BIG Week 10...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Hi all,

Sorry for being late getting this up but I have been in the weeds most of the weekend into yesterday and also fighting off a bit of a cold right now (energy lacking). I also missed 99% of a Saturday of college football, which just felt weird. This included the in-state matchup, but we'll get to that shortly... as far as last weeks review, I will just stick with the one game as I have no idea on the others other than Ohio State sent film to the league about the holdings...

I spent a bit of time on the MSU and UM game in the learning thread but I will revisit a bit. I don't expect all thoughts to be popular, but it is what it is. For the record, I saw the first few drives live and listened to the rest of the 1st half on the radio and missed the rest of the game...

Lets talk Cade first. The guy got beat up in this game and played his heart out. He had 406 yards of total offense, Michigan State had 395 TOTAL yards in the game. The guy played up to some flashes he showed last year. Granted, this Michigan State back 7 is NOT good guys. We knew that they could be had back there, and they were for the most part. A lot of that performance was on Cade, a lot is due to that defense.

I'll go to the end of the 1H bullshit now. That simply cannot happen, ever. You cannot overturn a call without conclusive evidence. That was highway robbery and the Big Ten quietly came out and apologized tonight for making the wrong call. Too little, too late. The Hatrbaugh teams get such shitty treatment from the refs. This was one of 7-8 calls/reviews in this game that were not correct. That simply sucks and this has went on for awhile now. Unless we play Nebraska each week, there will be a chance of having something ridiculous called in one of our games against us. Oh well...

Now, I still would rate Michigan as the better team coming out of this game. They had this thing basically won in the late 3rd quarter and controlled things most of the game. But, that isn't to discredit Sparty. They made play after play to win the game on offense and that's their bread and butter. Michigan lost this game due to mistakes and the majority of those were defensively. McDonald had his lunch handed to him all game. The whole substitution bulllshit was obviously spotted on film and they took advantage continually. Also, Jim has to call some timeouts there on the 1st half ones and get things settled down.

Corum had his worst game all year... the dropped pass on 2nd possession... ouch. Also, he was the culprit on the 2nd JJ fumble in the 4th.

Michigan continues to kick FG's. You simply gotta run better plays in the RZ.

Big win for MSU. They will get torched in a few weeks vs Ohio State but things set up pretty nice for a heckuva bowl game. Transfer Portal FTW.

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As far as the rest of the UM season.. no reason to fall apart now. This is the most cohesive team they have had in a few years and they held a meeting right after the game to talk about the rest of the season etc. Take care of business vs the shit teams, and get a big win at Pen State and this season is a damn solid success... remember... many said 7-5 at best and others said maybe even worse. Good news is FINALLY on the way with regards to NIL. Now, if they could ever accept players via the portal, that would be amazing. MSU had two players that played Saturday that wanted to come to UM this past year but couldn't transfer credits. That sucks.

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Okay, we start the November stretch.

Indiana and Michigan got the ole 6 day heads up for a night game in Ann Arbor. I would not expect a crazy crowd like the Washington game. This is a different time of year and this is a hangover week. At least the weather looks very nice for this time of year. Both QB's will play, as Cade is pretty banged up. This has the feel of the 27-10 type of game. Michigan needs to shake it off early so they don't get into one of those sluggish games they have against IU in the past.

Purdue hosting Sparty is interesting. We have seen Nebraska and Indiana basically shut down the MSU offense for long periods of time. We have seen WKU and UM pass all over them. Purdue needs a bit of both to get the win here you would think. Will Michigan State be hungover here? We'll see. Everything is right there in front of them if they can get this win.

Bucks head to Nebraska... you gotta expect them to get the offense back into gear here...I'll looks at TT's here once again weather dependent...

Penn State is in basically a must win at Maryland. The injury to Clifford took a once promising season to the brink of disaster. I don't know how healthy he really is? Maryland is Maryland... they suck later in the year. I'd expect the PSU defense to force some turnovers here. Pretty big number to cover, but attainable with a solid Clifford.

No interest in betting anything in the other 3....

Discuss away!
 
I know this a crazy idea but maybe Harbaugh should try being a little more pleasant to ppl (aka not a jerk), or I know this far fetched but maybe he could try being nice! Or not, but refs are ppl too and if he wants to be unlikeable there a good chance they never give his squad any calls. Kinda shitty but probably a reality of life.

I’m sure it annoying but doesn’t sparty often win this game when you could argue they were outplayed? Good news for ya’ll is the disgusting committee wants all sec and big10 teams in the playoff so despite that loss id say where they ranked them says everything still in front of Michigan if they can beat that one team they never do and win the big10! I dunno how it would work with sparty tho? Would ya’ll need not only to beat osu and osu beat sparty but then sparty would still need another loss?
 
2daBank said:
I’m sure it annoying but doesn’t sparty often win this game when you could argue they were outplayed?
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They do. We sometimes see things games that way, I do. However, sometimes when we do so we overlook things like is their red zone D good, or did the other team not execute or call the right plays? Are turnovers forced or are they simply gained by other team's mistakes? What about hidden yardage in kick and punt returns, doesn't show up in total yards and can massively impact games in field position and scores obviously.

I might not say they have been outplayed a bunch, because they have done some of the other things that are hard to value. I would say they haven't been as impressive as their record on occasion. I'd just say things like they only beat Indiana by 5 points. Ohio State beat them by 47. They trailed Michigan by 16 before coming back. They didn't gain a single first down in the 2nd H vs Nebraska and only tied it on some missed assignments on the punt return TD. But then again, MSU made those things happen to win.

So it is a little of both.

I can very much understand why the playoff committee ranked them ahead of Ohio State at this point. Thankfully they play eachother and we won't have to speculate about this or that. I also wouldn't tell anyone who has Ohio State ahead of MSU that they are wrong.
 
ABC gives the nation the pleasure of witnessing the winless vs Power 5 team Indiana Hoosiers vs Ohio State. Now Fox knows the national audience hasn't had enough Hoosier greatness and picks it for the marque primetime spot. Thank you. If there is one thing college football needs for more national exposure it is this Hoosier football team. Ha! Now watch that hapless bunch put on a good game.
 
2daBank said:
I know this a crazy idea but maybe Harbaugh should try being a little more pleasant to ppl (aka not a jerk), or I know this far fetched but maybe he could try being nice! Or not, but refs are ppl too and if he wants to be unlikeable there a good chance they never give his squad any calls. Kinda shitty but probably a reality of life.

I’m sure it annoying but doesn’t sparty often win this game when you could argue they were outplayed? Good news for ya’ll is the disgusting committee wants all sec and big10 teams in the playoff so despite that loss id say where they ranked them says everything still in front of Michigan if they can beat that one team they never do and win the big10! I dunno how it would work with sparty tho? Would ya’ll need not only to beat osu and osu beat sparty but then sparty would still need another loss?
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Yeah, he spent 2017-2020 being very quiet on the sidelines. That affected his coaching. There are a myriad of reasons why he did that but one was definitely to hopefully stop getting fucked by the b10 officials.
 
are we still gonna get 100% effort from Nebraska or was last week the final straw to where they pack it in?
 
PaintCrew said:
Quietly I think this is a pretty solid matchup (similar to Iowa) for Purdue if you ask me but i'm not saying too much about it for superstitious purposes
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im a little worried (for purdue) that it kinda more like wiscy for them on the defensive side. sparty run game is much better than iowa's is. imo better than wiscy also and they gashed your boys on the ground..of course purdue should have way more success on offense than they did vs wiscy.
 
2daBank said:
im a little worried (for purdue) that it kinda more like wiscy for them on the defensive side. sparty run game is much better than iowa's is. imo better than wiscy also and they gashed your boys on the ground..of course purdue should have way more success on offense than they did vs wiscy.
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Maybe I need to dig deeper as I see it quite a bit differently. In particular on style of the front of MSU's O'line vs Wisky's. I honestly don't think they remotely compare in physicality. Nebraska contained that line + Walker....Indy contained that line + Walker....Purdue's front at a minimum is built similar to those and will have an extra focus on stopping the run. All of the big running outputs prior to UM came against the Western Kentucky/NW/Rutgers types of the NCAA.

I need to dig deeper into the UM/MSU results as that's the outlier vs the rest of the defenses they've faced (Sparty did nothing on the ground vs the only comparable fronts to Purdue's (Indy/Nebraska) up until Michigan) but the only O'line I have comparable to Wisky's in the B1G is OSU.

It's possible....Walker is truly elite but I don't think he + the sparty O'line compares to the combo of the Wisky line + backs. A lot more to dig into obviously and I might not touch it regardless but good vibes early.
 
I do for sure agree though that line (Sparty's) is better up front than Iowa's. I'm not sure though any better than the ND's or Minny O'lines up front though.
 
And the bigger plus I'm looking at is Wisky I think is a legit Top 5 elite D and brought some master class mix and match blitzes that confused Purdue's old statue of a QB for the first time I've seen it happen. Their secondary IMO has a lot of weaknesses vs what Purdue has faced the past few weeks and the type of attack Purdue will bring. Honestly probably comes down per normal to Purdue shooting themselves in the foot (or not) in the red zone.
 
PaintCrew said:
And the bigger plus I'm looking at is Wisky I think is a legit Top 5 elite D and brought some master class mix and match blitzes that confused Purdue's old statue of a QB for the first time I've seen it happen. Their secondary IMO has a lot of weaknesses vs what Purdue has faced the past few weeks and the type of attack Purdue will bring. Honestly probably comes down per normal to Purdue shooting themselves in the foot (or not) in the red zone.
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oh i have no doubt on the offensive side the ball life be way easier for purdue this week. i think spary oline grades out pretty similarly to wiscy in run blocking metrics but ill check again, i was thinking that plus walker being better than any back wiscy has to offer spells trouble but maybe im wrong on that. ill have to look closer at teams you brought up that slowed down walker.
 
2daBank said:
oh i have no doubt on the offensive side the ball life be way easier for purdue this week. i think spary oline grades out pretty similarly to wiscy in run blocking metrics but ill check again, i was thinking that plus walker being better than any back wiscy has to offer spells trouble but maybe im wrong on that. ill have to look closer at teams you brought up that slowed down walker.
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Good thoughts for sure...I'm still digging. I will say though if Walker + that O'Line is better than Wisky than I am capping this game WAY WAY off. I'll keep digging a bit as well. I would also focus on those Wisky backs for the last few games. They have hit their stride and are incredibly talented IMO. Purdue's defensive numbers would've looked wildly different against Wisky if not for some great broken tackles in the backfield by both the backs...they earned all those yards though that's for sure.
 
PaintCrew said:
Good thoughts for sure...I'm still digging. I will say though if Walker + that O'Line is better than Wisky than I am capping this game WAY WAY off. I'll keep digging a bit as well. I would also focus on those Wisky backs for the last few games. They have hit their stride and are incredibly talented IMO. Purdue's defensive numbers would've looked wildly different against Wisky if not for some great broken tackles in the backfield by both the backs...they earned all those yards though that's for sure.
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I have no doubt you watch way more big10 than me so I could certainly be the one way off! Ive done better with it this year but it ain’t ever been a conf I was super strong with. I could just be selling wiscy way short, god knows I can’t cap their games for shit. I would say I’d think teams can sell out to stop wiscy rushing attack way more than they can sparty since they have a pass game that can hurt ya. I passed on sparty vs Indy and this does look kinda similar so prob be a good idea to stay away here also. Sparty wax’s really fortunate to cover that game and Purdue offense I have no doubt will be much better than Hoosiers was.
 
Outside of the Rutgers game I’ve been on the right side of every Sparty spread (totals are a different story lol). The nailor injury is really massive imo...really only need to worry about Reed and miss that field stretching speed, can load up the box potentially. Thorne thrives on PA. If you get good O’Connell here I think Purdue wins
 
I‘m having trouble squaring in my mind: the running lanes that Sparty o-line was able to open up for Herschel between the tackles against Mich with the amount of times Herschel was bottled up by the Hoosier front seven.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I‘m having trouble squaring in my mind: the running lanes that Sparty o-line was able to open up for Herschel between the tackles against Mich with the amount of times Herschel was bottled up by the Hoosier front seven.
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Could have just been one of those days. Hoosiers were playing like it was their last stand for the season and sparty was walking around all week being told how great they were. It happens a lot in football, motivation and desire often beat talent on a given day.
 
Not like Hoosiers defense isn’t talented. They held psu to 24. Think the defense is just demoralized at this point after trying to carry team all year. After the bye and record being what it was I think sparty got the absolute best Hoosiers defense could play on that day. I think it fair to say Hoosiers d at its best can be pretty darn good.
 
2daBank said:
Not like Hoosiers defense isn’t talented. They held psu to 24. Think the defense is just demoralized at this point after trying to carry team all year. After the bye and record being what it was I think sparty got the absolute best Hoosiers defense could play on that day. I think it fair to say Hoosiers d at its best can be pretty darn good.
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PSU run game has been awful all year tho and Clifford isn‘t anything special. I don‘t think holding them to 24 is impressive at all.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
PSU run game has been awful all year tho and Clifford isn‘t anything special. I don‘t think holding them to 24 is impressive at all.
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Yea their run game ass, they thew all over osu tho! That remade and improved osu d! Ok prob a bad example, just saying Hoosiers d was pretty well thought of and I think sparty caught them in a spot where they got everything they had.
 
survive&advance said:
Outside of the Rutgers game I’ve been on the right side of every Sparty spread (totals are a different story lol). The nailor injury is really massive imo...really only need to worry about Reed and miss that field stretching speed, can load up the box potentially. Thorne thrives on PA. If you get good O’Connell here I think Purdue wins
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I don’t have a real good feel how it gonna go, I think generally when a team like sparty keeps seeing these spreads inviting action on them eventually the bubble burst. Maybe not, they could just be having one those magical seasons and majority keeps winning with them, that happens occasionally. I look at the gophers and wiscy games for Purdue and it makes me not wanna play them, but I understand the points for them or against sparty also. How did Purdue throw for almost 400 yards on minny and only score 13 points? Gotta think they are def gonna have success throwing the ball vs sparty but will it lead to points? I need to know what happened in the gophers game?
 
Sparty has managed to win several games where they gave up 370+ in the air. I could see Purdue throwing for that kind of yardage here but does that mean they win? I dunno
 
PaintCrew said:
Maybe I need to dig deeper as I see it quite a bit differently. In particular on style of the front of MSU's O'line vs Wisky's. I honestly don't think they remotely compare in physicality. Nebraska contained that line + Walker....Indy contained that line + Walker....Purdue's front at a minimum is built similar to those and will have an extra focus on stopping the run. All of the big running outputs prior to UM came against the Western Kentucky/NW/Rutgers types of the NCAA.

I need to dig deeper into the UM/MSU results as that's the outlier vs the rest of the defenses they've faced (Sparty did nothing on the ground vs the only comparable fronts to Purdue's (Indy/Nebraska) up until Michigan) but the only O'line I have comparable to Wisky's in the B1G is OSU.

It's possible....Walker is truly elite but I don't think he + the sparty O'line compares to the combo of the Wisky line + backs. A lot more to dig into obviously and I might not touch it regardless but good vibes early.
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all these transfers tucker brought in dude needs to go get some tackles in the portal. Holding this offense back in a major way. They need to be leaving a back or tight end to chip/max protect every time. They don't do it and it's gonna get them beat. Sad because they have so much talent everywhere else.

Sparty pass d seems rather pedestrian as well. I can see purdue hitting 5 yard flats all day long.
 
EL CAPO said:
all these transfers tucker brought in dude needs to go get some tackles in the portal. Holding this offense back in a major way. They need to be leaving a back or tight end to chip/max protect every time. They don't do it and it's gonna get them beat. Sad because they have so much talent everywhere else.

Sparty pass d seems rather pedestrian as well. I can see purdue hitting 5 yard flats all day long.
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They gonna throw for a ton of yards I have no doubt. How did they only score 13 vs gophers with the yardage totals they had?
 
2daBank said:
Sparty has managed to win several games where they gave up 370+ in the air. I could see Purdue throwing for that kind of yardage here but does that mean they win? I dunno
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I think they sold out to stop the run last week. They were fine with letting Michigan pass on em but then clamped down in the redzone
 
survive&advance said:
I think they sold out to stop the run last week. They were fine with letting Michigan pass on em but then clamped down in the redzone
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survive&advance said:
I think they sold out to stop the run last week. They were fine with letting Michigan pass on em but then clamped down in the redzone
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I believe you are correct but Michigan wasn’t the 1st (or even 2nd) team that has lit them up thru the air. I think they have issues in secondary beyond just selling out last week. King who was awful this year threw for 388, Wku threw for damn near 500 (they throw on everyone but this total was high for even them), Martinez had a pretty good day, even NW threw for way more than typical but that was mostly garbage time. Anyways I think they can be had thru air even if Purdue doesn’t have a run game to worry bout.,
 
I think it is gonna prob come down to red zone ad Purdue will pile up yards between the 20s but w no run game might be tough to punch it in when windows are tight.
 
2daBank said:
I believe you are correct but Michigan wasn’t the 1st (or even 2nd) team that has lit them up thru the air. I think they have issues in secondary beyond just selling out last week. King who was awful this year threw for 388, Wku threw for damn near 500 (they throw on everyone but this total was high for even them), Martinez had a pretty good day, even NW threw for way more than typical but that was mostly garbage time. Anyways I think they can be had thru air even if Purdue doesn’t have a run game to worry bout.,
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Oh no doubt. No disagreement from me there whatsoever. Outside of maybe 5-10 defenses, I believe anyone can be thrown on in college for that matter
 
2daBank said:
They gonna throw for a ton of yards I have no doubt. How did they only score 13 vs gophers with the yardage totals they had?
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There was bad weather and rain. Missed kicks, poor field position leading to long drives and those yards, QB-WR not on same page sometimes, turnovers...this is Purdue football. One thing they are good at that they don't want credit for is losing turnovers.
 
s--k said:
There was bad weather and rain. Missed kicks, poor field position leading to long drives and those yards, QB-WR not on same page sometimes, turnovers...this is Purdue football. One thing they are good at that they don't want credit for is losing turnovers.
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ah, thought there had to be something to it, they had a lot of yards for 13 points! they even had a decent rushing day!! something they would like to be known for, i heard somewhere they have more wins as unranked team vs top 5 teams than anyone over some period of time i cant recall., lol. think that was the stat. i was pretty surprised when i heard it.
 
You can definitely throw on msu, but can you score inside the red zone on them?

Team has the luck at the end of the rainbow this year.
 
HUNT said:
You can definitely throw on msu, but can you score inside the red zone on them?

Team has the luck at the end of the rainbow this year.
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i think i found a solution to this and a way to stop racking my brain going back and forth on this game!! im playing O'Connell over 266.5 passing yards, that seems like a winner to me regardless of outcome!!
 
2daBank said:
i think i found a solution to this and a way to stop racking my brain going back and forth on this game!! im playing O'Connell over 266.5 passing yards, that seems like a winner to me regardless of outcome!!
Click to expand...

Bell should have well over 100+ receiving yards too. Msu dinged up at the secondary spot.
 
Am I the only one who thinks Penn St -10 is ridiculous? This game is a tossup to me. Maryland won last week so not sure I agree they are in their traditional late season decline. Are losses @ Ohio State @ Minnesota and home to Iowa that bad? Penn St just lost @Ohio St, home to Illinois and @Iowa. Penn St has the more impressive wins, but Maryland is 4-1 at home and they have to be much happier to be in the position they’re in at the moment than Penn State. Scary thing is these teams like to run it up on each other, but I’m taking points and ML…
 
C-MAN said:
Am I the only one who thinks Penn St -10 is ridiculous? This game is a tossup to me. Maryland won last week so not sure I agree they are in their traditional late season decline. Are losses @ Ohio State @ Minnesota and home to Iowa that bad? Penn St just lost @Ohio St, home to Illinois and @Iowa. Penn St has the more impressive wins, but Maryland is 4-1 at home and they have to be much happier to be in the position they’re in at the moment than Penn State. Scary thing is these teams like to run it up on each other, but I’m taking points and ML…
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Maryland can definitely win. They won last year. So that aspect is worrisome that it should provide some better motivation for Penn State this week than they might otherwise have amidst a losing streak and off the OSU game.

I do think for Maryland losses at OSU at Minny and home vs Iowa are that bad just because of the fashion in which they lost them. Totally noncompete and dominated. So that is bad I think when you put the scores in context.

Still, Penn State is reeling right now. The Maryland D gives Nits a chance to right the ship is a concern. I will have Maryland today though.
 
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