Carolinablue Week 2 Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Week 1 Results --> 18-14 +2.74 units
Year to Date Results --> 18-18 -1.89 units

Week 2 Plays

Friday 9/6
9pm Northwestern +1.5 110 (FD)

Saturday 9/7
12pm UConn -13.5 128 (BM)
12pm Rutgers -25.5 110 (FD)
12pm Tulane +11.5 129 (BM)
12pm Arkansas/Oklahoma State o57.5 115 (FD)
12pm Syracuse +4.5 135 (BM)

2pm Ball State ML 138 (FD)
2pm Tenn Tech +63.5 110 (MyBookie)
2:30pm Kent -13.5 131 (MyBookie)
3:30pm Navy -11.5 122 (BM) - 2 units (-12 118 also)
3:30pm NIU +30.5 136 (FD)
3:30pm UNC -20.5 115 (FD)
3:30pm Louisville -25.5 115 (FD)
3:30pm Stonehill +12.5 110 (MB)
3:30pm Toledo -19.5 110 (FD)

6pm NCCU +5.5 110 (FD)
7pm ULL -13.5 128 (BM)
7pm Lamar -21.5 110 (FD)
7pm Montana State -24.5 110 (FD)
7pm EIU -4.5 110 (FD)
7pm Tarleton State -8.5 110 (FD)
7pm Tulsa +7.5 115 (FD)
7pm Kansas -4 123 (BM)
7pm UAB -10.5 122 (BM)
7pm Howard -30.5 110 (MB)
7:30pm Tenn/NC State o56.5 110 (FD)
 
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I like my Heels up to probably 26.5 but would have played it up to 23.5 which is where I think it eventually settles in at.

Tulsa I like as a dog as I think they win SU in what should be a back and forth highly competitive game.
 
Week 1 to Date 17-13 2.74 units w/ the over to go in the USC game.

Line now at 66 which is what I predicted it would land at months ago, even when it started dropping down towards 60 early on. I like my 62.5 but as I think I said back then I would play it up to about 66 or so with no hesitation.
 
12pm Rutgers -25.5 110 (FD)

Don’t think this one gets under 24 so figured might as well take it now as it is more like to hit 27+ than <24. Would play it up to 27.5.
 
carolinablue said:
7:30pm NC State/Tenn o56.5 110
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Not gonna overreact and say Tenny destroys State just because of what went down Saturday.

Even though the spread is tempting, I actually like the over better, as I see this one playing into the 30’s as State won’t have as many dropped passes and Tenny should dominate in the trenches leading to chunk plays galore. Should be a fun one in Charlotte.
 
Bookmaker is up…took these 4

12pm Tulane +11.5 129
3:30pm Navy -11.5 122
7pm Kansas -4 123
7pm UAB -10.5 122
 
3:30pm Louisville -25.5 115 (FD)

Not in love with the 25.5 given that I could have had 21.5 earlier if I hadn't stepped away for a while, but gonna go ahead and lock it in as I expect this one to hit 28 or more by Saturday, so don't want to cross another number since I missed out on the cross at 24. Watched pretty much the entire Louisvlle game (I know, but I had em at 29.5) and really liked what I saw and after also subjecting myself to that Jax State game (Had em ML) on Thursday, I just don't see how they can keep up when all is said and done. I expect Louisville to be good for at least 45 so thinking 45-17 worst case, which is why I don't want to wait any longer. As I type this, just saw BOL move to 28 and BM move to 27.5.
 
Sitting at about 11 points of line value vs opens so will see if it makes a difference in week 2. Got helped in a few games week 1 (ie Memphis at 38.5 vs close at 40.5 to 41.5 as an example), so will try to track on a weekly basis when I can.
 
Just in case anyone is wondering, the Navy play at 2 units was a mistake as I somehow played it at both 11.5 and 12 without realizing it. The joys of getting older haha
 
Leaning USU at 28.5 as I think the running game may be able to do enough to give Barnes some opportunities if he gets the start in week 2. Will see how the line moves this week…
 
Carolina Guy said:
you got some nice numbers for the coming week. Get it!
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Thanks man! Definitely a new world when places like FD start posting lines for week 2 on Saturday, as I was so used to stalking offshores Sunday afternoon to the point where my wife knew to leave me alone starting around 3pm every Sunday haha.

Feel like I got decent line value for week 2 but of course my mind is hung up on the bad Rutgers line I locked in early as I thought for sure it would go up instead of down.

Nice start to the season on your part, hope you finish week 1 strong by nailing your prop tonight!
 
carolinablue said:
I like my Heels up to probably 26.5 but would have played it up to 23.5 which is where I think it eventually settles in at.

Tulsa I like as a dog as I think they win SU in what should be a back and forth highly competitive game.
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Really liking Tulsa as well.. not sure Ark St should be laying a TD vs any FBS squad, esp one with a good O.. Wilson is a solid coach too
 
satnightfever05 said:
Really liking Tulsa as well.. not sure Ark St should be laying a TD vs any FBS squad, esp one with a good O.. Wilson is a solid coach too
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Yeah, actually considered the over but couldn’t pass up the points as I see this one as a 3-4 point game either way. Looking forward to catching it as it should be a fun back and forth battle.
 
@s--k has some interesting stuff in his thread around under the radar games, so make sure you drop in there as it is a must read for me every week.

He also did a breakdown of his Week 0/1 action at each book and I found it interesting, so decided to do the same as I was curious...Would be interested to know how some of you other guys here in the thread spread your action across all the various options these days, so feel free to drop your breakdown in the thread if you want.

FanDuel (22) - 61.1%
BookMaker (6) - 16.7%
Fanatics (3) - 8.3%
Draft Kings (3) - 8.3%
Bet365 (2) - 5.6%

Note: I already cashed out at DK due to limits, so won't be using those moving forward. Also, don't expect to be using Fanatics or 365 much if at all, except for if they post an off line for some reason, but I do have my UNC ML vs Duke future play hanging out there at 365.

So far in Week 2, it is pretty evenly split, with 8 at FD and 6 at BM.
 
B.A.R. said:
Not too many do the early stalking better...
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carolinablue said:
Just to clarify for those who may have joined late….we are referring to cfb opening lines, nothing else!
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x2 on the stalking. Atleast for the opening lines. Last year I'd be online and looking at all the same sites you were and waiting for the numbers and then you would post what you played and I was like 'hey, I didn't even see that yet' - and then it already moved off your action ;)
 
s--k said:
x2 on the stalking. Atleast for the opening lines. Last year I'd be online and looking at all the same sites you were and waiting for the numbers and then you would post what you played and I was like 'hey, I didn't even see that yet' - and then it already moved off your action ;)
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Yeah last year was crazy as lines were moving 6-7 points at BM so for every one I got, one of you guys would snag a game I missed as it was tough to get em all.
 
carolinablue said:
@s--k has some interesting stuff in his thread around under the radar games, so make sure you drop in there as it is a must read for me every week.

He also did a breakdown of his Week 0/1 action at each book and I found it interesting, so decided to do the same as I was curious...Would be interested to know how some of you other guys here in the thread spread your action across all the various options these days, so feel free to drop your breakdown in the thread if you want.

FanDuel (22) - 61.1%
BookMaker (6) - 16.7%
Fanatics (3) - 8.3%
Draft Kings (3) - 8.3%
Bet365 (2) - 5.6%

Note: I already cashed out at DK due to limits, so won't be using those moving forward. Also, don't expect to be using Fanatics or 365 much if at all, except for if they post an off line for some reason, but I do have my UNC ML vs Duke future play hanging out there at 365.

So far in Week 2, it is pretty evenly split, with 8 at FD and 6 at BM.
Click to expand...
Good stuff, love it.
 
My bookie has lifted limits on my account but are maintaining restrictions on bonuses, as they will not be allowed on any deposits. I can actually live with that as the limits were the pain point for me but now without them, I am considering dropping a token amount in and seeing if I can take advantage of some of their outlier lines in week 2 once they post in the am. Right now have only FD and BM in week 2, but wouldn’t mind having a sleepier book that is slow to adjust lines after opens as that is when I do some of my best work. Stay tuned…
 
carolinablue said:
Appreciate you dropping in the thread CPA. I thought about the 3.5 but don’t mind paying the juice at BM to capture certain key numbers and I think this one is a 1-4 point game either way, so don’t wanna get burned on 31-27 type final.
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You did great there, feels exactly like that to me where it a coin flip who wins now but +4.5 should be money. Think I’m at point there a cuse prop I feel like wins if they win, wins if it close and hopefully long before the 4th qrtr! Lol
 
carolinablue said:
Dropped some cash into MB last night as I am no longer limited but am restricted from earning bonuses on my deposits. Gonna hopefully take advantage of their FCS and Team Total stuff before they shut me down again.
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MB is one strange bird, man. They let me bet horses again, but $1 at a time. So say I wanted to bet $50 on a horse to win, I'd have to punch $1 to win and press submit 50 seperate times.

GL this week. Joined you on Kent St.
 
CPA-hole said:
MB is one strange bird, man. They let me bet horses again, but $1 at a time. So say I wanted to bet $50 on a horse to win, I'd have to punch $1 to win and press submit 50 seperate times.

GL this week. Joined you on Kent St.
Click to expand...
I see Kent is now up to 16...I would play it up to 19.5 actually so couldn't pass up the opening line as they should win by 21+
 
FCS action...

6pm NCCU +5.5 110 (FD)
7pm Montana State -24.5 110 (FD)
7pm EIU -4.5 110 (FD)
7pm Tarleton State -8.5 110 (FD)
 
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