redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Okay, I've been doing some preliminary reading, but I've had several other issues recently that have put capping foots by the wayside. I have a couple weeks now, before the start of the season, and I'm going to look at quite a few games I think have some potential.
If you're into this style, you will get more out of reading what The Garfather has to say than what you will get out of anything I say. Still...perhaps more information and opinions are better than less.
Typically the crux of betting is to rely on consistency or reliability. I think of this differently, so some of my wagers may seem absolutely idiotic. Of note, I paid for a wager on Rice to win at Florida St last year, and of course I might as well have wiped my ass for a month with those dollars...
But my interest here is in making a wager on a team that yields value. If I have a 40% chance of win (devised by entirely my own scientific or irrational means), and I'm getting +200, then that would make some sense. I may well still lose, but my favorite wagers are getting a 50-50 or better shot at something and getting paid odds for it by the house. Last year in the futility bowl during week 1, I think, I had a wager on Temple at +214 visiting the goliath of ineptitude Buffalo. Now, yes, I gleefully wagered money on Temple, but I was getting over 2:1 on my money for what managed to be a 50-50 shot. Temple had repeated attempts at getting the ball into the endzone from inside the 5, but in a thrilling goal-line stand, Buffalo finally ended a 300 year old drought of home wins.
The entire school stormed the field, and my wagered funds on Temple withered away. That week I won 3, lost 6, and I Made Money.
That's what I try to do. I prey on the unexpected. I would not say I side with the the public, against the public, or with the house anymore than one would stand with the house by wagering on the Don't Pass line in Craps, but I find my odds of coming away with more money are better this way than trying to catch 60%. The Goal is to hit 38% ML dogs. Higher is of course better.
I like to keep an eye on the SunBelt and MAC conferences particularly - the SunBelt is too shitty to ever be reliable, and the MAC, frankly, is dirty. When Amato was at NC State, there was GREAT money to be made with the wolfpack playing Florida St (not so any longer). I tend to not take a wager on the headliner game of a day or weekend, though I did win a smidge on the FSU/Miami game last year.
I do not like taking MLs of less than +150. Okay, I don't like taking them for less than +200, but I do it because I should. 1.5:1 is damned good money over time. 1.2:1 or so...not so much.
College Football is played by children. Forgive me, gentlemen, to those of you who are of the same age. Please understand, you are likely not what I mean. Someone in college is normally being paid for by someone else. He does not feel the responsibility for himself because typically he is still being told what to do in a lot of ways. When he doesn't do it, he bangs 15 year old girls after getting them drunk. ...wasn't Marcus supposed to learn how to grow up from Mike? heh. In any event, the point is that an 18 to 21 year old boy is emotionally and intellectually fragile - he's still an adolescent. One bad play, one interception, one key fumble lost at the end of a long drive...any of these one events can thoroughly demoralize a team and lead directly to a loss. In short, a good football team can lose to a bad football team relatively easily. Consider how Michigan damn near lost to Ball State. Indeed, the Michigan St Spartans started off the year looking pretty good against, well, Idaho......but after melting down epically to Notre Dame at home, their entire season went to utter shit...losing the next week to Illinois. And by the time they went to Indiana and I got Indy at +260, it seemed like one of those damned near sure things that they'd shit themselves and lose.
So, in short, I measure risk to reward, remove outliers (I wouldn't usually bother to bet Ball St against Michigan - unless I'm a buckeye fan), and that means I'll eyeball things from about +150 to +1200 or so...at the max. Normally, it's up to around 500 or 600. I then remove what I think has no rational chance of winning.
Such as Buffalo at Rutgers. Maybe Barfalo +31.5 might be worth screwing with to some of you...not really to me.
But something like Miami Oh at Ball St for about 2:1 to win might be worth consideration.
Miami, OH +200
The redhawks have 14 returning starters including 8 on Offense. Last year at home, they outgained Ball St 359 to 226 yards, and they still managed to lose. Interestingly, the last 8 games have the Visitor winning 7 of them...for those in the bizarre and possibly useless stats department. Ball St is 2-9 in season openers, and last year they were 5-7 overall. Ball St is 6-2 in their last 8 MAC road games, but last year they also managed to lose to North Dakota St. Nate Davis may do well at QB for Ball St this year, but after the rest of the league saw what the Chippewas did to him, he had a rough time last year.
What does any of this mean? Not a whole fucklot at all. We shall see. In any event, This is the sort of game I look for. I may well play this one...not sure yet, but it's certainly on my radar screen.
Utah St at home +230 to UNLV might be worth messing with as well...
To round out Thursday...
Buffalo, Miss St, Kent St, and UL Monroe give me no interest whatsoever...unless Tulsa is much worse than I think, I may actually be on the chalk in that one.
Utah might be worth some consideration at over 300, but I doubt that'll show up...
for friday, Syracuse at 125 is devoid of bothersome value, and there's no way I'm going to fade Navy at Temple.
Saturday...I like GT to win. I do not like GT +125.
In the Hell Fucking No department, I'm not fading: West Virginia, VPI, Miami(FL), Nebraska, UCLA, TCU, Pitt, Oregon, Auburn, Minny, Wisky, USC, Penn St, Texas, Okiehomo, South Carolina, or Arkansas.
That's 17 that are right out from the beginning.
So I have to ponder betting on:
Alabama-Birmingham @ Michigan St - Spartans hungover from last year?
Duke at home to Connecticut - might the Blue Devils get a win.....?
Wyomingat home to Virginia - I'm still mad about losing this one (+320!)last yr in OT to a damned miss XP.
Northern Illinois at home to Iowa - ...maybe not.
Memphis at home to Ole Miss - but the value blows ass
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame - and without that useless fuck Reggie Ball
Illinois at home to Missouri - uh, very likely not
Wake Forest @ Boston College - this should be a great game and that often means I shouldn't be involved on the ML
Arizona @ BYU - not sure I want to be fading the mormons either...perhaps this should be on the above list
Army @ Akron - at this point, perhaps Army should be favored. Under may be the best play here.
Central FL @ NC State - I think the wolfpack should be MUCH better this year...doubt there'll be enough value in this one.
Okiehomo St @ Georgia - I actually may be on UGA chalk in this one...a TD strikes me as kinda light. Admittedly, I have not looked at this one too hard yet
Central Michigan @ Kansas - chippewas may be undervalued here. 275 seems awfully tastey...new coaching staff, tho
Colorado St @ Colorado - no value here, really...
Toledo at home to Purdue - will the new coach be as crooked as the old?
Tennessee @ California - vengeance is mine sayith the Vols. I assure you, my local boys remember last year...
UTEP at home to New Mexico - why not? because there's no fucking value...
San Jose St @ Arizona St - SJSU has a bizarre ability to shock and amaze from time to time...perhaps this is one of those. at +425, it might be worth the shot.
MTSU @ Florida Atlantic - I think MTSU should be favored.
I think I have no interest in fading Testicle Tech or FSU on Monday. Amato is back where he belongs co-ordinating a D for FSU. I expect big things out of the Seminoles this year. A certain loss to NCSU, for instance, won't be happening.
And SMU just doesn't give me a hard-on. I'd expect TT to win that one by DD.
I have played nothing as of yet..though I will likely play Miami, OH.
If you're into this style, you will get more out of reading what The Garfather has to say than what you will get out of anything I say. Still...perhaps more information and opinions are better than less.
Typically the crux of betting is to rely on consistency or reliability. I think of this differently, so some of my wagers may seem absolutely idiotic. Of note, I paid for a wager on Rice to win at Florida St last year, and of course I might as well have wiped my ass for a month with those dollars...
But my interest here is in making a wager on a team that yields value. If I have a 40% chance of win (devised by entirely my own scientific or irrational means), and I'm getting +200, then that would make some sense. I may well still lose, but my favorite wagers are getting a 50-50 or better shot at something and getting paid odds for it by the house. Last year in the futility bowl during week 1, I think, I had a wager on Temple at +214 visiting the goliath of ineptitude Buffalo. Now, yes, I gleefully wagered money on Temple, but I was getting over 2:1 on my money for what managed to be a 50-50 shot. Temple had repeated attempts at getting the ball into the endzone from inside the 5, but in a thrilling goal-line stand, Buffalo finally ended a 300 year old drought of home wins.
The entire school stormed the field, and my wagered funds on Temple withered away. That week I won 3, lost 6, and I Made Money.
That's what I try to do. I prey on the unexpected. I would not say I side with the the public, against the public, or with the house anymore than one would stand with the house by wagering on the Don't Pass line in Craps, but I find my odds of coming away with more money are better this way than trying to catch 60%. The Goal is to hit 38% ML dogs. Higher is of course better.
I like to keep an eye on the SunBelt and MAC conferences particularly - the SunBelt is too shitty to ever be reliable, and the MAC, frankly, is dirty. When Amato was at NC State, there was GREAT money to be made with the wolfpack playing Florida St (not so any longer). I tend to not take a wager on the headliner game of a day or weekend, though I did win a smidge on the FSU/Miami game last year.
I do not like taking MLs of less than +150. Okay, I don't like taking them for less than +200, but I do it because I should. 1.5:1 is damned good money over time. 1.2:1 or so...not so much.
College Football is played by children. Forgive me, gentlemen, to those of you who are of the same age. Please understand, you are likely not what I mean. Someone in college is normally being paid for by someone else. He does not feel the responsibility for himself because typically he is still being told what to do in a lot of ways. When he doesn't do it, he bangs 15 year old girls after getting them drunk. ...wasn't Marcus supposed to learn how to grow up from Mike? heh. In any event, the point is that an 18 to 21 year old boy is emotionally and intellectually fragile - he's still an adolescent. One bad play, one interception, one key fumble lost at the end of a long drive...any of these one events can thoroughly demoralize a team and lead directly to a loss. In short, a good football team can lose to a bad football team relatively easily. Consider how Michigan damn near lost to Ball State. Indeed, the Michigan St Spartans started off the year looking pretty good against, well, Idaho......but after melting down epically to Notre Dame at home, their entire season went to utter shit...losing the next week to Illinois. And by the time they went to Indiana and I got Indy at +260, it seemed like one of those damned near sure things that they'd shit themselves and lose.
So, in short, I measure risk to reward, remove outliers (I wouldn't usually bother to bet Ball St against Michigan - unless I'm a buckeye fan), and that means I'll eyeball things from about +150 to +1200 or so...at the max. Normally, it's up to around 500 or 600. I then remove what I think has no rational chance of winning.
Such as Buffalo at Rutgers. Maybe Barfalo +31.5 might be worth screwing with to some of you...not really to me.
But something like Miami Oh at Ball St for about 2:1 to win might be worth consideration.
Miami, OH +200
The redhawks have 14 returning starters including 8 on Offense. Last year at home, they outgained Ball St 359 to 226 yards, and they still managed to lose. Interestingly, the last 8 games have the Visitor winning 7 of them...for those in the bizarre and possibly useless stats department. Ball St is 2-9 in season openers, and last year they were 5-7 overall. Ball St is 6-2 in their last 8 MAC road games, but last year they also managed to lose to North Dakota St. Nate Davis may do well at QB for Ball St this year, but after the rest of the league saw what the Chippewas did to him, he had a rough time last year.
What does any of this mean? Not a whole fucklot at all. We shall see. In any event, This is the sort of game I look for. I may well play this one...not sure yet, but it's certainly on my radar screen.
Utah St at home +230 to UNLV might be worth messing with as well...
To round out Thursday...
Buffalo, Miss St, Kent St, and UL Monroe give me no interest whatsoever...unless Tulsa is much worse than I think, I may actually be on the chalk in that one.
Utah might be worth some consideration at over 300, but I doubt that'll show up...
for friday, Syracuse at 125 is devoid of bothersome value, and there's no way I'm going to fade Navy at Temple.
Saturday...I like GT to win. I do not like GT +125.
In the Hell Fucking No department, I'm not fading: West Virginia, VPI, Miami(FL), Nebraska, UCLA, TCU, Pitt, Oregon, Auburn, Minny, Wisky, USC, Penn St, Texas, Okiehomo, South Carolina, or Arkansas.
That's 17 that are right out from the beginning.
So I have to ponder betting on:
Alabama-Birmingham @ Michigan St - Spartans hungover from last year?
Duke at home to Connecticut - might the Blue Devils get a win.....?
Wyomingat home to Virginia - I'm still mad about losing this one (+320!)last yr in OT to a damned miss XP.
Northern Illinois at home to Iowa - ...maybe not.
Memphis at home to Ole Miss - but the value blows ass
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame - and without that useless fuck Reggie Ball
Illinois at home to Missouri - uh, very likely not
Wake Forest @ Boston College - this should be a great game and that often means I shouldn't be involved on the ML
Arizona @ BYU - not sure I want to be fading the mormons either...perhaps this should be on the above list
Army @ Akron - at this point, perhaps Army should be favored. Under may be the best play here.
Central FL @ NC State - I think the wolfpack should be MUCH better this year...doubt there'll be enough value in this one.
Okiehomo St @ Georgia - I actually may be on UGA chalk in this one...a TD strikes me as kinda light. Admittedly, I have not looked at this one too hard yet
Central Michigan @ Kansas - chippewas may be undervalued here. 275 seems awfully tastey...new coaching staff, tho
Colorado St @ Colorado - no value here, really...
Toledo at home to Purdue - will the new coach be as crooked as the old?
Tennessee @ California - vengeance is mine sayith the Vols. I assure you, my local boys remember last year...
UTEP at home to New Mexico - why not? because there's no fucking value...
San Jose St @ Arizona St - SJSU has a bizarre ability to shock and amaze from time to time...perhaps this is one of those. at +425, it might be worth the shot.
MTSU @ Florida Atlantic - I think MTSU should be favored.
I think I have no interest in fading Testicle Tech or FSU on Monday. Amato is back where he belongs co-ordinating a D for FSU. I expect big things out of the Seminoles this year. A certain loss to NCSU, for instance, won't be happening.
And SMU just doesn't give me a hard-on. I'd expect TT to win that one by DD.
I have played nothing as of yet..though I will likely play Miami, OH.
