depositexpert
Member
Your boys are playing LSU this weekend and I always love to hear your insight on what you think about them in big games. Spreads currently 11, thoughts?
Calling Jimmydafreak...
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KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
Jimmy..... Cmon down! 
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CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Not Jimmy, but i'll toss in a few thoughts..
At first glance, just knowing the history of this rivalry, LSU jumps out. Number just seems nuts when you look at how the past 10 or so have been lined. The SEC is just weird this year. Real down year. Neither team has a win that is really that impressive. The way in which these teams have won have been impressive at times but I don't think there are a lot of quality teams in the conference this year. Auburn and Mizzou could possibly meet in Atlanta, huh?!?
I haven't seen a ton of LSU this year but the bits I have, I haven't come away impressed. I think them being pretty down this year makes the conference feel more down than it may be, not real sure.. Mett hasn't looked very good to me. He has the arm to make all the throws but still seems like he makes a lot of poor decisions. He's been efficient though so maybe it's just he hasn't looked great the past couple games, could be regressing for some reason or it could just be a burp. Hill is Hill, he's a monster. Not sure how to gauge their OL play, just haven't seen enough or paid enough attention. You know the talent is there but not sure about continuity, etc. LSU has been really, really good in year's past with Jordan Jefferson and Lee at QB so pretty much any passing threat at all that Mett provides, and he does, is an upgrade over year's past. I think their WR's present a real challenge to the Bama secondary. I'm pretty nervous about Bama's corner opposite of Belue. I was really impressed by frosh Eddie Jackson (#4) earlier in the year when he got some major PT but I think a small injury and some lackluster practice weeks for him and maybe just not knowing the defense well enough have relegated him to mop up duty past few weeks. Bradley Sylve has looked pretty good but is battling an ankle and Cyrus Jones has come on late and looked good last week. All three guys have really good upsides but I'm just not real confident in any of them. Beckham presents a real challenge if he gets matched up on them. Losing Sunseri at the back hurts from a versatility and leadership standpoint but Landon Collins being on the field more is awesome. That dude is a beast. I think a lot comes down to how well Cameron protects Mett with the gameplan and can Hill move the ball well enough to keep Mett out of predictable passing plays in 3rd in long. I think running will be tough sledding but think they will indeed have a good gameplan.
On offense, Bama is really, really good. The OL has really been great since a really poor couple game start and has really developed great continuity. AJ is AJ and he has a really talented group at WR, especially with Cooper rounding into form and posing a threat to score every time he touches it. I think a lot of what I mentioned about keys for LSU on offense hold true for Bama as well. I think that Bama is better running it, marginally, but has a big edge throwing it. I can't even name a player in the LSU secondary this year (I don't watch a ton of football like I used to, though) but it's just odd for me to think they don't have early draft picks out there - or if they do, I'm naive.
Both teams are really explosive on special teams and have really solid units. I think that aspect of Bama's game is something I haven't seen as a true weapon in Saban's tenure until this year.
I tend to lean to this one being a rare one where it may be higher scoring than it has been in year's past. I think LSU has potential in the passing game to get some big plays as there has been some confusion at the back for Bama and they have explosive guys. I think Bama can both grind more effectively and has that same big play potential. I couldn't lay 10.5 or 11. I think it's realistic to thin LSU gets 17 more often than not and then you are going to have to be confident which Bama gets to at least 28, which I think they can and should here too. LSU is the one team in the conference that can stand with Bama from a physicality and athletic standpoint and you know they will be up for this one. I think we see scoring in the high 40's or low 50's and I think that total could come out a score lower than that, if history is any indicator. Lot of variables here, if I were to get some action, I'd prob look at the props market when it comes out. Bound to be lots of choices and I'd think some pretty nice opportunities to get involved there. Should be a fun game!
Hope all you guys are doing well! I'll be around this week to shoot the breeze and hope to get some QT with Twink :cigarguy:
At first glance, just knowing the history of this rivalry, LSU jumps out. Number just seems nuts when you look at how the past 10 or so have been lined. The SEC is just weird this year. Real down year. Neither team has a win that is really that impressive. The way in which these teams have won have been impressive at times but I don't think there are a lot of quality teams in the conference this year. Auburn and Mizzou could possibly meet in Atlanta, huh?!?
I haven't seen a ton of LSU this year but the bits I have, I haven't come away impressed. I think them being pretty down this year makes the conference feel more down than it may be, not real sure.. Mett hasn't looked very good to me. He has the arm to make all the throws but still seems like he makes a lot of poor decisions. He's been efficient though so maybe it's just he hasn't looked great the past couple games, could be regressing for some reason or it could just be a burp. Hill is Hill, he's a monster. Not sure how to gauge their OL play, just haven't seen enough or paid enough attention. You know the talent is there but not sure about continuity, etc. LSU has been really, really good in year's past with Jordan Jefferson and Lee at QB so pretty much any passing threat at all that Mett provides, and he does, is an upgrade over year's past. I think their WR's present a real challenge to the Bama secondary. I'm pretty nervous about Bama's corner opposite of Belue. I was really impressed by frosh Eddie Jackson (#4) earlier in the year when he got some major PT but I think a small injury and some lackluster practice weeks for him and maybe just not knowing the defense well enough have relegated him to mop up duty past few weeks. Bradley Sylve has looked pretty good but is battling an ankle and Cyrus Jones has come on late and looked good last week. All three guys have really good upsides but I'm just not real confident in any of them. Beckham presents a real challenge if he gets matched up on them. Losing Sunseri at the back hurts from a versatility and leadership standpoint but Landon Collins being on the field more is awesome. That dude is a beast. I think a lot comes down to how well Cameron protects Mett with the gameplan and can Hill move the ball well enough to keep Mett out of predictable passing plays in 3rd in long. I think running will be tough sledding but think they will indeed have a good gameplan.
On offense, Bama is really, really good. The OL has really been great since a really poor couple game start and has really developed great continuity. AJ is AJ and he has a really talented group at WR, especially with Cooper rounding into form and posing a threat to score every time he touches it. I think a lot of what I mentioned about keys for LSU on offense hold true for Bama as well. I think that Bama is better running it, marginally, but has a big edge throwing it. I can't even name a player in the LSU secondary this year (I don't watch a ton of football like I used to, though) but it's just odd for me to think they don't have early draft picks out there - or if they do, I'm naive.
Both teams are really explosive on special teams and have really solid units. I think that aspect of Bama's game is something I haven't seen as a true weapon in Saban's tenure until this year.
I tend to lean to this one being a rare one where it may be higher scoring than it has been in year's past. I think LSU has potential in the passing game to get some big plays as there has been some confusion at the back for Bama and they have explosive guys. I think Bama can both grind more effectively and has that same big play potential. I couldn't lay 10.5 or 11. I think it's realistic to thin LSU gets 17 more often than not and then you are going to have to be confident which Bama gets to at least 28, which I think they can and should here too. LSU is the one team in the conference that can stand with Bama from a physicality and athletic standpoint and you know they will be up for this one. I think we see scoring in the high 40's or low 50's and I think that total could come out a score lower than that, if history is any indicator. Lot of variables here, if I were to get some action, I'd prob look at the props market when it comes out. Bound to be lots of choices and I'd think some pretty nice opportunities to get involved there. Should be a fun game!
Hope all you guys are doing well! I'll be around this week to shoot the breeze and hope to get some QT with Twink :cigarguy:
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'll chime in as well. To echo CrimsonK, LSU's WR are a mismatch for Bama's corners. And Mett has the ability to exploit it, just depends on what kind of game he's having and how much pressure Bama can get on him. LSU always plays Bama tough, because more than any team we play, they are able to be multiple on offense. Bama likes to get certain personnel on the field on defense based on situation, and LSU continually has been effective throwing when we have run personnel and running when we have pass personnel. Since Saban got to Bama, the margin of victory has been less than 10, save the championship game when we had 6 weeks of prep. Even if LSU is a little down, this will be their best effort of the season. No way I could lay DD's. Just my $0.02. I'll be around all week, also looking for some QT with Twink
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
There is an awful lot to talk about in this match up, but I'll try to convey my thoughts as succinctly as possible. I will break this up into four parts: my thoughts on Alabama, my thoughts on LSU, last season's game, and my thoughts on the upcoming match up.
I'll begin with Alabama. Pretty much everything I said about Alabama in the preseason has come (or is in the process) of coming to fruition. I said that this would be the best Alabama team (certainly the most talented team) in the Saban era. I know how painful that is for the "Alabama fatigue" crowd to hear, but it is the truth. I also said that Alabama would have the best offense in school history, and one of the best in the nation; that by season's end they would have one of the best offensive lines in the country; that they won't lose a game (I bet OVER 11.5 wins @ + 170 or +180, can't remember exactly, and I bet that they would win the BCS National Championship). Suffice to say, I don't believe for one second that Alabama will lose this game. I also said before the season began that - aside from non-conference patsy games in which you should always fade Alabama - I was looking to fade Alabama against Ole Miss and LSU. Had it not been for bad non-touchback call on a punt late in the 4th quarter (I was sitting right at the goal line), I would have hit my Ole Miss bet.
While I believe that Alabama is good enough offensively in both phases that they can score virtually every time they have the ball on almost everyone in college football, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here. The last 4 offensive Picasso's were turned in against the likes of Georgia State, Kentucky, Arkansas & Tennessee. Clearly LSU cannot be lumped in with those college football bottom feeders.
Over the years I have probably been one of the most critical Alabama fans of Alabama's quarterbacks. John Parker Wilson was clearly all Saban had to work with he arrived, and the same can be said of Greg McElroy. And while I think McElroy was a slight improvement over Wilson, I never thought he was a good QB. AJ McCarron was the first QB to start under Saban that was recruited by Saban, and clearly he is a huge improvement over his predecessors. It was obvious McCarron's redshirt year (2009) that he was the best QB on the roster. Alabama won the national championship that year despite McElroy's mostly inept play. In 2010 Alabama's season was effectively over after they lost to LSU. At that point there was no longer any reason to continue to play McElroy IMO (because everyone knew McCarron was the much better QB), yet Saban remained loyal to him the rest of the season.
I regurgitate all of this for a couple of reasons. First of all we all know how important QB play is in today's game, and McCarron is the biggest reason that Alabama has been able to take their offense to the next level. I would argue getting rid of Jim McElwain as the offensive coordinator was the second. The second reason I bring this up is because when I proceed to point out McCarron's weaknesses and how poorly he's played in big games (save for the two national championships games in which he performed brilliantly), people won't think I'm a McCarron hater, because I certainly am not. But prior to this season, the four games in which Alabama had struggled, the common denominator has been poor QB play - the 2011 9-6 loss to LSU, the 2012 21-17 win over LSU, the 29-24 loss to Texas A&M, and the 2012 32-28 win over Georgia. In all four of those games, McCarron has largely buckled under the pressure of the moment. The release of that pressure was evident when the tears started flowing after last season's dramatic win over LSU. Seriously, how many times have you seen a QB cry after a big win? The answer for me is never. Now I'm not making light of his expression of emotion after the game, but I think it is indicative of how much pressure he was under.
After McCarron lead Alabama on the last minute game-winning drive against LSU last season, the media was fawning all over him and declared him a Heisman Candidate. I had to shake my head at the spectacle of it all and wondered how McCarron's worst game of the season would make him a Heisman candidate? If anything I thought that game should have eliminated him from contention. The bottom line is had he not played so poorly the entire game (mainly the 2nd half), a dramatic last second drive would not have been necessary.
Conversely, most of the times McCarron has had extra time to prepare for big games, he has played exceedingly well such as the national championship games and the Texas A&M game this season. With that in mind, it is worth noting that McCarron has had an extra week to heal and prepare for this game.
So the big question for me in this game is which AJ McCarron will we see in this game? Will we see the QB that has been overwhelmed by the moment, or will we see the calm, cool and collected AJ McCarron we saw against Notre Dame? Aside from the extra preparation time I mentioned, I tend to lean toward latter for three reasons. The first is the game will be in Tuscaloosa so that will definitely help alleviate some of the pressure. The second reason I lean toward McCarron having a good game is his big-game experience. Obviously the more big games you play in, the more acclimated you become to the pressure of playing in them. And lastly, I lean toward McCarron having a good game because I think it's clear that LSU's defense is just not as formidable as it has been in year's past. For these reasons, I think the odds favor McCarron playing very well in this game.
I'll add to this write up as time allows.
I'll begin with Alabama. Pretty much everything I said about Alabama in the preseason has come (or is in the process) of coming to fruition. I said that this would be the best Alabama team (certainly the most talented team) in the Saban era. I know how painful that is for the "Alabama fatigue" crowd to hear, but it is the truth. I also said that Alabama would have the best offense in school history, and one of the best in the nation; that by season's end they would have one of the best offensive lines in the country; that they won't lose a game (I bet OVER 11.5 wins @ + 170 or +180, can't remember exactly, and I bet that they would win the BCS National Championship). Suffice to say, I don't believe for one second that Alabama will lose this game. I also said before the season began that - aside from non-conference patsy games in which you should always fade Alabama - I was looking to fade Alabama against Ole Miss and LSU. Had it not been for bad non-touchback call on a punt late in the 4th quarter (I was sitting right at the goal line), I would have hit my Ole Miss bet.
While I believe that Alabama is good enough offensively in both phases that they can score virtually every time they have the ball on almost everyone in college football, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here. The last 4 offensive Picasso's were turned in against the likes of Georgia State, Kentucky, Arkansas & Tennessee. Clearly LSU cannot be lumped in with those college football bottom feeders.
Over the years I have probably been one of the most critical Alabama fans of Alabama's quarterbacks. John Parker Wilson was clearly all Saban had to work with he arrived, and the same can be said of Greg McElroy. And while I think McElroy was a slight improvement over Wilson, I never thought he was a good QB. AJ McCarron was the first QB to start under Saban that was recruited by Saban, and clearly he is a huge improvement over his predecessors. It was obvious McCarron's redshirt year (2009) that he was the best QB on the roster. Alabama won the national championship that year despite McElroy's mostly inept play. In 2010 Alabama's season was effectively over after they lost to LSU. At that point there was no longer any reason to continue to play McElroy IMO (because everyone knew McCarron was the much better QB), yet Saban remained loyal to him the rest of the season.
I regurgitate all of this for a couple of reasons. First of all we all know how important QB play is in today's game, and McCarron is the biggest reason that Alabama has been able to take their offense to the next level. I would argue getting rid of Jim McElwain as the offensive coordinator was the second. The second reason I bring this up is because when I proceed to point out McCarron's weaknesses and how poorly he's played in big games (save for the two national championships games in which he performed brilliantly), people won't think I'm a McCarron hater, because I certainly am not. But prior to this season, the four games in which Alabama had struggled, the common denominator has been poor QB play - the 2011 9-6 loss to LSU, the 2012 21-17 win over LSU, the 29-24 loss to Texas A&M, and the 2012 32-28 win over Georgia. In all four of those games, McCarron has largely buckled under the pressure of the moment. The release of that pressure was evident when the tears started flowing after last season's dramatic win over LSU. Seriously, how many times have you seen a QB cry after a big win? The answer for me is never. Now I'm not making light of his expression of emotion after the game, but I think it is indicative of how much pressure he was under.
After McCarron lead Alabama on the last minute game-winning drive against LSU last season, the media was fawning all over him and declared him a Heisman Candidate. I had to shake my head at the spectacle of it all and wondered how McCarron's worst game of the season would make him a Heisman candidate? If anything I thought that game should have eliminated him from contention. The bottom line is had he not played so poorly the entire game (mainly the 2nd half), a dramatic last second drive would not have been necessary.
Conversely, most of the times McCarron has had extra time to prepare for big games, he has played exceedingly well such as the national championship games and the Texas A&M game this season. With that in mind, it is worth noting that McCarron has had an extra week to heal and prepare for this game.
So the big question for me in this game is which AJ McCarron will we see in this game? Will we see the QB that has been overwhelmed by the moment, or will we see the calm, cool and collected AJ McCarron we saw against Notre Dame? Aside from the extra preparation time I mentioned, I tend to lean toward latter for three reasons. The first is the game will be in Tuscaloosa so that will definitely help alleviate some of the pressure. The second reason I lean toward McCarron having a good game is his big-game experience. Obviously the more big games you play in, the more acclimated you become to the pressure of playing in them. And lastly, I lean toward McCarron having a good game because I think it's clear that LSU's defense is just not as formidable as it has been in year's past. For these reasons, I think the odds favor McCarron playing very well in this game.
I'll add to this write up as time allows.
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depositexpert
Member
Its a joy to read your insight for these Alabama games. I look forward to reading the rest of what you have to say, and I appreciate the time and effort you put into writing this for all of us to read. Thanks again!
depositexpert
Member
Jimmy, looking forward to the rest of your analysis. Is it coming?
Tide High
p90sex
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I apologize for not having time this week to post all of my thoughts on this game. The bottom line is, first and foremost, I like OVER 55. I will also make a small play on LSU +11.5.
Other plays:
Vandy +10
Minnesota -2
UAB/Marshall OVER 67
Navy -15.5
ECU -16.5
Maryland -5
USM/LT UNDER 26 (1st Half)
UCLA +1.5
Wyoming +9
Wyoming ML +265
Other plays:
Vandy +10
Minnesota -2
UAB/Marshall OVER 67
Navy -15.5
ECU -16.5
Maryland -5
USM/LT UNDER 26 (1st Half)
UCLA +1.5
Wyoming +9
Wyoming ML +265
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
like your minny and over bama pix jimmay
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Best GameDay sign.
Monica Lewinsky Loves Clinton-Dix
Honorable Mention:
Lou Holtz 4 Prethident
View attachment 33400
Monica Lewinsky Loves Clinton-Dix
Honorable Mention:
Lou Holtz 4 Prethident
View attachment 33400
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Good start so far. I'm sure I'll manage to screw it up with the rest of my plays.
depositexpert
Member
Jimmy,
Thanks for the picks last week. You helped me go 5-0 on the early games, then I banged the over on Bama (and fortunately got it at 54.5) and was drunk and had to bet on your boys since I was with another Bama fan down in Huntsville AL. Do you have any leans this week? Thanks and have a great weekend!
Thanks for the picks last week. You helped me go 5-0 on the early games, then I banged the over on Bama (and fortunately got it at 54.5) and was drunk and had to bet on your boys since I was with another Bama fan down in Huntsville AL. Do you have any leans this week? Thanks and have a great weekend!
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Early Games:
UCF -16.5 (Best Bet)
Rutgers -1.5
Indiana +27
West Virginia -6.5
Afternoon:
Georgia/Auburn OVER 64.5 (Best Bet)
Georgia +4
Utah/Oregon OVER 64.5
SMU -14.5
ULL/GSU OVER 59.5
Evening:
Alabama -22.5 (Best Bet)
Alabama -13.5 (1st Half)
Colorado -2.5
USC +3.5
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HammersSpreads
Pretty much a regular
BOL jimmy. Go get ya some. Glad to see we are on the same side of some of those
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Glad to hear it. I stayed away from the side and pushed on the total. I had thought about buying a hook, but ended up taking the 55. A low-scoring 1st quarter - particularly the fumble at the goal line - prevented me from cashing my ticket. OVER was clearly the right side though.
I hit all of my early games, and all of my early game leans. I think I would have been about 7 & 0 had I played them all. Playing a few more leans this week, hence the large card.
BOL this week DE!!!
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Some brief thoughts on the Alabama game, and why I'll be "Max Betting" it.
Alabama always plays Mississippi State the week after playing LSU (last season was an exception). It is for that reason I usually avoid betting Alabama when the two meet. I even faded Alabama in 2011 and came away with a very luck half-point cover. Despite my reluctance to bet on Alabama following the LSU game, Alabama has actually covered in 4 out of the last 5 meetings, with the 2011 half-point loss being the only set-back.
The reason Alabama has covered 4 of the last 5 is defense. In the Saban era, Mississippi State's offense has averaged only 5.7 points per game, and only hit DD twice (10 points both times). I think it'll be pretty much the same story again this year. Alabama won't have to score many points to cover the spread because of Mississippi State's offense can't score enough to keep them in the game. Even if you give Mississippi State the benefit of scoring 10 points (and that won't happen), Alabama would only need to score 33 to cover. Alabama's offense is now fulfilling my preseason prophecy that they will be the most prolific offense in Alabama history, and it's doubtful that anyone will hold them under 40 points from this point forward.
I expect Alabama to get their 5th cover in the last 6 years against the Bulldogs. I really don't think Mississippi State will find the end zone in this game, and Alabama's offense should pretty much be able to score at will as they have been doing against everyone lately. This should be a business as usual 45-3 type win, and a very comfortable Alabama cover.
Alabama always plays Mississippi State the week after playing LSU (last season was an exception). It is for that reason I usually avoid betting Alabama when the two meet. I even faded Alabama in 2011 and came away with a very luck half-point cover. Despite my reluctance to bet on Alabama following the LSU game, Alabama has actually covered in 4 out of the last 5 meetings, with the 2011 half-point loss being the only set-back.
The reason Alabama has covered 4 of the last 5 is defense. In the Saban era, Mississippi State's offense has averaged only 5.7 points per game, and only hit DD twice (10 points both times). I think it'll be pretty much the same story again this year. Alabama won't have to score many points to cover the spread because of Mississippi State's offense can't score enough to keep them in the game. Even if you give Mississippi State the benefit of scoring 10 points (and that won't happen), Alabama would only need to score 33 to cover. Alabama's offense is now fulfilling my preseason prophecy that they will be the most prolific offense in Alabama history, and it's doubtful that anyone will hold them under 40 points from this point forward.
I expect Alabama to get their 5th cover in the last 6 years against the Bulldogs. I really don't think Mississippi State will find the end zone in this game, and Alabama's offense should pretty much be able to score at will as they have been doing against everyone lately. This should be a business as usual 45-3 type win, and a very comfortable Alabama cover.
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