The Wannabe Wagerer: Missouri bounces back
from
Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Doug Gillett
Hey Jenny Slater's Doug Gillett offers betting advice without bias, malice, or credibility. Or, you know, money.I've probably been less affected by the financial crisis than most (hooray for being too poor to own any stock!), but what the stock-market collapse couldn't accomplish,
last week's picks did. Thanks to Vandy's upset loss to Mississippi State, I now have a $3,000 Dwight Eisenhower autograph I have no idea how I'm going to pay for, and that was just the beginning. I've got some ground to make up, so it's go big or go home this week -- and as you can see, I'll be putting some big-ticket items on the line.
The Pick: Missouri (+6.5) at Texas
I'm Confident Enough to Bet: Missouri Tigers
football signed by 45 members of the 2008 team
Approximate Value: $230 on eBay
Oklahoma State boss Mike Gundy may be
a bit of a hothead, and I don't even know if he's Catholic, but this Papist is nominating him for sainthood: One of the requirements for canonization is the execution of an honest-to-goodness miracle, and I think holding this year's Missouri offense below 30 points qualifies. (Gundy's Cowboys actually made the Tigers punt
four times, almost as many as Mizzou's first six opponents had combined).
While they were doing that, of course, Texas was pulling the headlining upset of the day by rudely elbowing Oklahoma off its No. 1 perch. But you know what that means, don't you? An angry, revenge-minded attitude for the Tigers, coupled with a classic letdown opportunity for the Longhorns. For all the talk about how Will Muschamp's UT defense made some big plays against the Sooners, the 'Horns are still 110th nationally against the pass and allowed a 387-yard, 5-TD day to OU's Sam Bradford -- not an inspiring statistic with Chase Daniel coming to town looking to atone for a three-interception day against Oklahoma State. Missouri's defense isn't much to get excited about, either, but all that tells me is that this shapes up to be another Big 12 shootout, where the last team to score wins, and
no one's going to be covering a touchdown spread. God willing, when Daniel and his team pick apart the Longhorns, that signed Mizzou football I'm wagering is gonna get that much more valuable -- not as much as Ike's prized scrawl, of course, but Daniel's just getting started here.
The Pick: North Carolina State (+11) vs. Florida State
I’m Confident Enough to Bet: FSU
logo-embroidered leather sofa
Approximate Value: $1,500 on eBay
The ACC has devolved into the college football equivalent of a David Lynch film: Surprises lurk around every corner, and strange things happen for no reason whatsoever. Maryland knocks off Clemson, then goes to Charlottesville and gets annihilated by a Cavalier squad that had just benn blown off the field by Duke? The only two teams still undefeated in ACC play, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, were unable to get it done outside the conference against Navy and East Carolina. Actually, like most of Lynch’s better films, there
is an underlying meaning here, and it is that nobody in the ACC is very good -- FSU and N.C. State included.
The Wolfpack have been thorns in the Seminoles’ side for a while now: FSU is 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 outings against N.C. State, and haven’t covered outright since 2000 (not coincidentally the year Mark Richt left and the Seminole dynasty began crumbling in earnest). And while Tom O’Brien’s team still isn’t good at much of anything of importance, the Pack did come within a touchdown of Boston College last week. FSU just isn’t good enough to be covering double-digit spreads on the road against anybody. Bet on
N.C. State to cover, and rest easy doing so -- on this irresistibly classy leather couch, of course, suitable for kicking back and watching a Lynch flick or just taking in a Warrick Dunn-era FSU game on ESPN Classic and trying to remember the good times.
The Pick: Connecticut (-1) at Rutgers
I’m Confident Enough to Bet: Two
first-class Northwest Airlines tickets from New York-LaGuardia to Miami for the 2008 national championship game
Approximate Value: $1,930 on Travelocity.com
Millions of Americans got an object lesson in “buy low, sell high” last week as Wall Street's implosion gobbled through 401(k)s like Stephen King’s Langoliers, but plenty of college football fans get the same lesson on a regular basis. For example, the folks who bought Rutgers stock after their 26-12 run from 2005 to 2007 are suddenly scratching their heads as the Scarlet Knights have yet to beat a D-IA opponent. My guess is it has something to do with the absence of Ray Rice and quarterback Mike Teel having thrown almost as many
right hooks against his receivers as TD passes, but that's just me.
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UConn, on the other hand, rates as a solid “hold” -- none of the five opponents they've defeated ranks as a juggernaut, certainly, but they've got the nation's leading running back (Donald Brown, going up here against D-IA's 79th-ranked run defense) and stand as good a chance as anyone of taking the title in this year's ragged-looking Big East. Once
Connecticut covers the modest one-point spread and sends the Knights to 1-6, Rutgers coach Greg Schiano might be wishing he'd
taken that Miami job a couple seasons ago after all. It'll be too late for him to use those plane tickets, of course, but it won't be for me.
The Pick: Southern Cal (-42.5) at Washington State
I’m Confident Enough to Bet: Cybertech SPINE
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Approximate Value: $80 at DME-Direct
Look, we can argue theology all day, bicker endlessly over whether your personal conception of God really hates Yag people or stem-cell researchers or Muslims or whoever, but I think there's one thing we can all agree on: God
really hates the Washington State Cougars. Their top two quarterbacks got knocked out of a meaningless gimme game against Portland State with back injuries; last week, two more quarterbacks got hurt in the course of a 66-13 annihilation by Oregon State. Now they're down to a freshman Paul Wulff had hoped to redshirt this year and a scout QB literally
selected in an open casting call on the Palouse.
They may get one of the original starters, Kevin Lopina, back for this weekend's game, but ... against USC, does it really matter? If WSU can't keep its QBs out of traction against lowly Big Sky Conference opponents, what's going to happen when Rey Maualuga unhinges his jaw and starts swallowing them whole? Yes, six touchdowns is an astronomical cushion for any favorite, particularly a road team, but three of the Cougars' first four Pac-10 opponents have covered that, two of them in Pullman; the only thing that can help the Cougs stay within 50 of USC is the mercy of noted humanitarian Pete Carroll, who's got poll voters to impress with the first round of BCS standings due out this Sunday. My best guess is that the
Trojans cover the gargantuan spread and the Cougars are left in need of advanced medical devices, preferably woven from triple woven nylon cord for longer life and unparalleled durability with everyday usage.
