CFL Syndicate 2025

1* BC / EDM over 50.5 -110

I think this total is set way too low. Edmonton's defence has been a work in progress and they haven't allowed less than 31 in any game so far. With Rourke at the helm, I don't see why BC won't do the same. They haven't been a scoring machine on paper but when you look at the only 2 games Rourke has played fully, they put up 31 vs this same EDM team in week 1 and last week squandered chance after chance on the road vs the best defence in the league. Going thw other way, Tre Ford has begun to settle down and throw from the pocket and their offense has gotten steadily better. No reason why they shouldn't be able to put up at least the high 20s vs a defence still missing several starters on the DL. I made this number 54 and I think it flies over this total.
 
in my opinion true regression begins this week. I might be a week early but if that’s the case the lines will reflect that in week 8.

I am a little tentative about the low lines according to the outputs so these are not big bets.

Im playing chess with the books and lines. Setting everything up for the check mate.

Calgary +5.5

Sask favorites in all games so far and a favorite here after a bye week. These a whole bunch of data against them this week and Calgary is much better this season. For that reason I’m taking the dog.
=+=+=+=+=+=++**=+++*++

Under Ott and Hamilton it’s 54.5 at the moment but I won’t buy in until I see a bigger line. North of 56. Now that probably won’t happen before kick off but these 2 teams have completely destroyed totals. The data suggests the under but not until the total reaches 56.
As much as the 4th quarter overs and 2nd half overs have crushed it. I predict this to be a first half crush and a 2nd half back off.
With a total that should be in the 58 or more according to the data this sits at 54.5 and for that reason I have to be patient and wait this out.

Hulu this could be a game to middle with your good number. Just a thought.

+=++=+===++=+++==+++

BC-3

Elks same line last week again Ottawa.

BC back on the map (barely) against a solid Montreal team. Back to back home dogs after a win and a small line? Elks, basically have to be winning at some point to cover ? Okay I guess the back door could happen but on a +3 line odds are against the back door?

I’ll take a shot bc wins a half in this one and -3 is locked in.

=+=+==++==++=++==++=+++==+¥¥¥+

Plays :

Calgary+5.5
Under Hamilton north of 56
BC -3
 
Edit but it’s only posting here doesn’t matter. Beto line hasBC-2.5 so I’ll edit the original post line

Plays :

Calgary+5.5
Under Hamilton north of 56
BC -2.5

I could have used BC -4 +137 but I’m already skittish about laying points.
 

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I agree with Calgary and BC but not quite enough to pull the trigger.

Sask is off a bye and Calgary might be in for a bit of a let down off their upset win of the Bombers last week. I think Calgary keeps it close but I could also see a comfortable Sask win. At home they always seem to have those 'avalanche' type games where they get rolling and the defence scores and they just run away in the 4th. Maybe I've seen one too many of those type of games.

I also lean BC and I think they always have a chance to win with Rourke leading them. As long as they stay within one score, he can always seem to pull a rabbit out of his hat when he needs it. But their defence is still a wreck with multiple DL out which should let the Elks run all over them. Also, BC on the second straight road game while the Elks haven't left Edmonton in weeks. I lean BC but don't really trust them to cover any sort of spread.

I don't think I'll have anything beyond the 2 totals this week but I might look at props as gameday approaches.
 
BC DL Turay has been suspended for the next game due to the brawl in Montreal.

Unless they get some guys back from the injured list, they'll be thin on the DL going up against a team who loves to run
 
I’ll play the under in the first game.

I’ll very much reconsider BC due to your diligent behavior 🙃. I hope you get that is humor. I appreciate your comments.

I was really thinking BC had momentum now and the Elks are the Elks but now I’m flip flipping with your thoughts in the injuries. I want to find opportunities to take BC but right now they are best as dogs.
 
spottie2935 said:
I’ll play the under in the first game.

I’ll very much reconsider BC due to your diligent behavior 🙃. I hope you get that is humor. I appreciate your comments.

I was really thinking BC had momentum now and the Elks are the Elks but now I’m flip flipping with your thoughts in the injuries. I want to find opportunities to take BC but right now they are best as dogs.
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Looking at the updated injury report, BC might not be so bad off. The 4 injured DL, Debaille, Hendrix, Tavai & Moore are all listed as 'limited' today. Good chance that a couple of them are well enough to make the roster this week and as long as they can get that, they should be ok.

I agree with BC but I just have this little feeling in my gut that says edm might just compete here.
 
Hulu said:
Looking at the updated injury report, BC might not be so bad off. The 4 injured DL, Debaille, Hendrix, Tavai & Moore are all listed as 'limited' today. Good chance that a couple of them are well enough to make the roster this week and as long as they can get that, they should be ok.

I agree with BC but I just have this little feeling in my gut that says edm might just compete here.
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Because BC can’t sustain at the moment. Part of me thinks they can stand up and start something after a win, the other side of me say their poor history because of being over rated by the lines is holding them back.

It’s been Wii iPad first and Montreal second and now Saskatchewan is coming up. BC is last of the best in my opinion.

Now Calgary is coming up and they are underrated by looking only at the lines and their successful.

I am starting to see parody and dog next favorite gain some credibility the opposite might also have merit but within that some teams have to be eliminated. I’ll keep digging for more in formation
 
Overs are 11-6 last 17 games

The favorites stared the season 8-3 now starting to pull back. 3-6 ats last 9

The matchups recently are much more in tune with being competitive.

It takes a few weeks for teams like Edmonton and Ottawa to get going.

The other thing is the lines stat adjusting to them nicely. Now I will say it’s not good when they face a talented team they shows consistency. It’s the other games they should have more success.

All totals are in the 50’s now and the unders are going to start maintaining closer to 50-50. I don’t yet see unders being dominate but I don’t see overs sustaing the consistency that the season is trending on.

Teams that didn’t cover their 6 point teaser the previous week are 3-8 ATS in the week following.


A dog in the current week is 4-1 ats this season if the next week they will be favorites.

This eliminates bottom teams that’s are not winning games. Edmonton is the most notable. We’re are seeing better teams like BC, Winnipeg start being dogs. Photo below of the dog teams.

More later as I find my thoughts
 

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So trying to meander thru some of this isi g next weeks schedule and power ratings as a guide.

BC is home to Saskatchewan next week. Is there a possibility that BC is a small home favorite? What if BC scores a lot and covers this week? What if , as I predict Sask loses this week?

BC-2 this scenario would mean I am correct to fade Sask this week but within that it’s marginal. Because next weeks line is uncertain.

Ottawa has been favorites twice already and at home next week to the TiCats. If Ottawa takes care of business this week or at least covers they are home chalk next week? Again I can’t say that with any certainty.
 
Sask covered all games and. The last game was the only dominant game ats margin was 17 points past the line.

Sask, They have scored 28+ in all games so far.

Calgary 3-1 record 3-1 and also ATS. Coming in off a huge win over WPG. Big ats margin also. I personally like dogs like this dogs are not regression teams unless they have losing records.

Ottawa had their 3rd game in which the over was at least 10 points over the line. They are 1-4 both su,ats.



BC, before last week had 3 games in which they failed to cover. In their first game slept walked thru the first 3 quarters. Before last week their ats marins were -18,-8 and -17. Last week was their best bet regression week now back to favorites.

I’m holding my BC in hopes they turned the corner. A loss here and once again will lose another teamer. They are the worst in the league at this stage (in the selected recent history).
 
I see one really good player prop I like and if today's injury report looks favourable, I'll be hitting it this evening.
 
2025 best teams so far as dogs


WPG 1-0 they were dogs against BC

BC 1-2 versus.WPG,MTL,Sask

Sask 0-0

MTL 0-0

CALG 3-0 versus: Ham,Tor,WPG


Combined these teams 5-2 because of Calgary 3-0. The rest of the teams as dogs 4-9 ATS. Maybe we’re getting more parody but as of now no. Still very top heavy as far as profits.

These teams as favorites ATS :

Sask 4-0 versus :Ott,Tor,Ham,BC (noRourke)
MTL 3-2
BC 1-1
WPG 2-1

Really Sask has been elite but I think part of that is schedule as well.

Now we have the profits here:
The bad teams as favorites (so these are the teams that are favorites next dogs)

Ott,CALG,Tor,Edm,Ham, are a combined
1-5 ats

Guess what :

favorite next dogs 0-5 ATS
DOG next favorite 5-1 ATS




I’m on CALG because of a data situation but in terms of schedule this opponent is elevated. On the flip side this opponent is in a data regression situation.

I have bet the dog here but I left room in case Sask gets a lead. This might be a back door situation with a more comfortable line during play.
 
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I agree with you on Calgary. I see it edging toward 6 at pinnacle. If it weren't for saks being at home off a bye, I think I would be on the stamps here too. I might yet get involved.
 
When you take a look at Sask this year, who have they beaten?

Week 1 They beat Ottawa at home in a close game. Won by 5
Week 2 They went to Hamilton and beat a poor cats team that hadn't put things together yet. Won by 5
Week 3 Went to Toronto and beat a bad Argos team with Arbuckle at the helm. Won by 7
Week 4 Beat BC at home in a game where Jeremiah Masoli started for BC and threw 3 really bad picks. Won by 19.

They're 4-0 but I don't really see an impressive win there.

Calgary hasn't really played a tough sched either, also winning against Hamilton and Toronto and losing vs Ottawa in the monsoon game. But to me they've consistently looked better than expected. Their dismantling of WInnipeg last week was impressive although the Bombers did look flat.

This game should be competitive. If this gets to 6 flat, I think the value is squarely on the stamps

Its worth remembering that Sask has the largest fan base in the league and the lines always tend to move their direction as kickoff approaches. I think when fading Sask, its best to do it late.
 
according to data the best play this week are

CALG +5.5

Edm: qualifies in a basic data search but after adding in more details because they have been and will continue to be dogs unless they can elevate past these lines and get a favorable matchup.

Yes Edmonton is a play but it’s considered to be very iffy and weaker.
 
Lastly about Edm.
Home dogs this week next week line> +7 (because they are at Sask next game, after their bye week)
These dogs ATS % is 38% (something like 44-66?)not exact but close to this. Im guessing because I deleted the tab and don’t recall the exact record but it’s around 100 results and more than 60 ATS losses)

Edmonton off a win last week and again a home dog. A win here this week and a bye next week would lower that line when in Saskatchewan in 2 weeks.
 
Hulu said:
When you take a look at Sask this year, who have they beaten?

Week 1 They beat Ottawa at home in a close game. Won by 5
Week 2 They went to Hamilton and beat a poor cats team that hadn't put things together yet. Won by 5
Week 3 Went to Toronto and beat a bad Argos team with Arbuckle at the helm. Won by 7
Week 4 Beat BC at home in a game where Jeremiah Masoli started for BC and threw 3 really bad picks. Won by 19.

They're 4-0 but I don't really see an impressive win there.

Calgary hasn't really played a tough sched either, also winning against Hamilton and Toronto and losing vs Ottawa in the monsoon game. But to me they've consistently looked better than expected. Their dismantling of WInnipeg last week was impressive although the Bombers did look flat.

This game should be competitive. If this gets to 6 flat, I think the value is squarely on the stamps

Its worth remembering that Sask has the largest fan base in the league and the lines always tend to move their direction as kickoff approaches. I think when fading Sask, its best to do it late.
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Dallas Cowboys of 3 down nation!?
 
B.A.R. said:
Dallas Cowboys of 3 down nation!?
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Pretty much yeah. There's so little to do in Sask and no other pro teams that they're all fans. In terms of merchandise sales, they beat out every other pro team in Canada except the Leafs and Habs.

And there's more sask-born people living outside sask than in it. They're everywhere and they're all watermelon heads.
 
Don’t talk about Regina because I know Lynn and AL from ALLynn Steel but they are probably dead now. Just a couple of hosers I met thru my father selling steel. Took em to a Blackhawks game back in the day. So much hype for Chicago Stadium in the 1980s they had to see it. And yes I’m being a jokester 💥😂💥
 
Home favorites in week =1 were 3-0 ats


since 2-4 ats


=+=+=+=+=+=++=+=++==

2024 Season H and F 28-26 ats and 36-18 SU



+=++=++=+=++=++=+++=*+


Away favorites on a 13-6 su run and 12-7 ats

The away favorites this season on a 4-0 totals over run. With Edmonton playing this could be under as their success is playing keep away with running game
 
Looks like the weather won't be an issue tonight in Regina. Air quality might be but the forecast shows most of the smoke blowing out by kickoff.
 
Alright...seeing some pushback now so I'm gonna lock it in...

1* Calgary +6 -109

Taken at Pinnacle
 
Looks like its gonna close at 6 and the total dropped back down to 52.5. Thats a bit interesting...you don't see totals come down at close very often.

See ya in the in-game
 
all my previously posted week 6 plays...

1* Calgary +6 -109
1* OTT / HAM over 53.5 -113
1* BC / EDM over 50.5 -110

GL to all this week!
 
So, 4 pm Eastern tomorrow for the Calgary game.

Does this change any thoughts on the wagers?

Do we think the number changes much at all when reopened?
 
B.A.R. said:
So, 4 pm Eastern tomorrow for the Calgary game.

Does this change any thoughts on the wagers?

Do we think the number changes much at all when reopened?
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The data is still super strong against teams that have not failed to cover in at least 4 games played.

I am really confident in good CFL dogs. It’s the bad teams I can’t win with. That includes Ottawa tomorrow night.

I am too tired to dig into that one fully but at a glance I doubt any team’s strength of schedule has been more difficult tgat Ticats so far. This is the Ticats easiest game if they don’t sleep walk.
 
B.A.R. said:
So, 4 pm Eastern tomorrow for the Calgary game.

Does this change any thoughts on the wagers?

Do we think the number changes much at all when reopened?
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I am not eager to jump back on Calgary. According to reports, they were due to fly out after the game last night and had no accommodations booked. So rescheduling the game means they had to find rooms for 70+ people, late at night in the summer vacation season. I don't know the details but it raises questions in my head...

Were they able to get enough rooms or do they have guys staying 3,4,5,6 to a room?
When were they able to get in and get to sleep? They wouldn't have left the stadium until at least 11:30pm local and then who knows how many different hotels they had to go to to find enough rooms so some guys may not have gotten in until early in the morning.

Meanwhile the Riders got to go home and sleep in their own beds.

Without knowing the situation, there's enough risk of a bad night there that I am not going to jump back on the Stamps until I know more.
 
Back in the day, teams visiting Hamilton used to stay outside the city and keep their hotel secret because the cats fans were that crazy. One year there was an important late-season game against edmonton and their hotel info leaked. Me and about 15 other ticats fans went to the hotel in Burlington at about 1am and basically started a block party in the hotel parking lot...drinking, horns honking, Oskee Wee Wee chants, you name it. The hotel manager finally called the cops to disperse us but I think we did the damage we were looking to do.

The cats won the game although we'll never know if our merry band of crazed fans helped or not. I like to think we did.

Thats back when being a fan meant something. Now its sitting on your hands drinking $12 beers. Times have changed.
 
So far I've scoured the internet and the only thing I can find out about Calgary was that "the stampeders were able to find hotels in the area"

Note the plural: hotels

I'll bet some of these guys didn't get in until 2 or 3 am. OTOH they are young guys so may a few hours less sleep won't hurt that much.
 
In Hamilton, a hot, humid day about 29 at game time (~88F). Slight chance of rain and risk of t-storms but <50%. Some gusty wind to start but should die down relatively quickly.
 
Alright I'm switching gears here because I don't like the position the stamps have been put in and I think the RIders should pull this one out even if its close. HFA will make the difference today.

I also like Hamilton today after seeing Ottawa's injury report. They still have multiple OL out, LB Frankie Griffin out, DL Aidan John out, starting safety Justin Howell out, backup safety Charlie RIngland out, CB Deandre Lamont out. Hamilton should win this game and I still expect it to fly over the number.

1* Tease Saskatchewan pk / Hamilton +0.5 +100

I don't normally tease in the CFL but a parlay was -102 so I'm getting 2 cents of value plus a half point on the cats in the extremely unlikely event of a tie.

I'm heading to the splash pad with my little girl. Best of luck today!
 
More info on Calgary’s night. Obv not ideal.

Calgary Stampeders (3-1) will rest overnight before reconvening to determine the West Division leader. The Stamps successfully secured lodging despite multiple events pushing many Regina hotels to capacity, though they will be spread out across multiple locations, including the University of Regina dorms. The Riders have agreed to assist with their laundry and logistics to help alleviate those issues.
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BAR if you have any questions please like one of my posts so I can see a red notification. If I do t see any activity I won’t check any threads. If I post something I mean it until I come back and repost a change. People might be following me so I am conscious about updates.
 
I’m not playing tonight I don’t like the way the books are doing BCs lines. Some had -3 less juice done gas -2.5 more juice. When it’s confusing and not congruent I’ll wait and play in game. 3-0 week with Calgary and both unders so far.
 
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