caboto NFL 2019

C

caboto13

Pretty much a regular
Hi guys,

start with
Packers +3,5 @-117 to win 2u

I'll take Rodgers plus more than a field goal against almost any team. Think he wants prove that he is healthy and after this strange game last week1 when he led the Packers to the comeback win with literally one leg, I hope he will do it again. May add one unit to the ML, if I can get +150 or better. Missed the -110 for the +3,5 on Sunday but saw some +2,5 lines tuesday, so satisfied with the juice for the hook.

Good luck all.
 
Thx bones, to you.

Good start with 2-0 +3,5.
Titans +5,5 @-108 to win 1u
ML parlay Eagles / Seahawks / Cowboys / Pats / Saints @240 to win 1,2u

Titans have a solid running game and I doubt the Browns are able to cope with the pressure and high expectations in their season home opener. They are better than last year of course but for me they still have to proove that they are able to handle a situation, which is "some people expect the Browns to reach the playoffs".
Maybe they win, but +5,5 too much for me.

Parlay for fun with better home teams. Don't see any of them lose. Due to week 1 only half a unit.
 
Packers +3,5 @-117 to win 2u
Packers ML @+150 to win 1,5u
Titans +5,5 @-108 to win 1u
ML parlay Eagles / Seahawks / Cowboys / Pats / Saints @240 to win 1,2u
Bills +2,5 @100 to win 1u
Seahawks -8.5 @-115 to win 1u
Bucs ML @-120 to win 1u

Week 1: 5-2 (including 1-0 parlays) +4,35u ROI: 12,12/8,77 -> 38,2%

Week 2: Lean Ravens, Packers





 
Ravens -12,5 @-111 to win 2u

Saw the number and had to play it. Maybe it's an overreaction to the Dolphins game, but I'd say something like 27-14 seems absolutely possible. Think the line goes to 14. Murrays first game on the road at the East coast in an early game while the Ravens have their home opener after putting up 59 points on the road. I expect the Ravens to roll and win in a blowout like 38-10 or something.

Maybe it could help that the Cardinals were not really good against the rushing game last year giving up 154,9 yards per game (No. 32).

Ravens had 152,6 rushing yards per game (No. 2) last year and now Lamar throws pretty accurate ( at least in the first game).
 
Line went in my direction, not sure what to think of it, but I'm pretty sure, the Ravens will roll so add
Ravens -11,5 @-105 to win 1u
Colts +3,5 @-105 to win 1u
Steelers -3,5@-108 to win 1u
Broncos +2,5@-105 to win 1u
ML parlay Bengals / Packers / Chargers / Chiefs @612 to 6,12u
 
Ravens -12,5 @-111 to win 2u
Ravens -11,5 @-105 to win 1u
Colts +3,5 @-105 to win 1u
Steelers -3,5@-108 to win 1u
Broncos +2,5@-105 to win 1u
ML parlay Bengals / Packers / Chargers / Chiefs @612 to 6,12u
Bills -2 @-109 to win 1u
Chiefs -7 @-105 to win 1u
Chiefs TT over 30.5 @-108 to win 1u

Week 2: 4-5 (including 0-1 parlays) -2,43u ROI: 8,24/10,67 -> -22,8
Overall: 9-7 (including 1-1 parlays) +1,92u ROI: 20,36/19,44 -> 4,73%

Chiefs didn't score in 2nd half, so lose my TT bet and imo the flag (delay of game) at the Ravens game on 4 & 1 at the end of the 3rd quarter cost me the Ravens bet. Scoring a TD to go up 24-9 instead of 20-9 I think the Ravens cover.

Winning wk1, losing wk2 on to the next.

Got a freebet worth 1,5u and have a
ML parlay: Titans / Bills / Packers / Colts / Bucs / 49ers and Schalke 04 (German Bundesliga soccer) @+1525 to win 22,8u

Tend to take the Cowboys ATS, though no one should touch those spreads to cover, but I really think, the Dolphins are that bad. Still time to think.
 
Titans -1,5 @-108 to win 1u

Better team, especially the rushing game. Credits to the Jags to hang on with the Texans on the road, but I think, the Titans are way better than the Texans. Probably a low scoring game like 17-13.

Good luck all!
 
0-1 - Should have bet the under.....

Steelers +7 @-108 to win 1u
Lions +4,5 @-105 to win 1u
Packers -7 @-111 to win 1u
ML parlay Packers / Rams / Chiefs @166 to win 1,66u
 
Titans -1,5 @-108 to win 1u
Steelers +7 @-108 to win 1u
Lions +4,5 @-105 to win 1u
Packers -7 @-111 to win 1u
ML parlay Packers / Rams / Chiefs @166 to win 1,66u
Bills - Bengals over 43,5 @-105 to win 1u
Broncos TT under 16,5 @105 to win 1.05u
ML parlay Seahawks / Vikings / Bucs @146 to win 1,46u

Week 3: 5-3 (including 1-1 parlays) +2,53u ROI: 10,95/8,42 -> +30,04%
Overall: 14-10 (including 2-2 parlays) +4,45u ROI: 31,31/27,86 -> +12,38%

Broncos missed PAT made it a good week. Nothing for the MNF. Probably on the Packers TNF.
 
Packers -4.5 @-115 to win 1u
ML parlay Packers / Chiefs / Pats @147 to win 2,94u

I think the Packers are the better team and still haven't had a really good game on offense. Defense is good and the Eagles have to cope with lots of injuries plus they are on short rest in a stadium where the home team is 14-0-1 in last 15 September games (don't know ATS). I trust the Packers to win ATS and the parlay involves superior teams (obviously) that i can't see losing.
 
Titans +4,5 @-125 to win 1u
Colts -7 @103 to win 2,06u


Thinking about some teasers @100
Bills +15,5 & under 48,5
Chiefs -0,5 & over 48,5 won't play it, if Stafford sits
Browns +12,5 & over 39
Redskins +9 & over 43

Thoughts?
 
Panthers +5,5 @-115 to win 1u
Redskins +3,5 @-111 to win 1u
Chiefs -0,5 & over 48,5 @100 to win 1u
Chiefs -6,5 & over 55,5 @240 to win 1,2u
Browns +7 @-108 to win 0,5u
Colts -6,5 @-105 to win 1u
ML parlay Redskins / Titans / Colts / Chiefs / Vikings @1979 to win 9,9u
 
Talked myself into
Pats - Bills over 41,5 @100 to win 1u
Dolphins - Chargers over 43,5 @-111 to win 1u

Good luck!
 
Vikings +7 & over 32 @100 to win 3u
Rams - Bucs over 24.5 1H @100 to win 1u
Cardinals - Seahawks over 24.5 @100 to win 1u
Pats - Bills over 41,5 @100 to win 1u
Dolphins - Chargers over 43,5 @-111 to win 1u
Panthers +5,5 @-115 to win 1u
Redskins +3,5 @-111 to win 1u
Chiefs -0,5 & over 48,5 @100 to win 1u
Chiefs -6,5 & over 55,5 @240 to win 1,2u
Browns +7 @-108 to win 0,5u
Colts -6,5 @-105 to win 1u
ML parlay Redskins / Titans / Colts / Chiefs / Vikings @1979 to win 9,9u
Titans +4,5 @-125 to win 1u
Colts -7 @103 to win 2,06u
Packers -4.5 @-115 to win 1u
ML parlay Packers / Chiefs / Pats @147 to win 2,94u

Week 4: 5-11 (including 0-2 parlays) -8,73u ROI: 9,48/18,21 -> -47,94%
Overall: 19-21 (including 2-4 parlays) -4,28u ROI: 41,29/45,57 -> -9,39&

Found an error in week1, corrected it in the overall figures.

Should have stuck with my guts and found another distribution of the stakes. Liked the Titans a lot, more than the Colts, but ended up betting more than 3u on the Colts and only 1u on the Titans.

Had 4 teasers in mind, that would have gone 3-1 für +2u and ended up playing only one of those (that won).

You won't see me betting on the Redskins and the Dolphins covering the spread or being involved in an over the rest of the season. They are awful.

I liked the Pats under and ended up playing over. Sometimes you are overanalyzing a game.
The Vikings have no quarterback. The Bears defense is good, ok, but 6 points??? Come on.

I loves the Steelers because of Daltons prime time games and ended up playing nothing.
Have to learn and get it back.
 
Week 5
Texans -4 @-108 to win 1u
Pats -15 @-105 to win 1u
Bears -4,5 @-111 to win 1u

I like the Texans defense against the Falcons OL, plus the Falcons are 0-12 or 0-13 SU against AFC last games. Don't cars about the spread. Think it is 27-13 or similar.

I play the Pats against a Redskins team with whoever as qb. They'll have trouble to score and doubt they will get more than 12. Pats defense with at least two TO, so should be 28-10 or 31-12. Brady with bad numbers last week, expect 300+ yards today.

Bears gut feeling...

May add the Eagles and the Steelers (only dog i like), perhaps Vikings in a ML parlay.
 
Last edited:
Try a ML parlay for fun:
Bengals / Panthers / Vikings / Eagles / Bears / Texans / Pats / Chiefs +964 0,25u to win 2,44u
Steelers +9,5 & over 38 @100 to win 1u
 
Texans -4 @-108 to win 1u
Pats -15 @-105 to win 1u
Bears -4,5 @-111 to win 1u
Bengals / Panthers / Vikings / Eagles / Bears / Texans / Pats / Chiefs +964 0,25u to win 2,44u
Steelers +9,5 & over 38 @100 to win 1u
Eagles -14 @-105 to win 1u
ML parlay Vikings / Bears / Pats @110 to win 1,1u
Chiefs -5 & over 50 @100 to win 0.5u

Week 5: 4-4 (including 0-2 parlays) +1,14u ROI: 8,18/7,04 -> +16,2%
Overall: 23-25 (including 2-6 parlays) -3,14u ROI: 49,47/52,61-> -5,97%

So I have alternating weeks WLWLW. Hope to break the trend. Lost 5u last two weeks by going against the Raiders that went on the road and won two straight as dogs. Will bet the Packers for sure in their next game.
 
Pats -16,5 @-108 to win 1u
Pats -10,5 & under 49 @100 to win 1u

Rookies on the road at the Pats against the best defense. Vikings hold Giants at 10, don't see them score more in Boston. 30-10, 27-7, even 34-13 wins....

Good luck!
 
Have the Panthers ML to win 1u

Saints +7 & under 50 @100 to win 1u
Bengals +18 & over 41.5 @100 to win 1u
Rams -3 @-111 to win 2u
ML parlay Chiefs / Broncos / Cowboys @240 to win 2.4u
ML parlay Saints/Seahawks Cardinals Dolphins @+2547 to win 12.74u
 
Last edited:
Chiefs -3 @-103 to win 0.5u
Chiefs under 50 @-108 to win 0.5u
ML parlay Chiefs Packers 49ers Rams Seahawks @632 to win 6.32u
 
Falcons-Rams over 54.5 @-108 to win 1u
Giants-Cardinals over 51 @-108 to win 1u
Saints ML @145 to win 2.9u
Saints +3.5 @-111 to win 2u
Played Saints on Monday. With Kamara out dont't like it so much but let it ride. Coaching and qb advantage Saints, even defenses, take the points in a low scoring game. 16-13 Saints.
 
Add: Dolphins +23 & under 47,5 @100 to win 1u.

Hope Dolphins get 13 and do not see the Bills score over 30.
 
Week 6
Pats -16,5 @-108 to win 1u
Pats -10,5 & under 49 @100 to win 1u
Panthers ML @-125 to win 1u
Saints +7 & under 50 @100 to win 1u
Bengals +18 & over 41.5 @100 to win 1u
Rams -3 @-111 to win 2u
ML parlay Chiefs / Broncos / Cowboys @240 to win 2.4u
ML parlay Saints/Seahawks Cardinals Dolphins @+2547 to win 12.74u
Packers -3.5 @-108 u to win 1u

Week 6: 4-5 (including 0-2 parlays) -1,80u ROI: 8,33/10,13 -> -17,8%
Overall: 27-30 (including 2-8 parlays) -4,94u ROI: 57,80/62,74-> -7,88%


Week 7
Chiefs -3 @-103 to win 0.5u
Chiefs under 50 @-108 to win 0.5u
ML parlay Chiefs Packers 49ers Rams Seahawks @632 to win 6.32u
Falcons-Rams over 54.5 @-108 to win 1u
Giants-Cardinals over 51 @-108 to win 1u
Saints ML @145 to win 2.9u
Saints +3.5 @-111 to win 2u
Dolphins +23 & under 47,5 @100 to win 1u
Giants - Cardinals over 49.5 @-105 to win 1u
Week 7: 4-5 (including 0-1 parlays) +0,69u ROI: 11,18/10,49 -> +6,57%
Overall: 31-35 (including 2-9 parlays) -4,25u ROI: 68,98/73,23-> -5,8%

Parlays excluded: 29-26 +1,14u ROI: 64,62/63,48 -> +1,8%

The Dolphins missed two-point-conversion against the Redskins cost me the parlay in week 6 and a win of +12u and the td return of the onside kick another one yesterday. Anyway analyzing my bets is easy. Don't bet parlays and you will win at least until week 7. Maybe I will learn, but to have action on lots of games for small money is part of the fun I have watching NFL on Sundays.

Tend to take the points tonight, so far WLWLWLW alternating WL-weeks so fade me in week 8 :(
 
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