Championship round--8 unit play

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
I'll add thoughts but just locked this in.. Maybe the number gets better but I like it now so locking it in:

Ariz +3, +105; 8 units (top unit +2) WIN
Ariz 2H TT over 10.5, -115; 2 units LOSS
Balty 2H +3, -115; 4 units.....PUSH


Teasers-- attempting to get 6 units on Ariz as the last leg of 3 separate teasers (trying not to lose more than one in building them)

#1 Bradley +2 w, Ariz Cardinals +10.5, -120; 2 units WIN
#2 So Illinois +15 w, Ariz Cardinals +11, -120; 2 units WIN
#3 Iowa State +20.5 L, Ariz Cardinals +11, -120; 2 units LOSS
#4South Car. +15.5 w, Ariz Cards +10.5, -120; 2 units WIN



line should be a pk IMO and even at that I would be on Ariz heavy.

Likely add ML , waiting on Boldin news..


Like this nearly as much as SGU play in Bowl game...
 
Last edited:
Why so excited so early about this one tee? Philly D is better. Eagles Coaching is better. More experience on the side of the Eagles. Curious as to why the big lean. GL!
 
wiseplayer said:
Why so excited so early about this one tee? Philly D is better. Eagles Coaching is better. More experience on the side of the Eagles. Curious as to why the big lean. GL!
Click to expand...

I'll break it down when I have time bro, wanted to lock it in tonight..

Stalked it all day, hoping for a paper Eagles win.. Got it, then they made the number 3 points better than I hoped, at plus vig...

Ariz playing at a very high level right now, both sides of the ball... Made the play without Boldin but think he has decent chance to play.. Could have played this week, limited, but they saved him...Tells me something about the confidence in the clubhouse..
 
i think you are right, i just don't like laying $$ with warner against that blitz if zona gets behind. i would not lay points with philly here though. i think the value is with the points, no question. doesn't meant its a winner though. GL
 
Liked reading this:

Arizona dominated with one of its best players, receiver Anquan Boldin, watching in street clothes because of a strained left hamstring. He could be back for the Eagles game.

"It got a lot better from last week until today," Boldin said Saturday. "... The guys made me a promise — they told me they would give me another week. They were true to their word."

'an_horse''an_horse''an_horse''an_horse'
 
Tee, I'm having a hard time not taking Zona. I'm trying to find some reason to take Philly...but can't right now.

Both teams hot right now...check.
Both teams defenses playing well check
Both teams not turning the ball over check
Both teams very confident right now check.

Leaning hard to getting the points here.
 
Arizona D playing lights out right now. Plus Philly has to D up against a pass first offense instead of the running offenses with weak pass attacks in Minny and NYG. Philly D seems to be built to stop the heavy rush offenses in the NFC East. Arizona in the Super Bowl.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Tee, I'm having a hard time not taking Zona. I'm trying to find some reason to take Philly...but can't right now.

Both teams hot right now...check.
Both teams defenses playing well check
Both teams not turning the ball over check
Both teams very confident right now check.

Leaning hard to getting the points here.
Click to expand...

Only one team at home Marlo..Add that to your list..

Here is my thing guys.. I think Leslie Frazier's (Viking DC) defensive gameplan will be very similar to what Ariz will deploy. And I love that game plan.. Really, it worked for the most part except Viking offense was sooo bad the defense was on the field tooo long and eventually got tired, long screen play by Westbrook etc.

That is where the Cardinals have a big advantage over the Vikings.. They have an extremely good offense with an experienced, talented QB. Cardinals are very capable of winning T.O.P. , keeping their ball hawking defense off the field and fresh...

If you rush McNabb hard, he will create some takeaway opportunities and the Cardinals defense plays that game very well as we saw last week..

Some people say that home field advantage is minimized in the playoffs.. In this case, this is a huge homefield advantage..

Would have played it hard at a pick, getting a FG at poitive vig means I play it real hard..
 
tee*dub said:
Only one team at home Marlo..Add that to your list..

Here is my thing guys.. I think Leslie Frazier's (Viking DC) defensive gameplan will be very similar to what Ariz will deploy. And I love that game plan.. Really, it worked for the most part except Viking offense was sooo bad the defense was on the field tooo long and eventually got tired, long screen play by Westbrook etc.

That is where the Cardinals have a big advantage over the Vikings.. They have an extremely good offense with an experienced, talented QB. Cardinals are very capable of winning T.O.P. , keeping their ball hawking defense off the field and fresh...

If you rush McNabb hard, he will create some takeaway opportunities and the Cardinals defense plays that game very well as we saw last week..

Some people say that home field advantage is minimized in the playoffs.. In this case, this is a huge homefield advantage..

Would have played it hard at a pick, getting a FG at poitive vig means I play it real hard..
Click to expand...

lol, that was the whole point of me replying to your post...and I forgot to add that in there....this where I think we see a difference....this team has come so far from years past....I talked to a guy down AZ this morning that I do business with, and he said every one downt here is buzzing....he said this is all every one is talking about....
 
The philly defense is not built to stop the run, actually quite opposite. Yes teh Eagles have stopped the run but not because of the way defense is built, but exceptional play. The Eagles front 7 are undersized especially the D lineman. Dawkins has been playing great in run stop, because eagles corners are very good and allow the defense to cheat towards the run and corners man up. Eagles will blitz Warner and that is what this defense is built for, blitizing. Eagles defense thrives on pass happy teams, that is the truth. When Dallas lost threat of run and Eagles were able to pin their ears back vs Dallas that is the results. Eagles will bring everything at Warner this weekend, not sure who will win, but Eagles are built for this game and they play much better in warm weather
 
Agree with this last post; Eagle defense is tailor-made for the kind of offense Arizona trots out. Should be an interesting game...
 
allaboutthecash said:
The philly defense is not built to stop the run, actually quite opposite. Yes teh Eagles have stopped the run but not because of the way defense is built, but exceptional play. The Eagles front 7 are undersized especially the D lineman. Dawkins has been playing great in run stop, because eagles corners are very good and allow the defense to cheat towards the run and corners man up. Eagles will blitz Warner and that is what this defense is built for, blitizing. Eagles defense thrives on pass happy teams, that is the truth. When Dallas lost threat of run and Eagles were able to pin their ears back vs Dallas that is the results. Eagles will bring everything at Warner this weekend, not sure who will win, but Eagles are built for this game and they play much better in warm weather
Click to expand...

:4_12_13:
 
Brown, Sheppherd, Samuel. 3 pro bowl caliber corners. Dawkins and Mikell are pretty damn good safties too last I checked.
 
allaboutthecash said:
The philly defense is not built to stop the run, actually quite opposite. Yes teh Eagles have stopped the run but not because of the way defense is built, but exceptional play. The Eagles front 7 are undersized especially the D lineman. Dawkins has been playing great in run stop, because eagles corners are very good and allow the defense to cheat towards the run and corners man up. Eagles will blitz Warner and that is what this defense is built for, blitizing. Eagles defense thrives on pass happy teams, that is the truth. When Dallas lost threat of run and Eagles were able to pin their ears back vs Dallas that is the results. Eagles will bring everything at Warner this weekend, not sure who will win, but Eagles are built for this game and they play much better in warm weather
Click to expand...

Check Warners passer rating when being blitzed.. Don't have it updated but three or four games ago he had the highest passer rating in the league when being blitzed.. Much higher than when not blitzed... I'll try to find it for the entire regular season and post it in here--- but trust me, blitzing Warner is not like blitzing Tavaris Jackson..

People just assume you can blitz Warner effectively but really, he gets in trouble when he holds the ball too long deep in the pocket.. Always has been his problem going back to his days in the arena league throwing to Wilis Jacox of the Iowa Barnstormers (don't ask why I know that)... He is much better with quick reads and has one of the quickest releases in football..You blitz warner and have man coverage on Fitz? GL with that. I hope but would be very surprised if the Eagles bring the blitz more than normal.

I like the Philly defense a lot, Kind of like I liked Atlanta and Carolina's..

This is a tight game no matter how you script it... Home team getting those points:shake:

Thanks for stopping in bro..:cheers:
 
allaboutthecash said:
Eagles will blitz Warner and that is what this defense is built for, blitizing. Eagles defense thrives on pass happy teams, that is the truth.
Click to expand...

Found it--blitz away biatches

According to Stats LLC, Warner leads the NFL with a 116.0 passer rating when opponents blitz. He has 13 touchdown passes with only two interceptions and four sacks against 170 blitzes. His ability to get rid of the ball quickly has been a key to sustaining drives.
 
Although philly will blitz they always do, I meant to say the Defense is made to pressuer QB, that is why the Dline is undersized. They intentionally draft the smaller but more athletic D lineman as Johnson's defensive scheme is based on QB pressure. Yes, along with D line pressure Eagles do and will blitz. I know they picked Warner 3 times in 1st game but that was at Philly. Carolina and Atlanta both have very good defenses and Warner took it to them I agree but Eagles defense is completely different, not saying they are better, but different in how they get the results. Eagles always give up chunks of rushing yards because the D line is small, but once they force teams into 3rd and longs, they pressure QB into making mistakes
 
love it tee, and i completely agree with you on warner. i think they beat the eagles convincingly by double digits. gl to us.
 
Have they said if the roof is gonna be open or not?

Id assume it would be closed to trap in the noise, but I hadnt seen anything definitive yet...
 
tee*dub said:
Found it--blitz away biatches

According to Stats LLC, Warner leads the NFL with a 116.0 passer rating when opponents blitz. He has 13 touchdown passes with only two interceptions and four sacks against 170 blitzes. His ability to get rid of the ball quickly has been a key to sustaining drives.
Click to expand...

I borrowed this, hope you don't mind. :shake:
 
Have they said if the roof is gonna be open or not?

Id assume it would be closed to trap in the noise, but I hadnt seen anything definitive yet...

They had it closed for the Atlanta game to make it louder so I would think your assumption is probably right on key in trying to trap in the noise.
 
3rd & Long said:
I borrowed this, hope you don't mind. :shake:
Click to expand...

No problem. I steal most of my good stuff.

You would be shocked how many threads I have read around the net that state: "Blitz Warner and he fails." That is not only inncorrect this year but he has always been at his best against the Blitz.. When Haslett was in New Orleans back in the early 2000's his defenses had success against Warner when few others did... He rarely if ever blitzed Warner..

Warner makes a majority of his mistakes in the 7 step drop package-- which is why I love it when they go no huddle early in the game. All 3 step drop, get the ball out quick to the best YAC receivers in the NFL.. I hope they open the game with that package..

I'll say this- Warner has evolved so well throughout this year. He has become the team leader and has earned huge lockerroom cred with how he handled the Boldin injury situation..

Should be a very good game-- two playoff tested QB's and opportunistic defenses..

Anyone else notice how much harder Edge has been running now that he has to earn playing time...
 
Did you know that the Colts gave Edge a Super Bowl ring? They said he played a large part in getting them to where they were and that he deserved it. Very classy.

Edge admitted that he was getting too cute when running the ball, now he is back to doing what he does, lower his head and get positive yardage. He won't bust a 50 yarder, but he'll get you 4-7 at a time.
 
Dome will be closed Sunday at University of Phoenix stadium as reported on ESPN a short time ago.. Atlanta Falcon players noted that the stadium was the loudest they had ever played in, even louder than the Metrodome when the Vikings routinely pumped in artificial crowd noise in the late 90's.

:smiley_acbe:
 
Whisenhunt's press conference today:

Cardinals TE Spach done for season; Boldin's status uncertain
Tempe, AZ (Sports Network) - Arizona Cardinals tight end Stephen Spach is out for the playoffs with a torn knee ligament.
Spach tore his right anterior cruciate ligament while blocking in the second half of Saturday's 33-13 victory over Carolina.
"Stephen Spach has an ACL, so he's going to be done for the season for us," said Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt in his Monday press conference. "Which is unfortunate, because he's been playing pretty good football for us."
The injury leaves the team with two tight ends on the roster: Leonard Pope and Ben Patrick. Pope has been hampered by a sore ankle while Patrick has been struggling with an ongoing knee injury. Whisenhunt, though, said the team will be bringing in another tight end.
Whisenhunt also stated in his press conference that he is unsure if Pro Bowl wide receiver Anquan Boldin, who sat out against the Panthers with a strained left hamstring, will be able play in Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
"Anquan, we'll see," said Whisenhunt. "Obviously we're a week further along in the process of that hamstring getting better, so hopefully he'll be able to do something this week, but we'll see as the week progresses."
 
A couple of things to remember,
1) the eagles totally whipped the cards in november, im sure the cards will remember that game. Ever since the cards got their asses handed to them against the patriots they have played with a certain vigor.
2)the eagles havnt really played a team with a full package. This cards team is better than the vikings and WARNER will not make the same mistakes that MANNING made. I think the best thing that could have happened to ARIZONA is that new england game. They will not be embarrassed at home, esp by the eagles.
3) not really a big factor is the eagles will have basically a short week, yea philly is not that far from giants stadium but its still travel, and then they have to fly out west. I think the cards will be well prepared for this game. Philly has had the luxury to be able to focus on 1 thing on defense, both against the giants and the vikings, (stop the run), now they have to do both. The eagles will have their hands full, i think they lose. And last but not least, all of the eagles corners are small, larry fitz will have a field day against the eagles secondary. I think the eagles win this game. Away teams are 5-3 vs the spread in the playoffs this year. That # will even out before the superbowl. 1 more thing, the eagles are just not a superbowl caliber team, they have had alot of luck to be where they are. That 4 leaf clover dies next sunday
 
Line keeps going up.

We saw the books moving the lines to get balanced action last week, and that seems to be the case again.
 
Wikeman said:
Line keeps going up.

We saw the books moving the lines to get balanced action last week, and that seems to be the case again.
Click to expand...

Ya see +3.5 all over... Really though that is equiv.ish to +3,+105... ML stayed tight....

Think I'll probably play 2 more units.. Debating whether to grab some of the 3.5 or take the ML... No hurry as don't think it will move against me... That your take?
 
I have bitten already because I thought the line was too good to last.

So much for my predictive powers so far.

I'm surprised that the public is so high on the Eagles at this line, and heavy money should come in on Cards at some point.

I am on +3 and +3.5. I didn't try to analyze the value of the ML, I'd rather play a little safer.
 
OK, mentioned this in a couple threads. Here is the deal. I want 6 units on the Cards at plus 10.5 on the back end of a 7 point teaser. I am going to do these in 2 unit increments throughout the week using CBB and NBA as the front leg of each.. Goal is to lose not more than 1 of the front plays and if I get lucky hit 3 without a loss..

First one is:

Bradley +2, Ariz Cardinals +10.5; 2 units

See comments over in CBB section as there are several guys on it.. I am on the game at -1.5; -120 for 4 units.. Good spot for the Braves..
 
Heres my take on this game TEE--

Agree line is a bit off, probably a fair line would be Pickem here- Not sure why its -3, as this game could end in a 3 point win. So the value according to the line watchers would be ZONA-

-Zona corner Rodgers Cromartie is possibly one of the most athletic and best corners in the NFL- He is young but going to be a star. He was able to cover Steve SMITH deep and on short slants. We all saw how Steve Smith ripped apart Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Green Bay and Atlanta.
This kid is for real and since he has became a starter Cards pass D is way better.

-Finally Zona last week was the first team I have seen this year that actually had some balls on Defense- They actually used a logical approach- They knew that Carolina receivers are not athletic at all other than SMITH-
-They took the deep balll away to Steve SMITH and had Cromartie take away the quick throws to smith-
-The slow footed ancient MOHAMMED just runs short possesssion routes, they were all over him, jumping, guessing, taking away Delhommes short passes to the possession receivers.
-NFL teams usually just sit back in awe and protect deep and say okay dont get beat deep-
-What ZONA did was take away the intermediate routes from Delhomee- they knew the receivers are slow on Carolina-
-Not surprising as Carolina has possibly the most unathletic core of receivers in the NFL-

-Zona is very athletic on Defense- havent heard much about Adrian Wilson lately as others have taken over now, Cromartie Dockett, HAYES- all played well-

-Cards success lately is lot with Fitzgerald-

Cards will win if they throw to LARRY F-- I can tell you guys this much- If Warner throws passes to LARRY F in the air where the ball is thrown high, its LARRY's ball I would say at least 95 out of 100 throws and that is vs 2 Db's---
Larry Fitzergerals has NBA leaping ability--
 
Be carefull with Warner vs the BLITZ- most teams that blitz had shitty secondaries also, they didnt play good pass defense as the Eagles DO-

A concern with ZONA would be the softness factor as it seemed to be that they lose to most of the tough physical teams this year.
Beating Atlanta was the first team they beat this year that was tough--

Another concern is the ZONA win over Carolina was very impressive on Defense, I mean they obviously had a good gameplan and if their athletes compete I think they can stop other teams--

However a concern for me is that Zona moving the ball last week vs Carolina is not impressive, because Carolina has one of the worst secondaries in posssibly the last 10 years in the NFL- They are so bad, its not even funny. I mean Chris Gamble, Richard marshall and their pass zone schemes are so bad its not even funny-

The same plays were working over and over to Fitzgerald. Did Carolina know that Larry F was the main receiver? Yes they did but it does not matter, because in reality Carlolina secondary is so bad that they can double cover and still receivers get open.

SO my point is that Larry F vs the eagles, I dont think he gets open every play like he did last week. It was one of the biggest mismatches in NFL history last week Fitzgerald vs Carolina, so much that Fitzegerald set a NFL record in the first half of that game.

Eagles will locate him and hit him hard but also take him out of the game with better schemes.
Zonas win was impressive on Defense, but on offense not too impressive.

I mean carolian could not even beat a shitty giants team at giants stadium, When ELI started picking them apart.

As good as ZONA looked last week I honestly believe that Carolina was one of the worst coached teams with a horrible secondary, coupled with mickey mouse offense that ZONA studied and picked off almost every Delhomee pass.

Zona is a different animal at home very good with the crowd,

In my eyes this game is really simple--

ZONA either plays loose and relaxed and I think they can win--

OR

they play tight and fold and players start fumbling and they pull a Tennesse or a Giants and just cannot beat the eagles.
 
Also Tee with regards to the blitz vs Warner you are correct but I will add something-

Warner is good at making his mind up before the blitz and hitting the running back flaring out of the backfield or a receiver crossing all the way across the field--

It depends on how Philly hides their blitzes and if they can cover the quick reads-

Teams that blitz warner and dont understand how to play coverage are doomed--

If you blitz warner and take his first look away he will hold on to it and get sacked--

I do know that no matter how good Warner is when Eagles all out blitz and send guys at him, if he does not have time he will not complete passes---

The book on Warner is very simple---

Last week carolina did not have a player within 5 yards off him in the 1st half--

he picked carolina apart---

Eagles will likely try to hit warner or at least try to disrupt the pocket--

Eagles will not give him as much time as Carolina did.

THe key is the ZONA O line, how much time do they give WARNER?
The second key is the matchup wtih zona receivers vs EAGLES DB's--


who wins these 2 matchups? Does Zona skill win or the eagles hard hitting?

Teams like the Cards never do well the eagles because eagles feast on pocket QB's because Jim JOHNSON does not have to prepare for a running QB--

SO his focus on D is attacking warner as he knows where he will be every play--

It is true Eagles do well vs passers like Warner, the first match was an indication of that.

Of course everythig has changed now and the game means more and ZONA is at home and they are very good at home.

Zona wins a lot of games at home but do they win a meaningfull game at home to go to superbowl?

This week all the pressure is back on the ZONA CARDINALS, last week there was no pressure.

This week pressure is back on them.
 
Some good shit Sammy agree with most, disagree slightly with some ...

"The blitz" is getting alot of talk on these pages.. I know a little bit about the blitz..

You are correct when you allude to the fact that many teams blitz without a good plan and to a certain extent a team that blitzes too much is trying to overcompensate for other flaws...

I am not in anyway suggesting Philly has a lot of flaws on defense, they don't, and they are very good.. But make no mistake, if you blitz, no matter how well conceived it is and no matter how well you disguise it- there is an easy play to be made somewhere on the field for the QB.. Warner has been and always will be the master of that.. He has seen it all and he has the studs at WR and the trust that they will be in the right places.

I will be the happiest guy in South Florida if Philly blitzs a ton Sunday because by doing so you just moved Warner's QB rating up exponentially.

Fuck, I can't wait for gameday..
 
Sammy, I believe there's pressure on both teams however Philly has to feel it more because of how many times they've been there and lost. Arizona and their players (Except Warner and Edge) have never been there. What failure is on them if they lose this game? Not much compared to Philly. The Eagles could image the Buffalo Bills with a loss. They could be a little more stressed having this moniker placed on them.
 
Would be interested in any opinions on this:

Assume I like Ariz to win SU Sunday (and I do):

And also assume I have 3 units I am willing to wager on the SU winner:

Would you:

a) take the Cards ML +160

or

b) Take the Cards to win the super Bowl @+715 and then hedge out?


So, to answer that, one would have to try to determine what the Steelers and Ravens ML would be should they play the Cards..

What do you guys think?.. And keep in mind for purposes of this excercise, I am assuming the Cards win SU and if they do, and do so convincingly, I think the ML hedge out might be cheaper than most think..

Thoughts?
 
brewer said:
so we are all assuming Phila is going to blitz?
Click to expand...

Personally I don't think they will, but that has been one of the big arguments from the Eagle backers.. I.E. beware of the Eagles swarming blitzing defense.

And I turn it around brewer.. The easiest time to blitz is at home when the crowd noise is loud and the offense has to use hand signals and simple snap counts to operate..

My thoughts are opposite of most.. I believe the much more dangerous blitz package is going to come from the Cardinals vs chunky soup boy.. An offense in predictable snap counts is at a big disadvantage. And it is a fact that crowd noise is the biggest contributor..

Philly has to hope to get up early and take the noise out of the game.. Could happen but don't see it..
 
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