Carolinablue Week 0/1 Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Never been one for much small talk, so here is what I have locked in so far. Note that I will always post the actual lines I got and at which book I got them at so you guys can try to grab the same ones if you are interested, as I try to post right after I play em for the most part.

This year, I will most likely stick to 3 US books, unless I can a random line that is way off at one of the others. This will be my first year going all in on the US books, so hopefully I don't miss much opening line value, but these days the US books do a pretty solid job of opening early, so it shouldn't matter too much, outside of maybe some FCS action here and there. As always, I welcome discussion, questions, thoughts in the thread, so don't hesitate to drop in and speak your mind as all intelligent discourse is welcome (and you too TP!)

Week 0/1 Plays
8/24
12pm Florida State -12.5 112 (FanDuel)
3:30pm McNeese/Tarleton o58 112 (Bookmaker)
12am Hawaii -37.5 110 (FanDuel)
8pm SMU TT o41.5 127 (Bookmaker)


8/29
6pm Howard TT o6.5 145 (Fanatics)
6pm Rutgers -34.5 110 (FanDuel)
7pm Toledo/Duquesne o52.5 110 (FanDuel)
8pm North Dakota State/Colorado o58.5 110 (FanDuel)
8pm Tulane -26.5 110 (FanDuel)
8pm Kansas -43.5 110 (FanDuel)
8pm UNC ML 115 (Bookmaker)
8pm Jacksonville State ML 128 (Bookmaker)
8pm Tulsa -31.5 115 (FanDuel)

Thought I had posted SJSU +1.5 122 but don’t see it listed here. It’s in the 3Q as I type this. Was at Bookmaker 12:54pm for auditing purposes haha. Currently down 24-21.

8/30
6pm Army -33.5 110 (FanDuel)
9pm Wisconsin -24 110 (DraftKings)

8/31
12pm Louisville -29.5 115 (FanDuel)
12pm Pittsburgh -23.5 120 (Fanatics)
2:30pm Cincy -32.5 115 (FanDuel)
3:30pm UTSA -23 110 (DraftKings)
3:30pm Northwestern ML 145 (Bookmaker)
3:30pm Nebraska/UTEP o48 110 (Bet365)
3:30pm NIU -34.5 112 (FanDuel)
3:30pm Syracuse -15.5 115 (FanDuel)
3:30pm Eastern/UMass o48.5 115 (FanDuel)
3:30pm North Texas +7.5 125 (Bet365)
6pm EKU/Miss State o58.5 115 (FanDuel)
6pm Samford -18 128 (Bookmaker)
6pm Liberty -36.5 110 (FanDuel)
7pm Alabama -30.5 110 (FanDuel)
7pm UNLV/Houston o56 110 (DK and rem TBD)
7:30pm Notre Dame +1.5 120 (FanDuel)
7:30pm Oregon/Idaho o61.5 112 (FanDuel)
8pm Southern Illinois +19.5 115 (FanDuel)
11pm Washington/Weber State o52.5 110 (FanDuel)

9/1
7:30pm USC v LSU o62.5 115 (Fanatics)

Future Play
9/28 UNC ML 115 (Bet365) - 2 units
 
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Lots more to come as below are a few that are under consideration, but no need for me to rush on these as I don't expect the lines to move like some of the ones above...

8/29
UNC (looking for +3.5 at reasonable juice)
Jacksonville State (may take ML, not sure)

8/30
Oklahoma (missed the 41 but like it up to 45 at least)

8/31
Fresno (waiting for 21.5+ but would love +24.5)
Houston v UNLV over (this will most likely be a play but no rush)
Nebraska (I almost jumped at the 27.5 I still see out there, but not a fan of double dipping)


Some others...
SMU v Nevada over (SMU may put up 50+ by themselves)
UNCC (if I can get 10.5 at a reasonable price)
Tenn (maybe if it comes down a bit as I don't like 41.5 as it could easily fall 48-7)
LSU/USC (I know the number has fallen like a rock, but I still like the over, so will be patient here)
Boise/Ga So (like the over here up to about 60 but no rush)
Ga State/GT (same as above)
Ole Miss/Furman (like the over, but the Furman running game burning clock has me hesitant, although Ole Miss might hit 55)
Looking forward to seeing the FBS v FCS lines as I enjoy playing those in Week 0/1
 
Added a unit to my Heels ML play as this is strictly about value as most books sitting at 150+ so taking the 115 now as I expect the line to be at least 3.5-6 by kickoff based on expected results the first few weeks.
 
Just tried to get down on the UNLV v Houston over 56 at DK but got limited to “max wager of $109.99 only”…made me remember why I started fading on DK after I started winning last season. Not sure why they are wasting time limiting me but guess I should be flattered…
 
8/29
8pm North Dakota State/Colorado o58.5 110 (FanDuel)

8/31
7pm UNLV/Houston o56 110 (DK and rem TBD)

I expect both lines to rise by game times and would play both of these into the low 60's (ie 62.5 ish) as I project both to hit 63 min
 
Remainder of my plays will most likely be FBS v FCS along with some team totals and of course I will have a play on the Heels opener (spoiler alert...it ain't gonna be the Gophers!)
 
carolinablue said:
Just tried to get down on the UNLV v Houston over 56 at DK but got limited to “max wager of $109.99 only”…made me remember why I started fading on DK after I started winning last season. Not sure why they are wasting time limiting me but guess I should be flattered…
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Happens to many there unfortunately.

Just take them for as much as you can.

The college kids that work for us are using proxy's right now for MLB.
 
Back to football....

The official start to true CFB excitement for myself is seeing the first CB plays thread of the year.

We're so close!
 
carolinablue said:
8/29
8pm North Dakota State/Colorado o58.5 110 (FanDuel)

8/31
7pm UNLV/Houston o56 110 (DK and rem TBD)

I expect both lines to rise by game times and would play both of these into the low 60's (ie 62.5 ish) as I project both to hit 63 min
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Appreciate when any cappers put out the "would play up to" addendum.

This really helps those tailing.
 
carolinablue said:
I plan to include for all of mine during the season, as I know it’s tough sometimes to catch the early lines week in and week out.
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Week 0/1 Plays
8/24 (Ireland)
12pm Florida State -12.5 112 (FanDuel) - would take up to 13.5

8/29
8pm North Dakota State/Colorado o58.5 110 (FanDuel) - would take up to 62.5

8/30
9pm Wisconsin -24 110 (DraftKings) - wanted 23.5 so would have passed if it was 24.5 b/c value to me is lost over 24

8/31
12pm Louisville -29.5 115 (FanDuel) - would take up to 33.5
3:30pm UTSA -23 110 (DraftKings) - would only take up to 23.5 b/c value to me is lost over that number
3:30pm Nebraska/UTEP o48 110 (Bet365) - would take up to 51.5
3:30pm Syracuse -15.5 115 (FanDuel) - would only take up to 16.5 b/c value to me is lost over that number
3:30pm Eastern/UMass o48.5 115 (FanDuel) - would take up to 50.5
7pm Alabama -30.5 110 (FanDuel) - would take up to 33.5
7pm UNLV/Houston o56 110 (DK and rem TBD) - would take up to 58.5
7:30pm Notre Dame +1.5 120 (FanDuel) - I think they win but no value in ML 108 so took the 1.5 since most places were -1
7:30pm Oregon/Idaho o61.5 112 (FanDuel) - I think Ducks get 62 by themselves so would probably take this up to 68.5 at least
11pm Washington/Weber State o52.5 110 (FanDuel) - would take up to 55.5
 
KJ said:
Here that's like two months of Summer, then Winter, then beginning of Spring....all in the course of a college football season
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Summer, Fall and Winter. It might feel like Spring in California but I think most guys in here who live more east will say January 20th is still mid winter. Lol
 
carolinablue said:
Appreciate it guys! Looking forward to another profitable season focused on those under the radar plays!
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You're a winning capper. Not sure how much your betting unit is. But really eager to see how long FD DK let u bet if u win like u usually do. Everything I've read says you'll get limited very quickly if your betting unit is 50 or more. Hope not. But eager to see what happens. Right now I think BM, BOL and Circa are only places I trust that will let you win some. Of course have missed Pinnacle for years now. To think I once had a local who me a CR account with them. Gl this year.
 
wiseplayer said:
UCLA on deck for the Bows. Any concern they’re looking ahead? I’m wondering if they can score this many in game 1.
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Not my thread, so not my business, but why don’t you take a peek at Delaware State and how they performed last year and the year before and the year before. A true FCS bottom feeder.
 
steponaduck said:
Not my thread, so not my business, but why don’t you take a peek at Delaware State and how they performed last year and the year before and the year before. A true FCS bottom feeder.
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You’re 100% right. It’s not your business. Question was asked to CB.
 
wiseplayer said:
You’re 100% right. It’s not your business. Question was asked to CB.
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We’ll be an ass hole if you want. Or recognize that if you were checking on this game when I posted it two weeks ago. You could have had -27.5 that they hung out there at FD for a while.

I am also likely one of the only people in these forums that has actually watched Delaware state numerous times last season. So your question on “can Hawaii score that many” could attempt to be answered by another guy who knows what he is doing.
 
lvmike32 said:
You're a winning capper. Not sure how much your betting unit is. But really eager to see how long FD DK let u bet if u win like u usually do. Everything I've read says you'll get limited very quickly if your betting unit is 50 or more. Hope not. But eager to see what happens. Right now I think BM, BOL and Circa are only places I trust that will let you win some. Of course have missed Pinnacle for years now. To think I once had a local who me a CR account with them. Gl this year.
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Thanks LV! As you can see above in the thread, DK has already started limiting me as a result of March Madness as we just got them here in NC at the start of MM. No issues with FD at all so going to have a greater portion there this cfb season.
 
wiseplayer said:
UCLA on deck for the Bows. Any concern they’re looking ahead? I’m wondering if they can score this many in game 1.
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All of my plays are numbers based and I don’t buy into a team like Hawaii “looking ahead” as they gave some work to do to recapture that fan base and to get the players back to believing in my opinion, so scheduling DSU ahead of UCLA is the perfect scenario as I see them putting up 50+ against what should be one of the 3 worst teams in all of cfb this year.
 
EKU v Miss St o58.5 115 FD

EKU offense actually fun to watch last year while MSU O should be better with the changes made in personnel and style. Not sold on MSU D as I think EKU should be able to exploit for a few scores and cause some nervousness at least for a half if not longer. Thinking 42-24 type game or maybe a bit wider as EKU wears down in 2H.
 
You guys know I am a favs player but really like this one so locked it in as it might drop below 18 or less in my opinion.

Southern Illinois +19.5 115 FD
 
carolinablue said:
All of my plays are numbers based and I don’t buy into a team like Hawaii “looking ahead” as they gave some work to do to recapture that fan base and to get the players back to believing in my opinion, so scheduling DSU ahead of UCLA is the perfect scenario as I see them putting up 50+ against what should be one of the 3 worst teams in all of cfb this year.
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Great reply. Thats why I asked. Love your thread. Keep up the great work!
 
blowoutgm said:
Nice plays- I'm all over Florida St. in this spot. Good luck this year!
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Appreciate it BOG! I would not be surprised if that one started off kinda slow, but I think that FSU pulls away when all is said and done, so I like laying less than 13 no doubt, but would have also taken it at 13.5, as under 2 TDs is the key number here for me.
 
steponaduck said:
Not my thread, so not my business, but why don’t you take a peek at Delaware State and how they performed last year and the year before and the year before. A true FCS bottom feeder.
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Yes! They are picked dead last for the conference this season.
 
Looks like I jumped too early on FSU as it is now -11 at BM with 10 at 124. Thought it would hit 14 before 10 so swing and a miss there. No problem calling myself out on my early line calls as they pay out more often than not for me, but missing out on value or key numbers always stings.
 
carolinablue said:
Looks like I jumped too early on FSU as it is now -11 at BM with 10 at 124. Thought it would hit 14 before 10 so swing and a miss there. No problem calling myself out on my early line calls as they pay out more often than not for me, but missing out on value or key numbers always stings.
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Aye, no one can hit them all perfectly.

Let's see how the next 10 days plays out.
 
Curious if anyone out there consistently uses BAS for cfb as I have never played with them, but open to hearing if you guys think they are worth adding to the rotation this season, as I am going to drop DK after my initial plays clear, as I tend to have a short leash when it comes to being limited.
 
carolinablue said:
Curious if anyone out there consistently uses BAS for cfb as I have never played with them, but open to hearing if you guys think they are worth adding to the rotation this season, as I am going to drop DK after my initial plays clear, as I tend to have a short leash when it comes to being limited.
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You bet pretty much everything straight so you should be good with BAS on college football.
 
carolinablue said:
Thanks for the response WP, can you elaborate a bit for me…
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I’ve never had a problem with them. They’re basically the same as 5Dimes was. Never had a problem with payouts.
Their options are straight bets, teasers, parlays, props and live bets. I’m sure if they feel like they have taken on sharp money, they’ll make adjustments.
I’ve always said this. Spread your action so you’re not killing 1 book. All of these books will limit you once they are paying out too often.
 
wiseplayer said:
I’ve never had a problem with them. They’re basically the same as 5Dimes was. Never had a problem with payouts.
Their options are straight bets, teasers, parlays, props and live bets. I’m sure if they feel like they have taken on sharp money, they’ll make adjustments.
I’ve always said this. Spread your action so you’re not killing 1 book. All of these books will limit you once they are paying out too often.
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Appreciate the detail! I made the mistake of giving some of the second tier a shot a while back and I got limited at pretty much all of em and now with DK already limiting me, it is causing me to keep my eyes out for other options.

Not seeing deposit options past crypto at BAS so need to look more into them, as I would be open if they had multiple free options like BM FD and others have. Thanks again for taking the to respond!
 
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