CFB ML Dogs Week 1 2007

[redbearde]

Central Michigan +282 - I lost 8 cents since yesterday, but in talking with KOAJ and macdamn I finally talked myself into playing this one...here's some of my recent thoughts...

CMU might be the best risk/reward - they do have an offense which could be damned prolific....especially against the MAC, and Kansas may not do so well in the Big12, but they are still a big12 school...I dunno. CMU does have a bunch of upperclassmen on the O-Line...You would be getting 3:1. So if you think you've got a 35-40% chance to win it with CMU, then it works out well...I just don't know.

In the opener last year CMU was +11 hosting Boston College....and they did hang with em through most of the game...covering.....but ultimately losing...

damnit, I'm talking myself into it. FUCK.

and

Jesus...Kansas lost their entire O-line after last year.

Damnit. KOAJ, why you do this to me...?

I'm starting to like CMU a lot...fuck fuckity fuck fuck fuck.

kansas' pass defense was AWFUL last year

i have a man crush on dan lefevour (CMU-QB)

At any rate, between Kansas losing the entire O-Line and Central Michigan retaining a LOT of talent from last year......I think I gotta give CMU a shot at $2.82.

 

[redbearde]

I'm also taking Notre Dame/Georgia Tech Under 46 (-115 MB).

This is essentially based on the Defenses being better than last year (GT returns damned near everyone), Reggie Ball being gone so with any luck the obligatory 1 or 2 pick6s won't be an issue...and the high powered offense the Irish had last year is pretty much all gone.

...and even when they were there LY they only put up 14. Maybe they score a few more, but something like 24-21 strikes me as an absolute worst-case scenario, and much lower than that strikes me as likely.

if trends mean anything to you...

Under is 5-0 in Yellow Jackets last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 6-0 in Yellow Jackets last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 22-8-1 in Yellow Jackets last 31 games as an underdog.
Under is 11-4 in Yellow Jackets last 15 road games.
Under is 19-7 in Yellow Jackets last 26 games on Grass.
Under is 8-3 in Yellow Jackets last 11 games as a road underdog.
Under is 11-5-1 in Yellow Jackets last 17 games in September.
Under is 17-8 in Yellow Jackets last 25 non-conference games.

Over is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 home games.
Under is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 vs. ACC.

 

[redbearde]

Virginia -3 (+104)

perhaps there's some key info I've missed, but this line has plummeted, and I'm not letting it pass. Initially I liked Wyoming, but this year isn't last year, and UVA should be vastly improved.

 

[redbearde]

Mizzu 2H +.5 -110

go team.