CFB week 9

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Posted on CTG

39-31, +17,025
__________________________________________________

Getting lots of questions so I'll get this thread up now.

2-0 already this week with wins on Temple game WIN and Temple 2H. WIN 4 units each so starting the week with an 8 unit cushion.

6-0 last saturday, so on a nice 8-0 run and up a bunch of units in that stretch.

Seeing things pretty clearly right now in all sports, so we'll see if we can keep it rolling. I suspect a correction is coming, but lets try to extend it.

This card is a work in progress .. I'll add my thoughts as I have time over the next few days.

Locked in:

Rutgers +10, -120; 4 units WIN
Minny -1, -110, 4 units.. WIN
PSU -2, -110; 2 units WIN
PSU -1, -120, 4units.... (now on for 6 units) WIN
W Vir 2h -3.5 -115; 2 units WIN
Boise 1H TT over 13 ; 3 units WIN
Boise st -6.5, -120; 4 units WIN
Boise/SJST over 20 2H -105; 4 units PUSH
Wisky +3, -115; 2 units WIN
Central Michigan -3, -120; 3 units LOSS
ML parlay NW, No Ill, 2 units (1000-836) LOSS
UNLV +23, -110; 2 units WIN
Virginia +14.5, -120; 2 units WIN
Okie St +11.5, -110; 2 units WIN
Colorado +24, -110; 2 units LOSS

Leans/ potential plays: (mostly dogs)

Minny (played)
Wisky (played)
UNLV (played)
Virg (played)
Okie St. (played)
Wyoming (off)
Colorado (played)
PSU (played)
C. Mich (played)

GL this week:cheers:
 
Last edited:
I'll write Rutgers up in detail but wanted to lock it in as it smells like a potential Dr Bob play.. Could be wrong but didn't want to take the chance.. Really wanted the 10 and paid a bit of extra vig to get it.
 
Glad to see you on PSU...I pounded that one....expecting the Buckeyes to be blown out

Keep it up my man.
 
Streakin said:
Glad to see you on PSU...I pounded that one....expecting the Buckeyes to be blown out

Keep it up my man.
Click to expand...

They "peaked ahead" last week and got surprised by Michigan in 1H.. Then absolutely dominated in the 2H.. They won't be peaking this week and will have complete focus from minute one..

I have them rated very high..

Not sure units yet but it is a play most very likely:cheers:
 
Had Pitt more like a TD after further review grabbed some +10 -120 . The extra possession seems like good value . Tough trusting Pitt to lay DD with a so-so passing game....:cheers:
 
Is Dr Bob some big time tout? Saw his name come up before, great call on Temple last night pretty entertaining BOL this weekend
 
chancedog said:
Is Dr Bob some big time tout? Saw his name come up before, great call on Temple last night pretty entertaining BOL this weekend
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Ya, probably the biggest tout ever.. Some follow, some don't .. I don't, but when he releases his plays on Thursday afternoon he moves lines a couple points.. Because of that, most of us pay attention.. The Dr Bob "in-game" every Thursday is usually pretty entertaining.. Rex sniffs them out almost immediately..
 
SportsNut said:
Had Pitt more like a TD after further review grabbed some +10 -120 . The extra possession seems like good value . Tough trusting Pitt to lay DD with a so-so passing game....:cheers:
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Made Pitt below a TD.. I'll get some thoughts put together.. Put a lot of time in on this one.. Assume you saw some of Rutgers defensive performance LW v. Uconn... I thought they might be mailing it in but they flew around like a 7-0 team playing for a BCS berth LW, especially in the second half.. Now the win gives them even more purpose.. Would not be surprised by a SU win and 2 possesions ought to come in handy.. Lots of outs in this one for Rutgers backers.. Glad to see you are seeing it the same way.. That usually means success near as I can tell recently..:cheers:
 
Hey T, got your PM and responded, hope it helped a little. Looks like we'll be on the same side in 2 (Minny and Okie St) and butting heads in the Wyoming game. Realize these 2 aren't on your radar so if you don't have time that's cool, if so, thoughts on CMI/Toledo and Georgia/LSU games would eb appreciated. Peace
 
Mags said:
Hey T, got your PM and responded, hope it helped a little. Looks like we'll be on the same side in 2 (Minny and Okie St) and butting heads in the Wyoming game. Realize these 2 aren't on your radar so if you don't have time that's cool, if so, thoughts on CMI/Toledo and Georgia/LSU games would eb appreciated. Peace
Click to expand...

None of my leans are plays yet and probably only a couple make the cut so we may or may not but butting.... You don't have letdown concerns with TCU? I can see them very flat and lots of outs for Wyoming... 32? Wow that is alot to ask in this spot.. I could easiely see a nice, lazy and unemotional 35 -13 win by TCU. Classic letdown situation which is why it made my list.. no play yet as I am just getting to the matchups etc..

On a neutral field Ga is 5-6 points better IMO.. LSU at home is worth more than the typical HFA however.. So ya I would lean Ga and would get the 3 if I could but not close to a play for me.

And I think you are onto something with C. Mich but I'll have to look closer at that one.. Toledo has troubles scoring but C. Mich has trouble stopping.. Think an average defense does well vs bad offense but would have to look much closer at the matchups.. Put it on my list.. I'll let you know if I find anything worthwhile to share... GL this week.
 
tee*dub said:
Made Pitt below a TD.. I'll get some thoughts put together.. Put a lot of time in on this one.. Assume you saw some of Rutgers defensive performance LW v. Uconn... I thought they might be mailing it in but they flew around like a 7-0 team playing for a BCS berth LW, especially in the second half.. Now the win gives them even more purpose.. Would not be surprised by a SU win and 2 possesions ought to come in handy.. Lots of outs in this one for Rutgers backers.. Glad to see you are seeing it the same way.. That usually means success near as I can tell recently..:cheers:
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I agree TEE . I think most people will look at how they won and dismiss it because it was ugly . That was the point I amde about RU coming into thatgame if you recall they were buying they still had a chance to do something with there season which made that UConn game there SB and a win keeps home alive . Which I assume effort is something very important in your decision here .

On the surface I think Pitt -6/-7 seems right especially seeing how cheap Pitt was at Navy last week . Never like teams going from cheap to overvalued based on 1 game .

RU could win this if they made some plays on offense . The DEF hasnt been great but it really hasnt been bad at all by any stretch . They have been real good in 1st Halves so far . Fresno State was more about how RU pissed that game away and when Fresno got some momentum they ran with it while NC made some real tough plays that were big gainers .

Nice sandwich spot as well 3 straight road games come home to play underacheiving RU probably a tad over confident thanks to the 3 wins . Then your @ ND next game ...

Pitt already lost at home to BG , trailed after 1 vs Buff , and led by just 1 after 2nd and 3rdqs before winning the 4th Q 10-0 . They snuck by Iowa by 1 .

RU beat them 3 straight and held them to 10 and 16pts last 2 years ...could see Pitt in that 20-24 pt range making 10 pts a big task to cover ......

:cheers:Have some +10 looking to see how it moves .....
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
All I needed to see. Love it man. Minny is this weeks Iowa.
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Think they run the table up to the Iowa game at home which will have a lot riding on it.. (including my 10 unit Iowa 7 win season bet)

This is as much a play on Minny as it is a play against Purdue.. They have problems and they are playing the wrong team to have problems .

Impressive Road wins at BGU and at Illinois and a ballgame at tOSU and I don't see how the Boliers can keep up.. Could get ugly early IMO. Purdue has shown me nothing to suggest they can muster the enthusiasm and energy to compete for 4 quarters.. In fact I see quite the opposite.

Spent a lot of time in the Big Ten this year and have done pretty well seeing things play out.. The one team I missed on early was Minny---no longer --I am now a believer.. (expect Sammy to insert a Davie Jones picture in upcoming screen):D

^^ young guys won't get that one.
 
tee*dub said:
On a neutral field Ga is 5-6 points better IMO..
Click to expand...

Why?

I give UGA the edge in QB and RB. Green is a stud but LSU has more targets, so WR is even. I give LSU the edge on both lines OL + DL. UGA has a great DL, but when looking at the matchup, LSU's OL should hold up better to UGA's DL than UGA's OL (2frosh, 2soph, and a junior) can hold up against LSU's DL. Francois is 50/50 to play last I heard. Beckwith should be back to 100% this week, so I give LSU the LB edge. DB's for both teams are weak points, and special teams are even too.

I just don't see much of a difference in these two teams. Bama went into Athens and manhandled the Bulldogs, but the 41-30 final score shows that Bama has trouble hanging onto leads. The 30pt spanking LSU received was in one of the toughest venue in college sports. It exposed LSU's inexperience, which many turned a blind eye to this year, but it is difficult to fill in for Dorsey, Steltz, and Flynn. I just don't seem much of a difference when breaking down these two teams. The common opponent they had was South Carolina, both games in Columbia, both were victorious over Head Ball Coach by a TD, but UGA has the revenge angle working for them where it was working against LSU.

Anyway, those are my thoughts, just found it interesting you had UGA more than a FG better than LSU on a neutral field.
 
Mags said:
go figure :36_11_6:!

What up Troy?
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Don't make me go back through your plays and see how many you matched up with Tee on, Mags. :36_11_6:


As you can see by my posted picture of a fish tail in Tee's MLB thread, there is never a doubt when I am tailing. However, Minny is one that jumped out to me this week. I think opening number of +1 was a farce and we see that it has been corrected to -1, which is still low. Think 3/4 would be a fair line but I'll be all over -1. :shake:
 
You don't have letdown concerns with TCU? I can see them very flat and lots of outs for Wyoming... 32? Wow that is alot to ask in this spot.. I could easiely see a nice, lazy and unemotional 35 -13 win by TCU. Classic letdown situation which is why it made my list.. no play yet as I am just getting to the matchups etc..

T - I just don't see it. I know what you're reasoning is but here's what I see. Wyoming has scored 16+ (and no more than 20) a total of 3 times this year, other than that they have scored 7 or less with 2 shut outs. They score 9 ppg and give up an average of 30. They are 0-2 on the road. We will have the #1 defense going against the #116 offense? I do not see TCU looking ahead to UNLV :36_11_6:.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Why?

I give UGA the edge in QB and RB. Green is a stud but LSU has more targets, so WR is even. I give LSU the edge on both lines OL + DL. UGA has a great DL, but when looking at the matchup, LSU's OL should hold up better to UGA's DL than UGA's OL (2frosh, 2soph, and a junior) can hold up against LSU's DL. Francois is 50/50 to play last I heard. Beckwith should be back to 100% this week, so I give LSU the LB edge. DB's for both teams are weak points, and special teams are even too.

I just don't see much of a difference in these two teams. Bama went into Athens and manhandled the Bulldogs, but the 41-30 final score shows that Bama has trouble hanging onto leads. The 30pt spanking LSU received was in one of the toughest venue in college sports. It exposed LSU's inexperience, which many turned a blind eye to this year, but it is difficult to fill in for Dorsey, Steltz, and Flynn. I just don't seem much of a difference when breaking down these two teams. The common opponent they had was South Carolina, both games in Columbia, both were victorious over Head Ball Coach by a TD, but UGA has the revenge angle working for them where it was working against LSU.

Anyway, those are my thoughts, just found it interesting you had UGA more than a FG better than LSU on a neutral field.
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Having a QB and RB advantage is huge on the road.. I have it Probably more like 5 on neutral but as I stated above I give LSU big HF edge, call it 4 so ya I think Ga. should be a small fav. maybe 1 or 2 IMO.. But I don't bet games like this typically.. esp when I cap it just a point or two on the other side of pk... Anyone can win this game and you have to pick the winner to be right.. Sounds like gambling to me is all I am saying... To me, these are the toughest games to win a decent percent at.. So I just emiminate them or look to get involved at HT... JUst my reasoning which may or may not make sense..

Put it this way... Another game I like is Minny Purdue which is also right around pick give or take a bit... So both these games I figure I have to find the winner to profit... On one hand I have two elite SEC teams that are both performing very well and have a ton to play for.. Coin flip at best- and I'd be real fortunate to get 50% of those right... On the other hand I have a Minny team that is much better , IMO , with much more to play for and a Purdue team that is scuffling to even finish the season... If you could only make two bets this week, which one would it be?

You may or may not agree with Minny as a good play, that is not the point, really, the point is a selective approach eliminates games like LSU/Ga.... Really good cases can be made for both teams... I'd like to hear someones good case for Purdue..:cheers:

Now, Minny is going to be public and probably looks like a sucker bet but I really don't pay attn to that stuff unless I am stalking a line move, but that is a totally different discussion.

My mentor once said-- I began to profit when I stopped gambling.. Took me a long time before I figured out what he meant..:shake:

Now my Rutgers play is different because I think it is pretty likely Pitt wins the game.. I use a different principal (that has been highly succesful the last few weeks) on the mid to big dog plays..
 
Mags said:
You don't have letdown concerns with TCU? I can see them very flat and lots of outs for Wyoming... 32? Wow that is alot to ask in this spot.. I could easiely see a nice, lazy and unemotional 35 -13 win by TCU. Classic letdown situation which is why it made my list.. no play yet as I am just getting to the matchups etc..

T - I just don't see it. I know what you're reasoning is but here's what I see. Wyoming has scored 16+ (and no more than 20) a total of 3 times this year, other than that they have scored 7 or less with 2 shut outs. They score 9 ppg and give up an average of 30. They are 0-2 on the road. We will have the #1 defense going against the #116 offense? I do not see TCU looking ahead to UNLV :36_11_6:.
Click to expand...

No doubt TCU is 40 points better.. Just not sure they will be motivated to play that way this week.. It would be a pure situational play if I play it...
 
tee*dub said:
add:

PSU -2, -110; 2 units

comments up in the thread
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Come on Tee - MAX UNITS!!

just messing man...glad you are on it at all. I love this play. OHST home doggy is the sexy play but I think it gets ugly.

Also with you on Minny; got it at +1 couple of days ago.

Good luck this weekend (not that you need it)
:smiley_acbe:
 
Love all 3 and agree Minney is very much a play on merit but also it looks like it can't be that easy. Minney finishing out with a 2 or 3 loss season going to the outback or cap one bowl? can you envision that because I don't think they are their yet although vastly improved. Perfect spot for Purdue at home needing a win badly. I think Minney has been getting TO's in just about every game. BG and NIU played Minney pretty evenly and both put up big pass yards, that is a concern.
 
You are not betting on RUTGERS, you are betting vs PITTS and saying okay go ahead just try and cover I dont think you can--

this is not a gamble as you have thought it to be an expected outcome a 4 point PITTS win?

am i right>
 
tee*dub said:
add:

W Vir 2h -3.5 -115; 2 units
Click to expand...

value with the home team. Lots of breaks went Aub way.. Too one dim. and adjustments will be made.. I thought it was a fg game to begin with and think that is what it settles into..
 
tee*dub said:
value with the home team. Lots of breaks went Aub way.. Too one dim. and adjustments will be made.. I thought it was a fg game to begin with and think that is what it settles into..
Click to expand...
Already there, took O21 as well.

GL
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
You are not betting on RUTGERS, you are betting vs PITTS and saying okay go ahead just try and cover I dont think you can--

this is not a gamble as you have thought it to be an expected outcome a 4 point PITTS win?

am i right>
Click to expand...

Ya but actually I give Rutgers a fighters chance to win SU. Very impressed with their dee in 2H LW against very good rushing offense..we'll see
 
Looking at Auburn the reason they cant score in the 2nd half is teams tighten up vs the run and their QB cannot throw a designed pass of a 3 step or 5 step drop, he has to scramble and wait for the guy to be wide open-

His timing is off, meaning he does not throw before the receiver gets into his break, he waits until the receiver gets open, hence why they complete no passes over 10 yards where you have to throw the ball early--

This Offense stinks and should not score in the SEC much
 
Nice job. Man, if we (Ole Miss) somehow lose at Arkansas, the home game against Auburn is that much more of a hammertime game. I think we win both though. :shake:
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Looking at Auburn the reason they cant score in the 2nd half is teams tighten up vs the run and their QB cannot throw a designed pass of a 3 step or 5 step drop, he has to scramble and wait for the guy to be wide open-

His timing is off, meaning he does not throw before the receiver gets into his break, he waits until the receiver gets open, hence why they complete no passes over 10 yards where you have to throw the ball early--

This Offense stinks and should not score in the SEC much
Click to expand...

Ya WV turned the ball over 3 times and still ran away with it.. Pretty easy HT play... Auburn going to Miss next
 
RambleOn said:
Nice job. Man, if we (Ole Miss) somehow lose at Arkansas, the home game against Auburn is that much more of a hammertime game. I think we win both though. :shake:
Click to expand...

Yep, I'll be paying very close attention to the situation in that game..
 
Good start to the week. 3-0 so far... I'll try to get the rest of my plays up friday morning .. Maybe 2 - 3 more..
 
9 in a row in CFB. Been in that range before but can't remember the last time I've hit 10 in a row in CFB, so buyer beware..

Boise v. SJST

I have said in other threads that I lean Boise for sure.. Thing is I rarely play this much chalk and in fact I am not sure I have played more than one or two this year.. My sweet spot is low chalks and dogs and mid to large dogs... Just where I do best.

Having said that I do like Boise a bit and here is why:

People say both have played shitty schedules and I would counter that by saying SJST schedule is far inferior IMO.. I don't care what the rankings say I have Boise with two quality wins over quality-ish opponents (Ore on the road and BGU) Keep in mind BGU beat what we have learned to be a very good Pitt squad two weeks before.. And when you look at the Oregon game, I admit Oregon had major QB issues in the game but the fact Boise had them down 37-13 going into the 4th q is noteworthy to me.

Boise's defense is really good and the offense has been opportunistic and for whatever reason they really jump on people in the 2nd Q. But first the defense.. In 5 of their 6 games the opponents have scored less 7 points or less.. That is alarmingly good. And even oregon did most of their scoring in the 4th q fueled by 4 turnovers.. This defense is good and the offense scores 32+ per contest... Hard to make a case for SJst to be honest but the 7.5 points is tough.

Back to the offense and the magical 2nd Q..

vs.

So miss--- 0 points in Q1; 24 points in Q2
Ore------- 0 points in Q1; 24 points in Q2
Id St------7 points in Q1; 21 points in Q2

Vs BG in a game they only scored 20 points total they scored 14 of them in Q2. more of the same v. LT..

So Boise really jumps people in the 1H, particularly the later part of the 1H and thens turns it over to their defense... Got it pegged that way again tonight. Not gonna mess with the 7.5 and a backdoor opp for SJst.

Rolling with:

Boise 1H TT over 13 ; 3 units
 
add:

Boise st -6.5, -120; 4 units

Can get 6.5 now and rolling with it.. See HG and I see this exactly the same and that has worked pretty good in the past.. Play on.
 
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