CFL Syndicate 2025

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#3DownNation
Yes I'm back for another year. I've taken on a new job with lots more responsibility and travel which has pretty much ended my sports betting pastime but I am going to try and give the CFL another go since its been so fun and profitable over the years. I'll probably have fewer plays and posts this year but I am inviting all syndicate members and clingers to pick up the slack and keep this tradition going. I've only had one losing season since I started this in 2017 and the collaboration makes us all better bettors.

My lifetime record since 2011 is 1004-772 56.5% +190.45* I should note that the past 3 seasons have been in the 54-55% range whereas prior to that it was always in the 56-58% range so the lines aren't as loose as they once were but there is still plenty of room to make some $$

The 2025 draft goes tonight and it it the most interesting draft I can remember in years. For starters, instead of being loaded with OL which it typically is, there is only one decent OL prospect in Christian Fortin out of UConn. What we do have is a cornucopia of defensive line talent including at least 5 prospects who could step in as day 1 starters. A couple of them have accepted NFL rookie camp invites but those rarely pan out so there is a lot of defensive talent available. Conner Shay out of Wyoming is also a legit MLB prospect who could be a day 1 impact player for the right team (cough...Hamilton...cough). He has accepted a mini-camp invite with the Jets so maybe he falls to round 2.

Also this year we have something I've never seen in my lifetime, 4 legit QB prospects in the CFL draft. This is a huge sea change from the past where nat QBs were rare. Leading the pack is Taylor Elgersma out of Waterloo who garnered serious NFL interest before being passed over in the draft and garnering only mini-camp invites. He could be a CFL star one day. There is also Kurtis Rourke although he is more of a late-round gamble since he was drafted by the 49ers and will likely bounce around the NFL for a few years at least. There are also UMontreal and Laval QBs who have a decent chance to be drafted as projects.

As usual, I'll be watching every moment through every round. On a personal note, I am really hoping Hamilton selects DL Darien Newell out of Queens. He is about the most polished DL prospect ever to come out of USports and he could be an impact player on a team that desperately needs defensive help. Conner Shay would also be a good choice as the team lacks a true MLB and really only have Ryan Baker, who's played only half a eason, penciled in at that position.

As time goes on I'll try to get some team by team writeups and training camp updates going before preseason starts in late May. Winning sports betting doesn't just happen, you have to work for it. As dad always said..."The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary"

Bets of luck to everyone this year and lets do some damage!
 
Damien Alford out of Utah goes first overall to Calgary. Not surprising since they desperately need receiving help.
 
3 QBs went last night with Elgersma going to Winnipeg, Rourke going to Sask and Jonathan Senecal going to Montreal. First time 3 QBs have been selected since 2001 apparently.

Elgersma is an interesting case. He blew away the USports world but the caveat is always that its USports so the level of competition isn't there. Usports used to be compared to NCAA D2 but I think its improved over the past decade to the point that the top 2 or 3 treams wouldn't look out of place in the MAC. He was the first USports QB ever invited to the senior bowl and didn't look out of place there. Then at the U Buffalo pro day he performed well enough that several NFL scouts requested to see him throw more. He had a top30 visit with Green Bay and was subsequently invited to mini camps with the Packers and Bills. His arm talent is undeniable and he comes pre-programmed knowing the 3down game unlike so many other QBs who have to learn the nuances. It will be interesting to see how he develops.

Montreal and Toronto had very good drafts as they always seemed to. Hamilton, as usual went a bit off the board after their first pick but basically loaded up on defense with a bunch of project players. They passed twice on Newell which had me screaming at the TV and he was picked 11th by Edmonton. I'm not sure the cats really got much immediate help on the DL.

One early take is that Hamilton with be a massive OVER team this year. With Bo Levi Mitchell having his best season in about 6 or 7 years in 2024, playing behind a solid OL with plenty of depth and with the receiving talent they loaded up on in free agency, they should have no trouble scoring in the 30s virtually every game. Their defence will struggle to stop anyone though and may end up being a league worst. The secondary looks solid but the front 7 are a real question mark. You have to be able to pressure the QB in a passing league and I question their ability to do so. I see a lot of 38-35 games at the ol donut box this year. It'll be a fun watch if nothing else.

The free agency winner this year was definitely the Elks. They absolutely loaded up with proven guys, especially on defence which was their achilles heel last season. It will take some time but once they put it all together, they will be a dangerous team. That is assuming that Tre Ford can carry the offense on his shoulders. I have my doubts about Ford but if nothing else he is damn fun to watch running all over the place.
 
Toronto may also be a good over bet. With Kelly back leading the offense for a full season behind their still solid OL, they will score. Meanwhile they lost their top 5 DL, mostly to the Elks but one to the Browns, they have a lot to replace on that side of the ball.

Hamilton-Toronto games will be like the good old days of 45-41. They won't be able to set the totals high enough.
 
You know I do this every year. By January I need a football vacation and I don't even think about it until April or so. I start wondering if I've lost the hunger to put in the work and consider throwing in the betting towel. Maybe I've been doing this too long, maybe I'm too old etc etc.

Then I watch the draft. The juices start flowing, things start clicking in my head and the obsession begins anew.

Make no mistake...IT'S ON for 2025!
 

Newell was selected for random drug testing on Wednesday, March 19 while at the 2025 CFL Combine in Regina, SK. His sample tested positive for the following banned substances:

  • GW501516
  • Ibutamoren
  • SARM Ostarine (S-22)
  • SARM LGD-4033
  • Testosterone
  • Nandrolone
  • Drostanolone
  • Norclostebol
  • Oxandrolone

Gonna be kind of hard to blame that list on some cough medicine. No wonder he's been a one man wrecking crew in the middle. Dude was juiced to the gills.

Now its making sense. Newell should've gone number 1 overall IMO and I couldn't believe he fell to the second round.
 
You know I do this every year. By January I need a football vacation and I don't even think about it until April or so. I start wondering if I've lost the hunger to put in the work and consider throwing in the betting towel. Maybe I've been doing this too long, maybe I'm too old etc etc.

Then I watch the draft. The juices start flowing, things start clicking in my head and the obsession begins anew.

Make no mistake...IT'S ON for 2025!

If my wife was gonna live thru season I woulda did something like thst! She a tough as girl I wouldn’t marry a girl who couldn’t stick it out till she was ready. We have few more good memories but in gotta be myself and do the me she loves so much!! That shit hurts!!!
 
hello guys


Thursday week 1 dogs 16-3 ATS

Week 1 dogs and their next game a favorite 27-5 ats : Argos

Week 1 dogs on Friday night 14-5 ats

Saturday dogs are 50-50

Week 1 dogs in Non Saturday games in which the dog did not participate in as many as 3 playoffs games last season and their opponents also did not participate in 3 playoffs games 38-6 ats

Plays :

Argos
R.Blacks / Riders; dog team
Stamps eliminated as a game is Saturday.
Elks/Lions dog team

Argos scored so many playoff points I will take the under as regression to that.

Argos are not guaranteed to be dogs. I check back when the lines are available.

Thursday and Friday dogs no matter are in okay and the under Argos are what I’m looking at.
 
hello guys


Thursday week 1 dogs 16-3 ATS

Week 1 dogs and their next game a favorite 27-5 ats : Argos

Week 1 dogs on Friday night 14-5 ats

Saturday dogs are 50-50

Week 1 dogs in Non Saturday games in which the dog did not participate in as many as 3 playoffs games last season and their opponents also did not participate in 3 playoffs games 38-6 ats

Plays :

Argos
R.Blacks / Riders; dog team
Stamps eliminated as a game is Saturday.
Elks/Lions dog team

Argos scored so many playoff points I will take the under as regression to that.

Argos are not guaranteed to be dogs. I check back when the lines are available.

Thursday and Friday dogs no matter are in okay and the under Argos are what I’m looking at.

The CFL Syndicate trend master himself.

Glad to see you back for another year my man.
 
Preseason schedule. Nice and short. 2 weeks until the first preseason game.

May 7 – Rookie Camps open
  • First-year players will take the field with their new clubs.
May 10 – Rosters reduced to 85 players
  • Cutdowns to take place by 11:59 p.m. ET, excluding non-counters.
May 11 – Training camps open
  • All nine clubs officially open camp.
May 13 – Rosters reduced to 75 players
  • Cutdowns to take place by 11:59 p.m. ET, excluding non-counters.
Preseason Week 1
  • Monday, May 19 | CGY at BC | 4 p.m. ET
Preseason Week 2
  • Saturday, May 24 | OTT at MTL | 4 p.m. ET
  • Saturday, May 24 | SSK at WPG | 4 p.m. ET
  • Saturday, May 24 | TOR at HAM | 7 p.m. ET
  • Saturday, May 24 | EDM at CGY | 9:30 p.m. ET
Preseason Week 3
  • Friday, May 30 | HAM at TOR | 7 p.m. ET
  • Friday, May 30 | MTL at OTT | 7 p.m. ET
  • Friday, May 30 | WPG at SSK | 9 p.m. ET
  • Friday, May 30 | BC at EDM | 9:30 p.m. ET

May 31 – End of training camp
 
@Teapot9
Dude...Larry Thompson went on a little shopping spree in free agency and this team looks loaded. Stacked defence at every level, improved OL, new coaching. It'll take a while to get it all together but the Elkskimos will get hot in the back half of the season.
 
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@Teapot9
Dude...Larry Thompson went on a little shopping spree in free agency and this team looks loaded. Stacked defence at every level, improved OL, new coaching. It'll take a while to get it all together but the Elkskimos will get hot in the back half of the season.
Ive been waiting patiently ever since the Warren moon era
 
Ok here's my CFL deep cut trivia question for 2025...

For most of their existence, Hamilton's CFL team (and the oldest professional football team in the world) was known as the Tigers. But in 1941 they were forced to temporarily cease operations due to many of their players heroically answering the call to fight the axis of evil in Europe. Its interesting to note that Toronto Argonauts continued to play through WW2 because the sons of privilege who made up their team, strangely didn't get drafted. And they're proud of this!

Anyway, a group of returning WW2 airmen formed a new club to take the Tigers place and called themselves the Hamilton Flying Wildcats. They played for a few seasons but when the Tigers re-formed a few years later, both teams were struggling so they decided to merge and form the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. In all the Flying Wildcats played for 9 seasons and won 1 Grey Cup. To this day, there are 2 things that survive from the old Flying Wildcats...the 'Cats' in Tiger-Cats is one. What is the other??
 
Ok here's my CFL deep cut trivia question for 2025...

For most of their existence, Hamilton's CFL team (and the oldest professional football team in the world) was known as the Tigers. But in 1941 they were forced to temporarily cease operations due to many of their players heroically answering the call to fight the axis of evil in Europe. Its interesting to note that Toronto Argonauts continued to play through WW2 because the sons of privilege who made up their team, strangely didn't get drafted. And they're proud of this!

Anyway, a group of returning WW2 airmen formed a new club to take the Tigers place and called themselves the Hamilton Flying Wildcats. They played for a few seasons but when the Tigers re-formed a few years later, both teams were struggling so they decided to merge and form the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. In all the Flying Wildcats played for 9 seasons and won 1 Grey Cup. To this day, there are 2 things that survive from the old Flying Wildcats...the 'Cats' in Tiger-Cats is one. What is the other??
Hmmmm

This is a good one.

Is it simple and I'm overlooking?

OT: I had my Hamilton polo on last week.
 
Ok here's my CFL deep cut trivia question for 2025...

For most of their existence, Hamilton's CFL team (and the oldest professional football team in the world) was known as the Tigers. But in 1941 they were forced to temporarily cease operations due to many of their players heroically answering the call to fight the axis of evil in Europe. Its interesting to note that Toronto Argonauts continued to play through WW2 because the sons of privilege who made up their team, strangely didn't get drafted. And they're proud of this!

Anyway, a group of returning WW2 airmen formed a new club to take the Tigers place and called themselves the Hamilton Flying Wildcats. They played for a few seasons but when the Tigers re-formed a few years later, both teams were struggling so they decided to merge and form the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. In all the Flying Wildcats played for 9 seasons and won 1 Grey Cup. To this day, there are 2 things that survive from the old Flying Wildcats...the 'Cats' in Tiger-Cats is one. What is the other??
Is it because the Tiger Cat on my favourite golf shirt looks like he’s flying?

(I really want there to be a Shreveport Pirates connection somewhere)
 
Have you ever visited the CFL HOF? And if so, where is it?
Many times. I used to live about a 2 min walk away from it in downtown Hamilton. $5 to enter and they always gave away goodies. One time they gave me an unsold ticket from the 1985 Grey Cup. They also gave away old programs and such. But it was occupying prime downtown real estate so the city decided to move it into Tim Hortons field several years back. Its open during every Ticats home game and otherwise a couple of days a week.

My fav HOF memory was the induction of Warren Moon and when they revealed the bust, it was awful. You think the D Wade statue was bad...this was orders of magnitude worse. It looked like a shrunken head. The league later quietly replaced it with a better version.

Here's the old HOF building in Hamilton. That metal sculpture is now at one of the Tim Hortons field gates. I always loved that sculpture.

1746846165124.jpeg
 
Just realized I have to stop calling it Tim Hortons Field as Timmies sponsorship has ended and the team is looking for a new stadium sponsor. I was thinking of starting a gofundme to rename it "The Litterbox"

Or maybe CTG could step in and make a bid. How about it @B.A.R. ? CappingTheGame Field? Or maybe something like what they do in KC..."CTG Field at Ivor Wynne Stadium" That gets the corporate name in there while respecting the history.
 
@Hulu is there a legit service that I can use to check my chance of being admitted into Canada? Grey Cup in Winnipeg this year and I’m itching to stay at the Courtyard by Marriott at the Peg airport.
 
Here you go @Teapot9


Basically if you have a criminal conviction in the past you can apply in advance for some sort of waiver that deems you rehabilitated enough to be admissible. Basically it seems if the crime wasn't super serious and enough time has passed without any further infractions, you should be able to come.

You can apply for a rehabilitation here.


I will be at the cup this year. Part of my new job includes overseeing a branch in Winnipeg and I am pretty sure I can find a legit business reason for me to be there that week so I can expense it. And if the tabbies can somehow cobble together enough of a defence, they have a dark horse shot of getting there.
 
Here you go @Teapot9


Basically if you have a criminal conviction in the past you can apply in advance for some sort of waiver that deems you rehabilitated enough to be admissible. Basically it seems if the crime wasn't super serious and enough time has passed without any further infractions, you should be able to come.

You can apply for a rehabilitation here.


I will be at the cup this year. Part of my new job includes overseeing a branch in Winnipeg and I am pretty sure I can find a legit business reason for me to be there that week so I can expense it. And if the tabbies can somehow cobble together enough of a defence, they have a dark horse shot of getting there.
IMG_7320.jpeg Canada needs to chill
 
Favorite
Season>2017
The favorite failed to cover their last game and could be on an ats streak

The dog isn’t too bad because in the dogs next game they will not be a dog of +9 or higher. Now the books don’t show early lines but if you can look at history and future schedules you can put a line and make a close assumption. If it’s in question it’s a pass.

Same with the favorites next line. We don’t want to fade a powerhouse so their next line is not more than -10 any higher than -9.5 then the favorite the current week is not meant to be faded.


What I am doing here is trying to take the dog in a game in which the game is fairly even. Emphasis on fairly. In the past (since 8i have been paying close attention). It was Calgary and Winnipeg as dominant teams. Well we don’t want to fade those teams when they are steamrolling every team. So our favorite isn’t that team. And our dog isn’t Ottawa from a few seasons back and even Toronto a few seasons ago couldn’t do much. Edmonton and Saskatchewan went dry a few seasons since 2017.
We are playing against a team that didn’t cover so that is weakness. And weak favorites make good dogs.

I added some weeks but those are not relevant.
 
Okay, thx to you I went and did more investigating. Since killer sports took away CFL I have to use gimme the dog. Now it’s not an irrelevant site but it’s not top notch either. In the above query it has a few missing seasons so the data is not accurate.

On the other hand I did my own basic back testing and in 2024 a favorite that didn’t cover their last game was 14-21 ATS.

I only back tested last season. It looked like gold, but it’s more like silver, but still valuable.
 
I don’t have time to double check the website for accuracy. Of the 2 websites I use the CFL database on gimnethedog.com is my least favorite. That being said, the CFL is all about the who is who. Don’t fade strong and don’t take the weak. .500 teams as favorites is the best fades as long as they aren’t playing the weakest link.

Best data is A dog and their going to be favorites next week and the week after that favorites again

Similarly the opposite also works well Favorites then dog and then dog again.

It’s showing the weakness and strength in the scheduling. It also creates regression if the team covers a few in a row. Middle teams don’t keep going strong in most cases.
 
Taylor Elgersma signs with the Packers making him the first USports QB to sign in the NFL since the 80s. I don't think Jordan Love is in any danger but I do see what the team saw in Elgersma. From a pro perspective, he's incredibly raw but him arm talent is undeniable. It will be interesting to see if he can make the active roster or ends up spending his career on the PR.
 
Taylor Elgersma signs with the Packers making him the first USports QB to sign in the NFL since the 80s. I don't think Jordan Love is in any danger but I do see what the team saw in Elgersma. From a pro perspective, he's incredibly raw but him arm talent is undeniable. It will be interesting to see if he can make the active roster or ends up spending his career on the PR.
He played college ball in Ontario?
 
Ok time for some basic team previews. No time to write up the detailed reports that I have in the past but I want to get something down to be able to look back on during the season to see whats changed. Going from East to West...

Montreal
In the early season I like matchups of continuity vs non-continuity and the ALs have probably the most year over year roster continuity in the league right now with one major exception at QB.
Montreal's last 2 seasons have been mirror images of one another. In 2023 they struggled through the first half of the season but made some shrewd mid-season acquisitions and a couple of rookie surprises emerged to turn that around. They ended the season on an 8 game win streak and upset the heavily favoured Argos on the road en route to a GC win. In 2024, they started off on fire but as injuries piled up, they struggled to finish the season strong and this time got upset at home as the Argos extracted their revenge on the way to a GC win of their own.
In 2025, Montreal once again returns with mostly the same roster and should have some healthy pieces back like star receiver Tyson Philpot and DL Mustafa Johnson who was a one-man wrecking crew in the middle before he got hurt. The big change is in the QB room where Cody Fajardo has been dumped in favour of last year's breakout QB Davis Alexander. Alexander started the year 3rd on the depth chart but got his chance after Fajardo was hurt and backup Caleb Evans was struggling badly. He came into a game in the 2H and lead the team back from a 13 point deficit while looking as cool as Joe Montana in the pocket. He went on to go 4-0 as a starter before Fajardo came back and HC Jason Maas had seen enough to let Fajardo go and ensconce Alexander as 2025's starter.
The big question mark is whether Alexander is ready to lead a team. Its one thing to look good off the bench but quite another to shoulder the burden of being the team's leader. The league's history is replete with backups who have shone only to falter as a leader (Dane Evans anyone?). Complicating matters is that the team has signed McLeod Bethel-Thompson to back up Alexander. I used to like Macbeth until last year when he got a little too big for his britches in Edmonton, twice being fined by the league for whining about the schedule and then making comments after he was dumped in favour of Tre Ford that the team was letting fans make roster decisions. Will Macbeth be happy in a backup role? If Alexander struggles early will he be whining again and making headlines with ill-timed comments? Maybe this will work but I see a risk of some division in the QB room which could kill the season.
 
Ottawa
The Redblacks took a major step last year and I think they will continue that trajectory this season. New QB Dru Brown took some time to get going as a full-time starter but once he did, he started to look pretty damn good. I think he will continue to develop into a top-tier starter. He will be backed up by Matt Shiltz (CGY) who is replacing Jeremiah Masoli who ended up signing with BC.

They have a very talented receiving group in which will be led by the highest paid receiver in the league, Eugene Lewis who comes over from the Elks. Also playing a leading role will be last year's draft pick Nick Mardner out of Auburn. They also went receiver with their first draft pick, selecting Keelan White out of Montana. Add in all the other talent they have at receiver and they have an embarrassment of riches at that position. The OL is solid if unspectacular and the team will need to find a bellcow running back but thats not a major concern in a passing-first league.

The bigger concern is their defence and in particular the secondary. They lost their best DBs, Damon Webb & Brandon Dandridge, in free agency but picked up a few suitable replacements in the form of Robert Priester (TOR), Nafees Lyon (MTL) & Amari Henderson (SSK). Time will tell if they can pull it all together. They will need to be able to stop people because as solid as Dru Brown and the offence looked in the latter half of 2024, they are not built to win track meets.
 
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