Championship Week writeups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Went 8-7 last week, a pretty weak performance. Season total 100-71 (.5847). On to this week.


1. Northern Illinois +13 v Bowling Green: This line is all the way up to 13 because NIU will be on their 4th string QB, a true freshman, after their 3rd stringer Ryan Graham got hurt last week.I guess there's a chance he can still play, but they are probably just going to go with the healthy body. This is obviously concern, especially against a team with an offense like BG, but this is a line that is completely out of whack for a team with Northern's history. This will be their 6th consecutive MAC title game, and in that stretch (since 2010) NIU is 47-6 against MAC competition. They've been an underdog a grand total of 4 times, and won all 4 outright. They've never been even close to this big of a dog, and I'm sure all these players have noticed the spread and are taking it personally. Defensively, the Huskies have been strong this year, ranking 25th in total yards per play, 38th against the run and 24th in passer rating against, all tops in the MAC. They've also got a big edge in special teams, and their ATS history away from DeKalb is outstanding, going 19-5 ATS since 2012. This is just too many points to not take for a program as proud as Northern's. They will definitely show up and give a great performance. It's a must take in my opinion.
 
Good luck Brass .. in addition to the QB situation for NIU there is some ugly revenge angle for BG in this one after last year's championship game ... though someone else might argue that shows NIU matches up well against what BG likes to do. Have a feeling NIU gets smoked here but this line doesn't match up anywhere close to season long PR either ... not sure how much to value the QB situation though .. tough game to cap and hope you have found the answer.

BTW sick season you had this year.
 
GL sir, I finally went myself when I could take 14. Your writeup is so spot on that I'm going steal it completely and post it!

Let's get it done

:shake:
 
This QB from Northern, Fielder, might have the worst running instincts of any QB I've ever seen, and they keep running with him. It's what you get with a 4th stringer I guess, but they have been running effectively even though BG knows it's coming.
 
clowncar said:
Good luck Brass .. in addition to the QB situation for NIU there is some ugly revenge angle for BG in this one after last year's championship game ... though someone else might argue that shows NIU matches up well against what BG likes to do. Have a feeling NIU gets smoked here but this line doesn't match up anywhere close to season long PR either ... not sure how much to value the QB situation though .. tough game to cap and hope you have found the answer.

BTW sick season you had this year.
Click to expand...

Thanks Kyle. I can see why you'd think BG big, but it's a must take in my opinion. Thanks for the kind words. Need strong finish
 
2. @Baylor -21 v Texas: Even though it might seem like Baylor doesn't have much to play for because they have been effectively eliminated from the conference and playoff races, any time one of these Texas schools gets a crack at texas in their home stadium, they are always game to blow the Longhorns doors off. Texas has been pretty poor on defense pretty much all year, save for the now unfathomable Oklahoma game that people probably need to start asking some serious questions about. Baylor is 24-6 ATS at home since 2011, and they just failed to cover in their last home game..what are the chances they fail twice in a row in this role? Unlikely in my opinion, especially against Texas, who has wilted in road dogs recently(1-5 in their last 6 in the role). Baylor will probably be looking to take out some frustration on the Horns, and another week of practice has probably helped Chris Johnson.
 
3. Temple +6 @Houston: This is the AAC championship game, played in Houston's stadium. Surprisingly, home teams in conference championship games are only 5-9 ATS in recent years. so the home field might not be the greatest advantage. Huston is coming off a heroic performance, as Greg Ward guided them to a laugher over a very game Navy squad as a 4 point dog at home. Ward was obviously hobbled last week, but Navy just could not match up with Houston's athletes. This week, a still hobbled Ward will have to deal with the best defense he's seen this year(with the possible exception of Louisville) in Temple, who ranks highly across the board on the defensive side. People are rightly enamored with Houston, but don't forget that temple is a 10 win team themselves, and they've proven their worth by playing with Notre Dame earlier this year and hammering Penn State in week 1. They are balanced on offense, and I think the chances of Houston coming up with another big time performance in consecutive weeks is pretty unlikely. I think this one goes to the wire...lets just hope it doesn't end up being a 7 point OT game.

 
4. Southern Miss +8 (-115) @ Western Kentucky: I am certainly a believer in WKU, as they proved their mettle last week by scorching an overrated Marshall team, but the glaring advantages on paper are not evident this week against theis Southern miss squad. As well as they are playing, they are an absolute must take if they are getting points, and they are getting more than a TD here. WKU is an explosive offense, but USM has a much better defense, and I would suggest that there is much more of a mismatch between the Southern Miss offense(6th in yards per play, 10th in passer rating) and the WKU defense than vice versa. This USM squad has outgained conference foes by 255 yards per game!! There's no way I can pass up taking 8 with a team with their resume
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Baylor -21 v Texas: Even though it might seem like Baylor doesn't have much to play for because they have been effectively eliminated from the conference and playoff races, any time one of these Texas schools gets a crack at texas in their home stadium, they are always game to blow the Longhorns doors off. Texas has been pretty poor on defense pretty much all year, save for the now unfathomable Oklahoma game that people probably need to start asking some serious questions about. Baylor is 24-6 ATS at home since 2011, and they just failed to cover in their last home game..what are the chances they fail twice in a row in this role? Unlikely in my opinion, especially against Texas, who has wilted in road dogs recently(1-5 in their last 6 in the role). Baylor will probably be looking to take out some frustration on the Horns, and another week of practice has probably helped Chris Johnson.
Click to expand...

Re: the OU game, I've said from the get-go that wreaked. It began when a couple of OU DB's escorted our WR in for the game's first TD, and it kept on from there.

More injury news in for UT...our best defensive player, Malik Jefferson, is out along with a starting safety (Dylan Haines). Another impact / starting LB (Peter Jinkens) is out, and we've got issues on the defensive line as well. Jerrod Heard is likely out with a concussion so Swoopes will get most / all snaps. Doesn't really matter, both of our QBs are clueless. Briles doesn't need any reason or excuse to run up the score against Texas. This feels like a 48-17 game.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Re: the OU game, I've said from the get-go that wreaked. It began when a couple of OU DB's escorted our WR in for the game's first TD, and it kept on from there.

More injury news in for UT...our best defensive player, Malik Jefferson, is out along with a starting safety (Dylan Haines). Another impact / starting LB (Peter Jinkens) is out, and we've got issues on the defensive line as well. Jerrod Heard is likely out with a concussion so Swoopes will get most / all snaps. Doesn't really matter, both of our QBs are clueless. Briles doesn't need any reason or excuse to run up the score against Texas. This feels like a 48-17 game.
Click to expand...

Sweet...maybe I'll get one right.

(Can you tell I'm bitter about the NIU game)
 
5. Georgia State +21 @ Georgia Southern: Since Georgia Southern entered play in the FBS, they have never lost at home, a perfect 10-0, and most have been blowouts. Only Louisiana Monroe last year has come within 10 of them. Georgia State, however, has been one of the most improved teams in the country this year, and they've looked especially good the past 4 weeks, outgaining their opponents by 130 yards per game. Their offense has been very effective, ranking 33rd in yards per play, 30th in passer rating and 22nd in 3rd down conversions. They've also improved significantly on defense. They were arguably the worst defense in FBS last year, but this year they've held their own, and actually rank in the top half in the country in yards per play and pass defense. They'll have to play great against the run to have any chance in hell at the outright win, but we don't need an outright win, or anything close. Having sais that, Ga State needs this game for their first bowl appearance(they are 5-6) and their coach and players have talked extensively about getting to that goal. Ga So pounded the Panthers 69-31 last year, and they are long since bowl eligible, so there isn't close to as much on the line for them in this game, and they can't help but be completely unconcerned about Georgia State after last year's pummeling. Georgia State definitely has more urgency, and they will be playing to win. We should also remember that Georgia State has been a covering machine on the road since joining FBS. They are 13-3 ATS as a road dog in that time period, and they are a perfect 9-0 when getting 20 points or more. (Easy to research only 2 years of data!) With the road dog pedigree and the motivational edge, as well as a back door capable offense, I'll take the 21.
 
You know, I realize the kid is a true freshman, and he's a 4th stringer, but if NIU had even borderline competent quarterbacking in this game, they'd have 500+ yards. WIDE open receivers streaking all over the place.
 
Brass is the hardest working man in show business. Thanks for all the insight throughout the season, knux.
 
And I think more people check your thread than are at this game.
 
Temple - great write up and I really like their defense as well especially against a hobbled Ward. I think they can slow the game down here as well and let's be honest, even though Herman is staying there have been plenty of distractions this week.

Southern Miss - no strong feelings here except I'm just going to have to blindly take the over barring some crazy weather. This should be a very fun game to watch

Been eyeing Ga St all week hoping go get over 3 TDs. That team just keeps improving and I'm glad to see Miles keep his job. Those kids will fight til the last down tomorrow for sure and I think the talent is closer than most probably think
 
Schrute said:
Temple - great write up and I really like their defense as well especially against a hobbled Ward. I think they can slow the game down here as well and let's be honest, even though Herman is staying there have been plenty of distractions this week.

Southern Miss - no strong feelings here except I'm just going to have to blindly take the over barring some crazy weather. This should be a very fun game to watch

Been eyeing Ga St all week hoping go get over 3 TDs. That team just keeps improving and I'm glad to see Miles keep his job. Those kids will fight til the last down tomorrow for sure and I think the talent is closer than most probably think
Click to expand...

Obviously some astute thoughts here..:cigarguy:

I was hoping for a bit more with Ga State but 3 TDs is a hell of a lot for a team playing as well as they are, and with the motivational urgency. (And back door capabilities)
 
7. Clemson -4.5 v North Carolina: Despite spending most of the season as the relatively undisputed, undefeated number 1 team in the country,Clemson probably has to win this game to be in the playoff, and they know it. I have been totally impressed with UNC this year, they've lost only 1 game, and Lord knows that was a head scratcher. However, as good as they have been, they are not on par with Clemson. Both offenses are explosive and highly ranked, but there is a major difference between the defenses. UNC DC Gene Chizik has improved the UNC defense from the waste of human flesh it was last year, but the Tar Heels can't hold a candle to the Clemson D, which is ranked 7th in defensive efficiency, 6th in pass defense and #1 in 3rd dwn conversions against. In contrast, UNC 83rd against the run and 91st in 3rd down conversions against. Also, while UNC has outgained conference opponents by 79 yards this year, Clemson has bludgeoned a more difficult conference slate by 272 yards per game. Clemson is undoubtedly the soundest and most physically imposing defense UNC will have seen this year and probably the most explosive offense under Deshaun Watson that they've seen too. I don't think Clemson will allow this great season to end up rolling down their leg. DABO has proven his worth in my opinion, and will have his guys spitting nails coming out of the locker room.
 
8. Iowa +3.5 v Michigan State: Although there are more name players on MSU side and it's hard to argue with their recent pedigree, the more I look at this game, the more I'm leaning toward thinking that Iowa is better than the Spartans on both sides of the ball. To wit: MSU has struggled to run it all year, and Iowa is 21st against the run. On the flip side, Iowa has the edge in the run game against MSU's 58th ranked run D. Iowa is good on pass defense, and throws it surprisingly well also (35th in passer rating.)Football Outsiders also has Iowa pegged as a much better special teams unit, ranking them 41st in the country while MSU wallows at 111th. Both teams are fantastic away from home lately, but Iowa is 13-2 ATS away from Kinnick stadium since 2013 began. (MSU is 9-5...not bad.) Points will be valuable in this one, so I'll take the 3.5 with the undefeated squad.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Clemson -4.5 v North Carolina: Despite spending most of the season as the relatively undisputed, undefeated number 1 team in the country,Clemson probably has to win this game to be in the playoff, and they know it. I have been totally impressed with UNC this year, they've lost only 1 game, and Lord knows that was a head scratcher. However, as good as they have been, they are not on par with Clemson. Both offenses are explosive and highly ranked, but there is a major difference between the defenses. UNC DC Gene Chizik has improved the UNC defense from the waste of human flesh it was last year, but the Tar Heels can't hold a candle to the Clemson D, which is ranked 7th in defensive efficiency, 6th in pass defense and #1 in 3rd dwn conversions against. In contrast, UNC 83rd against the run and 91st in 3rd down conversions against. Also, while UNC has outgained conference opponents by 79 yards this year, Clemson has bludgeoned a more difficult conference slate by 272 yards per game. Clemson is undoubtedly the soundest and most physically imposing defense UNC will have seen this year and probably the most explosive offense under Deshaun Watson that they've seen too. I don't think Clemson will allow this great season to end up rolling down their leg. DABO has proven his worth in my opinion, and will have his guys spitting nails coming out of the locker room.
Click to expand...
Any concern about Clemson trending negatively in their last 3 games? I know it was a rivalry game but I was not impressed but Clemson in the SC game. The offense got stopped a lot more than I expected them to against our bad defense and our anemic offense put up 30. I agree with you about the UNC competition they have faced. Should be a good game.
 
Another set of great write ups, nice to agree with most or get leaned off a few.
Really like the So Miss and over, Ga St and Iowa plays
Best to you today BK and thanks again for all the great write ups every week:shake:
 
Brass - Nice work as always, you have me considering Ga State a game I wasn't paying much attention to. I am leaning towards NC coming up big tonight, but you make a compelling argument for Clemson in your writeup. BOL.
 
Br@ssknux said:
You know, I realize the kid is a true freshman, and he's a 4th stringer, but if NIU had even borderline competent quarterbacking in this game, they'd have 500+ yards. WIDE open receivers streaking all over the place.
Click to expand...


The dude had the smallest arms I've ever seen on a quarterback. Somebody needs to show that kid the weight room
 
NIU QB is taking a lot of criticism today and some of it is warranted but how many times did his receivers make a play for him? The drops were insane and the play calling by NIU was bad. Despite everything NIU had a couple chances late to cover that game and Brass was right on about NIU fighting until the end. Thought NIU gave up on their best weapon too early. That kid took a beating too, despite sliding whenever he could (He could be a professional slider he did it so well). In addition, I thought NIU did as good a job as anyone all year in shutting down the BG pass game, they just failed to stop the dive up the middle.
 
ksimpsc said:
Any concern about Clemson trending negatively in their last 3 games? I know it was a rivalry game but I was not impressed but Clemson in the SC game. The offense got stopped a lot more than I expected them to against our bad defense and our anemic offense put up 30. I agree with you about the UNC competition they have faced. Should be a good game.
Click to expand...

Yes. It's a concern, but i think they'll have a good performance this week and I think the UNC defense has gotten by this year with a bot of smoke and mirrors.
 
NIU offense was brutal all night. Not much different than what happened vs Ohio. I saw this game differently. NIU never had a shot in this game. They got a pick 6 which makes the score not look like the beating they took from BG.
 
clowncar said:
NIU QB is taking a lot of criticism today and some of it is warranted but how many times did his receivers make a play for him? The drops were insane and the play calling by NIU was bad. Despite everything NIU had a couple chances late to cover that game and Brass was right on about NIU fighting until the end. Thought NIU gave up on their best weapon too early. That kid took a beating too, despite sliding whenever he could (He could be a professional slider he did it so well). In addition, I thought NIU did as good a job as anyone all year in shutting down the BG pass game, they just failed to stop the dive up the middle.
Click to expand...

I hate to criticize him, really. I mean, the kid got thrown into the fire and took a beating and they had to have him come back into the game because he was all they had. I didn't see every play of that game, but i don't recall his receivers having that many drops, I'm sure they didn't help him much though. I remember a lot more chances down the middle of the field that he just couldn't get the ball there, and his running instincts were terrible. Not that it's his fault, he just doesn't have them. I really think that an average QB would have rolled up a ton of yards on BG last night. Well, whatever. I'm just being a bitter loser really.

You're right though, despite that they still had a myriad of chances to cover. The pick 6 helped in that endeavor though. Speaking of that, I was screaming for those corners to jump a sideline route because that was all Johnson was doing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Br@ssknux
Thanksgiving Week Writeups and Hopefully Feedback
Replies
47
Views
2K
Br@ssknux
Br@ssknux
Br@ssknux
Week 11 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback
2
Replies
50
Views
2K
Br@ssknux
Br@ssknux
Br@ssknux
Bowl Writeups and Hopefully Feedback
2 3
Replies
142
Views
8K
sevenpointroaddog
S
Br@ssknux
Week 7 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback
Replies
49
Views
2K
vegasvice
vegasvice
Br@ssknux
Week 8 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback
2
Replies
51
Views
2K
Timh
Timh
Back
Top