Breakdown from ESPN Insider ...
In what was probably the craziest college football weekend since the end of the 1998 season, four upsets of top-eight teams in the BCS standings changed the face of the national title race and momentarily stole the spotlight from Ohio State and Michigan.
It began on Thursday, when Rutgers knocked off then-No. 3 Louisville to become the lone undefeated team in the Big East. That result virtually guaranteed that a one-loss team will reach the BCS National Championship Game, and no team was in better position to get there than Texas, which had a commanding lead on the other once-beaten teams in both polls and seemingly the easiest remaining schedule among the contenders.
Current BCS Standings1. Ohio State 2. Michigan 3. USC 4. Florida 5. Notre Dame
Complete BCS standings But early last Saturday, No. 6 Auburn fell to unranked Georgia, which cleared the way for Florida to move up in the polls and close the gap on Texas. Just a few hours later, No. 8 Cal lost at unranked Arizona, and Florida came dangerously close to seeing its title hopes snuffed out by unranked South Carolina. The big surprise, though, came in prime time, when unranked Kansas State poured on the offense against the fifth-ranked Longhorns and came away with a 45-42 win.
Needing a timely penalty and three blocked kicks to survive the upset bid of the Gamecocks, the Gators figured to pay for it in the polls -- and they did. USC, on the strength of an impressive 35-10 win over Oregon, moved within eight points of Florida in the coaches' poll and passed the Gators to take over the No. 3 spot in the Harris poll. The rise in the polls combined with the Trojans' improved computer ratings vaulted USC to No. 3 in this week's BCS standings.
Florida isn't too far behind, but with its next two games against Western Carolina -- a weak I-AA team -- and slumping Florida State, the Gators won't have a chance to impress the voters or boost their computer ratings until the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 2. Meanwhile, USC can strengthen its lead by beating Cal and Notre Dame over the next two weeks. If the Trojans take care of the Bears on Saturday, they should move up to the coveted No. 2 spot behind the Michigan-Ohio State winner next Sunday.
It certainly seems that a spot in the national title game is now USC's to lose. The big question is whether Notre Dame is in the same boat. If the Irish go to Los Angeles and beat USC on Nov. 25, would they finish ahead of a one-loss SEC champion? Given the way voters are influenced by names and tradition, it's hard to imagine them not being in front of Arkansas. Who would get the nod between Notre Dame and Florida is anyone's guess. Either way, a team with a lot of clout would feel jilted by the system, inciting another major BCS controversy and even more cries for a playoff.
Although it's certainly not what the fans are looking for, the final three weeks of the season are really starting to take the shape of a playoff bracket. Saturday's Michigan-Ohio State game is essentially a national semifinal, with the winner earning a spot in the championship game. If USC beats Cal on Saturday, the following week's game between Notre Dame and USC could almost be like the other national semi. But if Cal beats USC, and the Trojans then beat the Irish, it's possible that the SEC Championship Game could serve as that other semifinal … if Florida and Arkansas are both there with 11-1 records.
There are fewer scenarios in play after this past weekend's upsets, but there are still plenty of possibilities in the race for the BCS title.
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Twice As Nice[/FONT]
One possibility that seemed unlikely a week ago was a national championship rematch between Ohio State and Michigan. But now that the number of once-beaten teams has dwindled significantly, it's easier to see how it could happen.
Let's start with a classic game on Saturday. If the Buckeyes and Wolverines go down to the wire, there's a chance. Anything less, and voters probably wouldn't allow a rematch to take place.
The next step is finding losses for USC, Florida, Notre Dame and Arkansas. USC would have to beat Notre Dame and fall to either Cal or UCLA. Arkansas could clinch the SEC West by beating Mississippi State, then lose to LSU, then beat Florida in the SEC title game. It's not that far fetched.
If this series of events took place, many people would say, "What about Rutgers?" If the Scarlet Knights are unbeaten at the end of the regular season, it's hard to believe enough voters would rank them ahead of the Michigan-OSU loser unless that game was lopsided. But if Saturday's big game doesn't live up to the hype, and the only other one-loss teams include Louisville, Wisconsin and Wake Forest, then Rutgers just might end up playing for all the marbles.
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Buckeyes No. 6?[/FONT]
The Michigan and Ohio State collision in Columbus features No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the polls and the BCS. But the Buckeyes and Wolverines are not 1 vs. 2 everywhere. According to the BCS computers -- at least by four of the six ratings -- the No. 2 team in the nation is Rutgers. And only one of the six computers has Ohio State ranked No. 1. Three have the Buckeyes third, and one computer has them sixth!
Here's the reason. If you really look closely, and keep in mind that the computer ratings are not allowed to factor margin of victory, Ohio State's only impressive win this season is at Texas. And with the Longhorns losing again last Saturday, that suddenly isn't as strong as it was before. Most of the computers consider each team's best win (in addition to winning percentage and schedule strength) to help separate teams with similar numbers. Using this method, Rutgers ranks ahead of Ohio State because Louisville (the best team beaten by Rutgers) is considered to be stronger than Texas. But I'm not about to try to explain how the Buckeyes got that one No. 6 ranking.
Jim Tressel might even put that on the bulletin board.
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BCS Bronco Busting[/FONT]
It's not a done deal yet, but Boise State has now reached the top 12 of the BCS Standings, which is where it needs to finish to gain a spot in a major bowl game.
The key word there is "finish." After this past Saturday's scare at San Jose State, you can be sure it will be quite a challenge for BSU to win at Nevada in the final game of the season. But if the Broncos beat the Wolf Pack, their BCS dreams should come true. Even if they get jumped from behind and drop out of the top 12, they have a good chance to finish ahead of the ACC champion, which is all they need to do in order to qualify. Wake Forest, the highest-ranked ACC team, currently sits at No. 16 in the standings.
Brad Edwards is a college football researcher at ESPN. His Road to the BCS appears weekly during the season.
