Carolinablue Week 1 Confirmed Plays

[carolinablue]

Thanks wolfpack, glad to have you on board here at CTG. I can live with State fans around, just don't wanna see those other guys from 8 miles down the road over here haha.


Here are some notes from UC coach Brian Kelly's daily journal for the Cincinnati Enquirer (they actually call it a diary but I didn't wanna put him out there like that haha). Of interest is his comment about the offense, as there has been a lot of talk around here about how the offense wasn't able to click like he had hoped and this pretty much confirms that. Should bode well for SEMO backers in week 1, as it will be tough for Cincy to cover all those points w/o the expected high powered explosive multiple set offense that Kelly wanted to launch from day 1.

What we have is a football team that has no superstars but a lot of solid players. I wanted to come out here and get our identity and know who we are. I think our kids understand that our strength will be in our ability to play a lot of players and keep coming after you.

We'll have to scale back our offense a little bit. We tried to put in as much as we could, but we're going to have to rely on some things that are a little more simplified. That's OK. ...

That doesn't mean we'll be more conservative. It just means that we'll have to have a tighter package in terms of what we do.

 

[Dmoney416]

Yep CB, that is kind of what I expected all along. Also looks like Grutza may have fallen down to the 3rd QB (though Kelly won't publicly say this).

 

[pags11]

grutza to third team?...that's nuts...Mauk is not that good...thanks for the info. dmoney...

 

[Dmoney416]

grutza to third team?...that's nuts...Mauk is not that good...thanks for the info. dmoney...

I am not positive of that pags, that is just what it seems to me as I am reading in between the lines of Kelly's quotes. Mauk should start assuming his arm is up to it, and Tony Pike has apparently been charging hard.

 

[CASH]

All of the following are locked and loaded at the Greek for week 1. All plays are always to win 1 unit and all of these plays are at -110 juice (I have no problem letting you guys know when I buy as it doesn't help anyone if I don't tell you that I had to pay for a line obviously).

All lines were available as of 9pm 8/1/07, which is when all of these were locked in. I am sure some lines may move against me, but I am betting on the fact that most will move in my favor, so figured it was worth taking a chance on locking these plays in early.

The rest of my plays will probably come from the I-A vs I-AA matchups at 5dimes once those get released later this month, as I am pretty much satisfied with my card as it currently stands.

UCONN -5 1/2
IOWA -11
TEXAS -37
S CAROLINA -28
MSU -19
FSU - 1 1/2
LSU -16

Just for the record, yes I know I am playing all favs. Remember that I played 36 favs in a row in cbb and went a documented 28-8 so I will leave the dog plays to the experts in the forum while I stick with my chalk haha.

I will update this thread once 5dimes releases its card as there are about 3-4 big time under the radar games that I am looking to jump on over there as soon as the lines are released.

If anyone has any questions about rationale behind a particular play above, just let me know, but I think most of my reasons can probably be found in one of my other threads as these plays are all pretty consistent with my leans from earlier this summer, give or take 1 or 2.

Best of luck this season fellas!

so would the uconn line beconsidered a solid ml play if you playrf money lines. what elselook like good ml games. i am leaning Bc vs. wake and a slight chance with iowa.. thanks

 

[carolinablue]

Spent the entire weekend going through all of the Div 1-AA matchups that were posted on 5dimes a few days ago and couldn't find an edge in any of the games to be honest. Considered Pine Bluff and also McNeese State but in the end, just couldn't find enough info to be comfortable laying a unit on either, so decided to lay off the entire slate. I do think there is money to be made in a lot of those games, but I don't wanna press my luck in week 1 as I hate adding games once I feel good about my final card. Already looking at the week 2 1-AA matchups though so I can get started on the value hunt early for those. If any of you guys play these games like I do, give me a shout as I think a lot of times there is more value in those lines than in many of the 1-A ones.

ps FCS/FBS, whatever, who cares, it is 1-A and 1-AA to me haha.

 

[carolinablue]

so would the uconn line beconsidered a solid ml play if you playrf money lines. what elselook like good ml games. i am leaning Bc vs. wake and a slight chance with iowa.. thanks

Cashman - Welcome to CTG, great to have you on board. To be honest, I wouldn't consider any of my plays to be good ML plays because the value just isn't there. I typically play favs throughout the season, all at a 1.1 to 1 rate for the most part, so I honestly don't even look at whether or not they would be solid ML plays or not because you woud have to play them at uneven levels to equalize the plays across the board. What I mean is UConn for example is -200 right now on the ML, so for me there wouldn't be value in playing a road fav at 2 to win 1, even though I do believe they win that one and cover the spread.

I think Garfather and the rest of the guys on the ML dog train have the right philosophy with regard to ML plays as the dog route is definitely the way to go b/c of the + juice, rather than trying to play a bunch of -200 to -500 ML favs because all it takes is one to go against you and a 4-1 day could be a profit loser. Just my 2 cents. Either way, best of luck this season!

ps UConn has dropped from -5.5 to -4.5 so that is definitely one I guessed wrong on as far as jumping on it early, so that probably isn't the best example anyway. Hope my response helped a little at least.

 

[TIGATOR]

CB,
On my Tigers with you @ -17. I will there on Thursday to ensure the ass kicking of the COW BELLS.
Also on:
Fsu-2
GTECH +3
Still looking at a few more, but looking forward to an excellent year with the pigskin

 

[CASH]

thank you for taking the time to respond, best of luck on your plays.

 

[Sparky1019]

BOL Carolinablue :cheers:

Hope you have another wonderful season as always. Love your insight and plays. Was leaning UCONN and LSU myself, and may just play the other because you and many other great cappers agree. Thats normally a good thing. :shake:

 

[carolinablue]

Thanks Sparky, appreciate the words. For me it is all about consistency and profit. I will leave the flash to the younger guys haha.

Wouldn't you know it that all of my 1-AA leans have all had line moves over night. I knew I shouldn't have mentioned em until after I locked em in, man! GWebb, Pine Bluff, and Holy Cross have all moved into no value land so my card is definitely locked and loaded at this point. Went to play Texas 1H but didn't see it on the board so not sure what happened there. Man, I can wait till tomorrow!

 

[bull]

Cb
being carolina guy, you gotta know more about g-webb than I do.
but I'll post a thought or two in my thread for you.
GL- We have opposite styles. Let's hope we both win.

 

[Bfreetorun]

Isn't South Carolina QB suspended from the first game (or is it an injury) and a couple of other thugs got kicked off squad for acting naturally? If the line moves much you might want to buy back your SC bet. Just a thought. I like LSU, Michigan State and a total or so. GL on your plays.

 

[Fondybadger]

It's almost time for kickoff...

 

[E.T.G.]

Isn't South Carolina QB suspended from the first game (or is it an injury) and a couple of other thugs got kicked off squad for acting naturally? If the line moves much you might want to buy back your SC bet. Just a thought. I like LSU, Michigan State and a total or so. GL on your plays.

I was going to refrain from commenting on this and leave it to CB to do but I just can't help myself.


#1) Yes the SC QB is suspended for the 1st game
#2) Those "THUGS" you speak of with such certainty, no they have not been kicked off the team for acting "NATURALLY". What is that suppose to mean anyway, but that is an arguement for another day. If you did some reading you would find that A) Richardson was stabbed in a fight then caught smoking weed, what a crime!, B)Garcia got in trouble for keying a car and underage drinking, and C)Cook has been reinstated by the university because he is INNOCENT.


my rant is over

 

[carolinablue]

Funny thing just happened...

Went to 5dimes and saw that the Rice line had dropped from -25.5 all the way down to -3. Needless to say I figured they must have meant -23, so I contacted them and gave them a heads up that they had a bad line up by mistake. I know they would have caught it eventually and voided the plays of anyone who took advantage of that crazy line, but I still felt it was the right thing to do. Now, it would be cool if they dropped a little somethin extra in my account as a thank you haha, but not expecting it. Guess when all is said and done, even though we are all degenerates, there is still a code of honor in this game we call gambling....or am I just a complete idiot haha.

Will be getting outta here in another hour, which will give me just enough time to get home and make some 1st day of football grub to start the season right....Gonna do old school cheesesteaks tonight as I am saving the big 2 gallon pot of chili for Saturday's marathon session. Man, I have butterflies in my stomach waitin for the kickoff tonight!

 

[Dmoney416]

Funny thing just happened...

Went to 5dimes and saw that the Rice line had dropped from -25.5 all the way down to -3. Needless to say I figured they must have meant -23, so I contacted them and gave them a heads up that they had a bad line up by mistake. I know they would have caught it eventually and voided the plays of anyone who took advantage of that crazy line, but I still felt it was the right thing to do. Now, it would be cool if they dropped a little somethin extra in my account as a thank you haha, but not expecting it. Guess when all is said and done, even though we are all degenerates, there is still a code of honor in this game we call gambling....or am I just a complete idiot haha.

Will be getting outta here in another hour, which will give me just enough time to get home and make some 1st day of football grub to start the season right....Gonna do old school cheesesteaks tonight as I am saving the big 2 gallon pot of chili for Saturday's marathon session. Man, I have butterflies in my stomach waitin for the kickoff tonight!

Nothing wrong with this. 99.99% they get those bets voided like you said.

GL this season CB. You and I may be the only ones keeping an eye on the SEMU at Cincy game tonight. :cheers:

 

[Fondybadger]

I'm so ready for LSU to kick off

 

[tee*dub]

Nice start CB.. LSU was easy... continued success..tw

 

[B.A.R.]

Very nice....

pretty much routine for CB in college athletics

 

[carolinablue]

Very nice....

pretty much routine for CB in college athletics

Thanks bro, appreciate it. LSU was a nice one to watch as I don't think I had one drop of sweat on my forehead the entire game, but let's not forget that I did get WAXED on that SEMO game though!

How does a team go from being down 0-6 in the 1st to 3-19 at the half to 3-59 for the game ouch. Kelly definitely put on a show for the home crowd, so gotta give credit where credit is due. Good thing is that I got my one dog play for the year out of the way to appease all of those who say I only play favs haha. Now, I can do like I did in cbb and play about 100 favs in a row without having to worry about any "don't you play any dogs" comments, as now I can reference the SEMO game.

Looking forward to a fun Saturday!

 

[Fondybadger]

Nice night last night

 

[horses]

Carolina,

Do you have any (final) thoughts on the MTSU-FAU game tomorrow?

 

[carolinablue]

Carolina,

Do you have any (final) thoughts on the MTSU-FAU game tomorrow?

Slight lean to FAU but think the game could be decided by between 1-3pts so don't like the current line. I waited too long on it so a no play for me at this point.

 

[horses]

Thanks CB, GL this wknd

 

[JumpOnBoard]

GL today bro..

 

[RetroVK]

stopped in to see who the best favorites are for this week. don't let anyone talk you off of your style CB. it works for ya . have a great season.

 

[carolinablue]

Posted all of my week 1 games as soon as locked each one in, but figured it would be easier to summarize all of my plays here so you don't have to read through the whole thread if you don't feel like it. Best of luck to everyone today. Let's hope we get more easy ones like LSU from Thursday!

Saturday Card
UCONN -5.5 (Risk 1.1 to Win 1.0) - Greek
IOWA -11 (Risk 1.1 to Win 1.0) - Greek
TEXAS -37 (Risk 2.2 to Win 2.0) - Greek
S. CAR -28 (Risk 1.1 to Win 1.0) - Greek
MSU -19 (Risk 1.1 to Win 1.0) - Greek
FRESNO -23 and -25 (Total Risk 1.01 to Win .86) - 5 dimes
HAWAII -53 and -55 (Total Risk 1.01 to Win .86) - 5 dimes

Monday
FSU -1.5 (Risk 1.1 to Win 1.0) - Greek

 

[Troutman]

GL CB....Lets get this party started!

 

[carolinablue]

ADDED PLAY

USC/IDAHO 1st QUARTER TOTAL OVER 14 (at 5 dimes)

I am idiot for not even realizing 5 dimes had 1st quarter total lines up as I haven't been on the site much the last few days. Would have jumped all over them for all the mismatch games like OU v NT, but oh well. Don't really see any way this one doesn't hit as USC should be good for at least 14 in the 1st, which would mean a push at worst. I am thinking 21-0 but guess we will see in another hour or two.

Has today been a weird day or what by the way????

 

[Razor]

What's up Blue!! Hope you're kicking off a big weekend. Heels opening up the Butch Davis era tonight and my son went up there with a buddy!

 

[Joe Public]

Ack, I missed your thread completely.

Joe's head is still in the offseason a bit.

Good luck tonight, CB.

 

[Fondybadger]

Definitely a weird day, but it was the day of the faves which means it sets up pretty well for people like yourself and me...

 

[carolinablue]

Definitely a weird day, but it was the day of the faves which means it sets up pretty well for people like yourself and me...

Yeah, but unfortunately the big favs like Texas and S Carolina crashed and burned so that hurt me on the day. Will be a great day if Fresno and Hawaii get the covers, but if they don't then it will just be blah.