Carolina Blue Week 1 College Football

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Man, it feels good to be back here in the cfb forum and I am looking forward to another great season as we approach my favorite time of the year. Will post all my Week 1 plays here same day that I play them and will also post information and thoughts in subsequent posts in the thread. Here's to a profitable season for all!

All plays will be at BOL to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted. I do have a little change in 5D to play some FCS, so will include those in my unit count but not in my main play list since the limits are so small over there on the FCS right now.


Week 1 Plays

BOL SPREAD PLAYS TO WIN 1 UNIT
LOUISVILLE -38 -110
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN +21 105
HOUSTON +11.5 120
FIU +10.5 120
IDAHO -7 110

5D SPREAD PLAYS TO WIN 1 UNIT
ARKANSAS -20.5 130

BOL TEAM TOTALS TO WIN 1 UNIT
LOUISVILLE O48 120
FIU O27 110


BOL TOTALS TO WIN 1 UNIT
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 180 Toledo/Arkansas St over 62 -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 168 New Mexico State/UTEP over 61½ -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 134 Indiana/FIU over 61 -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 188 San Jose State/Tulsa over 69 -110 for GAME

5D SPREAD PLAYS TO WIN 0.4 UNITS (LIMITS)
Charleston Southern +20 120*
North Carolina A&T -47 -120*
Grambling State -47½ -120*

BOL ML DOG FREE PLAYS
COLORADO STATE +265
HOUSTON +375
WYOMING +320
NORTH TEXAS +290
SAN JOSE STATE +190
SOUTHERN MISS +210

BOL SPREAD FREE PLAYS TO WIN 1 UNIT
S. CAROLINA +4.5 110




BOL FUTURES
UNC to win Coastal +375
Miami to win Coastal +210
Ohio to win Mac East +300
Navy to win AAC West +550
 
Last edited:
Charlotte football news

Confirmed via multiple sources on twitter that two projected starters in the secondary, Devin Pearson and Tank Norman have been dismissed from the 49ers football program.

Tank Norman
• Redshirt Junior
• 3rd all-time with 142 career tackles
• Holds school record with 104 solo tackles
• Played in 34 straight games
• Tied for 3rd with 3 career INTs


Devin Pearson
• Redshirt Sophomore
• Returning Starter in Secondary
• 2 Year Total of 94 Career Tackles
 
5Dimes small (0.4 unit) play due to site limits
Pending 8/27/16 7:30pm College Extra Football 401 Charleston Southern +20 -120* vs North Dakota State
 
traderjoe13 said:
its at 17.5. what do your numbers say?
Click to expand...

When I saw it at +20.5 120 a few weeks ago I actually tried to play it 3 times to win 100 each time and they actually let me hit it twice before the line changed to 17.5 120 but only one of the two actually ended up in my confirmed plays as the 2nd one didn't make it in time before being confirmed, so that is why I just have the 1 small play on the game.

I actually think the style of play of CS keeps this one within 2 scores but I typically only play games that have a variance of 6 or more vs my target number (+14), hence the reason I wanted the 20.5 but not the 17.5.

Hope that helps!
 
M.W. said:
Traderjoe, a $60 bet typically moves an FBS-FCS line 1.5 points.
Click to expand...

Yeah, this was one of those games where I knew I wasn't going to get a full unit down on as they gave me the "limit of 100" message even though it wasn't actually listed as such on the game itself, when I tried to put down more on my first attempt. Tried to go the multiple times route ie waiting 60 seconds in between but that didn't work either, so it is what it is on this one. Also didn't like the fact that it was static at 120 as I would have taken 20 110 but that wasn't an option, but I still like my chances at this line.
 
Good luck on that Baptist play.

I'm leaning your way on that Louisville game. Thanks for the additional info.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if the Ville moves up closer to 40 once the hype starts up in full swing next month, so figured that is the only one I needed to hit early at BOL.

Right now have 8-10 on the pare down list but will wait until fall practice before locking in others unless a crazy line move in my favor before then catches my eye.

Arkansas line at 5D has value vs BOL but other than that, not much difference across the board at this point.
 
Just added...
Arkansas -20.5 130 at 5D to win 1 unit.

Week 1, I don't mind buying on more games than normal if needed, in order to get over or under key numbers and also from a psychological standpoint to not end in a push first games of the season. Believe me, definitely not the best route from an ROI standpoint after the first week, but worth it from a mental health standpoint, which is why you will see more buys from me in week 1 than any other week.
 
carolinablue said:
Just added...
Arkansas -20.5 130 at 5D to win 1 unit.

Week 1, I don't mind buying on more games than normal if needed, in order to get over or under key numbers and also from a psychological standpoint to not end in a push first games of the season. Believe me, definitely not the best route from an ROI standpoint after the first week, but worth it from a mental health standpoint, which is why you will see more buys from me in week 1 than any other week.
Click to expand...

thank you for the response blue!!
 
carolinablue said:
Yes as I see Louisville getting 60+ and UNCC not breaking 20. Would play up to 40.5 as I have 47-48 being MOV something along the lines of 65-17 give or take.
Click to expand...
ok thanks for your input carolinablue..even though we have different teams when it comes down to college hardwood lol. i'm not gonna buy to -38 -120 as i can bet -38.5 -105
 
Looking over my potential MAC plays now so may lock in one or two as I sense a couple lines may move by the weekend.
 
bluedevilboy said:
Is it a safe bet to assume Louisville is your top selection for Week 1 CFB?
Click to expand...

Hope this doesn't come off the wrong way as that is not my intention by any means, but I actually don't view my plays as good, better, best or 1 star to 5 star or anything like that. I honestly only play what meets or exceeds the variance against the point of value I place each game at. In other words, all of my plays can be considered equal for the most part, although some of course will be more above variance than others, but at the end of the day, it's all about whether or not a play makes the cut. I don't rank them or anything like that.

The only reason Louisville is the only one I have locked in at BOL so far is because that one met the variance target and it would take a major catastrophe in fall practice to change that, plus I get to hear a lot of local stuff about the 49ers here in Charlotte, so I was able to get ahead of the curve so to speak in terms of researching that team compared to all the others plus I don't expect the line to move any in my favor so I took it before it started going in the opposite direction, as I figured the 38.5 was coming and like I noted before I wouldn't be surprised to see 40 in a few weeks once fall practices get up and running.

Right now I have about 8 games I am keyed in on but depending on how the lines move in August, some will most likely fall off the list and who knows, 1 or 2 may end up being a better play than Louisville by the time I lock it in, only time will tell.

Appreciate the discussion and looking forward to seeing activity start to pick up here since we are now less than a month away from the start of the season. Good stuff BDB, keep it coming, as I am always open to answering any questions anyone may have, as I enjoying helping out at least a little whenever I can.
 
Already played 38 110 as noted above, but would still play current 39 110 if I hadn't gotten in before it moved.
 
Just an fyi - BOL just let me know that they expect to have MLs and point buying available by the end of next week give or take a few days.
 
carolinablue said:
Just added...
Arkansas -20.5 130 at 5D to win 1 unit.

Week 1, I don't mind buying on more games than normal if needed, in order to get over or under key numbers and also from a psychological standpoint to not end in a push first games of the season. Believe me, definitely not the best route from an ROI standpoint after the first week, but worth it from a mental health standpoint, which is why you will see more buys from me in week 1 than any other week.
Click to expand...

Looks like I caught a solid break getting this one early at 5D with the La Tech QB situation where it currently is as I just got back in town and saw the line is now at 24.
 
clowncar said:
Ya Higgins messed up
Click to expand...

Haven't heard anything regarding consequences as the Holtz quote was pretty standard and left things open, but I expect they would have to suspend him for the opener as an example to both him and the team, but stranger things have happened I guess.
 
Not sure how long ago today they were released, but just happened to login and see that totals were up at BOL so went ahead and locked in 4 OVERS

All plays at -110 to win 1 unit
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 180 Toledo/Arkansas St over 62 -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 168 New Mexico State/UTEP over 61½ -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 134 Indiana/FIU over 61 -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 188 San Jose State/Tulsa over 69 -110 for GAME
 
B.A.R. said:
Good to see you around bud, GL this year, Good heads up on the totals.
Click to expand...

If one of you guys get the chance, can you paste the BOL totals in the thread I just made. Was about to do it, but just got on a call so gotta focus on real life a few more minutes before I call it a day, thanks!
 
Looks like all of the numbers are starting to move around pretty good so definitely might want to get on them now if you have a strike point in mind.
 
From the Shreveport Times, La Tech starting LG injured during scrimmage...

RUSTON — A group of several Louisiana Tech players and members of the medical staff huddled around O'Shea Dugas near midfield of Joe Aillet Stadium. Everyone held their breath as the Bulldogs' talented sophomore left guard writhed on the ground in pain.

The Freshman All-America had to be carted off the field and left to seek medical attention in an ambulance following a lower leg injury that soured Tech's 104-play scrimmage Saturday night.

Dugas suffered the injury in the second half of the scrimmage and had his leg splinted before he was carted off.

"I don't know what's going to happen with O'Shea. As I learn we'll keep everybody updated," Tech coach Skip Holtz said. "They wanted to put him in a split for precautionary and where he is right now. We'll find out the seriousness of that injury."

"Hate scrimmaging this time of year. You just hold your breath and hope nobody gets injured. You can't have your first live work at Arkansas. We have to knock on wood and pray and hope he's going to be OK."

Before Dugas' injury, all eyes were on several positions, most notably quarterbacks and running backs on offense, and the entire defense as the Bulldogs replace 13 starters from 2015.
 
From the Shreveport Times...
As expected, Higgins won't be suspended, just won't start vs Arkansas.

RUSTON — Louisiana Tech quarterback Ryan Higgins won't start the season opener at Arkansas, but his punishment doesn't include a suspension, Bulldogs coach Skip Holtz announced Sunday.

Higgins, who was arrested on charges of DWI and speeding early Friday, is subject to a variety of disciplinary measures from the incident, which includes counseling, drinking and driving education and community service.

When asked if Higgins would be available against Arkansas, Holtz said "it will be dependent on how he handles it."

"I'm not suspending him or kicking him off the team. His punishment is he will not start at Arkansas," Holtz said. "I am not looking to throw the baby out with the bathwater. At the same point in time, we have to be firm and stern with the decision we make."
 
From the Charleston Post and Courier....Charleston Southern Football News....

No longer can the Charleston Southern football program use the mantra of “no respect.” Or can it?

Since head coach Jamey Chadwell arrived on the scene as the school’s head coach prior to the 2013 season, the Buccaneers have used a perceived lack of respect by its opponents, media, and the general Lowcountry public as the primary source of motivation.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are enjoying their most successful run over the last three seasons, posting a 28-10 record and winning the Big South Conference title last season. CSU has knocked off crosstown rival The Citadel four consecutive times, including twice last season. The Buccaneers also have beaten perennial FCS power Coastal Carolina twice in the last three years.



If preseason polls are a sign of respect, CSU has arrived. The Buccaneers are ranked in the top 10 of both FCS national polls, and are the overwhelming pick to repeat as Big South Conference champions.

However, Chadwell seems to have plenty of ammunition when it comes to motivating his team this fall. The “chip on the shoulder” is still alive and well.

We still have the same players that weren’t good enough to play anywhere else, at least at any of the bigger schools,” Chadwell said. “We are not going to be overly more talented than anyone we play this year. We have good players, for sure, but we still realize that for us to be successful, we have to play with that chip. The chip is our standard now. Having the right mindset in every game is very important for this program.”

The Buccaneers may not be more talented than most of their opponents but the 2016 roster certainly is one of the more talented rosters in school history.

A trio of running backs, led by preseason Big South offensive player of the year Darius Hammond, combine for more than 2,000 yards last season. Hammond led the way with 856 yards, followed by Mike Holloway (731 yards, 12 TD) and Ben Robinson (422 yards). Barring injury, all three will likely end up in the top six of CSU’s all-time rushers. Holloway, in fact, needs only 459 yards to become the school’s career rushing leader.

“We are very fortunate at running back, no question,” Chadwell says. “And the best thing about all three is they are very unselfish. They just want to win and they support each other so well.”

The running game is clearly the strength of the CSU offense, especially with three returning starters along the offensive front. The top returner is left tackle Erik Austell, a preseason FCS All-American. Center Jackson Williamson and guard Frank Cirone also return as starters.

“We feel pretty good about the starting unit up front but our lack of experienced depth is something we need to work on during camp,” Chadwell said.

Redshirt junior Kyle Copeland enters the season as the starter at quarterback. Copeland is the lone signal caller on the roster with game experience, having played in 17 games. Junior college transfer Robert Mitchell and redshirt freshman London Johnson will compete for playing time as well.

“He’s very capable,” Chadwell said of Copeland. “His big problem in the past has been a lack of confidence. We have noticed through the summer that he has matured. Talent is not his problem. It’s been more between the ears. He’s the most experienced guy we have so we hope he is ready to compete, but at the same time, we need other guys to be ready. We haven’t made it through a season with an injury to our quarterback in my three years here. We need the other guys to make a big push.”

Copeland has come to understand that his job is not to make every play offensively, especially with the talented skill players around him.

“It’s my job to make sure I get the ball in the hands of the guys who can make plays, either the running backs or the receivers,” Copeland said. “We have a lot of guys in this offense who can make plays.”

Senior Kolton Korn and junior Kenny Dinkins are the top returners at receiver, but the group is talented and deep with several newcomers expected to make an impact.

CSU’s “blue swarm” defense has set the standard in the Big South over the last two seasons. The unit was one of the best nationally a year ago and returns a bevy of talent and experience up front and in the secondary.

Junior tackle Anthony Ellis was named the Big South preseason defensive player of the year in July. Ellis had 17.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks in 2015. Bandit end Solomon Brown, the 2015 Big South freshman of the year, totaled 69 tackles, 12 tackles for loss and seven sacks.

Junior Zane Cruz is the lone returning linebacker with any significant experience and had 64 tackles a year ago. Senior safety DJ Curl and senior corner Troy McGowens anchor a veteran and deep secondary.

“When we talk about a chip on the shoulder, that’s our defense,” Chadwell said. “They were unbelievable all last year but in their last game they gave up almost 600 yards. We hope that bad taste is still in their mouths and they are ready to make a statement this season.”

Sophomore Tyler Tekac is back as the team’s place-kicker, making seven of 11 kicks last season. Senior Truett Burns is a fourth-year starter at punter while long snapper Joseph Smith is considered the best in the Big South.

Hammond, named the preseason all-conference selection as a kick returner and punt returner, handles the return game. Hammond averaged 15.5 yards per punt return last season.
 
More Charleston Southern news from the SC Times and Democrat...

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – For the first time, defending conference champion Charleston Southern University has been tabbed the preseason favorite in the Big South Conference.

The Buccaneers, who reached the quarterfinal round of the FCS Playoffs last year as the No. 8 national seed, enter 2016 with 44 letter winners returning, including 19 starters. Fourth-year head coach Jamey Chadwell’s squad finished last year ranked as high as sixth in the final top 25 polls, went 10-3 overall and 6-0 in conference games -- just the second team in league annals to post a 6-0 Big South record.

Charleston Southern received 16 of 18 first-place votes cast and 106 total points to win the Big South football championship this season. Voting was by media and head coaches.
 
Will be interesting to see what happens with Higgins as far as whether it is one drive or a quarter or a half. I mean it could be one scripted play drive for the other guy and that way Holtz can keep giving Higgins all the first team reps.
 
clowncar said:
Will be interesting to see what happens with Higgins as far as whether it is one drive or a quarter or a half. I mean it could be one scripted play drive for the other guy and that way Holtz can keep giving Higgins all the first team reps.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he only sat a series or maybe a quarter as unfortunately I think it may come down to how LT performs out of the gate. If they get behind by a couple of scores early or if they aren't able to put together a couple first downs, I could see Higgins getting in there sooner vs later. On a side note, I think the line on the fav has gotten out of hand a bit as I don't see any value on Arky at the current 26 that is on the board.
 
Here are the dogs I am still scoping out to round out the card. I know most of these probably aren't very popular based on what I have read but they are all still in the running for a number of reasons. Going to wait until closer to game time to see where the lines go on some of these as I think I may get more value if I wait it out.

Here are a few notes on the lines as most involve just crossing a number to get an added score in the back pocket at same cost as present line...

Tulane if it gets to 18.5 would be nice as worst case I see 28-10 or 35-17

FIU at 10.5 at home would be solid in what should be a shootout

Ball State at 4.5 ideal but really think they have a shot to win SU in what should be a 1 possession game either way

Kansas State at 17.5 would be very tempting as I think they can keep this within 3 scores

WMU got away from me as I was hoping for 7.5 but it is now down to 5.5 so no value IMO anymore

BGSU might be worth a shot at 28.5 to make it a 5 score spread, even though I might be the only one on that island

Kent might be worth a shot at 21.5...see island quote above

Texas State at 21.5 would be interesting and potentially ripe for backdoor cover at worst

Wyoming at 11.5 with the late start time could be worth a look but not sure if it will head back that way
 
carolinablue said:
From the Shreveport Times...
As expected, Higgins won't be suspended, just won't start vs Arkansas.

RUSTON — Louisiana Tech quarterback Ryan Higgins won't start the season opener at Arkansas, but his punishment doesn't include a suspension, Bulldogs coach Skip Holtz announced Sunday.
Click to expand...

The problem is that Higgins isn't very good. However, he is at least a known quantity, and this line's way too high. Should be around 17 or 18.
 
Tar Heels Prep for Half Without Mack Hollins
Greg Barnes
GREG BARNES
1:06 PM
The senior wide receiver's absence will be felt more on special teams than on offense.

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – As North Carolina turns its attention to Georgia, wide receiver Mack Hollins prepares to miss the first half of his senior season opener due to a targeting foul committed in the Russell Athletic Bowl in December.

With eight minutes to play in the third quarter, UNC quarterback Marquise Williams connected with A-back Austin Proehl on a swing pass into the left flat for a one-yard gain. Hollins, who was lined up as the outside receiver on the play side, pushed up field five yards at the snap before turning back to block for Proehl and making contact with Baylor safety Chance Waz in the head and neck area.

The game officials flagged Hollins for targeting, which resulted not only in an ejection, but also in a suspension for the opening half of 2016. NCAAA rule 9-1-4 states “if the foul occurs in the second half of the last game of the season, players with remaining eligibility shall serve the suspension during the postseason or the first game of the following season.”

Targeting (Rule 9-1-3) is defined as making forcible contact against an opponent with the crown of the helmet and is expanded in Rule 9-1-4 to include no contact to the head or neck area of a defenseless opponent with the helmet, forearm, hand, fist, elbow or shoulder. Former ACC Coordinator of Football Officiating Doug Rhoads categorized the hit during the ESPN broadcast as a blind-side block, which is one of the nine indicators of a defenseless player.
His absence in the first half against Georgia on Sept. 3 has prompted more concern on special teams than at wide receiver.

“Mack’s a starter on four special teams,” head coach Larry Fedora said on his radio show on Tuesday night. “We’ve had to change our depth in all four of those units to make sure a guy’s going to be there for the first half, and he’s got to have a backup in the first half if he gets hurt, so you’ve really prepared three guys for one position.”

UNC wide receivers coach Gunter Brewer teaches his position group to play all three receiver positions, thereby allowing for more options to fill the temporary void at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

Hollins, who caught 30 passes for 745 yards and eight touchdowns in 2015, will be allowed to participate in pregame warmup activities, in accordance with Rule 2-27-12-c. Prior to kickoff, he must leave the field of play under team supervision until halftime.

When asked if he would like to give his opinion on the targeting call, Fedora replied, “No, it’s not going to do anybody any good for me to give my opinion.”
 
M.W. said:
The problem is that Higgins isn't very good. However, he is at least a known quantity, and this line's way too high. Should be around 17 or 18.
Click to expand...

Definitely hear ya on that one as I consider him serviceable but given that the other guys have probably less than 10 snaps total between them, I just don't see how they are gonna move it much against the Arky defense whether Higgins comes in after a drive, a quarter, or whatever. I am basically counting on Razorback D to cause havoc and take pressure off the offense with some short field situations combined with forcing some turnovers as I just don't see this as a good matchup for LT. With that said I wouldn't take Arky at the current line but I feel fine with getting them under 3TDs before all the Higgins stuff came out. Good luck this season, appreciate the discussion!
 
Nice start for Charleston Southern. Playing pretty physical up front so far defensively. Worry they wear down eventually if the offense can't get first downs. I like the defensive strategy they are employing ... completely loading up to stop the power run game and daring NDSU to beat them with the QB.

Just keep playing hard.
 
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