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Does Jokic have any gas left in tank? Mfer looks tired. Far as the dimes I think that prob the most impressive thing okc been doing, havnt let him get close to dd assist this series and I think nuggets almost gotta have his assist even more than the shooting cause outside Murray nobody on that starting 5 is creating their own shots.
 
Denver offense strategy+ OKC defense been a recipe this comeback.

Maybe Nugs right the ship but I'll take better D at home late in a game plus money.
 
Braun was doing a bit of everything in the first quarter.

Then his shot went south in the last part of the 2nd quarter.

I think he missed 3 triples during that 2nd quarter stint. He had an open one late in the half but wouldn't fire.

Understood on that.

Anyways, 3-10 at the half but well on his way to the PRA over.

He took 2 more shots the rest of the game.

Yes, 3rd quarter was Bubble Murray time. Jamal was cooking but when he does get into a heater, he's ball dominant. So, assists are not a thing.

Another aspect of this bet and Joker assists bets is how well OKC shuts down those cutting lines !!

Glad to hit OKC. That covers the prop bet.

Now, unposted, I had a live Denver TT of 107.

Yes, I knew game would tighten late. With the fact I needed 21 to push in the 4th I decided to let it ride.

Whoops.

So, overall down the juice of prop and TT.

My dream was a Braun three on Denver's last possession for a huge swing!

Bottom line -- Pacers advance! The +5000 is alive!!

Back in the morning with thoughts, heading back to PGA Champ capping.
 
Murray PRA o28.5 -115 2.5 units

Bubble Murray was back at it the other night...as much as I think the role players will be better tonight I also expect Jamal to be heavily involved here...

Big game players... Big moments...

He averages 31+ PRA in the regular season.

Screenshot_20250515-201255.png


I played this before knowing he's sick. Oh well. This is an elimination game!

Feels like a game he could get this just with points but at worst we see a 23-5-5 kinda like.
 
Murray PRA o28.5 -115 2.5 units

Bubble Murray was back at it the other night...as much as I think the role players will be better tonight I also expect Jamal to be heavily involved here...

Big game players... Big moments...

He averages 31+ PRA in the regular season.

View attachment 97063


I played this before knowing he's sick. Oh well. This is an elimination game!

Feels like a game he could get this just with points but at worst we see a 23-5-5 kinda like.
The beauty of this is I was capping for 35-40 mins and never saw the illness until I had submitted the bet.

Let's overcome!
 
Alright,

Bubble Murray with 9 points and 2 assists with 6 mins left in the 1st quarter.

We need 18 more PRA in somewhere between 30-42 game mins...

LFG
 
Alright,

Bubble Murray with 9 points and 2 assists with 6 mins left in the 1st quarter.

We need 18 more PRA in somewhere between 30-42 game mins...

LFG
11-2-1 for = 14 PRA through one quarter.

We simply need 15 more.

I'll be satisfied with 20 at HT.
 
Crazy the points/assists was 23.5 before tip given those stats. That woulda been worth a play even if he puked on the court in warmups.
 
Braun with 15 pra already.

Role players at home...

And Murray with an extra rest this quarter.

RUHROE.

Going to possibly need a scoring burst from Jamal.
 
Alright,

I need 1 point, rebound or assist in the last 18 mins of this game.

You never know but happy with the position, no doubt.
 
I'll explain this more at half but dipping in a bit early tonight... On the side...


Live OKC ML -200
So, at the point of this OKC was aggressive ajd drawing fouls. On defense, they were everywhere .

Then Randle n company started making 3s from everywhere.

Conversely, the Minny length has frustrated the OKC offense.

The points in paint is 22-4.

SGA should settle down.

Still might buy back but I do not have my position.

As far as the under -- I have 127 points to play with -- a middle still in play as well.
 
Didn't get a chance to post my live action but I'm pretty happy with the results totals wise..

As far as the series goes -- my heart wants NY and my pocketbook leans Indy.

This is the ideal start with the futures --

Recap

I have Pacers +5000 and Knicks +3300 for the championship.

So, Pacers are the better result one would think.

You have to take into account who will fare better in the finals vs the Western Conference winner as well.

I'll take this though.

Long series coming. I think we see another G7 at MSG like last year...
 
Didn't get a chance to post my live action but I'm pretty happy with the results totals wise..

As far as the series goes -- my heart wants NY and my pocketbook leans Indy.

This is the ideal start with the futures --

Recap

I have Pacers +5000 and Knicks +3300 for the championship.

So, Pacers are the better result one would think.

You have to take into account who will fare better in the finals vs the Western Conference winner as well.

I'll take this though.

Long series coming. I think we see another G7 at MSG like last year...
I don't know which of the ECF teams will be better suited for whoever wins WCF tbh... I think Minny probably the best in the league to match the Thunder, so if they can't stop them...
I can say that if OKC tactic from Game 1 in WCF would have tried on Indiana in Game 1 of ECF it would have ended up 50 points beating by Pacers :)
 
My angle will likely be to maximize the hedge.

Series Price will be huge and frankly I need an early win by the EC team to really get it going.

I'll have plans though for profit goals and whatnot as we come closer.
 
My angle will likely be to maximize the hedge.

Series Price will be huge and frankly I need an early win by the EC team to really get it going.

I'll have plans though for profit goals and whatnot as we come closer.
What are the odds you took on Pacers and Knicks to win in normal numbers? ;)
 
So you already in great spot when the Finals begin, no matter who wins ECF!
You can probably take Knicks now for the ECF series, to balance the odds completely for the season...
 
So you already in great spot when the Finals begin, no matter who wins ECF!
You can probably take Knicks now for the ECF series, to balance the odds completely for the season...
Yeah, this is a relax and bet independently series!

Very good point!
 
Home tonight so imma posting...

Been scouring the prop market but not finding as much as I thought I would -- which is a good thing.

Ant most definitely can have a big boy game tonight. Betting that though is more hope than results. He's had 5 very average games vs Ok City this season...

He's now 29-79 in those 5 games from the field.

I certainly am not taking his under though!

The role players will be better imo..

Dante, Naz and the cousin shot 7-36 overall including 5-28 from 3 point range.

I want to say Naz bounces back -- but I wanted the points at 9.5 and that's not available.

Naz threes are 1.5 but -164. Hefty tariff there although I think he has a good shot to go over.

Dante is at 2.5 threes. The bottom line with him is he won't be discouraged from shooting and is one of the few Minnesota guys willing to drive the other night. His points is at 10.5 which is a bit higher than I want though... So passing on that. My target for an over was 10.5.

So many of these players on both teams are up n down and that makes props harder.

One more guy I don't mind in props is Conley fwiw...

Plus, both teams have a lot of contributions that are spread out.

I'll go back a bit and have decided after more research that Naz is my guy. He's gotten the looks all year vs OKC (he also averaged many more mins back during the season series). I expect the Thunder game plan heavy again for Julius and Ant.


Naz Reid o1.5 Threes -156

*Dropped as I entered it just now
 
I still like unders on this series.

217 isn't the adjustment I expected.

Yes, pace is prevalent but the defense is just better than the pace both ways.

I'll stalk tonight but don't be surprised at some live under action.
 
Probably regret not touching Dante...

Darn it.

I was close, very close.

Naz with a few buckets inside but missed both 3s so far.

The other role guys making their 3s so far (hyphen cousin and Dante)
 
Man can't believe I had hubs on ignore for all this time for something petty. Worst ignore of my CTG lifeline
 
Still a chance he hits 2 in the second half but I made the wrong pick tonight.

3 fouls in 10 mins
2 bricked threes.

Just, argh.

I started staking Donte live but nothing I want to add now at worse pricing.

I'll stick to side n total stalks.

More efficiency tonight -- very interesting to see how OKC adjusts this time at half.

TEN total fouls with 4:34 left in the half.

Minnesota zero FTs.

OKC 6.

I appreciate the umps letting this flow so far -- that likely changes.
 
I indicated under stalk pregame.

That's not out the window.

But, I see many more fouls + free throws this half.

Still, the 2h was priced much higher pregame and is staying right there.

First 6 of the 3rd might bring a play to fruition... Or at least the first half of a middle.
 
So,

I didn't do this and it wouldn't have been prudent --

But I was looking at exactas on OKC to beat NY and Indy so I could start hedging the future a bit today.

Both were plus money.

That won't be the case if they finish this off.
 
I still like unders on this series.

217 isn't the adjustment I expected.

Yes, pace is prevalent but the defense is just better than the pace both ways.

I'll stalk tonight but don't be surprised at some live under action.

I was thinking along same lines, lost under gm2, I did hit okc tho. Man it was so close to being right on the number after every qrtr, guess it just barely went over but every qrtr played between 54-57 I think, so guess it was a really good number. I’d think more than scoring for twolves to get into series would take a better defensive effort. Can’t really see the wolves offense exploding on okc d. Of course I don’t think this gonna be much a series, feels like a gentleman’s sweep to me.
 
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