Buffalo @ Akron -3.5 ... Let's discuss!

Aztec4Life

Aztec4Life

Montezuma Mesa Survivor
These two teams will be duking it out for 1st place in the MAC East tomorrow night...thought I'd get some discussion rolling on this one.

I'm already on Buffalo +3. I'll post my reasoning in just a sec.

Game will be televised on ESPN U at 7:00pm EST.

:cheers:
 
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Akron is a solid football team this year. Having said that, I do feel that Buffalo has a much more opportunistic defense, which has really focused on creating turnovers this season. I've seen Buffalo play three times this season, and their safeties can HIT. One of them really does remind me of Bob Sanders, as the announcers pointed out repeatedly last week.

I also like Buffalo getting a FG in what should be a very, very tight game. These teams match up well against one another, but I think the key will be Willy's good decision making. The senior QB is having a stellar year, and if not for Nate Davis of the Cards, he could very well be MVP of the MAC, and is without a doubt the best QB in the MAC East this year.

Comparing the stats of Willy and Jacquemain, there is one thing that jumps out at me in particular...


<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspscbrdbg align=middle><TD class=ysptblhdr align=left colSpan=16 height=18>Passing</TD><TD class=yspwhitebg noWrap width=1 rowSpan=100><SPACER type="block" width="1" height="1"></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl height=18></TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left width="21%">Name</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>QBRat</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Comp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Int</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Long</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>YdsL</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=18></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>Drew Willy</TD><TD class=yspscores>9</TD><TD class=yspscores>141.0</TD><TD class=yspscores>286</TD><TD class=yspscores>179</TD><TD class=yspscores>62.6</TD><TD class=yspscores>2096</TD><TD class=yspscores>7.3</TD><TD class=yspscores>232.9</TD><TD class=yspscores>17</TD><TD class=yspscores>4</TD><TD class=yspscores>68</TD><TD class=yspscores>21</TD><TD class=yspscores>-145</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspscbrdbg align=middle><TD class=ysptblhdr align=left colSpan=16 height=18>Passing</TD><TD class=yspwhitebg noWrap width=1 rowSpan=100><SPACER type="block" width="1" height="1"></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl height=18></TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left width="21%">Name</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>QBRat</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Comp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Int</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Long</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>YdsL</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=18></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>Chris Jacqu</TD><TD class=yspscores>9</TD><TD class=yspscores>131.6</TD><TD class=yspscores>286</TD><TD class=yspscores>170</TD><TD class=yspscores>59.4</TD><TD class=yspscores>2052</TD><TD class=yspscores>7.2</TD><TD class=yspscores>228.0</TD><TD class=yspscores>17</TD><TD class=yspscores>11</TD><TD class=yspscores>49</TD><TD class=yspscores>14</TD><TD class=yspscores>-88</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Willy has a 4.25-1 TD/INT ratio, while Jacquemain has only a 1.5-1 TD/INT ratio. I think the Senior QB making the better decisions will be the deciding factor in this matchup. IMO, the Bulls have the top player at every offensive skill position. I believe the best receiver in this game, by far, is Naaman Roosevelt of the Bulls. The kid is a stud, and has 843 yards receiving on the year, averaging over 14 yards per catch, with 7 TDs. He's got tremendous hands, and great speed. Akron's running back, Kennedy, is a stud...but if I had my choice, I'd go with the Bulls starter James Starks, who is not only fast, but a big, bruising back, who fights hard for extra yardage on every carry. His stats mirror Kennedy's, but he's played two less games this season.

Just some of the reasons I like Buffalo. I'm also somewhat of a Turner Gil fan, who has really turned this Bulls program around. I think he brings a winning attitude, and I like how he hasn't been so conservative, even with the lead, in the Bulls most recent victories.
 
Honestly tho, I love these weeknight MAC matchups...they often prove to be some of the most entertaining games, as the teams are often very close in terms of talent and coaching.
 
guys, there is zero doubt in my mind that buffalo is the better team...every unit is probably better. also better coaching, and a better turnover margin. akron has been overachieving like mad this season and have done a lot with the talent they have, particularly offensively.

that being said, there is NO WAY i could back buffalo here. i can't tell you how much the LAST GAME EVER at the rubber bowl is adding to the fire of an already pivotal conference matchup. how many points does that mean? i don't know...but i'd definitely give it a couple. the table has been set way too perfect for akron here. and they have a style of offense that i believe buffalo will struggle with. buffalo offense has been very good and efficient but you never know what emotion can do with a defense -- surely the most important game any of these akron players have ever played -- can help the defense make plays.

gl fellas...stayin off a side in this one in favor of the under
 
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Broadway, Flat out, that is my biggest concern here. They are selling $1 tickets to pack this stadium for the last game but I've ridden Buffalo the last 2 weeks and I don't know if I am getting off now. Drew Willy is as reliable as it gets to take on the road. Starks has been a monster. They got player makers on the outside. They rarely turn the ball over. Willy does some things you can't teach and he is a fun QB to watch out there. Buffalo is hungry, they are on a role, and they can see the prize. I think this game should be a PK so I think I have some value with Buffalo +3.5. This is a game where I don't know if I'll be on the ML and I'll take my over the field goal spread because I think its going to be close.
 
yeah ETG, and akron fans might already be the best fans in the mac. they have been saturating radio and newspapers up here with this game since the beginning of the year! now even moreso since the game means something. all of the season ticket packages sold for the new stadium are including this game in the packages too. could end up being one of the biggest homefield advantages ever seen by the mac. the stadium is nearly 70 years old and holds over 30000, which i expect will be nearly full. the history of the stadium presentation and a fireworks display will be played after the game, and a lot of former players will be in attendance.
 
Good Luck with this one, Aztec.
I guess you could call me a MAC junkie or a degenerate but I play a lot of MAC games. Sort of one step up from my FCS teams.
I feel very lucky to have won both MAC games last night, and will probably not push my luck any further here. ( If I got ESPNU, I might feel differently.) lol
One thing I find interesting is that with these two teams being in the same division of the same conference, ARMY is their only common opponent . If , like me , you place some stock in perfromance vs common opponents, then you look at Akron winning At Miche 22-3 and Buff winning at home in OT 27-24. Which may well be why Akron is favored.
Enjoy the game. I'll have to settle for Tech-Miami and Jets-Pats. :tiphat:
 
Couple things here since Ill be on the sidelines tonight being a former Zip and all and it being the final game in the good ol rubber bowl. Akron offense is playing extremely well right now and I fully expect them to be on point tonight. The biggest question is, can the defense hold on. I expect the zips to get up early like they have been doing at home and then we'll see. The last game ever in the bowl is a big deal for these guys tonight.. they want to go out with the win.

Im personally not playing this game because I think akron will possibly get up early, IE the bowling green game and then will the offense slow down late and the defense start giving up points late and possibly lose this game.

They are certainly trying to pack the house because they basically offered all the former players as many tickets as we wanted for our families, etc. Its going to be rocking in there and the last time I can remember a game being this hyped up was the marshall game vs leftwhich a few years back in which we took out marshall.. It was a huge home field advantage for us that game, granted we did knock out leftwhich for a good part of the game, but still the crowd was rocking.

But thats just my 2 cents.. Im expecting a game in the 30's for both teams tonight and we'll see if the akron D can hold on late..

good luck to all though and fear the roo!
 
"One thing I find interesting is that with these two teams being in the same division of the same conference, ARMY is their only common opponent . If , like me , you place some stock in perfromance vs common opponents, then you look at Akron winning At Miche 22-3 and Buff winning at home in OT 27-24. Which may well be why Akron is favored."

Buffalo vs Army Diff: total yds Rush Pass
<table style="width: 501px; height: 24px;" class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl2">10/18/08</td> <td class="datacell"> ARMY</td> <td class="datacell"> W 27-24 x</td> <td class="datacell"> L -10.5</td> <td class="datacell"> O 45.5</td> <td class="datacell"> -52</td> <td class="datacell"> -279</td> <td class="datacell"> 227</td></tr></tbody></table>
Akron vs Army

<table style="width: 506px; height: 24px;" class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl2">09/20/08</td> <td class="datacell"> @ARMY</td> <td class="datacell"> W 22-3 </td> <td class="datacell"> W -10</td> <td class="datacell"> U 47</td> <td class="datacell"> 134</td> <td class="datacell"> -7</td> <td class="datacell"> 141</td></tr></tbody></table>
Looking a bit closer at performance against similar competition, it seems as though Akron was able to stop the rush against Army, which looks like the difference. Akron was able to hold Army to 160yds rushing when Army usually averages 260. Akron was also able to average 8.2yd/attempt passing, which isn't hard to do against Army.

The HFA scares me tonight, as I was not aware that it was the last game in this stadium. Buff on the road has been $$...
<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td colspan="7" class="datahead">ATS | In-Depth </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">
</td> <td class="datahl2">W-L</td> <td class="datahl2">ATS</td> <td class="datahl2">Home</td> <td class="datahl2">Away</td> <td class="datahl2">Grass</td> <td class="datahl2">Turf</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td class="datahl2"> BUFF
AKR</td> <td class="datacell"> 5-4
5-4</td> <td class="datacell"> 5-3-0
6-3-0</td> <td class="datacell"> 1-3-0
2-2-0</td> <td class="datacell"> 4-0-0
4-1-0</td> <td class="datacell"> 4-3-0
0-0-0</td> <td class="datacell"> 1-0-0
6-3-0

</td></tr></tbody></table>Personally, I like the +3.5. Was raining in Akron this am, will be cloudy for the game with 10-20mph winds FWIW. Under???

Good luck to all.
 
i think unless its raining during the game, the rain this morning and today should do much damage to the field. The astroturf field doesnt do too bad with water
 
E.T.G. said:
Bull - Buffalo played Army without Starks, who obviously means a lot to this offense.
Click to expand...

i agree that starks is a very solid back. however, i don't think that gives them a pass for the performance during army, because thermilius isn't too much of a drop off at all even if he couldn't get going in that game. i personally don't think starks would made that much of a difference in buff's running game that day. buffalo's main deficiency in that game was that they couldn't stop army. i think buffalo is entitled to have a game like that though--as long as they held on to win which they did...especially off two tough losses to top tier mac teams
 
gotta go with under here for the week night mac game.. but after that BS TD that starks had in garbage time to screw my under, i dont know if i have the heart too. My butthole is still hurting from that TD
 
^trueblue this total is out of control imo...i put it at a full td lower. with the importance of this game, both defenses come to play tonight
 
broadwayjoe said:
i agree that starks is a very solid back. however, i don't think that gives them a pass for the performance during army, because thermilius isn't too much of a drop off at all even if he couldn't get going in that game. i personally don't think starks would made that much of a difference in buff's running game that day. buffalo's main deficiency in that game was that they couldn't stop army. i think buffalo is entitled to have a game like that though--as long as they held on to win which they did...especially off two tough losses to top tier mac teams
Click to expand...

We will agree to disagree about the dropoff from Starks and I agree we can give them a pass on that Army game. I think when you look at what Buffalo has done on the road this year, its pretty encouraging for Buff backers. Won at Ohio, lost by 2 @ CMU, played Mizz tough for 3 quarters, and lost by 11 at Pitt. Buffalo is 4-0 ATS on the road this year as well. Akron is 2-2 ATS at home and the results vary. Ball St is just a superior team, they played their hearts out versus Cinci, BGSU was a tough loss and they beat Toledo by 17 at home. Akron is giving up an average of 32ppg in their last 4 MAC contests and Buffalo has shown the ability to score points averaging 30.5ppg in their last 4 MAC contests. Game is pretty tough but I'm having a hard time passing up more than a FG in a game I think should be PK.
 
home teams on Thursdays are golden. Dont know the #s but its good. Akron for me with small under play prob
 
broadwayjoe said:
etg you don't like thermilius? guy is a badass...love the way he runs.
Click to expand...

agree,, he is no James Starks but he provides a great one-two punch..

He was not all that electric in the Army game as I recall.. Just OK.. With Starks Buffalo would have had a much easier time IMO..
 
Akron is a scoring and give up scores machine.....every time I looked up in most of their MAC games the points are piling up. I think Buff can get 200+ on the ground (ala Kent last night).
 
its not that I don't like Thermilius, I just think Starks could be a RB at a bigger school than Buffalo. He has a real nice combo of size/speed and makes excellent cuts with good vision. Starks is better than everyone on the field trying to tackle him imo.
 
Good stuff here fellas.

ZipStar - Thanks for the info about the last game at the rubber bowl. Much appreciated...enjoy the game bud.

This does give me some reason for pause, but ETG hit the nail on the head...just can't pass up what I feel is the better team, getting 3 points (or more) in what should be a close contest. 4-0 ATS on the road? Wow.

:shake:
 
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