CFB ML Dogs week 5

Louisville -8 (-107)

I would be shocked if NCSU manages to keep this in single digits. Absolutely shocked.
 
Information on your Cal pick. I don't have the guts to play all those dogs SU like you, but here is one of the few I will play.


Oregon's run defense
The Ducks are allowing 164.8 rushing yards per game, an inordinately large amount for a "good" team. If California reaches that figure, it's hard to see how the Ducks can win the game, no matter how well Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and the Ducks' other offensive stars play. Golden Bears TBs Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best and James Montgomery – not to mention Cal coach Jeff Tedford – have to be salivating at the thought of running right at that Ducks defensive front. If the tailbacks run wild, Cal QB Nate Longshore is going to have a lot of fun using play-action and throwing deep.
 
and as much shit as we give Cal's defense, they do have some speed, and that's what they'll need against that fast rush of Oregon.

:shake:
 
red - Ohio is up to +3, and +130 ML (at home against Kent St). Enough value to pull the trigger? This will be Kent's 4th road game this season, and their second straight.

With you on tOSU and Cal ML. GL bro! :cheers:
 
regarding TEXAS A&M

Like most folks near a coastline, Texas A&M is happy to be done with Hurricanes.

A&M (3-1) was decked for its first loss of the season by Miami (Fla.) last week and dropped out of the national rankings for the first time this year.

Aggie coach Dennis Franchione said the overall attitude of the team remains positive and a much needed rest was taken over the weekend before getting back to practice to prepare for Big 12 play.

"Sunday, was kind of a bonus practice for us," he said. "Sunday we were able to get back to fundamentals and focus on ourselves."

A big concern will be the way both sides of the ball respond to the loss. The Aggies were shut down on the ground for the first time in two seasons and the defense saw 31 points light up on the board in less than three quarters.

Baylor (3-1) has had some level of success with A&M but not necessarily at Kyle Field. The last Bears win came more than 20 years ago when Baylor beat A&M 20-16 in 1984.

Although the Aggies already have three wins under their belt, quarterback Stephen McGee and the rest of the A&M players and staff know what tests are ahead, and how much they will mean to this season.

"Coach has been preaching at us," he said. "We lost the game and we have to put it behind us because these are the ones that count now. The thing about football is no matter what happens the week before you have to put it behind you."
Click to expand...

news and quotes

--RB Jorvorskie Lane is looking to rebound against Baylor after having only two yards on two rushing attempts against Miami (Fla.) last week. The junior tailback was held to 54 yards last season against the Baylor but will need to take advantage of the attempts shared with Mike Goodson.

--Misi Tupe had his biggest game this season against Miami, leading the Aggies in tackles (10) while getting only one of two sacks on the day. Tupe and teammate Mark Dodge will have to get the rest of the A&M Wrecking Crew on the same page after giving up 31 consecutive points last week.

SCOUTING THE OFFENSE: The running game was gone for the first time all season and the passing game was nowhere to be found to help pick up the slack last week. The Aggies remain as a strong running team, but only time will tell how well teams will pickup on the same things Miami did. TE Martellus Bennett is officially the best receiver on the team with 215 yards this season and doesn't mind blocking either. Jorvorskie Lane will have to get more than two touches if the Aggies want to keep their "thunder and lightning" combination out of the backfield.

SCOUTING THE DEFENSE: The Aggies spent a lot of time -- way too much, in fact -- on the field last week vs. Miami. LB Misi Tupe tried everything possible to stop the Hurricanes in short-yardage situations but good play-calling helped Miami slide by. With more passing teams ahead than teams who thrive in the running game, the secondary will show how deep the Aggies really are on the corners.
Click to expand...

strategy & personnel

THIS WEEK'S GAME: Baylor, Sept. 29 -- The Aggies lead the overall series 64-30-9 and have only lost one contest since the Big 12's formation in 1996. Both team come into the game with 3-1 records and will need this first conference win to help begin a tougher schedule ahead. Still two weeks away, Texas A&M will travel to Lincoln, Neb., and Lubbock, Texas, before taking on Oklahoma in Norman.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: QB Stephen McGee -- McGee is his biggest critic and he knows that the offense can only work as well as he can run it. He helps get the run going with his own legs and his arm. While he may not get many passing opportunities each game, he will have to do his best to take full advantage of them.

LB Mark Dodge -- The senior linebacker and Misi Tupe will have to help lead the defense to a solid performance against the Bears after giving up 402 yards to Miami last week.

TE Martellus Bennett -- Each week the 6-foot-7 tight end becomes more involved in the offensive scheme. He's solid on third downs and can block well on the outside to help running backs Mike Goodson and Jorvorskie Lane. He found the end zone for the first time this season and wants to get back there more often.

ROSTER REPORT: No new injuries.
Click to expand...

and then there's BAYLOR
http://baylor.scout.com/2/684834.html?refid=400

1. Predict the lower number, Baylor rushing attempts or A&M passing attempts.
If I'm Guy Morriss, I might give the Baylor running backs the weekend off. With the Aggies' struggles against the passing game this year, I would throw, throw, throw. Also, not many teams have had much success on the ground (at least not against the first team) against A&M as well. At the same time, Baylor's pass defense hasn't exactly been all-Big 12 either, so I think the Aggies will throw the ball more than usual.

2. A&M had trouble running the ball against Miami which was a surprise to me. Was that due to Miami's execution or A&M's lack thereof?
A&M has a speedy back in Mike Goodson, but that speed was neutralized by the speed of Miami defenders. They were able to take away the corner from Goodson and McGee, and apparently the defensive ends were sitting on Jorvorskie Lane's dive play, which took him out of the game. I think the Aggies will run the ball extremely successfully against teams unless they have a speedy, athletic defense like Cal or Miami.

3. Last year against Baylor, Martellus Bennett (Soph) and Goodson (fr) had breakout performances against Baylor that changed the game. Are there any frosh on either side of the ball that could have the same impact?
The true freshman who will make the biggest impact is Billy Chavis. That kid is going to be a special player in the A&M secondary for a while, but I'm not sure that he will have any breakout performance like Goodson did last year. With the number of veterans on this year's team (on both sides of the ball), the young guys aren't seeing as much action as they have in the last two or three years. There is a lot of young talent on this squad, but there are also a lot of veterans who are dominating the two-deep.

4.Is there a general consensus among A&M fans as to whether McGee should remain the starting QB? (note: I have noted some fans seem to be calling for the backup)
I think there are some fans who are screaming for Johnson, but coaches say he's just not ready yet and they don't want to throw him into the fire. McGee is the heart and soul of this team, and benching him would do a lot more harm than good. Besides, McGee just runs the game plan for the Aggies. Could he go deep a little more often, probably, but he has gotten the job done more often than not (12-4 regular season record as a starter) and most fans who are knowledgeable about the game understand that he's not going anywhere.

5.As an alternative, do you have a personal opinion as to whether McGee should remain the starting QB?
I think he should remain the starting quarterback, but I would like to see Jerrod Johnson get in on some plays to mix things up a bit and give defenses one more thing to have to prepare for. It would also give him some additional experience in the event A&M needs him due to injury.

6.What will Fran have to do this week to take the pressure off?
Fran needs a win--a big win. He needs to throttle Baylor, but even that won't take the pressure off. He needs to get through Baylor and Oklahoma State and then somehow pull off a win in Lubbock for the first time since 1993.

7.Who is your top freshman?
Billy Chavis - 6-foot-5 safety who is extremely talented. He's going to be a force in the Big 12 in another year or two.

8.Which senior will the Aggies most miss next year?
Chris Harrington - He's a consistent force on the defensive line and seems to be the only player who can consistently cause problems for opponents in the backfield.

9.What Baylor players on the offensive side of the ball are the Aggies most concerned about?
I'd have to say Szymanski, but moreso because of the position than name. That's not a shot at Blake, just a fact that A&M has had severe problems stopping the passing attack from anyone so far this year, and made a struggling Kyle Wright look like a Heisman candidate last week. Szymanski is on a bit of a roll right now, and if he can keep that momentum going on Saturday, it could make things interesting for the Aggies.

10.Do you expect the aggie offense to try to go more to the air in this game?
Yes. The coaching staff mentioned Baylor's lack of pass defense (No. 93 in the nation) and said that A&M will have to exploit that. We'll have to see.

BONUS QUESTION
11. A&M's pass defense has been lacking again this season...are you confident in the aggies' ability to limit the bears' air attack based on superior line play and getting after Szymanski?
I'm not confident in the Aggies' ability to stop many people at all in the passing attack. Szymanski probably has a little something to prove this week as well, and Baylor just doesn't like A&M, so they'll be fired up to make a statement, I'm sure. The Aggies will have to bounce back from the tough loss at Miami and be ready to play this weekend, or Baylor could put a nail in the coffin of the Franchione era at Texas A&M. I feel a lot more comfortable with Baylor +17 than A&M -17.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree. I also am hoping that TAMU wins so that I can get a good number for Oklahoma St next week. Unless TAMU develops a new ability on offense (BWAAAHAAAAHAAA), Okie St should win that one, but with history and irrational favor that bookmakers have given the Aggies, I'm guessing they'll be significantly favored again.

At any rate, I reeeeally want to play Baylor in this one, but +16.5 strikes me as a better option than the ML. Especially because 6:1 seems awful damned cheap-ass to me.
 
Aztec4Life said:
red - Ohio is up to +3, and +130 ML (at home against Kent St). Enough value to pull the trigger? This will be Kent's 4th road game this season, and their second straight.

With you on tOSU and Cal ML. GL bro! :cheers:
Click to expand...

no. Not for me. I think Kent St is a better team than Ohio, and as much fun as it is to fade Dr Bob and be right...it sucks to lose, and +130 isn't enough for me here. I usually don't bother with less than 150...

:cheers:
 
Michigan St +270

In week 1, Wisky allowed 157 yards on the ground to Washington St on just 32 rushes. That's 4.9ypc.

In week 2 at UNLV, Wisky won 20-13. they did stifle the rebels runnin', but they didn't really dominate that game at all. In fact, Wisky didn't even record a sack against this pass-happy offense until the final drive.

In week 3 hosting Citadel, Wisky gave up 123 rushing yards on 36 rushes for 3.4ypc. Citadel also passed pretty well on them for 254 yards for 7.3yards per attempt. This isn't the sort of defensive performance one would expect out of the class of the Big10.

in week 4 against Iowa, Wisky clamped down defensively...allowing 56 yards on 26 rushes for 2.3ypc. The hawkeyes only managed 169 yards passing, too...for 4.6 yards per attempt.

So what's different?

Well, consider Iowa. They beat N. Illinois 16-3. N Illinois. .......NIU is reeeeally bad this year. They beat Syracuse pretty soundly, but when they faced Iowa St they only managed 115 yards on 34 carries. That's 3.4ypc...against Iowa St. ISU even lost a fumble, and they still won the game.

So my suggestion is that perhaps Iowa isn't quite as good as we would all like to think, and the fact that wisconsin came back and scored a TD late to defeat Iowa is a tedious issue for wisky...and it's not a great sign for them.

I'm liking michigan st more and more...and I'm playing it.
 
UNC?

I just hopped on

UNC +18.5 110 to win 100
UNC ML 129 to win 1117

VA tech just doesnt seem like they should be a team to be afraid of offensively and UNC has shown some life on defense as well from the games I have seen. Tyrod Taylor is a true frosh and hasnt shown much. Tech has been losing a game where they are favored pretty high the past few years, Check GA Tech last year when they won SU in blacksburg.
 
A good write-up from one of the FSU Sites. I don't like the ending/prediction. For those who want to play the game:


This weekend's River City Showdown involves two of college football's most storied programs. While neither team is a probable national title contender this year, there will be a lot at stake when Bobby Bowden's Seminoles take on the Nick Saban led Crimson Tide. The 'Noles are looking for a respectable win in hopes of getting a program, that has been very average the past few years, back on track. Meanwhile, Alabama is coming off a tough overtime loss to Georgia and is hoping to avoid a second straight loss.

In addition to the importance of the outcome for both programs, there is some added incentive on both sides due to several personal ties. In addition to Bobby Bowden growing up in Birmingham cheering for the Crimson Tide, Alabama assistant coaches Kevin Steele and Kirby Smart have both worked for Bowden at Florida State, while Seminole offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher and wide receivers coach Lawrence Dawsey worked for Nick Saban at LSU.

"I think it will be a very interesting football game," head coach Bobby Bowden said. "Two teams with great tradition that haven't played each other in many, many years. You can just tell by the reaction of the tickets that are sold it's really a popular game."

Whether Bobby Bowden will get bragging rights over his childhood favorite team will depend largely on five keys as follows:

[SIZE=+1]5. Rattle John Parker Wilson[/SIZE]

Like Florida State's Drew Weatherford, Alabama's John Parker Wilson isn't the best at handling a strong pass rush. While that could give the Seminole defense a chance to throw off 'Bama's passing and possibly create some turnovers, they will have to do so against a quality offensive line. in order to make it happen on any kind of consistent basis, FSU will have to blitz linebackers and defensive backs. That sounds good in theory but it will leave the Seminole defense vulnerable to screens, draws and quick pass plays.

Will it happen? Unless FSU blitzes more often than not, it won't happen. So far, FSU's pass rush has been pretty average and they will be matched up against the best OL they've seen all season.

[SIZE=+1]4. Win field position[/SIZE]

This is a game where the defenses should have the advantage and where the score will probably stay close. If that's the case, then field position will be a huge key. Through the first three games punter Graham Gano, has been outstanding averaging 42.2 a punt. Meanwhile, Alabama's P.J. Fitzgerald is averaging just 38.8 yards a punt. Both Alabama and FSU have excellent punt returners so that could be a push for both teams. For the Seminoles, sophomore Preston Parker leads the ACC in punt returns at about 14 yards per return.

While FSU should have an advantage in the punting game, if the offense continues its trend of going three-and-out that won't help field position. Of course, turnovers could also play a huge rule in helping one team get the upper hand in this department.

Will it happen? As long as the offense can stay away from too many three-and-outs and turnovers, the 'Noles should get the best of the field position battle.

[SIZE=+1]3. Defense must keep the score under 20[/SIZE]

In regulation play, Alabama scored 20 points against Georgia's defense. Florida State's defense, led by long-time coordinator Mickey Andrews, is probably pretty comparable to the Bulldogs so it's reasonable to assume that Alabama will score somewhere in the 20 point range.

On the other side, FSU's offense has struggled and managed only 16 points against a mediocre Colorado defense in its last game. So if 'Bama's offense can roll the score to the upper 20's or 30's it would be an uphill battle for the Seminole offense to match that. As such, if FSU's defense can keep the score down into the teens, it should dramatically increase the chance of victory.

Will it happen? 50/50. Based on what happened in the first three games, this should be a very even matchup. What could hurt FSU is the loss of defensive tackle Budd Thacker and having Andre Fluellen at less than 100 percent. Not having starting weakside linebacker Geno Hayes in the game for an undetermined period of time could also hurt FSU's run defense.

[SIZE=+1]2. Weatherford must have a good outing[/SIZE]

While the running game has shown a few signs of life, the passing game led by Drew Weatherford has been out of sync all season. With the talent at wide receiver, it's disappointing that the Seminole passing game is ranked 89th nationally. While Weatherford has struggled at times, the fault for the passing woes should also be shared with an offensive line that has done a poor job blocking and a wide receivers unit that has dropped too many passes.

If Weatherford and the rest of the offense don't start clicking a little this weekend, you have to think the coaching staff will have no choice to to make some personnel changes.

Will it happen? The odds say no. You have to hope that the players have been in Jimbo Fisher's system long enough for things to start clicking but so far it hasn't happened.

[SIZE=+1]1. Limit mistakes: Turnovers & penalties[/SIZE]

Florida State has been pretty good protecting the football (+.33 rating) but have done a poor job with penalties. Weatherford and Xavier Lee, if he plays, must make good decisions with the football but the bigger problem has been penalties. Through the first three games, the 'Noles' rank dead last in the ACC with an average of 10 penalties a game for 87.3 yards. With a struggling offense, FSU simply can't afford to have double digit penalties against Alabama.

Alabama has done a little better in turnover margin (+.75) and a lot better on penalties averaging just 5.5 for 46 yards a game.

Of course, missed assignment and missed tackles also fall into this category. While the Seminole defense has made nice strides cutting down on missed tackles, the missed assignments on offense have been numerous.

Will it happen? Again it doesn't seem likely. One reason why Alabama has fielded a quality team in the early going is that they don't shoot themselves in the foot. On the other hand, FSU has been tripping over its own feet.

[SIZE=+1]Score prediction[/SIZE]

With Alabama playing two straight emotionally draining games and with FSU having an extra week to prepare, the 'Noles should be in prime position to pull out a victory. But so far this season, 'Bama has been a more cohesive team that will not beat themselves. Unless FSU's offense wakes up from its slumber, it's hard to see them scoring enough points to win the game. Alabama 20, FSU 17
 
AgainstThePublic said:
wish I wouldve been around to save you from your 2nd half bet usf 2nd half was money
Click to expand...

you wouldn't have. I had planned on taking that bet since early week, and given the same set of circumstances next week, I would bet it again. If WVU gets a TD instead of a FG in the 2H, then I cover. If WVU makes a key play on the 4th down with 1 minute left, perhaps I cover there anyway. Turnovers aside, consider the box score:

WVU: 21 fds to SFU's 13
WVU: 459 total yards to SFU's 276
WVU: 4.6yp carry to SFU's 3.7

and then turnovers, 6-4...that shit was insane and inane.

I don't regret plays based on winning or losing. I regret plays when I let the emotional tide direct my choice, and this time I did not. I made this play because I thought it was a good play, and I still think it was. It simply lost this time. I didn't even need WVU to win the game. I just needed 1 more TD than SFU in the 2H, and the game played out pretty much like I thought. WVU just didn't get it into the EZ that last time...due to offensive errors and not so much due to an overwhelming SFU defense.

as an aside...

you're getting somewhat close to, "I toldya so"...or rather, "I woulda toldya so". I don't really think that's your point, but it would be best to not put a post like what you put above in any other threads. Folks in a bad mood might take it as gloating. I don't, but then again I'm in a pretty damned good mood for having just lost a wager.

:shake:

lkk66, I'm not a fan of UNC right now. GL with your wager, but I think you'll need a lot of luck tomorrow for it to cash.

JimmyHoffa, thanks for the info. As of now I'm not playing that game. If I could get a higher ML dog number, I would play it, but it's just not going to get high enough for me to bother.
 
Now That I See What I Posyed I Really Dont See What Is Wrong With It. I Usually Dont Start Shit And I Really Dont Think I Did. Just Want An Explanation As To What People Saw. That Is All. I Respect You And This Site Redbearde. I Am Drunk Too With Is Great As Well.
 
it's cool bro. Sleep it off.

I think Grothe is a great decision-maker. I think the defense is fast and contains fast running games, even the spread offense, pretty damned well. The safeties especially rotate well to cover the QB hole in the option.

I think West Virginia made too damned many mistakes in that game to warrant a #5 ranking, yet the Bulls made almost as many. I think against a team like Oklahomo, the Bulls are going to have a tougher time stopping the run (not that they did today) - the D linemen won't be able to hold up against the power of the Oklahomo O-line. The secondary will get a lot of tackles that day. And don't expect the sort of throwing mistakes out of the Sooners' QB that the Bulls prospered with today. A pick 6 AND a pick in the EZ...those were game changing events.

USF will get respect now...at least until they lose a game, and I do think they will lose a couple or three this year. Rutgers, Cincinnati, and Louisville all have more than a good shot at a win. Yet SF gets to play the bearcats and cards at home - and if the Bulls are a dog to Cinci, you can expect my ass to be playing the Bulls ML...

:shake:
 
Bro... Seriously I Love What You Bring To This Site And You Are Funny As Hell But Usf Dominated From Start To Finish That Game. I Seriously Am Not Trying To Be An Ass Because I Am Not That Way But Usf Dominated That Whole Game. Again I Am Not Trying To Be An Ass.
 
redbearde said:
it's cool bro. Sleep it off.

I think Grothe is a great decision-maker. I think the defense is fast and contains fast running games, even the spread offense, pretty damned well. The safeties especially rotate well to cover the QB hole in the option.

I think West Virginia made too damned many mistakes in that game to warrant a #5 ranking, yet the Bulls made almost as many. I think against a team like Oklahomo, the Bulls are going to have a tougher time stopping the run (not that they did today) - the D linemen won't be able to hold up against the power of the Oklahomo O-line. The secondary will get a lot of tackles that day. And don't expect the sort of throwing mistakes out of the Sooners' QB that the Bulls prospered with today. A pick 6 AND a pick in the EZ...those were game changing events.

USF will get respect now...at least until they lose a game, and I do think they will lose a couple or three this year. Rutgers, Cincinnati, and Louisville all have more than a good shot at a win. Yet SF gets to play the bearcats and cards at home - and if the Bulls are a dog to Cinci, you can expect my ass to be playing the Bulls ML...

:shake:
Click to expand...

AGREE MAN. STILL A LONG WAY TO GO FOR MY BULLS. NOT TRYING TO STIR SHIT BUT I SERIOUSLY HAD A HARD ON FOR USF WINNING TONIGHT. GL TOMORROW.
 
AgainstThePublic said:
Now That I See What I Posyed I Really Dont See What Is Wrong With It. I Usually Dont Start Shit And I Really Dont Think I Did. Just Want An Explanation As To What People Saw. That Is All. I Respect You And This Site Redbearde. I Am Drunk Too With Is Great As Well.
Click to expand...

It isn't just about starting shit. It's about other people thinking you're trying to start shit...or it can be about other people who are more drunk than you taking what you write the wrong way. All of these things I want to avoid...

also...

when people say,

"I don't want to interrupt"...then they're interrupting.

or

"I don't want to be a dick about it"....they're about to be a dick about it.

so when you say,

"I don't want to start any shit".....well......it screams to me you're about to start some shit. And then you went on with "stop whining - you lost"..and "WVU=fraud"....good substantial conversation it was not. It was only going to piss someone off, and that's the sort of shit I can read on covers: gloating and "I toldya so". That's why I locked your thread. No big deal.

Get some sleep bro. It's a good long day tomorrow.
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" width="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">gl buddy
</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
ML dogs:
Southern Miss +350 - L
Air Force +125 - L
UNLV +150 - L
Florida International +400 - L
Akron +475 - L
Temple +200 - L
Colorado St +370 - L
California +216 - W
ECU +430 - W
Michigan St +270 - L

Spreads:
Cincinnati -14 (-110) - W
Ohio State -22.5 (-110) - W
Arkansas St -3.5 (-110) - W
BYU -5.5 (+101) - W
Troy -12.5 (-103) - W
Buffalo +16.5 (-110) - L
Louisville -8 (-107) - W
Baylor +16.5 (-101) - L
WVU 2H -5.5 (-125) - L

bad ML day. very bad. Temple couldn't get out of their own way. Mich St & UNLV blew it in the last minute, and ECU benefitted from TWO 4th Q missed FGs. Good thing I got some early lines on spreads...

ML dogs: 2-8, -1.54
Spreads: 6-3, +2.65

rough way to make a little...but at least I'm up a smidge.
 
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