of big leads during the regular season and finished 30th in pass attempts. When the crap hit the fan last week and they needed their passing game to win, it didn't happen.
 
The Ravens had a lot of big leads during the regular season and finished 30th in pass attempts. When the crap hit the fan last week and they needed their passing game to win, it didn't happen.

Lamar missed maybe a dozen throws including basic WR flare/screens, and they led 4 scoring drives in the final 17 minutes that should have resulted in 20 points but only got 3.

Weird angle to hang your hat, the pass attempts.
 
"Weird angle to hang your hat, the pass attempts."

In the old days it was about rushing attempts because running teams won the Lombardi trophy. Today its about the passing game. 49ers are run first and the Chiefs are pass first.
 
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"Weird angle to hang your hat, the pass attempts."

The last team to make it to the Super Bowl that finished last in pass attempts during the regular season was the 2014 Seahawks.
Ironically the same ref for this SB, oh the coincidence!
 
"Weird angle to hang your hat, the pass attempts."

The last team to make it to the Super Bowl that finished last in pass attempts during the regular season was the 2014 Seahawks.

Had Lynch and a scrambling QB. Makes sense. 9 years ago too not too long, either.
 
Lamar missed maybe a dozen throws including basic WR flare/screens, and they led 4 scoring drives in the final 17 minutes that should have resulted in 20 points but only got 3.
They didn;t have 4 scoring drives if they only scored once. That sounds like fantasy football rationale right there.
 
The Ravens had a lot of big leads during the regular season and finished 30th in pass attempts. When the crap hit the fan last week and they needed their passing game to win, it didn't happen.

I think you are flip flopping a bit.^^^
First SF needs the run to set up the pass, - then its Ravens needed the pass to win?
I keep expressing the fact that SF has BOTH--- and KC doesn't, Baltimore doesn't and neither did Buffalo.

Baltimore doesnt have a true run game...They only had a running QB who was the team leader in rushing...It was truly a one-man offense. Similar with the Bills and Allen.

The 9ers need the run game to set up the pass. That;s why they finished 32nd in the NFL in pass attempts and the Chiefs finished 2nd.
They scored 29pts per game with that 32 ranked SF passing "Attemps" -- which was for more yards this year than Mohomes' had... The stats are above in this thread!
Since when does Attemps matter?
Yards and completions matter - as well as TD's , Ints and QB rating - which are what the SF attempts produced!


Let me point out how difficult Detroit was to beat.
KC was ranked 17th in Run and 8th in Passing.
Baltimore was ranked 1st in Run and 21st in passing.
Buffalo was 5th in run and 11th in passing.
Detroit was Ranked 7th in Run and 2nd in passing,.
Better than all three above over all with a true balance.

SF is #3 in Run and #4 in passing. Better than everyone!...

There's my SF ML pick!





VirginiaCavs Quote:

""Hey guys let’s stay respectful of each other’s viewpoints. It‘s cool that we have different opinions and people deciding what to bet will benefit from the differences in perspective, but we need a more respectful tone. You guys both have well thought-out reasons for your respectful plays and everyone is more than welcome to share their reasons""

I dont think anyone is disrespectful here VC. I think the points are being made.
 
Scoring drives require points be scored. Have you ever seen a team get down to the one yard line, go for it on 4th down and not get it? That is not considered a scoring drive because, once again, NO points were scored. This is basic football man.:oops:
 
Scoring drives require points be scored. Have you ever seen a team get down to the one yard line, go for it on 4th down and not get it? That is not considered a scoring drive because, once again, NO points were scored. This is basic football man.:oops:

You said the Ravens because they lacked average pass attempts per game lost the game. All I’m saying is they left 3/4 scores off the board. Maybe if they had more pass attempts they wouldn’t have taunted and fumbled at the 1 foot line.
 
You said the Ravens because they lacked average pass attempts per game lost the game. All I’m saying is they left 3/4 scores off the board. Maybe if they had more pass attempts they wouldn’t have taunted and fumbled at the 1 foot line.
Stop making excuses for the team that came up short.
 
Quarterbacks to appear in four or more super bowls:

Terry Bradshaw
Roger Staubach
Joe Montana
Jim Kelly
John Elway
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Patrick Mahomes

Why anybody thinks a QB who has played one full season in the NFL has an edge over Mahomes is totally beyond me.
 
Quarterbacks to appear in four or more super bowls:

Terry Bradshaw
Roger Staubach
Joe Montana
Jim Kelly
John Elway
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Patrick Mahomes

Why anybody thinks a QB who has played one full season in the NFL has an edge over Mahomes is totally beyond me.

who said that?
 
Quarterbacks to appear in four or more super bowls:

Terry Bradshaw
Roger Staubach
Joe Montana
Jim Kelly
John Elway
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Patrick Mahomes

Why anybody thinks a QB who has played one full season in the NFL has an edge over Mahomes is totally beyond me.
This is the stuff I love. His season stats show the edge!

Futhermore
Mahomes was in the SB in his first full season!! This is Purdy's first full season! Pretty good company I would say...

SF would have been in it last year if he wasn't injured in the Philly game.. which would have been his half year!

But why does that matter?
He is here...it doesnt matter how many times someone got here.
Getting here is the main fact.

In Mahomes' first SB he had 5K passing yards during the season. He was number 1 then. Now its Purdy who has better stats.
Point is - in Mahomes' first SB he wasn't supposed to win either, but he did. Against SF...

You bring up how teams play in playoffs and say I discard that...?
Purdy is 4-0 in playoffs in his short 1and a half seasons, and was knocked out in the Philly game in the first qtr, so he didnt lose that one.

Mahomes' also lost the SB to Tampa(Brady)..31-9.
SF is playing above that level of Tampa in 2020.
KC this year is playing below that level of play they had then in 2020 on offense.

BOL on your play.

 
Mahomes was in the SB in his first full season!! This is Purdy's first full season! Pretty good company I would say...

His first full season was 2018. He made it to the conference finals but lost to TB and the Pats. Nice try though.
 
I want to make one last point before super bowl week kicks off and all the crap that doesnt matter is endlessly talked about for the next six days. The point I'd like to make is just how good Mahomes is and why he and the Chiefs are going to win on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid successfully ran a play in the championship game against the Ravens that was unpredecented.

Late in the 4th quarter the Chiefs have the ball on their own 46 yard line. The Ravens use their final timeout and KC has it 3rd and 9 with 2:19 left in the game. Because they lead by 7 points, any other coach in that situation calls a running play, runs the clock down to the two minute warning and then punts it deep. Instead the Chiefs do this.


Only Patrick Mahomes makes that pass in that situation. Not Purdy, not Jackson, not Allen, not Goff, not anybody. Mahomes will be the difference on Sunday.

Enjoy all the bs this week brings and the game on Sunday!

EDIT

Damn. The video didn't pop up. Anyone that watched the game last week knows the play I'm talking about. Watch it again.
 
Maybe in your mind, but I'll bet the Niners arent hearing that or they should just go home.. Youre bringing up adage's that never ever predicts a final score.

Go back and find games with teams that come from behind... If you believe thats a reason for a KC win - then check Tom Brady's GREAT come from behind record.

But Mahiomes come from behind record is different? Maybe his come from behind streak is going to end Sunday? Not Purdy's. WOW!


SF came from behind twice and now they're gonna die from it? But its ok for you to say KC will come back from behind?


That because they are who they are. Playoff games arent as reliable as they seem./ Miami was frozen and they new it when they got off the plane.


The KC loss to GB was a good indicator when an opposing team has a running game. That was a game when Jones was playing and he had 108 yds.
Everyone was in for KC, - Mahomes, Kelce, Pacheo and PORK FRIED Rice. No excuses - they were beat.
They should have won that game. Maybe not the others when Kelce was out -but to discard the season results with starters playing is a significant indicator of who's coming the dance.

This is Mahomes lowest passer rating since he was a starter in the last 5 years.!
Losing Hill was vivid all season. Thats why the Chiefs scoring averages dropped a full TD on offense tis year..
Also didnt we all hear about Mahomes complaint about receivers not running the right routes - unable to get open - or dropping passes?

Do you know that these two teams were in the SB 4 years ago but KC had a young Kelce and Hill with Mahomes...???
But SF didnt have Purdy or McCaffrey then,
Now look at the comparison! Kelce is retiring after this game according to reports. SF has players at the peak in their careers.

Lastly - the Ravens SHUT OUT KC in the second half and Balt had 3 game changing turnovers - while KC had none and the Ravens out yarded KC!

There is a statistic available that shows a true scoring fact when teams have turnovers and have more yards in a loss.
KC would have lost 22-21 in Baltimore. They would have lost in Buffalo 25-24.

While SF who had 5 turnovers vs Balt in week 14 would have won 29-23 ,instead of losing 33-19.
The Chiefs are on the wrong side of this number after the last two PLAYOFF games - which is what you say matters the most.

If anyone has been lucky in come-from-behind theory - then the Chiefs are due to get beat with those facts in the last 2 games. They should have lost BOTH to Buffalo and Baltimore.
I bet KC in both games and was lucky to win them and I know it.

Being out gained and benefits from turnovers in KC's last 2 games - is unlikely to hold up vs SF.

IM posting in your thread so the readers can see capping points.
Im not sure your entire writeup and analysis is complete, when all youre going on is the few intangibles and "adage's".

Im just sharing info to show a reason for the play.

BOL.
Here's another old adage...less is more.
 
SF came from behind twice and now they're gonna die from it? But its ok for you to say KC will come back from behind?

Yes...and yes.
 
Teams that entered the 4th quarter of the SB with a 10 point lead or more but ending up losing the game all-time.

2014 Seahawks: led 24-14, lost 28-24. Winning QB was Tom Brady
2016 Falcons: led 28-9, lost 34-28. Winning QB was Tom Brady.
2019 49ers: led 20-10, lost 31-20. Winning QB was Patrick Mahomes

If the 49ers somehow enter the 4th quarter leading by 10, don't get too comfortable with your SF wager.
 
Teams that entered the 4th quarter of the SB with a 10 point lead or more but ending up losing the game all-time.

2014 Seahawks: led 24-14, lost 28-24. Winning QB was Tom Brady
2016 Falcons: led 28-9, lost 34-28. Winning QB was Tom Brady.
2019 49ers: led 20-10, lost 31-20. Winning QB was Patrick Mahomes

If the 49ers somehow enter the 4th quarter leading by 10, don't get too comfortable with your SF wager.
I'm still in turmoil from 4 years ago (SF future 25-1).
 
I'm still in turmoil from 4 years ago (SF future 25-1).
Unfortunately Patrick Mahomes was quarterbacking the other team or you would have cashed that easily. Still amazes me how people are comparing Purdy with Mahomes though. When you look at the total bodies of work of each player, there is nothing that suggests Purdy be mentioned in the same breath as Mahomes. Maybe Purdy breaks through on Sunday and makes a name for himself but I wouldn't bet on it.
 
Unfortunately Patrick Mahomes was quarterbacking the other team or you would have cashed that easily. Still amazes me how people are comparing Purdy with Mahomes though. When you look at the total bodies of work of each player, there is nothing that suggests Purdy be mentioned in the same breath as Mahomes. Maybe Purdy breaks through on Sunday and makes a name for himself but I wouldn't bet on it.
Well ya, Mahomey is generational.

Big difference. No doubt.
 
Are they fighting in a 5 round cage match on Sunday? Or a 5 set tennis match? The other 110 guys shouldn’t take the field.
There is a lot of weight put on an NFL QB because it's like no other position in sports. They handle the ball every snap when their team is on offense. That doesn't happen in basketball, hockey, baseball, etc so when you see an edge between two teams and it's at the QB position, you have to lean that way. Just my two cents.
 
There is a lot of weight put on an NFL QB because it's like no other position in sports. They handle the ball every snap when their team is on offense. That doesn't happen in basketball, hockey, baseball, etc so when you see an edge between two teams and it's at the QB position, you have to lean that way. Just my two cents.
Just ask Jared Goof about his Super Bowl performance where he didn’t once get his team into the red zone because he kept dumping it off to avoid mistakes. I don’t think Purdy will crumble under pressure like that because of all his weapons and just his confidence in what he’s seeing on the field.
 
At one point the 49ers were trailing the Lions by 17 points in the conference championship so I was curious if any team that trailed by that amount and ended up winning the conference title went on to win the Super Bowl. It's happened once before when the 2006 Colts were behind by 18 points against the Patriots, ended up winning the conference title and the super bowl. Those Colts did face the HC/QB combination of Lovie Smith and Rex Grossman which is a far cry from Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
 
At one point the 49ers were trailing the Lions by 17 points in the conference championship so I was curious if any team that trailed by that amount and ended up winning the conference title went on to win the Super Bowl. It's happened once before when the 2006 Colts were behind by 18 points against the Patriots, ended up winning the conference title and the super bowl. Those Colts did face the HC/QB combination of Lovie Smith and Rex Grossman which is a far cry from Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
Didn‘t you criticize G Man for talking about regular season as opposed to the right now? Well now you‘re talking about even broader and more distant history. So I ask you: how is this relevant?
 
Didn‘t you criticize G Man for talking about regular season as opposed to the right now? Well now you‘re talking about even broader and more distant history. So I ask you: how is this relevant?
Who is talking regular season? My reference was to the result of the conference final between NE and Ind during the 2006 season.
 
I think he‘s referring to post 8 but he‘s conflating G-Man‘s consideration of each team‘s pass attack with consideration of each team’s quarterback
Perfect example. Let me answer the questions posed to me instead of you thinking you know what I mean. Man you young kids.
 
Found it.

"Let's not forget how lucky SF is to even be in this position. The brains of this organization traded away 3 first round picks and one 3rd rounder to move up in the 2021 draft to take QB Trey Lance. Let's say that name again...Trey Lance. Apparently the niners organization collectively saw the future in this guy yet he only started 4 games and is now on the Cowboys roster. The fact they took Brock Purdy in the 7th round and he has been as good as he's been is nothing short of an unbelievable stroke of luck or they would be trying to reach a super bowl with Sam Darnold at the helm."
 
While I completely agree with the original post, and I’m no gatekeeper, but it used to be if you had 8 paragraphs to say something, you didn’t do it in someone else’s thread… multiple times.

Good stuff C-70
 
Why this game could get ugly. Some people point to regular season stats to show why teams are good or bad defensively. The 49ers finished 3rd against the run during the regular season but their rush defense has fallen off the map in the post-season. After a weeks rest they allowed 136 to the Packers and 182 yards to the Lions allowing almost 5.6 YPC. If that rush defense shows up today and Pacheco runs wild it will be a 21 point blowout.
 
It was just a few weeks ago that Patrick Mahomes had never won a road playoff game before. He leads his team to a win in Buffalo in a high scoring game and then wins in Baltimore in a low scoring game. The 49ers struggled, with rest, in their two home games. Sure seems like the Chiefs have the edge coming into this game.
 
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