Hey Red, Just so you know i love the posts keep talking shit .I fucking literally laugh My ass off on some of the shit you come up with!!!!!!!(not your picks) I wish i could type better and have more time to do so .Hopefully when i do type ya kinda follow where im going in my (small write ups) I do type crazy ass shit but hey dont we all!.I spend hours most weeks going over whos gonna get upset! Period. sides ova unda not really my thing, But i have posted ncaa this yr and ive done very good ! I read everybodies posts here but i look for yours first to see if were on same page ,And 8 outta 10 we are.I got ass kicked last week 2 ML both lost ORE ST and NMST both leading @half ,I like finding them upset specials .If my whole post here is a long sentence to you or anyone thats cool doesnt mean i am clueless bcause im not just suck at comp .But for right now Red just got back home from Tavern had 5 coldies and gonna do some homework BOL Red Keep us INFORMED!!!!!! Thanks Bro
CFB ML Dogs week 5
- Thread starter redbearde
- Start date
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Goop, thanks for the post. I remember reading in the in-game last week when you were talking about playing against Christensen. There's no doubt in my mind that he's an accurate thrower - certainly no Juice Williams (I watched that game too).
regarding the Indiana pass defense...as bad as some of those throws were, and as pathetic as the pass game for Illinois looked, Juice *still* managed to throw 13 for 28, 98 yards, get 7 passing first downs, and throw for 2TDs. That says, "bad pass defense" to me. I realize they got 2 ints, but they were gifts served up by Juice, as I recall....it wasn't like the DB jumped a route and made a great play or the WR didn't run out his route. Juice just has all the accuracy of Shaq from the foul line.
I can see that game go in all sorts of ways, but I think Iowa is very likely to win...likely enough to not warrant a play on Illinois. Hell, Indiana kept putting the ball on the ground. over and over and over last week. Illinois didn't force turnovers as much as the Hoosiers turned into Joe Fumblethumbs.
I could see supporting a play on the points with Illinois, but I would be relying on Juice to leg out the plays instead of passing through the iowa D. Because if he tries that, he's going to chuck 3 or 4 picks and Iowa will bust them up.
...or I could be completely wrong.
:shake:
regarding the Indiana pass defense...as bad as some of those throws were, and as pathetic as the pass game for Illinois looked, Juice *still* managed to throw 13 for 28, 98 yards, get 7 passing first downs, and throw for 2TDs. That says, "bad pass defense" to me. I realize they got 2 ints, but they were gifts served up by Juice, as I recall....it wasn't like the DB jumped a route and made a great play or the WR didn't run out his route. Juice just has all the accuracy of Shaq from the foul line.
I can see that game go in all sorts of ways, but I think Iowa is very likely to win...likely enough to not warrant a play on Illinois. Hell, Indiana kept putting the ball on the ground. over and over and over last week. Illinois didn't force turnovers as much as the Hoosiers turned into Joe Fumblethumbs.
I could see supporting a play on the points with Illinois, but I would be relying on Juice to leg out the plays instead of passing through the iowa D. Because if he tries that, he's going to chuck 3 or 4 picks and Iowa will bust them up.
...or I could be completely wrong.
:shake:
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
moneydog, that was indeed one helluva sentence. I received my degree in secondary english education. ...and I'm not so sure what I'd do with that sentence. heh.
I had Oregon St too...kinda saw the loss coming from afar when we were up 19-0. when I saw the beavers had scored 26, I thought that might be enough to hold on...alas no.
best of luck this week!
I had Oregon St too...kinda saw the loss coming from afar when we were up 19-0. when I saw the beavers had scored 26, I thought that might be enough to hold on...alas no.
best of luck this week!
LOL Im hyperventilating !!! im gonna look at my games and ill ask ya what ya think .I do think CSU wins outright IMO .But i got to get back to looking ,I do like some of your picks leaning almost falling into them
Goopster24
Pretty much a regular
IU plays Iowa, not ILL.
Goopster24
Pretty much a regular
And what about the Iowa defense, any word on that anyone? Like I said earlier, their defense didn't do amazing against a predictable offense in Wisconsin last week. IU has that same offense, only with Lewis, sorta.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
:36_11_6:
that's what I get for not getting any sleep last night. either team goop. that game wasn't really on my radar screen as a possibility.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
you'll have to explain that one to me...I thought wisconsin had a get-in-the-I, pound the ball through the lines, and then set up for a possession pass...and occasionally take a shot down the field sort of offense.
..while Indiana has the spread offense surrounding Lewis.
doesn't seem terribly similar...
Have I missed something?
Goopster24
Pretty much a regular
I mean predictable in the sense that Lewis runs a lot. Their spread offense is tough to account for I guess. I am also going to look at this game too, not sure if it is a play or not.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
Ahhh, fuck me it's down to +350...?
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Florida International +400
Matador already hit FLint, so I figured I would too while the gettin's good.
Apparently they are on their second string QB, too...True Frosh Dwight Dasher will likely start instead of Craddock. That's a significant drop in talent level. Both these teams are on long losing streaks....
interesting,
this is a pretty informative article:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/sunbelt/mtenn.htm
Matador already hit FLint, so I figured I would too while the gettin's good.
Apparently they are on their second string QB, too...True Frosh Dwight Dasher will likely start instead of Craddock. That's a significant drop in talent level. Both these teams are on long losing streaks....
interesting,
this is a pretty informative article:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/sunbelt/mtenn.htm
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Still giving strong thought to
Akron 425
Temple 200
Colorado St 370
Baylor 600 (I want more like 1000...not sure I'll get it, but I certainly deserve it and the win after that Fresno St shit)
Buffalo 600 again, I want 10:1...might play it even as cheap as 750, and that's not asking too much for this number - still may not get it
N. Texas +8000 I know it's insane, but I think Arky might just have a shitload of trouble defending this passing offense. Let me put it this way. LSU is -40ish to Tulane. Is Arkansas really about that much better than NT? I don't think so, and Arky has a soft secondary...
Akron 425
Temple 200
Colorado St 370
Baylor 600 (I want more like 1000...not sure I'll get it, but I certainly deserve it and the win after that Fresno St shit)
Buffalo 600 again, I want 10:1...might play it even as cheap as 750, and that's not asking too much for this number - still may not get it
N. Texas +8000 I know it's insane, but I think Arky might just have a shitload of trouble defending this passing offense. Let me put it this way. LSU is -40ish to Tulane. Is Arkansas really about that much better than NT? I don't think so, and Arky has a soft secondary...
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
thanks for the heads up. Found this article.
http://www.klkntv.com/Global/story.asp?S=7122729&nav=menu96_4
this article, word for word, is all over the place...
http://www.klkntv.com/Global/story.asp?S=7122729&nav=menu96_4
this article, word for word, is all over the place...
ClevelandsBest
Pretty much a regular
That article comes from Foxsports.com. FWIW They update it each week for every team. I think the info can be very helpful
lines you can get right now:
Akron +475 (betcris)
Mich St +265 (expekt), +260 (greek, pinnacle, 5dimes)
Col St +410 (expekt)
baylor +650 (betcris)
N Texas +8000 (5dimes)
GL
macdamn
Pretty much a regular
Wow, I may just have to jump on Buffalo now instead of waiting.
Hey red, any chance Dr. Bob will be on Baylor? I'm trying to figure out if I should put it in now or wait. 'an_horse'
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
I have no idea about DrBob. I will tell you this, though, he more often fucks over my lines than he does help. Last week he helped me on a few (especially the Cal chalk), but don't for a second think any line is immune. I couldn't believe some of his stupid-ass choices last week...but hey, I want more than 6:1 on baylor and buffalo. I have the spread play on Buff and may leave it at that.
Temple dropped on me at 5dimes overnight. fuck. was 200...now it's 185.
well, still 200 at bookmaker. I guess I'll get it there. hurray for book-to-book transfers...
and Akron is at 475 there...thanks for the heads up Burdo
pags, GL to you, too, bro.
ClevelandsBest, thanks man. I'll check FS.com.
ChipsT, yeah, Navy normally couldn't stop a brain dead orangutan performing fellatio from scoring...well see how they do during the service academy meeting. Those are always games unto themselves, and if they perform at all, it'll be this week. Y'know? Still, I think Air Force is a solid play.
Temple dropped on me at 5dimes overnight. fuck. was 200...now it's 185.
well, still 200 at bookmaker. I guess I'll get it there. hurray for book-to-book transfers...
and Akron is at 475 there...thanks for the heads up Burdo
pags, GL to you, too, bro.
ClevelandsBest, thanks man. I'll check FS.com.
ChipsT, yeah, Navy normally couldn't stop a brain dead orangutan performing fellatio from scoring...well see how they do during the service academy meeting. Those are always games unto themselves, and if they perform at all, it'll be this week. Y'know? Still, I think Air Force is a solid play.
texasfight
Karl Marx sucks balls
Here's your money line dog of the week. It's my favorite play on the board. I've been following this TCU steroid scandal that has cost them a starting DT and now Tommie Blake. They're all off the juice now which explains their lackluster play the last two weeks. My writeup:
**Colorado State +11 @ TCU. 2 units** <!--EZCODE BOLD END-->The dreams of this TCU football team were dashed 3 weeks ago when the Longhorns took them behind the woodshed outscoring the Frogs 31 to 3 in the second half. Most programs could accept the loss and get on with the season. Not TCU. You see, when your team is made up of players with the collective mentality of a professional wrestler, you don't take losing well. Hell, you don't take anything well. The Horned Frogs are done, folks, illustrated by their ugly loss to Air Force on the road, and ugly win at home to SMU. The Mustangs outgained TCU 350 to 250. That's right, TCU had 250 yards total offense against the Ponies.
If that's not enough to shrink your testicles, down a bottle of propecia, and send you into a roid rage, then consider you lost your best player and human growth hormone experiment Tommie Blake to an undisclosed medical condition. Amino acids just don't cut it I suppose.
In Colorado State we get a team that has played a brutal schedule of Colorado, Cal, and UH tough and close. Expect them to hang around with TCU waiting for the Frogs to open up a huge can of quit. Which they will. CSU gets its first win 24 to 21.
<!--EZCODE BOLD START-->
**Colorado State +11 @ TCU. 2 units** <!--EZCODE BOLD END-->The dreams of this TCU football team were dashed 3 weeks ago when the Longhorns took them behind the woodshed outscoring the Frogs 31 to 3 in the second half. Most programs could accept the loss and get on with the season. Not TCU. You see, when your team is made up of players with the collective mentality of a professional wrestler, you don't take losing well. Hell, you don't take anything well. The Horned Frogs are done, folks, illustrated by their ugly loss to Air Force on the road, and ugly win at home to SMU. The Mustangs outgained TCU 350 to 250. That's right, TCU had 250 yards total offense against the Ponies.
If that's not enough to shrink your testicles, down a bottle of propecia, and send you into a roid rage, then consider you lost your best player and human growth hormone experiment Tommie Blake to an undisclosed medical condition. Amino acids just don't cut it I suppose.
In Colorado State we get a team that has played a brutal schedule of Colorado, Cal, and UH tough and close. Expect them to hang around with TCU waiting for the Frogs to open up a huge can of quit. Which they will. CSU gets its first win 24 to 21.
<!--EZCODE BOLD START-->
JimmyHoffa
Pretty much a regular
FSU v. Alabama Insight:
Red,
I think you said you were laying off the game, but here is an objective look at the game...if anyone who reads your thread is still thinking about posting a play.
<TABLE cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=2 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>1. Since he took over as the starter, Drew Weatherford hasn't had much success against ranked teams. Can he finally step up versus Alabama?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>1. Can John Parker Wilson find more consistency in the passing game? </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: With his leadership abilities, work ethic and smarts, Weatherford is the type of quarterback you would expect to shine in big games, but that hasn't happened. Time and time again he has struggled, especially against better teams. While he has done a better job cutting down on turnovers, he simply hasn't been able to move the Seminole offense down the field consistently. A below average offensive line and an underachieving wide receiver unit have contributed to his struggles, but the Land O'Lakes native hasn't found a way to work around the offense's shortcomings and get points on the board - FSU is 86th in scoring offense.
This weekend's game could be the final chance for the redshirt junior. While not directly pointing the finger at Weatherford, offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher has made it clear that his patience is running thin and that some changes could be coming soon. While his back may be up against a wall, this could be a game where Weatherford has a strong outing. While Alabama fields an above average defense, they haven't exactly terrorized quarterbacks ranking 103rd nationally in sacks. Weatherford's biggest weakness has been inability to avoid the rush and get rid of the ball quickly. If 'Bama gives Weatherford time to set up in the pocket and look for his receivers, he will post some respectable numbers and move the offense. That could be just enough to give the Seminole offense the push it needs to win this game.
</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: Wilson's 17-of-35, 185-yard performance against Georgia wasn't terrible by any means, but although the junior starter didn't make any game-killing mistakes he missed out on a number of possibilities for big plays that could have made the difference in the Tide's overtime loss to the Bulldogs.
While a few breakups in pass protection forced Wilson to make some throws under pressure, the Tide has done a good job overall giving the second-year starter time to make his throws allowing just 5 sacks so far this season, fewer than all but three teams in the SEC so far.
The key for Wilson will be settling down into the flow of his new offense, going through his progressions and trusting his athletic and physical wide receivers to make plays. Wilson's success, and the success of the Tide offense at large, will depend not on any drastic change in mechanics but rather a change in the attitude and confidence Wilson plays with.
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>2. How will Florida State's running game match up against Alabama's rush defense?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>2. Will the Tide running game find a way through the Seminole defensive front?</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: Florida State's running game has improved over last year's squad that finished 103rd nationally. Nevertheless, FSU's rushing attack probably won't strike fear in defenses with an average of a little over 130 yards a game. Despite average numbers, the 'Noles have an outstanding tailback in Antone Smith and a pretty good backup in Jamaal Edwards. The primary issue preventing the Seminole backs from flourishing has been substandard blocking up front. The lackluster play from the line doesn't come as a surprise since new OL coach Rick Trickett has totally revamped his unit complete with massive changes to the starting five. While all the changes are probably for the best, it is taking a while for the linemen to get on the same page and get comfortable with Trickett's system.
Alabama doesn't exactly have the best numbers against the run but those numbers are probably a little misleading. Arkansas, who has one of the best rushing teams in college football, posted over 300 yards on the ground. In the Tide's other three games they have been pretty good versus the run.
For FSU to be effective on the ground, the key could be the passing game. Most defenses have been crowding the line of scrimmage in order to make Weatherford throw the football, and it's likely that 'Bama will employ a similar strategy. If Weatherford can get on track with a few completions early to loosen up the defense, that would go a long way to opening things up for the running game. But again, that will require the offensive line to effectively pass block.
With Antone Smith getting on off-week to recover from his turf toe and the concussion he sustained in the UAB game, look for him to be a be a little sharper than he was at Colorado a couple weeks ago. To be effective on offense FSU must rush for at least 100 yards in this game, and if they can break 150, they would be in great shape.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: Moving the ball on the ground against the Seminoles could be among the Tide's toughest challenges this season as the stout Florida State defense is allowing just 74.7 rushing yards per game. Although both Clemson and UAB racked up over 100 yards rushing on the 'Noles, Colorado was held to a whopping -27 yards on the ground.
The Seminoles are as strong up the middle as any defense the Tide will face so expect to see plenty of outside runs, toss sweeps and screen passes to try and give speedy Terry Grant some room to make moves in the open field against Florida State's speedy defenders.
The performance of the Tide's offensive line will be key to moving the ball on the ground as big left tackle Andre Smith continues to wreck havoc downfield providing big blocks for the Tide backs to run behind. Center Antoine Caldwell and guards Marlon Davis and Justin Britt have elevated their games from a season ago and new offensive line coach Joe Pendry has done a lot to utilize the uncommon athleticism of his linemen in their run blocking schemes.
The Tide's versatility at running back could also be a factor in the game as Grant's speed is complimented by power backs Glen Coffee and Jimmy Johns who have each shown consistency running the ball between the tackles. The Tide have also seen Tallahassee native Roy Upchurch expand his role in recent weeks and the highly-touted runner gives Alabama yet another set of fresh legs to bring into the game when the going gets tough.
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>3. Will the Seminole front seven be able to shut down Alabama's ground game?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>3. Will the defensive line be able to put pressure on Drew Weatherford?</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: Nick Saban commented during his Monday press conference that Florida State will field the best rush defense they have seen all season. That wasn't just coach talk. Outside of the first half of the season opener at Clemson, when the whole Seminole team came out shell-shocked, the defense has surrendered just 95 total yards rushing over the past two and a half games.
A big reason for the 'Noles' stout run defense is a dominating interior defensive line. The foursome of Andre Fluellen, Budd Thacker, Letroy Guion and Paul Griffin freely rotate in and out during the game to keep each other fresh. The quartet usually has their way with opposing offensive lines making it extremely difficult to run between the tackles. As a result, backs are forced to the outside where FSU's speedy linebackers typically don't allow much running room. Where FSU's defense is sometimes vulnerable to the run is against well disguised misdirection, and that's probably the case more this year with the inexperience at linebacker.
While the Seminole defense is outstanding against the run, Terry Grant and a solid offensive line will make this matchup strength versus strength. It looked like starting weak-side linebacker Geno Hayes, who was arrested last weekend for an altercation outside of a local bar, would be suspended but Bobby Bowden announced late Tuesday that he will play this weekend. With Hayes in the lineup, the Seminole linebackers will be at full strength.
As good as as the Seminole defense is, it's unlikely they will totally shut down a solid Crimson Tide ground game. I'm sure the goal is to hold Alabama to under 100 yards rushing. If that doesn't happen, it could be a long day for the Seminoles. </TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: While the Florida State offensive line has already shown improvement in three games, their inexperience could level the playing field for the physically overmatched Tide defensive line.
Thus far, the Seminoles have given up 8 sacks, including 5 in the season opener against Clemson. With two new starters this season, the Crimson Tide front will have a pair of favorable matchups to focus on exploiting in an effort to put some pressure of quarterback Drew Weatherford. Senior defensive end Wallace Gilberry has yet to register a sack but finds himself in the backfield fairly often registering 3.5 tackles for loss while Lorenzo Washington leads a slew of freshmen at defensive tackle.
In Nick Saban and Kevin Steele's defense, outside linebackers often play with their hands down as extra defensive linemen with backers Ezekial Knight and Keith Saunders each playing key roles thus far on the defensive front. Both players struggle in matchups with offensive tackles but have the speed and athleticism to make plays in the backfield when they execute.
Meanwhile, Tide linemen have been less than impressive so far registering just 4 sacks in the first four games but have done a decent job of pressuring quarterbacks with 15 hurries so far this year. With depth growing at every position on the line as some of the newcomers see more playing time, that production could increase as the season goes on.
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>4. Will FSU be able to establish a pass rush?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>4. How does the Tide defense match up against Florida State's skill players?</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: While Florida State's defense has been pretty solid this season, and is coming off its best game, the one area of concern is the pass rush. Through three games the 'Noles have just five total sacks. While those are okay stats, the inability to consistently pressure the passer this season has allowed opposing offenses to make too many big plays through the air.
Alabama's John Parker Wilson is a solid and clutch signal-caller but is not extremely mobile and can be susceptible to a strong pass rush. But if FSU's defense can't get in his face it won't matter much and he will be able to find receivers in the secondary like the talented DJ Hall. Getting an effective pass rush may be a tall order against a very good Alabama offensive line. So in order to get the pressure they need, it wouldn't be surprising if defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews opted to blitz a little more. Of course, that will leave FSU vulnerable to well-timed draws and screens. As such, this game could become a chess match between Andrews and Tide OC Major Applewhite. </TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: While Alabama's passing defense has given up big plays in each game this season, they've held opponents to a respectable 180 passing yards per game.
The primary matchups to watch will be between Tide cornerbacks Simeon Castille and Lionel Mitchell against leading Seminole receiver Greg Carr who has been a reliable target in each of FSU's two most recent games. De'Cody I love sex has also shown big play ability at times as well as sophomore Preston Parker, giving the Seminoles a multiple threat passing attack that will require strong performances from the Tide safeties to contain.
Tide safety Rashad Johnson has done a good job of putting himself in position to make plays on the ball this season and will likely play a key role for the Tide secondary in limiting the athletic Seminole receiving corps.
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>5. Can FSU continue to win the special teams battle?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>5. Will Javier Arenas be the "x-factor" for the Tide?</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: The biggest positive from FSU's first three games has been the play of the special teams. In fact, the 'Noles currently rank in the top half of the ACC rankings for all five special teams categories including a No. 1 ranking in punt returns and field goals. If this game plays out as expected, and it's a hard-fought close battle, then special teams could play a huge role.
Alabama boasts a explosive returner in Javier Arenas, while FSU has it's own secret weapon in Preston Parker, who leads the ACC in punt returns. At least statistically, FSU has been better in punting, kickoff returns, kickoff coverage and field goals. The 'Noles also have a knack for blocking kicks in a big contest like this. This is a matchup that FSU should win, and must win, if they hope to leave Jacksonville with a victory.
</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: Arenas ranks second in the SEC among punt returners this season averaging 15 yards per return with at least one big play in each of the Tide's first three games of the season.
Last week, however, directional kicks and specialized coverage schemes limited the sophomore's opportunities to contribute in the return game for the Tide. First year starting punter Graham Gano will likely kick away from Arenas as well this week meaning the Tide special teams will need to find ways to give the Florida native extra time to make plays in the return game. </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>6. What's the latest on injuries at Florida State?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>6. What's the latest on injuries at Alabama?</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: There are a couple key players that are still waiting to get the go ahead from team doctors. Interior defensive linemen Andre Fluellen (elbow) and Budd Thacker (toe) are both recovering from relatively minor injuries. Both were expected to play as of late last week but neither has improved as quickly as expected. If one or both can't go, FSU has a couple pretty good backups in Letroy Guion and Paul Griffin but the depth at that position will be dramatically impacted. Fullback Joe Surratt (fractured right fibula) and OL Dumaka Atkins (left knee injury) have been out all season and will miss this weekend. The only other injury of note is freshman linebacker Maurice Harris, who is out with a sprained knee. He wasn't seeing time at linebacker but was a contributor on the kickoff and punt cover teams.
</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: Starting weakside linebacker Darren Mustin missed last week's game recovering from a shoulder stinger and while his recovery is reportedly coming along, Nick Saban said Mustin is still questionable for Saturday. Aside from that, the Tide enters the River City Showdown in relatively good health.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Red,
I think you said you were laying off the game, but here is an objective look at the game...if anyone who reads your thread is still thinking about posting a play.
<TABLE cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=2 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>1. Since he took over as the starter, Drew Weatherford hasn't had much success against ranked teams. Can he finally step up versus Alabama?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>1. Can John Parker Wilson find more consistency in the passing game? </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: With his leadership abilities, work ethic and smarts, Weatherford is the type of quarterback you would expect to shine in big games, but that hasn't happened. Time and time again he has struggled, especially against better teams. While he has done a better job cutting down on turnovers, he simply hasn't been able to move the Seminole offense down the field consistently. A below average offensive line and an underachieving wide receiver unit have contributed to his struggles, but the Land O'Lakes native hasn't found a way to work around the offense's shortcomings and get points on the board - FSU is 86th in scoring offense.
This weekend's game could be the final chance for the redshirt junior. While not directly pointing the finger at Weatherford, offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher has made it clear that his patience is running thin and that some changes could be coming soon. While his back may be up against a wall, this could be a game where Weatherford has a strong outing. While Alabama fields an above average defense, they haven't exactly terrorized quarterbacks ranking 103rd nationally in sacks. Weatherford's biggest weakness has been inability to avoid the rush and get rid of the ball quickly. If 'Bama gives Weatherford time to set up in the pocket and look for his receivers, he will post some respectable numbers and move the offense. That could be just enough to give the Seminole offense the push it needs to win this game.
</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: Wilson's 17-of-35, 185-yard performance against Georgia wasn't terrible by any means, but although the junior starter didn't make any game-killing mistakes he missed out on a number of possibilities for big plays that could have made the difference in the Tide's overtime loss to the Bulldogs.
While a few breakups in pass protection forced Wilson to make some throws under pressure, the Tide has done a good job overall giving the second-year starter time to make his throws allowing just 5 sacks so far this season, fewer than all but three teams in the SEC so far.
The key for Wilson will be settling down into the flow of his new offense, going through his progressions and trusting his athletic and physical wide receivers to make plays. Wilson's success, and the success of the Tide offense at large, will depend not on any drastic change in mechanics but rather a change in the attitude and confidence Wilson plays with.
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>2. How will Florida State's running game match up against Alabama's rush defense?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>2. Will the Tide running game find a way through the Seminole defensive front?</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: Florida State's running game has improved over last year's squad that finished 103rd nationally. Nevertheless, FSU's rushing attack probably won't strike fear in defenses with an average of a little over 130 yards a game. Despite average numbers, the 'Noles have an outstanding tailback in Antone Smith and a pretty good backup in Jamaal Edwards. The primary issue preventing the Seminole backs from flourishing has been substandard blocking up front. The lackluster play from the line doesn't come as a surprise since new OL coach Rick Trickett has totally revamped his unit complete with massive changes to the starting five. While all the changes are probably for the best, it is taking a while for the linemen to get on the same page and get comfortable with Trickett's system.
Alabama doesn't exactly have the best numbers against the run but those numbers are probably a little misleading. Arkansas, who has one of the best rushing teams in college football, posted over 300 yards on the ground. In the Tide's other three games they have been pretty good versus the run.
For FSU to be effective on the ground, the key could be the passing game. Most defenses have been crowding the line of scrimmage in order to make Weatherford throw the football, and it's likely that 'Bama will employ a similar strategy. If Weatherford can get on track with a few completions early to loosen up the defense, that would go a long way to opening things up for the running game. But again, that will require the offensive line to effectively pass block.
With Antone Smith getting on off-week to recover from his turf toe and the concussion he sustained in the UAB game, look for him to be a be a little sharper than he was at Colorado a couple weeks ago. To be effective on offense FSU must rush for at least 100 yards in this game, and if they can break 150, they would be in great shape.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: Moving the ball on the ground against the Seminoles could be among the Tide's toughest challenges this season as the stout Florida State defense is allowing just 74.7 rushing yards per game. Although both Clemson and UAB racked up over 100 yards rushing on the 'Noles, Colorado was held to a whopping -27 yards on the ground.
The Seminoles are as strong up the middle as any defense the Tide will face so expect to see plenty of outside runs, toss sweeps and screen passes to try and give speedy Terry Grant some room to make moves in the open field against Florida State's speedy defenders.
The performance of the Tide's offensive line will be key to moving the ball on the ground as big left tackle Andre Smith continues to wreck havoc downfield providing big blocks for the Tide backs to run behind. Center Antoine Caldwell and guards Marlon Davis and Justin Britt have elevated their games from a season ago and new offensive line coach Joe Pendry has done a lot to utilize the uncommon athleticism of his linemen in their run blocking schemes.
The Tide's versatility at running back could also be a factor in the game as Grant's speed is complimented by power backs Glen Coffee and Jimmy Johns who have each shown consistency running the ball between the tackles. The Tide have also seen Tallahassee native Roy Upchurch expand his role in recent weeks and the highly-touted runner gives Alabama yet another set of fresh legs to bring into the game when the going gets tough.
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>3. Will the Seminole front seven be able to shut down Alabama's ground game?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>3. Will the defensive line be able to put pressure on Drew Weatherford?</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: Nick Saban commented during his Monday press conference that Florida State will field the best rush defense they have seen all season. That wasn't just coach talk. Outside of the first half of the season opener at Clemson, when the whole Seminole team came out shell-shocked, the defense has surrendered just 95 total yards rushing over the past two and a half games.
A big reason for the 'Noles' stout run defense is a dominating interior defensive line. The foursome of Andre Fluellen, Budd Thacker, Letroy Guion and Paul Griffin freely rotate in and out during the game to keep each other fresh. The quartet usually has their way with opposing offensive lines making it extremely difficult to run between the tackles. As a result, backs are forced to the outside where FSU's speedy linebackers typically don't allow much running room. Where FSU's defense is sometimes vulnerable to the run is against well disguised misdirection, and that's probably the case more this year with the inexperience at linebacker.
While the Seminole defense is outstanding against the run, Terry Grant and a solid offensive line will make this matchup strength versus strength. It looked like starting weak-side linebacker Geno Hayes, who was arrested last weekend for an altercation outside of a local bar, would be suspended but Bobby Bowden announced late Tuesday that he will play this weekend. With Hayes in the lineup, the Seminole linebackers will be at full strength.
As good as as the Seminole defense is, it's unlikely they will totally shut down a solid Crimson Tide ground game. I'm sure the goal is to hold Alabama to under 100 yards rushing. If that doesn't happen, it could be a long day for the Seminoles. </TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: While the Florida State offensive line has already shown improvement in three games, their inexperience could level the playing field for the physically overmatched Tide defensive line.
Thus far, the Seminoles have given up 8 sacks, including 5 in the season opener against Clemson. With two new starters this season, the Crimson Tide front will have a pair of favorable matchups to focus on exploiting in an effort to put some pressure of quarterback Drew Weatherford. Senior defensive end Wallace Gilberry has yet to register a sack but finds himself in the backfield fairly often registering 3.5 tackles for loss while Lorenzo Washington leads a slew of freshmen at defensive tackle.
In Nick Saban and Kevin Steele's defense, outside linebackers often play with their hands down as extra defensive linemen with backers Ezekial Knight and Keith Saunders each playing key roles thus far on the defensive front. Both players struggle in matchups with offensive tackles but have the speed and athleticism to make plays in the backfield when they execute.
Meanwhile, Tide linemen have been less than impressive so far registering just 4 sacks in the first four games but have done a decent job of pressuring quarterbacks with 15 hurries so far this year. With depth growing at every position on the line as some of the newcomers see more playing time, that production could increase as the season goes on.
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>4. Will FSU be able to establish a pass rush?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>4. How does the Tide defense match up against Florida State's skill players?</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: While Florida State's defense has been pretty solid this season, and is coming off its best game, the one area of concern is the pass rush. Through three games the 'Noles have just five total sacks. While those are okay stats, the inability to consistently pressure the passer this season has allowed opposing offenses to make too many big plays through the air.
Alabama's John Parker Wilson is a solid and clutch signal-caller but is not extremely mobile and can be susceptible to a strong pass rush. But if FSU's defense can't get in his face it won't matter much and he will be able to find receivers in the secondary like the talented DJ Hall. Getting an effective pass rush may be a tall order against a very good Alabama offensive line. So in order to get the pressure they need, it wouldn't be surprising if defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews opted to blitz a little more. Of course, that will leave FSU vulnerable to well-timed draws and screens. As such, this game could become a chess match between Andrews and Tide OC Major Applewhite. </TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: While Alabama's passing defense has given up big plays in each game this season, they've held opponents to a respectable 180 passing yards per game.
The primary matchups to watch will be between Tide cornerbacks Simeon Castille and Lionel Mitchell against leading Seminole receiver Greg Carr who has been a reliable target in each of FSU's two most recent games. De'Cody I love sex has also shown big play ability at times as well as sophomore Preston Parker, giving the Seminoles a multiple threat passing attack that will require strong performances from the Tide safeties to contain.
Tide safety Rashad Johnson has done a good job of putting himself in position to make plays on the ball this season and will likely play a key role for the Tide secondary in limiting the athletic Seminole receiving corps.
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>5. Can FSU continue to win the special teams battle?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>5. Will Javier Arenas be the "x-factor" for the Tide?</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: The biggest positive from FSU's first three games has been the play of the special teams. In fact, the 'Noles currently rank in the top half of the ACC rankings for all five special teams categories including a No. 1 ranking in punt returns and field goals. If this game plays out as expected, and it's a hard-fought close battle, then special teams could play a huge role.
Alabama boasts a explosive returner in Javier Arenas, while FSU has it's own secret weapon in Preston Parker, who leads the ACC in punt returns. At least statistically, FSU has been better in punting, kickoff returns, kickoff coverage and field goals. The 'Noles also have a knack for blocking kicks in a big contest like this. This is a matchup that FSU should win, and must win, if they hope to leave Jacksonville with a victory.
</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: Arenas ranks second in the SEC among punt returners this season averaging 15 yards per return with at least one big play in each of the Tide's first three games of the season.
Last week, however, directional kicks and specialized coverage schemes limited the sophomore's opportunities to contribute in the return game for the Tide. First year starting punter Graham Gano will likely kick away from Arenas as well this week meaning the Tide special teams will need to find ways to give the Florida native extra time to make plays in the return game. </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>6. What's the latest on injuries at Florida State?</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%" bgColor=#f8eeab>6. What's the latest on injuries at Alabama?</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Gene: There are a couple key players that are still waiting to get the go ahead from team doctors. Interior defensive linemen Andre Fluellen (elbow) and Budd Thacker (toe) are both recovering from relatively minor injuries. Both were expected to play as of late last week but neither has improved as quickly as expected. If one or both can't go, FSU has a couple pretty good backups in Letroy Guion and Paul Griffin but the depth at that position will be dramatically impacted. Fullback Joe Surratt (fractured right fibula) and OL Dumaka Atkins (left knee injury) have been out all season and will miss this weekend. The only other injury of note is freshman linebacker Maurice Harris, who is out with a sprained knee. He wasn't seeing time at linebacker but was a contributor on the kickoff and punt cover teams.
</TD><TD vAlign=top width="50%">Matt: Starting weakside linebacker Darren Mustin missed last week's game recovering from a shoulder stinger and while his recovery is reportedly coming along, Nick Saban said Mustin is still questionable for Saturday. Aside from that, the Tide enters the River City Showdown in relatively good health.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
texasfight, thanks for the insight...there seems to be an awful lot of votes of confidence for Colorado St. Let's see if they can get that first win for me...I have Colorado St +370.
JimmyHoffa, that's one helluvan analysis. Gotta read it all, and then maybe I'll play it. I'm off the game due to lack of value more than anything else...+110 is essentially a pk wager as opposed to a ML dog...
JimmyHoffa, that's one helluvan analysis. Gotta read it all, and then maybe I'll play it. I'm off the game due to lack of value more than anything else...+110 is essentially a pk wager as opposed to a ML dog...
AgainstThePublic
Master of the Pickle Tickle
Like Cal. Can't believe the line is 6.5 at some places.
Wolfpack17
Treasurer of Fondy Fanclub
good luck this weekend red
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
ML dogs:
Southern Miss +350 - L
Air Force +125
UNLV +150
Florida International +400
Akron +475
Temple +200
Colorado St +370
California +216
ECU +430
Michigan St +270
Spreads:
Cincinnati -14 (-110)
Ohio State -22.5 (-110)
Arkansas St -3.5 (-110) - W
BYU -5.5 (+101)
Troy -12.5 (-103)
Buffalo +16.5 (-110)
Louisville -8 (-107)
Baylor +16.5 (-101)
Southern Miss +350 - L
Air Force +125
UNLV +150
Florida International +400
Akron +475
Temple +200
Colorado St +370
California +216
ECU +430
Michigan St +270
Spreads:
Cincinnati -14 (-110)
Ohio State -22.5 (-110)
Arkansas St -3.5 (-110) - W
BYU -5.5 (+101)
Troy -12.5 (-103)
Buffalo +16.5 (-110)
Louisville -8 (-107)
Baylor +16.5 (-101)
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Today demonstrates why it's good to get the best of a line. Most guys push with arky st -4. I fucked around on matchbook and got -3.5 same juice.
too bad SMiss failed to defend the pass today...at all. alas.
in other news
I am SERIOUSLY considering playing Louisville. Upon seeing the opening line, I was too stunned to react properly. What blows me away is that some folks are actually considering playing NC State on the ML. Let me put it this way. I'm not sure NC State could be Notre Dame, Syracuse, or even Temple right now.
The defense is the strength, right? To say the least, the strength is not on offense. About the best thing my wife and I could say about last week against was that at least the defense wasn't marching th opposing offense down the field incessantly with offsides and unnecessary roughness penalties. Still, at the end of the 1H, Clemson tried a 51 yard FG. It missed. NCSU jumped offsides, though, so Clemson got another try from 46. And they got it.
I reiterate that next year perhaps we'll see some significant improvement in discipline, but it just isn't happening this year. Against a quality QB like brohm, this defense, especially the secondary, is going to get exposed as the joke that it is.
The offense...this offense might just make the Louisville defense look good. Anything under DD looks juicy as hell to me.
Then I see this over in RJ's thread:
http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2007/09/27/nc-state-reaches-8-knee-surgeries/
That's the EIGHTH knee surgery this year for the wolfpack...
then there's this analysis:
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/teamReport?categoryId=86044&type=InsideSlant
or this:
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/teamReport?categoryId=86044&type=NotesAndQuotes
Sure thing Tom. NCSU needs to score 35. That won't keep up with the 45 that your supposed defense is going to give up, and it's supremely optimistic to think your offense won't commit more turnovers than they will secure passing completions.
then this:
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/teamReport?categoryId=86044&type=StrategyAndPersonnel
Between Pressley being out and McCuller being essentially done (as far as we know), the NCSU lines are in deep fucking trouble.
I couldn't believe I got Clemson -6.5 last week, and I'm still stunned by this less than 10 shit this week.
Ask yourself.
If Louisville had scored one more TD each against Kentucky and Syracuse, where would this line be? 21?
More?
There's no doubt Louisville has tremendous issues on defense...especially against a damned good team like Kentucky, but neither Beck nor Evans is a particularly good passer, and one thing Louisville will do this week is rush those passers. If Beck really is healthy, then he might be able to run around a bit to keep himself alive. Evans? Forget it. He'll be squarshed like a melon.
someone talk me out of this one, because I can every reason to fade my alma mater and play it.
too bad SMiss failed to defend the pass today...at all. alas.
in other news
I am SERIOUSLY considering playing Louisville. Upon seeing the opening line, I was too stunned to react properly. What blows me away is that some folks are actually considering playing NC State on the ML. Let me put it this way. I'm not sure NC State could be Notre Dame, Syracuse, or even Temple right now.
The defense is the strength, right? To say the least, the strength is not on offense. About the best thing my wife and I could say about last week against was that at least the defense wasn't marching th opposing offense down the field incessantly with offsides and unnecessary roughness penalties. Still, at the end of the 1H, Clemson tried a 51 yard FG. It missed. NCSU jumped offsides, though, so Clemson got another try from 46. And they got it.
I reiterate that next year perhaps we'll see some significant improvement in discipline, but it just isn't happening this year. Against a quality QB like brohm, this defense, especially the secondary, is going to get exposed as the joke that it is.
The offense...this offense might just make the Louisville defense look good. Anything under DD looks juicy as hell to me.
Then I see this over in RJ's thread:
http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2007/09/27/nc-state-reaches-8-knee-surgeries/
That's the EIGHTH knee surgery this year for the wolfpack...
then there's this analysis:
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/teamReport?categoryId=86044&type=InsideSlant
or this:
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/teamReport?categoryId=86044&type=NotesAndQuotes
Sure thing Tom. NCSU needs to score 35. That won't keep up with the 45 that your supposed defense is going to give up, and it's supremely optimistic to think your offense won't commit more turnovers than they will secure passing completions.
then this:
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/teamReport?categoryId=86044&type=StrategyAndPersonnel
Between Pressley being out and McCuller being essentially done (as far as we know), the NCSU lines are in deep fucking trouble.
I couldn't believe I got Clemson -6.5 last week, and I'm still stunned by this less than 10 shit this week.
Ask yourself.
If Louisville had scored one more TD each against Kentucky and Syracuse, where would this line be? 21?
More?
There's no doubt Louisville has tremendous issues on defense...especially against a damned good team like Kentucky, but neither Beck nor Evans is a particularly good passer, and one thing Louisville will do this week is rush those passers. If Beck really is healthy, then he might be able to run around a bit to keep himself alive. Evans? Forget it. He'll be squarshed like a melon.
someone talk me out of this one, because I can every reason to fade my alma mater and play it.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
by the way. NC State and its vaunted defense has a grand total of 1(one) interception this year. It was against Boston College. Not to let the defense outperform them, the NCSU offense managed to throw 5(FIVE) interceptions in that game alone.
Clemson racked up 340 yards rushing and 268 yards passing.
BC picked up 231 yards rushing and 142 yards passing.
UCF's Kevin Smith rushed for a career-high 217 yards.
Wofford even managed 211 yards rushing and 142 yards passing.
and NCSU gave up more turnovers than their opponent in every damned game. Well...okay, wofford managed to lose 2 more fumbles than NCSU. The Terriers still OUTGAINED the wolfpack in total yards, and Beck threw for 50%...yeaaaah. GJ.
...........precisely when was this defense good?
Clemson racked up 340 yards rushing and 268 yards passing.
BC picked up 231 yards rushing and 142 yards passing.
UCF's Kevin Smith rushed for a career-high 217 yards.
Wofford even managed 211 yards rushing and 142 yards passing.
and NCSU gave up more turnovers than their opponent in every damned game. Well...okay, wofford managed to lose 2 more fumbles than NCSU. The Terriers still OUTGAINED the wolfpack in total yards, and Beck threw for 50%...yeaaaah. GJ.
...........precisely when was this defense good?
Wolfpack17
Treasurer of Fondy Fanclub
i definitely think you are looking at the right side on the ville. what is up with all the knee injuries??? ive never ever seen this many knee injuries on one team in one year. its ridiculous. anyways we are going to get beat by 17+.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Pags, I've watched New Mexico play. They made Arizona look like they were competitive. In fact, I had NM ML against Arizona. The difference is BYU can play some defense. The difference is BYU wouldn't lose to UTEP...and losing to a healthy UCLA squad is nothing to be ashamed of for this bunch. And Tulsa has one helluvan offense...key turnovers did them in that game...
Here's something for you:
This is the sort of thing I don't get.
My math model favors BYU by 7 points but the situation is strong enough to give up some line value and I’ll take New Mexico
Is he a numbers guy, or is he not a numbers guy? What the shit is this? "my numbers show BYU -7, but my horse sense tells me otherwise.........."
I posted that in the Dr Bob ingame after his choice yesterday. It blows my mind.
/snip
basically, I think BYU's defense is better than New Mexico's defense. Tuitama gave the zona win to New Mexico, and NMSU pretty much did the same thing. BYU won't do that.
It is the case that BYU's coach used to be the DC at New Mexico. BYU has won 4 straight, including last year's game 42-17...missing the 27pt cover by 2 points. Last time at Albuquerque in 2005, UNM pissed the game away while BYU picked it up, rinsed it off, and took it away from them as 7 point underdogs. BYU has won 13 of the last 14. Last year, New Mexico allowed 653 yards of offense to BYU.....and the defense started the year with 10 returning starters.
I understand revenge, but you've got to be capable before revenge comes into play.
I think BYU wins by somewhere between 10 and 14, and I think Dr Bob's numbers support my play....and I haven't got the foggiest idea what he's thinking with his New Mexico pick.
or I could be completely wrong.
Here's something for you:
Dr Bob said:
This is the sort of thing I don't get.
My math model favors BYU by 7 points but the situation is strong enough to give up some line value and I’ll take New Mexico
Is he a numbers guy, or is he not a numbers guy? What the shit is this? "my numbers show BYU -7, but my horse sense tells me otherwise.........."
I posted that in the Dr Bob ingame after his choice yesterday. It blows my mind.
/snip
basically, I think BYU's defense is better than New Mexico's defense. Tuitama gave the zona win to New Mexico, and NMSU pretty much did the same thing. BYU won't do that.
It is the case that BYU's coach used to be the DC at New Mexico. BYU has won 4 straight, including last year's game 42-17...missing the 27pt cover by 2 points. Last time at Albuquerque in 2005, UNM pissed the game away while BYU picked it up, rinsed it off, and took it away from them as 7 point underdogs. BYU has won 13 of the last 14. Last year, New Mexico allowed 653 yards of offense to BYU.....and the defense started the year with 10 returning starters.
I understand revenge, but you've got to be capable before revenge comes into play.
I think BYU wins by somewhere between 10 and 14, and I think Dr Bob's numbers support my play....and I haven't got the foggiest idea what he's thinking with his New Mexico pick.
or I could be completely wrong.
