Bowl Trends

[RJ Esq]

2007-08 Bowl System Picks and Results

Navy +8' W
FAU -3 W
Southern Miss +11 W
New Mexico -3 W
BYU -6 L
Boise St +10' W
Purdue +8' W
Texas -1' W
BC -3' L
TCU -4 W
Oregon St -4' W
Wake -3 W
UCF -3 L
Penn St -5' W
Alabama -3' W
Cal -4 W
Georgia Tech -4 L
USF -6' L
Kentucky -3 W
Oklahoma St -4 W
Clemson -2' L
Tennessee -3' W
Mizzou -3 W
TT -6 L
Michigan +10 W
Illinois -13 L
Hawaii +9' L
OU -6' L
VT -3' L
Ball St +10 L
Tulsa -4' W
LSU -5 W

Results: 20-12 (+6.8 units at 1 unit per bet)

Breakdown the trends a little later, but clearly worked out great in the beginning of the year and did not do so hot in the January Bowls excluding the MNC.

 

[RJ Esq]

2006-07 Bowl Trend Play Results

NIU +12 L
BYU -3' W
Rice -5 L
USF -5' W
Utah -2' W
New Mexico -3 L
Arizona St +7' L
MTSU +8' L
UCLA -3' L
Oklahoma St -1' W
Cal -3 W
KSU +8' L
Kentucky +11' W
South Car -4' W
Minnesota +8 W
Oregon St -3' L
Purdue -2 L
Iowa +9 W
Navy +8 W
Va Tech -3 L
Miami -3' L
Tenn -3' L
Arkansas -2 L
Michigan -2' L
Auburn -2 W
Georgia Tech +9 W
Boise St +7' W
Wake Forest +10' L
Notre Dame +8' L
WMU +7' W
USM -6' W
Ohio St +7' L

Results: 15-17 (-3.7 units at 1 unit per play)

A little disagreement with Stacks' numbers but this is definitely a down year.

 

[RJ Esq]

Anyone know where to find point spreads for 2005 Bowls and earlier?

 

[RJ Esq]

2005-06 System Play Results

Toledo -3 W
Navy -2 W
BYU +8 W
Nevada -2' L
Clemson -3' L
BC -2' W
Utah +7' W
Virginia +7 W
UCLA -2' W
S. Car -3' L
Tulsa +7' W
TCU -2' W
TT -3 L
Florida pk W
Wisky +10 W
L-ville +8 L
Georgia -6 L
FSU +10 W
Texas +8 W

Results: 13-6 (+6.4 units at 1 unit each)

This is only a partial list off of my own records.

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake:

 

[trainwreck42]

It’s funny I see this thread back up as I ran across some notes I took back in 2006 on inexperienced QB’s starting in bowl games. I was trying to prove that the team is overvalued when facing an inexperienced backup QB, mostly because that QB has 3 weeks to prepare. The criteria I tried to come up with are that the QB is a first time starter that season. I found a few that did that but I also found some who had a couple starts early or later in the season. For record keeping purposes I’ll only use the first time start of that season.

2001 Sugar Bowl. Matt Mauck LSU(-2) vs Illinois 47-34. From what I remember he came in during the 2^nd half of the SEC title game.

2004 Sun Bowl . Sam Keller Arizona St (+8) vs Purdue 27-23. Keller replaced Andrew Walter

2005 Peach Bowl. Matt Flynn LSU (+7) vs Miami Fla 40-3. This was Flynn’s first start and I believe he replace JaMarcus Russell.

2005 Champs Sports Bowl. James Cox Colorado(+10.5) vs Clemson 10-19. Cox replaced Joel Klatt. He was replaced in the 1^st quarter of this game by Brian White. Both did not start all year.

2006 Gator Bowl. Taylor Bennett Georgia Tech(+10) vs West Virginia 35-38. Bennett replaced Reggie Ball so this on was a no brainer to bet on. GT actually led this game 35-17 in the 4^th quarter.

2007 Las Vegas Bowl. Mcleod Bethel-Thompson UCLA (+6.5) vs BYU 16-17. Bethel-Thompson replaced Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan. BYU blocked a 28 yard FG as time expired.

2007 Sun Bowl. Justin Roper Oregon(+6) vs South Florida 56-21. Roper replaced Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf. It should be noted that Roper played most of the Oregon St game but did not start.

Record 7-0 for 1^st time starting QB’s in bowl games since 2001. I have a couple others that I want to make note of that had a couple starts under their belt but from what I remembered these teams were still undervalued because of having an inexperienced QB.

2001 Sun Bowl Kyle Orton Purdue(+6.5) vs Washington St. 27-33. I believe this was Ortons 3^rd start that year. He started the final 2 games of the year vs Indiana and Notre Dame. Purdue lost both games. A note in this game Purdue was actually down to the WSU 22 when time expired.

2004 Alamo Bowl. Justin Zwick Ohio St.(+3.5) vs Okie State 33-7. I’m pretty sure Zwick had like 5 starts earlier in the year and was then replaced by Troy Smith until he was suspended. But Zwick was god awful in those starts. That’s about the only reason I added this one.

2005 Las Vegas Bowl Steve Levy Cal(-8) vs BYU 35-28. Levy started in the last game of the year vs Stanford and was victorious. Cal led BYU 35-14 at the beginning of the 4^th quarter. BYU got the a TD to cover with 5 minutes remaining in the game.

2005 Emerald Bowl Brett Ratliff Utah(+9) vs Georgia Tech 38-10. This was Ratliffs 2^nd start he replaced Brian Johnson. I remember that GT didn’t even want to get off the bus for this game.

2005 Gator Bowl. Hunter Cantwell Louisville(+9) vs Virginia Tech 24-35. Cantwell replaced Brian Brohm. This was actually Cantwells 2^nd start. LV beat UConn with him at QB on the last game of the year. Cantwell was a frosh walk-on that year. Louisville actually lead this game 24-13 in the 4^th quarter and were down 24-28 with 5 minutes left when Cantwell threw a pick that was returned for a TD. LV had the ball 2 more times after that pick.

Now I’m not saying to blindly bet on the team with a 1^st time starting QB in a bowl game. But I sure as hell would think twice about betting against them. So far there haven’t been any announcements of any backups getting their 1^st start so far. But that might change when the flurry of academic suspensions come in. There is on situation where a backup QB will start a bowl after a couple lousy starts, which would be Dominique Davis from BC. The LSU QB situation is another one to look into.

If anybody thinks any of this information is wrong or has more to add to it let me know.:shake:

 

[TroyStacks]

you are correct new qbs do very well or atleast cover

 

[RetroVK]

Anyone know trends involving games where the coach of one team leaves before the bowl game ?

 

[RJ Esq]

Anyone know trends involving games where the coach of one team leaves before the bowl game ?

I know the "lame duck" angle--usually the team rallies around the outbound coach.

No numbers though.

Also anecdotally I believe that teams usually rally around replacement coaches. But no data.

 

[trainwreck42]

I had notes for coaches too as I feel its an important aspect in bowl handicapping. Players play hard for the coach in certain situations. Some interim coaches are way over matched. Below is the reason for the coaches in their first or last game. The year might be off a little bit since some the bowl games took place on Jan 1^st. The results next to them are ATS only. If it has a question mark next to it, it means I didn’t know what the spread was but the coach won the game in a close game. If its a later year with no question mark but a W it means they won in a blow out.


Retirement announced before Bowl Game 5-2 ATS<o></o>

• 1997 Tom Osborne W
• 2000 Don Nehlen W<o></o>
• 2005 Barry Alvarez W<o></o>
• 2007 Jeff Bower W<o></o>
• 2007 Lloyd Carr W<o></o>
• 2004 Nick Saban L (Hired by Miami Dolphins)<o></o>
• 2000 George Welsh L<o></o>

Lameduck 1-3 ATS<o></o>

• 2006 Dirk Koetter Arizona St. L<o></o>
• 2006 Larry Coker Miami L<o></o>
• 2000 Jim Donnan Georgia W
• 2000 Bruce Snyder Az St. L

Interim 8-7 ATS<o></o>

• 2007 Gary Darnell A&M L<o></o>
• 2006 Joe Kines Bama L<o></o>
• 2007 DeWayne Walker UCLA W<o></o>
• 2007 Chris Thurmond Houston L<o></o>
• 2007 Jon Tenuta Ga Tech L<o></o>
• 2007 Reggie Herring Arkansas L<o></o>
• 2007 Bill Stewart WVU W (Was Interim at game time)
• 2006 Jeff Quinn Cent Mich W
• 2006 Frank Spaziani BC L
• 2005 Mike Hankwitz Col W
• 2004 Charlie Strong Fla L
• 2004 Kent Baer Notre Dame L
• 2003 Bo Pelini Nebraska W
• 2002 Ed Kezirian UCLA W
• 2001 Mac McWhorter W

<o></o>
Promoted or 1st Game as HC 6-1 ATS<o></o>

• 2007 Ken Niumatalolo Navy W<o></o>
• 2006 Brain Kelly Cinn L <o></o>
• 2000 Gary Patterson TCU W?<o></o>
• 1999 Bobby Williams Mich St. W?<o></o>
• 1997 Carl Torbush No. Carolina W?<o></o>
• 1998 Chris Scelfo Tulane W?<o></o>
• 1998 David Cutcliffe Ole Miss W<o></o>

Onto a Better Job(Accepted new HC position at another School but coached bowl game) 2-4 ATS<o></o>

• 2005 Dan Hawkins Col L
• 2004 Terry Hoepner Mi Ohio L
• 2004 Urban Meyer Utah W
• 2004 Walt Harris Pitt L
• 2002 Mike Price Wash St. L
• 2000 Dirk Koetter Boise St. W

 

[trainwreck42]

If you guys are looking for bowl results and recaps USAToday has them back to 1998. ESPN only goes to 2003. Here is a link for 2002, scroll down to the bottom of the page and you'll see links for 1998-2001. Sorry no spreads or O/U.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/bowls-2002.htm

 

[goldengreek]

Okay guys I debated releasing this research I did personally that took a very long time to do and was very tidious. I think this will best be used within a few days of each bowl game in order for you to get the best line. There is no coincidence these trends have not had a losing season since 2000 in some cases. No I do not soley base my capping of bowl season on this but its kind of hard not to make it a significant part. Please to do not share this with the "other" website. Fuck them hahaha....well here it is:

2003-04 Season
Dogs of 7 or better(meaning +8......) went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better(meaning -6,-5.5.....) went 9-6 ATS 60%
For a total of 16-9 ATS 64% winners

2004-05 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-2 ATS 78%
Favs of 6.5 or beter went 10-7 59%
For a total of 17-9 ATS 64% winners

2005-06 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 13-1 ATS 93%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 7-5 ATS 58%
For a total of 20-6 ATS 77% winners

2006-07 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 9-5 ATS 64%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 8-11 ATS 42%
For a total of 17-16 ATS 52% winners

2007-08 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 15-8 ATS 65%
For a total of 23-11 ATS 68% winners

*Includes buying .5 hook either way so -7 can be +7.5 or -6.5

Now you can see the dog plays have a combined total of 76% winners! Simply amazing. Since this parameter is so much more successful let me break down 7 point dogs or better since 2000 bowl season ATS......


SEC:5-1

B10:8-2

B12:4-3

P10:5-0

MWC:5-1

WAC:1-0

ACC:2-3

BE:2-4

CUSA:4-2

IND:0-1

MAC:0-0

SB:2-1


Total all that up and you have a record of 40-18 ATS 69% winners over a 5 year period. That is not just dumb luck or a stupid system guys. This is what I think to be very useful information and it kind of allows vegas to cap the games for us without any effort. I feel between the conference break downs and combining them with overall bowl trends over the past few seasons there is not reason why 65% is not an achievable goal. Maybe you don't think this is of any use but I do and will be "following this system closely" hahhaha. Anyways GL guys.


***ALL UPDATED EXCEPT FOR CONFERENCE BREAKDOWNS WILL DO THAT CLOSER TO BOWL TIME***

Great stuff !

 

[goldengreek]

2008-09 System Plays

Wake Forest -3
Fresno St -3'
Memphis +13'
Arizona -3'
Troy -4
TCU -2
Hawaii -2
CMU -6'
WVU/UNC (pk)
Florida St -5
Cal -6
Northern Illinois -1'
NC St/Rutgers (7)
NW +13'
Nevada -1
Rice -3
Oklahoma St -3'
Houston -3
Oregon St -3
BC -4
Minnesota +10
GTech -4
Iowa -3
Clemson -3
Penn St +10
Cincy -1'
Texas Tech -6
Georgia -3
ECU -2'
Utah +10'
UConn -4'
Ohio St +10
Ball St -2'
Florida -3

See how those do.

Are these based of the info in the very first post ?

 

[TroyStacks]

yes

 

[stevsa]

hello,
i just reread this thread and noticed something of interest. on posts 51, 52, and 54 it runs down the results from 05-08. instead of using 7 as the middle number if you had used 6 you would be 5-1 better. moondawg brought this up earlier, on post 22. im not sure how it would have changed the outcome before 05. maybe someone with the proper stats can look it up. also trainwreck had some good stuff. i wonder how this system looks if you break it down to pre x-mas and post x-mas?
thanks and good luke to all,
stevsa

 

[TroyStacks]

i used 7 i believe as 6.5 since we usually buy the hook and in cases of buying it up thats your call i like faves better haha.... and 7.5+ as the dog i did this 2 yrs ago but this is what i thought i did with the numbers

 

[TroyStacks]

2008-09 System Plays

Wake Forest -3
Fresno St -2.5
Memphis +13'
Arizona -3'
Troy -4
TCU -2
Hawaii -2
CMU -6'
WVU/UNC (pk)
Florida St -5
Cal -6
Northern Illinois -1'
NC St/Rutgers (7)
NW +13'
Nevada -1
Rice -3
Oklahoma St -3'
Houston -3
Oregon St -3
BC -4
Minnesota +10
GTech -4
Iowa -3
Clemson -3
Penn St +10
Cincy -1'
Texas Tech -6
Georgia -3
ECU -2'
Utah +10'
UConn -4'
Ohio St +10
Ball St -2'
Florida -3

See how those do.

1-0

 

[Edmond_Dantes]

Troy, I've been looking at past bowl games, and my numbers tell me that it's more profitable to take ALL underdogs from Christmas to New Year's Eve. I haven't looked at games from 1992-1999 in detail, but from 2000-present, if you were to take every underdog from .5-6 and 7.5+, then you would have gone 66-34 (66%). You would have lost money in only two years since 2000 taking these dogs. In 2003, you would have gone 6-7, and last year you would have gone 6-6. I've compared home and away dogs at .5-3, 3.5-6, 6.5-7, and 7.5+, and it seems the most profitable if you just take all dogs excluding dogs at +6.5-7 (for some reason, these only hit at ~50%). PM me if you want more details on this.

 

[TroyStacks]

hmmmm all dog after christmas? interesting

 

[TroyStacks]

2-2

 

[Morphius]

BOWL SYSTEM

BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
One of the simplest & most successful bowl systems around, is to go against the
team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Let's see how this
simple & uncomplicated trend has fared over the last 34 bowl campaigns.

YEAR BOWL FOE OF HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6½ WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3½ Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6½ WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7½ WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11½ WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2½ WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4½ WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2½ Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6½ WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15½ WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7½ Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3½ Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6½ Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13½ WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8½ WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5½ WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER


RESULT: 24-8-1: 75% VS SPREAD<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[Jude Rigby]

Reversal of trends???

We all know that Notre Dame as lost its last 9 bowls games.

Interestingly enough Notre Dame was also an underdog in all those losses as well.

Last time they were favored in a bowl was the last time they won.

I assume these were the closing lines


Decemeber’08 – Hawai’i Bowl against Hawai’i Result: W, 42-21 ND Line -1.5 to -2.5


January ‘07 - Sugar Bowl against LSU Result: L, 14-41 ND Line +8 .5


January ‘06 - Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State Result: L, 20-34 ND Line +4.5


December’04 - Insight.com Bowl against Oregon State Result: L, 21-38 ND Line +4


January ’03 - Gator Bowl against NC State Result: L, 6-28 ND Line +1


January ’01 - Fiesta Bowl against Oregon State Result: L, 9-41 ND Line +3.5


January ‘99 - Gator Bowl against Georgia Tech Result: L, 28-35 ND Line +2.5


December’97 - Independence Bowl against LSU Result: L, 9-27 ND Line +6.5


January ‘96 - Orange Bowl against Florida State Result: L, 26-31 ND Line +10.5


January ’95 - Fiesta Bowl against Colorado Result: L, 24-41 ND Line +7


January ‘94 - Cotton Bowl against Texas A&M Result: W, 24-21 ND Line -8

 

[Inspekdah]

Small fave = N.D!

 

[RJ Esq]

2-2

2-4 now with Notre Dame pending.

 

[RJ Esq]

Calling it early.

Trend is 3-4 before Christmas this year. The lone huge dog did not cover while 3 small dogs covered (2 winning outright). Of those 2 small dogs, I'll say that both did not deserve to win or cover (although you could make an argument for Southern Miss).

 

[RJ Esq]

In case you don't like how you're bowl season is going so far, you should know how Phil Steele is doing:

1* Wake Forest (W)
3* Fresno St (L)
2* Memphis (L)
2* BYU (L)
1* Troy (L)
3* TCU (L)
4* Notre Dame (W)

2-5 is not good particularly when gauged by his star ranking.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

2-4 now with Notre Dame pending.

systems

now are we looking at the opening or closing lines?
if opening, the system is 2-5...if closing, the system is 3-4...after ND.

howz it going w/ the o/u 60 on the total side?

 

[TroyStacks]

closing line

 

[JML4481]

So far this year:

Memphis +11 L
Miami +10 W
Northwestern +12.5 W
Minnesota +9 L

Both of the following were '7' on the closing number on blankets.
Florida Atlantic +7 W
Wisconsin +7

So either 2-2 or 3-3 either way, some healthy dogs coming up....

Michigan St +8ish
Penn St +9ish
Utah +9ish
Ohio St +8ish