Breeders' Cup 2014 @ Santa Anita 10/31-11/1

Juvenile Turf

1) Wet Sail: One of many Euro based runners here, son of Henrythenavigator should appreciate the stretchout to 1 Mile, should get a nice pace scenario to run into sitting back with many frontrunners signed on here. Contender for at least a minor award.

2) Daddy D T: Lone win has come at at this surface and distance down in Del Mar closing into moderate fractions, switched to dirt in latest where he was no match for American Pharaoh. Full brother to Amarish who was best sprinting on dirt. Looks like a toss.

3) Luck of the Kitten: May be the speed of the speed and showed me a lot in latest battling back and pulling away after conceding the lead at the top of the stretch over this course. Bred for the turf and to run all day, being out of Kitten's Joy and Giant's Causeway mare. Shouldn't have to deal with traffic but will be pressured, still a top contender.

4) Commemorative: Ships over coming after winning his last 2 in GB, the last being a Group 3 effort. Will be one of those pressing the early pace and has experience running in big fields and at the distance, right now probably my 2nd choice.

5) Hootenanny: Just missed in his last a Group 1 in France and won a minor stakes in GB before that, but hasn't run past 6F and from the replays I've watched don't know if he will last the mile in company here. Will take money and I will try to beat.

6) Conquest Typhoon: Canadian shipper Earned his way in with a win in the G2 Summer over a yielding turf at Woodbine, Casse opted to stay home for the Grey for final prep rather than shipping. Could get a nice set up rating off the early speed capable but think a notch below some of the others.

7) War Envoy: Has been running in group races in Europe and has been close in a few of them. The stretchout to the mile might help here along with the addition of Lasix. Will be towards the rear early on and look to make one run late which might be the preferred style here. Trainer/Jockey won this race in 2011 and 2012.

8) Offering Plan: Making just his 3rd start for Brown, rana a level 3rd the Pilgrim in last effort. Think a little outclassed here.

9}Aktabantay: Another who has been facing Group company in Europe and winner of a Group 3 and adding Lasix, will be settled back early and look to make late run in the lane, will use underneath as he may close for a piece.

10) Startup Nation: NY bred ran a field best turf Beyer of 85 in taking G2 With Anticipation up in Saratoga, made a very impressive move around the far turn from last about 9 lengths back entering turn and grabbed the lead exiting the turn going 4-5 wide only to pull away and win by 4+. Couldn't repeat that effort in the next out in the Pilgrim at odds on where he caught some traffic and looked uncomfortable being forced up the rail. Outside post should help here as should what appears to be a brisk early pace. Must use at 12-1 ML and my current top choice.

11) Imperia: Got the trip in the Pilgrim Startup Nation hoped to get coming 4 wide and being able to run down the front runner for the win. Look for these 2 to start their move together but think the other has shown a better turn of foot and should be a better number.

12) International Star: Another NY bred, won the G3 Grey over the synthetic in Woodbine in a slow time in latest effort and was a well beaten 2nd best in the With Anticipation 2 back. Hasn't missed the exacta in 4 starts but still think he is a notch below here.

13) Lawn Ranger: Got a great trip sitting 3rd off the battling speed duo in winning the G3 Bourbon in last, will probably need to go a little early to sit in that spot here from this post and then hold off a better group of closers than he faced there, another that may be used underneath for a piece at a nice price.

14) Danny Boy: Ran just behind Lawn Ranger in in the Bourbon and probably wants all of that 8.5F if not more, not sure he will get going in time in the flat mile.
 
BC Dirt Mile:

1) Goldencents: Defending Champ will be sent from the get go here from the rail, stretching back out after some true sprint efforts will have to catch him and the rest may be running for place. In another sport trainer O'Neill's suspension might be a worry but I have no doubt he has still been calling every shot and just won't be saddling his horses. Will be a very short price so despite being a very logical winner may still try to beat some but will not heavily invest against him.

2) Carve: If you concentrate on races run at 8 and 8.5F his form looks much better, will be back off of the leaders a couple of lengths and then look for room to make a move, wouldn't surprise to hit the board but don't see as a true win candidate.

3) Vicar's In Trouble: Has some early speed and may be able to press Goldencents a bit up front, for me though I only see as a pace presence.

4) Pants on Fire: Hasn't run a bad race this year and all between 98-106 Beyer , but won only one of them and lost by a neck to Golden Ticket 2 back in the Left Bank at Belmont, but also came into this race last year with a similar resume and only managed a 7th place finish, quality G2 or 3 runner probably a level below the top ones here.

5) Handsome Mike: Another O'Neill trainee doesn't find the winners circle very often (3 wins in 30 starts) and probably runs better over turf. Toss.

6) Golden Ticket: Always runs his race and can rate just off or make a late charge, consistently hits the board and ran a nice 2nd to Goldencents in this race last year, could add a nice price underneath in the exotics.

7) Bronzo: South American shipper is the wild card in this bunch as he seems to relish the mile distance and has run some good times in those efforts averaging about 1:34.4, gets Lasix for the first time and carries 8 pounds less than his last race. Hasn't run since June but has been at Santa Anita training since mid-September, last 3 works look good with 2 47.1 4F works and a 5F work in 59.4. Would consider a B in multi race tickets and another price to use underneath at the least in vertical tickets.

8) Fed Biz: Couldn't hold off Shared Belief in latest despite getting a lot of help in trying to defeat that one at 9F, seems to need the lead on dirt and probably better on synthetic. See a similar finish to his last 2 tries at this race 6th last year and 8th in 2012.

9) Tapiture: Only bad effort was the Kentucky Derby, another whose form improves concentrating on 8 and 8.5F races. Will be off the pace and hoping someone else can do the dirty work of going with Goldencents before he tries to run them down late. The most logical threat to the top choice but would like to see 8-1 or higher to get get involved too much.

10) Big Bane Theory: Capable turfer will be making first start over conventional dirt. Don't really understand the placement here and is a toss for me.
 
Juvenile Filly Turf

1) Partisan Politics: Had to work through a lot of traffic in last but did come on a bit late, may want to go a little longer than 8F.

2) Osaila: Has been good across the pond winning 3 of her last 4 and seems to like a firm ground, looms an outside shot.

3) Sunset Glow: Won last 2 over synthetic at Del Mar but does have good turf form running just behind Cursory Glance in a 21 horse field at Ascot 3 back, should be right on or pressing the early lead and the one to beat, top choice.

4) Lady Eli: 2 for 2 at 8.5F, took advantage of a perfect trip in G3 Grill in last, seems the best of 4 signed on in here for Brown, expect to sit just off the leaders and look to be involved when they hit the wire.

5) Isabella Sings: Got necked in latest over a yielding turf and can't knock either of her 2 efforts but seems to be a notch below the top runners here.

6) Sivoliere: Ships from France to the Brown barn, won both tries over a firm turf, gets Lasix and should appreciate the added distance on the stretchout. Will use underneath.

7) Rainha de Bateria: Was forced way wide by Partisan Politics in the first turn 2 back and never really engaged in that one. Did come back and win last a G3 at Keeneland closing into fast fractions and did break maiden at first asking at 5.5F so appears versatile enough to be a factor here.

8) Nicky's Brown Miss: Never got involved in the Grillo in last effort and has not been very consistent in her short career, toss.

9) Lady Zuzu: Drew away impressively breaking her maiden in last but the waters get much deeper, may find herself on the early lead but I view as a pace presence only.

10) Quality Rocks: Chased some fast fractions in first turf effort last out and briefly grabbed the lead there before being caught by a deep closer, she was 4 clear of the show horse however. Figures to be forwardly placed and certainly wouldn't shock to hold on for a piece.

11) Conquest Harlanate: Winner of 3 straight up in Woodbine and has shown some versatility sprinting, routing stalking and closing which is nice trait in a field this big. Competition was a step below what she will face here, however, and think a minor award is her ceiling.

12) Tammy the Torpedo: 4th entry for the Brown barn here stalked a slow pace in the Grillo down on the rail and by the time she found some running room was too late to catch the leaders, did show a mild kick and another to use underneath.

13) Prize Exhibit: Another shipping from GB and getting Lasix for the first time, seemed a little outclassed with the jump to group compnay in her last 3 and not sure the stretchout helps much here.

14) Qualify: Change of tactics seemed to help in taking Group 3 in Ireland in latest as she was dropped back and made one run to close strong and win by 4 lengths, those same tactics should help here from this far outside post and also adds Lasix for the first time. Have to respect everything from the O'Brien barn and this one is a win contender.
 
Distaff

1) L' Amour de Ma Vie: Euro shipper has won 1 of 6 starts this year against group company in Europe and all those start were over turf, has never run on conventional dirt and I don't think this is the field you want to start trying new things against. Pass.

2) Tiz Midnight: 4 year old has quickly ascended the class ladder breaking her maiden in June, ran a good second to Beholder in the G1 Zenyatta and now in BC Distaff. Speedy type will be sent to the lead from this inside post along with several others and her lack of seasoning may catch up with her here. Certainly has talent but will side with some more experienced runners.

3) Iotapa: Ran huge 3 back over this course in the G1 Vanity winning by 10 lengths, wants to be on on near the lead and after breaking a step slow in the Zenyatta in last never really contested, does like like running here as all 7 starts have been in the money, but will limit to use underneath as she will be in tough right from the get go with the other speed here.

4) Belle Gellantey: Took them wire to wire to draw off by 8 in the Beldame and has been a different horse since moving into the Rudy Rod barn, has shown an ability to rate and that would be helpful with the other speed signed on here, would like to see a little more than the 6-1 ML on the board but think she has a chance, don't ignore.

5) Unbridled Forever: Graded stakes placed 3 year old tries older for the first time and while she has been able to pick up some minor awards in a few of those the waters are much deeper here. Think she's in a little over her head here, pass.

6) Stanwyck: Has hit the board in 6 of 7 starts this year, but none for the top spot and running 3rd in a 7 horse field much easier than getting in the money against this field, toss.

7) Don't Tell Sophia: Comes in off a win in the G1 Spinster where she was last and 10 lengths behind early. Should get a nice pace set up in front of her here to run into, and has shown an ability to go wide and avoid traffic. Contender.

8) Valiant Emilia: South American shipper is the big unknown in this field, has shown an ability to get any distance, has fought on through when in traffic, drops 10 pounds from latest effort, picks top local jock Bejarano and has been training well since shipping here early and getting accustomed to the track. HAve to question the quality she has been facing but among the things to like is the long odds she is expected to go off at, will use at least underneath to fill out some exotics and perhaps sprinkle on top on a few tickets as well.

9) Ria Antonia: 3yo shocked in grabbing the Juvenile Filly here last year via DQ and has had some curious placement during this year including an ill advised Preakness run by these ambitious connections that have left her not crossing the finish line first since breaking her maiden, 3 2nd place finishes this year in 8 attempts, including her last try in the G1 Spinster. A minor award would be a stretch here and can't see her battling for the win.

10) Untapable: 3yo's only non win came when trying to tackle the boys in the Haskell when Bayern freaked. The big question is what happened here last year for the Juvenile Filly where she really never ran a step and Asmussen had no excuse for it, latest workout was a little subpar and it is a possibility she doesn't like the California air. However, she should be able to work out a nice stalking trip from this outside post and if she is herself a major threat.

11) Close Hatches: Runner up finisher in this race last year to Beholder had reeled off 3 straight G1 victories before throwing in a dud in her latest in the Spinster at odds on. Like to be on or near the lead but doesn't have to be out front, Rosario stays up here and he should be able to pick his spot to duck inside before the first turn. Not gonna be a big price but the Distaff has historically been the most formful of the big Breeders Cup races, and if she runs her race will be the one to beat.
 
Just looking at the charts for Santa Anita during this meet, since its the first time around on the new dirt surface, it looks like unless you're seeing a sub 22 first quarter in a sprint or a sub 23 first quarter in a route, the horses on the lead or within 1 to 1 1/2 lengths are dominating the races. And even when there is a "blast off" pace the winners are typically within 4 lengths of the pace. So for a 21.8 quarter you still need you horse to be able to go about 22.5 and close strong.

That's puts a deeper closer like a Don't Tell Sophia, who tends to go out in 23+, at a real disadvantage IMO. I'll be dropping the deep closers from win consideration, especially in the routes.

On the turf, I'm seeing winners coming from all points on the track. It's going to be the class edge of the Euro shippers there that will most likely shape my tickets. For the downhill sprint it always seems to be horses with past success on the quirky course (Sweet Swap, Ambitious Brew and Home Run Kitten fit) or those cutting back from longer turf races (Something Extra and Silentio come to mind) that seem to do well.
 
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Juvenile Fillies

1) Feathered: Dominated what in hindsight looks like a weak field in breaking her maiden 2 back, came back and ran an even 3rd in the slop in the G1 Frizette. Will look to gun it from the rail in her first try around 2 turns and try to hold on. Prefer others.

2) Angela Renee: Sat a perfect stalking trip in taking the the G1 Chandelier over this course and distance in last. Don't think she gets as good a setup here and will be a short price, will limit my use to underneath and try to beat her.

3) Danette: Broke OK abut dropped back after a fw strides in last in the Chadelier, had to navigate through some traffic before finding some running room but never really made a dent in the leads of Angela Renee or Conquest Eclipse. Pass.

4) Conquest Eclipse: Another that had to over come some traffic in the Chandelier in her latest to come on for for 2nd, may be able to turn the tables on Angela Renee with a better trip, a couple of sub :59 5F works shows she likes the dirt here and maybe will be a little more forwardly placed. Will use at least underneath, think she has a shot.

5) Cristina's Journey: 2 for 2 and has never trailed at any point of call projects as the one to catch and has a good chance to hold on for at least a piece.

6) Take Charge Brandi: Hasn't been a factor in her last 3 efforts, all graded stakes, will be fighting for the early lead and don't see her hanging on late, pass.

7) Majestic Presence: Broke the maiden in wire to wire fashion down in Del Mar and then was taken off the pace and stuck 4 wide throughout in the Chandelier, did make a nice middle move around the turn before finishing a weakening 4th there, needs to show some improvement but with a better trip can be involved late at what should be a nice price.

8) Puca: Broke maiden by 16 in last over a good track at Belmont, has impressed early in the mornings with some nice works back east leading to this and adds Lasix for the first time. May be able to get a nice stalking trip here and wouldn't be a shock.

9) Hennythelovepenny: Maybe an early pace presence for this one coming in off a maiden victory, was facing maiden claimers over the synthetic in first 2 tries and is breed to sprint over turf/synthetic, toss.

10) Wonder Gal: Dominated NY breds in a state bred stakes in first going and has held her own in graded stakes in her subsequent tries. Limit to underneath if at all.

11) Top Decile: Twink's boy Stall sends this one out here who missed the break and was stuck in between horses early in the Alcibiades as the rain came pouring down down before making a monster move and splitting horses at the top of the stretch , briefly got in front before being caught late. Will need a better break here but think Twinkie will be upset not being in attendance and getting another kiss from Rosie in the winner's circle.

12) By the Moon: Caught the slop in each of her last 2, both good efforts, doesn't need the lead type should be able to work out a nice stalking trip from this outside post and expect to be involved at the wire. Contender.
 
Gandolf said:
Just looking at the charts for Santa Anita during this meet, since its the first time around on the new dirt surface, it looks like unless you're seeing a sub 22 first quarter in a sprint or a sub 23 first quarter in a route, the horses on the lead or within 1 to 1 1/2 lengths are dominating the races. And even when there is a "blast off" pace the winners are typically within 4 lengths of the pace. So for a 21.8 quarter you still need you horse to be able to go about 22.5 and close strong.

That's puts a deeper closer like a Don't Tell Sophia, who tends to go out in 23+, at a real disadvantage IMO. I'll be the deep closers from win consideration, especially in the routes.

On the turf, I'm seeing winners coming from all points on the track. It's going to be the class edge of the Euro shippers there that will most likely shape my tickets. For the downhill sprint it always seems to be horses with past success on the quirky course (Sweet Swap, Ambitious Brew and Home Run Kitten fit) or those cutting back from longer turf races (Something Extra and Silentio come to mind) that seem to do well.
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Couldn't agree more here, as the first thing I look for when capping these downhill turf sprints is past success over the course, downhill, a right hand turn, a stretch of dirt before coming home makes for some fun and interesting races.
 
Filly and Mare Turf

1) Abaco: Consistent if not spectacular runner usually runs her race, has the stamina to run here through the wire but probably not the needed speed to challenge for the win, a price candidate to maybe fill out some of the exotics.

2) Just the Judge: High quality runner is a Group 1 winner in Ireland and took home the G1 EP Taylor in Woodbine just 2 weeks ago. Quick turnaround in back to back 10F efforts the concern here but as classy as any entered here and a major threat.

3) Dank: Defending champ of this race has had a quiet year trying males in Dubai in March and running way behind Magician and The Fugue at Royal Ascot in June. Has run well off a break in the past and all reports are she is looking good here, will be a short price but ignore at your own peril, top threat.

4) Dayatthespa: Appears to be the early pace setter but has never been past 9F and will be hard pressed to hold on late in the lane.

5) Secret Gesture: Has yet to win a group effort in Europe but has just missed in several and love the effort she gave 2 back in the Group 2 York Stakes, has no problem running in company and goes when asked. Along with the other Euro's a top contender and may be the one who goes least noticed by the bettors.

6) Fiesolana: Probably a step below the other Euro's and the one that may not want to go the 10F, did win a Group 1 in Ireland at a mile 2 back, tough to get a read on.

7) Emollient: Went out to the lead in this event last year and was only beaten a length when finishing 4th, just took the G1 Rodeo Dr. over the course and distance in latest effort coming from off the pace so has the versatility to adapt to whatever the pace may be. The 2 previous attempts were rather lackluster but may be the chance of an American horse here. Will use underneath.

8) Irish Mission: Had a tough trip in the Rodeo Drive before deadheating for the show in latest, had to steady entering the turn and lost a good deal of ground there, did show a nice late kick though. Could loom dangerous at a big price.

9) Parranda: Probably got the best trip of those exiting the Rodeo Dr and couldn't hold off Emollient in that late, should be forwardly placed and likes this turf course another that could be around near the finish at a price in this wide open event.

10) Stephanie's Kitten: Appears to be at the top of her game right now and has ducked no one in going in 7 straight G1 events, will be a short price for Brown and Velazquez. Did throw exercise rider after her work on Oct 19 and galloped around before being caught by the outrider, didn't appear to suffer any injuries there but still not something you want to see.

11) Rusty Slipper: Would really need to improve to contend with the top ones in here as she has done most of here running at Monmouth and Tampa not usually the place to see BC winners exit from. Pass.
 
Lost my write write up for the Filly and Mare Sprint and have to pack. Will post my thoughts on the rest of the card later.
 
Lloyd, appreciate all you have done here. Been handicapping the horses for a long time. I plan on throwing my takes out there later on this evening. Will be posting my plays from Canterbury Park in MN. Wish you guys the best of luck. I am solely a pick 4 and pick 5 player as well as a win bettor.
 
YoungGun11 said:
Lloyd, appreciate all you have done here. Been handicapping the horses for a long time. I plan on throwing my takes out there later on this evening. Will be posting my plays from Canterbury Park in MN. Wish you guys the best of luck. I am solely a pick 4 and pick 5 player as well as a win bettor.
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Look forward to hearing your thoughts Younggun, I don't do well with the multi race tickets but have been on that part of my handicapping, seem to do my best work on hitting exacta and trifecta's.

Schrute said:
invaluable stuff man

Thanks for all the hard work
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:shake: Thanks Dwight
 
Steve Andersen, Santa Anita - DRF Live
1 hour ago.​

[h=3]Trainer Michael Chang discusses Rich Tapestry[/h]Rich Tapestry, based in Hong Kong, won his American debut in the G1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship on Oct. 4. The win makes him a contender in Saturday's BC Sprint.
Trainer Michael Chang said on Thursday it's all-systems go.
"I think he will run a really good race on Saturday," he said.
Chang said that Rich Tapestry took to California very well after arriving in late September.
"He handled the new environment very quick," he said. "He settled in really well."
The 6yo Rich Tapestry beat two previous Breeders' Cup winners in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship- Goldencents, who won the 2013 BC Dirt Mile, and Secret Circle, who won the 2013 BC Sprint.
The win "surprised me," Chang said. "I hope he can do it again."
Chang said that Rich Tapestry will be considered for the $2 million Golden Shaheen for sprinters in Dubai in March. Rich Tapestry was second in the race last year.
 
Steve Andersen, Santa Anita - DRF Live
1 hour ago.​

[h=3]Rain is expected - at the right time[/h]There is a significant chance of rain at Santa Anita in the early morning hours of Saturday.
According to weather.com, rain is likely to start close to midnight and last until dawn. Rain is expected to be out of the area by Saturday morning. First post time is 10:15 a.m.
The National Weather Service projects up to a third of an inch.
"It won't be the worst thing in the world," track president Tom Ludt said on Thursday. "We could use the rain out here."
If rain develops, it will be the first such storm in this region in months. The state is in the midst of a severe drought.
 
[h=1]Eye protection for Sweet Reason[/h]By Marty McGee

ARCADIA, Calif. – Sweet Reason will be equipped with a transparent green bubble over her right eye Saturday in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint because of an injury she incurred in her last race, the Sept. 20 Cotillion at Parx.
“It doesn’t affect the way she goes,” trainer Leah Gyarmati said. “It’s just there as a precaution.”
Sweet Reason, owned by the Treadway Racing Stable of Jeff Treadway, is the leading earner in the field with a bankroll of $1,423,000 from just nine career starts. The only other millionaire is Better Lucky, a 5-year-old mare with nearly $1.1 million from 19 starts.
:: DRF Live: Real-time updates from the Breeders’ Cup, including live video coverage
◗ The first Breeders’ Cup starter Carlo Vaccarezza ever had as an owner won at 17-1. That was Little Mike, trained by Dale Romans, in the 2012 BC Turf at Santa Anita.
Now Vaccarezza has his first BC starter as a trainer: Little Alexis, who figures to be in the 17-1 range in the Filly and Mare Sprint.
“People better watch out for her, because the filly is doing super,” said Vaccarezza, a south Florida restaurateur who saddled his first starter at Gulfstream Park last November.
:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2014: Post positions, comments, and odds
◗ Gary Mandella, who sends out Living the Life in the Filly and Mare Sprint, has never officially saddled a Breeders’ Cup winner, although he almost literally saddled one in 2003, when his father, Richard, won a record four races on the Breeders’ Cup card.
The Mandella-trained Johar and High Chapparal had finished together in the BC Turf, and the long wait to determine that it was indeed a dead heat was followed by a drawn-out post-race ceremony.
“At one point, Dad said, ‘You better go saddle Pleasantly Perfect,’” said Gary Mandella, referring to the winner of the BC Classic. “But right before I was ready to do it, he was back from the winner’s circle.”
 
[h=1]Trainers hope to get off Breeders' Cup duck[/h]By David Grening

ARCADIA, Calif. – Trainers Mark Casse, Christophe Clement, Ken McPeek, John Sadler, and Wesley Ward have won a lot of races in their careers.
Oddly enough, none of the quintet has won a Breeders’ Cup race. It’s not for lack of trying. The five horsemen entered this year’s two-day Breeders’ Cup event a combined 0 for 112 in the series but have many live contenders this year.
Clement, winless with 23 starters, has three horses in this year’s event: Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Tonalist (Classic), Irish Mission (Filly and Mare Turf), and Summer Front (Mile).
Tonalist will be Clement’s third starter in the Classic. He finished third in the 2003 Classic with Dynever and second in 2009 with Gio Ponti.
:: DRF Live: Real-time updates from the Breeders’ Cup, including live video coverage
“It’s annoying,” Clement said of his Breeders’ Cup record. “I thought Gio Ponti ran a super race, had a great trip, got a great ride from Ramon Dominguez. He took the lead. I thought we had it won until Zenyatta, the champion that she was, came and beat him.”
Clement believes all three of his horses have good chances.
“I think even if Summer Front and Irish Mission are outsiders, I think they’re very live outsiders, and Tonalist is well known,” Clement said.
Sadler, who has won more than 2,100 races on the Southern California circuit, is 0 for 31 in the Breeders’ Cup. His filly Switch had two seconds and a third in the Filly and Mare Sprint.
Sadler has four horses to run this year, including Sweet Swap in Saturday’s Turf Sprint and Candy Boy in the Classic. On Friday, he runs Daddy D T in the Turf Sprint and Iotapa in the Distaff.
“I used to be a little harder on myself than I am this year,” Sadler said. “Do I have anything that is 4-5 or 6-5? No. We haven’t won one, but I feel they have run well on these big days. We haven’t won one, but I feel like as a trainer, knowing the kind of stock I have, I trained them up to get them to this level.”
Ward is 0 for 16 in the Breeders’ Cup, with Judy the Beauty having run second in last year’s Filly and Mare Sprint. Judy the Beauty is one of four program morning-line favorites whom Ward is running this year. That includes No Nay Never in Saturday’s Turf Sprint, a race in which Ward also runs the longshot Undrafted. On Friday, Ward runs Hootenanny in the Juvenile Turf and Sunset Glow in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2014: Post positions, comments, and odds
“It’s everybody’s dream to win the Breeders’ Cup,” Ward said. “You put so much time and effort into it. It would really mean a lot.”
Casse is expected to have four chances to snap his 0-for-19 mark in the Breeders’ Cup. On Saturday, he runs Conquest Eclipse in the Juvenile Fillies and Kaigun in the Mile. On Friday, he runs Conquest Typhoon in the Juvenile Turf and Conquest Harlanate in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
McPeek, 0 for 23 in the Breeders’ Cup, with 5 seconds and 8 thirds, has Golden Ticket to run in Friday’s Dirt Mile.
 
[h=1]Velvet Mesquite brings success on downhill course into Sen. Ken Maddy[/h]By Steve Andersen

ARCADIA, Calif. – Velvet Mesquite won her stakes debut in the California Distaff Handicap on the hillside turf course at Santa Anita on Oct. 11. By the next morning, trainer Blake Heap began plotting a schedule to have the massive 4-year-old filly ready for Saturday’s $100,000 Sen. Ken Maddy Stakes over the same hillside turf course.
“She seems like she took the race fine,” Heap said. “I had a lot of time between races before her last start.”
There is an urgency to run Velvet Mesquite this weekend. After Sunday, there are no races on the hillside turf course until the winter-spring meeting opens Dec. 26. Del Mar does not have any stakes for turf sprinters at its November meeting. Los Alamitos, which has a race meeting in December, does not have a turf course.
Velvet Mesquite is part of a field of 14 in the Grade 3 Sen. Ken Maddy, run over about 6 1/2 furlongs. The race is likely to have fewer starters. Ageless has drawn into the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint later in the day, following the withdrawal Wednesday of Free as a Bird.
KEY CONTENDERS
Velvet Mesquite (Last 3 Beyers: 89-61-87)
◗ Owned by Harris Farms, Velvet Mesquite has won 5 of 6 starts on the hillside turf course in her nine-race career. She is winless in three starts on dirt and synthetic tracks.
◗ In the California Distaff Handicap for statebreds, Velvet Mesquite led throughout, winning by a half-length over Heat Trap. Heap said Velvet Mesquite, who stands nearly 17 hands, can be effective as a stalker for jockey Mike Smith in the Maddy.
“Mike tells me we’ll be just off of it,” he said. “It will be up to him. You look at her, you think she’s a miler.”
Gender Agenda (Last 2 Beyers: 89-75)
◗ Gender Agenda won her U.S. debut in an allowance race over a mile on turf at Del Mar on Sept. 3 and was second in the Unzip Me Stakes for 3-year-old fillies on the hillside turf course Sept. 27. Trainer Carla Gaines said she had hoped to run Gender Agenda in the Autumn Miss Stakes over a mile on turf Aug. 25.
Gender Agenda “was a little erratic” in the Unzip Me, Gaines said. “She’ll be a little better with experience on it.”
◗ Gender Agenda will be ridden for the first time by Javier Castellano, a replacement for Joe Talamo, who has the mount on Fanticola.
Richies Party Girl (Last 3 Beyers: 88-53-91)
◗ Richies Party Girl beat males in the $101,000 Juvenile Turf Sprint here last November in her only start on the hillside turf course.
◗ Trained by Wesley Ward, Richies Party Girl has won two stakes this year – the Wait a While Stakes over seven furlongs on turf against 3-year-old fillies at Belmont Park in May and the Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint over 6 1/2 furlongs on turf Sept. 13.
 
Lloyd Braun said:
Trainers hope to get off Breeders' Cup duck

By David Grening

ARCADIA, Calif. – Trainers Mark Casse, Christophe Clement, Ken McPeek, John Sadler, and Wesley Ward have won a lot of races in their careers.
Oddly enough, none of the quintet has won a Breeders’ Cup race. It’s not for lack of trying. The five horsemen entered this year’s two-day Breeders’ Cup event a combined 0 for 112 in the series but have many live contenders this year.
Clement, winless with 23 starters, has three horses in this year’s event: Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Tonalist (Classic), Irish Mission (Filly and Mare Turf), and Summer Front (Mile).
Tonalist will be Clement’s third starter in the Classic. He finished third in the 2003 Classic with Dynever and second in 2009 with Gio Ponti.
:: DRF Live: Real-time updates from the Breeders’ Cup, including live video coverage
“It’s annoying,” Clement said of his Breeders’ Cup record. “I thought Gio Ponti ran a super race, had a great trip, got a great ride from Ramon Dominguez. He took the lead. I thought we had it won until Zenyatta, the champion that she was, came and beat him.”
Clement believes all three of his horses have good chances.
“I think even if Summer Front and Irish Mission are outsiders, I think they’re very live outsiders, and Tonalist is well known,” Clement said.
Sadler, who has won more than 2,100 races on the Southern California circuit, is 0 for 31 in the Breeders’ Cup. His filly Switch had two seconds and a third in the Filly and Mare Sprint.
Sadler has four horses to run this year, including Sweet Swap in Saturday’s Turf Sprint and Candy Boy in the Classic. On Friday, he runs Daddy D T in the Turf Sprint and Iotapa in the Distaff.
“I used to be a little harder on myself than I am this year,” Sadler said. “Do I have anything that is 4-5 or 6-5? No. We haven’t won one, but I feel they have run well on these big days. We haven’t won one, but I feel like as a trainer, knowing the kind of stock I have, I trained them up to get them to this level.”
Ward is 0 for 16 in the Breeders’ Cup, with Judy the Beauty having run second in last year’s Filly and Mare Sprint. Judy the Beauty is one of four program morning-line favorites whom Ward is running this year. That includes No Nay Never in Saturday’s Turf Sprint, a race in which Ward also runs the longshot Undrafted. On Friday, Ward runs Hootenanny in the Juvenile Turf and Sunset Glow in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2014: Post positions, comments, and odds
“It’s everybody’s dream to win the Breeders’ Cup,” Ward said. “You put so much time and effort into it. It would really mean a lot.”
Casse is expected to have four chances to snap his 0-for-19 mark in the Breeders’ Cup. On Saturday, he runs Conquest Eclipse in the Juvenile Fillies and Kaigun in the Mile. On Friday, he runs Conquest Typhoon in the Juvenile Turf and Conquest Harlanate in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
McPeek, 0 for 23 in the Breeders’ Cup, with 5 seconds and 8 thirds, has Golden Ticket to run in Friday’s Dirt Mile.
Click to expand...

I don't see McPeek or Clement getting off the duck this weekend. Sadler's Sweet Swap and Iotapa have big shots. For Ward, I like his Friday chances better than Saturday but I think his troops will burn a lot of money this weekend. Casse's best shot looks like Conquest Eclipse in the Juvy Fillies.
 
Horses in the non-classic dirt races that typically lay 4 or more lengths back and IMO will be burning win ticket money:

Dirt Mile - Technically only Golden Ticket. Tapiture is usually 3 1/2 back, but hasn't seen a sub 47 sec half mile since September last year, so there's cause for concern there. Big Bane Theory is coming out of turf routes except one mile race on the Delmar poly that had a pedestrian pace. Bronzo comes from 9-11 furlong races in Chile, so I'm skeptical of his early speed. There's 4 of 9 I think can be scratched out of the winner's spot.

Distaff - Unbridled Forever, Stanwyck, Don't Tell Sophia.

Juvy Fillies - Hard to classify any of these lightly raced horses as stone cold closer types but Danette and Top Decile were both rated well back in their last starts.

Filly & Mare Sprint - Sweet Reason, Little Alexis, Thank You Marylou, Better Lucky.

Juvenile - Texas Red

Sprint - Mico Margarita (who might be a great key for 3rd in Tri's or 4th in Supers. Salutos Amigos is borderline and racing on 1 week's rest.
 
Love all the analysis...great insight....I look for prices
Tomorrow's card
Juv turf #1
Juv Filly Turf #6
Dirt Mile #4
Distaff #6


best of luck to you all
 
Gandolf said:
Horses in the non-classic dirt races that typically lay 4 or more lengths back and IMO will be burning win ticket money:

Dirt Mile - Technically only Golden Ticket. Tapiture is usually 3 1/2 back, but hasn't seen a sub 47 sec half mile since September last year, so there's cause for concern there. Big Bane Theory is coming out of turf routes except one mile race on the Delmar poly that had a pedestrian pace. Bronzo comes from 9-11 furlong races in Chile, so I'm skeptical of his early speed. There's 4 of 9 I think can be scratched out of the winner's spot.

Distaff - Unbridled Forever, Stanwyck, Don't Tell Sophia.

Juvy Fillies - Hard to classify any of these lightly raced horses as stone cold closer types but Danette and Top Decile were both rated well back in their last starts.

Filly & Mare Sprint - Sweet Reason, Little Alexis, Thank You Marylou, Better Lucky.

Juvenile - Texas Red

Sprint - Mico Margarita (who might be a great key for 3rd in Tri's or 4th in Supers. Salutos Amigos is borderline and racing on 1 week's rest.
Click to expand...

if 10-1 hold for Top Decile....
 
Hard to get past Goldencents being a single on my pick 4 ticket. The good news is opens the other four races up a little.

Juvy Turf - The Euros appear to have a clear edge in class and performance figs, with only Startup Nation being worth a look of the North American horses. I'm just using four, as Faithful Creek draws in but looks a cut below the others: 1,4,5,7

Dirt Mile - It's Goldencents race to lose, and with only 9 in the field, being the speed of the speed and drawing the shortest trip along the rail, he's as close to a sure thing as there is this year. Will use Tapiture on saver Pick 3 ticket.

Juvenile Fillies - The is probably the most wide open race today as North American fillies Sunset Glow, Conquest Harlanate, Lady Eli and Isabella Sings do not look too far behind the Euros and unlike the boys, this race has a more favorable history for the NA's. Going 8 deep does not look unreasonable: 2,3,4,5,6,11,13,14.

Distaff - Nothing particularly clever here. Untapable has been the brightest and most consistent this year, with only a loss vs the boys in the Haskell as a blemish. Close Hatches was right alongside until that mysterious clunker at Keeneland, but she ran fine on this track last year and as the most accomplished in the group needs to be respected. Iotapa looks like a horse for the course, with a great record at Santa Anita and a performance there which would win this. And I can't ignore the efforts that Belle Gallantey has put in this year, she'll have no trouble with the distance and has had some past success on the west coast. I don't see a pace meltdown here, I'm not sure it's even possible on this track at this point. 3,4,10,11

50 cent P4 - 1,4,5,7 / 1 / 2,3,4,5,6,11,13,14 / 3,4,10,11 $64. Hope to catch a couple of prices around Goldencents to boost the payout.
 
Pick 5:

Race 1: 4,6,8,11,12,13
Race 2: 3,5,7,9
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 1,2,4,6,8,10,11
Race 5: 2,3,7,9,11

Good luck boys
 
Wish we had in-race wagering in the states, Cary Street was a slam dunk after about a 1/4 mile.
 
As someone who was on the 5 I knew I was fucked when I saw 23.2.... horse may not have been the best but had the best trip.
 
Race 3 should give us a good indication on how the track is playing today. The 1 and 5 are the early speed and are probably the fourth and fifth best horses in the race. Lets see how long they can carry their speed.
 
#4 stalked fairly close, within about 2 lengths of a three horse vanguard. The second and third choices were 4-5 lengths back and were unable to catch the two front-runners that hung on for place and show, including a 42-1 shot. Pretty similar to the way this track has played all meet.
 
Pick 4

Race 3: 4
Race 4: 124681011
Race 5: 23791112
Race 6: 13456781011
$189

Race 3: 14579
Race 4: 11
Race 5: 23791112
Race 6: 13456781011
$135
 
Fishing expedition here, I think the 6 and 11 hit the board, so to create value I'm keying them in superfectas Win-Place and Win-Show with the 1-2-8-10 in the Place or Show spot and the longshots 5 & 9 in fourth.

So its: 6,11/6,11/1,2,8,10/5,9 and 6,11/1,2,8,10/6,11/5,9. $1.60 each per the dime rate.

I'll play 5 & 9 for show to cover a better than expected run from either.
 
Nice hit, I didn't see Chitu as his workouts slower than the 2 and 7 also Rosario doesn't often ride for Baffert.
 
Place pays 5-2 odds. Thanks. Chitu was about my 4th choice. Never thought much of the 12, so the exotics would've eluded me.
 
I gave out the winning pick 5 ticket in my thread, but didn't play it myself. It paid $7,790.

COMPLETELY SICK TO MY STOMACH RIGHT NOW.
 
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