<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="899"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td height="42">Phil's Top 25 Record as of 9/18: 43-10 81% (incl Upset Specials)
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</td><td rowspan="5" height="26">Wk of September 18th
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</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="48">#4
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Florida
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</td><td colspan="4" rowspan="7" height="179">The Bulldogs survived their game last week as South Carolina had three chances to tie it in the 4Q but came up short including a fumble into the end zone for a touchback. That was a key SEC battle for Georgia and now they travel west of the Mississippi during the regular season for the first time since 1967. Arizona St got caught looking ahead to this last week as the Georgia game was their focal point of practices in August and September. That was a “C” game for ASU last week and this week they play with much more intensity than any of their first 3 games and could pull a surprise.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Georgia 24 ARIZONA ST 21
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</td><td colspan="3" height="95">The Gators dominated Tennessee last year at home winning 59-20 and that was with a young defense vs a senior QB. This year UF has a more veteran D taking on a young QB so they should be able to win on the road even in a very hostile environment.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Florida 34 TENNESSEE 20
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#6 LSU
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</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="6" height="179">Usually when a team has a 315-116 yardage edge (almost 3 to 1 yards) they win 23-0 or somewhere in that range. If Auburn had won by that much over Miss St last week, they would be favored here but instead they are a dog. LSU has 2 inexperienced QBs (Hatch & Lee) with Hatch starting the 1st two games vs a FCS defense and North Texas’ defense (one of the weakest in FBS). Now Hatch will be making his first road start in front of 90,000 hostile fans (much different than large home crowds) and will face one of the best D’s in the country! LSU has scored 3, 9 and 7 points in their last 3 trips here and each of those was with a more experienced QB.
PHIL’S FORECAST: AUBURN 17 Lsu 13
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</td><td colspan="5" height="81">The Tigers look unstoppable and Buffalo has to be worn out after needing a “Hail Mary” TD pass to beat Temple. This is a meaningless game for The Bulls as they are thinking MAC Title and have Central Michigan on deck.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSOURI 59 Buffalo 17
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Rice
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</td><td colspan="5" rowspan="2" height="81">Rice lost their top two LB tacklers to injury two weeks ago and that will hurt them. Texas has a lot of pent up energy after last week’s game was postponed and will not take it easy on their former SWC rival winning the last 3 by an avg of 54-10.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS 52 Rice 17
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</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="3" height="137">A pair of undefeated SEC teams battle here and the home team was in a January 1 bowl last year while the visitor played in the Independence bowl. Sounds like a call for the home team until you realize the Hogs are in a rebuilding year and barely got past a FCS team and a Sun Belt team needing 4th down conversions to keep alive drives for late comeback wins. Alabama dominated Clemson and will control the line of scrimmage and roll to a comfortable win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Alabama 30 ARKANSAS 13
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USF
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</td><td colspan="5" rowspan="3" height="95">UMass is #3 in the FCS in total offense and their only loss this year is to our projected #1 FCS team in James Madison. My computer calls for Texas Tech to dominate and they are tough in Lubbock. Click here to get a half page writeup on the UMass team.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS TECH 54 Massachusetts 24
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</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="6" height="182">If both teams were playing their “A” game I would call for USF to win this by 49+ points. That is not the case here. FIU is excited to be playing its first game in their brand-new home stadium and is off a bye with a non-conference game on deck. This will be their “A+” game. USF is off their HUGE national TV win over a higher ranked Kansas squad on TV on Friday and next week travels to face an ACC school. The USF players will note that the Panthers have lost their first two by a combined 82-10 and will find it tough to be “up’ for this. These two met in 2006 and USF barely escaped with a 1 point win. USF has too big of a talent edge for me to call for an outright upset by FIU, but it could be closer than you might expect.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Usf 34 FLORIDA INT’L 10
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</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="6" height="193">Do you know that Ohio St actually had a 177-172 yard edge at the half vs USC last week and a 2 to 1 TOP edge? They settled for a FG on a 1st and goal and on another drive deep had TWO TD passes wiped out by penalties and missed a FG . That was without Beanie Wells. They also gave up an IR TD and once they entered the half down 21-3, it was over. My computer knows that Troy rolled up a school record for total offense vs undermanned Alcorn St last week but still calls for OSU to have a 492-188 yard edge and that means a comfortable win. If the Buckeyes win out and go to the Rose Bowl, they won’t have to worry about a rematch with USC because The Trojans will be in the BCS Title game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 34 Troy 13
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BYU
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</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="5" height="123">I am not overreacting to last week’s blowout of UCLA by the Cougars as this was pretty much my projection heading into last week. I think the Cowboys have played three disappointing and yet somehow they are 2-1 and that just means that BYU will not take them lightly. Check out my Friday Weekly Notes for “Coaches on the Hotseat” which might apply to this game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BYU 45 Wyoming 10
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East Carolina
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</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="5" height="193">How often does a team play its conference opener and give a “C” game effort? Maybe once every few years but that was the case for East Carolina last week which had just knocked off TWO ranked teams and unexpectedly vaulted into the rankings themselves. They survived the game vs Tulane and ironically Tulane’s first opponent Alabama was also playing a “C” game after their upset of Clemson. Last week NC St got an interception return for a TD on the game’s FIRST play, but still lost to Clemson by 18. EC always gets up for in-state rivals that play in the bigger conference (ACC) and I am a little surprised that my computer thinks NC St will gain 324 yards, as I would guess under 250.
PHIL’S FORECAST: East Carolina 27 NC STATE 13
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="16" height="2">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8" height="54">
</td><td colspan="7" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Temple
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</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
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</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">
Penn St
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</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="54">
</td><td height="54">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="16" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8" height="124">
</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="3" height="151">I feel for coach Golden at Temple. An OT loss to Connecticut and then a Hail Mary loss to Buffalo. Temple could be 3-0 right now but they are 1-2 and this one is unwinnable plus they have a MAC game on deck. Penn St has looked great so far and that win over Oregon St looks a little better after the Beavers thrashed Hawaii. I picked the Lions for 2nd in the Big Ten and I look for another impressive win this week. If they get their suspended players back they could keep moving up the polls.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 44 Temple 13
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="17" height="18">
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="6" rowspan="3" height="48">
</td><td colspan="6" rowspan="3" height="48">
</td><td colspan="5" height="9">
</td><td height="9">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="13" height="15">
</td><td height="15">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7" height="24">
</td><td colspan="4" rowspan="3" height="51">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="51">
</td><td height="24">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="19" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" rowspan="3" height="54">
</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Boise St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Oregon
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</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="6" height="23">
</td><td height="23">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="12" height="5">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="26">
</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">
#18 Wake F
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</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">#24 Florida St
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</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="54">
</td><td height="26">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="16" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" rowspan="5" height="137">
</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="5" height="137">Oregon survived last week at Purdue and did lose their QB but have been replacing players with great success in each of their first 3 games. Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest venues out there and Boise has a rFr QB making his first road start. Last year I called for Washington (Pac-10) to end Boise St’s win streak and they did. Boise is 2-11 all-time vs the Pac 10 and won’t be playing their best ball until the end of the year.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 34 Boise St 13
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="12" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="95">
</td><td colspan="7" height="95">Florida St still has suspension problems and have not played a FBS school yet. Wake has their best team yet under Grobe. The winner becomes the favorite to win the ACC Atlantic as both teams get Clemson at home. Wake has won two in a row in the series including a 30-0 shutout the last time here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 23 Wake Forest 20
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="12" height="10">
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="4">
</td><td colspan="4" rowspan="3" height="51">
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</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="17" height="15">
</td><td height="15">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" rowspan="3" height="51">
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</td><td height="32">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="15" height="3">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" height="16">
</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Utah
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">
Air Force
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</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="3" rowspan="3" height="54">
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="15" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" rowspan="3" height="54">
</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">S Houston St
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</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Kansas
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</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="4" height="34">
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="14" height="4">
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="16">
</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="5" height="154">Air Force was in a great spot last year vs Utah as the Utes were banged up. AF was in a great spot last week as servicemen are trained to get up early and overcome obstacles, so the 10 a.m. start last week was no problem and shifting the game vs Houston to a different city, playing in heavy wind and playing in front a just 2,000 fans gave them a situational edge over a team that was concerned about their home city. This week they take on a Utah team at home with no special situational edges, and I rate Utah as the best non-BCS team in the country so The Utes should get the road win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Utah 34 AIR FORCE 17
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="15" height="4">
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="67">
</td><td colspan="7" height="67">Kansas is off a loss, so this should be a blowout. Click HERE to get a half page writeup about Sam Houston St.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Kansas 49 Sam Houston St 7
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</td><td height="22">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7" rowspan="2" height="51">
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</td><td height="45">
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="11" height="6">
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</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>
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</td><td>
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="880"><colgroup><col width="165"><col width="348"><col width="18"><col width="2"><col width="345"><col width="1"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td height="54">
</td><td height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
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</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">West Virginia
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Colorado
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="4" height="54">
</td><td height="54">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="4">
</td><td rowspan="2" height="51">
</td><td rowspan="2" height="51">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="4" height="109">
</td><td rowspan="4" height="109">This will be interesting. I called for East Carolina to beat West Virginia two weeks ago and part of the reason was Pat White’s 5 TD passes in the opener vs Villanova. Going away from the run-based attack is a mistake but Stewart seems to be moving back to less passing. Colorado is a tough test and this will be a game in which we learn a lot about both teams.
PHIL’S FORECAST: West Virginia 30 COLORADO 27
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</td><td height="47">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="5">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="54">
</td><td colspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">S Carolina St
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</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
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</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Clemson
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</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="54">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="3">
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</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td height="1">
</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="880"><colgroup><col width="164"><col width="2"><col width="345"><col width="1"><col width="19"><col width="348"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" height="10">
</td><td rowspan="4" height="67">Clemson gave up an interception return for a TD on the first play last week and still won by 18. They should romp and click HERE to read more about South Carolina St.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Clemson 42 South Carolina St 0
</td><td height="10">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="51">
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</td><td colspan="2" height="51">
</td><td height="51">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" height="5">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="2" height="54">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="2" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Fresno St
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</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">
Toledo
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="1">
</td><td height="1">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="53">
</td><td height="53">
</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="513"><colgroup><col width="164"><col width="348"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td height="207">
</td><td height="207">I was really hoping to get Fresno St off a BIG win over Wisconsin (Fresno missed THREE FG’s and lost by 3). I said during the summer that they had a shot of beating all 3 BCS non-conference opponents. They just played in the biggest home game in school history and out of all their first 4 games, this is the one that none of the players even really looked at as Toledo has had a losing record the last two years. The only problem is that Toledo is not the injury-plagued team of last year (which lost 3 defensive starters in week 1 to injury for the season) and the Rockets are 41-6 in the Glass Bowl. The last 7 times that the Rockets have been a home dog, they have won won 6 of those games outright. Toledo becomes the hunter while Fresno, which is used to being the dog, becomes the hunted.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TOLEDO 27 Fresno St 23
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