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Coattailing Cheerleader
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w
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5-3-1 on CTGproboards in Week 12 ; season to date 48-27-4
Semi Final picks are in Post # 52 & #56
We are now in the playoff arena in FCS, Division II and Division III. It’s an exciting time of season, fun to try and pick winners, and difficult to do so. Last week I went 0-4 in the FCS first round, but this was more than offset by 9-2 in the other divisions. I remind all that I recognize this is a much tougher selection process and I reduce my bet size accordingly.
I do not like 12+ teams in a conference with a (money money) playoff game but I know I’m in the minority and out of step with the times. 3 of this week’s 5 playoff games involve teams that have already played this season. The PAC 10 opponents faced one another just a week ago. So which theory do we subscribe to: - Team A has beaten team B already and have the confidence they can do it again OR it is difficult for a team to win two games in the same season against a strong opponent? Before we get to the undercard games for this week, I’m contradicting myself in two of the FBS playoff games.
Central Florida +2 1/2 @ Tulsa – These teams played at Tulsa 2 weeks back and the home team won by two. I don’t like the way Tulsa lost at home to SMU in their last so my play is on CFU to turn the tables in the rematch.
Loss - Tough beat
Nebraska – 3 -120 v Wisconsin – These same two teams played earlier in the season, a game played in Lincoln and won by Nebraska by 3 points. This looks like a repeat win on a neutral field based on better QB play for the Huskers against an opponent that lost 3 of its last 4 and really doesn’t belong here.
Loss - One of biggest coaching mismatches ever, which I failed to take into consideration
No Dakota St -8 v So Dakota St – NDS at home here, a repeat of a game won by NDS just two weeks ago by 3 points. Pick your poison. I have no investment in this game. My gut tells me the home team covers and it also is telling me that NDS will not repeat as FCS champion. This IS a game they could lose, so I pass.
New Hampshire +9 @ Wofford – Tough for visitors to win in this playoff arrangement, but I like the 9 points and don’t dislike UNH’s chances for a SU win. Wofford is a pure running team using whatever you call that offense run by all the service academies. I don’t think UNH holds them down but I do like their chances to match them on the scoreboard. UNH has been here before on enemy grounds during playoffs and come home a winner or a covering loser.
Loss - No surprise to a few of you.
Central Arkansas +8 @ Georgia So – A little disrespect for CAU in this tournament who tied for their conference title with a team they beat, Sam Houston St. SHSU got the seed and the bye so Central Ark goes on the road to play one of those run-no pass- offenses. I’m taking what looks like generous points.
Push
Old Dominion -14 v Coastal Carolina – Another no play for me as Coastal Carolina gets into this playoff as a conf champ decided by a strange tie-break procedure. They lost to the best team in their conf, Stony Brook. They played last week and got an impressive road win. They have come on late in the season with some impressive outings, but not against a team like ODU who is moving up to FBS play next year.
Stony Brook +10 @ Montana St – Tough to go out to Montana and win a playoff game, but SB doesn’t have to win, just keep it close. Early this year they gave Syracuse one helluva battle in the Carrier Dome and they beat Army ( Ok, no big deal) No doubt the Bobcats play in a tougher conference. SB almost took down SHSU on the road last year, and a repeat gets me the money here.
Win
Cal Poly +12 @ Sam Houston St – Going against last year’s finalist because CP comes from a stronger (much? ) conference and I do like points added to my final score.
Win
Illinois St +4 @ Appalachian – Wrong team favored here? The Redbirds have won all 5 of their road encounters this season. No disrespect for Appy here, a former 3 time FCS champ, but all of their losses have come at home.
Win
Wagner + 20 @ Eastern Washington – I’m not going to invest here because although EWU comes out of a much stronger conference, and has playoff credentials – they were champs two years ago – all but one of their wins have been under the number. Wagner has a surprisingly good year and earns respect for their 30-0 shellacking of highly rated Albany several weeks back.
Adding
Linfield -5 v Wisconsin-Oshkosh Loss - led all way, gave up tying TD late, lost SU in OT
Winston-Salem -8 v Indiana Pa Loss- Won game by 4.
Wesley +13 @ Mary Hardin-Baylor Win - covered by one
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Semi Final picks are in Post # 52 & #56
We are now in the playoff arena in FCS, Division II and Division III. It’s an exciting time of season, fun to try and pick winners, and difficult to do so. Last week I went 0-4 in the FCS first round, but this was more than offset by 9-2 in the other divisions. I remind all that I recognize this is a much tougher selection process and I reduce my bet size accordingly.
I do not like 12+ teams in a conference with a (money money) playoff game but I know I’m in the minority and out of step with the times. 3 of this week’s 5 playoff games involve teams that have already played this season. The PAC 10 opponents faced one another just a week ago. So which theory do we subscribe to: - Team A has beaten team B already and have the confidence they can do it again OR it is difficult for a team to win two games in the same season against a strong opponent? Before we get to the undercard games for this week, I’m contradicting myself in two of the FBS playoff games.
Central Florida +2 1/2 @ Tulsa – These teams played at Tulsa 2 weeks back and the home team won by two. I don’t like the way Tulsa lost at home to SMU in their last so my play is on CFU to turn the tables in the rematch.
Loss - Tough beat
Nebraska – 3 -120 v Wisconsin – These same two teams played earlier in the season, a game played in Lincoln and won by Nebraska by 3 points. This looks like a repeat win on a neutral field based on better QB play for the Huskers against an opponent that lost 3 of its last 4 and really doesn’t belong here.
Loss - One of biggest coaching mismatches ever, which I failed to take into consideration
No Dakota St -8 v So Dakota St – NDS at home here, a repeat of a game won by NDS just two weeks ago by 3 points. Pick your poison. I have no investment in this game. My gut tells me the home team covers and it also is telling me that NDS will not repeat as FCS champion. This IS a game they could lose, so I pass.
New Hampshire +9 @ Wofford – Tough for visitors to win in this playoff arrangement, but I like the 9 points and don’t dislike UNH’s chances for a SU win. Wofford is a pure running team using whatever you call that offense run by all the service academies. I don’t think UNH holds them down but I do like their chances to match them on the scoreboard. UNH has been here before on enemy grounds during playoffs and come home a winner or a covering loser.
Loss - No surprise to a few of you.
Central Arkansas +8 @ Georgia So – A little disrespect for CAU in this tournament who tied for their conference title with a team they beat, Sam Houston St. SHSU got the seed and the bye so Central Ark goes on the road to play one of those run-no pass- offenses. I’m taking what looks like generous points.
Push
Old Dominion -14 v Coastal Carolina – Another no play for me as Coastal Carolina gets into this playoff as a conf champ decided by a strange tie-break procedure. They lost to the best team in their conf, Stony Brook. They played last week and got an impressive road win. They have come on late in the season with some impressive outings, but not against a team like ODU who is moving up to FBS play next year.
Stony Brook +10 @ Montana St – Tough to go out to Montana and win a playoff game, but SB doesn’t have to win, just keep it close. Early this year they gave Syracuse one helluva battle in the Carrier Dome and they beat Army ( Ok, no big deal) No doubt the Bobcats play in a tougher conference. SB almost took down SHSU on the road last year, and a repeat gets me the money here.
Win
Cal Poly +12 @ Sam Houston St – Going against last year’s finalist because CP comes from a stronger (much? ) conference and I do like points added to my final score.
Win
Illinois St +4 @ Appalachian – Wrong team favored here? The Redbirds have won all 5 of their road encounters this season. No disrespect for Appy here, a former 3 time FCS champ, but all of their losses have come at home.
Win
Wagner + 20 @ Eastern Washington – I’m not going to invest here because although EWU comes out of a much stronger conference, and has playoff credentials – they were champs two years ago – all but one of their wins have been under the number. Wagner has a surprisingly good year and earns respect for their 30-0 shellacking of highly rated Albany several weeks back.
Adding
Linfield -5 v Wisconsin-Oshkosh Loss - led all way, gave up tying TD late, lost SU in OT
Winston-Salem -8 v Indiana Pa Loss- Won game by 4.
Wesley +13 @ Mary Hardin-Baylor Win - covered by one
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