Big Alimony 2015-2016 NBA Thread...

In the past 15 seasons, there has been only one 4-OT game (Jazz at Hawks in 2012, Hawks won 139-133).

In the following game, the Jazz won and covered away on 0 day's rest at the Nets (spread was a pick 'em).

The Hawks lost and failed to cover away at the Bucks on 1 day's rest (spread was +2).

So in the past 15 seasons, teams off a 4-OT game and playing away are 1-1 ATS (50%).

Tiny sample basically worth nothing.
 
In that game what was the rest situation of the team going in? My mind is not closed but the revenge feature seems huge to me.
 
By the way, everyone does know Smith is referring this game. Mr destroy all home favorites
 
I'm going to smack the local around with BAR's dick on this play. Sorry, that was kind of crude.
 
The play defied all my trends, lady luck was smiling on you tonight, my friend.
 
B.A.R. said:
Im not kidding Divol,very curious about 80% off 4 OTs. That is mind boggling. At same point who knows off small sample size.
Click to expand...


You're right, 4OT don't happen very often, so I went and looked at closest options. Teams that played 3OT or more and lost and had to play B2B. The number was 5 - 1, with 5 games winning streak, that ended tonight. As em mentioned, the only time it happened before in the last 15 years, Jazz won over the Nets and btw, the line for that game was also PK.
Those all are very small samples, so to see if this is a logical trend or not, I decided to cast a bit wider net. In the last 5 season, 12 times, teams played 2 overtimes or more, lost and had to play in B2B spot on the road. They lost ATS only twice.
Yes, not huge samples, but if the argument is that teams playing big minutes the night before, will melt down, in previous cases, it just wasn't the case, in cases where the team playing was the one that lost in the OT game.

Obviously 3OT are not the same as 4OT, but it's very very very close as far as fatigue and state of mind imo. 2OT obviously different story, but it shows that the trend and the way of thinking was correct stats wise.

Congrats on the win!
 
You can't just look at other 4OT games and compare it to what this was. The Bulls are offensively challenged as a team. The only true theat they have is Butler. Rose cannot play well without rest as it is and then you add in that extremely high usage game.... The Bulls are a very odd team IMO

nice job bar
 
Portland 0-3 so far on their trip...


Keep tracking and be ready for the 27th...


Keep track of Kings too, although they will be well rested...
 
B.A.R. said:
Good research Divol. It's still mind blowing but ya know lol...thanks nbafan
Click to expand...

I don't know about mind blowing... I was under the impression, that teams that lose in a game that went to several OT's and lose, should feel rather angry. At themselves, at the refs and so on. Multiple OT's means that they had a shot at winning the game, no doubt and blown it and have a chance to rectify it immediately and won't blow this chance and usually, this is the case...
 
divol said:
I don't know about mind blowing... I was under the impression, that teams that lose in a game that went to several OT's and lose, should feel rather angry. At themselves, at the refs and so on. Multiple OT's means that they had a shot at winning the game, no doubt and blown it and have a chance to rectify it immediately and won't blow this chance and usually, this is the case...
Click to expand...


when you have a very late night at work and have to take a flight afterwards aren't you exhausted the next day?


These games are work. Very few games throughout the season do players actually go above and beyond
 
Exactly... not many games and off a painful loss, is a spot, I believe and numbers support it, where players do care to win.
 
B.A.R. said:
Portland 0-3 so far on their trip...


Keep tracking and be ready for the 27th...


Keep track of Kings too, although they will be well rested...
Click to expand...

Lost again...

Lillard says a few games...shall see...

Pelicans on Wednesday...love to see an upset...or obv at home to Cavs...
 
B.A.R. said:
Lost again...

Lillard says a few games...shall see...

Pelicans on Wednesday...love to see an upset...or obv at home to Cavs...
Click to expand...

The problem is that this B2B set will be after Portland had two days of rest and good chance that Lillard and McCollum will have almost a week of rest, unless they surprise us and play tonight...
 
divol said:
I hope you aren't talking about Phoenix playing in Denver, in B2B spot off a home game, after playing on the road the game before the home game... teams are 64% ATS in this spot:
http://killersports.com/nba/query?s...0+and+p:H+and+pp:A+and+A&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Though that trend was strong two decades ago and not so strong now, but not sure I would hurry up and bet the opposite...
Click to expand...

No that's not what I'm referring to. First off.... When in the near future do the Suns play @ Denver? I don't look ahead all the way to March lol

Im talking about the Cavs playing in Denver 4th game in 5 nights with the b2b in Denver being the last of the 4 game Holiday RT. It has POY written all over it. Hoping the Cavs find a way to beat the Warriors lol
 
nbafan88 said:
No that's not what I'm referring to. First off.... When in the near future do the Suns play @ Denver? I don't look ahead all the way to March lol

Im talking about the Cavs playing in Denver 4th game in 5 nights with the b2b in Denver being the last of the 4 game Holiday RT. It has POY written all over it. Hoping the Cavs find a way to beat the Warriors lol
Click to expand...
:shake:
 
Blazers swept on roadie.

Really hoping they bring something for Cavs...might be difference from 2 to 3 unit play.
 
B.A.R. said:
I would love to. I forgot I'll be out of town the previous Friday till Tuesday night. I am down if possible. I'll be checking soon.
Click to expand...

And at worst, there are a few more occasions this season...we definitely doing it though.
 
If not that, Friday April 8th against Washington.

One other Friday I saw coincides with NCAA Tourney or conference championships...
 
Merry XMAS SEMCON.

There are several games on the schedule that I can get 4 free tickets from work for. Tickets aren't great but they are free and the palace is small. I'll post the schedule in here one day
 
Waiting for the line to settle.

Queens got some bad numbers off a straight-up win though.

4-16 ATS off a SU dog win last 20 (2-11 ATS when favored).
 
It is at 8 right now for me...I'll wait and see if goes down but figure this thing closes 9 to 9.5...
 
I doubt it goes past 8.5... If Lillard will play, it should go back to 7, maybe 6.5 even maybe...
 
Turnovers unreal, just looking at shooting percentages the Kings should be up by 15. Bout to hit a 2nd half line.
 
Should be a tale of two halves.

Expect the scheduling to affect the Blazers late 3rd, 4th quarters.

We shall see.
 
emkee said:
Should be a tale of two halves.

Expect the scheduling to affect the Blazers late 3rd, 4th quarters.

We shall see.
Click to expand...
Same here, at least I hope so. Looking at the stat line, CJ McCollum is the only hot hand. Hopefully he calms down in the second half.
 
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