CFB ML Dogs week 5

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 7-14, 33.3%, +3.8 units
Spreads: 18-15-1, 54.5%, +2.85 units

Last week went much better.

ML dogs: 3-3, +2.35 units
Spreads: 6-2-1, +3.85 units

By my count, 12 dogs won outright (14 if you count MTSU losing to West Kentucky & ND State beating Central Michigan), and the only one I really think I did myself a disservice on not playing is UNLV (syracuse woulda been incredibly ballsy). However, for every one that won that I considered playing, there were two or three that I considered playing which lost. So it's probably best that I left it where it was and went 3-3.

Conference play is getting on in earnest, and more and more ML dogs should be winning. There is much perceived disparity judging by opening lines this week. Remember as I'm looking at these that I'm guessing what the ML will be...until they come out at least. And I'm looking at them in terms of the team winning - not covering.

I know a lot of folks like to bet faves. Don't hesitate to play the big pointspreads. Conference teams know each other better, and just because the one team is better does not mean that one team is going to cover...for instance, Michigan might have looked better the last couple weeks, but Northwestern is coming in with a spread offense. Might we see another App St-like track-meet? Perhaps laying 17ish on the road with a questionable UM team.....even with Mike Hart carrying the load.....isn't the thing to be doing.

at any rate, I'm extremely tired, so I'll only get into a couple right now, but after I get some sleep I'll look at all this week's offerings in depth.

:cheers:

Thursday

Southern Miss @ Boise St

Southern Miss has good speed, Boise St has a great RB, and both teams have 12 days to prepare. SMiss went into ECU and sped past them for 3 out of 4 quarters. They rushed 43 times for 3.4ypc. That's not great, but ECU actually has a semblance of rushing defense...and I didn't expect SMiss to do that well on the ground. Young threw 18/28 for 237yds, 1TD and 1int. Again, not great, but with ECU's speed, I thought they'd have more trouble than they did. I think if SMiss hadn't fumbled and lost 2 that this would have been a much more lopsided game. SMiss, btw, held ECU to 97yards on 37 rushes for 2.6ypc........

Boise has quickly fallen from the "prospective darkhorse BCS bowlgame" team after losing to Udub. They bounced back to beat Wyoming by holding them to few rushing yards (while allowing well over 200 passing yards), but in the Washington game, Tharp went 29/47 for 285 yards, 1TD & 3ints. Ian Johnson was held to 81 yards on 20 carries.

Yet the boxscore:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/boxscore;_ylt=ArpnTDi6i28u8fWru54MMkfyvbYF?gid=200709080065

shows the broncos with more FDs and more total yards, but the problem was the turnovers, especially the picks, and the 9 penalties.

I think SMiss can win this game. If they can win the TO war, and I think they can, and if they can manage more discipline (2 penalties to ECU's 9:)), then they should have a great shot. I think between the Dline and the secondary's speed they can contain the passing game (ECU went 20/35 for 203 - 5.8yp attempt)

I may well play this for 4:1 if I can get it...I might play it at 3:1 if I can't get 4...

Memphis @ Arkansas St

I like Arkie St to win this by 14. Or more. I hope the line will drop. I am merely a bigot against what I perceive as a team which has flushed themselves since DeAngelo Williams left. There was some love for Memphis in week 4, but I just didn't see it.

this is shameful:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/boxscore?gid=200709220210

It was 42-0 at the end of the 1H, they only scored in meaningless garbage time (the entirety of the 2H), and memphis even benefited from 3 fumble recoveries. UCF could easily have won this game 63-6.

I would support a play on Arkansas St laying up to 7. This is a team which really gave Texas something of a scare in the 4th of that one, and they managed to score in every quarter of the Tennessee game. I didn't expect the Indians to win or even cover versus TN's offense, but understand this:

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/boxscore?gid=200709220071

The Indians rushed 31 times for 178 yards. That's 5.7ypc on TN's defense. Of course TN's numbers look better, but the key in my mind here is that Arkansas St made it necessary that TN's numbers be spectacular. ...I am damned impressed with Arky St's play this season (the cockiness almost seems warranted), and I am, again this year, thoroughly unimpressed by Memphis.

Friday

West Virginia @ South Florida

.........this should be a damned fucking exciting game. I'm really looking forward to watching it, actually. 84 points...that's a guess (no idea where they'll set this total). But I can see either team winning with scores in the mid 40s to the mid 30s. Given that, 7 might sound like a good number to lay or take the points with...

I want over 2.5:1. I would prefer, and I think I might very well get, 3:1.

Then I'll damn near definitely play it.

that's enough for one night. Joe, wish me luck on that sleep thing...

:prayer
 
thanks Jump...we'll see where it is when it gets offshore.

My plays here:

ML dogs:
Southern Miss +350
Air Force +125
UNLV +150
Florida International +400
Akron +475
Temple +200
Colorado St +370
California +216
ECU +430
Michigan St +270

Spreads:
Cincinnati -14 (-110)
Ohio State -22.5 (-110)
Arkansas St -3.5 (-110)
BYU -5.5 (+101)
Troy -12.5 (-103)
Buffalo +16.5 (-110)
Louisville -8 (-107)
Baylor +16.5 (-101)

possible plays:
Buffalo >750
Baylor - Very high ML
N Texas +6000 (more = better)

those last three...I've pretty much removed from consideration. I'll keep watching, but I'm not going to risk it with NT, and Buff and Baylor just don't have the value I want.
 
Very nice thoughts, RB. I have already bet S.Miss +10, and am looking forward to adding Arkansas St later in the week if I can get -3 or better. I, like you, extremely dislike this Memphis team, and it started when Williams left. I said last week that UCF was going to take their frustrations out on them (only bet it for a unit) and we all saw what happened there. I think Arky wins comfortably as well.

BOL. :shake:
 
You really think USF can beat WVU RB? I just can't see it, I love this USF team too but WVU is another animal. I also think Dr. Bob will drive this line down. He is a numbers guy and numbers do support a USF play here...but I think WVU rolls them personally.
 
hey, if Bob can get this line down to 3, that forces me to play the mounties. bob actually helped out a couple of my plays last week, so hopefully that trend will continue.

Red, good info on those thursday night contests. Am in total agreement about arky st, altho I usually start at saturday and work backwards. I would have played them vs Tenny had I got 21 or better, and I am thankful I didn't play it whilst offered less. They held their own against the Vols, and memphis did look like dogshit. Looks like a solid play.
 
HUNTDOG said:
You really think USF can beat WVU RB? I just can't see it, I love this USF team too but WVU is another animal. I also think Dr. Bob will drive this line down. He is a numbers guy and numbers do support a USF play here...but I think WVU rolls them personally.
Click to expand...

I do, HUNT.

If USF defense really, really comes to play...I do.
 
Red don't know if you watched or heard about MD/WF on Saturday. I am still sick over that game and I imagine it will take me quite a while to get over it. One of the greatest give aways of all time. I'm not sure they can recover from this devestating a loss in a game where they dominated for 3 qtrs. Steffy confidence may be completely shot.
 
This week will definitely be interesting, starting in week 5 is usually when the big underdogs start to cash at a much higher rate.
I like the Southern Miss and USF plays, I'll be on them myself.
The rest of my possibilities are
UNC, Akron, Temple, AF, Buffalo, NIU, Cal, Bama, KSU, CSU, ECU, GTech, NC St, NM, LA Tech, FIU and UL-Monroe. Did I miss any?
The one I'm thinking I like the most as a large dog is Buffalo. The way Ball St lost that game to Nebraska, they might be in a mental funk after that.
The other small ones that will almost certainly be plays are Temple, AF and GTech.
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts this week.
 
Hunt, Aztec, Yes I do think they can win. They'll have to keep scoring with em, but I think they can do that. As Toledo, Akron, and Syracuse showed us, all it takes is to keep scoring. North Texas showed what happened when you don't keep scoring. The key to me is less do I think they will win THIS time, but rather do I think there's enough value in the line to take a shot. I haven't played the dog here, and if Dr Bob DOES fuck me on this line, then I won't play it. Since he's been giving out plays like 2 hours before the Thursday game, I'm not too concerned about him fucking that one up for me before I get a bet down...

Ramble, Slim, I'm glad it's not just me. I think Memphis is going to get a beatdown. I'm reminded of Akron going to NC State last year at 3.5:1...Akron was better last year. And that's the perfect situation in my mind for ML dogs.

:shake:

Timh, I was praying for you this week, bro. Seriously. That must have been apocalyptic for you to watch. I saw the early score roll by and thought, well, maybe I should considered UM....then I saw the final in OT and bout shit myself...."aw crap...tim, put down the icepick...you need yours eyes buddy..."

The terps went from winning in a big way to not even covering, and you're right...they thoroughly gave it away. This week, they could do one of two things: Bounce back and clobber Rutgers in as shocking a performance this week as they had last week......or they'll lose and get skunked. And the team will fall apart.

You tell me what'll happen.

The rest of my possibilities are
UNC, Akron, Temple, AF, Buffalo, NIU, Cal, Bama, KSU, CSU, ECU, GTech, NC St, NM, LA Tech, FIU and UL-Monroe. Did I miss any?
Click to expand...

I dunno. There are an awful lot of high numbers this week...I'm not sure what I'll be on, but I will be on some...

SMiss is at 350 (5d) 325 (wsex), 330 (Grk) and bookmaker is being a bunch of slow-ass bitches about MLs...and 5dimes has all of them out. 5dimes has been paying my bills the last couple months. ...real nice of em.
 
Im a a USF homer but I don't bet with my heart. Just some facts to support a USF ML play. I realize that what happened in the past is the past. USF did beat WVU last year at WVU. It can happen again. USF just beat a ranked team on the road two weeks ago where Auburn had been 12-1 since 2000. The USF program has only been in existence for 11 years and this is easily the biggest game in their history. A win and they are more than likely in the top 10. This team has been focused all year and I love Leavitt as head coach. He has down a ridiculous job with this team. This game will be soldout for the 1st time in CFB in Tampa history. Add to the fact that the game is televised nationally and we have one amped up team. You could say WVU has revenge on its mind after last year. Leavitt will have a gameplan to shut down the WVU offense. Will they completely shutdown the offense? NO. USF has speed in all areas of their defense. Speed that is being undervalued. They have two potential NFL draft picks in their secondary with a beast at linebacker in Moffitt. WVU defense hasn't impressed me at all this season and to me WVU has yet to be tested this year. This is where I feel WVU will lose. USF has tall and lankey receivers that will cause fits for the WVU defense. Ford should pound the ball down WVU's throat and Grothe is a dual threat with his legs as well as his arm. He is a gamer and for some of you that haven't seen this kid play, he is all heart and wants the ball with the game on the line. I love this game and USF will show the country that they belong. People say that the win on the road at Auburn wasn't that great because Auburn sucks this year. Well after USF WINS SU (I hope) on Friday they won't be saying that anymore. This is going to be my biggest play yet this year.

USF ML and +7 is my play.

Red....sorry to clog your thread. Just excited about Friday.
 
WVU @ SFU is at 7 at bookmaker right now.

Duke @ Miami, it's been good to see Duke get a win at NW and then almost get a win at Navy, but as long as Miami shows up, they'll have no shot to win this one. You can get +2250 at 5dimes, but I don't believe that's worth messing with.

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech

+625 at 5dimes. That's a joke. First, this should be a couple dollars higher given the 16.5 to 17pt spread. So if you like playing UNC, give it some time to go up or just wait for Matchbook. VPI has not looked impressive. At least they're falling in the rankings, but defeating ECU at home by just a little more than the skin of their ass isn't a particularly good omen for them. Ohio is the ass of the MAC, and VPI did beat them soundly allowing only 114 yards of total offense(the box score is so lopsided it fell of my computer screen), but I think a comparison to ECU is a much better one than to Ohio or *HAH!* William and Mary...

The Pirates ran 35 times for 142yrds at 4.1ypc. The Hokies ran for 33 yards on 31 carries. They seem to have fixed that against Ohio and W&M, but I daresay Carolina has a few more speedy guys on defense than the bobcats or the tribe...and this won't be a spread offense that the UNC D has to face.

UNC just came off a pounding at the hands of South Florida. Understand, the Tarheels threw four interceptions, but the Bulls dropped 3 fumbles on the turf. South Florida just manhandled them. UNC is going to have to correct the turnovers, establish a run game, and on occasion throw the ball.....and not to the Hokie defense. Should be a tough task...but there might just be some value in this.

I think it is highly likely that UNC covers the spread....dunno about winning. No play for now.

Akron @ Connecticut

Akron hasn't been good this year at all, and despite Connecticut's win over Pitt last week, don't for a moment think they're good - they lost to Temple 2 weeks ago and were awarded the game by the refs. UCONN did beat Duke (but who besides NW hasn't?), and Pitt threw 17 points at the Huskies off turnovers. That one strikes me as a Wanny special. Hehe

capt.c375cce9d3d84c889dae405257060395.connecticut_pittsburgh_football_paks107.jpg
,

...though admittedly I didn't see the game.

Pitt outplayed em in all sorts of ways...they just also tossed 4 interceptions and lost one more fumble than UCONN did.

Akron meanwhile has held tOSU to 20 points and beaten both Army and Kent st. I realize this one's going to be on the road, but over 4:1 seems like a good number for a shot at another Akron win. Some History I don't like:

Akron is 0-10 since 93 the week following their Kent St. game.
Akron has lost the last 2 meetings by a total of 4 points - UConn kicked a FG in the waning moments in 03 to win 38-37.

I think there's a chance this line might rise, so I'm going to wait on it for now.
 
HUNTDOG said:
You really think USF can beat WVU RB? I just can't see it, I love this USF team too but WVU is another animal. I also think Dr. Bob will drive this line down. He is a numbers guy and numbers do support a USF play here...but I think WVU rolls them personally.
Click to expand...

this is the same WVU squad as last year imo. little weaker on defense too.
 
ATP, don't be sorry bro. I appreciate the info!

Indiana @ Iowa

I'm surprised this line isn't higher. Someone would have to convince me to play this one though, because I'm thinking a spread play at less than 2TDs might be warranted.

Mississippi St @ South Carolina

Very Likely Not. It's tough to play a ML SU on the road in the SEC...kinda like laying DD chalk on the road. I mean, you can do it, but you won't like the result very much. Some history:

South Carolina pitched a shutout last year against Miss St. but at 15-0, MSU's defense didn't exactly suck...
Gamecocks lost all 4 home games in SEC play last year (#12 UGA, #12 Ark, #2 Auburn, #8 Tenn). Not this year, methinks.

Temple @ Army

To NOT play this game would be the antithesis of what I try to do with ML dogs. I know Temple has a tough time winning (24 straight road losses up to this game), but aside from the shelling Buffalo gave em, they've actually performed rather well this year. History:

Temple is 1-3 all time vs Army, but won the last meeting 23-22(1994).
Recently, Army is 3-23 in home games vs Div1A opponents.

This is a winnable game for the Owls, and after the Uconn game, they have GOT to be itching for a road win on paper as well as winning it physically.

Air Force @ Navy

Value should disappear fast in this one. I don't like to play under 150(sure did work when I violated that rule with Indiana, last week, eh?), but after the performance against Duke (ever thought you'd see 500+ yards of offense out of the Blue Devils?), one MUST think Air Force has at least a 50-50 shot here against the Middies. Air Force got creamed by BYU, but they rushed 32 times for 133 yards against that tough D...

there should be 300 yards of rushing for both teams by the end of this one...

Buffalo @ Ball St.

Ball St waxed em 55-25 last year. Ball St could score 55 again this year. But that defensive unit couldn't stop a bed-ridden RB...much less a football team. Miami OH drove down for the gamewinner on them. In their win against Navy, the middies rushed 65 times for 521yards. Nebraska threw for 29 of 37 for 438 yards. The Cards offense actually outdid Nebraska's offense, but Ball St's defense is so bad that Nebraska managed the win anyway.

Meanwhile, Buffalo managed to throw for 339 (29 of 41) yards against Penn St. Granted, much of that was in garbage time, but Penn St's defensive garbage is better than Ball St's starting D. The Bulls managed 20 FDs to PSU's 22...As long as Buffalo can avoid the interceptions they had against Baylor (seems likely to me), then they should be right in this game at the end...at the very least.

I'll probly play this game. Not sure when...
 
Timh said:
Red don't know if you watched or heard about MD/WF on Saturday. I am still sick over that game and I imagine it will take me quite a while to get over it. One of the greatest give aways of all time. I'm not sure they can recover from this devestating a loss in a game where they dominated for 3 qtrs. Steffy confidence may be completely shot.
Click to expand...


horrible loss
 
Timh said:
Red don't know if you watched or heard about MD/WF on Saturday. I am still sick over that game and I imagine it will take me quite a while to get over it. One of the greatest give aways of all time. I'm not sure they can recover from this devestating a loss in a game where they dominated for 3 qtrs. Steffy confidence may be completely shot.
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear about that but now I'm licking my chops on Rutgers -14 as Schiano continues the Rutgers "We Never Leave Home" and "Ray Rice for Heisman" campaign continues.
 
Air Force @ Navy

Value should disappear fast in this one. I don't like to play under 150(sure did work when I violated that rule with Indiana, last week, eh?), but after the performance against Duke (ever thought you'd see 500+ yards of offense out of the Blue Devils?), one MUST think Air Force has at least a 50-50 shot here against the Middies. Air Force got creamed by BYU, but they rushed 32 times for 133 yards against that tough D...

there should be 300 yards of rushing for both teams by the end of this one...
Click to expand...

AFA should be favored in this game really IMO...i know why they aren't, but considering..

Also, Navy plays much worse in Anapolis than on the road historically.
 
Northern Illinois @ Cent. Michigan

What incredibly disappointing teams. If someone can tell me why one should be favored over the other, I'd be delighted to hear it. 135 isn't worth much effort, anyway...if I could get 2:1 on a game like this, I'd be all over it, but at 1.35...nahh..

Mike Hart @ Northwestern

Over. UM will run all over Northwestern, but we've already seen twice now how well the UM defense handles the spread offense. I think this is a big opportunity for NW...now, had they actually beaten DUKE I might be inclined to wager a usual amount. I still might. But until I see what BAR and Hunt have to say about UM this week, no play for me. Besides, again, this line is a few dollars short. I hate that about some of these MLs...even pinny was getting tight with some of em.

Syracuse @ Miami, OH

no value.

Utah St @ Utah

I have no great interest in playing Utah St, but after last week's showing by USU giving SJSU a run for its money...and then Utah not managing to score at all against UNLV...I gotta give em some consideration...again, at +20, there should be higher value than 1125, but with a team that has perhaps a 20% chance of winning...perhaps more.....1125 might be worthwhile.

I know that last year Utah skunked em 48 to nothing as 20 pt faves. But this is a different Utah team from last year. How is it that the only game they win is against UCLA...and they lose to Oregon St, Air Force, and UNLV...? Well, in this last game, some key turnovers ended drives (including going 1 for 5 on 4th down). Utah's injured QB Brian Johnson started in the second half, so we cannot count on the backup being at QB. But he went 12 of 19 for 78 yards. It's better than a kick in a teeth, but 4.1 yards per attempt against UNLV is nothing to be thrilled about. With such a powerful letdown, can it carryover tot he following week again...? I'm thinking of Michigan St's incredible meltdowns over the last few years.

anyway, 12:1 or 13:1 would be better. 15:1 would be downright nice...

California @ Oregon

okay. I'll bite. Cal at +168 at Oregon........I'm not sure where I'd put this line, but I certainly think there is value in the line...not sure if either defense can stop either offense. If Oregon gets in a hole to Cal the way they got in a hole to Stanford, they'll have a long day.

Home team has won the last 4 meetings
Cal won 45-24 last year. Oregon won 27-20 in OT in 05.
Forsett rushed for 163 coming off the bench LY - no reason to think he won't this year.

What I have no idea about is the line movement. I'm concerned that I'll lose value if I wait...but I want to wait and see if it gets bet up...2:1 would be spectacular.

also, I wonder what Garf thinks of this one...he's a quacker.
 
Jump, I tend to agree...

Blue_Chip, yeah, I figured I'd better go ahead and play it, so I did before I finished my first post today.

RJ, you think Maryland is going to roll over and die now?
 
dmart420 said:
this is the same WVU squad as last year imo. little weaker on defense too.
Click to expand...
negative....they are faster on defense and they are not as bad as everyone thinks....they make great 2H adjustments as they avg giving up 10.3 ppg in teh 2H. And one mor ethings they avg just under 31 ppg in the 2H. Thats 21 points more than their opp in the 2 H. which is a sign of a great team. Depth depth depth. Sounds like a good defense to me bend do not break capitalize on turnovers with the offense. Way different team than last year
 
Alabama @ Florida St

Abalama is a dog...I understand it.....just......wow. Not sure what to make of this. I'm confused. No play as of yet. In any case +115 isn't much value.

Penn St @ Illinois

I don't think there's sufficient value. again.

Michigan St @ Wisconsin

Sparty +250ish...hmmm.....The question here in my mind is the same as last week. Can someone actually go into Wisky and win. MSU might have a slightly better shot than Iowa. Now sure about this one...at 3:1 I guess I'll be forced into it, and if the line keeps dropping, then I guess I'll get off of it, but I do like the value here...

Iowa St @ Nebraska

Big Red had a Big Scare last week. Doubt it happens again this week. Very Much Doubt It.

Kansas St @ Texas

Texas may lose this year, but I doubt it'll be to this bunch...

UNLV @ Nevada

after last week's performance, I have to give UNLV some consideration here. Nevada won 31-3 LY, but their offensive ability has dropped a bit this year. Losing at NorthWestern doesn't make me like them more, that's for sure...especially with how they did it...how bout THIS piss away job...Northwestern rushed 26 times for 204 yards at 7.8yp attempt. That's some piss poor rushing defense.

And given UNLV's rushing ability (the troubles against Wisky notwithstanding) I have got to believe UNLV has more than a good chance of winning this one.

UTEP @ SMU

I can't imagine finding a reason to bet this no-value shitfest.

Hawaii @ Idaho

Unless they sit Colt Brennan again, I can't imagine playing this one at any number.

LSU @ Tulane

I will be on the Under here. It's like an LSU team total but higher. :)
 
As for NW, monitor the injury to Sutton...no way you can play NW IMO w/ out him close to 100%...if he couldn't go against tOSU, a team hates like no other after they didn't offer him after he was Mr Football in Ohio his senior year, the kid is really hurt...their spread isn't nearly as potent w/out him..not even close.

Also, huge revenger for Texas in that KState game...
 
TroyStacks said:
negative....they are faster on defense and they are not as bad as everyone thinks....they make great 2H adjustments as they avg giving up 10.3 ppg in teh 2H. And one mor ethings they avg just under 31 ppg in the 2H. Thats 21 points more than their opp in the 2 H. which is a sign of a great team. Depth depth depth. Sounds like a good defense to me bend do not break capitalize on turnovers with the offense. Way different team than last year
Click to expand...

This is interesting. Thanks for posting it, bro. So WVU will extend in the second, you think...? Why not wait for a 2H line and play that, then?
 
Good point, Jump. Thanks.

Colorado St @ TCU

I'm not up on my Colorado St info, but I see they've lost some fairly close games to Colorado (rivalries are fun), Cal, and Houston. TCU meanwhile played Texas pretty close until the 4th quarter. If TCU hadn't fumbled so damned much, then they might have even won that game. Still, the rams putting up 28 on Cal is impressive to me. Look at this boxscore:

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/boxscore;_ylt=ArpnTDi6i28u8fWru54MMkfyvbYF?gid=200709080089

The rams really outplayed them - they just had too damned many TurnOvers. ..and they allowed 245 yards on 31 rushes - that's not outplaying them....

wow. Just wow. That's why CSU had more FDs....it's cus they couldn't stop the extra-long runs and Cal ran right to the EZ. I guess the overall yard difference is because of short fields...geez. Never mind a play on CSU...unless someone can give me a reason, fuggit.

Eastern Michigan @ Vanderbilt - last I heard, God was still on Vandy's side. So no play on EMU for me. ........aside from God's favor, EMU sucks and Vandy isn't quite so bad as usual. So no play.

Western Michigan @ Toledo - if Value develops, I'll play the dog. Otherwise, no.

Kent St @ Ohio - if Value develops, I'll play the dog. Otherwise, no.

Oklahoma @ Colorado - not a chance. Might play oklahoma chalk if I can find under 3TDs, but I won't find that...

Baylor @ Texas A&M - books haven't had to pay for these lines yet. This time, thy just might. TAMU can't stop the pass, and Baylor will do it all day. Baylor may not be able to stop the run, but if they're able to on just a few drives, then Baylor has a great shot at winning this game. I will almost certainly be on this one. I just want more than the +700 I'm looking at.

I do think this line is stupid-high, though...

Pittsburgh @ UVA - I won't back Wanny on the road against the stout UVA Dline...especially after last week's loss. This might be the start of Pitt's meltdown this year, and I'm nto throwing money on that meltdown.

East Carolina @ Houston

Houston has a real problem holding onto the ball. Against Oregon, they threw 2 interceptions and lost two fumbles. So even managing to out-gain the Ducks, the Cougars lost the game 48-27. Against Colorado St, they threw 1 pick and fumbled 6 times (losing it once). Even against Tulane they threw 2 interceptions and fumbled 3 times (losing it once). If they keep that crap up, East Carolina will definitely have a chance. I'm not sure 3:1 is worth it...but it sure would be fun to give it a try...

UAB @ Tulsa - I rather think there's no chance Tulsa loses this one.

Louisville @ NCSU - I can't believe this is under DDs...folks, if you bet NCSU, then you're throwing money away. Beck has apparently been listed as the starter for next week, but remember he injured his knee leaving us with Evans last week. Even if he starts, I just don't see the wolfpack managing to do much on offense, and there's no chance the defense can stop Brohm. no play for redbearde.

Clemson @ Georgia Tech - ah, the battle over who is the bigger pretender...wheeee. 1 and a third isn't enough value to worry about, methinks.

Maryland @ Rutgers - some good discussion goin on already about this one. I rather doubt Maryland wins this.

Ohio St @ Minny - I'm not putting money on Minny this year. Not against anyone.

Southern Cal @ Washington - anyone feeling particularly optimistic about this one? Not me.

Notre Dame @ Purdue - I'd be more inclined to put money on Washington. Notre Dame goes 0-8 this year...maybe more. It's reeeally bad now in south bend...

BYU @ New Mexico - unless BYU turns it over a few times more than the Lobos, I just don't see the mormons losing. They sure did make a statement last week at home...now it's time for the road crushing. Might bother playing the spread....
 
Washington St @ Arizona - no value. if people inexplicably bet on Tuitama and Zona, then I'll bet wazzou on the ML...

Arizona St @ Stanford - ........not betting the Tree.

Louie Tech @ Fresno St - hahahaha...don't let the Hawaii game fool you. Hawaii's D had a tough day against a team which EVERYTHING went right for. And they still lost. That was the chance for LT. There's not another one this year...

Cincinnati @ San Diego st - ........what? 13.5 is a lot sure, but I really expect cinci to beat all holy hell out of them here....am I stupid for thinking this line is short?
 
Thanks for all of the write-ups. For what it's worth, I think that Colorado St. may be worth an ML play based on the anemic offense of TCU alone. What they have done (which is nothing) against some bad defenses is pretty astounding. CSU might be the 2nd best defense they have faced this season next to Texas'.

Here is my quick write-up on this one that I have in my thread. I'll probably add to it when I get more injury news:

Colorado St +13 at TCU

TCU has scored 78 points in 4 games this season. This is not an especially alarming number considering it is just under 20 points per game. However, looking at their opponents, it becomes more of a concern. They have played Baylor (27 points), Texas (13), Air Force (17), and SMU (21). With the exception of Texas, this TCU team has gone up against 3 sub-par defenses and have failed to produce. Three of their scores have been defensive scores, and they only have three offensive TDs since week 1's win at Baylor. They scored one offensive TD against a hapless SMU defense and we all saw how they gave away the AF game despite 40 plays inside the AF territory in the 2nd half.

The TCU offense is basically hopeless outside of running back Aaron Brown, who returned in a limited capacity against SMU for 11 carries. They will ride him completely if he is able to go.

TCU will ride their defense, who has forced 9 turnovers through 4 games. Truth is though, every QB except for AF's Shaun Carney (193 yards) has thrown for over 200 yards on them so far this season. These QBs were ultimately doomed by turnovers, but they obviously have had some success.

Colorado St. comes in at 0-3 but has had one of the tougher starting schedules in the country. They faltered @Colorado in OT 31-28, lost to #10 Cal at home 34-28, and lost last week @Houston 38-27. Now they go to TCU, who is actually arguably the worst team that they have faced thus far. Kyle Bell leads a steady, grind it out rushing attack, but the strength of this team is QB Caleb Hanie and the passing game. He has completed 68.7% of his passes thus far, which includes an impressive 9.12 yards per attempt. He has 7 TDs compared to 4 INTs. They did lose TE Kory Sperry for the season, but they have a slew of WRs to pick up the slack. This an underrated passing attack and an offense that actually outgained Colorado and Cal in their losses. Hanie has thrown for 220+ in each of the first three, and he seems to be effective in the short and vertical passing game.

I feel that Hanie will do enough to keep this team in the game. TCU's offense simply can not cover this spread on their own. Unless CSU hands them points, I think this stays close the whole way.

TCU 20
Colorado St. 17
 
DMoney, thanks bro. I appreciate the insight. Not sure about CSU being a good defense...they've given up a helluva lot of yards and points so far...and I'm concerned about TCU forcing more turnovers...they may well cover in that game, but I dunno if winning it is particularly likely. I'll certainly give it more thought tho, as you have quite a lot of valid points there.
 
UL Lafayette @ Central Florida - no.

FLint @ MTSU - after last week when MTSU lost to West. Kentucky, I'm willing to back FLINT in this game. maybe. It's remarkable how far MTSU has fallen this season so far...4:1 may be worth the shot...

Florida Atlantic @ Kentucky - just...no.

North Texas @ Arkansas - here's the big possibility for the week, IMO. I have no idea if 60:1 is worth it or not, but I think NT can score through the air....though obviously they won't be able to stop Arkansas' running game. If it turns into a shootout, and Arkansas makes a couple key mistakes that NT capitalizes on, then NT can win this game...even at +6000. NT has some significant ability in the passing game...perhaps Arkansas can actually stop this passing attack...but at +6000...better would be nice, of course, it might be worth a shot.

UL Monroe @ Troy - I like Troy. ULM sucks ass. I won't be betting on UL Monroe. I might very well bet the Troy chalk...
 
redbearde said:
DMoney, thanks bro. I appreciate the insight. Not sure about CSU being a good defense...they've given up a helluva lot of yards and points so far...and I'm concerned about TCU forcing more turnovers...they may well cover in that game, but I dunno if winning it is particularly likely. I'll certainly give it more thought tho, as you have quite a lot of valid points there.
Click to expand...

red, I don't think that they necessarily have good defense, but I do think that they are better than the likes of Air Force, Baylor, and SMU. After all, they did return 9 starters to a respectable D (gave up 21 ppg last year) coming into the season. While they have given up 30+ in each of their first three, I don't think that giving up those kind of points to Houston or California is anything to be embarrassed about. I feel that TCU is by far their "easiest" challenge on D thus far. :cheers:
 
Not sure if this matters, but Oregon didn't start classes until today. Thoughts on if this impacts the team in any way?
 
Air Force +125

I went ahead and played AFA. I think it's a great play, and I can only see this line going down. So of course Dr Bob will be taking Navy....
 
GL Redbearde. I always enjoy your post...It takes a set of titanium balls to bet the ML like you do.

I'm looking at Utah State as it has the possibility of being a low scoring affair. In an in-state rivalry game, you have to like your chances (with those numbers) if it is in fact low scoring.
 
my favorite play this week is on buffalo and maybe a little on the moneyline. this play reminds of a play that screwed me last year. Remember the Houston vs Miami game. When houston kept it real close and then the following week i think the played ullafayette and lost straight. I see the same situation happening.

Just wanted to put that out there and say that I appreciate your info. keep up the good work bud.

:cheers:
 
Dmoney416 said:
Thanks for all of the write-ups. For what it's worth, I think that Colorado St. may be worth an ML play based on the anemic offense of TCU alone. What they have done (which is nothing) against some bad defenses is pretty astounding. CSU might be the 2nd best defense they have faced this season next to Texas'.

Here is my quick write-up on this one that I have in my thread. I'll probably add to it when I get more injury news:

Colorado St +13 at TCU

TCU has scored 78 points in 4 games this season. This is not an especially alarming number considering it is just under 20 points per game. However, looking at their opponents, it becomes more of a concern. They have played Baylor (27 points), Texas (13), Air Force (17), and SMU (21). With the exception of Texas, this TCU team has gone up against 3 sub-par defenses and have failed to produce. Three of their scores have been defensive scores, and they only have three offensive TDs since week 1's win at Baylor. They scored one offensive TD against a hapless SMU defense and we all saw how they gave away the AF game despite 40 plays inside the AF territory in the 2nd half.

The TCU offense is basically hopeless outside of running back Aaron Brown, who returned in a limited capacity against SMU for 11 carries. They will ride him completely if he is able to go.

TCU will ride their defense, who has forced 9 turnovers through 4 games. Truth is though, every QB except for AF's Shaun Carney (193 yards) has thrown for over 200 yards on them so far this season. These QBs were ultimately doomed by turnovers, but they obviously have had some success.

Colorado St. comes in at 0-3 but has had one of the tougher starting schedules in the country. They faltered @Colorado in OT 31-28, lost to #10 Cal at home 34-28, and lost last week @Houston 38-27. Now they go to TCU, who is actually arguably the worst team that they have faced thus far. Kyle Bell leads a steady, grind it out rushing attack, but the strength of this team is QB Caleb Hanie and the passing game. He has completed 68.7% of his passes thus far, which includes an impressive 9.12 yards per attempt. He has 7 TDs compared to 4 INTs. They did lose TE Kory Sperry for the season, but they have a slew of WRs to pick up the slack. This an underrated passing attack and an offense that actually outgained Colorado and Cal in their losses. Hanie has thrown for 220+ in each of the first three, and he seems to be effective in the short and vertical passing game.

I feel that Hanie will do enough to keep this team in the game. TCU's offense simply can not cover this spread on their own. Unless CSU hands them points, I think this stays close the whole way.

TCU 20
Colorado St. 17
Click to expand...
I agree with ya Dmoney
 
Last edited:
Great week last Saturday, RB :smiley_acbe:


Memphis is a live dog that you should consider. They are taking a lot of hate based on one bad week of football and Arkansas State gettinf way too much credit for getting ass kicked less than people expected vs texas and tennessee.

CSU probably deserves atleast a look on the ml considering tcu anemia on offense

Indiana has a legit shot at Iowa ... another team that struggles to score.

California may be worth a look as the line drifts upwards, perhaps making a decent ml opener.

Anyways ... great job last week and look forward to the rest of this thread this week. :cheers:
 
Kyle, you may be right about Memphis, but I don't believe it. I've hated on Memphis ever since DeAngelo Williams left. ...I don't hate them based on one bad week of football...more like...one bad string of 20 weeks of football. And I don't think 3.5points at home to Memphis is a whole lot of credit. You'll have a hard job ahead of you convincing me of this one - I already have an Indians ticket.

CSU may well get a look from me...

I believe Iowa has a much tougher defense than Illinois. Iowa may struggle to score(especially against wisky), but Indiana will likely open holes you could drive the space shuttle through for Iowa's offense. The question is about Lewis...will he be shut down or contained, or will he be able to run through Iowa's defense? And even if he does, I don't hold much hope for an outright upset.

California at 180 is worth a shot to me...I'm hoping to get 2:1.

:shake:
 
also...

Hoosiers are 7-17-2 ATS in their last 26 road games.
Hoosiers are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 conference games.
Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

this is interesting if you're a trendy guy...

Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes last 4 games on Grass.
Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes last 4 games in September.
Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Hawkeyes last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0 in Hawkeyes last 5 games overall.
Under is 7-0 in Hawkeyes last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Hawkeyes last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Under is 4-1 in Hawkeyes last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Hawkeyes last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
 
I'm taking Alabama off the list for lack of value...and when I found it at 5dimes, I went ahead and played

UNLV +150

and I guess I'll add Colorado St. Dmoney and moneydog definitely have some valid points...
 
it wasn't, really...but those trends and both those offenses having problems does give me some interest. I probably won't play it.

UNC is at +775
Temple is at 190 and 195...almost to 2:1
North Texas has bumped up to 8000...hahahaha
Cal is at 180
Akron is at 415
Buffalo is at 600
Northwestern is at 650
Utah St is at 1150
Michigan St is at 260
Colorado St is at 370
Baylor is at 600
East Carolina is at 360
Fl Int is at 380

this is pretty much what I'm looking at right now.
 
redbearde, I like your plays so far. I'd like to talk more about the Indiana Iowa game possibly. I watched most of the IU ILL game this past weekend and it didn't give me a good indication on the pass defense of IU because Juice Williams of ILL is a horrid thrower accuracy wise.

I also don't know much about this Iowa defense, which lost to a predictable Wisconsin defense. I feel IU's offense is sorta the same also.

The one thing I love about Iowa though is Christensen, their quarterback. I played against this guy in high school and he was the most accurate quarterback I have ever seen on the high school level. From Chicago, so that is saying something as some good quarterbacks have come out of that area (at least to college). This guy is a winner and he will shred bad passing defenses, bad secondaries in general.

Another thing is I am not convinced Bill Lynch is a good coach at all for IU. I know he was put there because of the death of Coach Hep, but Lynch is a guy who got run out of my school, DIVISION III DEPAUW. I have a friend who walked on at IU as a linebacker, now at Northwestern, and he said Lynch was not a personable guy and that the offense didn't respond to him. In big games like this, a road test for IU, coaching is an important thing to look at. Kirk Ferentz is obviously one of the best in the business.

10.5 is a lot of points to lay but I could see it going either way. Any other thoughts? Those trends are very telling.
 
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