CFB ML dogs week 10

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 29-51, 36.25%, +15.26 units

Plays

Virginia Tech +130 - W
Temple +250 - L
Akron +235 - L
Navy +150
Buffalo +230
South Carolina +175
South Carolina +200 (oops)
Eastern Michigan +280
Arizona St +275

UNC -2.5 (-109)
Nevada -6.5 (-110) - L
Michigan -5 (+111)
Wake Forest -1 (+101)
Uconn pk -105

Last week was brutal for me personally. Pitt lost in the final couple minutes with a fumble at the Louisville 1 yardline. UTEP failed to win the race with Houston, and the bet I made on wazzou mysteriously vanished. Air Force even got fumble happy on thursday, and aside from that, they really played at least as well as New Mexico...losing by 3.....the same number as the turnover differential.

I made about a unit in spreads, and lost just over a unit in MLs, so it wasn't catastrophic, but week 9 was a bad week nonetheless. Rutgers and Indiana just didn't show up...heh. That happens with this style quite regularly.......

I count 13 ML dog winners. it'll be 14 if UCF wins. And several of those I thought had no value - UCF for instance. Toledo, as well, while technically a dog.....I'm just not sure how a guy could lie to himself enough to think placing money on the rockets is a good idea this year.

On to this week...

Thursday

VPI @ Georgia Tech - I guess at +150 I would take it, and really at even 125, I probably should take it, but I'm not sure I want to break my rule yet again. I lose every fucking time I do it. The issue with VPI is at QB and the offense actually scoring. GT doesn't have a shit defense, but VPI couldn't even put a TD on BC at home (the one they got credit for was a ref gift), and I'm extremely skeptical of playing a defense & special teams (even the hokies) to score more than an offense (even GT's)....especially when that offense no longer has Reggie "give the opponent the fuckin" Ball

Friday

Temple @ Ohio - they've made temple a dog again...and to Ohio; how quaint. Now, DiMichele got trounced out of that game, and from what I saw of his injury, there's no way in hell he comes back this season. his leg HAD to be broken.

But I would think by now that linesmakers would have noticed that Temple plays some fuckin defense (34 vs the pass and 55th in total yards......hey, it's a huge step up, okay?) - and while Vaughn Charlton doesn't present the same dual threat that DiMichele did, he still went 9/13 for 109yds and a TD. I will absolutely be on this one. I see +8, and I love the value I'll get on the ML. 3:1 would be great and greedy, but really 2:1 is good enough, and it ought to be in the high 200s at LEAST.

I don wonder about movement on this one.......will folks want to ride the win-streak or will they fade with DiMichele gone? haroom.

Akron @ Bowling Green - of course the Zips suck overall, but I actually think they play defense pretty well...not unlike the Owls above, they play good pass defense (33rd), and they have had more than a few flashes of impressiveness...of course the offense is marginally better than Notre Dame's. be that as it may, 2.75:1 would be more than enough to entice me here. Hell, I think 2:1 would be enough, but I should get more than that with +7.

Nevada -5 @ New Mexico St - Nevada has gotten better and better, and they took Boise St to about a billion OTs...both almost scoring 70. New Mexico St, otoh, has gotten progressively worse. Even with Holbrook healthy again, they're just not getting points. So while they are 6th in passing yards, they're 80th in points scored...and losing Chris Williams is a big blow. I may well be on Nevada -5 or 6. I sure as hell won't be on the aggies.

Saturday

Maryland @ UNC - I think this line ought to be switched. I might be able to consider the heels as a dog play..........maybe that's why it isn't switched. heh. fuckin tight line, I think. Timh's pov would be good for this one...
 
GL this week red - I don't think that any team in the MAC - with the exception of NIU - should be a TD+ dog to anyone else, regardless of situation.
 
Ball St @ Indiana - I didn't take the Cards vs illinois, and the big problem is still the rushing defense. but I think Ball St might be able to shoot it out with Indiana, and just a few key stops by the ball st defense could get it done. >250 might just be worthwhile for a shot, at any rate...

Rutgers @ Uconn - how bout that? The huskies finally getting some respect. I bet against em last week.......I'm not sure I want to again this week...especially with an expectation of such little money on top of even...

Cincinnati @ South Florida - hmm...both of these teams have been demoralized by recent losses. Your guess (whoever you are) is as good as mine here. Honestly, I think 2:1 might be good enough just on the tossup aspect of who gives up mentally first.

Iowa @ Northwestern - NW -1? what a joke...

NC State @ Miami - I think the wolfpack's win'streak' doesn't make it to 3.....the U rolls here.

Clemson @ Duke - Duke is 75th in rushing defense. That's right there with Northwestern and Buffalo. Clemson ought to run through em like they're notre dame...

Vanderbilt @ Florida - .......if Vandy can pass reasonably well, then they might have a shot. I betchya there won't be shit for value though. I predict no better than +600, and it ought to be a lot more.

South Carolina @ Arkansas - bout time for Spurrier to get a win. I know the gamecocks have a tough time against the run, but overall defense is still pretty fuckin stout. I'm a believer in HBC, at any rate, and Arky has been remarkably...not admirable against quality opponents. Those good stats have come from beating up on N. Texas, Chattanooga, Mississippi, and Florida International. The best win they had was against Troy. They lost to Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama....and I honestly believe Arky could lose out for the rest of the season.

None of this screams Good Team to me, and I think the Gamecocks will expose em. Probly be on this one.......love to get 2:1, but I should get well over 1.5...

Colorado St @ BYU -21 - ...the rams'll get crushed.

Kansas St -14 @ Iowa St - Can't support ISU....just can't.

Nebraska @ Kansas -17 - Nebraska can't stop ball st, and they won't stop kansas. Not sure about Kansas stopping nebraska enough to warrant a spread play here. It actually seems quite high to me...

East Carolina -4.5 @ Memphis - I remain bigoted against the tigers. And I think the Pirates are pretty good. If anything, I'll have an ECU spread ticket.

Purdon't @ Penn St -7 - I think that's a good line. No play for me.

Navy @ Notre Dame - BWAAAAHAAAAHAAAA!!!1!1!!!! I don't care that delaware just beat Navy. I'll take Navy as a dog over the domers. HELL YES. If I can't get over 1.5, then I'll take a pk spread play...This entertains me to no end.

San Jose St @ Boise St -26 - oh, I really don't think so.

UTEP @ Rice +7 - not enough. I would need what I'd get for +14 or so. I think UTEP will win......VERY likely.

LSU @ Alabama +7.5 - ...not a fan of the tide's defense against the Hester rushing bulldozer attack.

UCLA -2.5 @ Arizona - wtf? is all I can say about this one. well, that and "no value"

Arizona St +7@ Oregon - I'll be waiting on the bjorks report before I even think about this one.

Buffalo + 6 @ Miami Oh - There's much I could discuss about this one...I'd prefer a bit more value, but I think Miami is overvalued at this spot. I would want 225 or so...2:1 is probably okay, but I like having more buffer with my perceived chances...and I'm thinking 35-40% chance here. Perhaps more. Raudabaugh is not a complete assclown...but both these teams are sitting at the top of the MAC east - it's a pretty good situational spot for Buff off a solid win and Miami off of a loss to Vandy AND a beating by Temple without the star QB.

Army @ Air Force -16.5 - AFA will have a tough time compensating for Trimble, but Army's defense is going to have a helluva time stopping the Air Force offense.

Michigan -4 @ Michigan St - I'll be looking at our local semcon's predictions, but I think Sparty will have a helluva time getting through the michigan defense. I have a bad habit of playing better teams with short chalk on the road. Sparty runs the traditional attack - michigan has trouble with the spread. Against a power rungame, they're probably a top 4 or 5 run defense in the country. If MSU beats em through the air, more power to em......but I just don't see it. In any event, Hell No to a sparty ML play.

Texas A&M @ Olahoma -20 - linesmakers have keyed into aggie's worth. hehe. I think this line is about right.

Wisconsin @ Ohio St -16 - good grief that's high...Wisky +16 might be worthwhile, but I don't really have much hope for a wisconsin win.......course, this is the sort of spot I'll be kicking myself for if tOSU loses. but I think this is a team that the badgers rushing attack will have a HELL of a problem with, and the idea that wisky can beat them through the air is just laughable.

Utah St @ Fresno St -21 - HAH! Bulldogs roll.

Louisiana Tech @ Idaho - insufficient value. LT has taken a step up this year, but Idaho at +4 won't give me even 2:1.

New Mexico @ TCU -4 - I'll be more likely to play the chalk than the dog here.

Washington -3 @ Stanford - lack of value.

Eastern Michigan +7@ Toledo - after last week's 70 point performance, this is a bit of an over-reaction. Toledo didn't suddenly get good...though they have put up some offense this year. NIU is simply that bad and worse. If I can get a bit over 250...like 280 or so...I'll take EMU. This is also Toledo, and after such a great performance last week, it should be expected that they follow it with a full-blown tank job. Don't be surprised if the rockets are up 17 going into the 4th, and then EMU actually wins outright...

Texas Tech -21 @ Baylor - not baylor.

Texas -3.5 @ Oklahoma St - I might have to consider the cowboys here.....tough team. And Texas has some issues closing out against what should be weaker teams. I will need a good bit more value, tho.

Missouri -4 @ Colorado - I dunno if this'll get into enough for me to bother with, but I want over 2:1.

Wake Forest -1.5 @ UVA - if Peerman is still out, I HAVE to consider playing Wake. This seems damned short to me... I would figure this to be about 5 or 6.

Syracuse @ Pitt -11.5 - Pitt's defense has progressed over the last month...since the navy game they've looked more than competent. And I'd expect pitt to wear em down by the 2H. Syracuse might look good early on, but I think they'll fade dramatically at the end.....even if they don't look good early on.

Florida St @ Boston College -6.5 - maybe this is a fair line......I dunno. But in any event, I think BC will win, and I don't think 2.5:1 is good enough to fade em.

Tulsa -6.5 @ Tulane - I'm going to have to look into this, because it just seems way too low. I'd figure on Tulsa by DD even though they love to give up yards and points....LOVE to...in any event, there's no chance I play Tulane ML unless there are significant injuries to several Tulsa offensive players.

Oregon St @ Southern Cal -15 - interesting line. I'll need a lot of value before I consider backing the beavers here...

Wyoming -3.5 @ SDSU - seems low. opinions welcomed, but I'll be looking at this one as a Wyoming spread play.

Washington St +14.5 @ California - I'm thinking this might be worthwhile....gotta look and see if I think wazzou can keep up with Cal's WRs...if so, 5:1 at least should be available.

Troy +15 @ Georgia - Troy is a good football team. Georgia's in a perfect sandwich spot between Florida and Auburn. And if UGA tries to put it in the air, Troy will eat them the alive...I'm not kidding. If I get near what I think I will for this one, I'll definitely bet it. I may still well lose it, but I think there's great value to be had here. I honesty think UGA shouldn't be but a 9 pt fave here...

UL Lafayette @ Tennessee -31 - too many points here. I think. UT will certainly win it, tho...

Middle Tennessee St @ UL Monroe +4 - I like this dog. But I think I want 2:1 for it, and I don't think I'll get it.

SMU @ Houston -18.5 - Can't back SMU. GL to those of you who are into it...
 
it's now monday, and I haven't seen any ML numbers yet.

angry.gif
 
Agree completely with your thoughts on the michigan/michigan state affair.

What number do you expect to see on oregon state.? Seems with their rush defense and usc wide receivers that this game might be a close one as usc struggles to score. How high would this have to be in order for for you to consider ?

gl this week RB
 
not enough value in bama to warrant a play. should be 10 - not 7.5 - the Oline suspensions are going to hurt this week.
 
Last edited:
Temple +250 -
angry.gif


Losing a point and a half in spread couldn't have helped this rip-off job...but still. I think 2.5:1 is excellent value for this one. I think Temple has at least a 45% chance of winning.

Akron +235 - another rip off, but it's still great for Akron vs BGSU.
 
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech - First off, I don't like this line at all. GT was a 6.5 fave at home to BC and VT was a 3pt fave to BC. That indicates 3 pts, but where the fuck is the homefield adjustment?

perhaps it's the two RBs that are out. Tashard Choice was hurt in the first half of the game against Army, and Rashaun Grant was hurt in the second half. Both will sit out this week against VPI.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/football/ncaa/10/20/choice.injury.ap/index.html

Understand, that article is over a week old, and while Grant said he'd be fine, he was wrong. He's in danger of missing the rest of the season.

http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegefootball/story/10433448/rss

At any rate, the question in my mind for this game really has very little to do with the offensive production. It'll be about defense and special teams TDs. The stars may align (as they did at VPI last week) so that each offense manages a TD drive or two, but more likely they'll push back and forth on the defenses for a few first downs each per quarter...it might be 6-3 or 6-6 at halftime. Hell, with these two shitass offenses and pretty good defenses it might be 4-2. But I think VPI's special teams gives them a slim to significant advantage...though not an extreme one.

now, I figured this one wouldn't ever get above 125, and with most folks betting down VPI, I was rather surprised to see the 130. I'm breaking my rule about not playing under 150 again, so be sure to bet on GT. It's about as close to a sure winner as I can offer anyone.

Virginia Tech +130
 
Ball St - 235, 230. That should be a bit higher. I'll wait.

Cincinnati - 180, 175. That's close...still not quite enough yet.

Vanderbilt - 650, 600....yeah. fuck that. I'll pass.

South Carolina - 180, 175. I'm seriously considering just taking this one. SC outgained Tenny by 184...they should outdo Arky by 250 or 300...and it may not get ANY better than this...thoughts anyone?
 
Navy +150 - Notre Dame is an absolute joke. They may win this game, but they'll have to stop the rush to do it, and at 94th in the league.....I can easily see Navy rolling up 400 yards rushing.

Notre Dame's offense might be able to get going this week as Navy's defense is almost as bad as NDs...though ND is ranked dead fucking last in the NCAA in offensive yards....

who knows? Maybe Navy's defense looks brilliant this week. In any case, this should be a very enjoyable game for Navy backers to watch.

I also didn't expect to get 150...and I doubt it goes up, so of course it will. Nonetheless, I'm going ahead and taking the play now.
 
Buffalo - 230......hmm...I want more than that. Not sure I'll get it, butI'm going to wait on this one. With some luck and some redhawk backers, this number will go up.

Eastern Michigan - 250, 245. I'm hoping for some Toledo love to push this one up. Numbers might even favor toledo here, so maybe even a Dr Bob play will push this up to 3:1...

hey, I can hope.

Oklahoma St - 140, 135. Ass. No play at that number...I was hoping for >150.

Oregon St - 550, 600. vegaskyle, this is about what I expected, and I want more. Losing to Oregon at Autzen isn't a really display of bad play by SC, imo.

Washington St - 600, 550. of course more is better...

Troy - 700.....that's alright...certainly worthwhile, I think. But the line has risen dramatically. I'd like to see much closer to 10:1 with a 16.5 to 17pt line.
 
Red- The Arky line looks to staying steady so I'd wait maybe a day or 2. That UT loss was tough mentally and SC is very young. It could be a good thing though, maybe they have short memories or it could be the type of loss that sends the rest of the season down the tubes. Had SC won that game, I would of already bet the GameCocks. I guess I'm waiting for some assurement from practice that these kids are focused this week. The 4 turnovers/game the last 2 weeks has to stop.
 
Oh Aztec...I'm not on Rutgers...or UConn...GL with that one.

Let's get some Nevada and Michigan, bro!
 
I'm pretty much just waiting on Eastern Michigan at this point. it's still at right around 2.5:1, and I was hoping for a bit more.

I'm also thinking more and more about betting Troy on the spread instead of the ML...or not betting it at all.

...Just not feelin the really big ones this week.
 
This is interesting.

http://www.charlotte.com/colleges/story/340562.html

Changes click for N.C. State DBs
Bye-week competition led to revamped lineup
CHIP ALEXANDER
(Raleigh) News & Observer

RALEIGH --
Much has been made of N.C. State's bye week, of how the resurgent Pack has responded with victories over East Carolina and Virginia.

Daniel Evans has been sharp at quarterback. Donald Bowens has become a big-play receiver. The defensive line is ringing up sacks -- six for the Pack in both games.

But the biggest change has been in State's secondary.

Cornerback Jeremy Gray said there was some "soul-searching" during the extra week of practice following the Pack's Oct. 6 game at Florida State. The competition was intense, and the composition of the defensive backfield had a major makeover.

Gray replaced Jimmie Sutton III in the starting lineup. Junior DaJuan Morgan was shifted from strong safety to free safety, replacing Miguel Scott. Redshirt freshman Javon Walker took over as the starter at strong safety.

Scott, a senior, was the most experienced player on the team, having started 27 of his last 28 games. Sutton, a redshirt senior, had 18 career starts.

Cornerback DeAndre Morgan, DaJuan's younger brother, got his first start at FSU. The redshirt freshman lines up to the wide side of the field, with Gray on the boundary side.

"We've got guys in the game doing things the way we want them to be done," NCSU coach Tom O'Brien said Monday.

"It stops the big plays, and the two safeties are our two best tacklers on the football team. They've made a lot of tackles that have prevented the long runs we gave up in the first six games, that change field position."

In the first six games, State's opponents averaged 226.5 rushing yards and 5.0 yards a carry. Clemson ran wild, piling up 340 yards in ripping the Pack 42-20.

"People were killing us with perimeter blocks and running," O'Brien said.

But the Pack limited ECU to 72 rushing yards in a 34-20 win, and then-No. 21 Virginia had 94 yards. The average per carry: 2.4 yards.

Under former coach Chuck Amato, the Pack relied on man coverage in the secondary. The cornerbacks' job was to stick with receivers.

"Last year it was like, 'I got him,' turn and run," O'Brien said.

Gray, a junior, has a far different responsibility: take on a tight end or tackle, hold his ground and support the run defense.

O'Brien said he used "old Chet Moeller films" during the bye week as a teaching aide. Moeller was a consensus All-America for Navy in 1975 -- a defensive back who was a sure tackler and a big hitter.

Apparently, it helped. Walker had 12 hits against ECU and Gray 10 against Virginia. DaJuan Morgan, who had 13 hits against the Cavaliers, was named the ACC's defensive back of the week.

But O'Brien, an old Navy man, also believes in an old football saying: "If you're thinking, you're stinking." He wanted less thinking and more reacting on defense. That meant some simplification.

After mixing man and zone defensive looks the first six games, the Pack is more of a zone team.

O'Brien said the Pack has been reacting much better.

"We've been taking better first steps, which makes us quicker to the football, which then closes down all those gaping holes," he said. "It takes away the rushing yards we've been giving up and forces people into passing."

NOTE: The N.C. State-North Carolina game on Nov. 10 will have a noon start, it was announced Monday.
Click to expand...
 
im liking ncsu red..this team is starting to click i think. i think we stay competitive in this one. plus dont discount all those florida boys we have on our team still that are from down in that area (eugene, morgans, bowens etc)
 
Not a criticism by any means, but is it time to start waiting for Bob's picks before putting these bets in? All he has been doing lately is betting favorites along with the occasional very small dog.
 
ETG, Yeah, I could be happier about that...it happens, tho.

Dmoney, No. I don't know how the hell he bets Ohio. It makes no logical sense to me in the least. I am reminded of when all his numbers told him BYU covers vs New Mexico, but essentially, he had a feeling, and he put a 2 star best bet on UNM. In short, I'm not sure what the fuck he's doing, but I do know that laying a ton of chalk in the MAC is a recipe for a bloody anus...and that's what he's done.

I am NOT predicting that anyone who should be smart will do that.

Now, as far as the South Carolina wager...I should have waited. Arky should have dominating numbers with the cream puffs the hogs have played. And if he's going by his numbers, then that should look pretty good to him. In any event, I'm okay with the number......just mad that I didn't remember I had already bet it and I bet it again at 200.

That's what happens when I don't get enough sleep.....my brain gets mangled. Fuck fuckity fuck fuck fuck. I'm going to treat it as just another bet, I guess.
 
thanks pags.

To say that I'm disappointed by tonight's results is a galactic understatement. Neither Akron nor Temple showed up at all, and Reno decided to putz around and piss away the cover in the 2H.....they damn near (and probably should have) lost the game.

I can get the value I wanted in EMU, but I'm not so sure I want to bother with any more CFB this weekend. Damn, I'm demoralized....
 
Its OK red. We are always gonna lose some. What matters is that in the long haul we win more than we lose and we certainly know how to do that !! We'll gettem today. :shake:
 
Sharky, GambleOn, thanks guys.

Okay, I'm over yesterday. It helps to get a few hours sleep...and I got the number I wanted. w00t. Go EMU.

Eastern Michigan +280
 
omg...I just looked at Troy. someone took every shred of value out of that. That's terrible. fuck. fuck fuck fuck. 5.6:1 is the best I see...and that's before MB's commission.

Someone must have heard that Haugabook is playing.
 
....not that I've heard he's playing. I have not. I simply think he's playing.

but it won't be for me with shitass numbers like that.

angry.gif
 
I didn't want to lay chalk with the Huskies, but I definitely like that power running game's chances.

Uconn pk -105
 
FYI, Peerman is out for the rest of the year for UVa, so you can factor that into your capping for them from here on out.
 
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