Bowl Season

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
I dont think I will jump that early at games but here is what I am thinkimg:

TCU -12.5 -110

-This team is just on fire..... but if it gets to be a pub fav I wont be involved...

Oregon +5.5 and Over 59

- BYU is the hot team but I feel that the line might be taking that into account already..the whole Duck Qb situation as wlel...

Troy +8 and Under 49.5

-Rice is a great story but they have won a few lately that they could have anmaybe should have lost...fade based on the number...

ECU +3.5

-ECU is fairly eqaul IMO to USF which is getting extra value ofr the WVU win..

Tulsa +3

- Again equal teams but that game versus BYU maybe influencing the line...

Under 49.5 SJST...

- just think this should be an very uninteresting game...

ASU +8 and over 75.5

- Hawaii was somewhat exposed and ASU should be able to score...

FSU +5.5

- defensive minded game.....

Wow!! Rutgers got fucked from a big bowl to Kansas State...still like them cause its so important they win a bowl game and KST is young....

Texas A & M cause no one is mpressed by Cal....

Kentucky +11

- Clemson still hasnt played well lately....

Love Houston +7.......

Purdue v Maryland

- think little of both so the dog looks attractive but something you wait till gameday to decide...


Texas -11.5 depending on health and motivation .....Iowa just underperformed all year......

Auburn -3

-nebraska just never seems to beat good teams...

Ten -6

- another strong one cause Penn State cant score!!

Florida +7.5 ...

- to me Florida is just as good if not better then Michigan so that makes this valueable IMO...

havent looked if I havent commeneted......

feel free to share an opinion or two...
 
My oh my, you and I are gonna be opposite on quite a few this year brother. Oh well, it happens sometimes to the best of us I suppose, we can't agree on everything.
 
SportsNut said:
I dont think I will jump that early at games but here is what I am thinkimg:

TCU -12.5 -110 lean here
Oregon +5.5 Opp lean Over 59 Something to think about
Tulsa +3 Opp lean
ASU +8 over 75.5 lean here
FSU +5.5 lean here and lean under
Kentucky +11 lean here
Love Houston +7.......opp here
Ten -6 lean here
Florida +7.5 ...don't know but think the line might rise and then I will play UF
...
Click to expand...

GL, it will be interesting leading up to the games
 
Funny, you posted mostly the games I haven't really looked at yet. I really have no interest in taking Oregon in that BYU game-feel like BYU has something to show the world, and the maturity to do it...like ASU a lot, hoping for a bit extra there (no way does it go below 7)...love ECU getting more than a FG...

Tenny was my initial lean but check out the Paterno vs. Fulmer history. Tenny's message board was NOT happy about this matchup. Any time a home teams fans arent overly confident, I'm not overly confident about laying too many pts. I'm gonna take my time on this card though, not feeling up for getting involved in the funny business of line movement right now...GL, i'll be back
 
I have NOT palyed one game so just my intial thoughts...

Seabass-

Completely agree just one of those games were I was looking for a line move...down to -4 BYU and up to +7 oregon in bewteen I will pass...Ducks with QB issues losers of 3 straight playing one of the hottest teams in teh country....bad spot...

Glad we agree on ECU & ASU cause those are both I do really like...but dont see ASU going higher after Hawaii lost to Oregon State...

What scares me with Tenny is the fact Penn State has such a huge edge on defense......could see the ole 4 pt win by the Vols.....the problem is Penn State hasnt been able to move the ball so I remain cautious with you.. GL

Everythingthatsgreen -

We are basically thinking alike... Utah / Tulsa certainly not concrete..., as for South Carolina they are good but they are inconsistent on both sides of the ball which would lead me to stay away from them as chalk...Gonna dive in and play Kentucky and Troy in a moment for some... GL

Hey Garfather - I havent cemented any in yet (though Kentucky and troy are moments away)......Iplay nearly every game gonna always be on the other side of someone..... Dont worry I am the one who has to do alot work...CFB bowls I do well in the reg season last few years I just seem to never apply myself hard enough and make mistakes...


So I will seek out your thoughts & comments...GL
 
I agree with most of you picks. However, :smiley_acbe: I know im a huge OSU fan but i think Michigan is a way better team then florida. I was seriously shocked when i saw Florida in the NC game.
 
My honest feeling is coming into this season I really wanted to see Michigan do well cause I feel they got shafted in alot ways of last year. So thats my only background. I think FLA deserves it more whether you agree on who is better or more talented cause week after week they were playing solid teams. They may have been alot of close calls but who did Michigan play? I see @ ND who was overrated and hosting WIksy who was underrated. Now with Wisky I think they caught them early just as they were starting to come together. Look at Mich 4 home games after that Iowa who is probably comparable to an Alabama , Ball State , Nwestern and Mich State who just done after the ND game. Mich has a solid defense one of the best in the country. If you ask me though Troy SMith abused them. The only was Michigan got back in the gaem was Ohio State getting over confident and sloppy. They didnt force those turnovers they were a result IMO of a QB who felt he was invincible aftre the 1st half. Michigan is a very good team but college football had so much parity this year. There was no great teams and the closet thing was Ohio State. Gradutaion destroyed a few programs....taking away there elite status....maybe if Manningham was 100% it would have been different but I honestly feel that Mich did ZERO in that game to deserve a rematch. Ohio State played there A game on offense in the 1st half and i just felt they were clearly better....Florida is loaded with talent and I think playing close game after close game only made them better. They have flaws for sure but I think FLA can win SU.......playing those close games will payoff and Ohio State showed holes on defense....

I am no expert just my feeling that based on THEE GAME Michigan outside of the final score that was somewhat BS thanks to a pass interference that never happened and 3 2nd H turnovers....they were on the same level as Ohio State. Florida deserves a shot for consistent wins....The fact they arent any great teams and alot ofteams on the same tier makes it debatable issue. As a fan of CFB I would much rather see Fla vs Ohio State.....for Ohio State they wont be able to get up the same way if they played Michigan even for a National Championship...its easy to be complacent against someone you already beat....much better matchup IMO.....and I will be on the FLA ML....
 
SportsNut said:
My honest feeling is coming into this season I really wanted to see Michigan do well cause I feel they got shafted in alot ways of last year. So thats my only background. I think FLA deserves it more whether you agree on who is better or more talented cause week after week they were playing solid teams. They may have been alot of close calls but who did Michigan play? I see @ ND who was overrated and hosting WIksy who was underrated. Now with Wisky I think they caught them early just as they were starting to come together. Look at Mich 4 home games after that Iowa who is probably comparable to an Alabama , Ball State , Nwestern and Mich State who just done after the ND game. Mich has a solid defense one of the best in the country. If you ask me though Troy SMith abused them. The only was Michigan got back in the gaem was Ohio State getting over confident and sloppy. They didnt force those turnovers they were a result IMO of a QB who felt he was invincible aftre the 1st half. Michigan is a very good team but college football had so much parity this year. There was no great teams and the closet thing was Ohio State. Gradutaion destroyed a few programs....taking away there elite status....maybe if Manningham was 100% it would have been different but I honestly feel that Mich did ZERO in that game to deserve a rematch. Ohio State played there A game on offense in the 1st half and i just felt they were clearly better....Florida is loaded with talent and I think playing close game after close game only made them better. They have flaws for sure but I think FLA can win SU.......playing those close games will payoff and Ohio State showed holes on defense....

I am no expert just my feeling that based on THEE GAME Michigan outside of the final score that was somewhat BS thanks to a pass interference that never happened and 3 2nd H turnovers....they were on the same level as Ohio State. Florida deserves a shot for consistent wins....The fact they arent any great teams and alot ofteams on the same tier makes it debatable issue. As a fan of CFB I would much rather see Fla vs Ohio State.....for Ohio State they wont be able to get up the same way if they played Michigan even for a National Championship...its easy to be complacent against someone you already beat....much better matchup IMO.....and I will be on the FLA ML....
Click to expand...

:cheers: Very well put i retract my prior comment
 
Great call on TCU..they should roll the NI defense. TCU's defense is no laughing matter. coach Gary is good at keeping the kids focused. Thanks for all your effort (nba as well !!)
 
Tuesday 12/19

Northern Ill +13 -110 (2units) ML +410 (1/4u)

Well as you can see I started out liking TCU cause they were blowing teams out but I noticed real BAD teams. Now after some thought / research I felt the line was just to big. As Mistaflava pointed out who is more motivated here...you would think TCU is disappointed to be playing in this Bowl. Second is there is alot of talk about TCUs run defense. Well I feel one thing holds true in sports: great athletes cannot be stopped you can only hope to contain them and get them on a bad day. Wolfe despite his conference is a great back and with rest should be 100%. As you know I bet based on lines..So I see a TCU team who played some very below avg team on the road and didnt come out smelling like roses IMO..I wont make a big deal about Utah and Baylor early cause Ballard wasnt 100%. Now @ Army , @ Unlv , @ NM the Horn Frogs did a nice job in the 1st Half but sort of cruised in those 2nd H's...something that had me contemplaying TCU -6.5 as well. Ballard was 6 of 16 for 25 yards @ NM and he threw for 160 and 190 in the others...these are not very good teams and not equal to Northern Illinois IMO.....I think there good defense carried them against bad teams and bad offenses neither of which NIU is. The NIU Huskies actually played sound defense in there road games and sound football. What struck me is that traveling to Iowa and Ohio State they caught around 14 to 18 pts to some big time schools...on the road TCU was not very big chalk versus these bad schools and when they were struggled to cover..

In the end I felt anything higher then 10 points presented value for the dog as I see a 27-20 game...I wouldnt expect TCU 's 'A' game here or for them to slow Wolfe as much as expected. Nicholson doesnt appear to be a dropoff from Horvath...

Thursday 12/21

Oregon +3.5 -120 (2units) ML +140 (1/4u) Losses -2.65
BYU Over 32.5 -124 (1u) Win +1.00
Over 62 +105 (2u) Loss -2.00

Friday 12/22

Troy State +8 -110 ( 4units) ML +165 (1/2u) Wins +4.83

Sat 12/23

East Carolina +6-115 {2u} , +4.5 -105 (1u) ,ML +179 (1/2u) Losses -3.85
Under 21.5 -110 1st H ECU (1u) -1.10

Under 49 -110 New Mexico (2units) +2.00
SJST +3.5 -110 (1units) +135 (1/2u) +1.68

Tulsa ML +120 (4units) Loss -4.8

Sunday 12/24

Arizona State +7.5 -120 (4u) Loss -4.80

Tuesday 12/26

Mid Tenn +10 -110 (2units)L -2.20

Wed 12/27

FSU +4.5 -105 (4units) ML +167 (1u) +5.67

Thurs 12/28

Ok St -2-110 (4u) WIn +4.00
Under 55 -110 Cal (4u) PUSH
Kansas St +9 -110 (4u) ML +(1/4u) L-4.65

Friday 12/29

Kentucky +11 -110( 3units) ML +350 (1/2u)

Over 52 -110 Missouri (1unit) changed to Under 53 -105 (2units)

Missouri ML +156 (unit)

Houston +7.5 -120 (5units) ML +200 (1/2unit)

Over 56 -110 Houston (2u)

Over 65 -110 Minnesota (No Play)

Three Leans late : Cincy , ND and Florida


Still alot of work to do but before these lines move further he is what I am thiking..will begin to comment tmrw..
 
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Team Totals:

Under 29.5 +103 TCU (Small) SCRATCHED

Last minute decision change ..ate the juice...

Over 10 1st Quarter +108 (Small) instead L -1.00

NIU +7 -108 2nd H (Small)
 
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Still playing catchup with the Bowls....should be 3-0 but only 1-2...overthought and overanalyzed the first 2 games...
 
I have seriously punted the Bowl games so far in attempt to focus on the Pro Sports but feel like I am missing out on alot.....

Today so far:

Oklahoma State -2 -110 (4units or Large)

Basically I find that teams who come in losing 3 straight tend to perform poorly. Bama really has not beaten anyone of late and this game is so much more defining for Ok State where as Bama in transition....
 
gl and I agree with you on Okie ST. I think Bama should be looking to the future and its probably been hard to prepare for this game, not knowing your future and a few kids probably thinking about tranferring.
 
I hate that your on OK St. and that you're going against South Carolina tomorrow, SN.

Congrats on that FSU win, though, fantastic win.
 
I came into this thread looking for overanalysis and crazy theories about linesetting, and all I found was a good pick on Okie St! :36_11_6:

Just kidding bro, I'm with you on the Boys tonight, hopefully they come through for us :cheers:
 
Keeping it simple for now...thanx guys...and I wouldnt be very concerned about what I am playing I basically was dog hunting in the beginning...
 
you got Houston xlarge +7.5

I got SC xlarge -6

One of us will be a xlarge loser tomorrow.. Hopefully SC wins by 7 :cheers:
 
Like I said my attention to detail with Bowl season has been lackluster so my expectations are not high and neither is my performance to date. I shouldnt concern anyone if I am against them...

Under 55 -110 California (4units)

Think the Cal offense has underperformed last few weeks really about 6 games now. The Aggie D has been solid and impressed me in Texas. I see alot of this game on the ground and hopefully that means long , slow drives...outside of Tenny in the opener Cal didnt allow more then 24 and A&M really scored in the mid 20's for the most part.....Just not as much offense as one would expect I think this Pac 10 D is better then given credit for

Kansas State +9 -110 (4units) ML +280 (1/2unit)

This is one of the rare teams I wil play a DOG thinking they have little chance of winning. I think Rutgers wants to win this Bowl real bad cause what it does for the program. However the emotion and motivation are simply not the same if it was a BCS game. The Texas Bowl?? Oh how the might have fallen! Remember how flat they looked in Cincy?? Just remember they played WVU backup QB and had alot to gain in that game.....not the same here. Do you think RU could beat or even compete with anyone if there backup QB played ?? RU showed they are a solid upcoming program but still far from an elite team. I guess I have faith that KSU grew as the season went along....you had to know after upsetting UT they would fall flat on there face @ KU.....no expectations can be helpful
 
2nd Half:

Under 21.5 -116 RU (1u)

There was 3 1st H TD's ...punt return , 40+ YD TD pass and a 36 YD drive...
 
Fuck me ...simply overthought the damn RU/ KST game! Should have know that KST would not be able to move the ball versus RU..
 
Troutman said:
What do you think about the funky line movement in the Hosuton GAME?
Click to expand...

I am thinking I am very happy I only thought South Carolina should have been -3.5. So I felt this line was way ,way off....both teams played some big games...SC a few more but they were also always dogged....Houston comes in hot and well how good does a win @ Clemson look now??
 
Yeah, but I dont think that you can compare Confrence USA with the sec, even on a down year, Their win over Clemson wasnt that impressive, It was their near win Fla, Tenn, and Arkansas that tells me they are the better team here. I think after signing that contract extension that Spurrier is gonna hurt these fakers from Texas...IMO....
 
Ok State and Miami this season...won their conference...

Everyone mistakes better talent for better team. SC played alot of good teams but many werent as good as they appeared at some points. Whats more important and much more telling to me is SC is ahome dog in conference play and what where they 2 TD dogs vs FLA...all that makes them a great dog but they is a tremendous difference in being the hunter rather then hunted.....
 
Texas Tech 1st H -4.5 -120 (3units)
Over 14 +100 1st Q

I really cant decide on this game. Have liked Tech the whole time but the line move sucked...probably best to play Minny here +8 but I just dont like this team. They beat absolutely no one and were embarrassed every game on the road...
 
Just gonna wait till Halftime I guess on the other. Like the Under but appears to be a sucker bet and the line wentfrom -4 to +1 Maryland....
 
Another overthought session brought to you by me! Damn I stink in some ways..

Looking at BC/Navy its basically off the field distractions versus sneaky, gimmick offense?? If everything was all well in BC would like them but staying away for now. With the rest gimme the texas Under and leaning towards a VaTech Under...be back tmrw....

Navy +8 -110 (2units)ML +260(1/4u)
Under 48 -108 (2u)

Clearly BC is the better team here. The one knock I have had on them all season is there play away from home. The offensive continued to sputter away and while Navy's D is avg at best I still see them at a disadvantage..BC will win its just by how many? Do the BC distractions intefere? Thinking 23-17...
 
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Alright maybe I will get a total right one of these days....

Under 54 +100 Iowa (6units) gonna milk the line though try for 5 or so..

I have watched numerous Iowa games and have seen the Iowa offense repeatedly fail due to drops. Playing a solid UT defense who will stuff the run will make Iowa regret those drops again today...they simply dont have enough playmakers in the passing game which at times has been UT weak link. On the other hand I have said all season Iowa's D is overrated some but McCoy's injury should neutralize that as he was only recently cleared here.....really like UT but will pass cause of how bad they looked vs A&M with McCoy at least then 100%....
 
The amount of bowl games I have lost in the final minute is starting but I cant complain cause I really am not putting much time or effort into this Bowl Season....

1st H Texas -6 -108 (3units)
 
what games have u lost in the final seconds?? Most of these games havent been that close to the number..

Nice call ats..tried to warn u about houston, hows the nfl comin along?
 
Still sifting through the NFL...

Most totals that have lost by a point but remember I also had Houston +7.5...and for all the talk Houston showed exactly what I knew they are only slightily below SC. Kolb made an awful throw early on that was picked off deep in SC territory and that stupid snap...was never interested in HOU @ +4.5....Houston didnt play there best game and SC did what they do every game play 1 great half of football yesterday it was enough...

The Cal Total...they run it in late ..push
The Navy/BC total stupid fumble late lose by 1
Missouri ML ..had Navy ML but it was minor...

those are the most recent I can remember....

Georgia +3.5 -110 (3units) ML +145 (1unit)
Under 38 -115 (4units)


GL bro!
 
The bottomline here is Miami is out of there element in the freezing cold weather and they have 1 away win a close game @ DUKE!!!! Nevada is outclassed obviously talentwise but they can cap their season by saying we beat the UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI!!!! Just think they have the small edges here situational and this should be a low scoring game..
 
Thanks Inspekdah!

USC +3 -110 {5units} Win +5. ML +122 {unit} Win +1.22
Over 47 -104 {4units} Win +4.

Like I have been saying all along I havent been able to pay close attention to the Bowl Games to my dismay. However this is for sure going to be great game like last years Rose Bowl. For me its a value play. Being the game is somewhat cloe to home vs USC its a slight edge. On a neutral field I would have made USC about -1.5 favs against Michigan so feel that -2 or -2.5 is correct. I am concerned about the fact that Michigans last game ws Nov 18th!!! USC played a month ago and two games after Michigans season ended. Personally I was not impressed with Michigans play @ Ohio State. From what I recall Troy Smith played sloppy in the 2nd Half and forced some throws under pressure. I also remember a somewhat questionable 4th down pass interference that gave them the cover. I think Ohio State could have played better in the 2nd half.....USC on the road has underperformed all year due to a inconsistent running game and RB situation. However you are not beating Michigan running the ball you need to attacks it secondary as Ohio State did. This is a tight game that has a huge experience edge to Michigan's QB and RB. Both teams off losses to end their National Championship hopes ....Carroll doesnt lose 2 straight...off the National Championship loss and while neither gets my nod as a good coach we know of UM's history in big games...
 
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USC defense is the difference for me. SO much speed and athletism. Michigan's pass rush is stellar but they can be beat in the secondary. GL on your play
 
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