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Carolinablue Week 0 and Week 1 CFB Plays

Here are some ML Dogs that I might play for beer money. Nothing locked in yet, but just jotting these down so I don't forget. If I did all 12, would basically need between 3-4 to hit depending on which ones they were. Might be a fun way to use the promo money...

Open to feedback, thoughts, comments on any of these...

UConn 497
Neb 227
GT 236
NIU 256
Tol 265
Wyo 432
CSU 344
CCU 497
UNT 216
ULM 236
USA 212
NW 208
 
carolinablue said:
Great question wiseplayer! I don't have any groundbreaking tips or anything like that, as I like to keep things simple, so looking at my notebook right now, (yes, I am old school in that I keep everything relating to this stuff in composition books and spiral notebooks vs online) I can tell you the following things I have jotted down in one form or another:

  • My initial deposit equated to 40 units total that I will use for the entire season (note that I don't include promo bonus money in this, just out of pocket)
  • If I blow those 40 units by the time week 3 rolls around, then I am done, as I don't reload. Spoiler alert, I won't blow those 40 units haha.
  • I listed my ratios somewhere in the thread above, but I always prefer to have 3 books to play with, so that I can shop for the best lines, under the radar plays, early lines that are off in my eyes, early/late moves at a book, etc etc...Bookmaker, BetOnline and Heritage are my 3 this season.
  • All of my plays are to win 1 unit. I don't do 1-2-3 unit plays, because if I like a play, I play it, if I don't, I don't. Again, I just like to keep it simple
  • Each unit for me starts out at a static value of 2.5% of my total bankroll (40 units x 2.5% = 100%) and this static value doesn't change (ie I don't risk more if my bankroll increases nor do I risk less if my bankroll decreases. I know this is controversial to some, but it works for me, as I am a long game player and don't sweat a few bad weeks nor do I get too excited over a few good ones
  • All of my record keeping is pretty straightforward as again, everything is to win 1 unit, so if I play a ML at 128 like I did with UNC earlier today, it is risk 1.28 to win 1
  • Main thing for me is you gotta have a "WHY". Also, slow and steady wins the race, keeping my unit size constant the entire season, no reloading, as that takes away the "safety net" and causes me to treat this with more diligence just like I do with my investments vs just taking the attitude that if I blow it, I will just dump more in...I don't like losing money, it isn't fun, and I didn't get to where I am by being ok with losing money.
  • So, what is my "WHY"?..I do this not only because I enjoy the adrenaline rush and the ego boost that comes from winning cold hard cash, but my WHY comes down to the things that consistently winning on a long term basis allows me to do like take my lady on very nice vacations like our upcoming honeymoon in Fiji, so that we can create lasting memories. Call me a sap, but you gotta have a "WHY" as that changes the game in more ways than one.

Again, nothing groundbreaking, but hope that helps gives you a little insight into my thought process as we enter the 2nd most wonderful time of the year (March Madness still number 1 for me!)

Later,
CB
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Great stuff. Thanks for taking the time to reply. I saw that MyBookie is offering huge bonus amounts but with a 20X rollover. Example a $300 reload had a 70% bonus which is a no brainer but the $10,200 amount needed to wager is in my opinion too much. If I bet 5% of $510, we’re looking at $25 and getting to 10k seems like a long journey. Your thoughts on that. Thanks again.
 
wiseplayer said:
Great stuff. Thanks for taking the time to reply. I saw that MyBookie is offering huge bonus amounts but with a 20X rollover. Example a $300 reload had a 70% bonus which is a no brainer but the $10,200 amount needed to wager is in my opinion too much. If I bet 5% of $510, we’re looking at $25 and getting to 10k seems like a long journey. Your thoughts on that. Thanks again.
Click to expand...
It’s actually looking like a 10x rollover which is more doable.
 
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wiseplayer said:
Great stuff. Thanks for taking the time to reply. I saw that MyBookie is offering huge bonus amounts but with a 20X rollover. Example a $300 reload had a 70% bonus which is a no brainer but the $10,200 amount needed to wager is in my opinion too much. If I bet 5% of $510, we’re looking at $25 and getting to 10k seems like a long journey. Your thoughts on that. Thanks again.
Click to expand...
Happy to help!

Mybookie is the one I posted about earlier in the thread as they deemed me a “non casual” player, so I am done with them.

But that aside, a 20x rollover is way too much, as for comparison’s sake, BM gave me 15% cash with 5x for my deposit this season. Heritage was 10% cash with 6x if I remember correctly and BOL was 25% (free play not cash) with a 6x, but they cap at only $250 so not that great as the percentage makes it sound.

I always prefer cash over free plays and don’t like rollovers over 6x if I can help it, although I think I have done a 30% crypto with 7x before. Would not go higher than that though, so definitely shop around and focus on the cash offers vs free plays. Also, pay attention to max on the bonus as its kinda like the concept of a company match in that you want to calculate it so you don’t leave anything on the table if you can swing it.

Lastly, I know that some may argue that it is probably smarter for me to just decline all the bonuses so I don’t have to deal with any rollovers, but given I am high volume and know I will hit my rollover requirements over the course of the season without forcing anything, it makes sense for me to take the “free” money.

Of course, just like warranties and actuarial tables, the percentages and rollovers are calculated the way they are so that they ultimately benefit the book of course, as most lose and reload long before a rollover is close to being achieved. That’s why I focus on cash and low rollovers.

Hope that helps!
 
carolinablue said:
Happy to help!

Mybookie is the one I posted about earlier in the thread as they deemed me a “non casual” player, so I am done with them.

But that aside, a 20x rollover is way too much, as for comparison’s sake, BM gave me 15% cash with 5x for my deposit this season. Heritage was 10% cash with 6x if I remember correctly and BOL was 25% (free play not cash) with a 6x, but they cap at only $250 so not that great as the percentage makes it sound.

I always prefer cash over free plays and don’t like rollovers over 6x if I can help it, although I think I have done a 30% crypto with 7x before. Would not go higher than that though, so definitely shop around and focus on the cash offers vs free plays. Also, pay attention to max on the bonus as its kinda like the concept of a company match in that you want to calculate it so you don’t leave anything on the table if you can swing it.

Lastly, I know that some may argue that it is probably smarter for me to just decline all the bonuses so I don’t have to deal with any rollovers, but given I am high volume and know I will hit my rollover requirements over the course of the season without forcing anything, it makes sense for me to take the “free” money.

Of course, just like warranties and actuarial tables, the percentages and rollovers are calculated the way they are so that they ultimately benefit the book of course, as most lose and reload long before a rollover is close to being achieved. That’s why I focus on cash and low rollovers.

Hope that helps!
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Perfect. It does become about volume when taking the bonus. I’m going to stick with 1 amount. My starting bankroll needs to be determined to get the amount figured. Thx!
 
Looks like most of my early plays have resulted in decent value vs where the lines are today, with the exception of my Ville/GT over as that one is now at 49.5 108 at BM and I lost 18 cents of value on my 50.5 110 from BOL, and the SHSU/BYU over, as that one is now at 49.5 108 as well, and I lost 5 cents of value on my 50.5 108 there. Can't complain too much though, as 15 moving anywhere from a 1/2 to 3 or 4 points in my favor ain't too bad. Will be looking to keep track this year to see how many times early vs closing line comes into play with regard to wins/losses/pushes.
 
carolinablue said:
Decided to jump on the UNC ML at 128 over at Bookmaker as I didn't think the ML would come in at under 130. I will also probably jump on the team total over as I expect it to be low 30's. I must caveat that I am an unapolagetic homer but I do think that as long as our defense is not horrible, we should be able to outscore South Carolina with the keys in my mind being whether or not our OL and DL are improved, as if we can get pressure in the backfield it will make our secondary look like a million bucks. Drake will be Drake and I am not worried about our receiver core, because again, Drake will be Drake, and I am cautiously optimistic about our offense, as I expect us to try to get the running game going early and often, while also involving our TEs more, which should open things up for Drake to be well...Drake haha.

9/2
7:30pm UNC ML 128 (Bookmaker)
Click to expand...
UNC surely makes it to 34, probably in the range of 38-45
 
If there are any Charlotte peeps out there, I am looking to catch some week 0 cfb action in either Ballantyne or near uptown, so drop a note in the thread if interested!
 
carolinablue said:
Here are some ML Dogs that I might play for beer money. Nothing locked in yet, but just jotting these down so I don't forget. If I did all 12, would basically need between 3-4 to hit depending on which ones they were. Might be a fun way to use the promo money...

Open to feedback, thoughts, comments on any of these...

UConn 497
Neb 227
GT 236
NIU 256
Tol 265
Wyo 432
CSU 344
CCU 497
UNT 216
ULM 236
USA 212
NW 208
Click to expand...

Think BOL won’t let you use FP on +lines…..try that with MLB dogs and it’s a no no…..you can’t parlay for better odds too…..

They actually sent me a NFL magazine this year….lol……

LINDSY23

That’s the promo code to get 100% bonus capped at $1000 max with 14x rollover……think it expires end of August


Bookmaker actually let’s You use the bonus on parlays, Round Robins and + lines….

Not sure about Heritage….don’t have account


Regarding BOL……screenshot your plays…..

They have weird rollover rules……it’s not the amount wagered…..it’s the amount you lose…..winning wagers don’t count……maybe it’s just tailored for me cause I ask for big bonus?

Anyway…..GL this year
 
number2 said:
Think BOL won’t let you use FP on +lines…..try that with MLB dogs and it’s a no no…..you can’t parlay for better odds too…..

They actually sent me a NFL magazine this year….lol……

LINDSY23

That’s the promo code to get 100% bonus capped at $1000 max with 14x rollover……think it expires end of August


Bookmaker actually let’s You use the bonus on parlays, Round Robins and + lines….

Not sure about Heritage….don’t have account


Regarding BOL……screenshot your plays…..

They have weird rollover rules……it’s not the amount wagered…..it’s the amount you lose…..winning wagers don’t count……maybe it’s just tailored for me cause I ask for big bonus?

Anyway…..GL this year
Click to expand...
Yeah I was talking about the cash that BM offers as bonus free play money as they do 15% and don’t cap it at a silly low amount like some books do. Heritage does cash as well (10%).

I got that NFL book too haha

I stick to rollovers at 6x or less for the most part as I get offers from places like youwager and stuff but the rollovers are always crazy.

Best of luck this season man!
 
Added ML Dog "Beer Money" Plays - 12 Plays Total, Risking $25.00 each at BM
  • UConn +481
  • Nebraska +236
  • Ga Tech +223
  • NIU +256
  • Toledo +270
  • Wyoming +425
  • CSU +370
  • Akron +289
  • UNT +220
  • ULM +289
  • USA +212
  • BGSU +228
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah I was talking about the cash that BM offers as bonus free play money as they do 15% and don’t cap it at a silly low amount like some books do. Heritage does cash as well (10%).

I got that NFL book too haha

I stick to rollovers at 6x or less for the most part as I get offers from places like youwager and stuff but the rollovers are always crazy.

Best of luck this season man!
Click to expand...
I love the BM bonus - cash, simple, ok rollover. BOL is key book for me but their Rollover policy is ridiculous. I fairly recently deposited $5K and got a $1K bonus - and they calculated the Rollover at almost $75K!! Luckily I was doing some high volume offset betting and got it down to 0 pretty quickly. But they calculated the Rollover on the entire deposit (I guess) vs. just the bonus. Also, with their Free Play $ if you have a bet that pushes you lose. So you can't make bets with Free Play that can tie. Again, key book for me but they have some really horrible policies. But my fault for not knowing up front.
 
lvmike32 said:
I love the BM bonus - cash, simple, ok rollover. BOL is key book for me but their Rollover policy is ridiculous. I fairly recently deposited $5K and got a $1K bonus - and they calculated the Rollover at almost $75K!! Luckily I was doing some high volume offset betting and got it down to 0 pretty quickly. But they calculated the Rollover on the entire deposit (I guess) vs. just the bonus. Also, with their Free Play $ if you have a bet that pushes you lose. So you can't make bets with Free Play that can tie. Again, key book for me but they have some really horrible policies. But my fault for not knowing up front.
Click to expand...
I actually reduced my holdings in BOL this season as the gap between them and BM isn’t as dramatic as it used to be in terms of opens, plus BM allowed buys out of the gate so actually more beneficial to me in weeks 0 and 1.

Also cash vs fp and BM offering a greater max on the bonus also played a role. BOL still top tier but just bumped to the second slot for me this year.
 
carolinablue said:
Decided to jump on the UNC ML at 128 over at Bookmaker as I didn't think the ML would come in at under 130. I will also probably jump on the team total over as I expect it to be low 30's. I must caveat that I am an unapolagetic homer but I do think that as long as our defense is not horrible, we should be able to outscore South Carolina with the keys in my mind being whether or not our OL and DL are improved, as if we can get pressure in the backfield it will make our secondary look like a million bucks. Drake will be Drake and I am not worried about our receiver core, because again, Drake will be Drake, and I am cautiously optimistic about our offense, as I expect us to try to get the running game going early and often, while also involving our TEs more, which should open things up for Drake to be well...Drake haha.

9/2
7:30pm UNC ML 128 (Bookmaker)
Click to expand...
on this too.. did a Mich St/UNC ML Parlay which is at like +103 total.. felt safe enough with MSU to get UNC at even $$
 
BOL new sports site is better than the old…….they have live scores on the top now….

They also have crazy crypto futures bet and Dow Jones being odd or even…….

Yeah…..they add the deposit plus the bounce into the rollover, think BM too if you choose Free play…….


Just used the FP at BM

Have NMST-5 , USC-29, and UCF-35 in 2 teamers and 3 teamer……bought the lines down

Going against last year’s worse team UMASS and this years worse team in Kent St…..
 
Added
Notre Dame o33.5 135 (BOL)

Heritage has 34.5 110, but I like getting 33.5 a lot better, just in case it ends something like 34-17.
 
Added
8/26 8:00pm USC o47.5 130 (BOL)

Heritage has 48.5 125, so this line is obviously the better value. Fully expect USC to put up 52 in this one but as we all know anything can happen.
 
Man, I feel both lucky and frustrated at the 3-3 record for Week 0.

Lucky - USC TT over comes alive in 2H

Frustrated - End of game play calling to kill my Navy v ND over and my UTEP +1.5

NMSU made UMass look like Bama, so I can’t complain about that one. Now watch UMass lose by 50 next week.

As Chris Jericho would say.,,

UTEP, Navy and NMSU…

YOU JUST MADE THE LIST!IMG_4074.jpeg
 
Added
3:30pm UMass/Auburn o51.5 123 (Heritage)

Hopefully Auburn puts up 52 against the sieve like UMass defense so I don’t have to worry about it, but I expect UMass to contribute at least 10 to the party.
 
carolinablue said:
Added
3:30pm UMass/Auburn o51.5 123 (Heritage)

Hopefully Auburn puts up 52 against the sieve like UMass defense so I don’t have to worry about it, but I expect UMass to contribute at least 10 to the party.
Click to expand...
UMass looked somewhat aggressive on offense but the talent difference vs Auburn should reveal itself here. GL
 
wiseplayer said:
UMass looked somewhat aggressive on offense but the talent difference vs Auburn should reveal itself here. GL
Click to expand...
I actually find the projected UMass team total of less than 10 to be somewhat intriguing, as I tend to think they should be able to put up a few points in garbage time as they definitely have more of a fight about them than it seems they had in the past. Ultimately though, prefer the game over vs team total since I wouldn't be shocked if they came back down to earth and lost 52-7 as obviously the Auburn regime doesn't want to give the doubters any ammo out of the gate.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Love this. As noted above UMass QB is going to make plays, especially late in the game when it's out of hand and you need that 7 or so to seal the cover.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I figure the line isn't going to go down and I like getting under that 52 as I am seeing 52.5 and don't wanna get burned by a 45-7 or similar. I will be at BoA on Saturday night so doubtful I will know much of anything regarding the success of my plays depending on how the game and my alcohol intake goes down that evening!
 
carolinablue said:
I actually find the projected UMass team total of less than 10 to be somewhat intriguing, as I tend to think they should be able to put up a few points in garbage time as they definitely have more of a fight about them than it seems they had in the past. Ultimately though, prefer the game over vs team total since I wouldn't be shocked if they came back down to earth and lost 52-7 as obviously the Auburn regime doesn't want to give the doubters any ammo out of the gate.
Click to expand...
What’s funny for me about the UMass-NMST game is I went live ingame under 21.5 late 1st quarter. It looked like the slop everyone had referred to. It’s as if both teams knew what I bet because it ramped up in the 2nd quarter. I’m gonna watch that game again to see if NMST is just that bad.
 
wiseplayer said:
What’s funny for me about the UMass-NMST game is I went live ingame under 21.5 late 1st quarter. It looked like the slop everyone had referred to. It’s as if both teams knew what I bet because it ramped up in the 2nd quarter. I’m gonna watch that game again to see if NMST is just that bad.
Click to expand...
I had NMSU -5.5 so I knew my bet was toast well before the game was over so I switched to UTEP, which was a mistake as I had to bear witness to some horrible play calling at the end, so then I switched to watching USC online which made me feel better since I had the TT over.
 
carolinablue said:
I had NMSU -5.5 so I knew my bet was toast well before the game was over so I switched to UTEP, which was a mistake as I had to bear witness to some horrible play calling at the end, so then I switched to watching USC online which made me feel better since I had the TT over.
Click to expand...
Got fortunate and grabbed UTEP +6.5 in game.. but yikes, that playcalling was so awful
 
Don’t get why the NCAA is letting this just hang out there without any follow up communication…


CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Tez Walker’s availability for North Carolina football’s opener against South Carolina on Saturday remains unknown for the Tar Heels.

UNC head coach Mack Brown said that Walker was “really down” during Sunday’s practice with the state of his eligibility still not resolved, saying that he didn’t play with his usual confidence. Brown said UNC’s compliance team is working to get Walker reinstated, but has yet to hear anything from the NCAA.



North Carolina governor Roy Cooper joined the list of outspoken opponents of Walker's ruling when he sent a letter to NCAA president Charlie Baker earlier this month calling for the reversal of the eligibility decision.

“First, the NCAA’s prohibition on two-time transfers has largely been waived over the last three years due to the challenges caused by the pandemic,” Cooper said in his letter. “Second, the NCAA’s denial of Tez’s transfer waiver is based on a directive that was changed after he had already enrolled at UNC… Third, there is a good argument that Tez is not a ‘two-time transfer’ at all. He’s only played football for one school, Kent State.
 
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The hurricane shouldn’t make too much of a difference given the game is in Utah of course, but you never know how guys might respond mentally, depending on their personal circumstances



The University of Florida's football team, the Florida Gators, announced a change in its travel plans because of Hurricane Idalia.

The Gators, who are scheduled to face No. 14 Utah in their season opener on Thursday, will now leave a day earlier, flying to Dallas on Tuesday. The team will stay in Dallas overnight and then fly to Salt Lake City on Wednesday, arriving in Utah as originally scheduled.

The University of Florida campus in Gainesville is closed Tuesday starting at noon ET and will be closed Wednesday.
 
All of the rain is on its way out of the Charlotte area and the forecast for Saturday's game is Carolina Blue skies and perfect football weather with temps in the 70's around the 7:30pm kickoff time before settling into the mid 60's during the night. No wind, no rain, just an all around beautiful night for football expected in Charlotte. Can't wait to be there in person!

GO HEELS!
 
Added
8pm Missouri -28 125 (BOL)

Completely understand that Mizzou will probably play both guys under center tonight as they still haven't figured out a starter, but don't think it matters against the South Dakota defense, as Mizzou should be good for 40+ in this one, at least, while I would not be surprised if S Dakota doesn't get out of single digits. First quarter may make me sweat a bit, but as long as Mizzou takes care of the ball and doesn't give up any fluke plays, the body blows should eventually add up and Mizzou should win going away in the second half.
 
Added
7:00pm Furman -25 115 (BOL) - FCS
7:30pm Youngstown State -27.5 122 (BM) - FCS
8:00pm Abilene Christian -13 121 (BM) - FCS
 
8/31
7:00pm Nicholls State +24 126 (BM) - FCS
7:00pm Furman -25 115 (BOL) - FCS
7:30pm Youngstown State -27.5 122 (BM) - FCS
8:00pm Abilene Christian -13 121 (BM) - FCS
8:00pm Missouri -28 125 (BOL) - FBS vs FCS
 
Here are my potential FBS/FCS game targets for Saturday, depending on the line...This will help me focus as I expect the lines to hit sometime Saturday morning and it will no doubt be fast and furious...

AFA
Arky
Oregon
ND
Wofford
Miss St
Cuse
UNCC
Georgia
Vandy
Memphis
Okla St
UIW
Zona
MD
KSU
 
carolinablue said:
Added
8pm Missouri -28 125 (BOL)

Completely understand that Mizzou will probably play both guys under center tonight as they still haven't figured out a starter, but don't think it matters against the South Dakota defense, as Mizzou should be good for 40+ in this one, at least, while I would not be surprised if S Dakota doesn't get out of single digits. First quarter may make me sweat a bit, but as long as Mizzou takes care of the ball and doesn't give up any fluke plays, the body blows should eventually add up and Mizzou should win going away in the second half.
Click to expand...
fired at -26.5.. if SD scores 10 or less, we should be in good shape
 
carolinablue said:
Don’t get why the NCAA is letting this just hang out there without any follow up communication…


CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Tez Walker’s availability for North Carolina football’s opener against South Carolina on Saturday remains unknown for the Tar Heels.

UNC head coach Mack Brown said that Walker was “really down” during Sunday’s practice with the state of his eligibility still not resolved, saying that he didn’t play with his usual confidence. Brown said UNC’s compliance team is working to get Walker reinstated, but has yet to hear anything from the NCAA.



North Carolina governor Roy Cooper joined the list of outspoken opponents of Walker's ruling when he sent a letter to NCAA president Charlie Baker earlier this month calling for the reversal of the eligibility decision.

“First, the NCAA’s prohibition on two-time transfers has largely been waived over the last three years due to the challenges caused by the pandemic,” Cooper said in his letter. “Second, the NCAA’s denial of Tez’s transfer waiver is based on a directive that was changed after he had already enrolled at UNC… Third, there is a good argument that Tez is not a ‘two-time transfer’ at all. He’s only played football for one school, Kent State.
Click to expand...


It will be nice when the day comes the ncaa gets taken behind the barn and shot!! Is there a more useless bunch of hypocrites? Lately it seems like they do shit just to remind us they still exist! Only thing I can tell they do is intentionally find refs to cheat memphis in the ncaa tourney every year since Penny played wiseman after they told him not to!! I wish these schools would stop appeasing them with the little self imposed punishments and just tell them to fuck off!!
 
That's all for team totals...nothing else for now as everything else will come once Bookmaker releases the FCS stuff in the am, as I am filled to top with plays at Heritage and BOL for now, but plenty of space at BM to round out the card in the am. Best of luck this weekend guys!
 
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