Carolinablue Week 0 and Week 1 CFB Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Your Tribal Chief has returned....ACKNOWLEDGE ME!

Will be using Bookmaker, Heritage and BetOnline this season, with the initial funding broken down as follows:
BM = 58% (does not include 15% cash bonus)
H = 25% (does not include 10% cash bonus)
BOL = 17% (does not include 30% FP bonus)

All plays will be to win 1 unit.
Starting bankroll = 40 units (not including bonuses)

Week 0 3-3 -0.72 units
8/26
2:30pm Navy/Notre Dame o48.5 131 (Heritage) and Notre Dame o33.5 135 (BOL)
5:30pm UTEP +1.5 117 (Heritage)
7:00pm NMSU -5.5 124 (BM)
7:30pm Hawaii/Vandy o52 124 (BM)
8:00pm USC o47.5 130 (BOL)

Week 1 5-1 +3.75 units
8/31
7:00pm Rhode Island +18 126 (BM) - FCS
7:00pm Nicholls State +24 126 (BM) - FCS
7:00pm Furman -25 115 (BOL) - FCS
7:30pm Youngstown State -27.5 122 (BM) - FCS
8:00pm Abilene Christian -13 121 (BM) - FCS
8:00pm Missouri -28 125 (BOL) - FBS vs FCS

9/1 1-0 +1.00 units
7pm Louisville/Ga Tech o50.5 110 (BOL)

9/2 12-11 -1.56 units
12pm Tenn TT o41.5 115 (BOL)
12pm N. Illinois +11.5 121 (Heritage)
12pm Michigan -34.5 110 (BOL)
12pm Iowa -22.5 113 (BM)
12pm Oklahoma -32.5 108 (BM)
1pm Arkansas -33.5 112 (BM) - FCS
2pm Jax State -16.5 125 (BOL) - FCS

3:30pm Wisconsin -22.5 118 (BM) and TT o38.5 145 (BOL)
3:30pm Ohio State TT o43.5 145 (BOL)
3:30pm Texas -33.5 125 (Heritage)
3:30pm Auburn/UMass o51.5 123 (Heritage)
4pm North Texas +11 135 (Heritage)
4pm Cuse -37 112 (BM) - FCS

6pm FAU -21 123 (BM) - FCS
7pm Ok State -27 112 (BM) - FCS
7pm Texas State/Baylor o56.5 110 (BOL)
7pm UTSA +1.5 120 (Heritage)
7:30pm Toledo +11.5 121 (Heritage)
7:30pm UNC ML 128 (BM) and TT o31.5 125 (BOL)

9pm NMSU -18 121 (BM) - FCS
10:15pm SHSU/BYU o50.5 108 (BM)

Week 1 = 18-12 +3.19 units

Added ML Dog "Beer Money" Plays - 12 Plays Total, Risking $25.00 each at BM = 3W 9L --> +$17.50
UConn +481
Nebraska +236
Ga Tech +223
NIU +256
Toledo +270
Wyoming +425
CSU +370
Akron +289
UNT +220
ULM +289
USA +212
BGSU +228
 
Last edited:
Decided to lock those 2 in now as you guys know I am predominantly a favs player, but like to jump on dogs that I think have a legit shot to win SU. Both of these lines have started to shift a bit, especially at BOL, so wanted to get the lines while they are still available (Heritage is a point behind BOL with NIU for example).
 
9/2 12pm Michigan -34.5 110 (BOL)

Was stuck at 35/35.5 for a while, so figured I would just take the 34.5 at BOL since it is still 35.5 at the others....35 is the only relevant number for me, as it won't get to 31 obviously, so taking this one now.
 
Chime Card doesn't work with BM by the way, so now gotta send the money back to my account and then over to BTC before I can fund BM...fun times!
 
Added
9/2 7:30pm Toledo +11.5 121 (Heritage)

This is another one that I think stays within single digits, similar to the NIU game, as it would not surprise me if Toledo is tied or up at some point as they have the athletes to hang with Illinois, and if they play a clean game without turnovers, they could definitely pull the upset which would automatically put them into the conversation for a NY6 bowl at year end.
 
carolinablue said:
Added
9/2 7:30pm Toledo +11.5 121 (Heritage)

This is another one that I think stays within single digits, similar to the NIU game, as it would not surprise me if Toledo is tied or up at some point as they have the athletes to hang with Illinois, and if they play a clean game without turnovers, they could definitely pull the upset which would automatically put them into the conversation for a NY6 bowl at year end.
Click to expand...
You are correct here. If they avoid turning the ball over and if they hold up in the trenches they should be able to keep this within the number. They will not be intimidated in this game for sure
 
steponaduck said:
You are correct here. If they avoid turning the ball over and if they hold up in the trenches they should be able to keep this within the number. They will not be intimidated in this game for sure
Click to expand...
Actually looking forward to watching this one as it could be a hidden gem in week 1, both in terms of competitiveness and entertainment value.
 
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — ESPN's iconic "College GameDay" show will roll into the Queen City for the season-opening matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and South Carolina Gamecocks, the network announced Monday.

The Tar Heels and Gamecocks will face off in the Duke's Mayo Classic at Bank of America Stadium. "GameDay" will be held at nearby Romare Bearden Park on Sept. 2, where it's previously welcomed guests for the huge Clemson vs. Georgia game in 2021, as well as ACC championship games. Rece Davis will be joined by Kirk Herbstreit, Desmond Howard and Pat McAfee, as well as Lee Corso, who will put on a mascot head for the first time in 2023 at the show.
 
Added
9/2 4pm North Texas +11 135 (Heritage)

I actually had this one circled at 11 121 but got called out of town and by the time I came back I saw 8.5's everywhere, so bit the bullet and took the 135 since Heritage was still sitting on 9.5 unlike BOL and BM which had already moved to 8.5. Costly for sure, but didn't want to second guess my initial lean even though it cost me an extra 14. As Iceman King Parsons from World Class Wrestling used to say...."mama says it be's that way sometimes!"
 
You knew the favs were comin!

Added:
9/2 12pm Oklahoma -32.5 108 (BM)
9/2 3:30pm Wisconsin -22.5 118 (BM)
9/2 12pm Iowa -22.5 113 (BM)
 
Gonna be on the road on and off the next 2 1/2 weeks, so getting all these in today while I have time. Hopefully my hunches on movement prove to be true, but I definitely know the risk of playing early, but that's how I roll!
 
Will be doing team totals and FCS v FBS day of, and of course I will have a play on the Heels to win the opener in Charlotte....and as the Wiseman Paul Heyman would say "that's not a prediction, that's a spoiler"
 
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — North Carolina receiver Tez Walker’s eligibility suddenly is in question with the NCAA having denied his waiver to play immediately for the Tar Heels as a two-time transfer, coach Mack Brown said Tuesday. UNC is appealing the ruling.
 
carolinablue said:
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — North Carolina receiver Tez Walker’s eligibility suddenly is in question with the NCAA having denied his waiver to play immediately for the Tar Heels as a two-time transfer, coach Mack Brown said Tuesday. UNC is appealing the ruling.
Click to expand...
Important because Kent State transfer Tez was expected to be a main target for Drake and he was selected as a preseason All Conference without having played a snap yet.
 
Heads up that if anyone happens to be in Charlotte Labor Day weekend, I just put two tickets up for sale (we are using two and selling two) on stub hub but willing to pull the listing if anyone is in town and needs tickets to the game.
 
Just got word that mybookie.ag completed a review of my account from the past season and has made the decision to revoke any potential bonus privileges moving forward as they have determined that I am not a casual bettor.

I actually take that as a compliment as that means they acknowledge the fact that I curb stomped them Seth Rollins style last season hahahahaha (Seth Rollins laugh)

Now, everyone sing my song…

Ohhhh ohhhh ohhh ohhhhh ohhhh ohhh ohhhh
 
Best of luck this year carolinablue. You are a stud capper and will be reading your thread each week.

I feel bad for your bookie...... wait a second, no I dont. HA

LFG
 
CB, you may have done this before but can you share with us your money management strategy for the season? I have the obvious one of 5% or less of the bankroll but was wondering if you any unique thoughts that you utilize? GL
 
wiseplayer said:
CB, you may have done this before but can you share with us your money management strategy for the season? I have the obvious one of 5% or less of the bankroll but was wondering if you any unique thoughts that you utilize? GL
Click to expand...
Great question wiseplayer! I don't have any groundbreaking tips or anything like that, as I like to keep things simple, so looking at my notebook right now, (yes, I am old school in that I keep everything relating to this stuff in composition books and spiral notebooks vs online) I can tell you the following things I have jotted down in one form or another:

  • My initial deposit equated to 40 units total that I will use for the entire season (note that I don't include promo bonus money in this, just out of pocket)
  • If I blow those 40 units by the time week 3 rolls around, then I am done, as I don't reload. Spoiler alert, I won't blow those 40 units haha.
  • I listed my ratios somewhere in the thread above, but I always prefer to have 3 books to play with, so that I can shop for the best lines, under the radar plays, early lines that are off in my eyes, early/late moves at a book, etc etc...Bookmaker, BetOnline and Heritage are my 3 this season.
  • All of my plays are to win 1 unit. I don't do 1-2-3 unit plays, because if I like a play, I play it, if I don't, I don't. Again, I just like to keep it simple
  • Each unit for me starts out at a static value of 2.5% of my total bankroll (40 units x 2.5% = 100%) and this static value doesn't change (ie I don't risk more if my bankroll increases nor do I risk less if my bankroll decreases. I know this is controversial to some, but it works for me, as I am a long game player and don't sweat a few bad weeks nor do I get too excited over a few good ones
  • All of my record keeping is pretty straightforward as again, everything is to win 1 unit, so if I play a ML at 128 like I did with UNC earlier today, it is risk 1.28 to win 1
  • Main thing for me is you gotta have a "WHY". Also, slow and steady wins the race, keeping my unit size constant the entire season, no reloading, as that takes away the "safety net" and causes me to treat this with more diligence just like I do with my investments vs just taking the attitude that if I blow it, I will just dump more in...I don't like losing money, it isn't fun, and I didn't get to where I am by being ok with losing money.
  • So, what is my "WHY"?..I do this not only because I enjoy the adrenaline rush and the ego boost that comes from winning cold hard cash, but my WHY comes down to the things that consistently winning on a long term basis allows me to do like take my lady on very nice vacations like our upcoming honeymoon in Fiji, so that we can create lasting memories. Call me a sap, but you gotta have a "WHY" as that changes the game in more ways than one.

Again, nothing groundbreaking, but hope that helps gives you a little insight into my thought process as we enter the 2nd most wonderful time of the year (March Madness still number 1 for me!)

Later,
CB
 
PappyOSU said:
Best of luck this year carolinablue. You are a stud capper and will be reading your thread each week.

I feel bad for your bookie...... wait a second, no I dont. HA

LFG
Click to expand...
Appreciate the kind words Pappy! You added a tremendous amount of value and insight into the forum last season and I am looking forward to checking out your threads each week this season!
 
Decided to jump on the UNC ML at 128 over at Bookmaker as I didn't think the ML would come in at under 130. I will also probably jump on the team total over as I expect it to be low 30's. I must caveat that I am an unapolagetic homer but I do think that as long as our defense is not horrible, we should be able to outscore South Carolina with the keys in my mind being whether or not our OL and DL are improved, as if we can get pressure in the backfield it will make our secondary look like a million bucks. Drake will be Drake and I am not worried about our receiver core, because again, Drake will be Drake, and I am cautiously optimistic about our offense, as I expect us to try to get the running game going early and often, while also involving our TEs more, which should open things up for Drake to be well...Drake haha.

9/2
7:30pm UNC ML 128 (Bookmaker)
 
On a side note...I have actually convinced my lady that we should just take a Lyft and head uptown around 3pm so we can pregame bigtime before the game gets underway at 7:30pm. I just need to make sure she actually makes it to the game, so need to figure out a pregame drinking strategy to ensure she has an amazing time but doesn't pass out before kickoff!
 
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