Bowl Write-ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Well, I figure I'll start the Bowl writeups now even though we still have the Army/Navy game.

I've got a bet on Navy at +7(-115), but that's not available anymore so I'm not going to make that an "official" writeup, but I'll give some thoughts on why I went in that direction.

I'd definitely want 7 for a full unit, but I think this game, like usual will go down to the wire. Navy has had a couple weeks to get ready for this while Army had to play in the AAC title game last week(even though they weren't really exerted by Tulane's effort). It appears that Blake Horvath is back to good health for this one, but even if he wasn't, Braxton Woodson showed that he can be effective against a pretty good run defense in East Carolina in the last game of the year. Horvath definitely is a difference maker on offense for the Mids though, so his return will definitely be a positive. For much of the year, Navy looked shaky on defense, but they improved pretty drastically late in the year. None of their last 4 opponents topped 357 yards on offense, and that includes Tulane and East Carolina, who had been on a tear in the weeks prior to their game against Navy. They held the South Florida rush offense to only 60 yards on 25 attempts, and the Bulls rush offense ranked 30th in the country. Obviously, stopping the run will be vital in this game, like it is every year, and both Army and Navy have been up to that task. No matter what other things have transpired over the years, these teams know how to stop each other, even if the offenses have some modifications. Effort will never be an issue, and this Navy offense under Horvath has shown that they can throw the ball effectively if they fall behind, and I don't expect that they'll have to because these games generally stay close throughout. I think Army is certainly the better of these two teams, but there have been much wider deltas between these teams in which the games were still decided on the last play. At 3 or even maybe 4 I don't know that I would be taking in this situation, but at 7, I felt it was worth a unit. Navy can definitely win the game, and 7 points is a steep hill to climb for any favorite in this series.

Bowl season is upon us, and that has always been a happy occurrence for me because I've always loved to analyze and bet on bowl games, going all the way back to my teenage/high school days. It's nowhere near as fun as it used to be because there's nothing straight forward about the process now. Opt outs and transfers have made trying to decipher intentions and motivation almost impossible, and it's becoming harder and harder to even have good info on who is actually going to play. I could drone on for another 3000 words about my thoughts on 4 time transfers, bowl opt outs by guys who are unlikely to be drafted, etc, but I don't have the resolve to write those things and I'm sure nobody has the desire to read it. But I will make a few points.

Most, if not all talking heads call bowl games not involved with the playoff "meaningless". Ok fine. They've been determined by very smart and virtuous people to be that. But it wasn't always that way. When did they become "meaningless"? I guess it goes back to the 2016 season when Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette became the first players to ever opt out of a bowl. Prior to that, not one player in the hundreds of bowls before that, ever opted out of playing for any non-injury reason. No one called them meaningless then. But now? It's a fact that nobody questions. One guy said it about 8 years ago, then another guy agreed, then anyone who criticized an opt out or challenged the narrative were vilified, and now we're left with whatever this bowl season is.

Also, I know I'm a dunce who's stuck in the past, but are we sure sitting out of bowl games is the "right" move for players about to embark on an NFL attempt? Even if you look at it in a vaccum of the only thing that should matter to any person is their future earning potential, that money is the only route to true happiness or contentment, is sitting out the right decision? The fear, or drawback to playing is clearly injury. Players are afraid they'll get seriously injured and it will "affect their draft status". That's true, it's a possibility, but how many players have met that fate? Out of the thousands and thousands of players that have played in bowl games with pro futures, I can think of 2 that had a major injury. Jalen Smith from Notre Dame and Jake Butt from Michigan. That's it. (If I'm missing any additional examples, please let me know, but there aren't many). Now compare that to the thousands that made major rises up draft boards because they played great against great competition in a bowl game. If you use the logic of fear of injury, why would any kid play in the senior bowl? Why would they play during the regular season in an FCS game their team in which their team is favored by 42 points? To sum up, in my opinion, these kids are passing on opportunities for great memories, great times with their teammates and chances to enhance their draft profile because of a miniscule chance they might get hurt. And NOW HANDICAPPING GAMES IS HARDER AND I AM CRYING ABOUT IT!

Ok, as for the bowls: Last year I had at least a couple sentence write up on every bowl and then numbered the ones I played and would recommend. I took most of next week off, so I think I'll have time to do that again this year, but it's a fool's errand sometimes to go too early on these games because we never really know who's going to play and who won't until close to game time. If it looks like I'd be on a side regardless of potential surprises, I'll just go ahead and write them up. If I'm staying away I'll let you know why I am. It's been uneven for me the last few years in bowls. I'm somewhere around 10 games over .500 over the past few years. About the same as my coin flip record in the regular seasons. In my youth I was good at this, I swear!!


2024 Bowls:

Memphis -4.5 WIN
UNLV -3 WIN
SHSU +7 WIN
Notre Dame -7 WIN
Penn State -8.5 WIN
Texas -12.5 WIN
Tennessee +7.5 LOSS
Toledo +7 WIN
Bowling Green -7 LOSS
Navy +3 WIN
Texas Tech +1.5 LOSS
USC +4.5 WIN
Boston College +4 LOSS
East Carolina +7 WIN
Colorado -3 LOSS
Iowa +3
Alabama -12.5
Baylor -3.5
South Carolina -9.5
 
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Saturday. Salute to Veterans Bowl(??) No play here.

Honestly, I thought this might have been a HBCU game because it's so close to the end of the season, but no, it's an actual bowl between FBS squads. South Alabama is favored by 9 over Western Michigan. This is a rare one where both coaches are sill around and I think both starting QBs will be playing. Gio Lopez from South Alabama has been hurt, but reports are he'll play, but who can really trust that? If he did play, I would lean to the Jags because Western Michigan's defense has been bad all year, but the line has reached 9 and Western Michigan can run the ball a little bit, so I wouldn't want to lay that much. Sun Belt is a better league than the MAC so gun to head I would lay it, but in normal circumstances I would want 7 or less so it's a pass for me.
 
Tuesday December 17 --- Frisco Bowl

1. Memphis -4.5 v West Virginia: This is the Frisco Bowl in Frisco Texas. First of all, even if West Virginia wasn't without a coach, I'd be leaning Memphis here. But they are on an interim, and that has not boded well(can I use that in past tense?) for teams in recent years. I'm a little surprised that West Virginia hasn't lost much in the portal. Only one starter of note is leaving but that's their top guy at LB Josiah Trotter. They could lose some other guys, but nothing has been announced yet and Memphis looks to be intact at least from what I've seen. Even if things were undisturbed from the end of the season, I'd like Memphis. AAC schools are always jacked up to play P4 schools, regardless of who it is, so there's some motivation involved. Also, although I'm not a big fan of Ryan Silverfield, but in his 3 bowl games since he's taken over as the head coach, the Tigers have covered all 3 of them. Also, the Tigers match up great with West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been completely helpless on defense all year, especially in the passing game. They can't cover, as they rank 131st in yards per pass attempt against, and they can't rush the passer, ranking 90th in sack rate. Seth Henigan didn't have a great year this year, but there is a ton of passing success in his past, and WV might be worst pass defense Memphis has faced all year(and in the American, that's saying something.) The Mountaineers weren't great overall on defense, so stopping the run was no picnic either, and Memphis was 22nd in yards per rush attempt. They also thrive on 3rd down, and the Mountaineers can't get off the field(127th). Defensively, Memphis is above average against the run, and regardless of who is in there at QB for WV, they like to run the ball first and foremost. I actually give Memphis the edge in that matchup. In y opinion. Memphis has some pretty strong fundamental advantages, and I think they'll have the edge in motivation as well. I got 2 about 10 days go, but I'd still feel comfortable laying the 4.5 which is where it sits now.
 
Boca Raton Bowl: WKU is a 7.5 point dog against James Madison in this one. I was close to pulling the trigger and taking the points with the Hilltoppers, but their weak rush defense is keeping me off it. Like most of these early bowls, there's a ton of uncertainty as to who will be playing. Half of WKU's team is in the portal, but that happened last year and it appears that Tyson Helton encourages his guys to test the waters in the portal and then come back if it makes sense. Many of their players entered the portal last year and then played. This year that appears to be the case again, and it is definitely true with QB Caden Veltkamp, who declared for the portal but will play. He's been a pretty resourceful player and led their huge comeback last year. As for JMU, they don't have much in the portal, but they are hard to trust. There were several times this year where the Dukes looked like blowout winners on paper only to lay an egg and lose to inferior squads. If I went strictly by numbers, JMU would be the obvious side because they appear to have the edge in almost all of the categories I pay attention to. However, as I mentioned they've found ways to play down to their competition and Tyson Helton has a history of doing the opposite for WKU. He's 3-0 the past 3 years in bowls and covers regularly as a dog. He's 15-4 ATS as a single digit dog since he got to WKU. Ultimately however, there's so much uncertainty in who is going to play for the Hilltoppers that I can't recommend a play on them. I'm even less inclined to lay a TD+ number with this James Madison team. It's a pass with a lean toward WKU +7.5 for me.
 
The total has dropped here from 52* to 50 on my site.

I see there's a chance of rain, but I don't think that's the reason behind it...
 
Wrote this up last night at -2.5 but forgot to post apparently. Now you can't find 2.5 anywhere that I can see, so it's 3 now.


2. LA BOWL: UNLV -3 v Cal (BR): When I originally looked at this one, I was leaning Cal because Barry Odom left for Purdue and Cal has continuity with head coach Justin Wilcox. Usually you want to avoid the interims, but in this case, I have a hard time coming up with a case for Cal. First of all, when I liked Cal I assumed Fernando Mendoza would be playing QB for the Bears. He isn't, and the backup Chandler Rogers is injured as well. There's a chance he could play, but even if he does, the offense under him is nothing you would want to be entrusting your money in. In his start in the finale, when Mendoza came down with a late "illness", Rogers stepped in against an SMU team that had already secured a spot in the ACC title game and did absolutely nothing. Cal managed only 254 yards and most of those came late in a 38-6 loss. If he can't go, former Ohio QB CJ Harris or a true freshman will get the nod. UNLV will be missing Odom and OC Brennan Marion, but they appear to have some resolve, as many leaders indicated how important getting an 11th win would be for the program. LB Jackson Woodard is playing and it looks like S Jordan Catalon will too. QB Hajh Malik Williams is by all accounts playing, and we'll see about Ricky White, although playmaker Jacob DeJesus will be playing. UNLV can be run on, but it's unlikely Cal can take advantage. They have some good talents at RB, but they simply can't block anyone. I think UNLV is going to shut down that Cal offense, as the QB situation is completely settled for the Rebs so they should be equipped to put some points up. I think you'll have some motivated Rebels in this one, and I'll be very surprised if Cal can be effective on offense. We probably won't know about Ricky White or Catalon's availability until right before the game, but even without them I like UNLV's chances here.
 
3. New Orleans Bowl: Sam Houston +7(-121) v Georgia Southern (BR): This is another game in which I'm going to buck the trend and take the team playing under an interim coach. Georgia Southern over the past few years under Clay Helton has been a team that kind of outplays it's numbers, but that's especially true when they are lined as a dog. This year's team played very well as a dog, beating James Madison, Marshall and South Alabama as dogs despite looking like the clearly inferior team on paper. They don't do anything well on offense on a per play basis, but they do convert 3rd downs. On defense, their numbers are putrid, but they seem to catch teams on days where they don't execute. It's hard to put your finger on. When favored, however, they revert to what their numbers say, and in this situation, I think we'll see the same thing. This number is as much as they've been favored all year, and in that game (Troy -7) they lost outright 28-20 and got outgained 442-246. In another game they were favored, they were run out of the stadium by Old Dominion 47-19, giving up 500+ yards in the process. SHSU coach KC Keeler has left for Temple(??), and everyone(and when I say everyone, I mean everyone) is in the portal for SHSU, but these teams that just shepherded a move to FBS have a different outlook on bowl games, and as a result, most of the players in the portal have already announced that they are playing. As of now, QB Hunter Watson is not in the portal, so we can assume he's in, and very few if any SHSU guys have committed to other programs yet. The staff other than Keeler are in the process of moving on,(looks like SHSU hired Phil Longo as HC), but they've all committed to staying on, and this bowl is close enough to the end of the season that I don't think there's much of a drop-off in staff attention then those that play in late December. Georgia Southern's defense has been atrocious all year, overall, against the run, on 3rd down, you name it. The SHSU defense in my opinion also has an edge over Helton's quick passing offense, as they have not given up much in the passing game all year (4th in yards per pass attempt against) and the Eagles offense is not superior to the squads the Kats have faced this year for the most part. If we see an exodus of players sitting out, I could have egg on my face, but if that was going to happen, SHSU would have nobody to actually field a team and would have backed out like Marshall did. Since we can assume most of the players intact for SHSU, I think they're the better team, so It's especially attractive to take the BearKats as a dog, as Helton has proven pretty inept in the favorite's role this year. I should also point out that Helton has never covered a bowl game as a head coach. He was 0-4 at USC, including a couple horrific performances (Iowa blew them out in the '19 Holiday Bowl and they ;aid down for Ohio State in the 17 Cotton Bowl), and he's 0-2 against a couple of MAC squads since he's been at GA Southern. Last year they barely showed up against Ohio, as it was 27-0 after the first drive of the second half in a game he was favored. Points make a lot of sense here. Sorry for the length in this one.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. New Orleans Bowl: Sam Houston +7(-121) v Georgia Southern (BR): This is another game in which I'm going to buck the trend and take the team playing under an interim coach. Georgia Southern over the past few years under Clay Helton has been a team that kind of outplays it's numbers, but that's especially true when they are lined as a dog. This year's team played very well as a dog, beating James Madison, Marshall and South Alabama as dogs despite looking like the clearly inferior team on paper. They don't do anything well on offense on a per play basis, but they do convert 3rd downs. On defense, their numbers are putrid, but they seem to catch teams on days where they don't execute. It's hard to put your finger on. When favored, however, they revert to what their numbers say, and in this situation, I think we'll see the same thing. This number is as much as they've been favored all year, and in that game (Troy -7) they lost outright 28-20 and got outgained 442-246. In another game they were favored, they were run out of the stadium by Old Dominion 47-19, giving up 500+ yards in the process. SHSU coach KC Keeler has left for Temple(??), and everyone(and when I say everyone, I mean everyone) is in the portal for SHSU, but these teams that just shepherded a move to FBS have a different outlook on bowl games, and as a result, most of the players in the portal have already announced that they are playing. As of now, QB Hunter Watson is not in the portal, so we can assume he's in, and very few if any SHSU guys have committed to other programs yet. The staff other than Keeler are in the process of moving on,(looks like SHSU hired Phil Longo as HC), but they've all committed to staying on, and this bowl is close enough to the end of the season that I don't think there's much of a drop-off in staff attention then those that play in late December. Georgia Southern's defense has been atrocious all year, overall, against the run, on 3rd down, you name it. The SHSU defense in my opinion also has an edge over Helton's quick passing offense, as they have not given up much in the passing game all year (4th in yards per pass attempt against) and the Eagles offense is not superior to the squads the Kats have faced this year for the most part. If we see an exodus of players sitting out, I could have egg on my face, but if that was going to happen, SHSU would have nobody to actually field a team and would have backed out like Marshall did. Since we can assume most of the players intact for SHSU, I think they're the better team, so It's especially attractive to take the BearKats as a dog, as Helton has proven pretty inept in the favorite's role this year. I should also point out that Helton has never covered a bowl game as a head coach. He was 0-4 at USC, including a couple horrific performances (Iowa blew them out in the '19 Holiday Bowl and they ;aid down for Ohio State in the 17 Cotton Bowl), and he's 0-2 against a couple of MAC squads since he's been at GA Southern. Last year they barely showed up against Ohio, as it was 27-0 after the first drive of the second half in a game he was favored. Points make a lot of sense here. Sorry for the length in this one.
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Love this one. Think it should be closer to a PK. Will be on Bearkats ML too
 
Assuming Rebs players didn’t leave with coach and are playing I don’t really see any other way to go. I didn’t realize the qb situation cal’s last game vs smu, was all giddy bout getting 13 points until the game started and I realized cal didn’t have a freaking qb! They couldn’t move the ball at all, Wilcox with extra time I do worry he figures out a defensive scheme to ugly this up but end the day don’t think they can completely stop the Rebs offense and just not sure if they can score without a passing threat?

Btw good job getting good enough line on Memphis. Sometimes that shit really matters!
 
2daBank said:
Assuming Rebs players didn’t leave with coach and are playing I don’t really see any other way to go. I didn’t realize the qb situation cal’s last game vs smu, was all giddy bout getting 13 points until the game started and I realized cal didn’t have a freaking qb! They couldn’t move the ball at all, Wilcox with extra time I do worry he figures out a defensive scheme to ugly this up but end the day don’t think they can completely stop the Rebs offense and just not sure if they can score without a passing threat?

Btw good job getting good enough line on Memphis. Sometimes that shit really matters!
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I’m on the under (appears everyone else too with the market move today)
 
Ryno14 said:
I’m on the under (appears everyone else too with the market move today)
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Makes sense. Cal only path here is to ugly this shit up. Always have respected Wilcox defensive chops, Rebs have some exciting players on offense but with extra time to prepare I wouldn’t say the system they run is incredibly difficult to stop. Make sure to hold the edge so the qb can’t pull the ball and take off, be stout in middle against the rb, and prob most important take away those rpo slants Rebs love to run to that uber talented wr (white I think), he can take one of those to the house in a hurry but on the flip side if you drop a defender on whichever side the field he on you can basically take that slant away where he prob has gained at least 60% his yards. Cal offense will have to establish a run game and try to shorten game, it’s possible but tough if you don’t have a qb that can extend drives. Wow, 51 to 45, that a pretty big move, I assume the qb news was known when opening line came out so don’t think that the reason. Are all the key Rebs offensive guys gonna play? I might think bout taking a shot playing a few unders depending where numbers are, I havnt looked yet.
 
2daBank said:
Assuming Rebs players didn’t leave with coach and are playing I don’t really see any other way to go. I didn’t realize the qb situation cal’s last game vs smu, was all giddy bout getting 13 points until the game started and I realized cal didn’t have a freaking qb! They couldn’t move the ball at all, Wilcox with extra time I do worry he figures out a defensive scheme to ugly this up but end the day don’t think they can completely stop the Rebs offense and just not sure if they can score without a passing threat?

Btw good job getting good enough line on Memphis. Sometimes that shit really matters!
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It was a terrible line, LOL, but good enough. I actually had +2 in my pocket from right after the lines came out, but for writeup purposes I try to see if I can still make a case at the current line. It was closer than I thought it would be.

I blindly tossed a few bucks on some games to fade the interims, including Cal -4(!!!) when I assumed Mendoza was playing and there would be a mass exodus at UNLV. Clearly that was a knee-jerk. It might end up being correct, but I've burned that ticket. Sometimes my "projection" doesn't work out. So much so that I'm willing to go a full seven points the other way only a handful of days later. It's evidence of a lot of things, but #1 is this clown is shall we say, inefficient with his bankroll. :)
 
Br@ssknux said:
It was a terrible line, LOL, but good enough. I actually had +2 in my pocket from right after the lines came out, but for writeup purposes I try to see if I can still make a case at the current line. It was closer than I thought it would be.

I blindly tossed a few bucks on some games to fade the interims, including Cal -4(!!!) when I assumed Mendoza was playing and there would be a mass exodus at UNLV. Clearly that was a knee-jerk. It might end up being correct, but I've burned that ticket. Sometimes my "projection" doesn't work out. So much so that I'm willing to go a full seven points the other way only a handful of days later. It's evidence of a lot of things, but #1 is this clown is shall we say, inefficient with his bankroll. :)
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I took it up the arse betting cal in last week
+13 vs smu, I looked at line and was like “ya’ll on crack”, maybe if I was on less drugs I woulda realized Mendoza was out and they couldn’t do jack shit! I dunno if they even have a guy who can just make a few simple passes to keep run game on schedule? If they do I think they could ugly this bitch up. I think Wilcox will design a pretty good defense w extra time vs Rebs, it not a super tough offense to figure out, they just have a couple elite playmakers but the offense they run I think there a world cal holds them in check. I played some Malik Williams under 65 rushing (or something close to that) and dabbled on white under 75 rec yards. If cal d can be disciplined , keep the edges set against zone read and simply drop a guy back right into that window they like to throw that rpo slant to white I think they can make it a game, I just know Rebs gonna score a few times and short of special teams and d I just dunno how cal scores points?
 
FYI, not gonna write it up because who knows what the line is going to get to, but I bet Syracuse -10.5 in their bowl against Washington State a few days ago. Now that Dickert is gone to Wake Forest, that WAZZOU program is about to get purged. Not sure what the line is now.
 
2daBank said:
I took it up the arse betting cal in last week
+13 vs smu, I looked at line and was like “ya’ll on crack”, maybe if I was on less drugs I woulda realized Mendoza was out and they couldn’t do jack shit! I dunno if they even have a guy who can just make a few simple passes to keep run game on schedule? If they do I think they could ugly this bitch up. I think Wilcox will design a pretty good defense w extra time vs Rebs, it not a super tough offense to figure out, they just have a couple elite playmakers but the offense they run I think there a world cal holds them in check. I played some Malik Williams under 65 rushing (or something close to that) and dabbled on white under 75 rec yards. If cal d can be disciplined , keep the edges set against zone read and simply drop a guy back right into that window they like to throw that rpo slant to white I think they can make it a game, I just know Rebs gonna score a few times and short of special teams and d I just dunno how cal scores points?
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You wouldn't have known Mendoza was out in that SMU game because I don't think anyone knew more than a few minutes before kick. I can say that because I wrote that game up and I certainly had no clue about it. It was all a moot point as soon as Rogers trotted out there, and he got hurt too.
 
Friday-Cure Bowl: Jax State vs Ohio: Ohio is about a 4-5 point favorite here, and I don't have a play. Both coaches are gone. I don't know anything about the Brian Smith guy from Ohio, but Rod Smith is RichRod's long time OC, and he's a specialist in the run game. Tons of guys in the portal for Jax State, while none are in so far for Ohio, but there's a chance some of the Gamecocks play. There's no telling which ones, and there's been some really good guys in the portal for Jax State, so I hesitate to back them and I have not been a big fan of ohio's QB Parker Navarro although he played great against a very good Miami(OH) defense last week. Too much uncertainty here for a play IMO.
 
I had a pretty heavy lean to Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl against Florida, but that was when the line was approaching 15. It's dipped below 13 now. so I won't be on it. I like Tulane because their defense has been very solid all year, and I'm a fan of Jon Sumrall to get his guys ready. However, I don't know how much backup QB Ty Thompson(who has one foot in the transfer portal and one in bowl prep) can throw the ball, but I suspect not much. If Florida shores up things in their run defense, which seems possible, I don't know that Tulane will be able to throw the ball at all effectively. Florida also seems to be more of a dog player's team this year as well. They were solid as hunter, not hunted. For all these reasons, I'm going to stay away.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I had a pretty heavy lean to Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl against Florida, but that was when the line was approaching 15. It's dipped below 13 now. so I won't be on it. I like Tulane because their defense has been very solid all year, and I'm a fan of Jon Sumrall to get his guys ready. However, I don't know how much backup QB Ty Thompson(who has one foot in the transfer portal and one in bowl prep) can throw the ball, but I suspect not much. If Florida shores up things in their run defense, which seems possible, I don't know that Tulane will be able to throw the ball at all effectively. Florida also seems to be more of a dog player's team this year as well. They were solid as hunter, not hunted. For all these reasons, I'm going to stay away.
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Agree and I think your assumption is correct. Ty can’t throw. Or at least hasn’t. Ever.

Not sure why it dipped to 12. I’d have to look at the portal again, did Billy lose a lot? I wanna say Tulane got blitzed and lost a lot of weapons.

I’d lay the points gun to head if I get Lagway the whole way
 
The portal #s for Florida look a little heavy, that's the only explanation.

I love Summral but that almost disinterested performance against Army, in a league championship game, was a big head scratcher.

Two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions as they play this game. Napier given some new life and, with Lagway back, capitalized down the stretch in beating LSU and Ole Miss.

Feels like a 30-13 type game.
 
twinkie13 said:
Agree and I think your assumption is correct. Ty can’t throw. Or at least hasn’t. Ever.

Not sure why it dipped to 12. I’d have to look at the portal again, did Billy lose a lot? I wanna say Tulane got blitzed and lost a lot of weapons.

I’d lay the points gun to head if I get Lagway the whole way
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It's hard to say where that movement is coming from because I'm not seeing any additional losses for Florida. Maybe a group release? It's shaded to Tulane at 12 now, might get to 11.5. I'm like you...if it keeps going down I might lay the points too. Also don't love how Tulane's pass D(which was great) was much less effective against the teams that can throw, and there were only really 2 of them(UNT and Memphis). Lagway could have success deep because it looks like Badger is playing and Lagway is 2023 Milroe-like with his deep ball ability.
 
I'm gonna have sides on all 4 of the playoff games because, what kind of pussy would beg off the first ever opening round playoff games. Not me! Even if there is some forced logic! (Hopefully not though!)

Playoff #1. Indiana @ Notre Dame: Both of these teams leave a lot to be desired when it comes to their schedules. There's a lot of complaining in SEC country, especially about Indiana, and I'd agree that most if not all of the top 6 in the SEC would probably be 11-1 if they had Indiana's schedule. But like I said before, these kind of things have a very easy fix. Reduce the number of SEC conference games to 7 and use the non-conference to eliminate all competition for these spots. Ole Miss, schedule Indiana and Clemson. Georgia, schedule Miami and Penn State. Alabama, schedule Arizona State and Boise and maybe throw in Memphis or Tulane. Tennessee, schedule Notre Dame and Iowa State. LSU plays Michigan and Utah, and so on. Ohio State has a .01% chance of winning because of their having the refs in their pocket so don't play them Obviously, without question the SEC will destroy all of these pretenders head to head, so nobody will have an argument against 8 SEC teams in the playoff! ok moving on.....as I was saying.

4. @Notre Dame -7(-115) v Indiana(BR): I honestly assumed I'd be on the other side, but what can I tell you? Both teams played weak schedules. How weak? Well, as for Indiana, (and I have been pro Indiana all year) they have been lights out on defense. However, out of the 12 games they played only 2 of their opponents ranked in the top 80 of offenses by the measure of yards per play against FBS opponents. Those teams were Washington(52) and Ohio State(5). The third best offense they played by that measure was Florida International(80). Next was Charlotte(82). I think you get the picture. Their run defense has been great, but we only can reasonably confirm that because they did a rather satisfying job of stopping the OSU run game, if you throw out a couple long runs. They did a GREAT job of shutting down those other offenses, but so did EVERY OTHER DEFENSE that those teams played. So really, even after 12 games, we still don't conclusively know just how strong that IU defense is. Notre Dame also played a weak schedule of offenses, but at least 6 of their opponents ranked in the top 50, so we have a pretty good handle on what Al Golden can do. On the other side of the ball, both of these offenses played some pretty good defenses, but in Indiana's case, in my opinion, the main reason they were so good on offense was Kurtis Rourke's remarkable performance in the passing game. The Hoosiers ended up 72nd in yards per carry, so I think there's very little chance ND has much of an issue containing their run game. The pass game could be another story though, because Rourke was as good as any QB in the country this year. He completed 70% of his passes, averaged almost 10 yards per attempt and ended up with a 27/4 ratio. He also passed the eyeball test, because he very seldom looked anything other than in total control. But what happened when he faced the best defenses on the schedule, or the two that compare to Notre Dame? Well...it was a different story. Indiana simply could not throw the ball against Ohio State because their line couldn't protect him. He was sacked 5 times and was running for his life and throwing the ball away pretty much every drive after the opening TD drive. It wasn't as bad in Bloomington against Michigan, but he was sacked 4 times in that one and was hurried into his only really bad INT of the year. In those two games, Rourke was sacked nine times and IU sacked the opponent zero. I think the ND defensive line vs the Indiana OL is where this game will be decided, with the inverse of the two teams being the second most important matchup. In both cases, I suspect ND will have the edge. Jeremiyah Love Jadarian Price and Riley Leonard are all elite runners. If the Hoosiers run defense can make Leonard throw it from behind the sticks, they will deserve a ton of credit, but I am skeptical that they can do it. IU will also have to win all of the intangibles, including special teams and turnovers, and they might be able to do it. ND's kicking game has been shaky, so they have that going for them, but they absolutely stepped on their dicks on special teams in the biggest game of the year, and Notre Dame is 3rd in the country in turnover margin, one of the few teams in the country better than Indiana. I think that tells us that IU having a clear edge in those categories is highly unlikely. I came into this handicap looking for reasons to back the dog and expected to find them, but I've ended up on the other side. I think Indiana will start strong and will have a great resolve, but by the end of the game, I think they'll run out of gas and realize that they maxed out in this round. I see this going similarly to the Ohio State game for them, but in a less extreme result. Something like 30-14.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I'm gonna have sides on all 4 of the playoff games because, what kind of pussy would beg off the first ever opening round playoff games. Not me! Even if there is some forced logic! (Hopefully not though!)

Playoff #1. Indiana @ Notre Dame: Both of these teams leave a lot to be desired when it comes to their schedules. There's a lot of complaining in SEC country, especially about Indiana, and I'd agree that most if not all of the top 6 in the SEC would probably be 11-1 if they had Indiana's schedule. But like I said before, these kind of things have a very easy fix. Reduce the number of SEC conference games to 7 and use the non-conference to eliminate all competition for these spots. Ole Miss, schedule Indiana and Clemson. Georgia, schedule Miami and Penn State. Alabama, schedule Arizona State and Boise and maybe throw in Memphis or Tulane. Tennessee, schedule Notre Dame and Iowa State. LSU plays Michigan and Utah, and so on. Ohio State has a .01% chance of winning because of their having the refs in their pocket so don't play them Obviously, without question the SEC will destroy all of these pretenders head to head, so nobody will have an argument against 8 SEC teams in the playoff! ok moving on.....as I was saying.

4. @Notre Dame -7(-115) v Indiana(BR): I honestly assumed I'd be on the other side, but what can I tell you? Both teams played weak schedules. How weak? Well, as for Indiana, (and I have been pro Indiana all year) they have been lights out on defense. However, out of the 12 games they played only 2 of their opponents ranked in the top 80 of offenses by the measure of yards per play against FBS opponents. Those teams were Washington(52) and Ohio State(5). The third best offense they played by that measure was Florida International(80). Next was Charlotte(82). I think you get the picture. Their run defense has been great, but we only can reasonably confirm that because they did a rather satisfying job of stopping the OSU run game, if you throw out a couple long runs. They did a GREAT job of shutting down those other offenses, but so did EVERY OTHER DEFENSE that those teams played. So really, even after 12 games, we still don't conclusively know just how strong that IU defense is. Notre Dame also played a weak schedule of offenses, but at least 6 of their opponents ranked in the top 50, so we have a pretty good handle on what Al Golden can do. On the other side of the ball, both of these offenses played some pretty good defenses, but in Indiana's case, in my opinion, the main reason they were so good on offense was Kurtis Rourke's remarkable performance in the passing game. The Hoosiers ended up 72nd in yards per carry, so I think there's very little chance ND has much of an issue containing their run game. The pass game could be another story though, because Rourke was as good as any QB in the country this year. He completed 70% of his passes, averaged almost 10 yards per attempt and ended up with a 27/4 ratio. He also passed the eyeball test, because he very seldom looked anything other than in total control. But what happened when he faced the best defenses on the schedule, or the two that compare to Notre Dame? Well...it was a different story. Indiana simply could not throw the ball against Ohio State because their line couldn't protect him. He was sacked 5 times and was running for his life and throwing the ball away pretty much every drive after the opening TD drive. It wasn't as bad in Bloomington against Michigan, but he was sacked 4 times in that one and was hurried into his only really bad INT of the year. In those two games, Rourke was sacked nine times and IU sacked the opponent zero. I think the ND defensive line vs the Indiana OL is where this game will be decided, with the inverse of the two teams being the second most important matchup. In both cases, I suspect ND will have the edge. Jeremiyah Love Jadarian Price and Riley Leonard are all elite runners. If the Hoosiers run defense can make Leonard throw it from behind the sticks, they will deserve a ton of credit, but I am skeptical that they can do it. IU will also have to win all of the intangibles, including special teams and turnovers, and they might be able to do it. ND's kicking game has been shaky, so they have that going for them, but they absolutely stepped on their dicks on special teams in the biggest game of the year, and Notre Dame is 3rd in the country in turnover margin, one of the few teams in the country better than Indiana. I think that tells us that IU having a clear edge in those categories is highly unlikely. I came into this handicap looking for reasons to back the dog and expected to find them, but I've ended up on the other side. I think Indiana will start strong and will have a great resolve, but by the end of the game, I think they'll run out of gas and realize that they maxed out in this round. I see this going similarly to the Ohio State game for them, but in a less extreme result. Something like 30-14.
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I been torn between laying points or just playing iu tt under 20.5, Irish only let 2 teams score more than that and think both those offenses were better. Iu was held under this twice ni coincidence by the 2 teams w elite level defenses that they played. I just can’t give them that much credit for hanging 40-50 spots on crappy teams. not sure I’m confident in Irish scoring but I do tend to agree their run game should have enough success to control the game.
 
5. Playoff #2: @Penn State -8.5 v SMU (BOL): This is probably the one of the 4 games that I have the least feel for, but I think the Nittany Lions will take care of business in a spread area that Franklin usually has very little problems with. I don't think SMU's offensive line is going to hold up against the PSU defensive line in this environment, which I think will leave things mostly on Breshard Smith to make do himself to get yards in the running game, which is ranked 70th in yards per attempt and certainly isn't the SMU forte. It'll also leave a lot on QB Kevin Jennings shoulders, who has been game, but I don't think the wide receiver depth for SMU is enough to hurt Penn State. I'd love to see what SMU could have done with RJ Maryland and Jake Bailey, who are both out for the year and are still #'s 1 and 2 in catches and yards even 4-5 weeks since they were lost. Defensively, SMU's profile is what you need against Penn State, and they did a great job against Phil Mafah and Clemson last time out, but we have to remember they lost that game to an inferior (at least to Penn State) Clemson squad, and Cade Klubnik was able to have success in the passing game in that one. I think Drew Allar is underrated. They don't ask him to do a ton, but he doesn't make mistakes, which means SMU will have to earn just about everything in this one. I have a lot of respect for them, but this is going to be a very tough environment out of their comfort zone. It's going to be cold. I can see them representing themselves very well in this one but still falling short of keeping it within double digits. The running backs and Tyler Warren are a load to handle, and I think they'll prove to be too much over time, similar to Indiana/ND. I don't love laying this, but I think it's a likely scenario that SMU ends up being a team that proved their worth by being there, while Penn State sees themselves as something more than a participant.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
5. Playoff #2: @Penn State -8.5 v SMU (BOL): This is probably the one of the 4 games that I have the least feel for, but I think the Nittany Lions will take care of business in a spread area that Franklin usually has very little problems with. I don't think SMU's offensive line is going to hold up against the PSU defensive line in this environment, which I think will leave things mostly on Breshard Smith to make do himself to get yards in the running game, which is ranked 70th in yards per attempt and certainly isn't the SMU forte. It'll also leave a lot on QB Kevin Jennings shoulders, who has been game, but I don't think the wide receiver depth for SMU is enough to hurt Penn State. I'd love to see what SMU could have done with RJ Maryland and Jake Bailey, who are both out for the year and are still #'s 1 and 2 in catches and yards even 4-5 weeks since they were lost. Defensively, SMU's profile is what you need against Penn State, and they did a great job against Phil Mafah and Clemson last time out, but we have to remember they lost that game to an inferior (at least to Penn State) Clemson squad, and Cade Klubnik was able to have success in the passing game in that one. I think Drew Allar is underrated. They don't ask him to do a ton, but he doesn't make mistakes, which means SMU will have to earn just about everything in this one. I have a lot of respect for them, but this is going to be a very tough environment out of their comfort zone. It's going to be cold. I can see them representing themselves very well in this one but still falling short of keeping it within double digits. The running backs and Tyler Warren are a load to handle, and I think they'll prove to be too much over time, similar to Indiana/ND. I don't love laying this, but I think it's a likely scenario that SMU ends up being a team that proved there worth by being there, while Penn State sees themselves as something more than a participant.
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They gift wrapped Penn st an easy Fuckin draw, get texas kids at home in the freezing cold then they get to play boise st? What a freaking joke that is, like Jeanty will run for over 150 on them! There no chance! This tourney was practically made for psu who never beats the top teams in own conf but still somehow finish ranked 5th or some crap, now I know this tourney was made for them giving them the easiest possible path. I had such high hopes for this 12 team playoff but then we get Boise and asu as 3 and 4, teams we all know would get beat by 10+ teams not even in the damn thing. The naysayers were right, I was wrong this round doesn’t even interest me, the only thing exciting bout next round is how easy if will be to fade boise and asu. While Ducks who were clearly the best team all year have to play the winner of Vols/osu, they essentially got punished for winning the big 10, something tells me had pen st beat them they still have the easy ass draw!!
 
After winning the conference championship the players for Ohio U found out their coach was leaving for Charlotte on the way home on the bus. Social media broke the news to the players and not the coach. The celebration was cut short because the head coach held exit meetings the very next morning. Yes, the players were pissed.

Yet, the players love the OC, interim coach, and all went together to throw support for him. That is how he got the job so quickly and why no player has entered the portal. They all want to play for this guy.

Not saying who wins, but I do believe Ohio U will be motivated to get a win for their new head coach.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
After winning the conference championship the players for Ohio U found out their coach was leaving for Charlotte on the way home on the bus. Social media broke the news to the players and not the coach. The celebration was cut short because the head coach held exit meetings the very next morning. Yes, the players were pissed.

Yet, the players love the OC, interim coach, and all went together to throw support for him. That is how he got the job so quickly and why no player has entered the portal. They all want to play for this guy.

Not saying who wins, but I do believe Ohio U will be motivated to get a win for their new head coach.
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Agreed.

The line jumped from -3 to -6, and I'm glad I took their team total over when it was 27*.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
After winning the conference championship the players for Ohio U found out their coach was leaving for Charlotte on the way home on the bus. Social media broke the news to the players and not the coach. The celebration was cut short because the head coach held exit meetings the very next morning. Yes, the players were pissed.

Yet, the players love the OC, interim coach, and all went together to throw support for him. That is how he got the job so quickly and why no player has entered the portal. They all want to play for this guy.

Not saying who wins, but I do believe Ohio U will be motivated to get a win for their new head coach.
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That's great info. Thanks very much Smallmouth.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
After winning the conference championship the players for Ohio U found out their coach was leaving for Charlotte on the way home on the bus. Social media broke the news to the players and not the coach. The celebration was cut short because the head coach held exit meetings the very next morning. Yes, the players were pissed.

Yet, the players love the OC, interim coach, and all went together to throw support for him. That is how he got the job so quickly and why no player has entered the portal. They all want to play for this guy.

Not saying who wins, but I do believe Ohio U will be motivated to get a win for their new head coach.
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Appreciate this post
 
6. Playoff #3: @Texas -12.5 v Clemson: This is another one that I am not rushing to the window to lay, but I committed to taking a stand on each game. Usually I need a pretty clear preference for a side o write it up, but I'm taking a 51% burden of proof to write up these playoff games, since it's my position that we MUST BE BETTING on them. I'm typically a dog player, but there's quite a bit that sends me over to the favorite side here even though Texas will have to win this game by 2 TDs to cover. There's hesitation here because a couple stalls in the red zone plus a Ewers bad pick or two could make this very hard to cover, but we have a few things I can't get past hat is completely erasing any desire I have to be on the Clemson side. First of all, Texas is going to dominate the lines of scrimmage in this game, on both sides. The Tigers currently sit at 76th in yards per rush allowed in the running game, and this was against a schedule that had an almost year long vacation from any teams that would strike fear in a championship level team's heart. Appy State, NC State, Stanford(??), Louisville, the Citadel, South Carolina, all of these teams managed good rushing days against Clemson, and only Louisville could be considered an above average FBS rushing squad. Texas hasn't been great running the ball this year, but they've been better lately since Wisner took over the lion's share of the carries. Defensively, Texas is almost impossible to run on, and Phil Mafah looks like he is not 100%, especially considering his performance against SMU. I don't think Clemson will be able to run on Texas, which will put a lot of pressure on Cade Klubnik. Klubnik has definitely improved a lot this year, and Wesco/Williams/Moore/Brinningstool give him some targets, but this will be the #1 pass defense in the country that he'll have to solve, and nobody has done it so far. The only team that managed more than 300 yards against Texas, and 90% of those yards came after the score was 42-0. I have a hard time thinking that Clemson is going to go on the road here and have success getting in the end zone against this defense. Clemson's defense isn't bad, but it's vulnerable. As I mentioned, they have been run on regularly, and some mediocre offenses(NC State, Pitt with Nate Yarnall), SMU) were able to move the ball on them. This team ranked 48th in yards per play, which isn't bad, but I don't think they'll be positioned to hold Texas down on their home field. In order to cover this, Texas will need to be kept in the mid to high 20's, and I don't see that happening. Texas had had a knack for letting inferior teams hang around with them(Vandy, Arkansas, A&M, etc) but it hasn't happened at home. I think the Longhorns take care of business against a Clemson team that a couple weeks ago didn't think they had a chance to be in this spot. I think they know that they're crashing a party they probably shouldn't be showing up to, and I think Texas will make that clear.
 
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7. Playoff #4 Tennessee +7.5(-115) @Ohio State(BOL): I've heard a few people say that Ohio State probably would have been better off playing this game on the road and I agree. This is not going to be a confident "we are here to watch our boys kick your asses" crowd. On the contrary, this is a crowd that already has their minds made up about Ryan Day. If the Buckeyes start fast and look good, they'll acquiesce and grudgingly put on a happy face, but if things start slow...yikes. That crowd will use that forum to make sure every decision maker at Ohio State knows how they feel, and it will not bode well for the Buckeyes. I am certainly not enamored with Nico Iamavalea and the Tennessee offense, that that defensive line is going to make things pretty tough for Ohio State, especially if Day and Chip Kelly don't embrace the finesse game and try to use their elite receivers/passing game and get rid of the ball quickly. They are not going to win a physical matchup with Tennessee's desfense, no matter how much Day wishes they could. The Vols are 4th in yards per play, 6th against the run, 15th against the pass and 9th on 3rd down. They get pressure on the QB constantly with Pearce and Josephs on the edges, so Will Howard is going to have to deal with it, and he is worst than most when pressured. Tennessee is going to have the same issues with the Ohio State defense, but I think they have a better chance of having some success with Dylan Sampson in the run game. I see this as a pretty evenly matched game with both defenses having the edge, so I'm inclined to take the 7.5, especially since this home field situation for Ohio State could get pretty toxic. Let's put it this way: I'd be much more inclined to take Ohio State in a pick or +1 situation in Knoxville than I am laying a decent number here.


This was bad. Way too much emphasis on the Michigan game when capping the effort for Ohio State. Kelly and Day were indeed smart enough to use the downfield passing game and not try to run it at Tennessee at the outset, and Tennessee proved they could not cover. I will say that the facemask penalty on Tennessee on the 3rd and long during the first drive really changed the game. Had that been a sack and subsequent punt, who knows. A couple plays later it was 7-0. Ultimately, Tennessee wasn't going to move it on OSU so it was probably a moot point.
 
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No official write up on this, but now that I was able to get Florida under 10 (-9.5), I took it. I like Tulane, but I don't know that they'll be able to throw it with Thompson, so that negates a weakness in the Florida defense. Also, with Badger in, Lagway will be dangerous passing it downfield and I think you have a solid SEC team who's on a roll with something to play for. Worth a few bucks now that the line has moved almost 6 points.
 
Monday

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Coastal v UTSA: No play here, the line is above 10 so I'm not interested. Coastal has no QBs left and UTSA has a bunch of guys out. The game is on Coastal's home field I think, but I'm not betting on a team with no QB and a bunch of other opt outs. UTSA is probably the right side because Traylor's a good coach and they have their QB and a few weapons, but I just don't want to bet this game.
 
Mate I love your writing. No need to make playoffs a thing, they're just bowl games

Rather read you write ups on a random Sun Belt team than what seems forced playoff games. Not sure I even watch it, no need to force wagers
 
KJ said:
Mate I love your writing. No need to make playoffs a thing, they're just bowl games

Rather read you write ups on a random Sun Belt team than what seems forced playoff games. Not sure I even watch it, no need to force wagers
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I hear ya KJ. Always glad to see you here.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
No official write up on this, but now that I was able to get Florida under 10 (-9.5), I took it. I like Tulane, but I don't know that they'll be able to throw it with Thompson, so that negates a weakness in the Florida defense. Also, with Badger in, Lagway will be dangerous passing it downfield and I think you have a solid SEC team who's on a roll with something to play for. Worth a few bucks now that the line has moved almost 6 points.
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I bet it at that number as well. It could lose, but I’d bet it again tomorrow
 
BOL Brass - Your writeup on Ind./ND really captured the way I feel about that game. I can't get past the advantage I think ND will have on the LOS in this one, plus home and colder weather potentially making it harder to throw. Have a great holiday!
 
Timh said:
BOL Brass - Your writeup on Ind./ND really captured the way I feel about that game. I can't get past the advantage I think ND will have on the LOS in this one, plus home and colder weather potentially making it harder to throw. Have a great holiday!
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Thanks Timmy! Glad to hear. Good luck to us!
 
In retrospect, in some ways, not seeing that Ohio State was going to pound the shit out of Tennessee was probably among the worst calls I've had all year. They stunk on the road all year other than the Vandy game, and they weren't even healthy. They, like all but about 4 or 5 teams this year, did not belong in a playoff. We have to find 12 teams now though, so it'll probably keep happening. I'll have to add a comment to that post because the logic was BAD.

Not bad on the rest of them though.
 
Monday night, Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Fresno v NIU (-3.5). I don't have much of an appetite to lay points with NIU, as they've been bad in that role. Having said that, I do see a pretty solid edge for the Huskies on paper, even if these teams were at full strength, which they aren't. Both starting QBs are in the portal. Hampton from NIU is already committed to Illinois. Keene from Fresno I have not seen, but neither is good, and both of these defenses figured to have a major edge over the respective offenses. Both teams also have several portal casualties on defense, but it looks to me that NIU wasn't hit quite as hard. Their defense was elite this year, and I doubt Fresno as constructed now will have much success against them. NIU with Holst at the controls won't look good either, but at least he's played some this year. Nether of the potential starters for Fresno Josh Wood or Jayden Mandel took more than a few snaps apiece, and this is not the kid of defense you want your maiden voyage to be against. If this wasn't more than a FG I'd probably have interest in NIU, but I can't recommend laying that much. Fresno is missing 5 starters in this one, but I suspect NIU is going to struggle moving it against them anyway. No play here but gun to head I'd lay it with NIU.
 
Hawaii Bowl, Christmas Eve. San Jose State (-3.5) v USF. I kind of wanted to find a way to back USF in this one, but I couldn't really pull it off. Both coaching staffs are returning intact so not much n th e way of portal losses or opt outs here, other than the massive loss of Nick Nash for SJSU. There's some talk that Byram Brown might be able to play in this one for USF, but I haven't seen it confirmed. The Bulls major strength is running the ball, so although Brown would help, they rely on the running game to win. SJSU was pretty good against the run this year, so this isn't a bad matchup for the Spartans. They actually held up well against Ashton Jeanty this year, so I think the #27 rush defense is legit. Both of these teams are horrendous at stopping the pass. and it's egregious for USF because they gave up gobs of yards through the air against EVERYONE. I'm talking UAB, FAU with Cam Fancher...EVERYONE. Even without Nick Nash, SJSU should be able to torch them as they ranked 30th in yards per pass attempt this year, and they have some pretty good receivers and Justin Lockhart should be able to settle into that #1 role. I just hesitate to lay this because USF's run offense can have a devastating effect on unsuspecting squads, and when that happens, USF can drop 60 on people. I certainly can't trust that USF pass defense against a competent air attack though, so It's a pass for me.
 
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