CFB ML Dogs

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
I don't have much time anymore. But I will try to post what I am betting. The short of any explanation I give is that the return makes the risk somewhat valuable to me. For those that don't know, in ML dogs I try to hit 38%. 40% means making a lot of money.

We are in the time of year where a lot of conference games are turning up a lot of close games....that aren't really getting matched up well with the odds. If you can get a coin flip...or better yet the chance to win a +200 game off a reasonable FG attempt, then that's the sort of thing I'm going for. Many of my wagers will appear stupid as hell before AND after the game, and others might make me look pretty damned smart.

Games I won't be playing this week:

Clemson - no value vs WF, but I do think the tigers have a good shot to win
UAB - what a joke. They couldn't even beat Memphis at home last week. No way vs Houston
Memphis - of the weekday games, this one is the best shot at an upset, I think. at 225, I don't really want to bite, but if you can get better than that, then you might want to consider it.
Virginia - another joke. UVA has taken Duke's spot in the ACC cellar drain. ECU beat them last year by 10, and unless the Pirates choke like they did against NCSU, the Cavs just won't even be close. I might consider laying the chalk there...
Syracuse - I'm not so sure WVU is THIS bad yet.....Cuse has been rivaling UVA for ass....
Northwestern - limp dick for value
Army - again, no value...especially against EMU.
Kentucky - might win. at a pk, I don't care.
W. Michigan - see Kentucky.
Mississippi St - More inclined to take Vandy...AGAIN....geez.
Wyoming - yeah right. Not fading Utah here.
Texas A&M - not even 150 for +3...fucking bullshit.
Purdue - they're visiting OhioSt, so they'll have flu symptoms all day.
Oklahoma St - not going back to the fade Mizzou well this week.
Tennessee - have they stopped sucking yet? UGA is lookin at double revenge. Wait for Tenny to take on Bama...the whole Vol season hinges on bama....always does.
Arizona ST - why bother. It's not like they're the vaunted powerhouse of Oregon St....
Toledo - they're no app st. Getting blanked at home by ball st isn't a good sign when they're going against UM's defense...
Notre Dame - golden asshats. Not for me. And not against this up and coming smurf team.
Arkansas - no.
New Mexico St. - are they in the sunbelt yet? Or will the sun belt not take them...?
Miami OH - will have to win a Div 1 game this year before I bother with them.
New MExico - nope. Mormons are spirited and powerful.
Washington St - should play Miami OH so I can bother with Miami, OH...
BGSU @ Akron - motherfuckers and their pk games.
Kent st - where's my value, bitches?
Rutgers - is Cinci good enough to be a 7.5pt fave? Hmm, rutgers is bad enough to be...yet another team that needs to win vs Div1 this season.
Nebraska - TT is too good, and the huskers need a defense. Graham Harrell will have 3 to 5 TD passes at least.
Central FL - this is one of those that can be a big upset. Not sure how Miami is thinking after losing AGAIN. One decent win (against TAMU) isn't a big thumbs up for the Canes, but the defense alone should outscore UCF. At UCF, I think this would be a very valuable 4:1, but at Miami....not so much.
Utah St - maybe I should, but I just can't do it until the Idaho Vandals are favored to them...
Southern Meth - no.
Southern Miss - I just don't see it.
Tulane - I'd like to fade UTEP, but I just can't put money on Tulane. Not much value anyway.
SDSU - Aztec4Life will have to convince me of this one...again, I just don't see it.
Idaho - possibly the worst bunch of peewee ratfucks to ever strap on pads. We could pull a few dozen out of a mental ward to beat this "team".
Louisiana Tech - I don't fade Hawaii on the island with a bad team.
w. Kentucky - Really don't think so.
UL Monroe - this is one of my two favorite conferences to fiddle with, but ARky St is too good for this team. ULM needs to win a Div1 game before they think about beating a top 60 or so Div1 team.
MTSU - no value.
North Texas - Neither team could stop a parked car from rolling through a defense. they both allow over 450 ypg. ULL rushes it. NT Passes it. Poorly.

Games I'm looking at:

Indiana +200ish - if nothing else, this Hawkeyes squad manages to lose close games...dropping the last 3 by a total of 9 points. Indy also beat them the last 2 years...last year it was a 38-20 shelling. Course, Indiana hasn't beaten anyone recently either.....
Minnesota +425 - is this minny team for real...? geez...
Texas +225 - I think OK wins, but I gotta give this some thought...the longhorns are pretty fucking good too.
Iowa St +185 - gotta think about it. ISU might be better (not that that's saying too much)....but they'll have to limit Baylor's rushing yards.
Temple +270 - CMU did squeak by Buffalo...Temple still isn't winning, but they've been competitive, and it's only a matter of time before they start winning some of these. This might be the day they start.
Colorado St +550 - cheapass bullshit. Yet I gotta consider it. Will the Rams offense outscore TCU's defense? Maybe....
Colorado +425 - well, okay, I can see the Buffs winning this one......maybe even as much as a 40% chance. Kansas still needs to win a difficult game...
Wisconsin +200 - top 15 caliber teams, and the home team gets 2:1. Home team won the last 4 meetings. Wisky has GOT to stop losing these close ones. I think this one comes down to a TD or less. In any event, I gotta consider it. No one's really been close to PSU, but I think this bunch might get it done this week.
LSU +200 - I think florida can lose another at home. Especially to what I think might just be a better defense in LSU (certainly better rushing defense). What do we make of Hatch's injury?

in the "what the fuck?" department:

UCLA @ Oregon. is +18 right here?
 
UCLA +18 is one of those where there has to be value in taking them ML. But I think Oregon probably covers that line just based on how bad UCLA is on the road and how bad their offense is... they will get gased defensively vs. Oregon if they don't figure something out.
 
hey red nice to see ya around and starting the CFB version of the ML threads ....

Chime in at some point when I get more research finished....

Wisky looks good in terms of value as does LSU . Temple is very attractive IMO . Do not like Colorado as they lost some OL and have been poor on offense the past 2 weeks granted tough opposing defenses and teams but not something I fancy .

The one I really disagree with is Indiana . This team is really struggling on offense . Look at the Minny game they did zip besides hit 1 big play . Then look @ Mich State game they kept it close for awhile because they had 2 big play TDs and some big chunk plays. The Iowa defense is one of the better ones it has faced and just expect more offensive woes here . The Iowa offense is great at shooting itself in the foot and finding ways to fuck up I'll agree but with Iowa having the better defense think this is the game the get it right on the scoreboard .....

Also UCLA has no offense and a medicore defense . Remember it self destrutced @ BYU badly . Oregon is nothing special but to lose this game at home would be shocking maybe earth shattering . UCLA struggled to run and score vs Wash State .....:36_11_6:

Good Luck bro !:cheers:
 
ya, I'm not really thinking the Ducks lose in Autzen...that line just looks fucked up to me. It's one of those where there might be value in taking a long shot, but it'll almost certainly lose.
 
redbearde said:
Games I'm looking at:

Indiana +200ish - if nothing else, this Hawkeyes squad manages to lose close games...dropping the last 3 by a total of 9 points. Indy also beat them the last 2 years...last year it was a 38-20 shelling. Course, Indiana hasn't beaten anyone recently either.....
Minnesota +425 - is this minny team for real...? geez...
Texas +225 - I think OK wins, but I gotta give this some thought...the longhorns are pretty fucking good too.
Iowa St +185 - gotta think about it. ISU might be better (not that that's saying too much)....but they'll have to limit Baylor's rushing yards.
Temple +270 - CMU did squeak by Buffalo...Temple still isn't winning, but they've been competitive, and it's only a matter of time before they start winning some of these. This might be the day they start.
Colorado St +550 - cheapass bullshit. Yet I gotta consider it. Will the Rams offense outscore TCU's defense? Maybe....
Colorado +425 - well, okay, I can see the Buffs winning this one......maybe even as much as a 40% chance. Kansas still needs to win a difficult game...
Wisconsin +200 - top 15 caliber teams, and the home team gets 2:1. Home team won the last 4 meetings. Wisky has GOT to stop losing these close ones. I think this one comes down to a TD or less. In any event, I gotta consider it. No one's really been close to PSU, but I think this bunch might get it done this week.
LSU +200 - I think florida can lose another at home. Especially to what I think might just be a better defense in LSU (certainly better rushing defense). What do we make of Hatch's injury?

in the "what the fuck?" department:

UCLA @ Oregon. is +18 right here?
Click to expand...


Indiana--completely agree. Ferentz may be about to lose his job and I just don't see this team recovering after 2 heartbreaking losses in a row.

Minny--I have them at +375. I'm also impressed with Illinois and dare I say that I feel Zook is now a decent coach. I don't see them losing at home and if the game were played 4 times then I think Illinois wins all 4 of them. I realize its a sandwich situation but I still feel that Minny is a very bad team. I guess we'll see this weekend

Texas--agree. I see this game as much closer to a tossup than Texas -7. I got burned on tOSU but this one is at a neutral site so I do feel better regarding that. I also trust Will Muschamp to bring some heat and have a very effective gameplan come Saturday.

Iowa State--again agreed in my thread. Baylor as a fav against a BCS team is fade for me until proven otherwise

Temple--tough defense. Offense showed out a little bit last week. I will certainly look into it more. Lefevour and company still scare me but Temple does have a chance to shut them down here IMO.

Colorado--looked into it a little more and agree. I watched the whole Kansas vs ISU game and was not impressed with Kansas. Not even really in the 2nd half when they couldn't put the game away.

Wisky--HUGE game for the Badgers. They cannot lose this game and have a shot at what is considered a decent season in Madison. They will certainly lay it all on the line and at > +200 it may very well be worth a shot.

LSU--couldn't agree more. Les wins big games PERIOD
 
Blue_Chip said:
We make nothing of Hatch's injury.
Click to expand...

well...these quotes come from here.

In the first half of the game against Auburn Coach Miles was rotating QB's Andrew Hatch and Jarrett Lee. Hatch could scratch out a few yards on the ground, and Lee threw well to the other team. After Hatch was knocked silly by an Auburn defender running up the middle Jarrett Lee became a totally different QB in the second half. Lee stayed in the pocket taking hits to connect on TD passes, checked down and found the open man, and showed off his cannon of an arm. After starting the first half 0 for 5 with an INT, Lee finished the game 11 for 22 for 182 yards and two scores
If Jarrett Lee can handle the Auburn defense, the War Eagle, and the pressure of that game then I have no worries about his future under center for the Tigers and I don't think Coach Miles will either. If you've got a roster spot Lee is worth the speculative add.
Click to expand...

and then

Despite Jarrett Lee's play in the second half of Saturday night's game against Auburn, head coach Les Miles is leaving the quarterback position open for now.
Andrew Hatch split time early on with Lee but left the game early after taking a hard shot. Look for Lee to get the start this weekend against Mississippi State and we'll have to wait and see how much Hatch plays. Avoid for now.
Click to expand...

So either Lee is sufficient, or Hatch will play.

Blue_Chip said:
Out of Wisky, LSU, and Tex, you will have a winner or two... or perhaps three
Click to expand...

I will hope for three.
 
I would like for Hatch to serve as a distraction by running and passing when in the game. Lee is our pure passer. He has a rifle for an arm, which everyone knows, but I think he has problems reading coverage. Luckily, UF's secondary a step or three down from Auburn's so Lee should be fine.

The interesting thing to me was the postgame interviews from Miles and Crowton. Miles said they planned to let Lee play the 2H, so Hatch getting hurt did not alter plans that much. Crowton said they planned on leaving Hatch in the game until Lee was needed. Inconsistencies with the stories, but I think it all boils down to what I've been saying all along: Lee has the stronger arm and with a great OL and solid running game a mobile QB is not as relevant to success.
 
Hey red ,,, i would give miami ohio a good look. Really solid defense that will keep them in most conference games this year. Yeah they have some losses but they were better than temple in defeat last week and at michigan , vs cincy and the loss to vanderbilt are some tough games. worth a look with one of the best linebacker groups in the country and a team in northern illinois that rates to be one of the lesser double digit favorites we see this year.
 
Appealing ML dogs:

Clemson +115
Wisconsin +200
Southern Miss +350 -- has talent and their homefield advantage is often overlooked
Rutgers +260 -- they can hang with the Bearcats
UL-Monroe +450 -- Arky St does not play big games well, and this is a conference matchup
Tulane +165 -- simply the better team at over 1.5-to-1 on your money
 
there he is..about time...seriously one of the best threads you will find on the net every week.
 
redbearde said:
I don't have much time anymore. But I will try to post what I am betting. The short of any explanation I give is that the return makes the risk somewhat valuable to me. For those that don't know, in ML dogs I try to hit 38%. 40% means making a lot of money.

We are in the time of year where a lot of conference games are turning up a lot of close games....that aren't really getting matched up well with the odds. If you can get a coin flip...or better yet the chance to win a +200 game off a reasonable FG attempt, then that's the sort of thing I'm going for. Many of my wagers will appear stupid as hell before AND after the game, and others might make me look pretty damned smart.

Games I won't be playing this week:

Clemson - no value vs WF, but I do think the tigers have a good shot to win
UAB - what a joke. They couldn't even beat Memphis at home last week. No way vs Houston
Memphis - of the weekday games, this one is the best shot at an upset, I think. at 225, I don't really want to bite, but if you can get better than that, then you might want to consider it.
Virginia - another joke. UVA has taken Duke's spot in the ACC cellar drain. ECU beat them last year by 10, and unless the Pirates choke like they did against NCSU, the Cavs just won't even be close. I might consider laying the chalk there...
Syracuse - I'm not so sure WVU is THIS bad yet.....Cuse has been rivaling UVA for ass....
Northwestern - limp dick for value
Army - again, no value...especially against EMU.
Kentucky - might win. at a pk, I don't care.
W. Michigan - see Kentucky.
Mississippi St - More inclined to take Vandy...AGAIN....geez.
Wyoming - yeah right. Not fading Utah here.
Texas A&M - not even 150 for +3...fucking bullshit.
Purdue - they're visiting OhioSt, so they'll have flu symptoms all day.
Oklahoma St - not going back to the fade Mizzou well this week.
Tennessee - have they stopped sucking yet? UGA is lookin at double revenge. Wait for Tenny to take on Bama...the whole Vol season hinges on bama....always does.
Arizona ST - why bother. It's not like they're the vaunted powerhouse of Oregon St....
Toledo - they're no app st. Getting blanked at home by ball st isn't a good sign when they're going against UM's defense...
Notre Dame - golden asshats. Not for me. And not against this up and coming smurf team.
Arkansas - no.
New Mexico St. - are they in the sunbelt yet? Or will the sun belt not take them...?
Miami OH - will have to win a Div 1 game this year before I bother with them.
New MExico - nope. Mormons are spirited and powerful.
Washington St - should play Miami OH so I can bother with Miami, OH...
BGSU @ Akron - motherfuckers and their pk games.
Kent st - where's my value, bitches?
Rutgers - is Cinci good enough to be a 7.5pt fave? Hmm, rutgers is bad enough to be...yet another team that needs to win vs Div1 this season.
Nebraska - TT is too good, and the huskers need a defense. Graham Harrell will have 3 to 5 TD passes at least.
Central FL - this is one of those that can be a big upset. Not sure how Miami is thinking after losing AGAIN. One decent win (against TAMU) isn't a big thumbs up for the Canes, but the defense alone should outscore UCF. At UCF, I think this would be a very valuable 4:1, but at Miami....not so much.
Utah St - maybe I should, but I just can't do it until the Idaho Vandals are favored to them...
Southern Meth - no.
Southern Miss - I just don't see it.
Tulane - I'd like to fade UTEP, but I just can't put money on Tulane. Not much value anyway.
SDSU - Aztec4Life will have to convince me of this one...again, I just don't see it.
Idaho - possibly the worst bunch of peewee ratfucks to ever strap on pads. We could pull a few dozen out of a mental ward to beat this "team".
Louisiana Tech - I don't fade Hawaii on the island with a bad team.
w. Kentucky - Really don't think so.
UL Monroe - this is one of my two favorite conferences to fiddle with, but ARky St is too good for this team. ULM needs to win a Div1 game before they think about beating a top 60 or so Div1 team.
MTSU - no value.
North Texas - Neither team could stop a parked car from rolling through a defense. they both allow over 450 ypg. ULL rushes it. NT Passes it. Poorly.

Games I'm looking at:

Indiana +200ish - if nothing else, this Hawkeyes squad manages to lose close games...dropping the last 3 by a total of 9 points. Indy also beat them the last 2 years...last year it was a 38-20 shelling. Course, Indiana hasn't beaten anyone recently either.....
Minnesota +425 - is this minny team for real...? geez...
Texas +225 - I think OK wins, but I gotta give this some thought...the longhorns are pretty fucking good too.
Iowa St +185 - gotta think about it. ISU might be better (not that that's saying too much)....but they'll have to limit Baylor's rushing yards.
Temple +270 - CMU did squeak by Buffalo...Temple still isn't winning, but they've been competitive, and it's only a matter of time before they start winning some of these. This might be the day they start.
Colorado St +550 - cheapass bullshit. Yet I gotta consider it. Will the Rams offense outscore TCU's defense? Maybe....
Colorado +425 - well, okay, I can see the Buffs winning this one......maybe even as much as a 40% chance. Kansas still needs to win a difficult game...
Wisconsin +200 - top 15 caliber teams, and the home team gets 2:1. Home team won the last 4 meetings. Wisky has GOT to stop losing these close ones. I think this one comes down to a TD or less. In any event, I gotta consider it. No one's really been close to PSU, but I think this bunch might get it done this week.
LSU +200 - I think florida can lose another at home. Especially to what I think might just be a better defense in LSU (certainly better rushing defense). What do we make of Hatch's injury?

in the "what the fuck?" department:

UCLA @ Oregon. is +18 right here?
Click to expand...

I really like Minny, Iowa St., and Colo. Only one I don't like is Indiana, I think Iowa is solid and Indy is yuk. I also think Okie St. is worth a shot, not as a mizzu fade so much, but really think they are a mizzu turnover or two away from winning that game.

Good stuff as always Red, cant wait for the league to start. :cheers:
 
Fukkin priceless...just great stuff redbearde....love Wiscy to give JoePa he can handle this week......also believe the UCLA/Oregon line is way the fukk out of whack...line should be in the 12 range imo....problem is that all the pac-10 sharpies around are lining up deep to bet oregon with both fists...that is really the only thing keeping me off the game...could very well see a single digit/final possession game.

on one of your "pass" games, I think S. Miss gives boise hell this weekend....boise lucky to get on the plane with a win imo....

GL and thx for the efforts....love the work
 
thx for the kind words, guys.

I did play my looking at games. Southern Miss and Tulane are both games I considered....I can't watch games, so I'm not familiar enough with them to be comfortable thinking they can do it. Ditto for Miami Oh. I thought about them but bypassed em. I'll think on it a bit, I guess...
 
Last edited:
red - Thanks for popping in to post this thread again!

FYI, I'm on Air Force -10 this week, and big. That might give you an idea of how I feel about the Aztecs chances of winning outright.

GL buddy!

:shake:
 
Tulane outyarded Bama @ Tuscaloosa.

I think they are the better team.

Enjoy your thread. BOL this weekend.
 
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