CFB --Wed thru Sat (top unit play Sat)

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2008 posted on CTG

67-53, +28,275
__________________________________________________________

Nice win on NoIlly last night.. Stated I didn't think Kent would score much on the Huskie D and they did not.. Picked up 4 units to the good.. Need to crack through the 60+ unit barrier I have been flirting with.

Going to get a few plays from my Saturday card out early this week as I want to lock in some numbers. I'll list my leans/ games I am working on also..

I will have a play on the Wednesday night Ball State/CMU game but waiting on the weather.. BallSt at 6.5 is a very strong lean though. Just not sure how I am going to play it quite yet..

Locked in:

Vandy -3, -110; 6 units (top unit) LOSS

Copied/pasted from season win bet thread:

IOWA Hawkeyes over 7 wins, -155, 10 units (7750-5000) WIN


add:

tease Ball St pk W, Iowa +0.5; -110; 4 units.. WIN
Ball State -6, -110; 3 units WIN
Mia-Fla +3.5, -110; 5 units LOSS
mi/ gatech over 21 2H, -110; 6 units... WIN
James Starks Univ. +4, -110; 4 units WIN
Buff ML +170, 2 units WIN
Buffalo over 13 TT 2H, +100; 4 units WIN
Air Force +20, -110; 2 units LOSS
Illinois -2.5, -110; 4 units LOSS
Akron -2, -110; 4 units LOSS
Mich St +16, -110; 4 units LOSS
BYU +7, -120; 5 units LOSS
Iowa 1H -3, -120; 3 units WIN
Texas Tech +7, -110; 3 units LOSS
Texas Tech ML +220; 2 units.. LOSS
Pitt +6, -110; 4 units LOSS
pitt +3 2h , -115; 4 units WIN
Texas Tech pk, 2H, -105; 6 units.. LOSS
<!-- / message -->

__________________________________________________________
Notes on Vandy/ Tenny game:

  • I liked Vandy in this game before Tenny gave up on the season and even more now
  • Tennessee coming off a bye and saying all the right things but I am not buying it one bit. They gave up not just last week but the last three weeks having not scored in DD for three straight games, all losses
  • Vandy at home and riding high off of last weeks dominant performance over Kentucky. They outgained Kentucky 368-241 including a more than 2:1 edge in rushing and T.O.P. Keep in mind this is a Kentucky squad that was coming off a narrow loss to Ga., a win on the road at Miss St and a 3 point loss a few weeks ago at bama.
  • Vandy became bowl elig for the first time in 26 years and are looking to add to the resume.
  • Note: with thankgiving break Vandy stadium will still be sold out but with considerably less students.. Not really capping that point but just something to keep in mind at most home venues this weekend.
  • The stats for Vandy are very misleading because they got rolled statistically pretty bad by the Fla and Georgia offenses.. Take those two games out and this team ranks very well defensively.. And make no mistake, this Tenny offense is one a decent defense can handle. How do you get outgained at home 266-219 to Wyoming?
  • Chris Nickerson should start for Vandy at QB after strong performance lw.. I like him.
Summary-- Got a better team at home, riding high vs a team that was already limited, now has quit, laying 3 points.. Yep. Top unit.

Some will suggest that Tenny is in bounceback mode and want to send the coach out right.. Why didn't they do that the last 3 weeks? And as I stated above, even if they come out ready to play--- beating Vandy at home in this spot will be very difficult.. This one could get ugly..

Leans in no particular order.. (A few of these will be plays, many will not. But this is the list I am working on now.. As usual, I'll update this first screen as I lock additional plays in)

Ball St (played)
Buffalo (played)
Akron (Played)
Colly St (off)
Mich St (played)
Texas Tech (need 7)
Virg (off)
Air Force ( played)
BYU
and.......
Shonn Greene Univ. (need straight up win for 10 unit season win bet):23_31_4:
 
Last edited:
363602.jpg
Heisman%20Trophy.JPG
 
Your getting that season win bet.

MSU :shake:

Lean Ball :shake:

I think weather will be fine. Mind you Mt Pleasant is more up i nthe snow belt but looking at radar it doesn't look like it will be too much. Wind is very negliible here right now.

GL
 
As you know, already on Vandy. I think that one is great.

On BYU as well and MichST. Still looking at AF.

Let's get a Ball St. blow out tonight.

Good luck man.
 
I don't know if we discussed it but I was telling someone all the reasons I will be on Vandy. Seeing you on the 'Dores is reassuring.
 
add:

tease Ball St pk, Iowa +0.5; -110; 4 units..

Want more on Iowa SU win I guess..
 
AF on the move at my books...up to 20.

Is it going keep going that way? Think we could see three TD's?
 
add:

Ball State -6, -110; 3 units

CMU defense is so bad.. How will they keep up? Don't think they will.. If Lafleur gets down early and all the pressure is on him, it could get ugly IMO.. LOve the guy but he has no defense to help him especially vs Ball St..
 
GL tonight tee. BTW, wasn't trying to get you all upset by complaining about the officiating. But it has been bad. . you can't deny that.

Again, GL tonight and this week.

:shake:
 
tee*dub said:
Samuel, you are funny as shit... and a good capper:cheers:
Click to expand...

No my friend you are a Good Capper, I am just a Junior Tee Assistant Researcher, my problem is EMOTION-- Stock market also for anyone who loses big money usually related to EMOTION- not being able to control it-

My phone is ringing off the hook from Cousins from England are calling because they bet on Ball State tonight, when they heard you were on it, they were loading up on Ball State.



Allow me to to TEE and Associates for continued success in the upcoming months for Football season-
 
Tee, Check out Ole Miss. We play LSU close every year and are getting 4.5 in a day game. This is our year to "upest" them. Bank it - SU win. :shake:
 
Aztec4Life said:
GL tonight tee. BTW, wasn't trying to get you all upset by complaining about the officiating. But it has been bad. . you can't deny that.

Again, GL tonight and this week.

:shake:
Click to expand...

Aztec--- no worries at all.. Love your insights.. And have no problem with guys bitching about officiating.. I do to.. Its part of the game though and get frustrated when otherwise excellent cappers start calling the "game is fixed card" over and over... I probably need to lighten up but I really think it affects alot of good capper's judgement... It isn't fixed 99.9% of the time is all I am saying so focus on the game and the matchups and the trends.. Focus on the cerebral part of the game not the emotional part and we all will be more successful.. Buzz kill I know but think I am right.. I do. You are a good capper and I read and learn from your posts but when I see some of the bs I saw in the in-game tonight I just want to get away... No harm intended and please don't take it wrong...:shake:
 
Mags said:
Uh oh...
Click to expand...

Ya, I need to check the crowd I run with..

Rambleon--- a fucking Ole Miss homer, and
BlueChip-- a fucking LSU homer..

Now they are up against each other in a pillow fight...

:pillow:

:popcorn:

RambleOn is a fiesty dude but Blue Chip is MMA trained:4_12_12:
 
Notes on Mia-Fla at Ga Tech:

Missed this one on my original lean list.. Started looking at it last night and the more I looked the more I liked. Quick summary of my notes on the game:

  • In the past a Miami team with a 7-3 record and out of national titles hopes, would typically be going through the motions.. Quite the opposite with this team.. The are playing very well, especially defensively and are taking an "us against the world" mentality. They have a ton to play for as an Orange Bowl berth is not out of the question. Huge win last week vs VT and a lot of momentum.
  • Speaking of momentum, GT has none and their defense has been horrible the last three giving up 80 points.
  • Expect to see KEY Mi-Fla offensive lineman LT Jason Fox back tonight.. See he practiced Sunday and should be ready to go.. DO NOT miss that addition when capping this game..
  • Speaking of injuries, we kind of have to guess on the status of GT QB Nesbitt. I am sure he will play and start but how long will he last? And we have seen when he is out or less than healthy, this GT offense simply disappears.
  • How will they keep Nesbit healthy?.. Long night ahead in my opinion. GT QB's are getting sacked at an alarming rate. Read that they have been sacked once every 7.9 pass attempts.. Wow.Think that leads the nation or near it. Add to that-- Miami had a season high 6 sacks last week vs VT and we have a nice matchup trend working in Mia's favor. (this is a key point guys IMO)
  • GT has fumbled 17 times this year. Miami ball-hawking defense will look for the strip all night long.. Think they get one or two.
My summary would be this. I have the much better defense, against an offense with many question marks, incl health of QB and a team with all the momentum getting more than a fg.. Yep.. nearly top unit but not quite..

If I knew Nesbitt was 100% healthy, this would be 4 unit. If I knew Nebitt was still very banged up, this would be 6 unit.. I know neither so split the difference... Complicated huh?

GL all.. Seeing things pretty good now.. Lets keep it rolling..:cheers:
 
Great write-up.

Was going to stay away but have had similar sentiments looking over this this morning.

GL tonight.
 
good morning Samuel..:cheers:

___________________________________________________

I have a feeling this thread is going to get out of control this week-- which is why I usually start a new one each day.. Decided to see where it goes this week..:popcorn:
 
Thanks BAR or should it be B.A.G.

Big Al Greeno

363602.jpg


:smiley_acbe: Can't wait for Saturday night..:popcorn:
 
Blue_Chip said:
Where do you get updated injury reports? I'm waiting to get more definitive word on Nesbitt.
Click to expand...


Most accurate thing I can find is watching the pregame.....15 min. before kick or so we'll find out the real deal.

At this point even the coach might not know if he's gonna go....warmups/pregame will be the factor.

My guess is he goes but struggles.
 
aplous said:
Most accurate thing I can find is watching the pregame.....15 min. before kick or so we'll find out the real deal.

At this point even the coach might not know if he's gonna go....warmups/pregame will be the factor.

My guess is he goes but struggles.
Click to expand...

I agree but am scared because I do not have much wiggle room with the line already being at 3.5
 
Locked in, Tee. Basically putting money on the fact that Nesbitt won't play. May add quite a bit more if in pregame it is announced that he will not be playing. Line will probably change by historic proportions if that information came out sometime this afternoon.
 
he has been upgraded to probable (vegas insider and scores and odds). looks like he will play hard to tell how impaired he will be...
 
Yep, won't know until pregame warmups.. Even if they know he is not playing they will not divulge the information... NFL has rules against that but not CFB... I capped him in the game, though somewhat impaired.. I'll make it 6 units if he is out and I can still catch a decent number... If he is out this line may flip though so be careful if you like Miami regardless, which I do....
 
ohhh..

add;

mi/ gatech over 21 2H, -110; 6 units...

:smiley_acbe::smiley_acbe::smiley_acbe:
 
Glad to see you on the 2H over boss......locked it in as soon as I saw that line.....give me a Miami team that has to be aggressive and add in an aggressive GT defense, easily could get a ST or defensive TD in the 2H........let's cash it my friend....
 
scarf31 said:
Glad to see you on the 2H over boss......locked it in as soon as I saw that line.....give me a Miami team that has to be aggressive and add in an aggressive GT defense, easily could get a ST or defensive TD in the 2H........let's cash it my friend....
Click to expand...

exactly... Miami in hurry up mode is going to get ugly.. Either they come back or give up.. One or the other.. Both good for 2H over...
 
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