CFB-- Thur- Sat; week 10

GL TEE - you are in heavy on this little thursday night special. USF should feel lucky to still be in this one - may give them a better shot at coming back.

hate being against you, but can't wait for us to cash that big one on the Horns.

No play for me in the 2nd..just stickin with CIncy ml.

Look forward to the rest of your plays this weekend.
 
Tee i really like Texas also- Not sure why all the love for Texas Tech, they have beaten Texas before I think 2 years ago but that Texas team was not this strong-

I think Texas will not be upset when they are really looking for the game, I expect them to what Penn state did at Ohio state and win, they are better and win I think 8 out of 10 if not 8.5 out of 10 times--

USF has the following schedule, I think we can make a killing betting vs this team-
<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2 vAlign=top><TD height=18></TD><TD noWrap>Sat, Nov 15</TD><TD>Rutgers</TD><TD>TBA</TD><TD noWrap>--</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 vAlign=top><TD height=18></TD><TD noWrap>Sun, Nov 23</TD><TD>Connecticut</TD><TD>20:00</TD><TD noWrap>--</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 vAlign=top><TD height=18></TD><TD noWrap>Sat, Dec 6</TD><TD>at West Virginia</TD><TD>TBA</TD><TD noWrap>--</TD></TR><!-- post season games --><TR><TD class=yspscores align=left colSpan=4>
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USF is a team on my radar because I think being from a smaller Florida school that this program got national attention for some wins last year, but in reality the best team they beat was Kansas this year- What I see from USF is like a less talented version of the Denver Nuggets- this is a weak road team and a team that in reality cannot play 4 qtrs of football and is not a smart team. I really think we can play vs them, we just have to find which spot as they will be favored at home vs Rutgers and Connecticut and then be dogs vs West Virginia. This is a team I could see just packing it in, as they really seemed to play uninspired vs Loiusville and did not play well vs Cincy, but in reality I think they are bottom tier big east team. If that pass rush doesent dominate at home they will lose vs Rutgers and maybe connectitut-
It would appear that they are getting lines that they are a top tier big east team when in reality they are losing to everyone- Also it seems that playing for South Florida is like playing football in Hawaii, this is not a national contending program. I think that loss to Oregon exposed them for what they are, beating Kansas by a last second field goal and losing to everyone else. Also what can be proven is that they are not a good first half team at all-
Rutgers may be good vs them catching a Td or so.


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>C/ATT</TD><TD>YDS</TD><TD>AVG</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>INT</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD noWrap align=left>M. Grothe</TD><TD>13/31</TD><TD>174</TD><TD>5.6</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:hang: ... so much for motivation propelling this bitch to do better
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Tee i really like Texas also- Not sure why all the love for Texas Tech, they have beaten Texas before I think 2 years ago but that Texas team was not this strong-

I think Texas will not be upset when they are really looking for the game, I expect them to what Penn state did at Ohio state and win, they are better and win I think 8 out of 10 if not 8.5 out of 10 times--

USF has the following schedule, I think we can make a killing betting vs this team-
<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2 vAlign=top><TD height=18></TD><TD noWrap>Sat, Nov 15</TD><TD>Rutgers</TD><TD>TBA</TD><TD noWrap>--</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 vAlign=top><TD height=18></TD><TD noWrap>Sun, Nov 23</TD><TD>Connecticut</TD><TD>20:00</TD><TD noWrap>--</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 vAlign=top><TD height=18></TD><TD noWrap>Sat, Dec 6</TD><TD>at West Virginia</TD><TD>TBA</TD><TD noWrap>--</TD></TR><!-- post season games --><TR><TD class=yspscores align=left colSpan=4>
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USF is a team on my radar because I think being from a smaller Florida school that this program got national attention for some wins last year, but in reality the best team they beat was Kansas this year- What I see from USF is like a less talented version of the Denver Nuggets- this is a weak road team and a team that in reality cannot play 4 qtrs of football and is not a smart team. I really think we can play vs them, we just have to find which spot as they will be favored at home vs Rutgers and Connecticut and then be dogs vs West Virginia. This is a team I could see just packing it in, as they really seemed to play uninspired vs Loiusville and did not play well vs Cincy, but in reality I think they are bottom tier big east team. If that pass rush doesent dominate at home they will lose vs Rutgers and maybe connectitut-
It would appear that they are getting lines that they are a top tier big east team when in reality they are losing to everyone- Also it seems that playing for South Florida is like playing football in Hawaii, this is not a national contending program. I think that loss to Oregon exposed them for what they are, beating Kansas by a last second field goal and losing to everyone else. Also what can be proven is that they are not a good first half team at all-
Rutgers may be good vs them catching a Td or so.



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Agree with your writeup but don't bet against them at home. On the road they are pathetic. No way Rutgers wins at USF. Thinking that line will probably be around USF -6 maybe a tad higher.
 
Blue_Chip said:
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>C/ATT</TD><TD>YDS</TD><TD>AVG</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>INT</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD noWrap align=left>M. Grothe</TD><TD>13/31</TD><TD>174</TD><TD>5.6</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:hang: ... so much for motivation propelling this bitch to do better
Click to expand...

Admittedly, I totally miscapped this game.. Don't mind losses but when I totally miss some key capping components like I did on this one, it bothers me.. Grothe basically played the same game he played last year. Last year 4 INTs , this year 3INTs.... His first INT in the red zone where he basically just threw it up for grabs was telling.. But I didn't read it right and made the second half play and got more of the same.. Fuck.

This one will sting for awhile..

People say don't worry about one loss.. When I miss it that bad I worry..
 
Sometimes when you take so much, you have to give a little back.

Brush it off big dog, get back at it.
 
Tee*Dub,

A friend once told me, "Worry is paying interest on money you haven't borrowed!"

Your handicapping and judgement have been excellent lately, so don't let one game effect your confidence. You can't be right every time, losses come whether you miscap it or bad beats, so just keep on doing what you have been doing and move on. There are plenty of new games to focus on this week and I know with your skill and expertise you will continue rolling again!

Thanks for all the winners you have posted. Best wishes!
 
tee*dub said:
Admittedly, I totally miscapped this game.. Don't mind losses but when I totally miss some key capping components like I did on this one, it bothers me.. Grothe basically played the same game he played last year. Last year 4 INTs , this year 3INTs.... His first INT in the red zone where he basically just threw it up for grabs was telling.. But I didn't read it right and made the second half play and got more of the same.. Fuck.

This one will sting for awhile..

People say don't worry about one loss.. When I miss it that bad I worry..
Click to expand...

Tee, you are one of the best cappers on this loaded board, keep it up.
:tiphat:
 
add:

C Mich +1.5, -110; 4 units

Appears to me that Indy had to have everything and I mean everything go there way and still only eeked out a narrow victory at home vs NW last week.

NW had 5 turnovers including three key lost fumbles (Indy had no fumbles).. Indy used trick plays , a botched long snap turned into a first down etc.. Don't think they get the breaks this week vs a very good C Mich squad looking for theri first victory vs a BCS school in a long time.. Teams can pass on C Mich , no doubt but I just don't see Indy having the guns to exploit this weakness to a great degree..

I have Indy rated very low and have already profitted fading them a few times.. Looks like another good spot.
 
tee*dub said:
add:

C Mich +1.5, -110; 4 units

Appears to me that Indy had to have everything and I mean everything go there way and still only eeked out a narrow victory at home vs NW last week.

NW had 5 turnovers including three key lost fumbles (Indy had no fumbles).. Indy used trick plays , a botched long snap turned into a first down etc.. Don't think they get the breaks this week vs a very good C Mich squad looking for theri first victory vs a BCS school in a long time.. Teams can pass on C Mich , no doubt but I just don't see Indy having the guns to exploit this weakness to a great degree..

I have Indy rated very low and have already profitted fading them a few times.. Looks like another good spot.
Click to expand...



Gl with cmich tee and a great season so far , grats :cheers:


Wondering if you have an idea of how many snaps kellen lewis will see ?
 
vegaskyle said:
Also ... hoping for a 3 on iowa ?
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Yep, in no hurry. If I don't see it, I'll buy it.. But think we'll see it. Thing with Iowa is they are now getting very deep.. Typical Ferentz coached team.. They always get better as the year progresses and they always get deeper.. RB Hampton is an example.. He is very legit behind Greene and because Greene is a 100% effort guy on every play its important to have depth there..That made Iowa so much better.

This is why Ferentz has an incredible ATS record through the years IMO.. People have a tendancy to bet the team they saw early in the year not the team that is playing now.. And with Iowa there is a huge disparity.. They are a handicappers dream team because they always stay under the radar.. And vegas always put out "perception lines" not real lines on this team. It is quite amazing really.. When I see you and BAR and other respected cappers quietly get on them each week, I do this:smiley_acbe:.

Can't wait to see what they make Iowa at home vs Penn State.
 
vegaskyle said:
Wondering if you have an idea of how many snaps kellen lewis will see ?
Click to expand...

Nothing thats not available to the masses. I got a buddy who follows the Big Ten closely and can sometimes get me stuff on injuries but he has nothing here.. "Probable" is the best I have.

Here's the way I capped it.. If he plays he will be rusty and probably not 100% physically.. So in other words I don't see a big advantage/ disadvantage either way.. Think its pretty neutral.. Central Michigan is going to score-- Indy will need to get a lot of breaks to keep up IMO.. Thats the way I see it anyway..

Great thread you do each week btw.
 
HUNTDOG said:
do you ever lose?
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He does, when I selectively follow him. Pretty sure last weekend his only loss was CMU, guess which one & only game I tailed him on? FWIW I won't touch CMU again, been burned too many times so they will cash tomorrow. Keep up the good work Tee. Love Texas.
 
GL Tee - I was disappointed with SF offensive line last night. Thought they plain and simple didn't get the job done. Also the reliance on the inside running game kind of got old and they never had much success with it. The SF passing game was just kind of dink and dunk underneath stuff all night long too. The real killer was that illegal procedure penalty on the two yard line where they susbsequently got stopped on downs. Tough but this team just keeps killing themselves with penalties. Better luck to us tomorrow.
 
Timh said:
GL Tee - I was disappointed with SF offensive line last night. Thought they plain and simple didn't get the job done. Also the reliance on the inside running game kind of got old and they never had much success with it. The SF passing game was just kind of dink and dunk underneath stuff all night long too. The real killer was that illegal procedure penalty on the two yard line where they susbsequently got stopped on downs. Tough but this team just keeps killing themselves with penalties. Better luck to us tomorrow.
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Ya, as bad as they were they had a real good chance to cover the 2nd half line... Grothe's decision making has just got to improve.. He has all the physical skills but damn kid, work through your progressions and make some decent decisions.. I really thought he would be much better. That is where I missed it... Still pissed because I thought he would change at HT and he did not and I doubled my losses.. Inexcusable on my part..
 
I am off Virginia.. Its not near as good of spot as Central MIchigan IMO and I am going to keep it very very selective this Saturday.. I am on some games I really like and am not going to add the marginal 2 unit play.. Would endorse it, but not playing it personally..:popcorn:
 
tee*dub said:
Yep, in no hurry. If I don't see it, I'll buy it.. But think we'll see it. Thing with Iowa is they are now getting very deep.. Typical Ferentz coached team.. They always get better as the year progresses and they always get deeper.. RB Hampton is an example.. He is very legit behind Greene and because Greene is a 100% effort guy on every play its important to have depth there..That made Iowa so much better.

This is why Ferentz has an incredible ATS record through the years IMO.. People have a tendancy to bet the team they saw early in the year not the team that is playing now.. And with Iowa there is a huge disparity.. They are a handicappers dream team because they always stay under the radar.. And vegas always put out "perception lines" not real lines on this team. It is quite amazing really.. When I see you and BAR and other respected cappers quietly get on them each week, I do this:smiley_acbe:.

Can't wait to see what they make Iowa at home vs Penn State.[/quote]

Very interested in this as well. GL this week TD, I'm on the Hawkeyes with you for a 4th straight game as well.
Click to expand...
 
Tee appreciate all the good work and remember you are the man, a lethal combination of speed, number crunching, logic, common sense, analytical skills--

You are almost as legendary as this guy

Tee everyone once in a while there is a game like USF happens- Its like this, in this business we are in, is exactly like dating strippers. We all date different strippers and we get to pick which strippers we date- You have been able to pick the good strippers and you are able to figure out which strippers are good date material and basically good company. You were rarely deceived by any strippers. So this is = to you picking good games-

In the USF case it was just the matter of 1 stripper deceiving you a bit, and you were a bit mislead, thats all it was. You are still the man when it comes to picking strippers that you know their character inside out.
USF was just a bad ass stripper that caught us on a bad day and got the better of us, but with strippers bro it happens, thats the cost of dating strippers.

There's a new slate of strippers to pick from on Saturday and I already am pumped about the stripper from Texas, I think you have a good read on that Stripper, it looks like she will put out tomorrow night--

No need to worry bro, have to look ahead and forward, we will dominate and pick up some solid strippers.

I like your attitude though, I am the same way, i dont care about losing or winning, I care more about the reasons why I am losing plays and why I am winning. ONce i Corrected this TEE i have been collecting weekly off the bookie as I know why I lose- just like you have done, It is good to be pissed, but its time to move and find some more strippers that put out.


 
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Sammy Meatballs said:
Tee appreciate all the good work and remember you are the man, a lethal combination of speed, number crunching, logic, common sense, analytical skills--

You are almost as legendary as this guy

Tee everyone once in a while there is a game like USF happens- Its like this, in this business we are in, is exactly like dating strippers. We all date different strippers and we get to pick which strippers we date- You have been able to pick the good strippers and you are able to figure out which strippers are good date material and basically good company. You were rarely deceived by any strippers. So this is = to you picking good games-

In the USF case it was just the matter of 1 stripper deceiving you a bit, and you were a bit mislead, thats all it was. You are still the man when it comes to picking strippers that you know their character inside out.
USF was just a bad ass stripper that caught us on a bad day and got the better of us, but with strippers bro it happens, thats the cost of dating strippers.

There's a new slate of strippers to pick from on Saturday and I already am pumped about the stripper from Texas, I think you have a good read on that Stripper, it looks like she will put out tomorrow night--

No need to worry bro, have to look ahead and forward, we will dominate and pick up some solid strippers.

I like your attitude though, I am the same way, i dont care about losing or winning, I care more about the reasons why I am losing plays and why I am winning. ONce i Corrected this TEE i have been collecting weekly off the bookie as I know why I lose- just like you have done, It is good to be pissed, but its time to move and find some more strippers that put out.


Click to expand...

not even sure how to respond to this..:cheers:
 
Iowa line getting away from me now. Probably play the ML but still waiting.. Would endorse the +2 or the ML. JUst haven't decided which way I am going yet..

This is telling IMO:

Illinois rsuhing vs Wisky-

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #f77329"><TD colSpan=5>Illinois Rushing</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>CAR</TD><TD>YDS</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>LG</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD noWrap align=left>Ford</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>13</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD noWrap align=left>Dufrene</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Iowa rushing vs Wisky:

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: #000000"><TD colSpan=5>Iowa Rushing</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>CAR</TD><TD>YDS</TD><TD>TD</TD><TD>LG</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD noWrap align=left>Greene</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>217</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>52</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD noWrap align=left>Hampton</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>13</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

In summary, a defense that nearly shut down Illinois running game completley was absolutely shredded by Shonn Greene and company... And Iowa's run defense is better than Wisky's.

Two points here, One,like everyone before them, Illinois is going to find very little room on the ground vs Iowa. Two, Iowa should put up large numbers in the running game..

I really don't expect a real fast start by Iowa (1H bettors beware) but will wear Illy down and should be able to add on late..
 
Iowa +2.5 and ML, Minny -5.5, and Ole Miss -6 for me today so far. Gonna lay off Texas bc as you have said many times before, I see that one as gambling. I see Texas's strengths but I feel that if they are going to lose any game, it is going to be this one. BOL with that one and the rest. 2 weeks till CBB. :prayer
 
RambleOn said:
Iowa +2.5 and ML, Minny -5.5, and Ole Miss -6 for me today so far. Gonna lay off Texas bc as you have said many times before, I see that one as gambling. I see Texas's strengths but I feel that if they are going to lose any game, it is going to be this one. BOL with that one and the rest. 2 weeks till CBB. :prayer
Click to expand...


I not only see TT losing this one, I see them losing the next 3...

Surprised to see you on Ole Miss.;):36_7_1:

GL today bro.. Looks like a winning card..:cheers:
 
add:

Iowa line bouncing around. Decided to pick it up @ +3, -120 when it became available again..

Iowa +3, -120; 4 units
KU -1, Minny -0.5, -120; 3 units (ties push)
 
tee*dub said:
I not only see TT losing this one, I see them losing the next 3...

Surprised to see you on Ole Miss.;):36_7_1:

GL today bro.. Looks like a winning card..:cheers:
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Actually haven't bet it yet. Something is keeping me off although I think we finally play a complete game today. May decide to just get involved at halftime.

Nice to see you added Iowa bro, you turned me on to them earlier in the year. :shake:
 
staying on my CMU bet... Those who don't like it can get out--couldn't argue too much with that..
 
I got out of CMU. Don't like CMU's defense and this could go either way IMO.

Glad to see you like Minny 2nd H. Almost bought out of that one too but I think I'm going to ride it out. :shake:
 
Blue_Chip said:
Did you expect CMU to be up big at half?
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2H's have not been good to the hoosiers.. Iowa led only 17-9 I think at half. Then killed them in 2H.. Indy has had a few games like that.. Thats my bet.. As I thought CMU will score.. Surprised a bit by Indy but when I ask myself, which team has the best chance to keep the scoring pace up-- take CMU
 
Blue_Chip said:
Was he a gametime decision? I can't see the game and I read this morning he was playing?
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Ya, knew is was a possibility.. But backup Brunner is more than capable.. Already passed for 420 yards so far.. CMU just not getting enough stops....yet... missed xtra point by Indy looms large
 
stalking a potential Iowa 2H play.. Greene is getting it going and I am seeing a bigtime advantage to Iowa up front.. They do this.. Wear teams down... Iowa in redzone 3 times. Only two FGs but thats OK.. Defense is limiting Juice's options... Like everything really...

Give me a decent 2H opp and I pound it...

stalk mode.
 
tee*dub said:
stalking a potential Iowa 2H play.. Greene is getting it going and I am seeing a bigtime advantage to Iowa up front.. They do this.. Wear teams down... Iowa in redzone 3 times. Only two FGs but thats OK.. Defense is limiting Juice's options... Like everything really...

Give me a decent 2H opp and I pound it...

stalk mode.
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If only they can do something offensively when they get in the RZ
 
10-6 Illinois..

Make it a 2H pk em.. I am on it for another 2 dimes if they run that out there.
 
PK it is. Just played it for 2u. Watched this whole game so far. Iowa is getting the opportunities just not cashing in. Greene will get going
 
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