CFB ML Dogs Week 3

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 2-9, 18%, -3.5 units
Spreads: 7-6, 53.8%, +1.07 units

I got raped by moose antlers in week 2. There were 3 games I lost by bullshit bad play...missing FGs for instance...

alas.

on to week 2.

West VA @ Maryland - I think this line might be a little light at 14ish...maybe if it gets to 20ish there might be value in the ML...there are SERIOUS questions about WVU's defense...

TCU @ Air Force - No.

Oklahoma St @ Troy - Might have to consider the dog here...I know troy got beat up by Florida, but Troy at home should be a tad tougher nut than okiehomo st saw in week 2. ...not really a lean. Something to keep an eye on.

Illinois @ Syracuse - fuck no. Syracuse *might* cover, but there's no way they win.

Temple @ Connecticut - :36_11_6:

Virginia @ North Carolina - UVA sucks fat floppy donkey cock. No.

Buffalo @ Penn St - Buffalo got their only win this season last week.

Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt - might be on the chalk here. I just can't see backing Ole Miss in any SEC play...and sure as shit not for as cheap as this line is going to be...

Central Michigan @ Purdue - +19.5 at bookmaker strikes me as DAMNED high. Thing is, which Chippewas team will show up? Might be worth finding out with some CMU ML...

Cincinnati @ Miami, OH - again with the chalk - I think Cinci is for real this year...Look out Big East. no dog here this week.

Ohio @ Virginia Tech - at this point, with all hype being done and overdone, I might be willing to back a questionable team against VPI...

Iowa @ Iowa St - again with the chalk...I like Iowa and despise Iowa St this year.

Toledo @ Kansas - KU has been rolling lesser teams. Can't see them slowing down against Toledo. Helluva lotta points, tho...

EMU @ Northern Illinois - unless there's been an injury or thirteen I'm unaware of, this line is stupid high. I'll be on EMU at 5:1 or better like a fly on shit.

Army @ Wake Forest - This will be slaughterific. Wake chalk?

Tennessee @ Florida - -8.5 strikes me as low. Probly a no play all around for me.

Notre Dame @ Michigan - no chad henne and ND +10. I WILL SUPPORT NOTRE DUMBASS at this level.

Utah St @ Oklahomo - +47....BWAAAAHAAAAHAAAAAAHAAAAAAAA...

Fresno St @ Oregon - Oregon's attack is more balanced and faster than TAMU's. I don't think this is a game Pat Hill's crew can win. They blew their wad for a couple weeks against the Aggies.

Pittsburgh @ Michigan St - I don't think this is a reasonable line. I WILL be on chalk here.

tOSU @ Washington - ZERO value when facing this tough D. Again, I might be on the chalk...

Texas @ Central Florida - methinks not. Texas ain't NCSU...but 3 TDs is a lot to try to cover...

Louisiana Tech @ Cal - not a chance on the ML...but I might take LT and the points.

UCLA @ Utah - I really would have trouble backing Utah...but there might be value enough to make me...

Ball St @ Navy - holy fuck yes. I think Ball St pours onto last week's performance.

Akron @ Indiana - No. They might get more than 69 yards of offense, but I don't believe Indiana will give them the field position that tOSU did...

Southern Miss @ East Carolina - no value. Might wind up on ECU with a spread play. They have some speeeeed...

Western Michigan @ Missouri - I think this is an over-reaction line to last week, and while I think WMU's chances of winning are small, keeping it within a TD or two is VERY likely.

Idaho @ Washington St - no.

Houston @ Tulane - no idea. comments on Houston/Tulane, anyone?

Lousiville @ Kentucky - gotta wait for a total on this game...

Arkansas @ Alabama - Does arky have a QB yet...? Not much value here, anyway.

Boston College @ Georgia Tech - I'm not interested in fading GT yet...

Duke @ Northwestern - do we have another chance to fade duke at -17 and actually COVER it this time?

Texas Tech @ Rice - spread play here. Rice is really that bad. I'm amazed by my own stupid play on them last week. I counted it as a loss before the game started...

USC @ Nebraska - game of the week that by its nature has no value for me...almost every time. In any event, I don't want to fade EITHER of these teams.

UTEP @ NMSU - I am more likely to take NMSU in chalk. fuck UTEP.

Wyoming @ Boise St - I don't like any option on this game. I do think Boise St wins.

BYU @ Tulsa - I had enough going against the mormons in week 1.

Hawaii @ UNLV - I still think UNLV sucks donkey dick. But the Bows have to be tired after this long road trip.....they stay on the mainland this week. Where are they practicing? Anyone know? Also. Vegas game. shenanigans, anyone?

Florida St @ Colorado - anyone think FSU plays well this week...?

SDSU @ Arizona St - Bjorks...waiting on your thread for Arizona St. I would have played em in week 2, but I make it a policy to never chase my losses...and I wasn't in the best frame of mind for wagering.

New Mexico @ Arizona - I see huge value for New Mexico. Anyone may disagree. I seriously considered taking N. Arizona last week...

San Jose St @ Stanford - as stupid as this might sound, Stanford will likely have vengeance on their minds. And I expect they'll get it.

FLINT @ Miami - ......what the fuck is wrong with the U this year? Aside from sucking. badly.

ULMonroe @ Tex A&M - Aggies could not stop Fresno's run to the left. look at this boxscore http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/boxscore?gid=200709080001
I am certain this is a good ML AND spread bet. If ULM can stop the aggies occasionally, they should have a decent shot at winning.

SMU @ Arky St - SMU blows. They gave up 600 yards of passing to North Tex. Arky st -3 licks my ass, but for the record, this is an absolutely not play. SMU = no defense = no value at any number.

Minnesota @ Florida Atlantic - again, I want to read Bjorks, but if you didn't see last week's game, and the week before.....Minny TRIES TO LOSE. FAU at 4:1 would be great.

MTSU @ LSU - :36_11_6:

possible ML plays:
Central Michigan
Troy
Ohio
Eastern Michigan
Notre Dame
Ball St
New Mexico
UL Monroe
Florida Atlantic

spreads:
UNC
Texas Tech
Cincinnati
Vanderbilt
Iowa
Wake Forest
Michigan St
Louisiana Tech
Louisville/Kentucky Over
NMSU
Hawaii

Here's what I'm looking at. I think there's a lot of opportunity, and I hope to fuck Christ I actually get some of those opportunities to cash this week.
 
okay.

My Plays.

MLs:
Notre Dame +300
Florida Atlantic +335
UL Monroe +2650
New Mexico +360

Spreads:
Cincinnati -8.5
Sparty -8.5
UNC -3 (+101)
Vandy -5 (-105)
UL Monroe +24
Iowa -17
Eastern Michigan +14.5
Texas Tech -27.5 (-120)
MTSU @ LSU Under 58.5
ECU pk +114
Tennessee @ Florida Under 54.5 (-101)
BYU -6.5 (-107)
 
Red, not interested in BC ML?

Man I think BC has a very legit shot at a SU win here. BC run defense is stout and the pass defense is weak. GT run offense is good and the pass offense is weak.
 
Virginia @ North Carolina - UVA sucks fat floppy donkey cock. No.
Click to expand...


but do they like it ?.. virginia shut this nc team out last year and return entirety of that defense. have to consider them for ml .. whether they have floppy donkey cock in their mouth or skinny camel dick up their butt. if you think its both then maybe lay off.

you actually had me laughing out loud wih some of your jokes up there. e mich , flor atl and new mexico look like best chances on your list to me. gl red
 
vegaskyle, if I can't win anything, then I'm glad to make ya laugh...

regarding UVA...they struggle on the road, and this is FAR from the same offense the Heels got blanked on last year.

I understand your point, but I think the donkey cock in the mouth AND the camel dick up the butt might be an appropriate statement.
 
Don't let Utah suck you in Red. They are missing their 5 starters on offense from the beginning of the year and that includes their 4 best offensive players.
 
JPicks said:
Don't let Utah suck you in Red. They are missing their 5 starters on offense from the beginning of the year and that includes their 4 best offensive players.
Click to expand...

fear not. It would have to be well over 1000...and even then I might not.

still lookin hard at fading TAMU, tho...
 
Alright.

Notre Dame +300

More value betting...Henne is out.......Hart guaranteed the victory, and then in a follow-up question a reporter told him it looks like Henne's going to be out...and what then. He responded something along the lines of, "well...maybe not then..."

This is a mindset play, and it's a value play. This is a game with all of Michigan's problems that I think Notre Dame can win. And if they had delusions of a great season before, ND must see the problem, now. And here they have a game wherein they just might have a shot at winning.

At +300, I'll give it a whirl. And I doubt it gets this high again...though I've been wrong before...

Also,

FAU +335

This is a better FAU team than most people think. MTSU manhandled the Louisville defense, but FAU stopped MTSU completely until the 4thQ garbage time - one of those TDs was a blocked punt returned for a TD.

Also, Minny seems to devise more ways than you can possibly imagine to lose...Miami, OH simply managed to lose better than Minny last week.

Minny AT fau will end things differently in the same situation than they did against Miami...
 
decided not to wait any longer.

UL Monroe +2650 & +24

I was amazed by how easily the Bulldogs passed on TAMU last week, but once OT hit, Pat Hill had the guys running to the left at least 20 plays. TWENTY. And it worked. I think Monroe can do that shit too...this is a long shot, but I like it.

now watch'em get blitzed by 40.
 
GL bearde.

Ballsy play on ulm !

better rethink virginia .... gonna take the floppy donkey dick out of their mouth and shove it down butch davis' throat. hehehe
 
Good Luck RedBearde, I'm on the home dog Terps at +16.5 with strong runners, solid OL facing, as you mentioned, an iffy WV D.
 
vegaskyle said:
GL bearde.

Ballsy play on ulm !

better rethink virginia .... gonna take the floppy donkey dick out of their mouth and shove it down butch davis' throat. hehehe
Click to expand...

yeah. Ballsy might equal stupid. We'll see.

Regarding UVA...what is it about their offensive and defensive performances against the goliaths of Wyoming and Duke that leads you to believe they will perform well against UNC? Perhaps Davis's young kids will fuck up, but will UVA actually take from the Heels what they couldn't take from Duke...?
 
noaccountguy said:
Good Luck RedBearde, I'm on the home dog Terps at +16.5 with strong runners, solid OL facing, as you mentioned, an iffy WV D.
Click to expand...

Yeah...I would much prefer +17.5.....not sure what I'll do with that one. I ended up with a 14 to 20.5 middle last year and WVU won by 21...if I could get over 17...I might have to play the Terps points.

I don't like that these teams with shit defenses are in the top 10...
 
Hey Red,Im with ya on FAU ML ,I took em last week thinking they had a pretty good shot at knocking off a down ok st team but was wrong,But here they are at home against a very soft minny team .And as far as ULM Im with ya on them but not ML though,I too watched the TAMU FRESNO Game and watched fresno run pass at will whenever they wanted .(especially 2nd Half).Ill be all over just about any ML when tamu a fav and away from home.Im on the New Mex ML ,I watched them give game to UTEP,Then they beat a very good New Mexico St team @home ,Yes NM isnot good on road but ill take big value here in a upset. BOL on your plays
 
Red Whats your take on ML on colorado against FSU At worst colorado is willing and can throw better then FSU ?
 
moneydog said:
Hey Red,Im with ya on FAU ML ,I took em last week thinking they had a pretty good shot at knocking off a down ok st team but was wrong,But here they are at home against a very soft minny team .And as far as ULM Im with ya on them but not ML though,I too watched the TAMU FRESNO Game and watched fresno run pass at will whenever they wanted .(especially 2nd Half).Ill be all over just about any ML when tamu a fav and away from home.Im on the New Mex ML ,I watched them give game to UTEP,Then they beat a very good New Mexico St team @home ,Yes NM isnot good on road but ill take big value here in a upset. BOL on your plays
Click to expand...

the only reason I haven't played NMU yet is that I'm concerned that their wins aren't coming by their own execution as much as the other team's fuckups. Check the week 1 box score for em.... really not a great endorsement there.....

still, I might have to play it anyway. It's the sort of game I might get 50 cents more on at MB on friday or saturday morn...
 
moneydog said:
Red Whats your take on ML on colorado against FSU At worst colorado is willing and can throw better then FSU ?
Click to expand...

I see +170 for colorado, and I want more to fade FSU. Thing about Florida St is that no matter how bad the offense is, the Defense is pretty good.

+160-+170 was about as good as it got for Clemson.

Now, with what clemson has.....compared to what Colorado has.....should that line not be higher?

Maybe FSU was just getting a lot more credit than they deserved against Clemson, but I was about half an inch away from playing the seminoles chalk in week 1.......

:hang:

glad I didn't....

:smiley_acbe:
 
reNew, thanks man. I'll cross em off the list. That's the last straw for Tulane this week for me...lots of other guys LOVE Houston as well.

:shake:

okay, here's where I am with potential plays left...

possible ML plays:

Central Michigan - this is only here because of what I perceive as too much value on CMU...I don't really think they'll win, and it's almost certain that I won't play them.

Troy - still here due to possibility of more value. Again, very unlikely.

Ohio - probably shouldn't be here. I think VPI will likely win this one.

Eastern Michigan - Very likely will play. Just waiting for 5:1. I think it has value where it is, but I'm hoping for better...perhaps it's a dumb hope, but I think I can get it on MB as long as I don't get Dr Bobbed on it.

Ball St - pretty much gone. Too many folks I respect are on Navy.

New Mexico - again, I'm waiting for MB. I like the possibilities here.

spreads:

Texas Tech - if I find under 28 then I'll play it. Not sure if I'll see that again.

Wake Forest - I was hoping for a few less points, and at 21 I ain't laying that chalk. If it gets down a few points, then I might play it.

Louisiana Tech - looks like a lot of points, but I probably won't play it because of lack of familiarity with Cal. That and LT is in a massive letdown spot. Talk about blowing your load without getting blown or fucked...

Louisville/Kentucky Total - looking at this one now, if this keeps going up, I might hit the under...could we see 90? Sheesh...

NMSU - this keeps going down. Not sure why people are into UTEP...

Hawaii - HG likes em, so I gotta give it some serious thought. ...aside from UNLV still being a crappy team.
 
That UM game is a real toss up. No spread for UM defense this week, but it doesn't really matter becasue they still can't tackle. Just tough for me play with two very inexperienced qb's.
 
GL this week red.

Card looks solid. Probably would be on FAU +10 if I had not waited and watched go back to 8. :cheers:
 
HUNTDOG said:
That UM game is a real toss up. No spread for UM defense this week, but it doesn't really matter becasue they still can't tackle. Just tough for me play with two very inexperienced qb's.
Click to expand...

That's why I like 3:1 on the ML.......I mean, this has to be the first one that Notre Dame coaching staff can look at and say, "hey...they might actually be worse off than we are..."

and the players who were at the UM shellacking the domers had to eat last year...you'd think they'd want some revenge....
 
stfu, STEED...

;)

BeLIEve811 said:
Kentucky, Nebraska, New Mexico
Click to expand...

I can see Kentucky and New Mexico...

but Nebraska?

come on...you really think they can overpower USC when Pete has 2 weeks to prepare? They'll have to overpower the Trojans...cus I just don't believe they can compete with SC's speed.
 
I know my team and we are terrible... It's always like this. Every year we get talked up, but it always ends as a disappointment. Maybe one day fran and darnell will get fired. If that happens, the aggies will probably just pick up lloyd which unforunately is still an upgrade from what we have now. I definitely hit the ML for fresno state too. I figure one of these days fran's luck will run out (like the fumble on the 1 yard line). I'll still be there at the game 2nd deck 50 yard line 6th row, so basically win or lose i can be happy this way.

redbearde said:
Aztec4Life, thanks bro. GL to you too!



that's awful ballsy of us, ain't it...? GL to YOU...

:smiley_acbe:
Click to expand...
 
have to think that is pretty good value on new mexico that you locked up there. Think you might be on to something with emu too .... but then again i kind of liked them against ball state and that didnt turn out like i expected. Good luck this week, Redbearde ! ya F dr bob.
 
Eastern Michigan +14.5

money's been coming in on EMU, and I wanted to go ahead and hit the spread while I still could get the +14.5. I'm still waiting on the ML...I'm hoping to get 5:1 at MB on friday or saturday. Maybe I'll get Dr Bobbed out of it, but I hope not.
 
Looks like a solid card again this week redbearde.

I like the New Mexico play, I might have to join you on it.

FAU maybe, but I doubt I have the gonad, but I do think they're neck and neck with Troy for the best team in the Sun Belt, FWIW.

I'm surprised you have no interest in BC.
I'm probably going to play Kentucky as well. I think they have the offense to hang with Louisville. This game could come down to who has the ball last.

I also will likely roll with UTEP for just the first half, hopefully +160 or so, since true to form last year and so far this year, they are a 1st half team and then they fall apart in the 2nd half.
:shake:
 
macdamn said:
Looks like a solid card again this week redbearde.

I like the New Mexico play, I might have to join you on it.

FAU maybe, but I doubt I have the gonad, but I do think they're neck and neck with Troy for the best team in the Sun Belt, FWIW.

I'm surprised you have no interest in BC.
I'm probably going to play Kentucky as well. I think they have the offense to hang with Louisville. This game could come down to who has the ball last.

I also will likely roll with UTEP for just the first half, hopefully +160 or so, since true to form last year and so far this year, they are a 1st half team and then they fall apart in the 2nd half.
:shake:
Click to expand...

I'm surprised the proverbial everybody likes BC...since I won't be betting GT, I can only offer you (and everyone else) good luck on that ML. I realize GT has only played a couple of cupcakes so far, but they sure did look good doing it.

GL with Kentucky...I'm thinking the Under might be a good place to be on it...eventually.

UTEP is an interesting bet. Might want to wait for halftime and get a 2H bet...I did that a couple times last year to great effect.

GL bro.

'an_horse'
 
I'm finally getting around to considering totals.

LSU/MTSU under mid 50s

I'm thinking MTSU does not score. Even if it's a bloodbath, are we to expect LSU to score 8 TDs on their own...?

Fla/Tenn under upper 50s

I see this as a low scoring game, and RJ's thread has some great history indicating low scores. really liking this.

Kentucky/Louisville over whatever

what an unpopular play this is...
 
Like the picks red. GL this week.

I'd keep a look out for the weather before jumping on the UL/UK over though.
 
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