Carolinablue Week 1 Line Projections

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Figured I would get in on all the fun by having you guys rip apart my projections on what I think the lines will be in week 1. Note that these are not reflective of what I think of either team, but rather what I think the lines will be set at in order to draw even action on both sides. After completing my lines, I went through some of the others on the site and noticed that some of mine are pretty different, so feel free to add in your comments as to which lines you think are spot on and which are far off.

Again, these are what I am predicting we will see at open. Since I was bored, I actually did every single game on the opening card, including all 1-A vs 1-AA matchups as well, since some of those are sure to end up being lined at 5dimes.

All projected week 1 lines to be posted below. Let me know what you guys think!
 
Thursday 8/30/07

ULM +1.5 vs Tulsa
Rutgers -28.5 vs Buffalo
Ball State +1 vs Miami OH
Cincy -24 vs SE MO ST
Louisville -52 vs Murray State
ISU -6.5 vs Kent State
Miss St +21.5 vs LSU
NMSU -24.5 vs SELA
Utah State PK vs UNLV
Boise -35 vs Weber
Oregon State -7.5 vs Utah
 
Saturday 9/1/07

USF -31 vs Elon
MSU -24.5 vs UAB
Michigan -28.5 vs App State
Ohio State -26 vs YSU
PSU -35.5 vs FIU
VT -30.5 vs ECU
Miami -21.5 vs Marshall
S.C. -35.5 vs ULL
Northwestern -17.5 vs Northeastern
Alabama -41 vs WCU
Colorado PK vs CSU in Denver
Texas -45.5 vs Arkansas State
AFA -26 vs SCSU
Wyoming +4.5 vs UVA
Duke +7.5 vs UConn
BC -6.5 vs Wake
Nebraska -23 vs Nevada
Memphis -3 vs Ole Miss
WVU -26.5 vs WMU
Illinois +6.5 vs Missouri in St Louis
NIU +17.5 vs Iowa
Oregon -17.5 vs Houston
ND -2.5 vs GT
Wisconsin -14.5 vs WSU
Stanford +21.5 vs UCLA
FAU -2.5 vs MTSU
BYU -3 vs Arizona
Florida -41 vs WKU
Maryland -24.5 vs Villanova
TCU -21.5 vs Baylor
UNC -8.5 vs JMU
NCSU -7.5 vs UCF
Pitt -21.5 vs EMU
Kentucky -34 vs EKU
Georgia -7.5 vs OSU
Ohio -35 vs Gardner Webb
Akron -4.5 vs Army
Arkansas -24.5 vs Troy
Vandy -29 vs Richmond
Oklahoma -41 vs North Texas
A&M -31 vs Montana State
Toledo +6.5 vs Purdue
Kansas -8.5 vs CMU
La Tech -20 vs Central Arkansas
So Miss -26 vs Tenn Martin
Auburn -14.5 vs KSU
Rice -29 vs Nicholls State
Minnesota -17.5 vs BGSU
Cal -6 vs Tenn
Indiana -6.5 vs Indy State
ASU -17.5 vs SJSU
UTEP PK vs New Mex
Fresno -35.5 vs Sac State
USC -48.5 vs Idaho
Hawaii -53.5 vs No. Colorado

Monday 9/3/07

SMU +13.5 vs Texas Tech
Clemson +3.5 vs FSU
 
Notice that I think the favs will be laying more points than most have predicted with their opening lines. This is mainly due to the fact that I think the books are gonna have to make some of these big dogs very attractive in order to draw even action, so I would not be surprised to see some higher than usual lines in week 1, as year in and year out, there are a select number of big favs that cover the number with at least 10-15 points to spare even when they are laying huge already. This year, I think the books make the lines a little tighter in week 1 in order to cut down on this, which means that they won't shy away from lines in the high 40's or maybe even low 50's, but guess we will see in a few weeks one way or the other.
 
Thanks for the projections CB. The only one that I have a siginificant disagreement on as of right now is Kansas -8.5. I think it should be in the 4-4.5 area.
 
Dmoney416 said:
I hope ULM catches at least a FG.
Click to expand...

Dmoney - I think the books will tease us with a line like 1.5 or 2 as I know many will probably jump on the live home dog if the line comes out at 3 or 3.5 which I don't think it will. I could see the public jumping on Tulsa early though, just because it is opening night and more people know Tulsa than ULM, so it could hit 3 later in the week, but if it does, I think many will jump all over it and send it back down to 2 quickly.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Thanks for the projections CB. The only one that I have a siginificant disagreement on as of right now is Kansas -8.5. I think it should be in the 4-4.5 area.
Click to expand...

I hear what you are saying. The reason I think this one will be somewhere in the 7.5 to 8.5 range is because if it is under a TD, I think the action will be too one sided on KU as the public will view this as a potential steal with the Big12 going up against the MAC. Again, this has nothing to do with my opinion on either team, just trying to figure out what I think the books will do. Thanks for the input. Always cool to talk cfb any time of day or night.
 
carolinablue said:
Dmoney - I think the books will tease up with a line like 1.5 or 2 as I know many will probably jump on the live home dog if the line comes out at 3 or 3.5 which I don't think it will. I could see the public jumping on Tulsa early though, just because it is opening night and more people know Tulsa than ULM, so it could hit 3 later in the week, but if it does, I think many will jump all over it and send it back down to 2 quickly.
Click to expand...

Agreed. And for the record, I think that your line is right, I just want it to be wrong. :cheers:
 
carolinablue said:
I hear what you are saying. The reason I think this one will be somewhere in the 7.5 to 8.5 range is because if it is under a TD, I think the action will be too one sided on KU as the public will view this as a potential steal with the Big12 going up against the MAC. Again, this has nothing to do with my opinion on either team, just trying to figure out what I think the books will do. Thanks for the input. Always cool to talk cfb any time of day or night.
Click to expand...

If the books think about it in this way, I wouldn't be surprised to see them simply open the line at 7. The may be the safe way out while avoiding too much action on either side of this one.
 
I think if they open it at 7, you will see a lot of people jump on the 6.5 120 line as they will perceive it as a strong value getting less than a TD, even at the 10cent premium. Games like this one are always tough but as of right now it will be a pass for me unless it opened at something crazy like 3, then I would take my chances with KU.
 
Scary. You and I must be sharing the same brain because almost all of these are right in the ballpark of what I am thinking. Of the different predictions I have seen so far, yours collectively matches mine more closely than anyone else's to date at either covers or here.

The only one that I think needs adjustment by more than a field goal would be the NC State number which I think you left short. Being still mid-July I don't think its totally unreasonable that we are off by up to 3 points on some of them.

I should clarify that I don't make lines or handicap any game involving a D1-AA team, so maybe some of those would be different, but I don't have lines for them. On the D1A vs D1A games we are really close bro.
 
I doubt nebraska will open up at 20 or higher even though they should. we are pretty close on our expectations on most of these. not long until we get to see ther real deal !
 
I just got the Steele Pac 10 regional mag in the mail the other day, so I'll be looking at some of these 1-AA teams throughout the year and see if I can find any good bets...
 
Nice job CB.

I know this is what you think lines will be but would like some insight into Michigan St-UAB. I perosnally think it will open closer to 20.

Dankya
 
Hey BAR,
That msu uab game is one that I will have to watch and not invest in. UAB by most publications and most cappers on this site have fallen off dramatically and I think when talking about that big of a decline I want to see it befoe I bet it. I feel confident with msu being a team around the 65th to 70th in power rankings. I just find it hard to play a team in that range at minus over 3tds very often (though i doubt it will be that high). My lack of confidence on what UAB brings to the table makes this a no bet for me. can i get your take on this game again ?
 
Well kyle,

UAB lost 31 letterman, is breaking in a new coach and already got badly outagined pergame last season. I believe they lost like 3-4 of their RB's as well. This is gonna be a bad year for this team. They should beat Alcorn in week three after the openers at MSU/FSU but that could be it.

I will say, I like MSU to roll in this game. It would have to be a good number for me to play it most likely.

UAB was excellent against the ground game last year but lost 6 of 8 on the line and I read in Phil's magazine that the new line averages 251lbs! Wow. Sparty should bully them up front and wear them out.
 
Thansk BAR,
I am right to assume that msu goes more smashmouth this year and at 251 avg at dl i can see where that could hurt them. With that said , the pound attack eats clock, making large covers so much harder and I would atleast expect to see some passing to get ears wet of stanton replacement. new system , new qb rarely equals perfect game 1. The coach gets his kids to outright play for him though. like i said. I guess i will watch and take notes. joy of my local book , i get three tvs to myself and several big screens... i get to watch a lot.
 
These are pretty solid lines, and as Gar said, probably the closest to mine of any that I've seen. These are the only ones that I'm positive are off:

UNLV PK
UAB +24.5 (although I'm not sure they cover this)
UL Lafayette +35.5
Bowling Green +17.5
Indiana -6.5

I would go LARGE on Indiana...Indiana State is the worst team in their conference, got beat by 25 at Purdue last year (and 41-3 by Western Kentucky). This is a very emotional game for the Hoosiers and I think they win by atleast 17.
 
I think UNLV is atleast a 2-point fave, I think UAB is catching right around 3 TDs, I think UL Lafayette is around 30, and I think BGSU is around 2 TDs. I'm not really sure about Indiana, but I'd say something like -16.
 
TheGarfather said:
Scary. You and I must be sharing the same brain because almost all of these are right in the ballpark of what I am thinking. Of the different predictions I have seen so far, yours collectively matches mine more closely than anyone else's to date at either covers or here.

The only one that I think needs adjustment by more than a field goal would be the NC State number which I think you left short. Being still mid-July I don't think its totally unreasonable that we are off by up to 3 points on some of them.

I should clarify that I don't make lines or handicap any game involving a D1-AA team, so maybe some of those would be different, but I don't have lines for them. On the D1A vs D1A games we are really close bro.
Click to expand...

Always makes me feel a little better when I have solid guys like you and Lindetrain thinking I am on point with many of my projections. I am at the point now where I pretty much know the games I will make plays on once the opening lines hit, so for me it is pretty much a waiting game at this point. Going to hit the bank next week to withdraw the necessary funds needed to set my up my bankroll for the upcoming season and I will be ready to roll. Will probably do a cashier's check for 1 book and a moneygram for another as I don't have enough confidence in my bank not to screw up my bank wire.
 
huskermexico said:
the gophers are a little high in -17.5, and now more with this news....
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;...-minnesota-playersdismissed&prov=ap&type=lgns :moose:
Click to expand...


Yeah, I can understand why most would think this one is high as I was wavering back and forth between whether it would be 14.5 or 17.5. Even with the crazy stuff going on with Minny this summer, I don't think we will see anything under DD though as public perception alone will be enough to keep this one at least around 13+ IMO. Minny is one of those teams that the public would be all over in week 1 if the line opened light, so I think that it will take a solid 14 or so to get the even action on both sides, but guess we will see in a few weeks. Appreciate the insight as I admit I am probably off on more than a few of these, so thanks for pointing this one out!
 
vegaskyle said:
I doubt nebraska will open up at 20 or higher even though they should. we are pretty close on our expectations on most of these. not long until we get to see ther real deal !
Click to expand...

For me vegaskyle, this was a huge public perception one, as the Huskers are getting some solid press this spring and summer, so I could see the line opening heavy in order to try and entire someone, anyone, to jump on Nevada in what appears to be a down year for them. I was originally thinking around 17.5 but decided that the higher line would welcome more balanced action, but again, this was a tough one. Appreciate the response!
 
Hi Carolina, As always, great thread. I agree with you on most of them.

Would prefer to see what YOU think the lines SHOULD be, rather than what you think they WILL be.

GL this upcoming season.
 
good work cblue. i can't wait to get started.

as per the UAB discussion metioned by kyle and bar......UAB is going to be extremely weak this year in what will be rebuilding for years to come. i do not see how they can compete for four quarters in that game. UAB will be dominated at the skill positions and overmatched on both sides of the line imo. the spartans usually come out of the gate strong too. i can see 42 or 49 to 7 easy. that's my take as of now.
 
i am thinking that ohio state is more in the range of -28.5 to -30. i mean once they get 3 td lead or so they should let off the gas but who knows how many pick 6's or fumble returns for TD's there will be given OSU's stout defense.
 
Agree with your points about the big faves having to lay more points this year. I'd add that the shorter fields with the kickoffs coming from the 30-yd line are going to jack up the points as well.
 
The shorter kick offs hurt Huge favorites imo. In theory they should be kicking off way more often and big dogs should start with better field position on average. Of course , reverting to old clock rules helps big favorites.
 
honestly do not feel rule changes affect anything but o/u. i ahev yet tochange my style of capping and ghave done fine 5 yards doesn't matter when it all comes down to it. clock doesn't mean anything either in terms of spreads as we saw last year. just my 2 cents
 
i agree to a degree troy, but what effect the 5 yards has should be a positive for teams that are 30 point dogs or more. agree that it is pretty minimal in the grand scheme of capping.
 
5dimes is starting to list some of the "other games"...First one up...

<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=800 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>Murray State at Louisville</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Thu 8/30</TD><TD noWrap>601 </TD><TD noWrap>Murray State</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_0 name=radiox>+57 -115 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>7:30PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>602</TD><TD noWrap>Louisville</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_0 name=radiox>-57 -115 </TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Now, I love the favs, but as Ron Simmons would say.....DAMN! I was hoping for 52 or less....I can't bring myself to play -57!!!!!
 
Does anyone think that Kragthorpe will run up the score like Petrino? Especially while his team is learning his offensive and defensive schemes?

Petrino is an evil man who will do everthing he can to embarass another team. Kragthorpe will win and win convincingly over lesser opponents but does not have Petrino's asshole streak.

There may be alot of value in fading L-ville this year--especially early on--against huge, even barely alive, dogs.
 
The tough thing is RJ, I don't see any way that Murray State will score in this game, so LVille may end up running up the score without even trying. To be honest though, with this being the first game for the new coach, in front of the home crowd, with the heisman candidate under center, I would not be shocked if he didn't let his foot off the gas until sometime in the 3rd quarter and by that time it might already be 59-0. I was hoping to get a line of -52 or less in this one, but not gonna touch it at 57 even though I wouldn't be surprised to see a 62-0 final in this one.
 
Looks like some early action has come in on Murray State as the line has dropped a full point since yesterday...Can't blame anyone for thinking there is value in the racers because the line is so high, but there is no way I would take a shot on em as again, I could easily see this one as a 62-0 whitewash. I predicted the line would come out at 52 so I wasn't too far off on this one. Still a no play for me as I would only play LVille if I could get 52 or better to protect against a 59-7 or 52-0 type of game.

<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=800 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR><TH class=moduletitle align=left colSpan=3>College xtra Football </TH><TH class=moduletitle align=left>Spread</TH><TH class=moduletitle align=left>Money Line</TH><TH class=moduletitle align=left>Total Points</TH><TH class=moduletitle noWrap align=left colSpan=2>Team Total Points</TH><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>Murray State at Louisville</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Thu 8/30</TD><TD noWrap>601 </TD><TD noWrap>Murray State</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S1_0> +56 -115 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>7:30PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>602</TD><TD noWrap>Louisville</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S2_0> -56 -115 </TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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