CFL Syndicate 2022

Hulu said:
1*/.5* Calgary +3 / ML -110 / +130

I was hoping this would hit 3. I have BC rated a point better than Calgary but playing in cowtown gives the stamps a major advantage. They don't often lose at home.
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Calgary now -1.5 favs. Unless I'm missing something big, I don't see any news that accounts for this huge line move.
 
Results after week 10...

Sides 16-13 +2.35*
Totals 7-9 -3.375*
Live/2H 6-9 -4.895*
Parlays 0-2 -1.50*
Props 1-0 +0.25*

Overall 30-33 -7.17*

Worst season in years through the first half. Even @Teapot9 has lost the faith.

Let me tell you something...I own this fucking league. I have not had a losing season in years and I'm not about to start now. This ends today.
 
guaranteeed said:
It's already moving, was surprised it was that low

Still kinda surprised it's where it is

Lions and bombers a step above anyone else
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It was at -140 for a while but I missed it.

What Rourke did last week was amazing. He basically had 2 game winning drives. First the TD to take the lead and then when Calgary returned a kick for a TD, he walks back on and does it again. That pass to Whitehead at the end was sick. This team just has too many weapons with Burnham, Whitehead, Rhymes, Cottoy and Hatcher all balling. And they get Butler back this week too. Delvin Breaux too. They're the healthiest team in the league right now.

Sask gets their defensive line back this week with Marino coming off suspension, AC Leonard and Pete Robertson both practicing. But BC just has too many weapons and Fajardo won't be able to keep pace.

I'm bummed that BC doesn't visit Hamilton this year. I won't get to see Rourke live
 
Hulu said:
It was at -140 for a while but I missed it.

What Rourke did last week was amazing. He basically had 2 game winning drives. First the TD to take the lead and then when Calgary returned a kick for a TD, he walks back on and does it again. That pass to Whitehead at the end was sick. This team just has too many weapons with Burnham, Whitehead, Rhymes, Cottoy and Hatcher all balling. And they get Butler back this week too. Delvin Breaux too. They're the healthiest team in the league right now.

Sask gets their defensive line back this week with Marino coming off suspension, AC Leonard and Pete Robertson both practicing. But BC just has too many weapons and Fajardo won't be able to keep pace.

I'm bummed that BC doesn't visit Hamilton this year. I won't get to see Rourke live
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The whitehead pass was thrown perfectly

The drive before the one to burnham was great too, and burnham did a hell of a job to hold it

I remember we both thought preseason that if 1 or 2 of the guys after whitehead and burnham was a legit weapon they could be very dangerous, and 3 or 4 of them are, csnt remember an offense like this in awhile

I'm going to riders next week i think, may only get 1 year to see rourke in the league at the pace hes at

Calgary is 2nd best offense in league by points scored and lions are averaging over 5 more per game than them, I probably wasnt fair on Calgary when I said bombers and lions were clear top 2, I do think Calgary can play with both, riders may be 4th best by a margin too
 
Would you have the west crossover team as a favorite to make the grey cup right now? I wouldn't go that far, but do think either would be slight favorite over any east team hosting a playoff game

Looks like 1/2 will be bombers and lions, kind of disappointed they dont play again for 2 months, that game is 3rd last of season for both, may be to see who hosts west final

They also play last week of season, which unless its winner gets bye I'm guessing we see lots of guys rested

But 3 and 4 looks settled between Calgary and sask, and I have trouble seeing 3rd place in the east matching either

The gap between whomever comes out of the east and a trip to bc and winnipeg back to back, is a large one, we may see some shenanigans if it's close late in the year
 
I am leaning both the visiting teams saturday, which would potentially mean being on all 4 away teams this week, and that usually doesnt end well for me
 
guaranteeed said:
Would you have the west crossover team as a favorite to make the grey cup right now? I wouldn't go that far, but do think either would be slight favorite over any east team hosting a playoff game

Looks like 1/2 will be bombers and lions, kind of disappointed they dont play again for 2 months, that game is 3rd last of season for both, may be to see who hosts west final

They also play last week of season, which unless its winner gets bye I'm guessing we see lots of guys rested

But 3 and 4 looks settled between Calgary and sask, and I have trouble seeing 3rd place in the east matching either

The gap between whomever comes out of the east and a trip to bc and winnipeg back to back, is a large one, we may see some shenanigans if it's close late in the year
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Not sure I'd have them favoured to make the cup. I don't think its been done before, has it? Is Sask better than Toronto, Hamilton or Montreal at home? It would have to be close to pk in each of those matchups.

365 had Hamilton +900 to reach the cup. I was tempted because I think 1 and 2 are Toronto and Hamilton in either order and third will be a crossover team.
 
Hulu said:
Not sure I'd have them favoured to make the cup. I don't think its been done before, has it? Is Sask better than Toronto, Hamilton or Montreal at home? It would have to be close to pk in each of those matchups.

365 had Hamilton +900 to reach the cup. I was tempted because I think 1 and 2 are Toronto and Hamilton in either order and third will be a crossover team.
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I'd love those odds on the ticats, of any of the east teams I think they have highest ceiling if healthy

I agree on not being favored to make it, just because its 2 games, but do think slight favorites every game
 
guaranteeed said:
I am leaning both the visiting teams saturday, which would potentially mean being on all 4 away teams this week, and that usually doesnt end well for me
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Agree 100%

Hamilton at +3 looks to have some value. But I'd really like to know who is starting at qb and if they are getting any guys back because they were awfully banged up last week. They gutted out a win but I'm not sure if that roster can pull another rabbit out of the hat on the road this week. They are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this year.

Calgary should win against Toronto this week. The Argos lost several players in game LW and without Harris, Rogers and that patchwork OL, I think they are in trouble vs a Calgary team who is ready to play a winnable game after facing the league's top 2 teams for 3 of the past 4 weeks. I love Calgary ML
 
No ones made grey cup from crossover

Looks like 10 times it's happened, it's been west every time

4 won semi and lost final, although all 4 in last 6 times

6 lost semi
 
guaranteeed said:
I'd love those odds on the ticats, of any of the east teams I think they have highest ceiling if healthy

I agree on not being favored to make it, just because its 2 games, but do think slight favorites every game
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Just looked and its +700 now. That implies a 12.5% chance and I'd estimate that vs 2 teams that they are roughly equal to their odds would be more like 20% if they finish second and 50% if they finish first. And after this weekend, they could well be tied with Toronto for first although Toronto holds the tie breaker right now by 7 points.
 
Hulu said:
Just looked and its +700 now. That implies a 12.5% chance and I'd estimate that vs 2 teams that they are roughly equal to their odds would be more like 20% if they finish second and 50% if they finish first. And after this weekend, they could well be tied with Toronto for first although Toronto holds the tie breaker right now by 7 points.
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Ya, I'd think right now, say it's any combo of toronto, hamilton, Montreal, saskatchewan in east playoffs

Cant see a favorite line over 3 maybe 3.5 in any game, assuming no big players are missing or a drastic change happening in how well they play
 
Adding a future...

0.25* Hamilton to reach Grey Cup +700

Reasoning in post 722 and I agree with 'teed that with 4 very similar teams vying for the eastern slot, Hamilton probably has the most upside.

For context, here are the other teams numbers...
Toronto +265
Montreal +700
Saskatchewan +450 - lower because they have 2 potential paths through the east and west
 
survive&advance said:
Any lean on Hamilton/Montreal?
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Tough game to call. On paper, Hamilton is clearly the better team so getting +3 seems like good value. But they are also really banged up right now. They have 2 DBs who haven't paracticed this week in Cariel Brooks and Jumal Rolle which could be a big deal if both are out. We still don't know who is starting at qb for the cats either. Matt SHilz was not bad last week and he may find some extra motivation playing in Montreal after they dumped him but I would really prefer a healthy Dane Evans at qb. According to today's injury report, Evans practiced but was limited so we likely won't know who the starter is until tomorrow.

One other thing that bothers me with Hamilton is they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season.

Montreal played hard at Winnipeg last week but that might indicate they will let down a little this week. They are typically better at home than on the road though.

Gun to my head I would take Hamilton +3.

Enjoy the game! Percival Molson is a cool and historic stadium tucked into the side of Mount Royal and on the Mcgill university campus. Its where the rules of modern gridiron football were originally written in 1874 or so.
 
Hulu said:
Tough game to call. On paper, Hamilton is clearly the better team so getting +3 seems like good value. But they are also really banged up right now. They have 2 DBs who haven't paracticed this week in Cariel Brooks and Jumal Rolle which could be a big deal if both are out. We still don't know who is starting at qb for the cats either. Matt SHilz was not bad last week and he may find some extra motivation playing in Montreal after they dumped him but I would really prefer a healthy Dane Evans at qb. According to today's injury report, Evans practiced but was limited so we likely won't know who the starter is until tomorrow.

One other thing that bothers me with Hamilton is they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season.

Montreal played hard at Winnipeg last week but that might indicate they will let down a little this week. They are typically better at home than on the road though.

Gun to my head I would take Hamilton +3.

Enjoy the game! Percival Molson is a cool and historic stadium tucked into the side of Mount Royal and on the Mcgill university campus. Its where the rules of modern gridiron football were originally written in 1874 or so.
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Appreciate the write up, good sir! Looking forward to it :cheers3:
 
Orlondo Steinauer, in his presser today, said Dane Evans will dress but refused to name a starter. Its gamesmanship. We won't know who's starting until the rosters come out tomorrow likely. Even then he could have Evans listed as the starter but listed at GTD and then we truly wouldn't know until game time.
 
Results after week 10...

Sides 19-13 +5.35*
Totals 7-9 -3.375*
Live/2H 8-9 -2.93*
Parlays 0-2 -1.50*
Props 1-0 +0.25*

Overall 35-33 -1.705*

5-0 and within striking distance of profitability. Finally some bounces going my way.
 
Probably gone for the season. Michael O'Conner will be getting the start this week. How much of a downgrade is that? 6 points?

Hard to see BC as anything beyond a .500 team now.
 
Hulu said:
Probably gone for the season. Michael O'Conner will be getting the start this week. How much of a downgrade is that? 6 points?

Hard to see BC as anything beyond a .500 team now.
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Hes done imo, shouldn't even have any weight on it for six weeks minimum, possibly 4 weeks longer, then rehab is weeks more, so even if they rush him back we are in late october

If the surgery is perfect and he has super human recovery, maybe 1st week or november

Maybe they fall enough to be the crossover?
 
I think hes worth 7 easy, it's hard to even think of a comparison, he has averaged over 400 yards last few weeks

Maybe call Reilly? See if he wants a shot with this receiver group?
 
guaranteeed said:
I think hes worth 7 easy, it's hard to even think of a comparison, he has averaged over 400 yards last few weeks

Maybe call Reilly? See if he wants a shot with this receiver group?
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After thinking about it more I downgraded BC 7.5 pts. Thats more than Ive ever downgraded a team for losing their QB but like you said, theres no comparison here. And I don't think O'Conner is a starting qb.

Maybe Reilly...maybe Kevin Glenn? hah

I'm curious to see if they put up a line on this game early. Theres also a question as to who might be starting for sask. We really don't know if Fajardo was pulled or hurt. If he was just pulled and will be starting this Friday I would tke Sask at any +line they want to hang.
 
What a horrible spot Calgary is in this week. Banged up and on their 2nd straight roadie, on 5 days rest against a mostly healthy Winnipeg team at home off a bye.

Maybe Bo comes out on fire after being benched but he just doesn't have the receivers to bail him out like he once did. And Titus Wall left last game and didn't come back which would be another blow.

Calgary hung with Winnipeg twice before but this might be too much to overcome. Anything under -7 might be playable.
 
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