Betting Baseball

GameHunter · Mar 28, 2013

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[FONT=&amp]WHY BETTING UNDERDOGS IN BASEBALL IS DIFFERENT FROM ANY OTHER SPORT.[/FONT][FONT=&amp]

There are several different approaches and strategies to handicapping baseball, but the most fundamental and obvious starting point is one that is taken completely for granted. Baseball is quite unique when it comes to betting because the gaps between the best and worst teams are far closer than in any other sport. Let's look at the other major betting sports.

In the NFL this season, Seattle and Denver were both 13-3, winning 81.25% of their games while the worst team was Houston at 2-14, winning just 12.25% of the time. [/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]In the NBA this season, as of March 29th, San Antonio is currently 57-16, winning 78.1% of their games while the worst team in the NBA is the Milwaukee Bucks at 14-59, winning 19.2% of the time.

In NCAA Basketball this season, Wichita State was 35-1 this season with a 97.2% winning percentage. The "Board" team with the worst record in the country was Cornell at 2-26, winning 7.1% of the time.

In NCAA Football, Florida State finished undefeated at 14-0 (100%) while Miami-Ohio and Georgia State both finished 0-12 (0%).

Meanwhile, the 2013 baseball season was not that much different than any other baseball season. The Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals both had the best record in the majors last season at 97-65 (59.9%) while the worst team in the majors was the Houston Astros at 51-111 (31.5%). These records are nowhere close to the best and worst records of any other major betting sport.

So there you have it:

Sport Best Worst
NFL 81.25% 12.25%
NBA 78.10% 19.20%
NCAAB 97.20% 7.10%
NCAAF 100.0% 0.00%
MLB 59.90% 31.50%

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]While it seems like an obvious point, it is often overlooked that the worst team in baseball still wins at a percentage well in excess of the worst team in any sport. Taking it a step further, based on last season's numbers, the worst team in baseball won almost 1 out of 3 games, which means on average, they will still win at least one game every series. Let's face it, in NCAAB, if you put Wichita State up against Cornell 100 times this season, Wichita State would probably win 95% of the time. In the NFL, if Denver or Seattle played Houston 10 times, they'd probably win at least 9. In the NBA, if the Spurs played the Bucks 100 times, they’d probably win close to 90% of the time. In college football, if Florida State faced Miami-Ohio or Georgia State 10 times, they would win all 10 games. It's nothing like that in baseball.

In 2013, the worst team in the majors, the Houston Astros beat the best team in their division, the 96-66 Oakland A's two out of three in August. The Boston Red Sox were beaten 4 out of 6 times by the 66-96 Minnesota Twins and 2 out of 3 by the lowly 63-99 Chicago White Sox. The St. Louis Cardinals were beaten 2 out of 3 by the lowly 62-100 Miami Marlins in June and 4 Anyone can beat anyone in baseball![/FONT]

GameHunter · Mar 28, 2013

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[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]GROUP A:[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]Justin Verlander
Clayton Kershaw
Matt Cain
Steven Strasburg
Felix Hernandez
David Price
Yu Darvish
Dan Haren[/FONT][FONT=&amp]
[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]GROUP B:[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]Jeanmar Gomez
Dan Duffy
Ross Ohlendorf
Yusmeiro Petit
Zach McAllister
Patrick Corbin
Ubaldo Jiminez
Mark Buehrle[/FONT]

GameHunter · Mar 28, 2013

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[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]Let’s look at the results:[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]GROUP A[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp] Team Record Profitability 1 unit/gm[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]Justin Verlander 15-22, -23.4 Units
Clayton Kershaw 21-16, -7.3 units
Matt Cain 11-19, -14.2 units
Steven Strasburg 14-16, -8.6 units
Felix Hernandez 14-17, -8.0 units
David Price 14-14, -8.4 units
Yu Darvish 17-15, -11.3 units
Dan Haren[/FONT][FONT=&amp] 11-19, -12.5 units
[/FONT][FONT=&amp]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]Total 117-138 (46.8%) -93.7 units[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]GROUP B[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp] Team Record Profitability 1 unit/gm[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]Jeanmar Gomez 8-0, +10.3 units
Dan Duffy 5-0, +6.1 units
Ross Ohlendorf 6-1, +5.8 units
Yusmeiro Petit 6-1, +5.8 units
Zach McAllister 10-7, +7.1 units
Patrick Corbin 23-9, +11.6 units
Ubaldo Jiminez 21-11, +12.8 units
Mark Buehrle[/FONT][FONT=&amp] 19-14, +7.1 units

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]Total 98-43 (69.9%) +66.6 units[/FONT]

GameHunter · Mar 28, 2013

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[/FONT][FONT=&amp]To put things into perspective, try and think about the potential biggest one game baseball mismatch for this upcoming season. How about the Astros with their 5[SUP]th[/SUP] starter at the Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw on the mound? I make the line between -270 to -350 but for arguments sake, I will go with -350. How big of a mismatch is it really? We see some really big mismatches in other sports. In the first round of this year's NCAA Tournament, Florida was -21 against Albany. I doubt there was a money line on it but it might have been close to -10,000. In CFB, Florida State would be close to a 45 point favorite over say Miami-Ohio, which would easily be -10,000 on the moneyline if you could find such a line. The Broncos would be approximately17 point favorites at home against Houston which would give a moneyline around -2000. So is the biggest mismatch of the baseball season really that much of a mismatch when you compare it to other sports? On March 23, 2014, Stanford upset Kansas in the NCAA Tournament as a 6.5 point dog. The moneyline was approximately -350. That victory by Stanford was a greater upset (and really wasn’t that shocking) than any upset you will see in the major leagues this season. The day before, on March 22, 2014, Dayton beat Syracuse as a 8.5 point underdog at a moneyline close to -500, which is a far greater upset than any upset you will see all season in baseball.

To sum it up, too many baseball bettors shy away from dogs like they can't win when it is clear that any given underdog can beat any favorite on any given day at a rate unlike every other sport. Until people get comfortable in baseball playing underdogs on a regular basis and seeking out value, there is no chance to win betting baseball in the long run. [/FONT]

GameHunter · Mar 28, 2013

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Too many people get caught up in what a handicapper's winning percentage is in baseball and to me that just further explains to me that people do not understand betting baseball, as successful baseball handicapping is not a function of winning percentage. I would go so far as to say that if any average baseball handicapper had a gun to his head and was asked to hit 60% over the course of the season, he probably could. Simply, if a baseball bettor took every favorite of -200 or greater, he would probably hit 60%. The problem is even if you played all favorites with the average bet being a favorite of -200, at 60%, over the course of 100 plays at $100 each, you would lose $2000. At an average of -200, a handicapper would need to hit 67% to even show a negligible profit. Don't forget, the best team in baseball last season only hit at a 60.5% clip.

Taken a step further, a handicapper playing an average of -150 could hit 60%, but at 60% (about equal to the best team in baseball) he would only breakeven.

Conversely, a handicapper playing an average of +110 would only need to hit at a rate of 47.7% to breakeven. So I ask you, who is the better baseball handicapper, the 60% capper playing an average of -150 or the 48% capper playing at an average of +110? Obviously, the answer is the 48% capper as he shows a profit while the 60% capper above breakeven. The point I am driving home is winning percentage in baseball is less significant than other factors.

For those of you who followed me at Covers, you are aware I play more games than almost any other handicapper. Lord knows there were countless haters who would state that I played too many games and couldn't be successful. I respect they are entitled to their opinion, but based upon my baseball model, in 2007, I won +0.12 units per game played, so my overall profit increased by an average of 0.12 units with each game I played. That is not to say I should bet every game, but based upon my handicapping techniques, the more games that fit my personal criteria, the more profitable I was.

I played 1,172 games in 2007 and finished with a record of 626-546 (53.4%) and made a profit of +140.86 units. Let's say this season I play 1000 games at an average of +110 (slightly higher than last year). Here is what I can expect if you assume that I flat bet every game at the same amount:

Win % Unit Profit
47.7% Even
48% +8 units
49% +29 units
50% +50 units
51% +71 units
52% +92 units
53% +113 units
54% +134 units

I won't use anything above a 54% winning percentage because it just won't happen. In 2007, I hit over 53.4% and as such, had an outstanding season. Even if I don't reach that standard, at 50%, I will still make a handsome profit.[/FONT]

GameHunter · Mar 28, 2013

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It is scary to think that some baseball bettors actually play through books that offer 20 cent lines. Simply put, that is suicide. Here is a comparison of what I would expect if I averaged +110 for the season at a reduced shop like Matchbook (which is now unavailable to US players), compared to a 10 cent line which would cost me five cents per play overall (meaning I would average +105, thus the +105 column below), compared to a 20 cent line which would cost me 10 cents per play on average (meaning I would average +100, thus the +100 column below):

Win % +110 +105 +100
47.7 Even -22.15u -46u
48% +8 units -16u -40u
49% +29 units +4.5u -20u
50% +50 units +25u EVEN
51% +71 units +45.5u +20u
52% +92 units +66u +40u
53% +113 units +86.5u +60u
54% +134 units +107u +80u

By using a reduced shop like Matchbook compared to 10 cent and 20 cent shops, if I hit 50%, I earn 50 units on the season in my example, but at the 10 cent store, I would earn 25 units and at the 20 cent store, I would breakeven. These are HUGE differences. I reviewed my numbers from 2007 and had I used a reduced juice book like Matchbook and averaged a savings of 5 cents per game (that is conservative as it is closer to 8% if you are a good shopper) then I would've earned an additional 39 units that season. Unfortunately, Matchbook is no longer available and finding anything better than a dime line is near impossible, but if you are playing a twenty cent line, you have no shot to win! [/FONT]

GameHunter · Mar 28, 2013

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The key to handicapping baseball is searching for value in relation to the line. It’s very similar to a horse race. Let say I give you a racing form for a 10 horse race today at Belmont Park and the only thing I delete from the racing form is the odds of each horse. After evaluating all ten horses, you will have a perception in your mind of which horse you think has the best chance to win and you will probably be able to rate the horses in your mind from most likely to least likely to win the race. Let’s say you like the #1 horse the best, the #2 horse second best and the #3 horse third best. Does this mean you should bet the #1 horse? ABSOLUTELY NOT! You need to evaluate your perceptions in relation to the betting line. Now let’s fill in the final factor in my fictitious horse race. The odds on the #1 horse is even money, the odds on the #2 horse is 2-1 and the odds on the #3 horse is 20-1. Now there’s no doubt that the #1 horse is the most likely to win the race, however in this analysis, you would be a fool to not bet the #3 horse. Based upon these odds, the #1 horse would have to win this race one out of every two times for you to breakeven. The #2 horse would have to win the race one out of every three times for you to breakeven while the #3 horse would only need to win the race one out of 21 times for you to breakeven. In my example, if you believe the #3 horse is the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best horse in the race, then the horse you should bet on in this example is the #3 at 20-1 odds even though you feel the #1 is the most likely to win the race.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]Similarly, a bet in baseball should not necessarily be a bet on who you think will win, but rather who you think will outperform the odds and provides the best value. The most common error I see in many baseball bettors is they first choose who they think will win rather than evaluating the line. How often have we all heard someone say something along the lines of, “I love the Tigers tomorrow with Verlander and I am going to make a huge bet on them” before a line is even posted? What I am trying to state here is that there is no way to love any team until you know what the line is.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]Take for example opening full day with the Tigers hosting the Royals. It will be Justin Verlander against James Shields. A week ago, there was no way to say which team I liked because I didn’t know the line. Depending on the line, I could INVEST in the Tigers in certain circumstances or the Royals in others so it is clear my wager is not based upon who I think will necessarily win the game, but rather who based upon my handicapping, provides the best value. Said in a different way, I am shooting to determine which team I think linemakers and the general public are undervaluing based upon my techniques of handicapping. If the Tigers open up at -130 in this game, I would play the Tigers. If the Tigers open up at -190, I would invest in the Royals. The line should determine who you bet and not your opinion on a team with no consideration of the line.

I like to think of each game I handicap as based upon my research and understanding of a particular line, if the two teams in question played 100 times under the same fact pattern, how many time (what %) do I think in my mind each team would win, particularly, how many time will the underdog win. Here are the win percentages that an underdog would need to win in order to breakeven at a particular underdog line: [/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]%Win Breakeven Line
50% Even
48% +109
46% +118
44% +127
42% +138
40% +150
38% +163
36% +178
34% +194
32% +212

I highlighted the 36% and 34% marks, because that is the line where a team in this situation would have to perform at the level of the worst team in major leagues over the course of the season. When I break down each game, if I feel a team will perform better than the line, then it is worth an investment. For example, if on opening day, I believe the Royals have a 40% chance of winning in my mind, if I can get reasonable value better than +150 (say, maybe +165 or higher) then I am buying. Set in non-arithmetic terms, if I think there are factors that linemakers and typical gamblers are not factoring into the line of a particular game that I think are relevant to one side, it will often mean I believe that team will outperform the line and I will invest in them.

I have read a lot of gibberish that write-ups are tripe and just ways a poster tries to convince a reader on why to play a certain side. I view it differently. When I write games up, the write-ups were basically the relevant statistics which I saw as reasons why the side I was supporting was undervalued with respect to the line. It's not necessarily the reasons why one team will win the game, but analytical reasons why I believed the team I was betting provided better value than was seen by linemakers and the general public. [/FONT]

GameHunter · Mar 28, 2013

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ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> [FONT=&amp]Here is a random write-up I pulled from September 10, 2008:

OAKLAND +106 (L) (1.75 UNITS) - Bazooka Joe Blanton has gone from my fade list to buy list in less than 3 weeks. He has really turned things around and in his last 5 starts tossing 34 innings and allowing 29 hits, 9 runs, 1 home run and a 25:3 K:BB ratio. Last outing against the Angels on the road was a gem as after allowing 2 first inning runs he followed with 7 scoreless innings. He had a lot of movement on his pitches and was hitting his spots. Meanwhile, Horacio Ramirez might be 8-5 this season but the numbers are not impressive. In his last 9 starts he has thrown 49 innings and allowed 69 hits, 42 runs, 8 home runs and had a 24:21 K:BB ratio. The Mariners have really begun to free fall and even after yesterday's football like 14-7 win, they are 2-13 in their last 15 games. Their bullpen, which has been their strong point most of the season, has abandoned them and we should see the pen early today.

Simply stated, in this game, the things I wrote about were reasons why at +106, the A's were a solid investment in my opinion. The information included factors which I thought were relevant but not the typical information which may have been factored into the line by linemakers or the betting public and why that day the A's provided value in comparison to the line.

I am not going to get deep into my baseball handicapping techniques because it really isn't an exact science for which there is a recipe. I rely heavily on SABERMETRICS, lefty-righty matchups, ballpark trends and configurations as they relate to individual pitching styles, current form of pitchers, base running and fielding attributes, bullpen use, pitcher-hitter matchups, weather, umpires, home/road trends, managing styles, ground ball, fly ball pitching and hitting trends, injury reports, hot and cold streaks and anything else I can get my hands on. [/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]My philosophy is similar to counting cards in blackjack. All you are looking to do is swing the percentages in your favor. A good card counter swings the advantage towards himself and instead of the house having a 51/49 or 52/48 advantage, the professional card counter swings the odds to somewhere around 52/48 in his favor. By doing so, the card counter wins thousands of dollars over time, however over the course of any one hand or group of hands, he can easily lose. That is exactly what I am trying to do in baseball. With that being said, I am not the guy to follow over a short period of time as that would be no different than following me over a few random hands of blackjack.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]I have no set formula for my handicapping and each day I am not sure where my research and thoughts will lead me. I like looking deep into the numbers and for angles that I think give me a better advantage than the current line. Take for example my write-up a few season ago on the Cubs starting pitching. I have certain mental notes that I want to look closely at as the season progresses. This is just one example of the kind of things I look at:

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]Ted Lilly - A noted fly-ball pitcher. Vulnerable to the long ball. Look to fade against power hitting teams and especially when the wind blows out at Wrigley. Remember not to give him an edge against teams with strong left handed hitters, but an edge against predominantly right handed hitting lineups as ironically he is tougher against righties.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]Carlos Zambrano - Tougher on lefties. Look to fade in day games as the last three seasons he has allowed more than 1.5 earned runs per start during the day. Streaky and has faded in August the past two years. Don't fade him when he is hot and fade him when he begins to show two consecutive bad outings.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]Rich Harden - With injury concerns, Piniella will baby him. Look to fade Harden, at high prices in situations where the Cubs' bullpen is coming off of heavy recent use, as Harden will typically go 5-6 innings at best and will need to rely on the bullpen for 3-4 innings to close things out.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]Aaron Heilman - Struggles with lefties. Look to fade him against teams stacked with strong lefties like the Phillies but play him against teams with heavy right handed lineups.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]Sean Marshall - Road ERA is 1.25 runs better on than at home. He actually struggles against left handed hitters so look closely at opposing teams lineups.[/FONT]

GameHunter · Mar 28, 2013

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oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

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ontVertAlignCellWithSp/> <w

ontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/> <w

ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> [FONT=&amp]Another thing I look to do is analyze the home plate umpires after the first game of a series (in the first game of the series they aren't announced until about 30 minutes before the game but after the first game, just look who the first base umpire was the day before, as he will be behind the plate the next day) and figure out their style and trends in relation to the starting pitchers trends. There are all kinds of umpire statistics readily available and many umpires will show generous strike zones or stingy strike zones. A stingy umpire matched with a pitcher with control issues or a pitcher that likes to nibble the corners can be a recipe for disaster while a generous umpire can be a recipe for success.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]I incorporate countless other factors into my handicapping which would take hours and hours to try and explain and it might not even make total sense. Regardless of the factors you utilize as a handicapper, look for factors that are relevant to you which make you feel a team is being undervalued by the general public and linemakers. In your mind, never say, I love the Tigers tomorrow without knowing the line. If you love the Tigers that day, love them because you feel there are factors important to you that provide value in your investment in relation to the line and not just because you think the Tigers will win because if you are handicapping correctly, there is a price at which you could bet the other team When you look for value instead of just who will win, you will become a much better baseball handicapper.

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]The fact that I won the last five consecutive season previous to 2013 didnt matter and in 2013, I actually showed a very small loss. Past results do not guarantee future results and I obviously will not automatically win every year or in particular, this year. Just like many of the most successful teams in professional sports, a good handicapper can have a down year. [/FONT][FONT=&amp][FONT=&amp]Thankfully, my record in Spring Training this season was inexplicably amazing but Spring Training is a completely different beast than regular season betting. [/FONT]I am confident coming into the season, but I also need to learn from my mistakes. Three years ago I was up over +80 units (averaging 1.5 units per game) at the All-Star break and ended up giving almost ¾’s of it back the second half the season. In previous years, I have struggled the first month or two and then came on strong as the season progressed. Over the last 5 years, I have profited approximately +250 units. Baseball betting requires extreme discipline, expert money management and constant analysis and research. I learned the hard way last season that getting lazy and cutting corners does not work. I am not asking anyone to tail me but am just sharing my advice. I have no interest in hearing someone whine if they follow me and lose. I owe you nothing and I post for fun. When it isn’t fun anymore, I will stop posting. There are better handicappers out there but I have had quite a nice run myself over the past 5+ years on the internet and I am proud to post this at cappingthegame.com, as some of those great handicappers pop into this forum and I learn from them on a regular basis. I urge people to sign up for the free posting forum. I wish everyone the best of luck this upcoming season.[/FONT]

Dollaz · Mar 28, 2013

This is fantastic and I can't wait to see how you play out this year.

I was just discussing the issue today about the best/worst teams. I use a strategy similar to Joe Peta in the book Trading Bases. Essentially predicting Runs Scored and Allowed and using pythag theory backing into a projected win%. Here is something I wrote: (I used Francis bc the projections for him were awful)

Interesting to see the biggest disparity. Off the top of my head, I would say the Dodgers with their starting lineup and Kershaw on the hill has the highest win% of any team in the NL. Based on BP, that team would score 697 runs and give up 533 for a .62 win percentage.

If they played the likely worst matchup off the top of my head in the NL (Rockies) at home with the Francis on the hill, the projected outcome is the Dodgers winning 72% of the time. It's crazy to think if this matchup happened for 162 games, the Rockies would still win 45 games.

72% winning percentage implies a line of ~250 for the Dodgers.

But, put Kershaw on the road vs. a league average starter on a league average team. (scoring and allowing 690 runs per season; 81-81 record). The Dodgers would win 59% of the time. The line should be LAD - 140. But chances are if this situation arises during the season, the league average home team (Pirates?) would be getting more than 130, Im sure.

bloodhound · Mar 28, 2013

Good to see u in here GameHunter

GL on the season :announce:

Coverdatspred · Mar 28, 2013

Always a good read. Hope you post here regularly this year GH. Look forward to the grind.

Gyno · Mar 28, 2013

great read, agree with 99% of what you wrote.

MusicCityGambler · Mar 28, 2013

Great stuff. I look forward to seeing your plays this season.

roger1000 · Mar 28, 2013

GameHunter said:
 [FONT=&amp]Written in March 2008 (revised in March 2009, March 2010, March 2012 and March 2013).[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]
Sport Best Worst
NFL 81.25% 12.25%
NBA 80.00% 23.90%
NCAAB 91.40% 16.67%
NCAAF 100.0% 0.00%
MLB 60.5% 34.00%

[/FONT]

I don't understand why you used straight-up, rather that ATS, records for the other sports? NFL Dogs, for example, were 51.53% ATS last year. Not profitable, true; but pretty comparable to what one'd net blind-betting MLB dogs...

Gyno · Mar 28, 2013

No spreads in baseball buddy...

B.A.R. · Mar 29, 2013

Great stuff GH...

cogenman · Mar 29, 2013

Long time no hear GH. Great read as always. Hope to see you posting this year. :thumbsup2:

RudyNYC · Mar 29, 2013

GameHunter said:
Another thing I look to do is analyze the home plate umpires after the first game of a series (in the first game of the series they aren't announced until about 30 minutes before the game but after the first game, just look who the first base umpire was the day before, as he will be behind the plate the next day) and figure out their style and trends in relation to the starting pitchers trends. There are all kinds of umpire statistics readily available and many umpires will show generous strike zones or stingy strike zones. A stingy umpire matched with a pitcher with control issues or a pitcher that likes to nibble the corners can be a recipe for disaster while a generous umpire can be a recipe for success.

Great information above, GH. I just want to add that one needs to be cautious in the early season thinking that an umpire who was typically been an OVER or UNDER umpire in 2012 will keep the same form in 2013. It is not unusual for an umpire to change his ways during the next season. I do not put much emphasis on umps until there is a track record for the current season. That is usually June 1 or so for me. Also, to take your thought process regarding umps vs. pitchers a bit further, there is actually info out there which shows the actual game-by-game info for umpires vs. each pitcher. That info is usually consistent and reliable and tells a lot what calls to expect for any pitcher.

Rudy

Elbutre88 · Mar 29, 2013

awesome read. thanks gh.

Schrute · Mar 29, 2013

Read it twice

Amazing writeup GH

Play2win · Mar 29, 2013

Great stuff as always GH. Looking forward to crushing bases and ponies with you this spring and summer.

STEED · Mar 29, 2013

Awesome :shake:

TedPadalack · Mar 31, 2013

Great stuff GH. I would love to hear your thoughts on bankroll management during a long MLB season. Specifically, unit size in relation to bankroll. Do you suggest keeping a set $/unit size for the entire year or adjusting monthly etc..

GameHunter · Mar 31, 2013

Interesting stuff Dollaz!

I love hardcore stats!

GameHunter · Mar 31, 2013

Hey Rudy!

Which part of NYC?

I totally agree. Some umpires have done a complete about face the following years but some have consistent percentages and are known for generous or stingy strike zones or a propensity to favor the home team (could be the pressure of the crowd). I certainly don't put a ton of emphasis on it early on but it is something to incorporate into capping on a daily basis.

GameHunter · Mar 31, 2013

Hey Ted.

The season is certainly a long grind. I think a unit should be between 1-2% of a person's overall bankroll. When I say bankroll, it doesn't have to mean what you currently have in your account. I know the amount I have set aside for baseball. It doesn't all have to be in my accounts at the beginning of the season (also, I play a lot on credit) but in my mind I know what my season bankroll is. As my bankroll grows (hopefully) the amount of units I play on a game doesn't change but my unit value may go up. Considering on some days, I could play 8-9 games, you certainly can't be risking your entire bankroll.

Let's say someone has a $3,000 bankroll for the season, I recommend that his unit should be between $30-60.

GameHunter · Mar 31, 2013

Thanks B.A.R., Steed, Allen and the rest.

RudyNYC · Mar 31, 2013

GameHunter said:
Hey Rudy!

Which part of NYC?

GH,

Midtown East, about four blocks from the UN. "I can see Queens from my porch"...lol I assume you are from the area???

GL this season. I plan on posting here when time permits.

Best,
Rudy

GameHunter · Mar 30, 2014

Revised for 2014!

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!!!!

Schrute · Mar 30, 2014

Fantastic

DaRaiders · Mar 30, 2014

Incredible insight, I read this before the start of every season.
Thanks GH.

King Slap · Mar 30, 2014

The greatest! Good luck this season GH

Hagg · Mar 30, 2014

GH Writeup

Really thought provoking and informative. So much to consider now I know that I am a novice a capping BB. Thanks

cogenman · Mar 30, 2014

always a good read. thanks.

peelpub94 · Mar 30, 2014

GameHunter said:
 [FONT=&amp]Written in March 2008 (revised in March 2009, March 2010, March 2012, March 2013 and March 2014).[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]WHY BETTING UNDERDOGS IN BASEBALL IS DIFFERENT FROM ANY OTHER SPORT.[/FONT][FONT=&amp]
[/FONT]

I understand the NHL is a foreign subject to some handicappers. But just a little note.

In 2014, the NHL Underdogs win 40% of the time straight up and 66% of the time ATS. The MLB isn't the only league that's quite like this. Nice write up regardless.

bones · Mar 30, 2014

Really appreciate this thread:shake:

blackjack34 · Mar 31, 2014

I was a professional baseball umpire. Also an instructor at professional umpiring school....umpires are aware of these stats gamblers use. It is talked about at umpire school. Umpires don't favor one player over another. Every angle is able to be seen very clearly. As an umpire you can't stick it to a guy like you used to be able to. The umpires are educated people now. They have to have a certain score on their ques tech games. Everything is monitored. I umpired with most of the new umpires that were hired this season and pretty much all of the fill in umpires. You do not get a look by mlb as an umpire these days unless you have shown good strike zone good judgement and ability to handle situations. Every new hire has been taught the exact same strikezone. And they all take great pride in trying to be perfect. Any correlations people draw from over under or pitchers hitters umpire are just the way each game has unfolded...

GameHunter · Mar 31, 2014

blackjack34 said:
I was a professional baseball umpire. Also an instructor at professional umpiring school....umpires are aware of these stats gamblers use. It is talked about at umpire school. Umpires don't favor one player over another. Every angle is able to be seen very clearly. As an umpire you can't stick it to a guy like you used to be able to. The umpires are educated people now. They have to have a certain score on their ques tech games. Everything is monitored. I umpired with most of the new umpires that were hired this season and pretty much all of the fill in umpires. You do not get a look by mlb as an umpire these days unless you have shown good strike zone good judgement and ability to handle situations. Every new hire has been taught the exact same strikezone. And they all take great pride in trying to be perfect. Any correlations people draw from over under or pitchers hitters umpire are just the way each game has unfolded...

While I 100% respect you and your response and reasoning, I do think psychology comes into play even if it is subconscious to an umpire. Not all umpires are alike. Some may without knowing tend to avoid confrontation or be persuaded by the pressures of a crowd. Some may be more confident to punch someone out on a called 3rd strike on a borderline pitch. While they are taught similar strike zones, some may see it slightly differently by the way they position themselves behind the plate or just in general. I don't think it is a random event that one umpire can say go 22-4 OVER one season while another goes 17-5 UNDER. I don't see them as random occurrences. Some umpires have amazing UNDER records on travel days. Some have incredible UNDER records on Sundays. There are a myriad of factors which can influence an umpire while he remains impartial. So again, I respect what you are saying but human being show tendencies in many things in life that they may not even realize, and I believe there is science behind some umpires OVER/UNDER records. nothing but respect to you in the meantime.

hare1994 · Mar 31, 2014

awesome stuff

bulldog · Mar 31, 2014

great post; lot of good info.

Timh · Mar 31, 2014

Excellent read, BOL on the season.

Tide High · Mar 31, 2014

you talk about best and worst and then bring up wichita st vs cornell... what would the moneyline be in that game? -2500 Witchita? Highest we ever see in mlb is -400.

you make some good points but that is apples and oranges.

GameHunter · Mar 31, 2014

Tide High said:
you talk about best and worst and then bring up wichita st vs cornell... what would the moneyline be in that game? -2500 Witchita? Highest we ever see in mlb is -400.

you make some good points but that is apples and oranges.

The point I was trying to make is that in baseball, there is no insurmountable mismatch unlike NFL, NBA, CFB or CBB such as the example of Wichita vs. Cornell.

blackjack34 · Apr 1, 2014

Hunter. I understand what you are saying. I have been on the field with robinson canoe, ian desmond, andrew mccutchen, evan longoria, jed lowrie, elvis andrus, john lannon,brett gardner, just to name a few. I heard the things they said to eachother. If a game goes under on a get away day it isn't because the umpire had a bigger zone. It is because players are doing things different. Umpires all set up in the exact same spot on every pitch. Just watch them. Watch the new hires they all will be set up on the inside corner and the only adjustment is when the catcher sets up inside the umpire raises his head height. If you want to bet your hard earned money on factoring in umpires hopefully it works. I'm just putting info out for people. Umpires at the major league level are never affraid to ring someone up. Ever. These guys are professionals and trust me when I tell you they do not care who wins or loses and they don't favor anyone. The only thing they care about is being perfect on the field...good luck this season.

Busterzdad · Apr 2, 2014

blackjack, it's great to have an insider's perspective. But in this case it seems like you see something completely different from what players, fans, and announcers see with their own eyes. The perception-you'd have to call it a reality-is that each umpire has their own strike zone, and they interpet differently. The monitor and Pitch/FX show pretty clearly that balls are called strikes, and vice versa, all the time, and not necessarily consistently.

I listen to Giants games, where the announcers are some of the best in the game, including Mike Krukow, Duane Kuiper, and Jon Miller, who've been around the block. After some balls and strikes calls they sound like they've been punched in the stomach. Strike zones vary from umpire to umpire and game to game.

It doesn't affect betting on the game in a way I can understand (maybe others can.) But this may be my only chance to ask this question of someone who knows the game as well as you do. However, you seem to be saying that umpires don't interpret the strike zone at all, an opinion that is held by -- umpires.

Thanks for your sharing your experience in the game with us.

peelpub94 · Apr 6, 2014

blackjack34 said:
Hunter. I understand what you are saying. I have been on the field with robinson canoe, ian desmond, andrew mccutchen, evan longoria, jed lowrie, elvis andrus, john lannon,brett gardner, just to name a few. I heard the things they said to eachother. If a game goes under on a get away day it isn't because the umpire had a bigger zone. It is because players are doing things different. Umpires all set up in the exact same spot on every pitch. Just watch them. Watch the new hires they all will be set up on the inside corner and the only adjustment is when the catcher sets up inside the umpire raises his head height. If you want to bet your hard earned money on factoring in umpires hopefully it works. I'm just putting info out for people. Umpires at the major league level are never affraid to ring someone up. Ever. These guys are professionals and trust me when I tell you they do not care who wins or loses and they don't favor anyone. The only thing they care about is being perfect on the field...good luck this season.

I think this could be debated.

"The strike zone shrinks by as much as 20 percentage points in the top and bottom. With two strikes, borderline pitches — those that are ordinarily 50/50 calls — become 30/70 calls (30 percent strikes, 70 percent balls) for the average umpire. And with two strikes, the most biased umpire calls balls on borderline pitches almost every time. On close calls, umpires act as if they would rather give the batter another chance than call a third strike."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/four-strikes-and-youre-out/

dd_1_pl_4_u_ · Apr 11, 2014

GH new to this forum on post #6 you talk about .10 and .20 lines when you say .10 do you mean -1.10 on both teams? And -1.20 on both teams for the .20 line assuming the game is a pick'em game thanks?

dd_1_pl_4_u_ · Apr 11, 2014

In post #5 you talk about playing over 1,000 games per year for baseball only? Is baseball your favorite sport? Do you post picks for other sports? Do you have any idea what your winning % or net units are for your lifetime?
TY

blackjack34 · Apr 11, 2014

Strike zone is clearly defined by the rule book. At umpire school it is suggested you give the pitchers half a ball on the inside corner and one full baseball on the outside corner for width of strike zone. If people actually think umpires purposefully squeeze pitchers they are wrong. And as far as announcers go....if you think they know anything about umpiring you are way off.

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