Bowl Trends

[TroyStacks]

Okay guys I debated releasing this research I did personally that took a very long time to do and was very tidious. I think this will best be used within a few days of each bowl game in order for you to get the best line. There is no coincidence these trends have not had a losing season since 2000 in some cases. No I do not soley base my capping of bowl season on this but its kind of hard not to make it a significant part. Please to do not share this with the "other" website. Fuck them hahaha....well here it is:

2003-04 Season
Dogs of 7 or better(meaning +8......) went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better(meaning -6,-5.5.....) went 9-6 ATS 60%
For a total of 16-9 ATS 64% winners

2004-05 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-2 ATS 78%
Favs of 6.5 or beter went 10-7 59%
For a total of 17-9 ATS 64% winners

2005-06 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 13-1 ATS 93%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 7-5 ATS 58%
For a total of 20-6 ATS 77% winners

2006-07 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 9-5 ATS 64%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 8-11 ATS 42%
For a total of 17-16 ATS 52% winners

2007-08 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 15-8 ATS 65%
For a total of 23-11 ATS 68% winners

*Includes buying .5 hook either way so -7 can be +7.5 or -6.5

Now you can see the dog plays have a combined total of 76% winners! Simply amazing. Since this parameter is so much more successful let me break down 7 point dogs or better since 2000 bowl season ATS......


SEC:5-1

B10:8-2

B12:4-3

P10:5-0

MWC:5-1

WAC:1-0

ACC:2-3

BE:2-4

CUSA:4-2

IND:0-1

MAC:0-0

SB:2-1


Total all that up and you have a record of 40-18 ATS 69% winners over a 5 year period. That is not just dumb luck or a stupid system guys. This is what I think to be very useful information and it kind of allows vegas to cap the games for us without any effort. I feel between the conference break downs and combining them with overall bowl trends over the past few seasons there is not reason why 65% is not an achievable goal. Maybe you don't think this is of any use but I do and will be "following this system closely" hahhaha. Anyways GL guys.


***ALL UPDATED EXCEPT FOR CONFERENCE BREAKDOWNS WILL DO THAT CLOSER TO BOWL TIME***

 

[Seabass]

When you got these records, were they done based on closing lines? Openers?

thanks

 

[tru]

i can take it back to 92 gimme a few an i can look it up in my data base

 

[TroyStacks]

closing....i took info from covers scoreboard records and old phil steele previews to research lines and games

 

[TroyStacks]

tru that would be great...if you'd like send me your database and i will break it down in every aspect just as i did for conferences and such

 

[tru]

aight openin up a few years now, need to clean a few things up. ill letcha know when its good. either later tonight or sometime tomorrow. u use aim?

 

[HUNT]

good stuff troy, thanks.

 

[TroyStacks]

yes.....troystacks

 

[E.T.G.]

great info dude... this will be my first serious bowl season so I will be playing close attention..

 

[tru]

when ya get tha chance get on aim an get at me stacks. i had to throw a few numbers in there for las years bowls didnt have a line or 2. its all tha way back to 92, lookin to get it back farther also but some shit looks decent sofar.

Dogs 7.5 and greater 54-33-2 62.06% 1992-2005 bowl games

 

[TroyStacks]

ok signed on

 

[trainwreck42]

Troy and tru,
Great numbers and trends. I have a statfox magazine that somewhat supports these numbers(mainly double digit dogs) plus many more trends. If you want I can add them later.

 

[TroyStacks]

yes add whatever goes along with this

 

[M.R. Goode]

Stacks, you might check your numbers and seperate out the BCS games or at least Jan 1 bowls and check to see if favs have done a little better inthose games.

 

[TroyStacks]

good point i'll check those out tonite and break some more stuff down

 

[trainwreck42]

Here are some trends of note that I thought would be helpful for this thread. I would like to state that these numbers and trends are not my work they have been copied from the 2006 Statfox Edge Football Annual. Any information I have added is in bold print. Mods if you think this is a problem submitting this info feel free to delete it and I would willingly e-mail in Word format for anyone who asks.

General Bowl Trends of Recent Years:<o =""></o>
-Ten teams have played bowl games on their home turf. Those hosts are 8-4 SU & 8-3 ATS. This years teams include New Mexico & Hawaii<o =""></o>

-Underdogs enjoyed a fantastic bowl season in 2005-06, going 13-15 SU & 19-9 ATS, a spread conversion rate of 67.9%<o =""></o>

-Double-digit underdogs are just 8-40 SU but 29-19-2 ATS, 60.4%, since 1992. All four DD bowl underdogs covered the spread last season. This years DD dogs include <st1 ="">Northern Illinois</st1>, <st1 =""><st1:city>Middle</st1:city> Tenn St., <st1:state>Kentucky</st1:state></st1>, <st1:state><st1 ="">Iowa</st1></st1:state>, Wake was at +10 but currently at +9.5.<o =""></o>

-Overs have dominated total plays during the last two years. Including 19-9 in 2005-06, the Overs have hit at a 62.5% clip.

-Games with extremely high totals (63 or higher) have gone Over 65.5% of the time, 19-10, since ’92. This years games <st1:street><st1:address>Arizona St.</st1:address></st1:street> vs <st1:state><st1 ="">Hawaii</st1>lace></st1:state> (75), <st1:state><st1 ="">>Minnesota</st1></st1:state> vs <st1:state><st1 ="">Texas</st1></st1:state> Tech (66.5)<o =""></o>

-Games with extremely low totals (37 or lower) have gone Under 62.5% of the time, 5-3, since ’92. No games currently under 37, the closest game is <st1:country-region><st1 ="">Georgia</st1></st1:country-region> vs Virginia Tech (39).<o =""></o>

-Bowl favorites of 11 points or less off 35+ days rest and 14+ more days rest than opponent are 0-16 ATS since 1989, failing to cover the spread by more than 10 points a game on average.Last year <st1:street><st1:address>Penn St.</st1:address></st1:street> -10 qualified (35+ days rest & 14+ more than opp) against FSU and won 26-23 in OT. Just one I saw somewhere else that was intriguing for the Nat’l Championship game.<o =""></o>
<u1 ="">
</u1>

 

[trainwreck42]

Once again these numbers and trends are not my work and have been copied from the 2006 Statfox Edge Foot ball annual.

Top Bowl Game Team Side & Total Trends<o =""></o>

The Good bowl Game Teams<o =""></o>
-<st1 =""><st1 =""><st1 =""><st1 ="">Boston</st1></st1><st1 =""><st1 ="">College</st1></st1></st1></st1> is 8-1 SU & ATS in its last nine bowl games, including wins in each of its last six.<o =""></o>
-<st1:state><st1 =""><st1:state><st1 ="">Utah</st1></st1:state></st1></st1:state> has won five straight bowl games outright and is 4-0 ATS in its last four.<o =""></o>
-<st1:city><st1 =""><st1:city><st1 ="">Miami</st1></st1:city></st1></st1:city> is on a 7-2 SU & ATS run in its last nine bowl games.<o =""></o>
-<st1 =""><st1 =""><st1 =""><st1 ="">Ohio</st1></st1><st1 =""><st1 =""></st1></st1></st1></st1>St. is 4-0 SU & ATS in its last 4 bowl games.<o =""></o>


-<st1 =""><st1 =""><st1 =""><st1 ="">Wake</st1></st1><st1 =""><st1 ="">Forest</st1></st1></st1></st1> is 3-0 SU & ATS.<o =""></o>

The Poor Bowl Game Teams<o =""></o>
-Notre Dame has lost eight straight bowl games and is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine. <o =""></o>
-<st1:city><st1 =""><st1:city><st1 ="">Louisville</st1></st1:city></st1></st1:city> is on a 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS stretch in recent bowl game action.<o =""></o>
-<st1:state><st1 =""><st1:state><st1 ="">West Virginia</st1></st1:state></st1></st1:state> has not matched its regular season success in bowl games, as it is just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in its last 10 bowl games.<o =""></o><o =""></o>
-New Mexico & BYU have lost four straight bowl games and are 1-3 ATS in that span.<o =""></o>
-Purdue is just 1-5 SU & <st1:date year="2001" day="4" month="1"><st1:date year="2001" day="4" month="1">1-4-1</st1:date></st1:date> ATS in six bowl games since 2000.<o =""></o>
-<st1:state><st1 ="">Kansas</st1> </st1:state><st1 ="">St.</st1> is 3-3 SU, but often overvalued in bowl games, as evidenced by its 1-5 ATS record in those contests.<o =""></o>
<u1 =""></u1>
The Over Bowl Game Teams<o =""></o>

-<st1:state><st1 =""><st1:state><st1 ="">Michigan</st1></st1:state></st1></st1:state> has been a big Over team as well in bowl games, surpassing the total in seven of its last eight.<o =""></o>
-<st1:state><st1 =""><st1:state><st1 ="">West Virginia</st1></st1:state></st1></st1:state>’s last seven bowl games have resulted in six overs.<o =""></o>
-Texas & Florida have been reliable for Over bettors, converting 83% of their last six tries, 5-1.<o =""></o>
-<st1:state><st1 =""><st1:state><st1 ="">Cal</st1></st1:state></st1></st1:state> and G.Tech are each working on bowl game trends that have seen their Over totals run to four straight.<o =""></o>

The Under Bowl Game Teams<o =""></o>
-The schools in <st1:state><st1 =""><st1:state><st1 ="">Arizona</st1></st1:state></st1></st1:state> have been huge Under teams in bowl games. The Wildcats have gone Under the total in four straight and the Sun Devils in 6 of 7.<o =""></o>
-<st1:state><st1 =""><st1:state><st1 ="">Oklahoma</st1></st1:state></st1></st1:state> is 8-1 to the Under.<o =""></o>
-<st1:state><st1 =""><st1:state><st1 ="">Utah</st1></st1:state></st1></st1:state> is 6-1 to the Under.
-Auburn have gone Under the total in five straight bowl games.<o =""></o>
-Cincy has gone Under four straight.<o =""></o>
-<st1:state><st1 =""><st1:state><st1 ="">Penn.</st1></st1:state></st1></st1:state><st1 ="">St.</st1>& <st1:state><st1 ="">Tex.</st1></st1:state> A&M are 5-1 to the Under.<o =""></o>
<u1 =""></u1>
Top Bowl Game Conference Side & Total<o =""></o>
-The ACC teams have combined for a 13-7 SU & 14-6 ATS record over the last three seasons. <o =""></o>
-The Big East Conference have struggled over the last three seasons in bowl games, as its representatives are just 5-9 SU & 6-8 ATS in that span. Six of the last nine bowl games have gone Over.<o =""></o>
-Big Ten Conference has produced 8 Overs out of last 10 games.<o =""></o>
-Favorites in bowl games involving Conference <st1:country-region><st1 =""><st1:country-region><st1 ="">USA</st1></st1:country-region></st1></st1:country-region> teams have been on a tear, going 15-1 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games.<o =""></o>
-Favorites are on a roll in games involving Independent teams as well, going 8-1 SU & ATS in the last nine games. Independents as underdogs have been a staggering 2-7 SU & ATS.<o =""></o>
-Mountain West is 13-7 ATS in bowl games.<o =""></o>
-Pac 10 teams are 12-6 for the Over. They are 26-22 SU but an amazing 37-10 ATS.<o =""></o>
-SEC underdogs are on a huge roll, covering their last 10 and winning 8 of them SU. 16 of 26 games have gone Under.<o =""></o>
-WAC is 14-5 for the Over and are 5-14 ATS.<o =""></o>
<u1 =""></u1>
Individual Bowl Game Series<o =""></o>
-GMAC Bowl- Conference USA teams are 1-6 SU & ATS.<o =""></o>
-Champs Sports Bowl- Four of the last five bowl games have gone Over. The favorite is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.<o =""></o>
-<st1:state><st1 =""><st1:state><st1 ="">Hawaii</st1></st1:state></st1></st1:state> Bowl- Five Straight Overs.<o =""></o>
-<st1 =""><st1 =""><st1 =""><st1 ="">Motor</st1></st1><st1 =""><st1 ="">City</st1></st1></st1></st1> Bowl- The MAC has fallen in all of its last four.<o =""></o>
-Insight.Com Bowl- The underdog is on a run of 7-2 ATS. Over plays are 7-1.<o =""></o>
-Houston Bowl- The representative of the Big 12 have gone <st1:date year="2001" day="1" month="3"><st1:date year="2001" day="1" month="3">3-1-1</st1:date></st1:date> ATS.<o =""></o>
-Independence Bowl- The underdogs are 6-2 ATS.<o =""></o>
-Holiday Bowl- 8 straight underdog covers.
-Meineke Car Care Bowl- The ACC has cashed the last 3 out of 4 games.<o =""></o>
-Alamo Bowl- The Big Ten team is 7-3 SU & ATS.<o =""></o>
-<st1 =""><st1 =""><st1 =""><st1 ="">Music</st1></st1><st1 =""><st1 ="">City</st1></st1></st1></st1> Bowl- The SEC representative is 1-6 SU & ATS. The bowl game has went Under in its last 4.<o =""></o>
-MPC Computers Bowl- The favorite is 5-1 SU & ATS.<o =""></o>
-Sun Bowl- Dogs are <st1:date year="2001" day="1" month="9"><st1:date year="2001" day="1" month="9">9-1-1</st1:date></st1:date> ATS.<o =""></o>
-Liberty Bowl- this bowl game has gone Under 12 times in its last 14.<o =""></o>
-Peach Bowl- The representative of the ACC has gone 4-1 SU & ATS. The Under is 8-2.<o =""></o>
-Cotton Bowl- Has gone Under 9 out of 11 times. <o =""></o>
-Outback Bowl- Underdogs have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS. The Over has hit the last 5 times.<o =""></o>
-Gator Bowl- The favorite is 9-1 SU & ATS.<o =""></o>
-Capital One Bowl- Six of the last 8 games have gone Over.<o =""></o>
-Rose Bowl- Designated Home Teams are 11-2 ATS.<o =""></o>
-Sugar Bowl- Three straight Underdog covers. The Under is <st1:date year="2001" day="4" month="8"><st1:date year="2001" day="4" month="8">8-4-1</st1:date></st1:date>.<o =""></o>
-Fiesta Bowl- The team with the better SU record has won 9 Fiesta Bowl Games in a row, both SU & ATS.<o =""></o>

 

[Mags]

Like this Troy...is this one of your 10 criteria in breaking down the Bowl Games?

 

[TroyStacks]

now this is a seperate process i use

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

great stuff, guys :shake:

lot's of good info, and trends. just another piece to the puzzle...

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Thanks for the thread guys! I love this info. Good luck on the Bowls! I haven't looked at them yet!</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[moondawg]

Holy "bowl spread-mark and total SYSTEM" Batman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This was exactly my SYSTEM for bowl games. My SYSTEM for regular season is a little different, but the premise is exactly the same......no capping, just betting based on where the line is. And this is nearly exactly the same SYSTEM I've used for the last 3 years.

1. Blindly bet the over.
2. Dogs of 6 or more, take e'm......Favs of 5.5 and less, take e'm.

I guess that's the only difference. I play the dogs at the 6+ mark instead of 7.

Good stuff Troy. I guess I don't feel totally insane by blindly betting on where the line is.............went 62% on the season on ATS and 63% on totals.

Anyway, just letting ya know..........I'm right there w/ ya man!!!!!!!!!

 

[trainwreck42]

Another trend from Statfox Edge 2006 college football annual.

The last 3 years Pre X-mas day favorites are 16-1 SU(94.1%) & 12-5 ATS(70.6%).

The last 3 years Post X-mas day favorites are 36-31 SU(53.7%) & 24-41 ATS (37.9%)

 

[TroyStacks]

great work trainwreck i am recording all this for future reference as well

 

[rufus1966]

freaking unreal info guys.

thanks alot for your work..............

 

[smo1a]

Great stuff, especially since I've yet to make any bowl plays. I will definitely consider these trends in my capping

Thanks again bro. Gotta get over to the other site and let 'em know!















Just kidding!

 

[Dreamer]

Great stuff!
Looking forward to making lots of money this bowl season.... It's finally here!
:smiley_acbe:

 

[TroyStacks]

bump for updating purposes

 

[RJ Esq]

Well, then, update it, Troy.

 

[TroyStacks]

Did It Read Bold At Bottome Of First Post Though

 

[TroyStacks]

i'll double check numbers as well i just did this quick in pure excitement

 

[pags11]

good info. here...thanks...

 

[frankiegotti]

phenominal thread troy good luck on yoru bets this post season.

 

[JimmyHoffa]

Awesome. Great information. Thanks for the effort you put into this thread. Also, glad to see your team back in it...I called them (National Champs) at the beginning of the year (after playing playstation of all things). Thought I was out after the trip to Tampa. Hope they keep it rolling.

 

[horses]

troy,

thanks for this thread...

question for you as I may be misinterpreting the data...in your initial post you have the MAC listed as 0-0 as dogs of 7 or more pts...and that is since the year 2000?! I know NIU was a 13 point dog just LY vs TCU in the Poinsettia bowl. There has got to be others as well...the MAC has been a dog of more than a TD quite often since 2000 if I'm not mistaken.

 

[GambleOn]

Great info Troy, thank you!

 

[YourMomIsLovely]

Great info. So far, the overall trend is 11-3 this bowl season.

Small Faves are 7-3
Big Dogs are 4-0

 

[RJ Esq]

Bump motherfucker!

Good job, Troy.

I'll stick this one and JP's.

 

[RJ Esq]

Can someone summarize the 2007-08 Bowl Season so we can add the stat in post 1?

 

[TroyStacks]

gimme a sec

 

[TroyStacks]

DONE!

 

[HUNT]

Troy, is it 7.5 and better or only 8 and better?

Thanks bro.

 

[TroyStacks]

7.5

 

[HUNT]

thanks

 

[Mags]

Troy, love the thread bro, great shit and it's appreciated! This is the most wonderful time of the year...Bowl Season! This is when I excel...pretty good year going ytd for me but I will take it to another level.

 

[CapTwo]

another valuable asset from the 703!

thanks troy...

 

[Joe Public]

Nice pull, Cap.

 

[electra]

trainwreck 42
check Ohio State's last 4 bowl appearances...they lost to LSU su and to Florida su/ATS 2006-2007

 

[Morphius]

Nice info. Thanks for posting.

 

[RJ Esq]

2008-09 System Plays

Wake Forest -3
Fresno St -3'
Memphis +13'
Arizona -3'
Troy -4
TCU -2
Hawaii -2
CMU -6'
WVU/UNC (pk)
Florida St -5
Cal -6
Northern Illinois -1'
NC St/Rutgers (7)
NW +13'
Nevada -1
Rice -3
Oklahoma St -3'
Houston -3
Oregon St -3
BC -4
Minnesota +10
GTech -4
Iowa -3
Clemson -3
Penn St +10
Cincy -1'
Texas Tech -6
Georgia -3
ECU -2'
Utah +10'
UConn -4'
Ohio St +10
Ball St -2'
Florida -3

See how those do.