BIG Week #12

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Hey all, sorry for the late start but it is what it is...

Quick look back at last week...

Ohio St and Purdue was the over palooza we all seemed to think it would be. That was as good as it gets for easy team totals and live overs... points points points...

Michigan State took care of Maryland, although their poor defense still gave up yards and points. Frankly, Maryland left some out there (as did MSU)... but this Spartand team is built to outscore you and keep the pressure on at all times...

Michigan with a very impressive win in Creepy Valley. Now, I first want to give a lot of credit to Clifford. This guy is tough as nails and frankly the fact he made it through this game is something else. In the end, as many said beforehand... it came down to who executed in the red zone. This time it was the Wolverines... they had found a few looks on film they knew they could take advantage of. Both teams had to deal with heavy wind... this was an old school big ten game... Good win against a team that is better than its record.

I guess the Hoosiers decided their season is over? Good lawd...

Wisconsin just keeps getting better and better. Impressive last few weeks for them.

Iowa with an Iowa type win vs the Gophers...


Okay, we have two weeks left and plenty to decide....so buckle up...


Much like last week, I expect lots of points in Columbus... The Buckeyes will be able to do whatever they through the air...and that should open up lanes for Henderson as the game goes...On the other side Michigan State also will find success on offense... and as they have all year I would expect that they will be ultra-aggresive. Now the big question here... does the MSU staff change up their tempo and try and play ball control with Walker? That would obviously change a few things with regards to totals etc. Weather will also need to be monitored... with good conditions and enough OSU possessions I think this is a 49-28 kind of game...

Maryland is perfecting this late season swoon... they are really good at it. This is an awful matchup for them. Obviously this is a sandwich game for Michigan but as KJ said they could stumble into 35 points or so. I actually would lean Michigan here ats and a tt but will have to think about it a bit more. I think they force some Taulia turnovers this week as well...

Those are the two games I will be concentrating on this week...

Tell me about Minnesota @P-Unit ...It seems like Indiana has quit and the game line is very strong...

With the firings and Frost announcement, what do you think we see @cubsker ?

Last, but not least, @PaintCrew how does Purdue get up for this one after the big upset and then track meet last week?


Post away fellas...

and yes, I would play Ohio State now -7 at BOL for 'The Game' next week in A2...
 
Some other UM stuff...

Corum will likely be out again. The rumor is he should be back for Nov 27th. We shall see...

My personal feeling is that if this is a comfortable game we will see more Donovan Edwards this week so Haskins isn't ran into the ground. I don't think Hassan would mind but better safe than sorry. Guy is just tireless and I will enjoy his last 3 games in uniform (he is gone).

Few other guys banged up still, but it's that time of year. Play on.

Last week Colson and Moore both started, as freshmen. Colson is no surprise, he will be an absolute star in college and then the NFL. Moore is a bit, but he has progressed very quickly.

Gattis (OC) is a leading candidate at VT (existing relationship)/ Many Michigan fans laugh at this, fwiw...
 
What did I hear, Lia got called for 3 intentional groundings for Maryland last week? He just runs backwards and heaves it away. Wonder what their QB pressure allowed is?
 
Looking forward to the mad scramble of the end....MSU will show who they really are this weekend. As will Michigan next week. Ohio State is the barometer of success, it's them vs everyone. Just hoping as a fan, UM can stay within 10.

I personally think Thorne gets picked a few times this weekend. MSU has a good oline it will be interesting see how much pressure tosu generates and will be tell tale for the following week.

Michigan should cruise...they got good mojo right now after the valley. Team is fired up. They also know they let one slip away in East Lansing.

I really am only interested in those two games this weekend in the BIG. Possibly a under in Illinois/Iowa. Bert out with the vid.
 
B.A.R. said:
Some other UM stuff...

Corum will likely be out again. The rumor is he should be back for Nov 27th. We shall see...

My personal feeling is that if this is a comfortable game we will see more Donovan Edwards this week so Haskins isn't ran into the ground. I don't think Hassan would mind but better safe than sorry. Guy is just tireless and I will enjoy his last 3 games in uniform (he is gone).

Few other guys banged up still, but it's that time of year. Play on.

Last week Colson and Moore both started, as freshmen. Colson is no surprise, he will be an absolute star in college and then the NFL. Moore is a bit, but he has progressed very quickly.

Gattis (OC) is a leading candidate at VT (existing relationship)/ Many Michigan fans laugh at this, fwiw...
Click to expand...
Gattis has about as good a chance of landing the Va Tech job as you do. I think Freeze lands it unless they get all sentimental and hire Shane Beamer.
 
B.A.R. said:
Hey all, sorry for the late start but it is what it is...

Quick look back at last week...

Ohio St and Purdue was the over palooza we all seemed to think it would be. That was as good as it gets for easy team totals and live overs... points points points...

Michigan State took care of Maryland, although their poor defense still gave up yards and points. Frankly, Maryland left some out there (as did MSU)... but this Spartand team is built to outscore you and keep the pressure on at all times...

Michigan with a very impressive win in Creepy Valley. Now, I first want to give a lot of credit to Clifford. This guy is tough as nails and frankly the fact he made it through this game is something else. In the end, as many said beforehand... it came down to who executed in the red zone. This time it was the Wolverines... they had found a few looks on film they knew they could take advantage of. Both teams had to deal with heavy wind... this was an old school big ten game... Good win against a team that is better than its record.

I guess the Hoosiers decided their season is over? Good lawd...

Wisconsin just keeps getting better and better. Impressive last few weeks for them.

Iowa with an Iowa type win vs the Gophers...


Okay, we have two weeks left and plenty to decide....so buckle up...


Much like last week, I expect lots of points in Columbus... The Buckeyes will be able to do whatever they through the air...and that should open up lanes for Henderson as the game goes...On the other side Michigan State also will find success on offense... and as they have all year I would expect that they will be ultra-aggresive. Now the big question here... does the MSU staff change up their tempo and try and play ball control with Walker? That would obviously change a few things with regards to totals etc. Weather will also need to be monitored... with good conditions and enough OSU possessions I think this is a 49-28 kind of game...

Maryland is perfecting this late season swoon... they are really good at it. This is an awful matchup for them. Obviously this is a sandwich game for Michigan but as KJ said they could stumble into 35 points or so. I actually would lean Michigan here ats and a tt but will have to think about it a bit more. I think they force some Taulia turnovers this week as well...

Those are the two games I will be concentrating on this week...

Tell me about Minnesota @P-Unit ...It seems like Indiana has quit and the game line is very strong...

With the firings and Frost announcement, what do you think we see @cubsker ?

Last, but not least, @PaintCrew how does Purdue get up for this one after the big upset and then track meet last week?


Post away fellas...

and yes, I would play Ohio State now -7 at BOL for 'The Game' next week in A2...
Click to expand...

I just gave the 7 points with OSU. Hopefully that goes better than that awful hockey future I gave out.
 
I expect another loss. Best player on D had surgery and is out for the last two games. Historically, we've moved the ball pretty well on Wisconsin the last few years. Even if we do again, we'll probably turn the ball over, miss FGs, and get stopped on 4th and short.

We really should beat Iowa next week, but well, you know.
 
northwestern is finally playing a team that can't maul them in the run game. Wildcats showed some fight vs iowa and wisconsin. Actually they could of covered vs wisky. Were inside 20/10 yard line numerous times and fitzgerald went for it on 4th down instead of kicking field goals. They kick field goals they cover. Lotta pressure on this team to get the offense going you can tell they are playing hard to do so - passed well on iowa. I like the dog here, a fitzgerald home dog. Team still sucks but decent matchup and some subtle signs
 
EL CAPO said:
northwestern is finally playing a team that can't maul them in the run game. Wildcats showed some fight vs iowa and wisconsin. Actually they could of covered vs wisky. Were inside 20/10 yard line numerous times and fitzgerald went for it on 4th down instead of kicking field goals. They kick field goals they cover. Lotta pressure on this team to get the offense going you can tell they are playing hard to do so - passed well on iowa. I like the dog here, a fitzgerald home dog. Team still sucks but decent matchup and some subtle signs
Click to expand...

I was just looking at this for the ML Dog thread. Yeah, the NW O hasn't been totally dead, every now and then they stick their head up out of the ground. One angle I think you have to like from a NW stand point is the stretch that Purdue has just played. Think NW is going to be pretty up for this game and for Purdue, it's like the least meaningful game they've played in a while.

Game not at home though, at Wrigley
 
s--k said:
I was just looking at this for the ML Dog thread. Yeah, the NW O hasn't been totally dead, every now and then they stick their head up out of the ground. One angle I think you have to like from a NW stand point is the stretch that Purdue has just played. Think NW is going to be pretty up for this game and for Purdue, it's like the least meaningful game they've played in a while.

Game not at home though, at Wrigley
Click to expand...
There will be a large contingent of Purdue fans there (i'd guess 2 or 3x vs what will be there for NW). Program has been looking forward to this for a while as silly as I think it is. No idea if it plays a role at all obviously but just FYI.
 
Not the biggest fan of team total unders but this is the week I might do Ohio State under. I think my perception of their offense and the general public's is far apart and throw in that everyone and their dogs know Mich St defense blows, you get a recipe for an inflated line.

Even if East Landfill (love it) falls behind by 14, they should still be running clock and trying to move chains. Clock should run, think the narrative should fire up the pass D of Sparty for likely their best game of the season. If so, a great fade next week.
 
Does everyone have a grasp on what might got into pass D rating? I use cfbstats.com a lot.

It is common knowledge Michigan State pass D is pretty susceptible through the air. I did not know exactly until I heard it just now that in terms of yards allowed, MSU ranks #130th, worst, dead last in the NCAA (329).

However, in terms of rating, which I assume is some combination of completion %, TD-INT ratio, ypa, cfbstats shows them at 56th nationally. In terms of Pass D rating within the Big Ten...Michigan State and Ohio State passing Ds are EQUAL! Ohio State rating 128.88 vs Michigan State 129.73 rating. Again, I can only assume the variables that go into the rating which would be pretty common passing stats.

Anyone have input on this? Are they actually fairly equal? The perception is that Michigan State pass D is just downright awful and Ohio State in general just isn't great.
 
s--k said:
Does everyone have a grasp on what might got into pass D rating? I use cfbstats.com a lot.

It is common knowledge Michigan State pass D is pretty susceptible through the air. I did not know exactly until I heard it just now that in terms of yards allowed, MSU ranks #130th, worst, dead last in the NCAA (329).

However, in terms of rating, which I assume is some combination of completion %, TD-INT ratio, ypa, cfbstats shows them at 56th nationally. In terms of Pass D rating within the Big Ten...Michigan State and Ohio State passing Ds are EQUAL! Ohio State rating 128.88 vs Michigan State 129.73 rating. Again, I can only assume the variables that go into the rating which would be pretty common passing stats.

Anyone have input on this? Are they actually fairly equal? The perception is that Michigan State pass D is just downright awful and Ohio State in general just isn't great.
Click to expand...
To the last paragraph, I don’t have numbers just my eyes and reads. That’s pretty much what I see, Ohio St CBs have been very mid for that program. I’ve seen less of Sparty but every B10 guy in here seems to agree that it isn’t a great pass D
 
M.W. said:
Lol. No. Just want some advice from y’all. Badgers have been good to me recently.
Click to expand...
Well, in 17-19 these two teams scored 65-58-55 (not in order) so that shows me the NU offense can do a few things vs historically solid to very good Badger defenses.

Wisconsin has gotten better and better each week since the UM blowout. They are really coming along in typical Wisky fashion. As Cub said, big injury there and something seems to happen each game vs quality opponents that prevents that 'big' NU win.

No opinion on any bets here, although I'd expect Wisky to win.
 
brewers888 said:
Poor Michigan fans having already conceeded the Ohio State game.
Click to expand...
Not conceding but I think now is the time to grab a number on that game IF you like that side.

My guess is that the line closes closer to 10 than it would 6... but we shall see...

With the GOY lines, in comparison here, now is the time to play it (I believe).
 
pressitup said:
Ohio State is 0-7 ATS (L7G) before playing Michigan (win pct. 100 percent, + 7 units, ROI 90.9 percent, trend grade 86)
Click to expand...
I decided to look back at these games... no spreads here are the finals...


2019 - 28-17 vs PSU
2018 - 52-51 @Maryland
2017 - 52-24 vs Illinois
2016 - 17-16 @ MSU
2015 - 14-17 vs MSU
2014 - 42-27 vs Indiana
2013 - 42-14 vs Indiana


Okay, now some personal thoughts there...

The Maryland game was that season where that defense couldn't stop much at all. Pegram(sp) had a wide open guy 4 feet away for the 2pt in OT and somehow couldn't complete it. This was CUM's last season.

Speaking of Coach Meyer...I always found him to be conservative the week before... The 17-16 win at a 3-9 MSU team in 2016 really illustrates that. I watched this one in full, and with some bets on the game was quite irritated. He was so conservative and was running the play clock down to 0 quite a bit. He nearly had it bite him in the ass.

The only loss here was the 2015 game at the shoe vs MSU with a backup Spartan QB. This game was played in a torrential downpour and somehow Zeke only had 12 carries for 33 yards. This was another baffling game(I think most OSU fans would agree) as far as how it was managed.

We have one Ryan Day game in here and it was versus a very good PSU team. So, we don't really know how he will attack these games in the future. I have seen prior evidence at other times in the season that he will not hold back.
 
s--k said:
What did I hear, Lia got called for 3 intentional groundings for Maryland last week? He just runs backwards and heaves it away. Wonder what their QB pressure allowed is?
Click to expand...
Speaking of Taulia... he has passed for...

350
371
419

His last 3 games...

And this team has major injuries at receiver...

And they do not run much...
 
twinkie13 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1461069354787872774
Click to expand...

This probably deserves its own thread (or in coaching carousel thread) but this is absolutely wild...

Now, I had heard that he was maybe using LSU as leverage (and 9 mill a year was in play down there) but the amount of time on this deal is crazy.

If you haven't looked into this in full... this contract is going to be funded by boosters. The notable one is Ishbia... he was a bench warmer on Izzo's national championship team and is now a billionaire taking over for his dad at United Wholesale Mortgage. This is quite a precedent being set for the future with this contract.

I understand MSU trying to lock up a guy now that is in demand with the season they are having but man.... this is gonna look interesting down the road...

I'm anxiousy awaiting how MSU handles Izzo with this.

As far as CFB goes... a guy like Lincoln now knows he can get WHATEVER the heck he wants.
 
Oh, for capping purposes...

Ya think Ryan Day doesn't see this and have a bit more motivation this weekend to maybe score a bit more?
 
B.A.R. said:
I decided to look back at these games... no spreads here are the finals...


2019 - 28-17 vs PSU
2018 - 52-51 @Maryland
2017 - 52-24 vs Illinois
2016 - 17-16 @ MSU
2015 - 14-17 vs MSU
2014 - 42-27 vs Indiana
2013 - 42-14 vs Indiana


Okay, now some personal thoughts there...

The Maryland game was that season where that defense couldn't stop much at all. Pegram(sp) had a wide open guy 4 feet away for the 2pt in OT and somehow couldn't complete it. This was CUM's last season.

Speaking of Coach Meyer...I always found him to be conservative the week before... The 17-16 win at a 3-9 MSU team in 2016 really illustrates that. I watched this one in full, and with some bets on the game was quite irritated. He was so conservative and was running the play clock down to 0 quite a bit. He nearly had it bite him in the ass.

The only loss here was the 2015 game at the shoe vs MSU with a backup Spartan QB. This game was played in a torrential downpour and somehow Zeke only had 12 carries for 33 yards. This was another baffling game(I think most OSU fans would agree) as far as how it was managed.

We have one Ryan Day game in here and it was versus a very good PSU team. So, we don't really know how he will attack these games in the future. I have seen prior evidence at other times in the season that he will not hold back.
Click to expand...
Some large tariffs.

Nov 23, 2019 OSU 28 - PSU 17 Week 13 L -20 U 58.0

Nov 17, 2018 MD51 - OSU 52 (OT) Week 12 L -13.5 O 60.5

Nov 18, 2017 OSU 52 - ILL 14 Week 12 L -41 O 54.0

Nov 19, 2016 MSU16 - OSU 17 Week 12 L -20.5 U 50.0

Nov 21, 2015 OSU14 - MSU 17 Week 12 L -14.5 U 53.5

Nov 22, 2014 OSU 42 - IND 27 Week 13 L -36.5 O 66.5

Nov 23, 2013 OSU 42 - IND 14 Week 13 L -33.5 U 80.5
 
bull said:
My Saturday slate includes Minny -7, Nwestern +11, and Rutgers +18.
I’ll leave the higher profile games to others
Click to expand...

dunno how i just noticed the gophers/hoosiers game, holy shit i must be crazy cause minny-7 feels really easy which means i gotta be missing something, dunno what it is tho? im with ya, ill pay to lose this one.
 
B.A.R. said:
This probably deserves its own thread (or in coaching carousel thread) but this is absolutely wild...

Now, I had heard that he was maybe using LSU as leverage (and 9 mill a year was in play down there) but the amount of time on this deal is crazy.

If you haven't looked into this in full... this contract is going to be funded by boosters. The notable one is Ishbia... he was a bench warmer on Izzo's national championship team and is now a billionaire taking over for his dad at United Wholesale Mortgage. This is quite a precedent being set for the future with this contract.

I understand MSU trying to lock up a guy now that is in demand with the season they are having but man.... this is gonna look interesting down the road...

I'm anxiousy awaiting how MSU handles Izzo with this.

As far as CFB goes... a guy like Lincoln now knows he can get WHATEVER the heck he wants.
Click to expand...

seems like sparty buying their way into the big boy club, kinda the way ducks did with nike money!! i dont see how it isnt a great move for them? i can understand a michigan fan maybe hoping things dont work out! lol. soon kids who go there will have all kinds of nil money smacking them in the face!!!
 
It seems so very risky to spend that kind of money when Tucker's HC career is so short. The money is just ridiculous in this sport but it's there and people spend it, they even spend it when it isn't there.

Size of contract aside, if they lost him and having to start all over would be devastating. Getting into one of your those 3rd coach in 4 years things needs to be avoided. We all know how bad shape Dantonio left that team. It's a near miracle they've rebounded so quick.
 
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