Bengals vs. Titans Discussion Thread

lfhlaw said:
Not much. I'm a very small player and play mostly for entertainment and give me something to root for. just $15 .
I'm not a good sports bettor and had gotten myself in tons of trouble a long time ago with maxxed out CC and stuff. But i paid it all off and now just play for fun knowing I probably at most will break even or lose a little.
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Goid for you bro!
 
Hendrickson news? If hes out it's a huge boost

Titans at pff are the 4th worst pass blocking unit

They are also one of the worst teams at pass rush, burrow is gonna have a lot more time this week than last week, I think their offense will look a lot more like 'normal'. Raiders were a non blitzing team that causes a ton of pressure with just a front 4, that's basically burrows worst cast scenario. Tennessee doesn't pressure as much, and they blitz a bit more, which burrow feasts on
 
THWG said:
Saturday morning, I took the Titans at +325 to win the AFC. Assuming AFC favorites won this weekend, I figured Titans MLs would be about -200 in divisional and +120 in the AFC conference game. (I figured they’d be a small dog to either Buffalo or KC).

It looks like my line guesses are off but I still believe there’s value in this line. Home field advantage, bye week wild card round, previous success against the two most favored AFC teams, and hopefully Henry back healthy - either this Saturday - or worst case the 29th.

I am really surprised to see the small line this weekend.

Disclosure - I am not a homer but did take Tennessee +4 against KC back in October when in Vegas for my birthday as the biggest sports bet of my life. So I’m trying to ride the bandwagon :)
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Welcome to CTG

Great thoughts here, go Titans!
 
one thing I am a little concerned with and this may not be a popular take.
I am concerned that Henry coming back may stall this heater they have been on, kinda mess with the flow….. (hopefully I am way off on this) because Henry usually excels in the 4th after he has pounded you and pounded you and wore you down… Do you just stop what your doing and go back to pounding or keep on doing what you have been doing …..
Can’t wait to see their approach

I’ll have more later

The one thing I like the most about this game is Vrabel. He is the one factor that stands out over everything.
The fact that the Titans has used every player on that roster at some point and the most players to ever play in one season 86 after week 12 (broke and NFL record) and they have contributed in all different ways
I think the count may be at 89-90 now
So this team will have back ups with playing experience on the sideline.
Now Playoff experience is a little different but they should have Cincy on this.


FG pretty even
Cincy 28-33 XP 46-48 95.8%
Titans 26-31 XP 42-45 93.3%
 
ProV1Colt said:
one thing I am a little concerned with and this may not be a popular take.
I am concerned that Henry coming back may stall this heater they have been on, kinda mess with the flow….. (hopefully I am way off on this) because Henry usually excels in the 4th after he has pounded you and pounded you and wore you down… Do you just stop what your doing and go back to pounding or keep on doing what you have been doing …..
Can’t wait to see their approach

I’ll have more later

The one thing I like the most about this game is Vrabel. He is the one factor that stands out over everything.
The fact that the Titans has used every player on that roster at some point and the most players to ever play in one season 86 after week 12 (broke and NFL record) and they have contributed in all different ways
I think the count may be at 89-90 now
So this team will have back ups with playing experience on the sideline.
Now Playoff experience is a little different but they should have Cincy on this.


FG pretty even
Cincy 28-33 XP 46-48 95.8%
Titans 26-31 XP 42-45 93.3%
Click to expand...
I'd assume they use both D and Foreman this week? Guessing as game goes on, more D...
 
B.A.R. said:
I'd assume they use both D and Foreman this week? Guessing as game goes on, more D...
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That would be my guess. Hopefully use them both along with Hillard.
McNichols has always been the 3rd down back and they have purposely kept him in that role he is the better blocker and has the best hands of them all but was released a month ago, and on the practice squad now….
 
ProV1Colt said:
one thing I am a little concerned with and this may not be a popular take.
I am concerned that Henry coming back may stall this heater they have been on, kinda mess with the flow….. (hopefully I am way off on this) because Henry usually excels in the 4th after he has pounded you and pounded you and wore you down… Do you just stop what your doing and go back to pounding or keep on doing what you have been doing …..
Can’t wait to see their approach

I’ll have more later

The one thing I like the most about this game is Vrabel. He is the one factor that stands out over everything.
The fact that the Titans has used every player on that roster at some point and the most players to ever play in one season 86 after week 12 (broke and NFL record) and they have contributed in all different ways
I think the count may be at 89-90 now
So this team will have back ups with playing experience on the sideline.
Now Playoff experience is a little different but they should have Cincy on this.


FG pretty even
Cincy 28-33 XP 46-48 95.8%
Titans 26-31 XP 42-45 93.3%
Click to expand...

They didn’t exactly change who they were with Henry out, they were still pummeling teams with the other backs. I hear what you saying im def a bit worried w so little time together that they be able to just pick right back up where they left off, but ultimately even if it not pretty as you mentioned I got Vrabel on sideline so I know they gonna play good physical hard nosed fb and I don’t think cincy can match that, they have never really experienced that kinda playoff intensity in the trenches. Raiders certainly wernt the team to show them as they just as clueless about playoff football. Tits not finishing drives and burrow turning to super man late in game worries me enough not to bet my house but man I want to!!!
 
ProV1Colt said:
That would be my guess. Hopefully use them both along with Hillard.
McNichols has always been the 3rd down back and they have purposely kept him in that role he is the better blocker and has the best hands of them all but was released a month ago, and on the practice squad now….
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I’m thinking this won’t be a Henry game. They will use him but more as a decoy. I think they probably know they can’t give him 30 carries and have him do what he does best (as has already been stated, wear down the D). Play action passes out of heavy sets, fake run, throw to AJB. Typically in the playoffs you gotta win in other ways than what got you there. Titans should open it up.
 
DaddyMcIlhon said:
I’m thinking this won’t be a Henry game. They will use him but more as a decoy. I think they probably know they can’t give him 30 carries and have him do what he does best (as has already been stated, wear down the D). Play action passes out of heavy sets, fake run, throw to AJB. Typically in the playoffs you gotta win in other ways than what got you there. Titans should open it up.
Click to expand...

I think they will use Henry a lot early to soften up the d then if he can’t give them a lot in 4th the other guys benefit from worn down d.
 
B.A.R. said:
I'd assume they use both D and Foreman this week? Guessing as game goes on, more D...
Click to expand...

I was thinking Henry hammer at them early then foreman gets to run at them when they tired. Who knows tho? I know they had Henry working hard taking some contact in practice today and he looked pretty good. Big as fuck and fast, obviously he wasn’t getting drug to ground with ppl pulling at his foot but dude a freak, I’m not sure I’d count out the possibility he gets 20 touches at least. I doubt I’m messing w any props which strange for me, just feel more confident tits get it done no matter how they have to go about it.
 
skanless13 said:
Surprised titan bets are that low
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I love it! Had a feeling, and I get it, I freaking love Burrow. If it wasn’t for fear of him I would unload everything I got on this for real, lol. Just think natural progression is they go down and come back even hungrier next year, hopefully with a much better oline and a sense of how physical this game gonna be!!!
 
guaranteeed said:
Hendrickson news? If hes out it's a huge boost

Titans at pff are the 4th worst pass blocking unit

They are also one of the worst teams at pass rush, burrow is gonna have a lot more time this week than last week, I think their offense will look a lot more like 'normal'. Raiders were a non blitzing team that causes a ton of pressure with just a front 4, that's basically burrows worst cast scenario. Tennessee doesn't pressure as much, and they blitz a bit more, which burrow feasts on
Click to expand...

Titans are 13th in sack rate which way better than the raiders who ppl thought would be a problem w their one guy off edge. Titans have a nasty front 4 and they bring it from all over with twist and stunts using only 4 guys, it will be a nightmare for cincy crap oline, this the difference in a real team and the raiders. Whoever told you raiders better w their front 4 than titans are liars. Ask the rams bout titans front 4.
 
DaddyMcIlhon said:
I’m thinking this won’t be a Henry game. They will use him but more as a decoy. I think they probably know they can’t give him 30 carries and have him do what he does best (as has already been stated, wear down the D). Play action passes out of heavy sets, fake run, throw to AJB. Typically in the playoffs you gotta win in other ways than what got you there. Titans should open it up.
Click to expand...
I tend to agree with this and think AJB yds over catches over looks good. Pick a te anytime scorer at nice odds.
 
2daBank said:
Titans are 13th in sack rate which way better than the raiders who ppl thought would be a problem w their one guy off edge. Titans have a nasty front 4 and they bring it from all over with twist and stunts using only 4 guys, it will be a nightmare for cincy crap oline, this the difference in a real team and the raiders. Whoever told you raiders better w their front 4 than titans are liars. Ask the rams bout titans front 4.
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Math - I guess math lied to me

Pressures are a much more predictive stat to causing qb issues than sack rate. Football outsiders did a study a few years ago on 3 seasons worth of data. The correlation of sack rate within the same team across games was 0.09, the correlation on pressures was 0.43. Even on the offensive side of the ball, which in general is also more predictive of both sacks and pressures, sacks correlation was 0.37 to pressures 0.55.

Because even though the titans had a sack rate 0.9% better than the raiders this year. Meaning they got 1 sack more for every 100 drop backs, effectively 1 every 3 games, the raiders knocked the qb down 21 more times than the titans this year, and in qb knockdown percentage were 3rd in the league, the nasty twisting and stunting titans were 25th. All while blitzing 60 more times than the raiders, which burrow absolutely feasts on.

I will ask the rams front 4, but I'm also gonna ask the powerhouse houston texans (2 sacks over 2 games), indy (1), the jets (0), and the other 5 teams who allowed 2 or less sacks against the titans.
 
guaranteeed said:
Math - I guess math lied to me

Pressures are a much more predictive stat to causing qb issues than sack rate. Football outsiders did a study a few years ago on 3 seasons worth of data. The correlation of sack rate within the same team across games was 0.09, the correlation on pressures was 0.43. Even on the offensive side of the ball, which in general is also more predictive of both sacks and pressures, sacks correlation was 0.37 to pressures 0.55.

Because even though the titans had a sack rate 0.9% better than the raiders this year. Meaning they got 1 sack more for every 100 drop backs, effectively 1 every 3 games, the raiders knocked the qb down 21 more times than the titans this year, and in qb knockdown percentage were 3rd in the league, the nasty twisting and stunting titans were 25th. All while blitzing 60 more times than the raiders, which burrow absolutely feasts on.

I will ask the rams front 4, but I'm also gonna ask the powerhouse houston texans (2 sacks over 2 games), indy (1), the jets (0), and the other 5 teams who allowed 2 or less sacks against the titans.
Click to expand...

yea i guees im crazy cause i believe actually getting home is a skill. niners pressure rate was much lower than raiders i was told (yet a way higher sack rate which i value) yet they got home on dak and caused way more problems against a good oline than the raiders did vs a very poor one.. to each is own tho.. there is a bad thing that comes with pressures that dont get home that never talked about, it leads to a lot more the super weak ass roughing penalties they call these days.. obviously lot of benefits but those always talked about..
 
titans overs 28-10 the last 38x henry and tannenhill both played! that pretty crazy,. not like burrow and co gonna hurt that..
 
2daBank said:
yea i guees im crazy cause i believe actually getting home is a skill. niners pressure rate was much lower than raiders i was told (yet a way higher sack rate which i value) yet they got home on dak and caused way more problems against a good oline than the raiders did vs a very poor one.. to each is own tho.. there is a bad thing that comes with pressures that dont get home that never talked about, it leads to a lot more the super weak ass roughing penalties they call these days.. obviously lot of benefits but those always talked about..
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Getting home isnt a skill, that's what the numbers point out, its somewhat random, its not consistent from year to year.

Process is more replicable than results in looking forward. It's not a to each his own thing. I dono who told you this but they're liars
 
guaranteeed said:
Getting home isnt a skill, that's what the numbers point out, its somewhat random, its not consistent from year to year.

Process is more replicable than results in looking forward. It's not a to each his own thing. I dono who told you this but they're liars
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it is a each is own thing. i guess we will see how it goes, i knew the ppl who lost on raisers wouldnt respect titans, i love it. health
 
here how it each is own.. while maybe long term year to year you are correct but this aint baseball, this a one game series where i trust guys who been actually taking down the qb to continue doing so.. numbers dont prove actually getting sacks is random and not a skill,, they suggest the more pressures you get the more sacks you will get and im sure that is true over a career but some guys are just better making it count when they get there.
 
guaranteeed said:
I like the titans tho
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but i want more ppl to like the bungals!! stop messing with me!! lol... truth be told i didnt like burrow in college, maybe cause i didnt like lsu but he quickly turning into one my fav qbs, if you told me to pick between him and Hebert i would take broadway joe and not think twice, and i know how good Hebert is!! burrow is freaking special and i think the rare kinda guy who gets better when the pressure is on.. He very joe montana like imo.. ill just always take the more physical team in this kind of game, i really dont think cincy has any clue how physical this game gonna be, should be a great learning experience for them and think they will come back better and hungrier next year as the sting of this loss will have burrow and co working like crazy this offseason!!! only thing that preventing one the bigger bets my life is the fear titans settle for some fgs and leaves burrow in striking range late which i dont think i could take watching with a huge bet!! lol
 
the good thing about that concern as titans are the 6th best team in the league finishing rz drives with tds while cincy d is middle the pack.. cincy the offense who often struggles cashing in their chances, almost cost them vs the raiders and titans red zone d is fantastic as you would expect from a Vrabel team.
 
2daBank said:
here how it each is own.. while maybe long term year to year you are correct but this aint baseball, this a one game series where i trust guys who been actually taking down the qb to continue doing so.. numbers dont prove actually getting sacks is random and not a skill,, they suggest the more pressures you get the more sacks you will get and im sure that is true over a career but some guys are just better making it count when they get there.
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To be fair though, if this is the plan you want to use, that’s it’s only one game, wouldn’t it logically follow then that all of the previous stats and what not can be thrown out the window? If the two teams didn’t face each other this year, there aren’t any conclusions to draw from other games as this is only one game, between these 2 teams.

Not to mention, the sack rate (as Teed pointed out), equates to the Titans getting ONE more sack per 100 drop backs than the Raiders.
 
guaranteeed said:
Getting home isnt a skill, that's what the numbers point out, its somewhat random, its not consistent from year to year.

Process is more replicable than results in looking forward. It's not a to each his own thing. I dono who told you this but they're liars
Click to expand...

Similar to turnovers it sounds like.
 
guaranteeed said:
Math - I guess math lied to me

Pressures are a much more predictive stat to causing qb issues than sack rate. Football outsiders did a study a few years ago on 3 seasons worth of data. The correlation of sack rate within the same team across games was 0.09, the correlation on pressures was 0.43. Even on the offensive side of the ball, which in general is also more predictive of both sacks and pressures, sacks correlation was 0.37 to pressures 0.55.

Because even though the titans had a sack rate 0.9% better than the raiders this year. Meaning they got 1 sack more for every 100 drop backs, effectively 1 every 3 games, the raiders knocked the qb down 21 more times than the titans this year, and in qb knockdown percentage were 3rd in the league, the nasty twisting and stunting titans were 25th. All while blitzing 60 more times than the raiders, which burrow absolutely feasts on.

I will ask the rams front 4, but I'm also gonna ask the powerhouse houston texans (2 sacks over 2 games), indy (1), the jets (0), and the other 5 teams who allowed 2 or less sacks against the titans.
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Good post
 
jedi ninja said:
To be fair though, if this is the plan you want to use, that’s it’s only one game, wouldn’t it logically follow then that all of the previous stats and what not can be thrown out the window? If the two teams didn’t face each other this year, there aren’t any conclusions to draw from other games as this is only one game, between these 2 teams.

Not to mention, the sack rate (as Teed pointed out), equates to the Titans getting ONE more sack per 100 drop backs than the Raiders.
Click to expand...

You are correct the previous stats mean absolutely nothing. All that matters to me is how titans dline operates and how cohesive their opponents offensive line needs to be to deal with it. It not like it a apples to apples comparison, maybe I missed it happening but I didn’t see raiders do anything in the way of twist, stunts, or other things up front, they basically line up and go mono a mono, on the other hand titans are incredibly active in what they do up front. It makes no sense to me to compare the 2 as it completely different. The year long numbers don’t mean anything to me cause I don’t care how many sacks or pressures they got playing the Texans, jags, etc . I care how disruptive I’ve seen them be in big games vs teams who not used to playing them.
 
jedi ninja said:
To be fair though, if this is the plan you want to use, that’s it’s only one game, wouldn’t it logically follow then that all of the previous stats and what not can be thrown out the window? If the two teams didn’t face each other this year, there aren’t any conclusions to draw from other games as this is only one game, between these 2 teams.

Not to mention, the sack rate (as Teed pointed out), equates to the Titans getting ONE more sack per 100 drop backs than the Raiders.
Click to expand...

You are correct the previous stats mean absolutely nothing. For me very few stats mean a ton capping the nfl, they make for good talking points but end of day there only a few I care about, it far more about matchups to me and how I think a game will play out. All that matters to me is how titans dline operates and how cohesive their opponents offensive line needs to be to deal with it. It not like it a apples to apples comparison, maybe I missed it happening but I didn’t see raiders do anything in the way of twist, stunts, or other things up front, they basically line up and go mono a mono, on the other hand titans are incredibly active in what they do up front. It makes no sense to me to compare the 2 as it completely different. The year long numbers don’t mean anything to me cause I don’t care how many sacks or pressures they got playing the Texans, jags, etc . I care how disruptive I’ve seen them be in big games vs teams who not used to playing them. Your offensive line better be all on the same page as it won’t simply be lining up and blocking the man in front of them.
 
Last edited:
Cincinnati are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Tennessee.

Cincinnati are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against Tennessee.

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee.
 
Vap'sBack said:
Cincinnati are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Tennessee.

Cincinnati are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against Tennessee.

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee.
Click to expand...

When the last time tennesse and cincy played? Was Andy Dalton the qb? Lol, I can’t even think of who it was for titans in all those!!

Titans are 28-10 to the over the last 38x Henry and tannenhill both played. I found that pretty interesting. Gotta make ya lean over, Cincy not exactly the team who gonna play a low scoring game with them!!
 
Interesting metric from Bet the Board podcast:

Tannehill's drop backs with Henry, AJ Brown and Julio all on the field - Tannehill avg 9.4 yds per attempt

Drop backs w/o that trio on the field - Tannehill avg 5.2 yds per attempt
 
bones said:
Interesting metric from Bet the Board podcast:

Tannehill's drop backs with Henry, AJ Brown and Julio all on the field - Tannehill avg 9.4 yds per attempt

Drop backs w/o that trio on the field - Tannehill avg 5.2 yds per attempt
Click to expand...

I love that podcast. Was hoping to listen to it last night but wasn’t out yet. That will be my bedtime listening tonight. Lol
 
I see guys have posted some tidbits from the BTB pod, surprised nobody posted this gem.

Vrabel 8-0 straight up and ats with 8+ days to prepare! I’m assuming that lifetime?
 
bones said:
Interesting metric from Bet the Board podcast:

Tannehill's drop backs with Henry, AJ Brown and Julio all on the field - Tannehill avg 9.4 yds per attempt

Drop backs w/o that trio on the field - Tannehill avg 5.2 yds per attempt
Click to expand...
Not sure why this would shock anyone. Makes sense
 
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