Bengals vs. Titans Discussion Thread

Burrow i love ya kid but this will be a learning experience, tits have paid those dues and their front gonna eat that crappy oline, this aint the raiders, titans are well coached and tough as hell to block up front, ask the rams!! and that offense will make what niners did far as ball control look pedestrian!! you see those holes jacobs had? he just didnt get the chances, henry will, or foreman for all i care, it wouldnt matter.. this wont be that close, maybe Broadway joe rallies a little but this line a joke!!
 
I respect all opinions here, and maybe I rely on numbers too much, but neither OL is good. And both DL are good. Everywhere you look, these teams are virtually even in the metrics.

I don’t have a side here yet but seems like there’s a rush to get on the fav here. I dont love either team and don’t think either will win another game after this weekend (be it Buff or KC) but I’m taking a more measured approach.

And yes I still might land on Tenn.
 
Capaholic said:
I respect all opinions here, and maybe I rely on numbers too much, but neither OL is good. And both DL are good. Everywhere you look, these teams are virtually even in the metrics.

I don’t have a side here yet but seems like there’s a rush to get on the fav here. I dont love either team and don’t think either will win another game after this weekend (be it Buff or KC) but I’m taking a more measured approach.

And yes I still might land on Tenn.
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I agree this prob the last win for both of them. Although I doubt your chiefs or Buffalo will be excited to go to Tennessee, I’m sure they rather have a home game vs the young Bengals whom I’m not sure are all that well coached, certainly not compared to titans!!! I been wrong before, it just been awhile!! Lmao.
 
Capaholic said:
I respect all opinions here, and maybe I rely on numbers too much, but neither OL is good. And both DL are good. Everywhere you look, these teams are virtually even in the metrics.

I don’t have a side here yet but seems like there’s a rush to get on the fav here. I dont love either team and don’t think either will win another game after this weekend (be it Buff or KC) but I’m taking a more measured approach.

And yes I still might land on Tenn.
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I havnt looked at how titans oline grades out but I assume they much better run blockers and honestly would consider them at least average. On other hand I think cincy’s is bottom 10 at best!!
 
Saturday morning, I took the Titans at +325 to win the AFC. Assuming AFC favorites won this weekend, I figured Titans MLs would be about -200 in divisional and +120 in the AFC conference game. (I figured they’d be a small dog to either Buffalo or KC).

It looks like my line guesses are off but I still believe there’s value in this line. Home field advantage, bye week wild card round, previous success against the two most favored AFC teams, and hopefully Henry back healthy - either this Saturday - or worst case the 29th.

I am really surprised to see the small line this weekend.

Disclosure - I am not a homer but did take Tennessee +4 against KC back in October when in Vegas for my birthday as the biggest sports bet of my life. So I’m trying to ride the bandwagon :)
 
THWG said:
Saturday morning, I took the Titans at +325 to win the AFC. Assuming AFC favorites won this weekend, I figured Titans MLs would be about -200 in divisional and +120 in the AFC conference game. (I figured they’d be a small dog to either Buffalo or KC).

It looks like my line guesses are off but I still believe there’s value in this line. Home field advantage, bye week wild card round, previous success against the two most favored AFC teams, and hopefully Henry back healthy - either this Saturday - or worst case the 29th.

I am really surprised to see the small line this weekend.

Disclosure - I am not a homer but did take Tennessee +4 against KC back in October when in Vegas for my birthday as the biggest sports bet of my life. So I’m trying to ride the bandwagon :)
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You not alone, I was shocked it opened -3. I just don’t play futures at end of year cause think the math been done that it better to simply roll them individually/open parlay/or whatever. That was a nice easy one for biggest bet your life! My 1st vegas experience and biggest bet ever was Vince Young lead longhorns over usc!! It was not a stress free game but I wouldn’t have had it any other way, turned out to be one the greatest games ever and always will be the greatest to me as it still biggest win I ever had on the spread and ml! Paid for whole trip and then some! Didn’t even feel the couple grand I dropped at tables!! Lol

Assuming they be small dogs at home to bills or kc? Wouldn’t think be more than 3/4 but I thought this line was gonna be 4.5:6!! Lol
 
Took Titans -3 an hour ago.

Line is now -3.5 -105. Do not know if this is the first line move?
 
2daBank said:
I havnt looked at how titans oline grades out but I assume they much better run blockers and honestly would consider them at least average. On other hand I think cincy’s is bottom 10 at best!!
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Football outsiders has Cincy as the very slight better run blocking unit, with Tennessee as the better power running unit.

PFF has Tennessee slightly ahead of Cincy.
 
Capaholic said:
Eye test tells me Tenn is the better unit. King Henry may just be the difference in this one. Ogunjobi is def out for Cincy as well.
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Yea I thought for sure tits line be a good 7-10 slots ahead. If Henry a combination of fresh but also in game shape that be fantastic, I dunno bout the latter tho. I like the guys who carried load while he was out enough to win this game, I assume be a little of everyone unless Henry is chomping at the bit, concern would be he gets gassed and can’t handle 20+ when typically he gets better as game goes. Even if he can’t if he softens them up 1st 3 qrtrs mcnichols or Hilliard should be able to take advantage in 4th!! I just think tits are gonna control this game similar to niners did vs Dallas, just hope tits cash in their chances cause I certainly don’t want fgs and Burrow storming back late!! That would be the game script that scares me the most.
 
Cincinnati are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Tennessee.


Cincinnati are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against Tennessee.


The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee.
 
twinkie13 said:
I’m sure everyone expected higher.

What gives?
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Been doing a deeper dive. And again, you either are into the advanced metrics or you’re not, but that’s where the lines are originating (a la KenPom for CBB).

Tennessee with Henry: 6-2, DVOA 20 (weighted 17). Offense 16th, Defense 20th.

Without Henry: 6-3, DVOA 20 (weighted 13) Offense 20th, Defense 12th

Because the defense has been better, it is saying they have actually been a better team WITHOUT Henry. But it is still saying they always were an average team (as is Cincy by the numbers).

For better or worse I think the market and the metrics are saying these are almost even teams (slight advantage to Tenn as home field isn’t really 3 anymore). And now I think the money will continue to come in on Tenn and keep this more toward 3.5.

Edit: Sagarin indicates this spread (with home field should be -2.5 (-115). Again, not saying any of these are “right” lol. Just gives me pause on taking Tenn so easily.
 
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Interesting stuff guys. Thanks for sharing the analytics. It sounds like based on that input, there probably will be close to balanced action. Do analytic models give or subtract points for coming off of a bye week - similar to home field advantage? Qualitatively, I’d think it’s worth something but have no idea if that’s actually backed up quantitatively? (Just curious).
 
Capaholic said:
Been doing a deeper dive. And again, you either are into the advanced metrics or you’re not, but that’s where the lines are originating (a la KenPom for CBB).

Tennessee with Henry: 6-2, DVOA 20 (weighted 17). Offense 16th, Defense 20th.

Without Henry: 6-3, DVOA 20 (weighted 13) Offense 20th, Defense 12th

Because the defense has been better, it is saying they have actually been a better team WITHOUT Henry. But it is still saying they always were an average team (as is Cincy by the numbers).

For better or worse I think the market and the metrics are saying these are almost even teams (slight advantage to Tenn as home field isn’t really 3 anymore). And now I think the money will continue to come in on Tenn and keep this more toward 3.5.

Edit: Sagarin indicates this spread (with home field should be -2.5 (-115). Again, not saying any of these are “right” lol. Just gives me pause on taking Tenn so easily.
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Same read. I do like Vrabel and general experience for Titans as an intangible. Niners and Rams better plays imo
 
a thought entered my head that wasn’t there at 1st. I am a tad concerned that titans while healthy may not be the well oiled machine some these other teams are that have worked all year to peak now, being healthy and fresh is great but rust a potential problem as they havnt all been on field much, last week was good for the passing game. I don’t much care the defense let mills come back and make it a game, I’m confident that was letdown based. Bottom line I don’t think cincy d front can cause the problems titans d front is def gonna cause. They spent money on that d but it been extremely disappointing down the stretch and had raiders not let game script get away jacobs had huge holes to run thru! They let ravens 3rd string qb throw for 300 yard along with all the Other offenses that been scoring/moving ball all over them while titans d won them plenty of Games.
 
Capaholic said:
Been doing a deeper dive. And again, you either are into the advanced metrics or you’re not, but that’s where the lines are originating (a la KenPom for CBB).

Tennessee with Henry: 6-2, DVOA 20 (weighted 17). Offense 16th, Defense 20th.

Without Henry: 6-3, DVOA 20 (weighted 13) Offense 20th, Defense 12th

Because the defense has been better, it is saying they have actually been a better team WITHOUT Henry. But it is still saying they always were an average team (as is Cincy by the numbers).

For better or worse I think the market and the metrics are saying these are almost even teams (slight advantage to Tenn as home field isn’t really 3 anymore). And now I think the money will continue to come in on Tenn and keep this more toward 3.5.

Edit: Sagarin indicates this spread (with home field should be -2.5 (-115). Again, not saying any of these are “right” lol. Just gives me pause on taking Tenn so easily.
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They also had Lewan and AJ brown out too.
 
HUNT said:
They also had Lewan and AJ brown out too.
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Julio also, might not be same guy anymore but still different when he out there. Any metric grading them as average when they were running thru the best teams in the league is one I would temper my faith in. The defense took apart the rams at a time they looked like one best offenses in the league. They just a well coached, physical, tough ass team, I guess lot of metrics don’t give merit to that but I’ve seen that brand of football/style of team winning my whole life while only a few the sexy analytically appealing throw it all all over the field teams have done so. Guess I’m a dinosaur.

Of course to be fair cincy is hardly average at qb and the skill positions, they gonna be part this mix with kc and bills real soon long as they start working on the big uglies both in talent and coaching. I don’t want to talk bad about the bungals cause they can beat anyone on a given day. It just comes back to my old schools dinosaur approach that tells me teams like them usually gotta walk before they can run so once they run into a battle tested team who imo way more well coached up front and brings a higher level of physicality more times than not they go home, occasionally not, a few Andrew luck lead colts teams come to mind that were able to make it all way to the conf finals with a great young qb and lot of flaws at the Los.

So it happens but think titans have proven the last several years they better than average no matter what certain metrics may say about them. (Kinda like really great baseball pitchers who now in the HOF even tho they didn’t throw 100 mph or strike everyone out so certain metrics in that sport claim getting outs by pitching to contact is “luck” not a skill, proving to me while they all have merit and uses they should also be taken w a grain of salt/with the understanding no way of measuring the game will ever be perfectly accomplished solely with numbers). I don’t know a better way to explain why titans have beyond a doubt proven to me they belong talked about in same breath with the other top teams and why they were lined as such entering the playoffs.
 
2daBank said:
Julio also, might not be same guy anymore but still different when he out there. Any metric grading them as average when they were running thru the best teams in the league is one I would temper my faith in. The defense took apart the rams at a time they looked like one best offenses in the league. They just a well coached, physical, tough ass team, I guess lot of metrics don’t give merit to that but I’ve seen that brand of football/style of team winning my whole life while only a few the sexy analytically appealing throw it all all over the field teams have done so. Guess I’m a dinosaur.

Of course to be fair cincy is hardly average at qb and the skill positions, they gonna be part this mix with kc and bills real soon long as they start working on the big uglies both in talent and coaching. I don’t want to talk bad about the bungals cause they can beat anyone on a given day. It just comes back to my old schools dinosaur approach that tells me teams like them usually gotta walk before they can run so once they run into a battle tested team who imo way more well coached up front and brings a higher level of physicality more times than not they go home, occasionally not, a few Andrew luck lead colts teams come to mind that were able to make it all way to the conf finals with a great young qb and lot of flaws at the Los.

So it happens but think titans have proven the last several years they better than average no matter what certain metrics may say about them. (Kinda like really great baseball pitchers who now in the HOF even tho they didn’t throw 100 mph or strike everyone out so certain metrics in that sport claim getting outs by pitching to contact is “luck” not a skill, proving to me while they all have merit and uses they should also be taken w a grain of salt/with the understanding no way of measuring the game will ever be perfectly accomplished solely with numbers). I don’t know a better way to explain why titans have beyond a doubt proven to me they belong talked about in same breath with the other top teams and why they were lined as such entering the playoffs.
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I forgot about Julio. Thank you. Good thoughts from you. Bengals are a scary offense and riding high right now. Tough game.
 
THWG said:
Saturday morning, I took the Titans at +325 to win the AFC. Assuming AFC favorites won this weekend, I figured Titans MLs would be about -200 in divisional and +120 in the AFC conference game. (I figured they’d be a small dog to either Buffalo or KC).

It looks like my line guesses are off but I still believe there’s value in this line. Home field advantage, bye week wild card round, previous success against the two most favored AFC teams, and hopefully Henry back healthy - either this Saturday - or worst case the 29th.

I am really surprised to see the small line this weekend.

Disclosure - I am not a homer but did take Tennessee +4 against KC back in October when in Vegas for my birthday as the biggest sports bet of my life. So I’m trying to ride the bandwagon :)
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Half way through season I took a gamble with Tennesee at +2200. I think it might've been a game after Henry got hurt.
 
lfhlaw said:
Half way through season I took a gamble with Tennesee at +2200. I think it might've been a game after Henry got hurt.
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Nice one. Is it rude to ask how much ya got down? lol. Just curious cause figure you have good hedge options coming up assuming they win this week. I’ve hit some nice World Series during all star break the last 5 years but they were usually only for 30-50 bucks as I was just playing around betting some teams I thought would go on runs at nice prices so they didn’t really pay enough to hedge, lol.
 
2daBank said:
Nice one. Is it rude to ask how much ya got down? lol. Just curious cause figure you have good hedge options coming up assuming they win this week. I’ve hit some nice World Series during all star break the last 5 years but they were usually only for 30-50 bucks as I was just playing around betting some teams I thought would go on runs at nice prices so they didn’t really pay enough to hedge, lol.
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Not much. I'm a very small player and play mostly for entertainment and give me something to root for. just $15 .
I'm not a good sports bettor and had gotten myself in tons of trouble a long time ago with maxxed out CC and stuff. But i paid it all off and now just play for fun knowing I probably at most will break even or lose a little.
 
lfhlaw said:
Not much. I'm a very small player and play mostly for entertainment and give me something to root for. just $15 .
I'm not a good sports bettor and had gotten myself in tons of trouble a long time ago with maxxed out CC and stuff. But i paid it all off and now just play for fun knowing I probably at most will break even or lose a little.
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Lol. I hear ya brother. I don’t judge, I’ve bet lots and I’ve bets little during different times in my life depending on financial situation and other things. Appreciate honesty more than anything, I can’t stand ppl who think it matters! Far as futures like that go I’ve mostly bet them small cept a few exceptions where I loved a team and it took more for a nice payout. Niners the year kap took over was the biggest, I didn’t hedge and got heart broken, lol. I hit nationals at all star break few years back at a real nice number, I usually play 4/5 teams at asb every year but just 20-50 Each, still fun and at 20-1 or better nice little cash when they hit!!

You a better man than me paying the CC’s off. I’ve fucked off bunch of them in my life and ducked/dodged long enough till they were just gone from credit and all :) some might frown on this but I don’t care, lol.
 
lfhlaw said:
Not much. I'm a very small player and play mostly for entertainment and give me something to root for. just $15 .
I'm not a good sports bettor and had gotten myself in tons of trouble a long time ago with maxxed out CC and stuff. But i paid it all off and now just play for fun knowing I probably at most will break even or lose a little.
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This is how I know I’d drink a beer with you and you are likely a good dude.

GL rest of the way
 
Capaholic said:
Been doing a deeper dive. And again, you either are into the advanced metrics or you’re not, but that’s where the lines are originating (a la KenPom for CBB).

Tennessee with Henry: 6-2, DVOA 20 (weighted 17). Offense 16th, Defense 20th.

Without Henry: 6-3, DVOA 20 (weighted 13) Offense 20th, Defense 12th

Because the defense has been better, it is saying they have actually been a better team WITHOUT Henry. But it is still saying they always were an average team (as is Cincy by the numbers).

For better or worse I think the market and the metrics are saying these are almost even teams (slight advantage to Tenn as home field isn’t really 3 anymore). And now I think the money will continue to come in on Tenn and keep this more toward 3.5.

Edit: Sagarin indicates this spread (with home field should be -2.5 (-115). Again, not saying any of these are “right” lol. Just gives me pause on taking Tenn so easily.
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It’s really tough to gauge tenn’s season long offensive metrics because they haven’t been fully healthy practically all season, so you have to manually adjust. Which is what makes this game a bit trickier to cap imo
 
I wonder what analytics said about the parcels lead giants? Or even the Eli giants who knocked off pats greatest team?? Not saying they useless cause I think it would be just as foolish to dismiss them as it is to fully put faith in them. It a very grey world we live in! A quote I like is “everything is something, nothing is everything”, works for lots of things I think, I love as many tools as possible and all the newer analytic stats are great but outside of duct tape no 1 tool works great for every job!!! (Is duct tape a tool? It is in my house! Lol).
 
2daBank said:
I wonder what analytics said about the parcels lead giants? Or even the Eli giants who knocked off pats greatest team?? Not saying they useless cause I think it would be just as foolish to dismiss them as it is to fully put faith in them. It a very grey world we live in! A quote I like is “everything is something, nothing is everything”, works for lots of things I think, I love as many tools as possible and all the newer analytic stats are great but outside of duct tape no 1 tool works great for every job!!! (Is duct tape a tool? It is in my house! Lol).
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For the record lol. The 87 Giants had one of the best rush defenses in the history of DVOA and the 90 Giants were the best team in the league per DVOA despite the Bills being favored.

2007 will always be a freak of nature, no matter how you slice it.

I don’t live by these numbers. But there’s no denying I became a better handicapper when they started becoming readily available.
 
Capaholic said:
For the record lol. The 87 Giants had one of the best rush defenses in the history of DVOA and the 90 Giants were the best team in the league per DVOA despite the Bills being favored.

2007 will always be a freak of nature, no matter how you slice it.

I don’t live by these numbers. But there’s no denying I became a better handicapper when they started becoming readily available.
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Sweet, I was curious, I woulda thought they love bills that 1st year.. there no doubt they have merit, not trying to dismiss them, I use analytics capping every sport, even if I do think more have value in baseball, I’m not dismissing them as a tool but I am if they trying to paint a picture that titans are average, that hilarious, they been one the best 2/3 teams in afc the last several years. I’m quite confident there be no argument which team is the better and vastly more physical group up front on both sides the ball come Saturday afternoon. If they settle for fgs and burrow becomes a legend late maybe they lose but it ain’t gonna be cause cincy pushing them around.
 
I don't know how they calculate it, but I do look at FO "schedule" rankings. Throughout the year this combined with point differential helps me find overrated v. underrated. A few other sites that do strength of schedule has Bengals and Packers on the easier side of it. To be clear, just because someone had an easier schedule doesn't mean they suck. What it does mean is solely looking at top line data can skew perception. Knowing how Packers, Bucs, Bengals performed v. playoff teams or teams .500 or better is important.

1642534598508.png
 
Outside of the Chiefs, where the Bengals came back and Chase had a game of a lifetime....I wouldn't peg the Bengals as someone who competed with the better teams in the league. Titans on the other hand, somehow are always winning this year even when the data shows these teams even. I faded th1642535688677.pnge Titans a few times based on varying data and injuries but what I learned is Vrable is a bad ass as a HC.
 
rambler882 said:
Outside of the Chiefs, where the Bengals came back and Chase had a game of a lifetime....I wouldn't peg the Bengals as someone who competed with the better teams in the league. Titans on the other hand, somehow are always winning this year even when the data shows these teams even. I faded thView attachment 61383e Titans a few times based on varying data and injuries but what I learned is Vrable is a bad ass as a HC.
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I’ve thrown plenty of shade the titans way the last 3 years,, ask our resident titans fan im sure he remembers! I still have issues with them but I was dying for this to be the matchup for one reason only, cause I’m incredibly confident they are gonna whip the bengals at the LOS. There is no metric out there that can convince me otherwise and honestly I’m shocked it a debate. He a excellent coach and it because I know his team gonna be the more physical and prepared group come Saturday.
 
All that said I’m glad there disagreement. We almost never win when we all agree, even tho I think our group here is shaper than any as a collective!!
 
I don’t think I’m even gonna bet a prop in this game cause I def have concerns and unknowns with who getting the touches and how it plays out, I’m just confident in the one aspect I still believe the most important thing in deciding a fb game, no matter how much the game changes that stays the same.
 
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