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CFL Syndicate 2025

Before I go any further this week I want to see the results of Thursday and Friday

Early big consensus is on both dogs and that pulls me back a little bit.
 
week 10 had 137 road points and 130 home points for a total of 267 points for an Avg of 66.7

YTD 1065 road points 1035 home points a total of 2103 in 39 games for an Avg of 53.9 for the year.
 
spottie2935 said:
week 10 had 137 road points and 130 home points for a total of 267 points for an Avg of 66.7

YTD 1065 road points 1035 home points a total of 2103 in 39 games for an Avg of 53.9 for the year.
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And an average total of 51.4 so the games have been averaging 2.5pts over which is a decent gap and yet the o/u is only 20-19 on the year. I still think overs will outpace unders this year.
 
Ok I'm only home for one day between trips so I have to get my bets down tonight...here we go...

1* OTT / WPG over 51.5 -110
Sorry spottie but I think these teams offences have finally started to come alive with their starting QBs and I don't think the market has caught up. I don't think either defence is particularly good either and now winnipeg has lost their best DB, Terrell Bonds for the season. I think this one should be lined about 54.

1* BC Lions -3.5 -112
I think this should be more like 6.5. Montreal is a mess right now and Caleb Evans, who is almost certainly starting, is not a starting level QB in this league. He's a small ball QB and doesn't really have a deep game. You aren't going to beat Rourke and co at home with 210 yards passing which is what he is likely to get.

0.5* Parlay Winnipeg ML / BC ML +107
I just don't see either of these 2 losing this week. Lets see how they prove me wrong.

Good luck everyone.
 
Don’t allow me to distract you. I look at lines and data and your ficus is on players and matchup and lines.

I completely value your observations. Your matchup spyglass helps me.
I can’t help but to reverse last weeks overs but I’ve been wrong and not patient before.

This is still an over year but my brain wants to react right away.

It’s Tuesday I’ll keep digging but the unders and away dogs are my thoughts


I will say the away dog power will dissipate at some point.
 
spottie2935 said:
Don’t allow me to distract you. I look at lines and data and your ficus is on players and matchup and lines.

I completely value your observations. Your matchup spyglass helps me.
I can’t help but to reverse last weeks overs but I’ve been wrong and not patient before.

This is still an over year but my brain wants to react right away.

It’s Tuesday I’ll keep digging but the unders and away dogs are my thoughts


I will say the away dog power will dissipate at some point.
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No worries friend. I have the utmost respect for your methods also.

Lately I've been thinking about how I can divide my bets into two basic types that I call reverse and forward. Reverse bets are when you look at what has previously happened and bet that it is going to continue. Forward bets are when you bet that something is about to change that the market hasn't factored into the number yet.

This bet is a perfect example. For you its a reverse bet...you know this is an under spot with two underish teams and you're betting that will continue. For me, its a forward bet because I agree its an under spot based on the trend you showed and these teams have traditionally been underish teams. But I also see reasons why that is about to change as stated previously and I think that is giving me a good number because the market isn't seeing what I'm seeing.

I honestly don't know which type of bet is better and I use both all the time. I suspect that reverse bets have a lower long-term win% because you are dealing with known information that the market also has so you have to be sharper to beat it. On the other hand, forward bets are great when they work but there is an element of trying to predict the future in them which can be a fool's errand.

Anyway, just the things I think about while I'm toking.
 
I just so happen to be in Winnipeg right now and listening to the radio they said high winds are expected tomorrow afternoon and possible t-storms but it should clear out a little before kickoff. I hope they are right.
 
I just noticed an interesting tidbit this week. 3 of the 4 games feature a team that had a comeback win last week vs a team who lost in the same way.

Ottawa came back to beat Toronto and they play Winnipeg who lost to Calgary LW on a walk off FG
Toronto who collapsed hosting Ottawa LW visits Edmonton who came from behind to beat Montreal LW
Montreal who collapsed at the end LW plays BC who won with a walk off FG in OT
 
Toronto +3 for me.

I think the wrong team is favored. I will fade Edmonton's OL laying points against anyone. The Argos secondary has been dreadful but the DL is 3rd in the league in sacks. Think they get some pressure on that Edmonton OL in this one and mask the bad secondary a bit. They should have a bit o an edge after what happened last week too.

Toronto has given up a ton of points but actually rank better than Edmonton's defense in yards allowed and yards per play. The Elks have 5 sacks on the season. I think the Toronto offense keeps playing well and scores here.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Toronto +3 for me.

I think the wrong team is favored. I will fade Edmonton's OL laying points against anyone. The Argos secondary has been dreadful but the DL is 3rd in the league in sacks. Think they get some pressure on that Edmonton OL in this one and mask the bad secondary a bit. They should have a bit o an edge after what happened last week too.

Toronto has given up a ton of points but actually rank better than Edmonton's defense in yards allowed and yards per play. The Elks have 5 sacks on the season. I think the Toronto offense keeps playing well and scores here.
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Strong lean for me also and I will likely bet if it hits 3.5

Arbuckle has looked significantly better since Kelly was put on the 6gm and Nick knows its his team for the time being. No more watching over his shoulder every week. And his play has showed. The OL play has significantly improved too which really helps. Like you said, the DL has improved and they have found something with Parrish and Chatfield on the ends. And I like that Dinwiddie called out his team after the collapse last week. He was pretty harsh but fair and I think the players will get the message.

The Elks OL is an enigma to me. I thought they started to look solid late LY and its not like they don't have some talent. They just don't seem to be playing as a unit whatsoever. Its like they just met the day of every game. I'd like to blame the new coaching but the OL coach was the only holdover from last year. And Fajardo is not the guy you want behind a bad OL. He's always been at his best when he can use his legs to buy time and let the play develop. You just can't do that behind this OL. They need to go with more rushing and more quick strike passes. The rest of that coaching staff is trash. Kilam makes a lot of in game mistakes and JC Sherrit was a great LB but as a DC, his defence looks completely out of sorts. He's taken a lot of big name players and turned them into nobodies.

Last week's upset win over Montreal was fugazi. That ALs team was totally discombobulated. The Elks will come back down to earth this week while the Argos will show up with some effort. Strong suspicion it hits 3.5 before kick.

My only reservation is the short week with travel for the Argos but the short turnaround may help if they still feel the sting of last week's collapse.
 
Scraping my other bets :

BC Mon under 51 best bet


Ticats +3.5 high scoring team that plays a defensive opponent. I’m taking a shot that a TiCats can score and win.
Sask last 3 games held their opponents under their team total.


I’m waiting on the Thursday night game

Maybe an in bet line shows lean of course to the dog and fade of WPG
 
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In the last 6 WPG games the first half points scored for both teams is 216


that average above 36 points


There isn’t any signs of this stopping but it’s on my radar.
 
spottie2935 said:
Scraping my other bets :

BC Mon under 51 best bet


Ticats +3.5 high scoring team that plays a defensive opponent. I’m taking a shot that a TiCats can score and win.
Sask last 3 games held their opponents under their team total.


I’m waiting on the Thursday night game

Maybe an in bet line shows lean of course to the dog and fade of WPG
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I lean under in BC too. Montreal will struggle to score 20 with Caleb Evans at the helm
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Good luck this week Gents.

Heck of a number grab on BC, Hulu! Boy I'm looking under there. Not sure if I can quite pull the trigger.
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Thanks. I couldn't believe that number when I saw it. I think the mistake the market made was that everyone seemed to think MBT got pulled last week so there was some doubt as to who would start this week. But in a post-game interview Maas stated that he wasn't pulled, he injured his elbow. No one in the media seemed to catch on so when it was confirmed that Evans was taking first team reps the line jumped. Had they watched that interview, they would have known it was Evans.

He's not terrible. Its not a PJ Walker situation. Evans reminds me of David Watford if anyone remembers him. Makes good reads and quick accurate throws and can use his legs to escape when his reads aren't there. Problem is its all short stuff. Once defences key into the fact that he can't really push the ball downfield, they can crowd the box and take away the short game. You just can't win many games without a complete passing game.
 
So I'm in Saskatoon tonight and supposed to fly home tomorrow night but now Air Canada's flight attendants are going on strike so my flight will likely be cancelled. With Air Canada not in service, its going to be nigh on impossible to get out of this town.

I am considering busing down to Regina and catching the Ticats game in Sask tomorrow afternoon. It'd be cool to get to Mosaic since that's the only CFL stadium I've never been to.
 
Hulu said:
So I'm in Saskatoon tonight and supposed to fly home tomorrow night but now Air Canada's flight attendants are going on strike so my flight will likely be cancelled. With Air Canada not in service, its going to be nigh on impossible to get out of this town.

I am considering busing down to Regina and catching the Ticats game in Sask tomorrow afternoon. It'd be cool to get to Mosaic since that's the only CFL stadium I've never been to.
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Our country seems to be struggling. I like you're idea of turning it into an opportunity.
 
So here's my plan...

I have 3 clients to visit tomorrow in Saskatoon and each of those meetings will have roughly 3 people in it, give or take, so I'll be meeting about 9 locals tomorrow. While making small talk, I am going to mention the AC strike and my predicament and how I would make the best of it by going to regina for the riders game tomorrow if only I had a way there. And I think there is a non-zero chance that one of those friendly saskatoonians (saskatoonites?) will know someone who knows someone and hook me up with a free ride.

I'm gonna make the no vig odds for the success of my plan about +180
 
Tonight I’m off my rocker as I did my diligence in the data aspect of this matchup.

My findings are that 2 low winning % teams with a home small favorite. The home team finds a way

With Fajardo in place things not stable but improving. I had the Argos as a fade all season and I’m sticking with that tonight.

The dogs have been incredible covering 5 in a row now and the Argos I hope ruin this.

Taking a shot here after last nights “miracle”dog cover. Down 27-10


Elks-3.5 +110
 
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Home teams are currently 3-17 ATS in the last 20 games dating back to 07-07-25

Yea I’m catching a falling knife tonight in hopes the the Argos remain in regression
 
Seeing as the Argos last 2 games went over the total by 22 and 34 points I’m fading the over here as Edmonton is not an over type team and this is the highest Edmonton total on the season

Elks-3.5 +110
Under 54 -113 I’d like to find a lower number with +juice but that’s not available
 
The last night comeback and all these recent dogs I’m thinking that the rest of the week is favorites.

Edmonton plays home vs 2-7 Argos
Sask at home
BC against a team that is currently off the map.

The home teams fight back
 
spottie2935 said:
Home teams are currently 3-17 ATS in the last 20 games dating back to 07-07-25

Yea I’m catching a falling knife tonight in hopes the the Argos remain in regression
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It’s why I’m so confused and conservative and flip flopping. Everything out of balance again. I’m getting this week and gonna cut out soon

What’s left back and forth and confusion
 
Good call on the under @spottie2935

As I said back in my season previews, watch out for Edmonton. There's a lot of talent on this team and when they put it together, they will be a tough out. It looks like Sask and Calgary will finish atop the west but the battle for third and the possible crossover will be interesting.
 
Got one of the last tickets available for the Hamilton / Sask game tomorrow. I had to pay triple price on stub hub and there were tickets on there going for $800. Thats unreal for a CFL regular season game. I'm looking forward to my first trip to Mosaic.

So I ended up bussing to Regina and I'm stuck here for 2 nights. Getting flights is impossible now that the airline that accounts for probably 65% of air travel in this country at a dead stop. I finally managed to get on a flight though. For a mere $2259 I managed to get on a flight that goes to Edmonton, then Atlanta, then to Buffalo and from there I have family that will pick me up.
 
Hulu said:
Got one of the last tickets available for the Hamilton / Sask game tomorrow. I had to pay triple price on stub hub and there were tickets on there going for $800. Thats unreal for a CFL regular season game. I'm looking forward to my first trip to Mosaic.

So I ended up bussing to Regina and I'm stuck here for 2 nights. Getting flights is impossible now that the airline that accounts for probably 65% of air travel in this country at a dead stop. I finally managed to get on a flight though. For a mere $2259 I managed to get on a flight that goes to Edmonton, then Atlanta, then to Buffalo and from there I have family that will pick me up.
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Man and with the eventual hurricane coming into the Southeast the weather is going to cause a ton of cancellations down that way too as it progresses and goes God knows where over the weekend. Hope you don't get screwed on the Atlanta part of that.
 
KJ said:
Man and with the eventual hurricane coming into the Southeast the weather is going to cause a ton of cancellations down that way too as it progresses and goes God knows where over the weekend. Hope you don't get screwed on the Atlanta part of that.
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Oh for fucks sake

Looking at the forecast there I think I will be through a day or two before any after effects of Erin hit.
 
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Just look at this stunning scenery. Who wouldn’t want to spend time trapped here?

IMG_4703.jpeg
 
I have to say I kind of like the over 54 today. I made the number 55.5

OTOH there is some pretty hefty wind here. Mosaic is one of the more shielded stadiums in the league though so its hard to say how much the winds affect the game.
 
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