Carolinablue Week 7 College Football

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Ugly ugly ugly Week 6 is all I can say. Finished the day 6-9 overall, losing -5.25 units, ouch! Couple that with the beatdown suffered by my Heels and it wasn't exactly a Happy Birthday to me, but still have the head above water as we are at the halfway point of the season, so could be a lot worse I suppose. Overthought things a bit too much in Week 6, so this week just going to trust my numbers and not let any distractions talk me out of or on to plays that don't make the cut.

Year to Date 34-28 +1.214 units

Week 7 Plays
Football - 200 Washington State -3 -130 buying -½ for Game
Football - 175 Alabama -9 -110 for Game
Football - 142 Clemson -16½ -115 for Game
Football - 190 Middle Tennessee -2 -110 for Game
Football - 162 Marshall -11½ -115 for Game
Football - 187 FIU -5 -115 for Game
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 158 Air Force -13½ -115 for GAME
Football - 135 Illinois -6 -110 for Game
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 173 Kent State -½ -130 buying -1 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 171 Central Michigan -2½ -115 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 137 Iowa State +14½ -130 buying -1 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 163 Georgia Southern +11½ -130 buying -1 for GAME
5D - 10/15/16 4:30pm College Football 182 Colorado -9½ -120* vs Arizona State

SMALL ML DOG PLAYS - each risking 0.1

ULL +330
Fresno +535
Buffalo +340
UMass +475
Purdue +375
ISU +405
KSU +340
UConn +725
Akron +370
GSO +340
G State +575
 
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WSU line moved twice between the time I hit submit and confirm as I originally had it at 2.5 then it jumped twice before being confirmed at 3 130. I expected this one to be closer to 7.5 given Rosen status for UCLA so while not ideal at 130, decided to jump on the 3 as I see this line going nowhere but up this week.
 
Nice grab on Wazzou. I think you just capitalized on a mistake by them for sure. No clue why they would line that early with Rosen status uncertain.
 
ROANOKE RAPIDS, N.C. - The East Carolina football team had a rough night trying to get back to Greenville after Saturday’s loss to South Florida.

The Pirates fell, 38-22, at South Florida on Saturday. The team flew down Thursday to avoid Hurricane Matthew then had to fly back Saturday night. Instead of returning to Greenville, the team flight was diverted to Richmond, Va. with busses scheduled to bring the team back to Greenville.

The drive back from Virginia didn’t go quite as planned and the team was forced to stay at a Super 8 Motel outside of Roanoke Rapids, according to Pirate Radio 1250/930 AM's Troy Dreyfus.

ECU has a short week with Navy next on the schedule this Thursday at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium Thursday night. Navy upset previously unranked No. 6 Houston on Saturday.
 
TEMPE, Ariz. — What a difference a couple of months can make.

When Todd Graham’s Arizona State Sun Devils opened camp over the summer, they had an open quarterback competition with redshirt sophomore Manny Wilkins and redshirt freshmen Brady White and Bryce Perkins as the three contenders. Highly-touted true freshman Dillon Sterling-Cole was thought to be more of a “quarterback of the future” for ASU.

Perkins suffered a serious neck injury in camp and it was Wilkins who emerged as the starter with White as the backup heading into the season.

After Saturday’s 23-20 win over UCLA that boosted the Sun Devils’ record to 5-1 overall and 2-1 in Pac-12 play, things look a lot different.

Brady White made his first collegiate start in place of Manny Wilkins, who left last week’s loss at USC in the second quarter with a leg injury. White struggled for a good portion of his Tempe debut but completed 19-of-36 passes for 179 yards and a touchdown.

But he wouldn’t be able to finish the game. With 6:24 left in the fourth quarter and ASU leading 23-20, White tried extending what looked to be a broken play on 1st-and-10 at the UCLA 11-yard line. Kenny Young sacked him for a loss of four yards and appeared to land on the quarterback’s ankle and foot while pulling him down on the sideline. White got up, limped for a few steps and then slumped back down to the turf. He was helped off the field and immediately went to the ASU locker room on crutches.

With Wilkins already unavailable, Graham was faced with the possibility of utilizing the “Sparky” formation with Kalen Ballage at the controls. Arizona State used that formation on occasion Saturday and has had success with it. The other choice was to bring in Sterling-Cole and burn the freshman’s redshirt.

That’s what Graham chose.

Sterling-Cole entered in a pressure-packed situation with ASU facing a 2nd-and-14 at the 15-yard line. An ASU touchdown would have pushed their lead to ten, possibly securing the win. A field goal would have pressured UCLA to score a touchdown to win. Sterling-Cole handed off on 2nd down, and Kalen Ballage gained six yards.

ASU wouldn’t play it safe with a freshman taking his second collegiate snap — Sterling-Cole looped a ball into the end zone, trying to put the game out of reach. Instead, his pass was intercepted by Adarius Pickett.

UCLA wouldn’t do anything with their next possession and punted. ASU opted to use Ballage at quarterback for their next three plays, which came on their last possession of the game.

What it boils down to is Graham and his staff opted to burn Sterling-Cole’s redshirt for two plays. Unless, of course, the White injury is serious and Wilkins isn’t ready to return next Saturday in a road game at Colorado.

“None,” Graham answered when asked what kind of update he could provide on White’s injury. “I don’t know — I mean I do know, but I’m not going to say anything right now.”

Later in his postgame press conference, however, Graham did talk about the decision to use Sterling-Cole, burning his redshirt. He said offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey wanted to use Ballage at quarterback just to get through the game and to keep Sterling-Cole’s redshirt possibility alive.

“I wanted to find out what Brady’s status was because we had quite a bit of time left in the game, before we put Dillon in, because we didn’t want to burn his redshirt if (Brady) was going to be okay,” he said. “If he was going to be okay, then we were going to go with the ‘Sparky,’ but he wasn’t going to be okay, we knew he was out for the game for sure, so I wanted to go with Dillon.”

Graham didn’t offer who would be starting at quarterback next week but did hint that Sterling-Cole could be pressed into action against the Buffaloes.

“The best thing is to get him in there and get him going, because he’s going to have to get ready now.”

If White is out and Wilkins doesn’t return, Sterling-Cole would start and Jack Smith, a freshman who is the son of ASU baseball head coach Tracy Smith, would serve as his backup.
 
Middle Tennessee is off to its best start under head coach Rick Stockstill.

The Blue Raiders' 4-1 record is the result of good play in all facets of the game. With five contests in the books, MT ranks 10th in the nation in total offense (528 yards per game) and 47th in total defense (370 yards allowed per game) to go along with other strong statistical categories.

MT ranks in the top three of C-USA teams in many defensive categories, including scoring defense (23 points per game), rush defense (150 yards per game) and total defense (370 yards per game).

Teams have just a 69.6-percent scoring success rate against MT's defense in the red zone, good for 18th in the NCAA. The defense was fourth nationally in this category last season.

Opposing teams have only scored 16 times on 23 attempts in the red zone (10 TDs, six FGs) this season against Middle Tennessee's defense. The key here is only 10 TDs in 23 attempts.

Opposing offenses have also had trouble scoring on Middle Tennessee in the second half of games this season. Through five contests the Blue Raiders have only given up 34 points in the second half, just seven of which came in the third quarter.

Other notable team rankings
34th in the country, third in C-USA in third down conversion percentage against at 32.9 percent.
32nd in the country, fourth in C-USA in sacks per game with 2.8.
Fourth in C-USA in sacks with 14 for 70 yds.
 
Just a reminder that the Air Force vs NM game will be at the Cotton Bowl this weekend as part of the Texas state fair, so not a home game for the Falcons even though they are listed as the home team.
 
Expecting AFA by 20+ so will still be a play if is stays at 13.5 115, as I expect this line to soon cross 14 and maybe move towards 17 by game time.
 
CFB: No. 25 Navy's game Thursday at East Carolina postponed to Nov. 19 due to expected flooding from Hurricane Matthew
 
Hey CB, hope you're doing well and good luck with week 7.

Just FYI on the MWC game...Bob Davie knows how to defend the option pretty well and is 4-0 ATS v the Flyboys with a couple outright upsets.
 
Good stuff CB, appreciate all the info.
Really like Navy Wash State and will check into the others more.
Hope you have a big bounce back week, just go ahead and win em all.
 
horses said:
Hey CB, hope you're doing well and good luck with week 7.

Just FYI on the MWC game...Bob Davie knows how to defend the option pretty well and is 4-0 ATS v the Flyboys with a couple outright upsets.
Click to expand...

I actually like the fact that NM won SU last year coupled with the AFA loss vs Wyoming this week as I think it helped bring the line back to a manageable number at open. NM has really struggled away from home and I expect AFA to have a solid crowd down in Texas while NM isn't exactly known for bringing a crowd. Should be a nice spot for AFA to get back on track as NM as the big difference for me in this one is the fact that AFA's defense > NM defense in pretty much all aspects of the game, not to mention the fact that NM will actually make AFA look like a decent passing team because NM is pretty anemic with their dink and dunk type of passing game that amount to about 6yds per attempt give or take.
 
Here are some ML Dogs that are on my radar screen. Was thinking about finding 8 solid ML dogs (would play at 0.125 unit each for a total of 1 unit risked across the total card) at +300 or better just from an ROI standpoint, as that would equal profit if I can hit at least 2 out of the 8 pack. Just a thought at this point so definitely open to feedback...

Home Dogs
Buffalo +320
UMass +495
Purdue +380
Akron +340
Wisky +300
Tenn +400

Road Dogs
Kan State +340
Ga So +340
Ga State +515

Thoughts???
 
the road dogs are tempting, don' t like UMass, akron or vols but u never know, GL this week
 
Just added some small and I do mean small (risking 0.1 each) ML DOG plays to the card. If I was smart I would ML parlay all the opposing favs as you know this experiment has 0-fer written all over it haha
 
Added three more to the card...

Ga Southern +11.5 130
Iowa State +14.5 130
CMU -2.5 115
 
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12 plays total this week combined with a total 1 unit risked on the ML dogs.

Will be gone all day Saturday so hoping to come back in the evening to a strong early start on the spread plays and with a few dogs winning out of the gate.

Hope you guys that are rolling keep the streaks going and that those of you who had a rough week like me are able to bounce back in a big way Saturday!

CB
 
No ML offered on the Kent game so just laying the 130 to get to a ML play.


Mobile - FOOTBALL - 173 Kent State -½ -130 buying -1 for GAME

Big 13 game card today, best of luck to everyone out there on this glorious Saturday!
 
Good luck on all CB
Like the ML strategy and on ISU GaSouthern with you and likely smaller on UConn and WF
 
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