Championship round--8 unit play

Would be interested in any opinions on this:

Assume I like Ariz to win SU Sunday (and I do):

And also assume I have 3 units I am willing to wager on the SU winner:

Would you:

a) take the Cards ML +160

or

b) Take the Cards to win the super Bowl @+715 and then hedge out?


So, to answer that, one would have to try to determine what the Steelers and Ravens ML would be should they play the Cards..

What do you guys think?.. And keep in mind for purposes of this excercise, I am assuming the Cards win SU and if they do, and do so convincingly, I think the ML hedge out might be cheaper than most think..

Thoughts?


Fascinating hedge question Tee. I think it all comes down to what you perceive the line to be w/Zona vs. Pitt and/or Balty. For arguments sake, let's assume we'll call the spread/line equivalent as follows:

-7 = -250
-7.5 = -280
-8 = -300
-8.5 = -325
-9 = -350
-9.5 = -400
-10 = -450

Now since Pittsburgh is a huge public team, I can see the line getting inflated and rising close to double digits (which would be ridiculous) but understandable for a super bowl.

If Balty gets to the bowl, since they don't have the ability to score, and with a rookie QB, the number will probably be closer to the touch, in which case I think that the +715 hedge could be much more profitable.

If it's me and I'm in your shoes, I think I ride the Cards NFC Championship +160 and go from there simply because it could be a huge outlay (depending upon the winner of the AFC game) just to hedge out. Why put yourself in that position? In a game like the SB, there will be 1000 opportunities and props that may be much more appealing.

Just my $.02
 
If the Cards win this game, like i think they will.

They win the Super Bowl. Had a dream about this the other night...uh oh....

And thought about all the things you typed up a few posts ago.
 
OK, got my first teaser in with a pretty easy Bradley 9 point win..

So now I have 2 units on Ariz Cards @ +10.5.. Goal is to get 4 more units of the same deal on them... Can lose one front end only to feel good about this, if I get all three without a loss I feel real good... Good start... Have two front end candidates for tommorow I am considering..
 
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I don't like 'em to win the game, but I like 10.5 as a number in that game very much.

Yep gonna try to grab me 6 units of the 10.5.. 2 down, 4 to go....

Tricky, because I do not particularly like CBB teasers but veering off the beaten path a bit for a change.. Allowing myself 1 loss on the front end gives me some confidence I can pull this off.. We'll see...

A little surprised you don't give Ariz much chance to win SU... GL joe... Said this a couple times before, but say it again--- this place is a much better place with you around again..:cheers:
 
if i remember from previous superbowls the ml on the team laying the # is always cheaper than it would be in regular season. i think the +715.
 
Sammy, I believe there's pressure on both teams however Philly has to feel it more because of how many times they've been there and lost. Arizona and their players (Except Warner and Edge) have never been there. What failure is on them if they lose this game? Not much compared to Philly. The Eagles could image the Buffalo Bills with a loss. They could be a little more stressed having this moniker placed on them.

The other side of that coin is this game just can't mean as much to Philly's nerves simply because they've been here so often recently, and being on the road the notion of pressure is even lessened more. Even for Warner it's been so long since he was in a Conf championship game (approaching a decade), so the "jingly-jangly OOoo it's a Conference Championship game" nerves/pressure lies squarely with one team here. Familiarity breds contempt.

And my feeling, FWIW, is Philly will cover after being behind the spread 8-ball for 55+ minutes, and people on AZ will swear black & blue after the game they had the right side but got horribly moosed.
 
Some good shit Sammy agree with most, disagree slightly with some ...

"The blitz" is getting alot of talk on these pages.. I know a little bit about the blitz..

You are correct when you allude to the fact that many teams blitz without a good plan and to a certain extent a team that blitzes too much is trying to overcompensate for other flaws...

I am not in anyway suggesting Philly has a lot of flaws on defense, they don't, and they are very good.. But make no mistake, if you blitz, no matter how well conceived it is and no matter how well you disguise it- there is an easy play to be made somewhere on the field for the QB.. Warner has been and always will be the master of that.. He has seen it all and he has the studs at WR and the trust that they will be in the right places.

I will be the happiest guy in South Florida if Philly blitzs a ton Sunday because by doing so you just moved Warner's QB rating up exponentially.

Fuck, I can't wait for gameday..

You pretty much nailed it on the head buddy.. Warner seemed to struggle more with the Giants when they rushed 4 and dropped 7 in coverage.

Carolina tried that but has no secondary and schemes and are one of the worst units in the NFL--

The teams that beat KURT are the ones that rushed 4 and were able to make KURT MOVE.
NUT have you noticed that PEYTON Manning is like a robot, he will throw a pass in a game exactly like it was designed in practice, he has to have perfect footing, Manning cannot throw a bad ball, meaning he cannot adjust, he has to throw with precision to exactly where receivers are supposed to be.

One thing I agree is there is always a guy open vs man to man coverage vs a BLITZ. The throw to make also is a deeper route or a crossing route.

I played QB TEE and I had a good arm, and when teams would man us up I would look for the big play fastest receiver and hit him deep automatically.

Warner will throw the out route to Boldin and look for Breaston Deep and FITZY on a deep pass or a throw behind or an in route--

So a lot comes down to Warners recognition of the Philly Defense--

As you know there are 2 kurts. There is clean KURT that looks calm and picks apart defenses because he is reading teh defense and throwing theball quickly.

Then there is BAD KURT who holds onto the ball as the secondary is doing enough to take the quick throws away and making Fitzy and Boldin work to get open. Bad KURT usually gets hit hard and his hair looks a little ruffled up.

The key really is a matchup with the ZONA offense and WARNER vs PHILLY defense coordinator Johnson and the secondary packages.

You are right the Eagles usually have more success when they dont blitz, thier zone coverage is very good, Samuel and Brown are very good at coverage.

I think the key in this game will be the ZONA D. The Vikings D and the Giants D had on some plays NO PASS RUSH. This would be a concern as I noticed on some plays MCNABB had a lot of time to throw. I noticed that the Philly O line was dominating the pass rushes of Vikes and Giants.

how many times was Mcnabb sacked the last 2 games?

If Zona plays like they can on D they can win the game on D. This is a good unit with a lot of good college players who are playing together now.


Tee a lot of the games are won with coaching and DEFENSE--

Much like the Giants won last year they did it a lot with DEFENSE and an opportunistic offense.

This matchup is intriguing, but I think ZONA is a hot and cold team. At times they can be very hot and at times a little cold.
When they struggled their D was really cold.

I think a lot of this game will be won with the defensive coordinators vs offensive coordinators.
 
Tee I am not too escited about this game either way, I have LIVE betting so I will watch for free and jump in on at PINNY live betting. I have done this and picked the correct winner in almost every game so far.

I just see positives for both teams in this matchup buddy, but you were on ZONA all year so why stop now right?

I love your balls though, I am flat betting since I pretty much win or lose the same amount---

But I LOVE YOUR BALLS

 
Tee also dont forget MMA this saturday, there is a good fight at -130--

Dan Henderson to beat Rich franklin-- Again this line is way off IMO--

Henderson has never been knocked out ever---

Franklin is a poster boy fighter, kind of like a Peyton manning with no talent who faught vs cup cakes. He was the champ until he got beaten up very badly vs current Champ ANDERSON SILVA, he beat Frankling so bad he needed facial surgery, he broke his nose and kicked the shit out of him both matches. He lost twice to SILVA and didnt belong in the ring with him.
FRANKLIN is like a Ball state QB Nate Davis, he looks good vs shit competition and then looks lost vs good competition, there is no better comparison than that.

Henderson you may have not seen fight, but he fought Quinton jackson to a DRAW, lost a close decision but was never in trouble, Knocked out Wanderle SILVA before that in PRIDE and lost to current champ ANderson SILVA- He had Anderson in trouble and won the first round vs him. He got submitted in 2nd round but was giving the same Anderson silva a good fight until he was submitted.

Again Henderson has a rock hard chin and does not get Ko'd, he has tremenous power, he will hit Franklin, Franklin is a peyton manning pretty boy, he cant take a hit, he will get smoked here. Henderson is a greco roman world class wreslter also.

Better striker, better wrestler, better chin- and he foguht at 205 lbs and has foguht guys up to 250 pounds before--

Henderson is dropping to 185 now for this fight- he will be the same size as Franklin, Franklin was usually just a heavy guy fighting at 185lbs, he wont be bigger than HENDERSON.

Henderson is tough as nails, I mean fighting vs QUINTON to a 5 round draw, TEE right there you know he wont be knocked out--

I cant see him having trouble with Peyton Franklin here.

You may have noticed that MMA is basically stand up now with the better striker winning. HENDERSON can strike and can take a hit, any hit.
Franklin is a pussy he has no power anyway.

The only possible way Franklin can win is on the decision scorecards and that would have to be with some lame ass strategy where he kicks and retreats and plays defensively-

I cannot see HENDERSON having trouble with PEYTON here. PEYTON really has beaten no quality fighters. Henderson has beaten some of hte worlds best.
 
Definately Playing MMA Saturday night Sammy.. I'll get over there later in the week..:shake:
 
yeah itll get hit at some point, but shouldn't make it to 3(-110) i don't think.

how about the pitt/balt line? i could see the same thing happening, but again i don't think it'll get back to the key #
 
yeah itll get hit at some point, but shouldn't make it to 3(-110) i don't think.

how about the pitt/balt line? i could see the same thing happening, but again i don't think it'll get back to the key #

I just don't have a very good feel for that line or game to be honest.. I go back and forth... My gut says I think the line is right and won't move much...We'll see.

I agree I can't see Ariz get back to 3 now unless one of the real big boys plays a game with it
 
yeah itll get hit at some point, but shouldn't make it to 3(-110) i don't think.

how about the pitt/balt line? i could see the same thing happening, but again i don't think it'll get back to the key #

I was thinking this would get to 7 easily, but I cannot believe all the Ravens support I am seeing. I guess a lot of it will come down to the injury report. For what it's worth, I'm looking to get a chunk down on Pitt at an alternate line up to -13. I don't think this game will be close. Ravens have had the luxury of being ahead and being in tight ballgames up until this week (you can say the same about the Eagles) I think they get beat early, Pitt controls the ball & the tempo, and runs the Ravens off the field in a convincing manner. You can't hide your QB in the playoffs, they've put Flacco into cold storage.

Guessing you may see this at 6.5 or 7 by kickoff, but I don't know if it will cross 7.
 
I was thinking this would get to 7 easily, but I cannot believe all the Ravens support I am seeing. I guess a lot of it will come down to the injury report. For what it's worth, I'm looking to get a chunk down on Pitt at an alternate line up to -13. I don't think this game will be close. Ravens have had the luxury of being ahead and being in tight ballgames up until this week (you can say the same about the Eagles) I think they get beat early, Pitt controls the ball & the tempo, and runs the Ravens off the field in a convincing manner. You can't hide your QB in the playoffs, they've put Flacco into cold storage.

Guessing you may see this at 6.5 or 7 by kickoff, but I don't know if it will cross 7.

I agree with your thoughts but I can also see a nightmarish situation for Pitt in which Big Ben gets hit hard a lot.. Call me sentimental, but I just have a problem backing a QB 2-3 weeks removed from a spinal concussion against the Ravens defense, (if somewhat healthy)..

For me I just can't get any confidence on either side with all the unknowns.. As you say, a lot comes down to the injury report and I doubt very much any of that is known much before gametime..
 
pitts will win, a buddy of mine a ravens nut, said it will be a tough task for balty to win this sunday,
THey are injured on D a bit.

I just think PItts is a more mature version of BALTY. iF you dont turn the ball over vs balty, you should win here with pitts.

flacco struggles in this game IMO. The Balty pass d willl get beat deep by pitts.
 
I agree with your thoughts but I can also see a nightmarish situation for Pitt in which Big Ben gets hit hard a lot.. Call me sentimental, but I just have a problem backing a QB 2-3 weeks removed from a spinal concussion against the Ravens defense, (if somewhat healthy)..

For me I just can't get any confidence on either side with all the unknowns.. As you say, a lot comes down to the injury report and I doubt very much any of that is known much before gametime..

I don't see a drop off if Ben goes out, that's why I'm so confident with this play. Also, as long as the Steelers can run the ball (and I think they finally can) the Ravens will not be able to unload on Ben with blitzes. Collins stayed clean while Johnson was still in the game, I think Ben will have the same luxury.
 
Brian Westbrook re-injured his left knee in the Philadelphia Eagles' 23-11 divisional-round victory over the New York Giants but is expected to play against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, the running back told ESPN's Sal Paolantonio on Wednesday.Westbrook said he is dealing with some "extra swelling" in the knee and wouldn't practice Wednesday.
"I'm going to spend more time running in the pool to help the muscles around the knee fire up a little bit better," he said.
Westbrook finished with just 36 yards on 18 carries and had two receptions for 10 yards last weekend.


Think this hasn't really been mentioned either. Can the Eagles score enough w/ Westbrook all banged up? Wasn't a huge issue against the Giants, since their offense was horrible, but seems like AZ should be able to put up at least 20..
 
Bro you shoudl have waited--

line is up to 4 now, and you could buy half point get it to +4.5---

surprised its going up, seems like no one is sold on cardinals.

This is probably a good thing if everyone is on eagles and line goes up for you.
 
i just don't see any reason to play zona or balt until we see some resistance. i can see both of these doing just like OU right before kick. but not so drastically maybe
 
TEMPE, Ariz. -- Arizona receiver Anquan Boldin practiced Wednesday, and says he will play in Sunday's NFC Championship Game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Boldin, who with Larry Fitzgerald forms arguably the best receiving tandem in football, said a trip to a Dallas chiropractor has greatly improved his strained left hamstring. The injury kept Boldin out of the Cardinals' 33-13 victory at Carolina in Saturday's divisional playoff game.


Flies to Dallas to see a chiropractor..LOL..
 
arguably? hardly. obviiously by far the best

Tried to name 5 better tandems in the history of the league.. Came up with 2 or 3.. Sure I am forgetting some but ya, very good... All this team ever needed was an improved offensive line and a defense, especially a defense... At this point feel good about both especially at home.. Let me say that again--especially at fucking home..

Let get er done Tide:smiley_acbe:

Little worried about the tight end position though..
 
yeah def somn to worry about with 7 blitzers. i like Edge being back there though. he's a stud at picking up a blitz. arrington aint bad either.

with boldin healthy they'll be able to spread it out though, so the TE is less important
 
add 2nd of 3 teasers I plan to play:

So Illinois +15 WIN, Ariz +11, -120; 2 units

Damn, nailing the front end of these teasers... Need one more ..

Currently have Ariz now for 4 units---- at +10.5 for 2 and +11 FOR 2.. :smiley_acbe: Got to be careful now as I need to carefully pick the last tease partner over the next 3 days...:popcorn::popcorn:
 
struggling to find my 3rd teaser... Hit my first two front ends pretty easily in CBB but nothing has come close since.. Getting greedy and tightened my criteria a bit as I think I can get all three in play now without my one "allowed loss".... Got three on tap in CBB tommorow but my shop won't release me lines until the a.m.... Probably going to stick with running mid dogs up
 
struggling to find my 3rd teaser... Hit my first two front ends pretty easily in CBB but nothing has come close since.. Getting greedy and tightened my criteria a bit as I think I can get all three in play now without my one "allowed loss".... Got three on tap in CBB tommorow but my shop won't release me lines until the a.m.... Probably going to stick with running mid dogs up



Iowa St +20?

Arkansas +15.5?
 
tee...i know you like the mid dogs up but a mid fave I'd look at is Mich St...down to a bucket looks pretty tempting IMO...still not sold on Illy away from home..

G'town up would be tempting at 15.

GL
 
Iowa St +20?

Arkansas +15.5?

read my mind Aplous. Iowa state is on my very short. Can actually get them at 20.5 now.. That is appealing.. Arky? I'll circle back and look at that one again.. Thanks for stopping in..:shake:
 
tee...i know you like the mid dogs up but a mid fave I'd look at is Mich St...down to a bucket looks pretty tempting IMO...still not sold on Illy away from home..

G'town up would be tempting at 15.

GL

I use a 7 (fb) 5 (BB) cross sport tease and right now the best I could do is Mich St -3. Though I agree, I think Michstate wins, -3 just leaves too big of a hole for my comfort.. To be honest would be more tempted with Illy at +13 but I will run clear of that game for sure.. Now Gtown up to 14 is appealing but think I am going to stay away from marque teams/games..

GL this weekend bro..:cheers:
 
struggling to find my 3rd teaser... Hit my first two front ends pretty easily in CBB but nothing has come close since.. Getting greedy and tightened my criteria a bit as I think I can get all three in play now without my one "allowed loss".... Got three on tap in CBB tommorow but my shop won't release me lines until the a.m.... Probably going to stick with running mid dogs up
How about Butler today bro, "secret:
 
OK guys, thanks for the help. Narrowed it to these three:

Iowa Sta +20.5
Butler +2 (don't like to cross pk on teasers though--lose value I think)
Scary +15

Going with :

Add:

Iowa State +20.5, Ariz Cardinals +11, -120; 2 units

Briefly:

Mizzu coming off blowout win v. Colly and think they get a tough fought win here but nowhere near 20 and be a little surprised if they crack DD. Iowa State was dogged by 16.5 at Texas recently and they were in the game the entire way. Iowa State shot only 38 percent and still only got beat by 8 on the road to a team that I rate higher than Mizzu. Iowa St lost first half by 6 and 2H by 2... They balled the entire way and the talent difference was not as great as some suspect... More of the same today IMO.
 
OK guys, thanks for the help. Narrowed it to these three:

Iowa Sta +20.5
Butler +2 (don't like to cross pk on teasers though--lose value I think)
Scary +15

Going with :

Add:

Iowa State +20.5, Ariz Cardinals +11, -120; 2 units

Briefly:

Mizzu coming off blowout win v. Colly and think they get a tough fought win here but nowhere near 20 and be a little surprised if they crack DD. Iowa State was dogged by 16.5 at Texas recently and they were in the game the entire way. Iowa State shot only 38 percent and still only got beat by 8 on the road to a team that I rate higher than Mizzu. Iowa St lost first half by 6 and 2H by 2... They balled the entire way and the talent difference was not as great as some suspect... More of the same today IMO.
Damn you! :pillow: BOL bro!
 
Looks like K. Warner can earn about $4 million in bonuses if they win the superbowl. :cheers:


Cardinals’ Warner Can Add $4 Million in Bonuses With NFL Title

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By Curtis Eichelberger and Aaron Kuriloff
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner may earn as much as $4 million in bonuses, doubling his base salary, if he leads his team to its first Super Bowl championship, according to a person with access to his contract.
Warner, a two-time National Football League most valuable player who becomes an unrestricted free agent after this season, earned $1.5 million in performance bonuses during the regular season and $1.5 million for leading the Cardinals to the NFC championship game this weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles in Glendale, Arizona.
The 37-year-old quarterback, who won a Super Bowl title with the St. Louis Rams after the 1999 season, can increase his bonus total by $500,000 if the team advances to the Super Bowl Feb. 1 in Tampa, Florida, and another $500,000 if Arizona wins the championship. The total bonus payout for the season would be $4 million for a player who might have wound up as a backup.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=aBdk.CH3F5R8&refer=amsports
 
OK lost my ONE allowed front teaser.. Need this one to make me happy. This was my other lean.. rolling with it..

Add:

South Car. +15.5, Ariz Cards +10.5, -120; 2 units
 
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