Belmont Stakes Discussion

Man I am excited for this....that Preakness was so damn good. Part of me thinks he might be going down the way he faded a bit down the stretch and his speed numbers have gone down in each of his 3 races. Just don't love any of the other horses. Looking for a horse that didn't run the Preakness....
 
Fri Belmont R8 Win #8 and DD #8/5
Whitmore should sit a nice trip on outside and race is packed with early speed types so will have plenty of pace to close into, great setup
 
Play2win said:
I like Mott's horse in Belmont tomorrow. Any opinion? BOL on the action
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I like him too, and more importantly it appears he does too, a little more hype on him than I'd like though. I'll also try to use Vino Rosso, Tenfold and maybe Noble Indy. I do think Justify is a little vulnerable here, 6th race in less than 4 months, trying to get 12F is a tough question, but he does look good and may be the lone speed, if not pressed at all he may be able to hold on.

I don't know what to make of Mott's in the Met Mile, I do like Bee Jersey and Awesome Slew there
 
That last race was like watching the peloton reel in the leaders in the Tour de France
 
Play2win said:
I like Mott's horse in Belmont tomorrow. Any opinion? BOL on the action
Click to expand...
Lloyd Braun said:
I like him too, and more importantly it appears he does too, a little more hype on him than I'd like though. I'll also try to use Vino Rosso, Tenfold and maybe Noble Indy. I do think Justify is a little vulnerable here, 6th race in less than 4 months, trying to get 12F is a tough question, but he does look good and may be the lone speed, if not pressed at all he may be able to hold on.

I don't know what to make of Mott's in the Met Mile, I do like Bee Jersey and Awesome Slew there
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I'm also on board with trying to beat Justify, also liking Hofburg and Vino Rosso. As Lloyd mentions, the problem is who will press him a little bit for the first 10 furlongs. Hoping Todd lets Noble Indy stretch his legs, maybe Gronk too?
 
Gandolf said:
I'm also on board with trying to beat Justify, also liking Hofburg and Vino Rosso. As Lloyd mentions, the problem is who will press him a little bit for the first 10 furlongs. Hoping Todd lets Noble Indy stretch his legs, maybe Gronk too?
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Restoring Hope is the other that appears to have some early speed but can't imagine Baffert wants Florent pressing Justify
 
Looking at the card, toughest questions are what to do with the Dubai runners returning in the Jaipur and Met Mile, and what to do with the 3 year old Bolt D'oro taking on elders. Toss or use?
 
I toss Bolt in the Met Mile, just don't see it. If it sets up for a stalking style, which it may if Bee Jersey stops, then I'd rather have Ransom the Moon at twice the price
 
Looking at the form Jusitfy seems to be over the top and on a downward cycle. If he wins then so be it. But general rule of thumb is to play against this type of horse with descending speed figs two races in a row. Visually I thought Justify had a very soft pace scenario in the Preakness and Smith rode the hair off his mount to just hold on at the wire. If he wins at 3 or 4/5 then take my money... Leaning hard towards Bravazo and Vino Rosso... Bravazo on the win end and most likely ex box the two. Keying both to run first and third with some longer priced horses in the other slot... Best of luck today guys
 
Would think Noble Indy could keep the pace honest, but sadly he's also part owned by Win Star just like Justify. Can't really see him going and trying to compromise the chances of Justify.

Justify looks no worse for the wear. His gallops and work since the Preakness have been full of energy. i think he's just going to be able to loaf on the front end and gallop around there not have anyone threaten him.


$20 tri 1/7,10/4,7,8,10
$10 tri 1/4,7,8,10/7,10

$3 super 1/4,7,10/4,7,8,10/4,7,8,9,10
 
Kanthaka is a pretty big scratch in the Woddy Stephens. He figured to benefit the most from what looks like an obvious pace melt down.
 
I really think Blended Citizen is going to ruin a lot of tris and supers today. He can run all day. Big long stride. Doesn't have the turn of foot, but I think his grinding style will suit him well today.
 
Race 2 Pick 4: 2,6,7/4,6,7/3,5,7/2,3,4,9

Race 2: These 8.5F one turn races at Belmont are a special kind as they blur the line between a sprint and a route. I'll toss the last race for #2 Mask over the slop off a layoff, has shown an ability to go early or sit back a bit as he did in the debut, this is the type of versatility I want in this race, #6 Breaking the Rules is stretching out but does have some distance on the bottom half of his pedigree and Shug usually excels at stretching them out. #7 Dark Vader has a couple of races that put him right in the mix and Eurton has done pretty well shipping east.

Race 3: #6 Abel Tasman is the one to beat and Baffert and Smith numbers in NY last couple of years is off the charts, but what happened in her last, had some trouble early but then still ran kind of flat imo, will there enough speed in front of her with the scratch of American Gal, tough to toss but also can't single. #4 Pacific Wind seems to have upped her game since turning 4 and switch to Chad's barn, should get a nice stalking trip and shouldn't be pace compromised. #7 Unchained Melody appears to be the speed and has won 2 at this trip on this track, including last year's Mother Goose, if left alone on the lead could steal it at a price.

Race 4: #3 Monomoy Girl will be odds on and rightfully so as she has dominated this 3yo filly division, but if she doesn't bring her best then there a a couple of may be able to take advantage. ##Caledonia Road won the BC Juv Fillies last year and then got an extended break before coming back at the end of April for Ralph Nicks, doesn't really match up that well from a speed figure angle but she does win and will be able to pick up the pieces if they go too fast early on. The inverse to Caledonia Road is #7 Talk Veuve To Me a couple of real nice speed figures and this year against lesser but does seem to be improving and figures to be aggressive early with Jose up.

Race 5: #2 Hoppertunity is the known factor in the race and just got the 12F 2 back but he has shown some signs of slowing down at age 7. #3 Hard Study appears to be getting better as they stretch him out and has won 4 of his last 5 and he loves Belmont with a 4 3-1-0 record over the strip. Another improving colt is #4 Take Your Guns, bred to get the distance and 3rd off the layoff seems primed for this one at a decent price. #9 War Story won this race last year and appears to be coming into this year's edition in better form.
 
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Lloyd Braun said:
Race 2 Pick 4: 2,6,7/4,6,7/3,5,7/2,3,4,9

Race 2: These 8.5F one turn races at Belmont are a special kind as they blur the line between a sprint and a route. I'll toss the last race for #2 Mask over the slop off a layoff, has shown an ability to go early or sit back a bit as he did in the debut, this is the type of versatility I want in this race, #6 Breaking the Rules is stretching out but does have some distance on the bottom half of his pedigree and Shug usually excels at stretching them out. #7 Dark Vader has a couple of races that put him right in the mix and Eurton has done pretty well shipping east.

Race 3: #6 Abel Tasman is the one to beat and Baffert and Smith numbers in NY last couple of years is off the charts, but what happened in her last, had some trouble early but then still ran kind of flat imo, will there enough speed in front of her with the scratch of American Gal, tough to toss but also can't single. #4 Pacific Wind seems to have upped her game since turning 4 and switch to Chad's barn, should get a nice stalking trip and shouldn't be pace compromised. #7 Unchained Melody appears to be the speed and has one 2 at this trip on this track, including last year's Mother Goose, if left alone on the lead could steal it at a price.

Race 4: #3 Monomoy Girl will be odds on and rightfully so as she has dominated this 3yo filly division, but if she doesn't bring her best then there a a couple of may be able to take advantage. ##Caledonia Road won the BC Juv Fillies last year and then got an extended break before coming back at the end of April for Ralph Nicks, doesn't really match up that well from a speed figure angle but she does win and will be able to pick up the pieces if they go too fast early on. The inverse to Caledonia Road is #7 Talk Veuve To Me a couple of real nice speed figures and this year against lesser but does seem to be improving and figures to be aggressive early with Jose up.
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GL today bro
 
Just another Baffert horse...was afraid Prat kept him at the rail too long but obv long race, got bumped off pace making the move but that old horse still got it
 
Thx fellas, boxed 2,9 as well for a bit less so that was nice...a blind squirrel...

Taking the 7 here to win but going to box 5,7 as well for obvious reasons...problem I have with Stormy Liberal is the 1 gate in a short race. Haven't paid as much attention to the turf but I haven't seen the rail running well at all on the dirt. Good thing for Justify later is that 1.5 miles will give him time to get the hell off it.

And the point they just made about the ridiculous travel can't help
 
Threw the 4 in the exacta box as well, probably a dumb move but 8/1 seems a bit off
 
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