Championship Week Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
12:00 PM
193UL Monroe+24½
-110		O 60
-110
194Troy-24½
-110		U 60
-110
Dec 18 Fri 2020- NCAA Football Game

6:00 PM
195UAB+6
-110		O 42
-110
196Marshall
-6
-110		U 42
-110
6:30 PM
197Ball State+11½
-110		O 67
-110
198Buffalo U
-11½
-110		U 67
-110
7:00 PM
199Washington+6½
-105		O 58
-105
200USC
-6½
-115		U 58
-115
Dec 19 Sat 2020- NCAA Football Game

11:00 AM
203Florida State+9
-105		O 67
-110
204Wake Forest-9
-115		U 67
-110
11:00 AM
227Arizona+13½
-110		O 52
-110
228California
-13½
-110		U 52
-110
11:00 AM
229Northwestern+20½
-110		O 58
-110
230Ohio State
-20½
-110		U 58
-110
11:00 AM
231Oklahoma-6
-112		O 58
-110
232Iowa State
+6
-108		U 58
-110
11:00 AM
233UL Lafayette+4
-110		O 54
-110
234Coastal Carolina

+1 Markets		-4
-110		U 54
-110
11:00 AM
243Texas A&M-12
-115		O 52
-110
244Tennessee U
+12
-105		U 52
-110
11:00 AM
245Vanderbilt+37½
-110		O 53½
-110
246Georgia
-37½
-110		U 53½
-110
12:30 PM
219Washington State+9½
-110		O 58½
-110
220Utah
-9½
-110		U 58½
-110
2:00 PM
205Air Force-1½
-115		O 38½
-105
206Army+1½
-105		U 38½
-115
2:30 PM
247Mississippi-1½
-115		O 73½
-110
248LSU
+1½
-105		U 73½
-110
2:30 PM
249Missouri-1½
-110		O 49½
-110
250Mississippi State
+1½
-110		U 49½
-110
3:00 PM
235Clemson-10
-115		O 61½
-110
236Notre Dame
+10
-105		U 61½
-110
3:15 PM
241Boise State-8½
-102		O 54
-110
242San Jose State
+8½
-118		U 54
-110
7:00 PM
221Stanford+6
+100		O 58½
-110
222UCLA
-6
-120		U 58½
-110
7:00 PM
237Tulsa+14½
-110		O 46
-110
238Cincinnati
-14½
-110		U 46
-110
7:00 PM
239Alabama-17
-112		O 75½
-115
240Florida
+17
-108		U 75½
-105
8:00 PM
223Oregon-8
-115		O 61
-110
224Colorado
+8
-105		U 61
-110
9:30 PM
225Arizona State-7
-110		O 58½
-110
226Oregon State
+7
-110		U 58½
-110
 
Just took SJ State and got +9. SJ State won the right to host the game, but since they are living in Las Vegas for the time being will host it at Sam Boyd Stadium.

Three of the teams get a home game. USC plays Washington at the LA coliseum. Coastal Carolina is at home v. ULL. Cincinnati/Tulsa game is Cincinnati's home field . Those three are the only one's I see playing at home

Bet Alabama at -14x and N Dame +7x last week. Will take N Dame again at the higher number, but wait to see if I get lucky and get the extra hook

Strong lean to Iowa State, but I want to think that one over.

Lean to USC, and Buffalo.

I recall the Big 10 announced that in addition to the title game the number two team in each division would play, number 3s would play, and right down the line, but I don't see any of those games listed. Did the Big 10 abandon that idea?
 
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I didn't realize LSU had a game this week. Kind of like Ole Miss

San Jose ML will be a play.

Very intriguing situation with Army having to follow up the Navy game and everything that went into that. This game has all the meaning in the world for the trophy, but man, it has to be hard to come down from the Navy home game.

WTF happened to Wake Forest yesterday and is this line justified? Sure Duke is Duke, but as bad as WF appeared to play, and seeing that FSU looked ok, FSU a potential play?
 
On Bama at 16.5. Florida can't run and Bama d-line will own the LOS making Florida one dimensional. Florida will score some but Bama will get some stops.

Florida defense will not get stops. Will be bludgeoned at the LOS and its defense overall will be abused.

52 - 24
 
Grovehard said:
I'm ashamed to be interested in this one, but why is Nebraska laying 5.5 to Rutgers?
Click to expand...

Rutgers hasn't gotten a shred of respect from oddsmakers all year. They typically punch above their weight, but aren't always good.

Nebraska often disappoints, shouldn't to this level, but do and have.

I think Nebraska wins, not rushing to lay points though. At 3 or less I'm probably interested.
 
So huskies won’t play in conf championship game and ducks will replace them as usc opponent. I’m not super high on Trojans but why are they not in discussion for the playoff? Undefeated power 5, has osu done anything that much more impressive?
 
Vedral finished the game on crutches with Sitkowski leading Rutgers to the OT win. Schiano said Vedral's availability would be a late week or game time decision.

Vedral is a Nebraska native and was on the 2018 & 2019 Husker teams.

Sitkowski is a name familiar with Big Ten followers as he was beyond awful when thrown to the wolves as a frosh then he declared he was redshirting after 4 last year. Like everyone else on the RU team, Schiano and company have everyone playing better, Art included, but I believe Vedral has started every game.
 
5 Friday games now with the Big Ten putting two Friday games. That seems weird. Guess a TV decision, although a 4:00 Nebraska - Rutgers game doesn't sound very appealing for TV.

4:00 Neb-Rut
7:00 UAB-Mar
7:30 Ball-Buff
7:30 Pur-Ind
8:00 Ore-USC
 
twinkie13 said:
Bama is in we know that. ND is in also in

if Clemson loses are they out?
Click to expand...
What if Clemson goes UNC/Miami on the Irish and smokes them like 62-26....do you think the Irish are covered or do you think that opens it up for someone like an A&M to get in, given that the first game vs Clemson was w/o TL. Curious to see what you guys think as selfishly I hope the Irish are a lock so my Heels get into the Orange!
 
carolinablue said:
What if Clemson goes UNC/Miami on the Irish and smokes them like 62-26....do you think the Irish are covered or do you think that opens it up for someone like an A&M to get in, given that the first game vs Clemson was w/o TL. Curious to see what you guys think as selfishly I hope the Irish are a lock so my Heels get into the Orange!
Click to expand...
TAMU best win was FLA. that’s looks to have lost luster
 
Wow,, my San Jose st squad getting a touchdown vs boise! Here we go again wit a game I’m stepping out on the ledge with!! Lol
 
twinkie13 said:
TAMU best win was FLA. that’s looks to have lost luster
Click to expand...
Good! Then making the playoffs would annoy me. I know it a bummer you in same division as clearly the best team in country by a big margin but I just can’t wrap my head around teams who don’t win conf makin playoffs!!! If the season counts then aggies lost their playoff game already. Let usc have a chance, don’t care how it has looked, undefeated power 5 should get a crack at Bama!
 
2daBank said:
Good! Then making the playoffs would annoy me. I know it a bummer you in same division as clearly the best team in country by a big margin but I just can’t wrap my head around teams who don’t win conf makin playoffs!!! If the season counts then aggies lost their playoff game already. Let usc have a chance, don’t care how it has looked, undefeated power 5 should get a crack at Bama!
Click to expand...
What do you do with the Irish if they lose this weekend as both AM and ND would be out using that logic but who is left? I would still put ND in even if they lose and I would make Clemson 2 and ND 3 to set up the grudge match. Thoughts?
 
carolinablue said:
What do you do with the Irish if they lose this weekend as both AM and ND would be out using that logic but who is left? I would still put ND in even if they lose and I would make Clemson 2 and ND 3 to set up the grudge match. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

i feel like that should be a de-facto playoff game. Maybe not totally fair to Irish but let’s be real clemson was short handed the 1st time and I want the teams playing the best now and who win their region! How else can ya call it a national championship? Just my 2 cents. I don’t care how close it is either, win you in, lose and you had your shot!! Why shouldn’t someone else get a chance? If you telling me it between nd losing and aggies I don’t really care, rather see usc get a chance. Not like it matters, whomever 4th is just another bama victim!
 
Rather see usc (assuming they win the pac-12) or the best group of 5 than one these teams who don’t win conference.
 
If we don’t punish teams who can’t win conf or reward teams who do then we back to wtf the point in the season?
 
Million dollar question, can iowa state continue their streak of staying within the number vs sooners now that they catching less than a td??

sooners havnt played all that much lately while isu has seemingly stepped their defense up to another level totally shutting some teams down! Question is has the solid defense took a leap into elite territory or did they catch disinterested or short handed teams at the right time? On the same note is the sooners run defense really as stout as the numbers suggest? Hall was able to churn out 139 on them on 28 carries, that was a long time ago but sooners run d rarely been tested since! The only other legit rush attack they have faced since then was okie lite who was having serious problems w their star back. Hard not to envision Hall getting his 20+ touches and 100+ on the ground.

I think isu is the better team and they catching 5.5 points! Can they beat them twice in a season?
 
tulsa so close to be headed into a undefeated matchup with cincy, if ya recall they had okie lite dead to rights the 1st game of the season but couldn’t pull it out. Would this still be 14 had they won that game?

Really the only reason I don’t want to get involved here is the lack of games these 2 have played lately. These the ones I been looking bad on as one team just rusty or not the same we remember when they were playing every week! Gotta go back to the start of tulsa season and last year to get this kind of number with them! Cincy was -16 last year in what ended up being a 24-13 game.

I think this be another pretty low scoring game. Couple the better 3rd down, red zone, rush defenses in the country. Not to mention both are top 6 in opponent yards per completion! Cincy owns the better and far more consistent offense but I think it crazy to lay 2 tds here. As mentioned I just can’t get involved with these teams who have played so little the last month. Kinda felt like cincy ducked last weeks game so they didn’t have to play tulsa b2b weeks as that woulda been a no win situation for them!
 
Armed forces round 2 this week with army/af!! Much like the army/navy game we get another that has went under the last 6 and only eclipsed the current total of 37 once in those 6 meetings!! Does it get any better than playing armed forces unders??? Let’s see.

scores of previous meetings from most recent.

17-13 AF
17-14 army
21-0 army
31-12 AF (highest score since ‘13!)
20-3 AF
23-6 AF

looks pretty sexy if you a hard nosed fb under nut at heart like me! Dog has also covered the last 4 but this AF-3 the shortest spread since AF won as 1 point dogs in ‘16 so makes it tough to blindly play dog as well basically need the winner so let’s dig in!

Army has been the much more busy team this year playing 10 games while AF has only played once the last month and only getting 5 games in on the season. The one thing I’d say we don’t have to worry about it a “season over” lack of effort attitude, these games are these teams seasons and the military boys not quitters! Obviously the one common opponent is navy. while Air Force destroyed navy and we just saw army struggle mightily to score in the 15-0 win last week I don’t think that means much of anything. Af faced navy at beginning of the season and think it fair to say while this season was a tough one for navy they improved as it went especially on the defensive side. I don’t think for a second AF would hang 40 on navy if they played now!

Neither has played a daunting schedule but both have faced a good to very good team or 2. Army played cincy tough in a 24-10 loss while af got beat up by boise 30-49, but played a good sjst team tough in a 17-6 loss. Both have fantastic red zone defenses (back to that under ya know I’m gonna like!). Both have played solid run defense and we know both well versed defending the option! I think army pass defense might be a touch stronger but what I think might separate these 2 is Air Force qb has a bit more ability to throw the ball and with more games army has kinda passed some their numbers with some awful non division 1 schools!!

I have a very hard time wanting to ever lay points in these games but I would lean to AF with the small number. A case could be made to tease army/under but with the short number I’m more tempted to lay it with AF who has historically faired well in this matchup. Obviously I think under is the best play here.
 
Awesome 2dabank!

Air Force hasn't done well vs good teams (0-2 vs teams with winning records), won comfortably against bad teams (3-0). The Boise game they just couldn't stop Boise, that may've actually been Boise's peak offensive game of the season. AF was good on O, just couldn't keep up. You bring up the San Jose game, man, that goal line stand that San Jose had on them, wasn't that one of the best ever!?

Army played 4 teams with winning records going 3-1.

I think the line is messed up.

Last year AF was -16.5 home vs a struggling 3-5 Army team and AF only won by 4 with total yards even and Army led for much of the game.

You have to go back 3 road trips ago to 2014 when the last time AF was favored at West Point (-3), but that AF team entered 5-2, would finish the year 10-3) while that Army team was just 2-5 when they faced AF and finished 4-8. That Army team lost to Yale of all teams and lost at Kent by 22 as a short road favorite! Needless to say that was a BAD Army team and a pretty good AF team that year.

I fail to see the logic in this number. I see Circa opened at PK, meaning it has been bet up. While only 2.5, seems there is a lot of enthusiasm for the Air Force side when I'm not sure there is anything overwhelming on one side or the other. Perhaps the emotional let down aspect for Army, which in theory is possible, but in reality, I don't know. Navy is Army's biggest game they think about 24/7/365, but doesn't mean as much if they lose this game and lose the trophy. The Commander In Chief trophy is HUGE. Monken said this today on the CIC trophy: "It's the most important goal that we have as a program"
 
Do they generally play this game right after one has faced navy? I wanna say that unusual but I certainly wouldn’t want to bank on a letdown angle w these squads. I think af is a tad better offensively but it really just eye test and agree there not a super strong case for either side. Pretty sure under will be my only play,, unless I get a wild hair or line ticks up any more and I could get army+10 with a 6 point tease. That would def be worth considering imo.
 
No. Air Force - Army is always midseason and Army never plays a regular ssn game following Navy, just bowl games.

Army did pretty well after the 1st Q vs Tulane, one of the better offenses they played. That game just got all kind of side ways at the end. I think Army D is good enough vs Air Force.

I'm not 100% going to bet that Army wins, I just don't think Air Force deserves to be favored. Army state-of-mind only question and I think they should be able to handle that aspect of it.
 
s--k said:
No. Air Force - Army is always midseason and Army never plays a regular ssn game following Navy, just bowl games.

Army did pretty well after the 1st Q vs Tulane, one of the better offenses they played. That game just got all kind of side ways at the end. I think Army D is good enough vs Air Force.

I'm not 100% going to bet that Army wins, I just don't think Air Force deserves to be favored. Army state-of-mind only question and I think they should be able to handle that aspect of it.
Click to expand...

if that your only concern I would absolutely be on army then. I just don’t worry about these academy team’s for those kind of things. I still want to say I like af a smidge more but certainly not nearly as much the total and really tough to argue there a little value w army as home dogs. Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t last week navy game at army Also but was packed with Ton of navy and army cadets?
 
2daBank said:
if that your only concern I would absolutely be on army then. I just don’t worry about these academy team’s for those kind of things. I still want to say I like af a smidge more but certainly not nearly as much the total and really tough to argue there a little value w army as home dogs. Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t last week navy game at army Also but was packed with Ton of navy and army cadets?
Click to expand...

West Point is federal government property so state covid restrictions don't have to apply. The reason they moved the game from Philly was because they couldn't have the brigades of cadets and midshipman in the stands.

Air Force is almost always more of a threat to throw than Army. Both these teams seem like the same old same old they always field just with some different names. I think the way that Navy D finished off the season prior to the Army game leads me to believe that Army should have better success moving the ball vs AF than they did vs Navy...which they really didn't do much vs the Navy D at all and that was expected. Army's 3 FBs combined for 24 yards vs Navy. That is an area of offensive improvement I would expect vs AF.
 
s--k said:
West Point is federal government property so state covid restrictions don't have to apply. The reason they moved the game from Philly was because they couldn't have the brigades of cadets and midshipman in the stands.

Air Force is almost always more of a threat to throw than Army. Both these teams seem like the same old same old they always field just with some different names. I think the way that Navy D finished off the season prior to the Army game leads me to believe that Army should have better success moving the ball vs AF than they did vs Navy...which they really didn't do much vs the Navy D at all and that was expected. Army's 3 FBs combined for 24 yards vs Navy. That is an area of offensive improvement I would expect vs AF.
Click to expand...

I think navy defense has gotten really good as the year progressed so certainly don’t hold that against army any. I agree the names don’t matter much.
 
I’ll be great with army full backs doing little more damage long as it doesn’t open up the edge too much. Af run d been stout so don’t worry much about big plays, typical 15 play 8+ min drives for army to get points. I think af be the ones who might hit a big play or 2 but not sure they be as likely to sustain long drives vs army run d. I’d suspect army controls top, they sport the better 3rd down defense by a mile. Biggest key imo will be can army finish the long drives wit both teams playing stellar red zone d? That could be where the ability to hit a big play could matter. Hard not to imagine 20 points winning it.
 
It seems like when evaluating the AF D you almost want to throw out the Boise game and the Utah State game. Because the Boise game isn't going to be anything like what Army is going to try and do. And the USU game, good numbers yards and points allowed and all, but that is pretty much what everyone except for New Mexico has done to Utah State all year.

I think both teams should move the ball. The critical question will be if they they convert the drives to points and what and where the 4th down attempts happen.
 
s--k said:
It seems like when evaluating the AF D you almost want to throw out the Boise game and the Utah State game. Because the Boise game isn't going to be anything like what Army is going to try and do. And the USU game, good numbers yards and points allowed and all, but that is pretty much what everyone except for New Mexico has done to Utah State all year.

I think both teams should move the ball. The critical question will be if they they convert the drives to points and what and where the 4th down attempts happen.
Click to expand...

yea I pretty much disregarded both those games for most part. Boise passing all over af has no relevance here. Just as whipping Utah st doesn’t mean much either.
 
New Mexico missed all 4 FG attempts vs AF. If I remember AF jumped on them 21-0 1st Q then it was 21-0 for deep into the 4th Q.
 
The only thing I would say is yes weak competition outside sjst but still the 4 games outside boise af gave up 31 total, w 17 against sjst (that was sjst 1st game of the season which I’m sure contributed to only scoring 17). Not to shabby even against bad teams but as you brought up 4 missed Fgs skews things a little. End of day it prob wouldn’t matter to me had they played better teams and scores were much higher, it would have just made total higher and I’d still play under. These about as close a yearly auto bet as I have. The more success the offenses have in a way just speeds the game up if they moving the way they prefer. I trust we will get more than one 8 min drive that ends in 3 or nothing.
 
I have a real strong feeling I’m gonna be on laffy taffy but I’m not ready to dig into that one till after i get some sleep. After coastal torching me few times lately I’ll have to be really convinced, lol.
 
If I Havnt mentioned it lately I love discussing the games with ya’ll! Helps me cap the games a great deal!! Crazy how much more traffic sbr had yet less guys with opinions I respect!!! High quality posters over quantity by a mile!!! Wish I could have brought the handful of guys I respect over there with me! Think brought a few crossovers but missing a few. Think I’ll go pm them and try to poach again, I can’t imagine they wouldn’t enjoy this place more if they gave it a chance!!
 
Looking to round out my card with either USC -3 or the Over 64 in that one....See pros and cons of both, what do you guys think is the better play?
 
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carolinablue said:
Looking to found out my card with either USC -3 or the Over 64 in that one....See pros and cons of both, what do you guys think is the better play?
Click to expand...

Im in several threads racking my brain over the exact same question! Lol. I dont think usc will have much problem hitting 34+ As they have in every game besides the asu opener where they turned it over more than once in the red zone! That was also the goofy early start game as well.

Ducks pass rush ranks 102nd in the country in sack percentage, if Slovis has time to let those wrs do their thing can’t imagine he doesn’t throw for 300+ and 4-5 tds!! S—k makes good points about usc offense often times having long droughts but they also get hot at some point in every game and light up the scoreboard for a qrtr!

The obvious concern with a usc bet is the fact their run d is not good and for all ducks problems they still have a elite 7.1 yards per play average! I have no doubt the ducks will be able to hang 30+ As usc has given up 27 or more in the 3 games they have faced solid offenses. I’d say ducks offense the best they will have faced so yea, can’t see ducks not getting into the 30s!! I think usc will continue finding ways to win as they have all season which what you would expect with a NFL qb and nfl wrs all over!! That said over kinda feels “safer” doesn’t it? Thinking if we decide over is the play it be better to grab sooner than later as I suspect it goes up!!!!
 
2daBank said:
Im in several threads racking my brain over the exact same question! Lol. I dont think usc will have much problem hitting 34+ As they have in every game besides the asu opener where they turned it over more than once in the red zone! That was also the goofy early start game as well.

Ducks pass rush ranks 102nd in the country in sack percentage, if Slovis has time to let those wrs do their thing can’t imagine he doesn’t throw for 300+ and 4-5 tds!! S—k makes good points about usc offense often times having long droughts but they also get hot at some point in every game and light up the scoreboard for a qrtr!

The obvious concern with a usc bet is the fact their run d is not good and for all ducks problems they still have a elite 7.1 yards per play average! I have no doubt the ducks will be able to hang 30+ As usc has given up 27 or more in the 3 games they have faced solid offenses. I’d say ducks offense the best they will have faced so yea, can’t see ducks not getting into the 30s!! I think usc will continue finding ways to win as they have all season which what you would expect with a NFL qb and nfl wrs all over!! That said over kinda feels “safer” doesn’t it? Thinking if we decide over is the play it be better to grab sooner than later as I suspect it goes up!!!!
Click to expand...
Great stuff, appreciate the response! Yeah I am kinda surprised it is still at 64 as I grabbed the Buffalo one at 66.5 and it has gone up a point and I expect it to go even higher as we approach kickoff on Friday.
 
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