BYU Boise

spottie2935

spottie2935

Read Lines, Not Books
I posted this on "Blankets" so I thought I would share here.

BYU @ Houston line was -3

BYU @ Boise line is -3



I will reference Sagarin's ratings:

Houston's rating is 56th @73.41

Boise is ranked 9th @87.09

BYU is ranked 6th @90.46



The way I evaluate this line is Boise at 9th is getting the same amount of points as 56th ranked Houston. This doesn't guarantee anything but the valuation Boise has much tighter chance to close the deal here.



The valuation also has a calculated line of pick em if one assumes 3 points for home field.



Your take it means more to you that BYU has played many games more then Boise.



My take is there is lot of game film for a good team like Boise to adjust to. BYU also has had an easy schedule. The question to me is BYU is facing a huge game on the road with at least a fair or bad line according to Sagarin. Its played on the field but I like a strong Home team with a valued line.



I also have BYU rated less because of their soft schedule and will adjust accordingly after this real tough game. So my rating its even a better bet on Boise.

Oh by the way I throw out all the previous stats out the window in my opinion BYU competition stinks so far. I dont give those stats any value in this game. All those stats support is a high rating for BYU.



BYU is 3-7 straight up in this series and 0-5 @Boise
 
I think the Sagarin rating has an extremely inflated view of Boise State compared to other power rankings. In my opinion Houston and Boise State are very similar.
Additionally, has the schedule for Boise better any more difficult than BYU. Utah State is horrible at this point and Air Force struggled mightily against San Jose State (although the Flyboys were missing some personnel in that game)
 
rochclone said:
I think the Sagarin rating has an extremely inflated view of Boise State compared to other power rankings. In my opinion Houston and Boise State are very similar.
Additionally, has the schedule for Boise better any more difficult than BYU. Utah State is horrible at this point and Air Force struggled mightily against San Jose State (although the Flyboys were missing some personnel in that game)
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It very well could be and I dont always trust what Sagarin puts out. BYU is good but this will measure how good, for both teams. I also think BYU rating is too elevated so it boils down to bounces on the field and or who plays better. To me I still have a high hopes for an upset. Adjust rating accordingly after the game.
 
spottie2935 said:
It very well could be and I dont always trust what Sagarin puts out. BYU is good but this will measure how good, for both teams. I also think BYU rating is too elevated so it boils down to bounces on the field and or who plays better. To me I still have a high hopes for an upset. Adjust rating accordingly after the game.
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Fair enough. Should be a really interesting game. Thank you for the write up.
 
I think I’m in the camp of thinking Boise rating is too high. I do agree byu schedule has been sharmin soft so it really tough to say on them but so have Boise 2 games. Is their home field as great this year? They allowing fans? Either way I kinda like byu but I know it square as fuxk which ain’t my cup of tea so if I do play them when I go to put mr bets in a little bit it would be small.
 
Reason I lean byu isnt stats either (although those is usually a big deal to me), I agree neither teams have much meaning here. Just watching both I think byu the more physical group. Boise corners could slow down the passing game some but up front I think byu wins in trenches.
 
There is no question BYU is good. I just question how good and how good is Boise is at home this season. BYU no history of winning one game in Boise. Sure this has about a 2 to 1 chance according to the line but the line isnt always correct either.
 
spottie2935 said:
There is no question BYU is good. I just question how good and how good is Boise is at home this season. BYU no history of winning one game in Boise. Sure this has about a 2 to 1 chance according to the line but the line isnt always correct either.
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I can’t make a great case against what you saying, that why I don’t love it, lol. My favorite plays tend to be ones where I think I can find a edge in the numbers on teams that being overlooked/underrated/undervalued, pick your word of choice, this certainly ain’t that! There no doubt to me you paying a premium on byu, their perception super high and not like their anything in the numbers that I can point to and say it’s actually cheap, I honestly don’t even bother capping games like this the same way, where I don’t think either teams stats have been compiled vs nearly the competition they up against in this one none those stats mean much of anything to me. It way more a degen eye test where admittedly I don’t feel nearly as confident.

do you know if Boise has any fans in stands or not? I can’t keep track of who does or doesn’t these days!
 
You really the only person opinion I’ve come to respect I talk with who on Boise, that should make you feel great cause I’d say the history of games where it even mostly ppl I respect on same side they usually don’t end well. Ive got at least 7-8 plays I like better than this, even tonight I’m way more bullish on San Jose st. What I’ll prob end up doing is playing San Jose st straight and leaving 20 off my normal bet and making a 2teamer with them and byu just for little action. I’ve really worked on killing my degen side but I’ll allow myself that as like a reward for passing on all the Maction wed night!! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I can’t make a great case against what you saying, that why I don’t love it, lol. My favorite plays tend to be ones where I think I can find a edge in the numbers on teams that being overlooked/underrated/undervalued, pick your word of choice, this certainly ain’t that! There no doubt to me you paying a premium on byu, their perception super high and not like their anything in the numbers that I can point to and say it’s actually cheap, I honestly don’t even bother capping games like this the same way, where I don’t think either teams stats have been compiled vs nearly the competition they up against in this one none those stats mean much of anything to me. It way more a degen eye test where admittedly I don’t feel nearly as confident.

do you know if Boise has any fans in stands or not? I can’t keep track of who does or doesn’t these days!
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No clue
 
2daBank said:
Just watching both I think byu the more physical group.
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First two things I look at are toughness and defense and the thing that interests me about these two is they are both physical and tough and take a lot of pride in being the toughest team on the field and beating the other team down.

I don't have a strong opinion on this one because they look about the same to me, but I'm going to wait until kickoff to see if the Boise QB plays. If not, I may go BYU.

It interests me though that the MW is becoming a physical conference. Boise and Wyoming have been that way and after watching CSU last night they look as tough as anyone. Typical Addazio team
 
ProV1Colt said:
Zach Wilson
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I am not 100% on the field type of guy. There is a lot of BS that happens and many ex athletes would be killing the books if they knew how to break down film and win bets. there is too much randomness and craziness that happens in each game that cashes or burns ticket. No question as it appears that BYU is the better team this week, and added to that they have played more games. Does that or will that help them ? Who knows. The better QB has been Zach but going into Boise for most teams is a death trap.

None of what I type guarantees anything or the performance of any player on the field. I am sure many of were athletes at one point and we all share good days and bad days.

My lines my ratings win or lose is what I have trust in. If wrong or right i adjust.

When all is said and done to this point my record posted on "Blankets" so far is 34-23ATS which puts me at 59% so if this record is sustained all year i will be wrong in this game 40% of the time. I am counting on this record in all the games I play, and I have trust in what I do.

Good luck everyone As you can tell I love the conversation .:cheers3:
 
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TahoeLegend said:
First two things I look at are toughness and defense and the thing that interests me about these two is they are both physical and tough and take a lot of pride in being the toughest team on the field and beating the other team down.

I don't have a strong opinion on this one because they look about the same to me, but I'm going to wait until kickoff to see if the Boise QB plays. If not, I may go BYU.

It interests me though that the MW is becoming a physical conference. Boise and Wyoming have been that way and after watching CSU last night they look as tough as anyone. Typical Addazio team
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CSU did look pretty tough nosed, I didn’t really know that bout them but they prob one the MW teams i been least familiar with last few years. That why I didn’t get involved last night. I agree there def a lot more physicality in that conf. Sdst used to have a strangle hold on that calling card. I think San Jose st who started this rebuild with offense has even gotten tougher, we will see tonight how much so.
 
Don't know if I'll bet on it or not, but, REALLY been looking forward to this game tonight. Probably my #1 game of the week I'm looking forward to, but, Clem/ND is probably just a slight notch ahead of this one for me. Can't wait!

BYU one of my favorite teams to watch. So fundamental all around. And Zach Wilson, kid has been great. And the offense can beat you in many ways, very effective through both the air and on the ground.

I think experience this year, games already played, is a big factor...... BYU 7-0, Boise 2-0.

Gun to my head....... BYU -3
 
L8kersFan74 said:
Don't know if I'll bet on it or not, but, REALLY been looking forward to this game tonight. Probably my #1 game of the week I'm looking forward to, but, Clem/ND is probably just a slight notch ahead of this one for me. Can't wait!

BYU one of my favorite teams to watch. So fundamental all around. And Zach Wilson, kid has been great. And the offense can beat you in many ways, very effective through both the air and on the ground.

I think experience this year, games already played, is a big factor...... BYU 7-0, Boise 2-0.

Gun to my head....... BYU -3
Click to expand...
Guess its me and the bookies tonight. I like to win but I dont like to be against everyone either. Like being on a private island with no naked chicks. Either way I guess I will be watching Porn
 
L8kersFan74 said:
Don't know if I'll bet on it or not, but, REALLY been looking forward to this game tonight. Probably my #1 game of the week I'm looking forward to, but, Clem/ND is probably just a slight notch ahead of this one for me. Can't wait!

BYU one of my favorite teams to watch. So fundamental all around. And Zach Wilson, kid has been great. And the offense can beat you in many ways, very effective through both the air and on the ground.

I think experience this year, games already played, is a big factor...... BYU 7-0, Boise 2-0.

Gun to my head....... BYU -3
Click to expand...

you would laugh if I ever said out loud the games I most look forward to many weeks, they are never the games everyone wants to see, lol. This week tho might be little traction for at least one the ones I can’t wait for, liberty/vatech. I was really looking forward to Air Force till the Rona got them.
 
spottie2935 said:
Guess its me and the bookies tonight. I like to win but I dont like to be against everyone either. Like being on a private island with no naked chicks. Either way I guess I will be watching Porn
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I rather stand alone than with everyone, lol. Although since I’ve said you were only person I know on Boise a few more have text me and another posted them here. In a weird way even tho they opinions of guys I respect it still makes me feel little better bout leaning byu. I just hate when it one sided and I’m with the group, lol.
 
spottie2935 said:
I am not 100% on the field type of guy. There is a lot of BS that happens and many ex athletes would be killing the books if they knew how to break down film and win bets. there is too much randomness and craziness that happens in each game that cashes or burns ticket. No question as it appears that BYU is the better team this week, and added to that they have played more games. Does that or will that help them ? Who knows. The better QB has been Zach but going into Boise for most teams is a death trap.

None of what I type guarantees anything or the performance of any player on the field. I am sure many of were athletes at one point and we all share good days and bad days.

My lines my ratings win or lose is what I have trust in. If wrong or right i adjust.

When all is said and done to this point my record posted on "Blankets" so far is 34-23ATS which puts me at 59% so if this record is sustained all year i will be wrong in this game 40% of the time. I am counting on this record in all the games I play, and I have trust in what I do.

Good luck everyone As you can tall I love the conversation .:cheers3:
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At the end of the day, it’s just another wager we make during the season or year.......I like your sell high and buy low philosophy......( should we buy Clemson now, close game last week and people hyping ND ).....I like going with my instincts on certain games win or lose.....will have to say the cheesy word here.....health on the BYU game and GL.....
 
number2 said:
At the end of the day, it’s just another wager we make during the season or year.......I like your sell high and buy low philosophy......( should we buy Clemson now, close game last week and people hyping ND ).....I like going with my instincts on certain games win or lose.....will have to say the cheesy word here.....health on the BYU game and GL.....
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Off topic here I think Clemson is a buy but I have too many already and try to avoid the better top 10 ranked teams.
 
number2 said:
At the end of the day, it’s just another wager we make during the season or year.......I like your sell high and buy low philosophy......( should we buy Clemson now, close game last week and people hyping ND ).....I like going with my instincts on certain games win or lose.....will have to say the cheesy word here.....health on the BYU game and GL.....
Click to expand...

I kinda think clemson the way to go, it almost like ND has to show me when they up against one these athletic powerhouses cause they really havnt been able to break thru for obvious reasons. I heard former Golden doomer Brady Quinn trying to sell that last time they played in semi final it was actually closer than the score, me and him were watching different freaking game that night! No Lawrence means a big experience drop off but after seeing that freshman play not sure it a huge talent drop? That said big games ain’t exactly my strong suite.
 
L8kersFan74 said:
Don't know if I'll bet on it or not, but, REALLY been looking forward to this game tonight. Probably my #1 game of the week I'm looking forward to, but, Clem/ND is probably just a slight notch ahead of this one for me. Can't wait!

BYU one of my favorite teams to watch. So fundamental all around. And Zach Wilson, kid has been great. And the offense can beat you in many ways, very effective through both the air and on the ground.

I think experience this year, games already played, is a big factor...... BYU 7-0, Boise 2-0.

Gun to my head....... BYU -3
Click to expand...

Yep....without Alabama 1q and 1h plays this week.....BYU is only game I like....lol.....

I’m liking Clemson and the over.....feeling if ND covers, gonna go over....

Fau total at 39.5? Is this the lowest total we’ve seen in past few years? Lower than the Military Academies? I was like under before line came out, now I’m liking the over on this......Fau is not offensive jauggernaut, so WKU shouldn’t play keep away like against BYU?
 
number2 said:
Yep....without Alabama 1q and 1h plays this week.....BYU is only game I like....lol.....

I’m liking Clemson and the over.....feeling if ND covers, gonna go over....

Fau total at 39.5? Is this the lowest total we’ve seen in past few years? Lower than the Military Academies? I was like under before line came out, now I’m liking the over on this......Fau is not offensive jauggernaut, so WKU shouldn’t play keep away like against BYU?
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Wku offense is not good either tho. If this was last year wku I could still see myself playing under but I don’t feel like their defense has been nearly as good so I’m not as sure on a total so low. I could def see 20 points winning that game tho.
 
Holy crap this line starting to steam. You can pretty much count me as passing cause I’m bout to head up to book and I don’t see myself laying -4 or 4.5! Hope the Boise guys waited!
 
L8kersFan74 said:
BYU one of my favorite teams to watch. So fundamental all around. And Zach Wilson, kid has been great. And the offense can beat you in many ways, very effective through both the air and on the ground.
Click to expand...
Yah, I love watching BYU because they play buttoned up, disciplined football without any bullshit. I watched the Western Kentucky game whistle to whistle last Saturday and 1/2 of WKU's penalties must have been personal fouls. There was some dirt going on. But all BYU did was absorb the penalty, no retaliation, go back to the huddle and then on the next play help the WKU player up. They're just all business.
 
2daBank said:
Holy crap this line starting to steam. You can pretty much count me as passing cause I’m bout to head up to book and I don’t see myself laying -4 or 4.5! Hope the Boise guys waited!
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I bought BYU -1 -122 juiced on Sunday night.....
Might go for middle with Boise if it goes to 4.5...BM have -4 BYU now....
 
number2 said:
I bought BYU -1 -122 juiced on Sunday night.....
Might go for middle with Boise if it goes to 4.5...BM have -4 BYU now....
Click to expand...

good get, I should have known when I was up there yesterday but in all honestly I already had doubts so now my mind made up for me, lol. Maybe I’ll regret it, maybe it saved me a loss, who knows. I damn sure ain’t gonna play a jacked up line money driving up tho.
 
One given tonight is that we'll see gadget plays. Thinking the over is 3.5, maybe 4. They're a specialty of Harsin's and BYU has gone to the bag several times this season.
 
Boise going all black for its work clothes tonight. Extra momentum or dressing for a funeral? TBD.

No word on whether the field will be all black.

EmEeD3nXIAYv4pu
 
I went to college with Kellen Moore’s cousin. She’s extremely hot. Way better than those cheerleaders. Oh, and Boise is the play for me.
 
Boise the push me over with a feather, I can't believe it's not butter angle of the week...

Play any non-conference college football home dog,

That scored 40 or more points in each of it's last two games,

If both teams are undefeated and the foe is off a SU and ATS win and allows 13-plus PPG.

12-1 ATS since ET was #1 at the box office.
 
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