Interesting season as always...
Pretty happy with my RSW selections. I posted Detroit right away and that will go down with the Shoehei HR prop that one year as the easiest season-long prop winner I have ever had.
I added the Clippers RSW just before the ASB and they promptly went on a losing streak. Typical Reno. They played great the last 4 weeks and won that by a few games thankfully.
The rest of the season was the usual ups and downs. I found very good success on 2nd half totals the first 2/3 of the year. Now, next year I need to stick to just that. The rest of the live bets and props were an average proposition this year.
I believe I posted my Memphis and Indiana futures last summer and in the thread. I have added a few for shits n giggles throughout the season. Teams I will be rooting for this postseason follow...
Indiana
Memphis (lol)
LA Clippers
New York
Houston
Detroit
The serious adds there are New York and LA Clippers. Yes, I still believe this championship comes down to Boston, Cleveland, and Ok City. With that being said, I see value in both. Credit to Spek on that LA Clippers look that got me involved in that one more.
Detroit bet is the cost of a cheeseburger and for fun.
My goal in this thread is to give daily thoughts on upcoming series and also the nightly action. I will have a few targeted ideas each series (remember Knicks TT's vs Pacers last year for reference).
Series bets are what we will start with here:
LA Lakers Series -195 (Betonline)
So, I had to recap this one a bit. Initially, this was going to be a bit of a bigger bet. I have this priced around -220. I understand why the price is lower though with how Minnesota played the last 25% of the season. They won 17 out of 21 to finish and have a top 5-6 differential this season.
Overall, this wasn't the season that the Wolves wanted. In my opinion, the Towns trade was a net negative. I say that as a pretty big Donte fan. They simply took a step back this year. Ant Man didn't exactly take that next step as the NBA's best player -- which many of us hoped he would. Ant was much more consistent the last 3-4 weeks. Prior to that he had too many 30 one night and 15 the next type games. He fell in love with the 3 as well this season. With all this said, his playoffs vs Denver a few years ago was outstanding and I think some lessons were learned last year as well.
Now, I think that in a playoff setting the Lakers will be able to score more efficiently than the Wolves. I like the myriad of weapons here and the Lakers defense didn't collapse as badly as I thought it could after the trade. Luka feels much more comfortable and Lebron had a nice rest there at the end of the season to prep for a playoff run. The stretch to end of February and into March showed what they are capable of. Now, they are more comfortable with each other.
The Lakers aren't a championship team in my opinion, but they could sneak into the WCF's with how this path is set up.
This should be a fun series with a legend on one court and two of the very best renewing their rivalry from last year's conference finals.
There was a match-up back at the end of February that I watched intently. I must have been trying for a middle or something. Anyway, I remember thinking about this match as a possible 4/5 first-round series. The noticeable thing I remember is the Lakers controlling the boards post-AD. Now, there was no Rudy, so that is big but LA took it to them on the glass. Just a thought to remember during this series and one I'll track closely.
The key player in this series will be Austin Reeves -- likely the difference maker.
Lakers in 6.
*Subject to change -- I will live bet a series
Some other quick series prices...
I will dig in deep on Stons and Knicks Thursday night...
I have the Pacers favored in this series but was quite surprised they are over 2:1 favs here. That doesn't mean I am betting on Milwaukee, I simply surprised at the pricing. I felt like this was a -140/+110 type of opener. Indiana wins this one in 6 games I believe.
I saw LA Clippers at -113 Sunday night and now that is up to -128/-130. I think the public is seeing what these guys can do with a full squad. A national TV game to end the series only helps. I like them to beat Denver but will wait until after G1 to make a series play (if any at all). The Nuggets have the best player on the court, but the Clippers have the better team and a much better defense. The late-season firings are quite interesting. I simply don't think Denver has the depth to win in the playoffs. They need "Bubble Murray" to have a chance. This should be a tremendous series. I am thinking Clips in 6 as of now.
Knick's price makes sense. I do think the Stons win 1-2 games but this is a New York series. More to come on this one...
'
Pretty happy with my RSW selections. I posted Detroit right away and that will go down with the Shoehei HR prop that one year as the easiest season-long prop winner I have ever had.
I added the Clippers RSW just before the ASB and they promptly went on a losing streak. Typical Reno. They played great the last 4 weeks and won that by a few games thankfully.
The rest of the season was the usual ups and downs. I found very good success on 2nd half totals the first 2/3 of the year. Now, next year I need to stick to just that. The rest of the live bets and props were an average proposition this year.
I believe I posted my Memphis and Indiana futures last summer and in the thread. I have added a few for shits n giggles throughout the season. Teams I will be rooting for this postseason follow...
Indiana
Memphis (lol)
LA Clippers
New York
Houston
Detroit
The serious adds there are New York and LA Clippers. Yes, I still believe this championship comes down to Boston, Cleveland, and Ok City. With that being said, I see value in both. Credit to Spek on that LA Clippers look that got me involved in that one more.
Detroit bet is the cost of a cheeseburger and for fun.
My goal in this thread is to give daily thoughts on upcoming series and also the nightly action. I will have a few targeted ideas each series (remember Knicks TT's vs Pacers last year for reference).
Series bets are what we will start with here:
LA Lakers Series -195 (Betonline)
So, I had to recap this one a bit. Initially, this was going to be a bit of a bigger bet. I have this priced around -220. I understand why the price is lower though with how Minnesota played the last 25% of the season. They won 17 out of 21 to finish and have a top 5-6 differential this season.
Overall, this wasn't the season that the Wolves wanted. In my opinion, the Towns trade was a net negative. I say that as a pretty big Donte fan. They simply took a step back this year. Ant Man didn't exactly take that next step as the NBA's best player -- which many of us hoped he would. Ant was much more consistent the last 3-4 weeks. Prior to that he had too many 30 one night and 15 the next type games. He fell in love with the 3 as well this season. With all this said, his playoffs vs Denver a few years ago was outstanding and I think some lessons were learned last year as well.
Now, I think that in a playoff setting the Lakers will be able to score more efficiently than the Wolves. I like the myriad of weapons here and the Lakers defense didn't collapse as badly as I thought it could after the trade. Luka feels much more comfortable and Lebron had a nice rest there at the end of the season to prep for a playoff run. The stretch to end of February and into March showed what they are capable of. Now, they are more comfortable with each other.
The Lakers aren't a championship team in my opinion, but they could sneak into the WCF's with how this path is set up.
This should be a fun series with a legend on one court and two of the very best renewing their rivalry from last year's conference finals.
There was a match-up back at the end of February that I watched intently. I must have been trying for a middle or something. Anyway, I remember thinking about this match as a possible 4/5 first-round series. The noticeable thing I remember is the Lakers controlling the boards post-AD. Now, there was no Rudy, so that is big but LA took it to them on the glass. Just a thought to remember during this series and one I'll track closely.
The key player in this series will be Austin Reeves -- likely the difference maker.
Lakers in 6.
*Subject to change -- I will live bet a series
Some other quick series prices...
I will dig in deep on Stons and Knicks Thursday night...
I have the Pacers favored in this series but was quite surprised they are over 2:1 favs here. That doesn't mean I am betting on Milwaukee, I simply surprised at the pricing. I felt like this was a -140/+110 type of opener. Indiana wins this one in 6 games I believe.
I saw LA Clippers at -113 Sunday night and now that is up to -128/-130. I think the public is seeing what these guys can do with a full squad. A national TV game to end the series only helps. I like them to beat Denver but will wait until after G1 to make a series play (if any at all). The Nuggets have the best player on the court, but the Clippers have the better team and a much better defense. The late-season firings are quite interesting. I simply don't think Denver has the depth to win in the playoffs. They need "Bubble Murray" to have a chance. This should be a tremendous series. I am thinking Clips in 6 as of now.
Knick's price makes sense. I do think the Stons win 1-2 games but this is a New York series. More to come on this one...
'